世界核协会2011核燃料市场报告综述

本文介绍了世界核协会(WNA)最新发布的世界核燃料市场报告,分析比较了WNA2011与WNA2009的情景预测变化,指出至2030年前需求增量由中、印领跑,供给增量大半来自非洲,供需形势总体平衡。     

核能、可再生能源执掌未来

正《巴黎协定》极有可能推动新一轮可再生能源投资热潮。尽管核电站发生了一些令人惊骇的事故,尽管以德国为代表的一些国家宣布将彻底放弃核电,但在低碳语境下核能在安全性提高的情况下,其高效性、清洁性仍颇受世人青睐。据国际原子能机构(IAEA)预计,未来10年,除中国外,全球约有60~70台100万千瓦级核电机组建设。世界核能协会(WNA)统计数据显示,到2030年,全球     

全球大力发展核电

核能依然是保障电力供应和降低二氧化碳排放方面的有效选择。石油和天然气价格狂升促使发达国家视核电为经济复兴之依靠，也使一些快速发展国家如中国、印度、南非等国把核电作为获取能源的渠道。据世界核能协会（WNA）最新统计数据，2005年全球共有442座核反应堆并网，并供电16％。全球共拟建222座核反应堆，其中有62座核电站在建，160座处于待建中，这样一来全球核电功率增加了一半，达580GW。     

全球天然气的生产与消费

<正>欧洲、北美和亚太地区是天然气主要消费地,最近几年,北美、中东和亚太地区消费量逐年增加。2014年,世界天然气产量增长1.6%,2014年天然气消费量仅增长0.4%,产量增长是消费量增长的4倍。除北美洲之外,世界其他区域天然气产量增长均低于平均水平,美国(+6.1%)达到历史最大增量,俄罗斯经历了历史最大降幅(-4.3%)。除北美和中东外,世界其他地区天然气消费量增长均低于平均水平,美国(+2.9%)是消费增量最大的国家,欧洲经历了历史最大降幅(-11.6%)。     

基于机会约束规划的增量配电网接入规划

增量配电网接入公用电网的选址影响其投资经济性与主网的安全稳定性,针对这一问题,首先阐述了增量配电网内分布式电源出力与负荷的随机性,兼顾了增量配电网接入的经济性、可靠性与稳定性,分别从增量配电网与主体电网的角度搭建了增量配电网的选址规划模型与评价模型。其次,采用了机会约束规划来处理源、荷的不确定性,在此基础上,将机会约束规划采用分解的方法进行线性化。最后,对改进的IEEE 33节点系统进行仿真实验,分析了增量配电网的选址规划结果与存量配电网的评价。结果表明：增量配电网的投资用户更倾向选择较近的联络线接入,节约其线路架设成本,提高其供电可靠性;主体电网则更期望从配电网的末端提高电压质量。     

世界可再生能源开发现状和趋势(上)

一可再生能源继续显著增长2010年可再生能源仍是快速增长的一年。2011年6月8日BP公司发布的《2011年世界能源统计报告》称,2010年全球生物质燃料的产量同比增长13.8%,主要来自于美国和巴西。可再生能源电力(包括风能、太阳能、地热能和生物质能)同比增长15.5%,其中经合组织国家(OECD)占据了大多数的增量,而中国可再生能源电力同比增长75%,增量仅次于美国。可再生能源占到全球能源消费总量的1.8%,在过去的十年中所占比例已     

BP报告：中国能源消费增速5年最慢

6月16日，英国石油公司（BP）发布的年度权威报告《2014世界能源统计年鉴》显示，在全球能源消费增速有所反弹的当下，中国石油需求日增量却出现了五年来的最慢增速。 报告指出，尽管中国在2013年的能源消费总量在所有新兴国家中位居第一，达每日1080万桶。但是，39万桶的需求日增量却是五年来的最慢速度。目前，中国能源需求与经济发展出现错配现象——2013年能源需求增速为4．7％，但GDP却增长了7.7％。     

基于微分跟踪器光伏最大功率跟踪优化控制

光伏发电是一非线性系统,针对光伏系统易受电网工作方式和工作环境的影响,在分析电导增量法的基础上,利用MATLAB/Simulink搭建了光伏阵列数学模型,针对传统电导增量法存在跟踪速度慢及误判的问题,采用微分-跟踪器方法,对电导增量法进行改进优化。仿真结果表明,采用微分-跟踪器改进后的电导增量法能够快速、准确地跟踪光伏系统最大功率,能够有效抑制各种扰动,减少了误判几率,系统的动态性能及稳定性都优于常规电导增量法,从而提高了系统的鲁棒性。     

地球村环境下的能源挑战

进入21世纪以来，全球能源领域正在发生着两个重大的转移，一是能源消费的重心由OECD国家转向发展中国家。IEA预计，从2008年至2035年，能源消费增量的80％来自于发展中国家，中国和印度将占增量的一半，仅中国就占了增量的30％。二是向新能源可再生能源投资的增量超过常规能源投资的增量。     

上海地区增量配电网运营机制政策及案例分析

上海公司作为传统配电网运营企业面临着复杂的外部形势,通过调研国家及上海增量配电网相关政策,讨论了增量配电网的宏观政策形势。分析了增量配电网具体业务情况,从试点发展情况来看,目前上海地区增量配电网运营情况进度较慢,阻碍较多。以上海石化暂供电区域为试点,结合运营模式、经营管理和治理体系的研究成果,提出了上海石化暂供电区域的运营方案。     

Global oil depletion: A review of the evidence

Within the polarised and contentious debate over future oil supply a growing number of commentators are forecasting a near term peak and subsequent decline in production. But although liquid fuels form the foundation of modern industrial economies, the growing debate on ‘peak oil’ has relatively little influence on energy and climate policy. With this in mind, the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) has conducted an independent, thorough and systematic review of the evidence, with the aim of establishing the current state of knowledge, identifying key uncertainties and improving consensus. The study focuses upon the physical depletion of conventional oil in the period to 2030 and includes an in-depth literature review, analysis of industry databases and a detailed comparison of global supply forecasts. This Communication summarises the main findings of the UKERC study. A key conclusion is that a peak of conventional oil production before 2030 appears likely and there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020.     

Analysis of renewable energy development to power generation in the United States

Renewable energy resources have historically played a small role for electricity generation in the US. However, concerns such as security of energy supply, limitations and price fluctuations of fossil fuels, and threats of climate changes have encouraged US policy makers to think and debate about diversification strategy in the energy supply and promotion of renewables. The current paper discusses the role of renewable portfolio in the US energy action plan during 2010–2030. A system dynamics model is constructed to evaluate different costs of renewable energy utilization by 2030. Results show that while renewables will create a market with near 10 billion $ worth (in the costs level) in 2030, the total value of renewable energy promotion and utilization in the US will be more than 170 billion $(in the costs level) during 2010–2030.     

A nuclear-powered North Africa: Just a desert mirage or is there something on the horizon?

All of the North African countries have plans to develop nuclear power. If successful, nuclear energy could supply up to 9–15% of all electricity consumption in the region by 2030. How realistic are these plans and under what conditions can they be implemented? This paper seeks to answer this question by analyzing the motivations and capacities for deploying nuclear energy in the five North African countries by examining both regional and national factors. These factors are compared to similar characteristics of the countries with existing nuclear power programs using a series of quantitative indicators. While all five countries have strong motivations to develop nuclear power, which result from the high growth rates in demand for electricity and energy security concerns, their financial and institutional capacities to deploy nuclear energy vary and are generally lower than in those countries which already operate nuclear power plants. Most likely, North Africa will need to rely on external assistance to implement its nuclear energy plans. The article identifies three scenarios of nuclear power development from the interplay between internal and external factors, particularly the success of renewable energy projects and the ability to attract international investment in nuclear power.     

Comparative economics of the breeder and light water reactor

The issue of breeder timing is studied in this article via a breakeven analysis in which the key driving variables are conveniently segregated into two groups, with uranium price providing the linkage. In one group, the technical and cost characteristics of reactors and fuel cycles determine the uranium breakeven price. In the other group, nuclear demand projections and the uranium supply schedule determine the time paths of uranium price for a given composition of reactor types. The author finds that, even if proliferation risk is ignored, the breeder is not economically competitive with a 30%-improved once-through light water reactor before the year 2030 in the USA and in the world outside communist areas as a whole in 90% of the cases examined. In the exceptional cases, the penalty of delaying commercial breeder introduction to 2030 is small and well within the noise level of longterm energy planning.     

Formulating an optimal long-term energy supply strategy for Syria using MESSAGE model

An optimal long-term energy supply strategy has been formulated based on minimizing the total system costs for the entire study period 2003–2030. The national energy chain was modelled covering all energy levels and conversion technologies. The results indicate that the primary energy will grow at annual average rate of 4.8% arriving 68 Mtoe in 2030. The total installed electric capacity will be optimally expanded from 6885 to 19500 MW in 2030. Furthermore, to ensure supply security the future national energy system will rely mainly upon oil and natural gas (NG) with limited contribution of renewables and nuclear to the end of study period. The share of NG will increase gradually up to 2020 and then retreat. Owing to the continuous decrease of oil production, oil export is expected to vanish in 2012 and the country will import about 63% of its primary energy demand in 2030. Thus, the expected long-term development of national energy sector indicates a hard challenge for the future national economy.     

Special issue: innovative nuclear energy technology

Nuclear energy plays an important role in the long-term energy mix.According to World Nuclear Association(WNA),the nuclear power installation in China will appr...     

南通市水资源供需平衡与承载力研究

近年来,江苏省南通市水质性缺水和季节性缺水问题严重制约了社会经济的发展。为实现可持续发展,利用2015、2020、2030规划年南通市用水和供水系统的水量数据,分析了水资源供需平衡,建立了水资源承载力模型,并以总人口数为目标函数,求解最优化目标。最后通过情景模拟,探讨了不同组合(水量、水质、供水季节)、不同阶段的水资源承载力。结果表明,未来南通市水资源将出现超载情况,2015年可能出现水质性缺水问题;2020年水质问题有所改善,季节性缺水逐渐出现;2030年季节性缺水问题凸显。     

Japan's new basic energy plan

In June 2010, the Japanese cabinet adopted a new Basic Energy Plan (BEP). This was the third such plan that the government has approved since the passage of the Basic Act on Energy Policy in 2002, and it represents the most significant statement of Japanese energy policy in more than four years, since the publication of the New National Energy Strategy (NNES) in 2006. Perhaps more than its predecessors, moreover, the new plan establishes a number of ambitious targets as well as more detailed measures for achieving those targets. Among the targets are a doubling of Japan's “energy independence ratio,” a doubling of the percentage of electricity generated by renewable sources and nuclear power, and a 30 percent reduction in energy-related CO₂ emissions, all by 2030. This paper explains the origins of the 2010 BEP and why it was adopted. It then describes the content of the plan and how it differs from the NNES. A third section analyzes the appropriateness of the new goals and targets contained in the BEP and their feasibility, finding that achievement of many of the targets was likely to be quite challenging even before the March 2011 earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis.     

Convergence of energy productivity in Australian states and territories: Determinants and forecasts

The Australian government has recently launched a National Energy Productivity Plan that calls for a 40% increase in energy productivity (economic output divided by energy use) before 2030. Improving energy productivity would help boost economic competitiveness, reduce energy costs, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions in Australia. Understanding energy productivity dynamics at the state level is essential for the success of this program. This research analyses the convergence path of energy productivity in Australian states and territories. Club convergence analysis applied to data over the period 1990–2015 reveals two converging energy productivity clubs. Initial energy productivity, industry structure, and automobile fuel prices are important determinants of higher energy productivity. Based on Australian state energy productivity forecasts to 2030, New South Wales and Victoria will be the forerunners in maintaining higher energy productivity in 2030. Australia will not achieve a 40% increase in energy productivity before 2030 without significant changes to its fuel mix and industry structure.