Structural equation modeling the use of a risk assessment instrument in child protective services

Risk assessment instruments have been developed to help human service workers identify risk factors associated with abusive families. Many such instruments have been incorporated into management information systems in the form of Decision Support Systems (DSS). This paper reports findings from a case study that evaluated a risk assessment instrument as a decision support tool. Respondents considered “usefulness” of the information a more important factor than how easy the system was to use, the configuration of reports or whether the system was up or not. Focus groups were used to explore how to increase the usefulness of the information.     

An optimization decision support approach for risk analysis of carbon emission trading in electric power systems

Concerns over dramatic increasing electricity demand, exacerbating power shortage and changing climatic condition are emerging associated with municipal electric power systems (EPS). In this study, a risk-explicit mixed-integer full-infinite programming (RMFP) approach is developed for planning carbon emission trading (CET) in EPS. RMFP-CET has advantages in risk reflection and policy analysis, particularly when the input parameters are provided as crisp and functional intervals as well as probabilistic distributions. The developed method is applied to a real case study of CET planning of EPS in Beijing. Various electricity policies are incorporated within the modeling formulation for enhancing the RMFP-CET's capability. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated, which are useful for making decisions of electricity production and supply as well as gaining insight into the tradeoffs among electricity supply risk, system cost, and CO₂ mitigation strategy.     

Managing emergencies and abnormal situations in air traffic control (part II): Teamwork strategies

Team performance has been studied in many safety-critical organizations including aviation, nuclear power plant, offshore oil platforms and health organizations. This study looks into teamwork strategies that air traffic controllers employ to manage emergencies and abnormal situations. Two field studies were carried out in the form of observations of simulator training in emergency and unusual scenarios of novices and experienced controllers. Teamwork strategies covered aspects of team orientation and coordination, information exchange, change management and error handling. Several performance metrics were used to rate the efficiency of teamwork and test the construct validity of a prototype model of teamwork. This is a companion study to an earlier investigation of taskwork strategies in the same field (part I) and contributes to the development of a generic model for Taskwork and Teamwork strategies in Emergencies in Air traffic Management (T²EAM). Suggestions are made on how to use T²EAM to develop training programs, assess team performance and improve mishap investigations.     

Managing emergencies and abnormal situations in air traffic control (part I): Taskwork strategies

A lot of research in Air Traffic Control (ATC) has focused on human errors in decision making whilst little attention has been paid to the cognitive strategies employed by controllers in managing abnormal situations. This study looks into cognitive strategies in taskwork that enable controllers to become resilient decision-makers. Two field studies were carried out where novice and experienced controllers were observed in simulator training in emergency and unusual scenarios. A prototype model of taskwork strategies in air traffic management was developed and its construct validity was tested in the context of the field studies. A companion study (part II), follows that investigates aspects of teamwork in the same field and contributes to the development of a generic model of Taskwork & Teamwork strategies in Emergencies in Air traffic Management (T²EAM). The final section addresses the difficulties experienced by novice controllers and explains taskwork strategies employed by experts to manage uncertainty and balance workload in simulator emergencies.     

A computer-based system for risk management support

The scale and complexity of present day industrial operations involving hazardous substances are such that managers are faced with increasingly demanding decision problems. They must simultaneously consider technological, economic, environmental and sociopolitical factors. As a response to this problem a computer based decision support system is being developed to support risk management activities, with special emphasis given to hazardous chemicals. The IRIMS (Ispra Risk Management Support) system is an attempt to integrate a number of data bases, containing information relevant to risk management, with several existing simulation models which can be used to address problems of environmental assessment, risk analysis and system optimisation. The system is designed to be user friendly and results are displayed through high resolution colour graphics allowing the non specialised user to obtain a “feel” for the problem under investigation. The paper describes the current prototype system, which is geared to handle problems on a European scale, and plans for further developments which will allow more detailed studies on particular countries or regions.     

Drivers' Mental Representation of Travel Time and Departure Time Choice in Uncertain Traffic Network Conditions

The decisions drivers make, such as choice of route or departure time, constitute typical decision making under uncertainty. Drivers' decision making has been studied within the framework of expected utility theory. However, empirical decisional phenomena violating the premise of expected utility theory have been observed repeatedly. These findings have indicated that decision making is critically affected by the decision frame. It has also been pointed out that the uncertainty of outcome is perceived as an interval of possible resultant values. Based on these findings, we propose hypotheses that: (1) a driver perceives an uncertain travel time as an interval, and (2) a driver decides on a departure time based on a decision frame edited by this interval. To test these hypotheses, we collected data on drivers' departure time choice behavior, n = 335. Decisional phenomena found in this study confirm our hypotheses.     

Accident history,risk perception and traffic safe behaviour

Abstract

This study clarifies the associations between accident history, perception of the riskiness of road travel and traffic safety behaviours by taking into account the number and severity of accidents experienced. A sample of 525 road users in Cameroon answered a questionnaire comprising items on perception of risk, safe behaviour and personal accident history. Participants who reported involvement in more than three accidents or involvement in a severe accident perceived road travel as less risky and also reported behaving less safely compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. The results have practical implications for the prevention of traffic accidents.

Practitioner Summary: The associations between accident history, perceived risk of road travel and safe behaviour were investigated using self-report questionnaire data. Participants involved in more than three accidents, or in severe accidents, perceived road travel as less risky and also reported more unsafe behaviour compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. Campaigns targeting people with a less serious, less extensive accident history should aim to increase awareness of hazards and the potential severity of their consequences, as well as emphasising how easy it is to take the recommended preventive actions. Campaigns targeting those involved in more frequent accidents, and survivors of serious accidents, should address feelings of invulnerability and helplessness.     

Mental strain and the problem of repeated measurements

In the past, stress and strain arising from the execution of mentally demanding tasks have been measured by means of surveys. Such methods require repeated investigation of the individual perceptions and valuations during task fulfilment to record time-dependent changes in strain levels. However, it is possible that the individual measurement procedures employed in surveys-as artefacts-may cause a change in the stress situation and subsequently in the resulting mental strain. The results of the experiments carried out to investigate this hypothesis verify that repeated measurements have a similar effect as a short break. The repeated measurements taken during progressive studies are, therefore, likely to affect the conditions of stress. A change in the level of mental strain recorded can be expected, particularly if the post-test rating is preceded by a long period of low stress before or during which an additional measurement of strain is implemented.     

Simulation of accident risk displays in motorway driving with traffic

The study used a vehicle-based driving simulator to evaluate two graphical displays, one showing risk probability in terms of safety margin (Time Headway, TH), and one showing risk severity in terms of Kinetic Energy (KE). Twentyseven subjects were randomly allocated to one of three experimental conditions: Control, TH, and KE. Subjects undertook three driving tasks (ABA design). For the second driving task in the TH and KE conditions, subjects drove in the presence of their respective feedback displays. Measures of TH and KE levels were taken, as well as subjective measures of risk and task loading. It was found that the KE display was more effective than the TH display in reducing the proportion of time subjects spent at short headways. The KE display was also effective in reducing the proportion of time subjects spent at high speed. The KE display appeared to affect the perception of risk (severity of potential accidents). It was concluded that further research evaluating displays that combined the positive effects of both parameters within a single representation display is needed.     

Risky behaviour at traffic signals: a traffic engineer's view

Abstract

Road accidents are reasonably predictable from a knowledge of traffic behaviour, although individual accident involvement is far less predictable. How do individuals perceive the relationship between their own involvement and objective accident risk? This question is explored in relation to Danish case studies of drivers' behaviour at traffic lights and different categories of pedestrians' ‘jay-walking’. On this evidence, it seems unlikely that road users perceive accidents as random negative outcomes of everyday risk taking. Thus it also appears improbable that overall traffic accident risk in any society is a major function of deliberate risk taking by its individual road users.     

eWOM source credibility,perceived risk and food product customer's information adoption

This study examined the relations between source credibility of eWOM (electronic word of mouth), perceived risk and food products customer's information adoption mediated by argument quality and information usefulness. eWOM has been commonly used to refer the customers during decision-making process for food commodities. Based on this study, we used Elaboration Likelihood Model of information adoption presented by Sussman and Siegal (2003) to check the willingness to buy. Non-probability purposive samples of 300 active participants were taken through questionnaire from several regions of the Republic of China and analyzed the data through structural equation modeling (SEM) accordingly. We discussed that whether eWOM source credibility and perceived risk would impact the degree of information adoption through argument quality and information usefulness. It reveals that eWOM has positively influenced on perceived risk by source credibility to the extent of information adoption and, for this, customers use eWOM for the reduction of the potential hazards when decision making. Companies can make their marketing strategies according to their target towards loyal clients' needs through online food- product forums review sites.     

A simulation-based risk network model for decision support in project risk management

This paper presents a decision support system (DSS) for the modeling and management of project risks and risk interactions. This is a crucial activity in project management, as projects are facing a growing complexity with higher uncertainties and tighter constraints. Existing classical methods have limitations for modeling the complexity of project risks. For example, some phenomena like chain reactions and loops are not properly taken into account. This will influence the effectiveness of decisions for risk response planning and will lead to unexpected and undesired behavior in the project. Based on the concepts of DSS and the classical steps of project risk management, we develop an integrated DSS framework including the identification, assessment and analysis of the risk network. In the network, the nodes are the risks and the edges represent the cause and effect potential interactions between risks. The proposed simulation-based model makes it possible to re-evaluate risks and their priorities, to suggest and test mitigation actions, and then to support project manager in making decisions regarding risk response actions. An example of application is provided to illustrate the utility of the model.     

Air traffic control: Ocular metrics reflect cognitive complexity

The objective of the study was to evaluate effects of complexity on cognitive workload in a simulated air traffic control conflict detection task by means of eye movements recording. We manipulated two complexity factors, convergence angle and aircrafts minimum distance at closest approach, in a multidimensional workload assessment method based on psychophysiological, performance, and subjective measures. Conflict trials resulted more complex and time-consuming than no conflicts, requiring more frequent fixations and saccades. Moreover, large saccades showed reduced burst power with higher task complexity. A motion-based and a ratio-based strategy were suggested for conflicts and no conflicts on the basis of ocular metrics analysis: aircrafts differential speed and distance to convergence point at trial start were considered determinant for strategy adoption.Relevance to industryEye metrics measurement for online workload assessment enhances better identification of workload-inducing scenarios and adopted strategy for traffic management. System design, as well as air traffic control operators training programs, might benefit from on line workload measurement.     

Theoretical perspectives on error analysis and traffic behaviour

This paper argues that explanations of performance errors in terms of risk-taking, decision making, or problem-solving will often be incomplete. These cognitive, information processing approaches to human error are valuable, but effects of motivation, emotion, and intention also have to be taken into account if we are to provide a more complete understanding of the origins of error. Some recent, more general views on motivation, intention, and emotion are discussed, leading to several so-called action theories, where motivation and intention play a central part, and to recent formulations of attribution theory, where expectancy and emotion are important concepts. Finally the past and the future of human error research is discussed. Some important notions from earlier research are reviewed, with special attention given to Spearman (1928), and a suggestion is briefly introduced for a possible alternative to the computer metaphor of information processing.     

An investigation of email processing from a risky decision making perspective

The prevalence of cyber crimes has threatened the business model enabled by email. Users have to evaluate email related risks before forming their attitude and read intention toward commercial emails. Drawing on a seminal theoretical framework in risky decision making, we propose a research model that incorporates computer risk taking propensity and email risk perception as influential in cultivating commercial email attitude and read intention. The research model is empirically validated using survey data and the results provide significant support. This study contributes to the literature on email use by exploring the process of risky decision making and influence sources.     

Errors and bias in assessments of danger and frequency of traffic situations

Six groups of nine drivers took part in a laboratory study which sought to investigate the ways in which judgements are made about the frequency of accidents and particular manoeuvres in various driving situations. For some groups a sorting task was interpolated between frequency judgement tasks, which required subjects to categorize driving errors either according to whether they were or were not dangerous, or did or did not commonly occur, in the contexts encountered earlier. Other groups did not have such interpolated tasks. The effects of the sorting exercise were to increase the subjective frequencies of accidents, but not subjective frequencies of particular manoeuvres in those same situations. These findings are discussed in terms of theories of heuristics and debiasing propounded by Fischoff, Kahneman, Tversky and others, and current research on drivers' assessments of risk and ability.     

AGE AND CHOICE BETWEEN RESPONSES IN A SELF-PACED REPETITIVE TASK

Abstract

When young subjects select between two responses of similar amplitudes, and in the same direction, they can overlap identification of one of two signals with the initial movement of a reach appropriate to either. They thus respond more quickly when selecting between responses of similar amplitudes than when selecting between responses of very different amplitudes. Older subjects are loss able to overlap movement and choice time and so benefit less from a choice between similar as against dissimilar responses. Young subjects respond faster when cycles of responses during the task are alternated than when they are repeated. This tendency appears to be related to guessing strategies earlier described as the ‘ negative recency effect ’ or ‘ gambler 's fallacy ’. The latencies of young subjects' responses appear to be directly dependent on the latencies of immediately preceding responses rather than on the response rate for the sequence as a whole. Latencies of old subjects' responses are affected by both factors. Implications for the design of consoles are discussed.     

Quantification of cost and risk during product development

In response to customers’ rising demands for more customization and quality, companies are making more frequent changes to their products. A framework for a decision support system (DSS) which helps product development managers to understand the cost and risk of change is described and illustrated with a simple example of a thermoflask. The DSS assesses project performance metrics, such as development effort, development time, product cost and revenue, customer satisfaction, profit margin, and risk. The system allows the recalculation of these performance metrics when engineering change occurs during the creation of new design solutions. The assessment of different design solutions can then be performed by comparing the change in performance metrics. The DSS integrates methods from quality function deployment, functional analysis, and risk assessment that increases product knowledge during design stages in order to calculate the effects of engineering change, and thus, to support design managers in decision making.     

Comparison of customer balking and reneging behavior to queueing theory predictions: An experimental study

In this paper, we study customer decision-making while in a queuing situation. Customers can either join a queue or balk and return at a later time. Customers who join can renege and also return later. Our objective is to determine whether people seem to follow the benchmarks provided by queuing theory or whether psychological costs and perceptions of time invalidate these benchmarks. We use a computerized experiment where participants face explicit financial rewards and penalties for their decisions in a between subjects, fully crossed design with two experimental factors—clock data, and information about expected waiting time, each at two levels, presence and absence. Evaluated against the queuing theory benchmark, decision-making is quite good. Reneging is very rare, as queuing theory requires. Most participants follow a consistent rule for balking. They balk at every line longer than some critical value, as prescribed by queueing theory. But, even when corrected for heterogeneity in time perception, this critical value is greater than the one that minimizes expected waiting time. The large critical value may be due to risk-aversion or participants overestimating the switching cost. The results are supported by a second experiment using different parameters. Information improved decisions for most participants by increasing the precision of waiting time estimates. In addition, information helps participants who underestimate waiting time to correctly leave the line and those who over-estimate to stay. Providing clock time had almost no impact on decision-making.     

Supply network design: Risk-averse or risk-neutral?

In this paper, we investigate a supply network design in supply chain with unreliable supply with application in the pharmaceutical industry. We consider two types of decision making policies: (1) a risk-neutral decision-making policy that is based on a cost-minimization approach and (2) a risk-averse policy wherein, rather than selecting facilities and identifying the pertinent supplier–consumer assignments that minimize the expected cost, the decision-maker uses a Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) approach to measure and quantify risk and to define what comprises a worst-case scenario. The CVaR methodology allows the decision-maker to specify to what extent worst-case scenarios should be avoided and the corresponding costs associated with such a policy. After introducing the underlying optimization models, we present computational analysis and statistical analysis to compare the results of the risk-averse and risk-neutral policies. In addition, we provide several managerial insights.