The effects of intertemporal demand dependencies on optimal electrical energy pricing: An extension

The principal issue addressed in this paper deals with the price profile for a regulated public utility when demand and supply vary spatially and temporally and when demands are temporally interdependent. No simple cost based solution proves possible. Price is determined as a weighted average of marginal operating costs in all periods, capital costs in all periods, and delivery costs.The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the policies of the Department of Energy or the views of other Department of Energy staff members.     

Regional interfuel substitution by electric companies: The short-term prospects

This paper uses a translog price possibility frontier to measure the extent of regional interfuel substitution effects in the electric utility industry in the United States. Monthly data based on Department of Energy regions serve as the vehicle around which the estimation is performed. Given the nonlinear character of the price possibility frontier specification, an iterative Zellner seemingly unrelated regression technique is used for estimating the parameters of the model. The results suggest that relative changes in fuel prices have significant effects on fossil fuel consumption. This, in turn, has important implications for public policy. In particular, the market system appears better able to deal with exogenous shifts in energy supplies than has frequently been assumed in the formulation of energy policy toward the energy crisis.The author is an economist with the Department of Energy, Office of Conservation and Solar Applications. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the policies of the Department of Energy or the views of other Department of Energy staff members.     

Impacts of air pollution control costs: An input-output approach

Ozone in the South Cast Air Basin, which encompasses the urbanized portions of Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties in California, currently exceeds the federal standard. Rules on stationary sources have been adopted to reduce emissions of two ozone precursors, reactive organic gases (ROG) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x). This paper uses an input-output framework to evaluate the distributional impacts of four of the most costly NO_x rules on the South Coast economy in terms of output, income, employment, and prices. The model allows output substitutions by making the household sector endogenous and feeding price elasticities into personal consumption coefficients. Instead of using annualized costs, it is assumed that the rate of industrial compliance to NO_x rules follows an accelerating pattern during the simulation period of 1984 to 1988; i.e., from the time a rule was adopted to the time it will be complied with. It is found that the highest price increase occurs in Petroleum Refineries in 1988 (.48 percent). The overall results indicate that price impacts are rather insignificant.This paper was written while the author was with the South Coast Air Quality Management District. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the South Coast Air Quality Management District.     

Multi-plant location with respect to uniform pricing

This study develops a model to determine the optimal location of plants producing a single product on a non-homogenous plain. The mutual interdependence of price, demand, production cost and transportation cost is taken into consideration. Under uniform pricing and an uneven distribution of demand, the objective is to determine the maximum-profit location. No direct method exists to find the profit-maximizing solution. Therefore, the number, size and location of plants are determined using a step-wise heuristic approach.     

Making refineries public utilities: An incision into vertical integration in the oil industry

In the current concern over the behavior and performance of the oil industry attention has frequently been drawn to possible alternative market structures for that industry-trustbusting, public ownership, etc. This paper applies the traditional tests of a public utility to one segment of the oil and gas industry-refineries-and finds that the fit is fairly neat. The presumed beneficial results would be an incision into the problems occasioned by intensive vertical integration and a closer relation of cost to price for the buyer.The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Congressional Research Service or the Library of Congress.     

对确定性存储模型的推广

在需求率为常数的假定下,以总利润最大为目标,建立了确定性的经济订购批量存储模型。在此基础上,探讨了一种在需求率随销售价格呈非线性变动的假设下,以系统利润达到最大为目标的存储模型,从而得到一个推广的经济订购批量存储模型。并首先运用多元函数的极值理论,从数学上证明了最优解的存在,给出了最优订货批量、最优销售价格以及最优订货周期的求解方法,然后对模型进行了灵敏度分析。最后给出了一个应用实例。     

Optimally sized hybrid energy system for auxiliaries of a cement manufacturing unit with diesel fuel price sensitivity analysis

Prices of fuels such as coal and diesel are showing uptrend continuously in India due to which the manufacturing sector is finding it hard to control the production cost. The manufacturing units are emphasising upon innovative practices to reduce the electrical energy consumption in order to reduce production cost. They are recognising renewable energy as one of the options to save fuel cost to some extent by running some partial load on this energy. This paper is presenting a technical and economic analysis for proposing a hybrid renewable energy system, comprising Solar Photovoltaic, wind, a storage battery and a diesel unit, for running auxiliary load of a cement manufacturing unit located in Durg district of Chhattisgarh, India. As the diesel prices are continuously increasing almost rupees 0.5 per month in India for the last few months, the diesel price sensitivity analysis is also done for optimal system sizing. The results show that diesel price increment from $1.01 to $1.09 does not affect optimal system size but only net present cost and levelised cost of energy. When diesel price increases beyond $1.09, the optimal system size increases resulting in capital cost increment. It attains a new optimal system size at a diesel price of $1.13.     

宏观调控与制度创新

从城市制度的角度出发,在利益最大化的基础上,重新解释了市场条件下,城市政府和消费者的行为。认为房地产制度的改革是解释目前经济过热的核心线索,抑制房地产价格上涨速度应当成为此次宏观调控的主要目标。在此基础上,提出了以制度创新抑制局部经济过热的具体对策:通过引入土地准备金和支付足够的赔偿,校正低估的供给成本;通过引入财产税校正低估的需求成本;通过城市结构调整增加有效区位供给,减缓需求与供给速度差形成的虚假的市场价格信号。笔者认为,城市制度的创新是形成真实市场信号和合理市场行为的关键,新的发展观乃是合理制度诱致的结果。     

The Irish sub-prime residential mortgage sector: international lessons for an emerging market

As the volume of mortgage credit has risen in tandem with house price inflation, the sub-prime home loan sector of the Irish market has begun to expand in order to meet demand from those not serviced by the mainstream financial service providers. This article examines the recent emergence of this form of mortgage credit in Ireland and draws comparisons with the USA, where this form of lending has long been a feature of the market but also where this sub-market has recently encountered very serious difficulties. It concludes that this is a rapidly expanding market and an opportunity for new private sector entrants. However, this paper highlights the favourable terms offered by the public sector and argues that their failure to price according to the risk profile of borrowers exposes the Exchequer to higher—and often unquantified—costs in pursuit of promoting home-ownership. It also concludes that the Irish public sector provision does not wholly comply with the generally accepted features of sub-prime lending with consequent very high rates of default. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the funders or the board of management of the Centre for Housing Research.     

The financials of constructing a solar PV for net-zero energy operations on college campuses

The LACCD has a goal of establishing net-zero energy operations across its nine campuses. The project faces many challenges, including limited open areas for installing solar PV, increasing energy consumption challenges associated with campus energy growth and the high cost of installing solar PV. A previous study by Kwan and Hoffmann (2010) found that the LACCD would need to install a 9.5 MW solar PV array in order to meet total campus energy demand on a college campus through the year 2020. This paper attempts to evaluate the financial feasibility of such a project, taking into account the current local, state and federal renewable energy incentives available. We find that despite the availability of financial incentives by local municipal utility companies including installation rebates and net metering, the cost of electricity generated by solar PV still remains approximately 30% higher than electricity generated by fossil fuels. We also find that the optimal solar PV array size from a financial standpoint is one that is sized to generate and meet all electrical demand during sunlight hours. Any array larger than this yields diminishing returns. Finally our analysis examined the influence of per kW installation cost and found that only when prices dropped to $3.00 per installed watt did a net-zero energy solar PV array have an NPV of 0.     

运用工程经济分析控制项目成本的几点体会

建筑市场仍然存在较多的问题,比如工程成本预算编制不切实际、工程成本的控制无法落实等。在工程项目经营管理中,如何使用最小的投入来换取最大的效益无疑是最重要的问题。作为多年的工程项目管理者,笔者就工程经济分析在项目成本上的控制方面,简要谈谈自己的看法。     

Housing price and transaction intensity correlation in Hong Kong: implications for government housing policy

Examination of the causal relationship between housing price and transaction intensity helps us understand the housing market dynamics better. The housing market is a very unique asset market as demand for housing comes from both demand for investment return and demand for a shelter/accommodation. Empirical analysis on this causal relationship therefore provides government with important policy considerations. In this paper, we will examine such correlation between housing price movements and transaction intensity in Hong Kong with a core objective of getting a better understanding of the housing market behavior in this city so that more effective government housing policy could be devised. We examine the price–transaction correlation observed in the Hong Kong housing market by means of a bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model, with a time series spanning over the period from 1993 to 2014. Without examining other macroeconomic variables such as employment and gross domestic product, our Granger causality test shows a strong evidence, suggesting that housing price Granger causes transaction intensity in the housing market of Hong Kong, but not vice versa. The findings buttressed by the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the bounds test results on cointegration relationships support our conclusion. Based on these results, we question the current government housing policy which aims mainly at suppressing demand and hence transaction intensity, if the objective of government intervention is to bring housing price level to a more affordable level. Housing policy therefore should aim at effectuating the supply channel so that there is a clearer signal of constant and effective supply of housing units, which will eventually help stabilize housing price.     

既有建筑节能改造保温材料的NSGA-Ⅱ协同设计

保温措施是既有建筑节能改造中最有效的节能措施之一。在墙体节能改造设计中,保温材料种类及其厚度的确定是至关重要的,受到多个目标参数的制约和影响。基于反问题的研究方法,建立数值计算方法与多目标遗传算法NSGA-Ⅱ相结合的优化模型,以单位面积墙体全年总能耗和保温材料成本为目标参数,对成都地区某既有建筑墙体节能改造的保温材料种类与厚度进行了协同设计。结果表明,采用常规的保温厚度,常用的8种保温材料中有6种都不是最优解,但是可以通过改变保温材料的厚度或单价等方法使解向Pareto前沿逼近,以实现单位面积墙体年总能耗最小和改造成本最小之间的平衡。     

Impact of crude oil market behaviour on unit bid prices: the evidence from the highway construction sector

It is well known that the cost of highway construction is affected by the cost of crude oil. While this relationship is highly visible for construction items such as asphalt cement (a by‐product in the process of refining oil), the effects of the crude oil prices on the cost of other construction items, such as concrete cement or construction operations are less direct, but equally important. For unit‐based contracts without price adjustment clauses, this relationship is of a particular significance. In fact, an increase in price of fuel could result in substantial losses, as contractors are not protected. Hence, to hedge against this risk, contractors are likely to incorporate a premium in bid prices to manage project risks. The objective of this paper is to investigate the evidence of this behaviour. New evidence shows that the expected change in oil prices (the difference between future and spot price) and the implied volatility in the oil market affect the price of bid items for contracts without price adjustment clauses. Such results allow for more effective implementation of risk management on project‐ and programme‐level basis.     

Spatial demand theory and monopoly price policy

Conclusions The over-all conclusion of this paper is that the effec of delivery cost on the price policy of a monopolist depends systematically upon the shape of the demand curves of the consumers in his market area. In drawing the specific conclusions of propositions I–IV, we have used the simplifying assumptions of constant marginal production costs and identity of all consumer demand schedules. Our results are also dependent upon conditions that the convexity of the individual demand curve nowhere varies beyond well defined limits. Therefore, the results of our analysis are not as general as those which might be derived at the cost of a more involved analysis.The support of the National Science Foundation and the Regional Science Research Institute is gratefully acknowledged.     

Prospects of gas supplies to the European market until 2030—results from the simulation model EUGAS

Natural gas is the fossil energy fuel estimated to have the highest demand growth rates in Europe during the first three decades in the 21st century. Hence, substantial new gas supplies are needed for the European energy markets in the coming years. In this article, future European gas supplies are quantitatively projected by using the long-term optimisation model EUGAS, developed at the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne in year 2000. The model simulations show no discernible physical gas scarcity at least for the next 20–30 years in Europe, but significant investments in new production and transportation facilities will be necessary during this time period. Diversification of supplies and political considerations will have significant impacts on the development of new gas resources and on investments needed. Nevertheless, the unit costs of supplies are moderate, and only minor cost driven price increases have to be expected during the coming decades—at least as long as future gas demand growth does not significantly exceed current projections.     

The impact of gasoline prices on urban bus ridership

This article examines the gasoline price elasticity of ridership on a city transit system. Multiple regression models are developed to explain variations in ridership due to changes in gasoline prices, bus system size, and other variables. The estimated gasoline price elasticity of bus ridership is. 3, which is very strong statistically. This provides insight into the possible relationship between future federal energy policies which will influence future gasoline prices and urban transportation modal choices.     

Hotelling's “Ice cream dealers” with elastic demand

This article reconsiders the Hotelling duopoly model of 1929, but under elastic demand, more precisely a linear demand function. The equilibrium state for identical firms is fully described, and the intervals of different regimes: independent monopolies, genuine duopoly competition, and price cutting wars, are specified in terms of one single compound parameter (maximum price, minus marginal production cost, divided by transportation cost). Received: October 2000/Accepted: August 2001     

发展CNG汽车 拓展天然气市场

论述了上海地区车用CNG的市场与发展前景。对上海车用CNG的发展作了较系统的全面分析、比较;并参照其它国家发布的能源燃料价格,进行了上海主要能源价格的比较;同时还对现已投入运行的加气站作了详细的运行成本分析。由此推论上海发展车用CNG,1)可促进经济的可持续发展:2)有利于燃料能源结构的调整、天然气供需平衡和能源的合理利用:3)将带动相关产业的发展:4)还需政府的支持协调及政策上的扶持。     

含跨季节储热的多能互补分布式能源系统容量配置优化

为了满足我国对环保及能源的需求,多能互补分布式能源系统成为了分布式能源系统的发展的趋势。文章针对北京地区某办公建筑构建了含跨季节储热的多能互补分布式能源系统,以年总成本最低为目标函数,在满足全年负荷的情况下利用PSO算法(粒子群算法)对该系统中的跨季节储热系统关键设备(储热水箱和基岩储热设备)的容量进行优化,得出了其最佳的容量配置。