Drought contingency planning

Simulation gaming has the potential to enhance the effectiveness of drought management planning. The Indianapolis water supply system is used to illustrate how. First, the probability of experiencing a severe drought in Indianapolis is examined using historical streamflow data. The effects of such a drought on the municipal water supply system are then analysed using a recently developed simulation model of the Indianapolis water system. Consideration is given to the water resource decision-making problems that might arise under drought conditions, along with a discussion of the benefits of employing simulation gaming in the analysis of these problems. A basic outline for the design of a drought management simulation exercise is presented.     

Designing an expert system for real-time reservoir system operation

Significant progress has been made recently in the design of optimization models to mimic the decision making process of reservoir operators. Several of these models for real-time, short term reservoir system operation are described. The models include: an optimization model constructed specifically for a multi-reservoir, multipurpose system in Kentucky; a goal programming model that requires less information than most other models yet may yield equivalent or better results; a chance constrained model that explicitly considers errors in streamflow forecasts in the operating environment; and a balancing model that uses cumulative distribution functions to maintain a balance between storage, release, and any other characteristic of the operation. Each model is briefly described and comparisons between models are made. These models represent the initial development of an expert system for real-time reservoir system operation.     

基于BP神经网络的供水管网分时段宏观模型研究

准确快速地模拟供水管网的运行状态是城市供水系统优化调度的前提和关键。针对城市供水管网建模难的状况，结合南京市供水管网的特点，利用BP神经网络建立了城市供水管网分时段宏观等效模型。经实际运行数据验证，该模型计算得到的压力预测值与实际值非常接近，预测误差能满足优化调度的工程精度要求。可见该模型基本上能反映南京市供水管网的供水量与水压的关系，可用以模拟城市供水管网的运行状态，为管网优化调度提供了有力支持。     

A new method of ozone forecasting using fuzzy expert and neural network systems

This study describes the method of forecasting daily maximum ozone concentrations at four monitoring sites in Seoul, Korea. The forecasting tools developed are fuzzy expert and neural network systems. The hourly data for air pollutants and meteorological variables, obtained both at the surface and at the high elevation (500 hPa) stations of Seoul City for the period of 1989-1999, were analyzed. Two types of forecast models are developed. The first model, Part I, uses a fuzzy expert system and forecasts the possibility of high ozone levels (equal to or above 80 ppb) occurring on the next day. The second model, Part II, uses a neural network system to forecast the daily maximum concentration of ozone on the following day. The forecasting system includes a correction function so that the existing model can be updated whenever a new ozone episode appears. The accuracy of the forecasting system has been improved continuously through verification and augmentation.     

Comparison of extreme weather events and streamflow from drought indices and a hydrological model in River Malaba,Eastern Uganda

The study examined the applicability of the Combined Drought Index (CDI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and IHACRES (identification of unit hydrographs and component flows from rainfall, evaporation and streamflow data) model in characterizing extreme weather events in relation to streamflow variations of the River Malaba. The results showed that the extreme weather events return period had reduced from 4–10 to 1–3 years over the catchment. The CDI was a better predictor of drought events (2005–2006) than the SPI, which was better for flood events (2006, 1997 and 2008) in the catchment. The performance of the IHACRES model with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.89 comparatively corresponded with the results obtained from the SPI and CDI drought indices especially during recorded events of severe drought (2005) and flood (1997). These results coincided with the La-Nina events that were recorded over the catchment and Uganda at large.     

Water resources management in the Jordan River Basin

The Jordan River Basin is under great hydric stress. Increases in population and agricultural demand are contributing to the closure of the basin. This paper analyses the results of integrated water resources planning model (WEAP) by studying the vulnerability of water resources in the lower Jordan River under a changing climate pattern and growing water demands. Water balance models show that all aquifers supplying the city of Amman will be depleted within the next few decades. Mitigation measures should include the introduction of additional water into the basin through the Red Sea–Dead Sea canal, in addition to demand management measures such as water conservation and increase in irrigation efficiency. The findings of this study would provide a useful guide to the co‐riparians for policy formulation, decision making and dispute resolution. Cooperation among the five riparian countries may be improved by building a Geographic Information System (GIS) database that provides access to accurate data for hydrological analysis.     

Development of a Decision Support System for Drought Management within North West Water

Whilst droughts, by their nature, are not frequently occurring events, it is essential, for prudent management of water-resources systems, to have analytical tools available for the effective management of the risks to water supplies when such events do occur.
Within North West Water Limited, modelling techniques have been developed and applied over a number of years, which allow water-supply managers to be provided with information concerning risks to supply within the Company's water-resources systems.
The paper describes how these modelling techniques have been integrated within a decision support system for drought management. Two different approaches have been used. Firstly, enhancement by the implementation of a user-friendly interface and, secondly, the development of a knowledge-based system. The problems and benefits of each approach are discussed.     

Assessment of predictive uncertainty within the framework of water demand forecasting using the Model Conditional Processor (MCP)

This paper presents an application of the Model Conditional Processor (MCP), originally proposed by Todini (2008) within the hydrological framework, to assess the predictive uncertainty in water demand forecasting related to water distribution systems. The MCP enables us to assess the probability distribution of the future water demand conditional on the forecasts provided by two or more deterministic forecasting models. In the numerical application described here, where two years of hourly water demand data for a town in northern Italy are considered, two forecasting models are applied in order to forecast hourly water demands from 1 to 24 hours ahead: the first model has a modular structure comprising a periodic component which reflects the long-term effects and a persistence component which represents the short-term memory of the process; the latter is based on neural networks. The results highlight the effectiveness of the approach, provided that the data set used for the MCP parameterization is properly selected so as to be actually representative of the accuracy of the real-time water demand forecasting models.     

Discussion of paper

In the spring of 1993, the Utah Special Improvement District project was initiated to improve sidewalks, curb and gutters, and driveway approaches (aprons) in Salt Lake City. One of the critical problems faced during this project was how to recommend the most appropriate treatment decision at the roadway improvement job sites. Therefore, the research was conducted to demonstrate the use of an expert system on a portable computer at the construction job site. A prototype Portable Inspection Expert System (PIES) was developed based on the following factors: displacement, surface condition, water effect, tree root effect, and condition of adjacent sections. PIES can decide if replacement, jacking, or do nothing treatment of concrete sections is required.

PIES program was developed by using “KnowledgePro Windows” expert system shell, and installed in “Dauphin DTR-1” pen-based portable computer. One of the major benefits of using an expert system on a portable computer is that it can combine the necesary information on the distress condition of the facilities and help the inspectors make appropriate decision at construction job sites. PIES had been tested with two engineers and a follw-up survey was conducted after the test. Feedback from the survey was analyzed to improve limitations. The current inspection process for the Utah Special Improvement District project was improved by using a consistent decision rule of PIES.     

Concept and prototype of a spatial decision support system for integrated water management applied to Ichkeul Basin,Tunisia

In this study, we develop a spatial decision support system (SDSS) for water management in a basin characterised by existing and projected dams to satisfy freshwater demand while preserving a particular ecosystem. The territorial and functional interests along with management scenarios were integrated into consistent stages of the SDSS. The developed prototype allowed comparisons of multiple water allocation options to competing users in the catchment by two aggregation methods. Through a simulation modelling exercise and stakeholder's involvement, the main outputs are the development of water management options and a set of criteria/subcriteria to evaluate these options related to socio‐economic, water availability and ecological factors. Both aggregation methods reveal the positive effect of water transfer on overall evaluations. New dam construction would cause an increase in the overall evaluation from the SDSS by at best 34% when water availability criteria are favoured, while a decrease in overall evaluation by at worst 75% is indicated when ecological criteria are favoured.     

Evaluating Water-Importation Options in Jordan: Opportunities and Constraints

The future management and development of water in Jordan presents a challenge for decision makers and water-sector planners. The gap between the available water supply and demand has opened in the agricultural and domestic sectors and is likely to widen unless adequate measures are taken. Water importation for Jordan is a sound future option in water-resources planning. The options are (a) the Peace pipeline from Turkey, (b) the Litani River pipeline, (c) the Euphrates River pipeline, and (d) a pipeline from Egypt. An analysis and evaluation of the options reveals that the most viable scheme is the Litani River, followed by the Peace pipeline from Turkey.     

Designing and calibrating an agent-based platform to evaluate the effect of climate variables on residential water demand

Many Iranian metropolises, including Shiraz, are situated in arid and semi-arid regions, lacking sufficient renewable water resources. In recent years, climate changes, including drought and rising temperatures, have led to changes in water supply and demand. Given the necessity and importance of urban water supply, this study investigates the impact of different climate scenarios on residential water demand. Many studies, in their models, do not consider the social interactions between household water consumers and the change in their consumption behaviour, which serves as a fundamental drawback. Thus, the present research attempts to propose an agent-based framework by modelling social interactions via the diffusion process to investigate water consumption behaviour efficiently. The model is calibrated and applied to Shiraz City in Iran, according to the data from 2006 to 2019, and it is used to simulate each scenario for the following years until 2032. The findings show that temperature has a positive and significant effect on residential water consumption; yet, rainfall negatively affects water consumption. The simulation results of these scenarios for temperature increase or decrease and rainfall changes are estimated. In addition, the developed agent-based platform can be easily calibrated and adjusted based on the data of any other city to simulate water demand estimation under different climatic and even economic scenarios. Urban water managers can benefit from such estimates to plan future infrastructure development and proactive management of seasonal water resources under the growing pressure of potential climate change because construing the sensitivity of seasonal water consumption to climate conditions is essential to respond to variations in demand.     

Planning an urban wastewater system with centralised greywater reuse: a case in Beijing

This paper presents a proposed centralised greywater reuse (CGR) system for Daxing New City, Beijing. This system would use separate greywater and blackwater discharge pipes in residences and public buildings. Greywater would be treated in a centralised plant and reused for public purposes. Water supply–demand balance analysis showed that this system would conserve 28.5% of freshwater resources. A centralised wastewater reuse system that would conserve the same water resources and serve the same consumers was developed for comparison. The greywater reuse system would cost 1.2% more than the reference system, but would decrease the pollution load by 10% and improve the water-quality compliance of the Xinfeng River (total phosphorous: 24–42%, total nitrogen: 0–7%). The proposed CGR system exhibited acceptable water conservation, environmental impact, and construction and operation costs, and would thus be suitable in urbanising areas that face water shortages and aqueous environmental deterioration.     

邢台市规划数字监察系统建设

河北省邢台市城乡规划局规划稽查支队把数字信息化技术融入到执法工作中,建成了一套机动灵活高效率的规划数字监察系统,全面满足了信息化时代规划监察的现实需求。该系统建设是以空间数据库为数据管理平台,GGIS地理信息系统为功能应用平台,综合应用GPSSE星定位动态RTK测量、HS车载云台、ATR角度测量、LRF激光测距、PVR影像传输、3G无线通信、RS遥感等技术,运用组件式软件开发完成。按功能划分．该系统由“一个中心、五个系统”组成。“一个中心”即数字终端指挥中心,“五个系统”即远程信息采集系统、执法前移控制系统、综合办公系统、提醒预警系统和绩效评价系统。该系统在违法查处的智能判定、执法工作的巡查监督和提高执法效率与质量的应用上都有出色表现,值得推广应用。     

National Rivers Authority National Strategy and Planning for the Future

The protracted drought from 1988 to 1992 has focused attention upon the availability of water sources in England and Wales. The drought was most severe in the east and south-east parts of England, which also coincides with the areas having (a) the least available water resources, (b) the greatest forecast increase in demand, and (c) the majority of low-flow problems due to excessive authorized abstraction. Even with increasing attention being paid to demand management, there is a need to develop further water-resource schemes. Once local options have been developed it is likely that inter-basin transfers will be required.     

The use of screening models in determining water supply reliability

Accurate estimation of water supply reliability is often hindered by a paucity of historic streamflow data and the expense of adequate system modelling. A procedure using synthetic streamflow generation and screening models in determining water supply reliability in a cost-effective manner is presented. A series of screening models are developed to evaluate numerous synthetic streamflow data to select from them desired flows for incorporation into an optimization model. Results from the optimization model are used to generate cumulative distribution functions of system reliability. The water supply system serving Seattle, Washington is used as a case study.     

Forecasting the sales of precast concrete building products

Sales of precast concrete building products are influenced by the general demand for construction. This demand is subject to substantial fluctuations, caused by such diverse factors as capital spending by Government, the general strength of the economy, the demand for housing — which in turn reflects mortgage interest rates -and also by seasonal factors and weather. These are some of the difficulties associated with sales forecasting in the precast concrete industry. Sales forecasting is crucial managerial practice and its accuracy is vital for any company's business survival. A survey of the current forecasting and planning practices in the industry concluded that forecasting, especially for major product groups, is fairly basic and not reliable. Against this background, a forecasting model has been developed to analyse historical data and forecast demand for 12 months ahead. Two forecasting methods were applied to historical data of 12 groups of products of a major manufacturer. The results of the forecasting model were encouraging and more accurate than the manufacturer's existing forecasting system. The authors interviewed the firm's marketing and sales staff to identify the advantages and disadvantages of the forecasting system and identify the factors which affect sales and forecasting in general. Some tangible indication of the practical use of this work is the support given to this research project by staff of this company, at all levels. The work described in this paper is part of a more general computerized capacity planning system for the precast industry. This would be suitable for major companies, most of whom produce a large number of different products in a number of different manufacturing plants dispersed throughout the UK.     

Financially sustainable management strategies for urban wastewater collection infrastructure – development of a system dynamics model

Causal loop diagrams are developed for wastewater collection networks to identify complex interactions and feedback loops among physical, financial, and social sectors. Causal loop diagrams are then incorporated into a novel system dynamics based decision support tool that can be used for financially sustainable management of wastewater collection networks. Data requirements to develop the decision support tool are discussed along with how can the decision support tool be used to manage a utility.The presented causal loop diagram is the first known attempt to lay out the interrelationships among system components using a formal technique. The causal loop diagram establishes the existence of several interacting feedback loops and demonstrates that the management of wastewater collection networks constitutes a complex dynamic system for which traditional management tools are deemed inadequate. The use of causal loop diagrams can be useful to mitigate effects of the silo-based organizational culture prevalent in many water utilities.The system dynamics model is the first known decision support tool to quantitatively simulate the influence of interrelationships and feedback loops in wastewater collection network management. The model is a mathematical representation of the causal loop diagram to capture cost drivers and revenues sources in the system. It also includes a set of policy levers which allows formulation of various financing and rehabilitation strategies. The model can be used to develop short- and long-term management plans. The impact of financing and rehabilitation strategies on system performance can be simulated and evaluated in terms of financial and service level metrics. The decision support tool can also be used by utilities to ensure essential data is collected and flows within organizational units.