An Analysis of Future Water Policies in Jordan Using Decision Support Systems

Despite looming water shortages in Jordan, the country lacks a coherent water policy and has no recognized institutional mechan ism to create one. D urin g the last 30 years, this critical problem has largely been addressed by physical infrastructu re developm ent in the public sector and grou ndwater exploitation in the private. These efforts are not meeting the increasing dem ands of all competing sectors. This paper analyses possible future water policies in Jordan using decision support system s. An analytical hierarchy process is used to break policies in to compon ent parts, then synthesize and an alyse them in the context of constraints and scenarios in Jordan for the year 2010. The paper argues that Jordan mu st give priority to the efficient m anagement of water resources at the regional level. This includes institutional restructuring, new water pricing strategies, importation of water, and water desalination.     

Water Planning in Jordan

Abstract

This paper present a shift in water planning in Jordan from supply-side water management to more integrated and demand-driven water management. Assessment of existing water supply and demand is presented and strategies are outlined. Potential available water resources and uses are presented. Strategies to meet unsatisfied water demand are presented. These include use of nonconventional water resources, privatization, efficiency enhancement in distribution systems, and demand management. Scenarios for sustainable water management are developed. Each scenario was based on combinations of the role of government in the water sector and the national financial situation. Comparisons among these scenarios were performed for the case of Jordan and a set of recommendations are stated.     

The Role of Desalination in Meeting Water Supply Demands in Western Asia

Abstract

The increasing gap between the supply and demand for water in the Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia (ESCWA) member countries: Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen) can be attributed to the limited availability of surface water, mining of fossil groundwater sources, and water pollution mainly of shallow aquifers, deficient institutional structure, poor management processes, and inapt allocation of financial resources. The non-sustainable use of natural water resources to meet the escalating water demand has also contributed to the depletion and deterioration of water quality and quantity. To meet water supply shortages in the domestic sector, water desalination has been entrenched as a viable option for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which includes the following countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. The objective of the paper is to investigate the role of water desalination in meeting the water demands in the ESCWA member countries. The significant role of desalination is highlighted with emphasis in evaluating not only its production trends, processes, and costs, but also its capacity in the provision of water demands. Water desalination has become a major and staunch water source for a number of large urban centers. For such countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar and the coastal zone areas of Oman, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia, desalination represents one of the most feasible and strategic alternative options for their current and future domestic water supply requirement. Given the high consumption rate from this source and its high production cost, fundamental efforts must be integrated and invested in both research and development programs to implement comprehensive conservation measures that would lead to a reduction in the consumption rates. Parallel to these achievements, efforts should be directed within the context of integrated management of water resources, to identify alternative potential water resources, to meet future water challenges.     

Groundwater Protection and Management Strategy in Jordan

Groundwater resources are essential in Jordan that require careful planning and management in order to sustain human socio-economic development and various ecosystems. However these vital resources are under the threat of degradation by both mismanagement and over-exploitation that leads to contamination and decline of water levels. A new by-law, which specifically addresses pollution prevention and protection of water resources used for domestic purposes through appropriate land use restriction and zoning, is currently under preparation in Jordan. This law (i.e., Groundwater Management Policy) addresses the management of groundwater resources including development, protection, management, and reducing abstraction for each renewable aquifer to the sustainable rate (i.e., safe yield). Groundwater vulnerability mapping and delineation of groundwater protection zones were implemented in different areas in Jordan in cooperation between the German Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR) company and Ministry of Water and Irrigation. This paper presents the status of groundwater resources in Jordan and their major issues. It attempts to discuss the groundwater vulnerability and protection strategy and the impacts of over-exploitation on the groundwater aquifers in an integrated water resources management perspective.     

To desalinate or divert? A comparative supply cost analysis for north coastal China

Seawater desalination is largely presented as a last resort to address water scarcity in closed basins. The question of whether seawater desalination can substitute for other costly measures, specifically large-scale diversion, has not been adequately assessed. To this end the full unit cost of supplying water to Beijing from the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, the largest in the world, is compared to desalination. Desalination appears to be much more cost-efficient than diversion, even when the diversion’s environmental externalities are excluded. By implementing desalination and water management options, China could substantially reduce water costs; this suggests that desalination should not be viewed only as a last resort.     

Urban and agricultural competition for water,and water reuse

Competition for water can be resolved by construction of more facilities for storing water in wet years for use in dry years, by weather modification, watershed management, urban and agricultural water conservation, reuse of sewage effluent and other wastewater, desalination of saline water, water banking and transfer of water rights or other changes in water use. Reuse of wastewater requires treatment so that the water meets the quality requirements for the intended reuse. Groundwater recharge and recovery can play an important role in the treatment and storage of wastewater for reuse—agricultural, urban, and industrial, as well as potable. Often, water shortages are only shortages of cheap and abundant water, and competition problems can be resolved by good planning and management if the public is willing to pay the price and to accept changes in water use.     

Application of Decision Support System for Sustainable Management of Water Resources in the Azraq Basin—Jordan

Abstract

Water scarcity in Jordan is a significant constraint to development, with limited available water and financial resources. As population and economic activity increase, it will be necessary to implement national strategies that seek to balance the present needs and those of future generations. Multiple variables associated with agricultural crops, industries, and the impact of climate change, were incorporated into a Decision Support System (DSS). The DSS utilized Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), which resulted in the prioritization of sustainable water policies for management in the Azraq Basin. The inputs to the DSS were generated through application of Modflow (groundwater), stochastic, and Penman Montieth models and through calculations of water productivity for agricultural and industrial sectors. The results of the DSS make recommendations as to how to enhance long-term sustainability of water resources in Azraq, while allowing for water utilization and economic growth. It is recommended for future planning that further research of the impacts to water resources must be conducted at local and national levels and linked to regional and global climate change prediction. It can be concluded that the DSS tool and AHP are potentially positive contributions to the process of decision- making for selection and ranking of alternatives and policies and for help in solving problems that include conflicting criteria.     

Application of Expert and Decision Support Systems for Optimizing Water Supply in the Jordan Valley

Abstract

Expert System (ES) and Decision Support System (DSS) are becoming essential tools that support decision makers, professionals, and managers in their efforts to operate, control, and develop decisions on a sound and integrated basis. Applications of ES and DSS are not limited to a certain sector or field, but are typically used in sectors that involve management and planning. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate on the application of these systems in Jordan and specifically in managing and operating the water demand and supply of the main water carrier in the Jordan Valley, the King Abdullah Canal (KAC). This canal extends from the upper part of the valley at Adasiya down to the Dead Sea with a total length of 110 km connecting one of the most complicated irrigation and conveyance systems in the region. At present, the Jordan Valley Authority (JVA), which is responsible for all the activities in the Jordan Valley, is operating and managing the water of KAC using the JVA Water Management Information System (WMIS) and JVA Hydraulic Model. After five years of implementing this management system, there was enough information to analyze and evaluate it as well as to determine the areas of shortcomings. This paper focuses on analyzing these results and providing the necessary recommendations. These recommendations are in the form of software and hardware that will improve using both the Expert System and Knowledge Base System and make it a successful model of water optimization for the country and region.     

Water quality and quantity in Jordan's Dead Sea wadis

An evaluation of a potential water supply for the city of Amman, Jordan was conducted for five tributaries (wadis) to the Dead Sea. The total average discharge of approximately 0.85 m³/s (26.8 million cubic metres (MCM)/year) represents a significant quantity of water given the limited fresh-water supplies in the region. Although the raw water concentrations sometimes exceeded allowable concentrations for metals and pathogens, standard drinking water treatment associated with desalination facilities should alleviate most water quality concerns. The total construction cost is estimated to be between $85 and $95 million. Assuming a 15-year design life, this corresponds to a cost of $0.22/m³. This is feasible compared to alternative water supply options.     

Impacts of Global Climate Change Scenarios on Water Supply and Demand in Jordan

Abstract

The potential impact of global climate change is one of the least addressed factors in water resources planning in developing countries. The potential impacts of climate change are examined for Jordan, where a methodology is presented for improved management of water demand under the uncertainties associated with climate change. A temperature/precipitation sensitivity model is constructed and combined with water demand forecasts to project deficits for the year 2020. Deficit reducing options are then evaluated in terms of social and economic viability. The study concludes that only some of the deficits may be alleviated, illustrating the significance of considering climate change in planning for countries that already experience water imbalances.     

Multicriteria Analysis For Water Productivity in the Jordan Valley

Abstract

Multiple variables associated with agricultural sector, including crop water consumption, salinity tolerance, marketing, evapotranspiration and other factors related to industrial sector, were incorporated into a multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The MCA utilized Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) which resulted in the prioritization of water use for management in the Jordan Valley. The inputs to the MCA were generated through metrological variables for the Jordan Valley for the period 1980 to 1999. Soil data and crop data were evaluated using the EVAPOT program, the KCISA program, and the ISAREG model to estimate reference evapotranspiration, crop coefficiency, crop water requirement, and calculations of water productivity for agricultural and industrial sectors. The results of the MCA make recommendations for enhancing long-term sustainability of water resources in the Jordan Valley, while allowing for water utilization and economic growth. The MCA ranked the date palm as the highest priority crop with respect to the goal of sustainable agricultural use of water. Apparel manufacturing was the most sustainable industry. Overall, the industrial sector seems to perform better with regards to water productivity than the agricultural sector. It can be concluded that the MCA tool and ISAREG model are potentially positive contributions to the process of decision- making for selection and ranking of alternatives for help in solving problems that include conflicting criteria.     

‘Hotel Middle East’: social shocks and adaptation in Jordan’s domestic water sector

While socio-ecological systems are susceptible to social shocks, a theoretical and empirical understanding of social-shock adaptation remains absent from the literature. This article investigates the Syrian refugee crisis in water-scarce Jordan, where historical waves of migration have shaped water governance. Findings suggest that water sector adaptation to social shocks fits within broader adaptation theory, and that frequent refugee crises in Jordan have perpetuated reactive water governance, shaping the sector’s resiliencies, vulnerabilities, and adaptation processes. Through examining adaptation processes in the acute water and refugee contexts of Jordan, we suggest that through planning and preparedness, socio-ecological systems could build resilience to social shocks.     

A Framework for Short-term Operational Planning for Water Grids

Water grids are emerging as a response to water scarcity in many urban areas. These grids are comprised not only of traditional surface and groundwater supplies, but also alternative, climate-independent water sources such as desalination and wastewater recycling, as well as one and two-way pipelines connecting surface-water supplies in different regions. The complexity and heterogeneity of these water supply networks brings new challenges to water management. Water managers need to determine strategies to operate the system in terms of multiple objectives, subject to uncertainty and boundary conditions relating to climate, demand and infrastructure. This paper outlines a framework of methodologies for developing optimal operating plans for short-term planning for water grids, in terms of the objectives of interest.     

Security through diversity: moving from rhetoric to practice

In response to a range of contemporary urban water challenges, there is an increasingly urgent need to change the way water is used in our cities. In Australia, the 'Security through Diversity' policy has been introduced in a number of cities to help facilitate a shift towards sustainable urban water management. This qualitative case study research investigated the interpretation and implementation of this radically different urban water policy approach across the case study cities of Perth and Melbourne. To focus the research and allow for more reliable comparative analysis across the cities, the introduction of desalination and permanent water saving rules as new initiatives in these cities were of particular interest. The research results are drawn from a synthesis of over 65 semi-structured interviews with senior urban water practitioners in the case study cities, and a content analysis of key policy and guidance documents, as well as organizational literature where available. The key finding of this research was that because of an entrenched technological paradigm, and the difficulty in breaking this pattern of lock-in, practitioners are currently interpreting and implementing Security through Diversity in a way that does not fully realise the potential of this strategy. More specifically the interview results revealed that the urban water practitioner community believed that the introduction of seawater desalination would discharge their city's responsibility for achieving Security through Diversity and that demand management initiatives, while nice, are not essential to this policy position. Interestingly, despite context evidence to the contrary, the practitioners believed supply and demand planning to be an integrated practice within their city. The paper concludes by offering some recommendations to facilitate a more comprehensive implementation of Security through Diversity and outlines areas for possible future research.     

Integration of Reservoir Volume Estimates into Water Resources Decision Making

Abstract

Engineers have long sought a tool that would improve the reliability of planning estimates for water storage volumes, especially under tight financial constraints. Three tributaries on a desert wadi in Jordan were investigated to learn about the possibility of groundwater artificial recharge using flood water retention structures. For each tributary, calculations were made without the assistance of surveying equipment and manpower to present to the authorities for a rapid decision to proceed with preliminary and final design of such water storage structures. Each tributary was visually observed and rough measurements taken to estimate lake volumes of dikes at different heights, ranging from 2 m to 10 m. The resulting volumes were calculated based on differing slopes of dike sides and effective lengths of profiles. These planning level estimates were presented to government decision makers and were subsequently compared to exact volume calculations from detailed topographical surveys. The percentage difference between planning and final volume calculations ranged from one to fifteen percent. In addition to the obvious conclusions that final volume calculations are more reliable, and that any planning level estimates must be done carefully, the following finding appears valid: under strict financial constraints that developing countries like Jordan are experiencing and under certain assumptions, planning level estimates can be used as an initial tool to estimate water storage volumes for small dikes with acceptable accuracy.     

An Optimization Approach for Multi-Sectoral Water Supply Management in the Greater Beirut Area

This paper presents a model that was developed and applied to serve as a water supply multi-sectoral decision support system for water resources management taking economic and socio-environmental factors into consideration. The applicability of the model was tested in the Greater Beirut Area by examining future supply-demand management alternatives and quantifying the cost-benefit of viable policies. The effect of eliminating a particular source to account for resources depletion and public acceptability, as well as increased returns from water use were proven to affect greatly the water allocation scheme. The model can also be a useful tool to assess the effect of decreasing unit costs from water supply options (desalination) and the resulting breakeven point, and the effect of increased water demand due to unplanned growth (tourism).     

Facing Water Scarcity in Jordan

Abstract

Jordan is extremely water-scarce with just 167 m³ per capita per year to meet domestic, industrial, agricultural, tourism, and environmental demands. The heavy exploitation of water resources has contributed to declines in the levels of aquifers and the Dead Sea. Rapid growth in demand, particularly for higher quality water for domestic, industrial, and tourism uses, is significantly increasing pressure on agricultural and environmental uses of water, both of which must continue to adapt to reduced volumes and lower quality water. The agricultural sector has begun to respond by improving irrigation efficiency and increasing the use of recycled water. Total demand for water still exceeds renewable supplies while inadequate treatment of sewage used for irrigation creates potential environmental and health risks and presents agricultural marketing challenges that undermine the competitiveness of exports. The adaptive capability of the natural environment may already be past sustainable limits with oasis wetlands having been most seriously affected. Development of new water resources is extremely expensive in Jordan with an average investment cost of US$4 to $5 per cubic meter. This paper examines four integrated water resources management (IWRM) approaches of relevance to Jordan: water reuse, demand management, energy-water linkages, and transboundary water management. While progress in Jordan has been made, the Ministry of Water and Irrigation continues to be concerned about the acute water scarcity the country faces as well as the need to continue working with concerned stakeholders to assure future water supplies.     

Strategic optimization for implementing the Jordanian National Water Master Plan

The Jordan National Water Master Plan integrates multiple efforts to address the national water shortage, but suffers problems in implementation. The systems analysis-based approach proposed here involves stakeholders in defining: study areas/issues, flow limits (based on infrastructural, sustainability and management reasons), and the optimization objective function. The approach includes using a newly developed computer optimization model to speed analysis of stakeholder proposals. The optimization model calculates multi-period water distribution and allocation strategies, minimizing unsatisfied demand or optimizing economic effect. Implementing the approach would identify opportunities for improving water supply, conveyance and demand management, and help investment planning and international negotiations. It is transferable to other countries.     

Towards the Establishment of Water Management in Abu Dhabi Emirate

The Abu Dhabi Emirate is the largest of the seven emirates that compose the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Parallel to the growth of the country, the Abu Dhabi Emirate has witnessed remarkable development in many aspects of life over the past 35 years. This rapid development into a modern urban environment and the accompanying surge in population, caused by a major influx of foreign labor, have been imposing tremendous pressure on natural resources including water. The challenges of maintaining a sustainable freshwater supply in the Abu Dhabi Emirate are many. Conventional water resources are limited. Surface water is almost absent due to the scarcity of rainfall coupled with arid conditions. Groundwater is mostly brackish and nonrenewable. Over-pumping practices have resulted in a severe decline in groundwater levels and quality. The growing salinity in the ground water has impacted the increased salinity of agricultural land. In addition, water availability and demand are both subject to seasonal fluctuations, particularly during the hot and humid summer months. In the Abu Dhabi Emirate there is a high demand for freshwater used for irrigation of farmland, forests and landscaping; industrial and commercial uses; amenities and domestic use. A large portion of this demand is provided by desalinated water, which is expensive to produce. The need for rational water management is critical. Forecasting water demand is currently being used as the basis for the production expansion planning in order to meet the water demand for the emirate. With steady projected increases, the capacity to provide a continuous supply of freshwater is vital. Interruptions in the supply can be caused by emergencies and the minimum 1-year lead time needed for new desalination plant construction. Having an adequate storage system addresses some of the concerns related to establishing a freshwater supply. The Abu Dhabi Emirate needs long-term storage capacity equivalent to at least 1 year’s fresh water demand. One method of increasing this capacity is artificial recharge using excess produced desalinated water and treated wastewater. While there are currently pilot projects using this technique, more widespread use could be very beneficial. This paper describes the current water resources, water demands and techniques of storing water for future recovery in the emirate through artificial recharge techniques.