To what extent can theory account for the findings of road safety evaluation studies?

This paper proposes a conceptual framework that can be used to assess to what extent the findings of road safety evaluation research make sense from a theoretical point of view. The effects of road safety measures are modelled as passing through two causal chains. One of these, termed the engineering effect, refers to the intended effects of a road safety measure on a set of risk factors related to accident occurrence or injury severity. The engineering effect of road safety measures is modelled in terms of nine basic risk factors, one or more of which any road safety measure needs to influence in order to have the intended effect on accidents or injuries. The other causal chain producing the effects of road safety measures is termed the behavioural effect, and refers to road user behavioural adaptations to road safety measures. The behavioural effect is related to the engineering effect, in the sense that certain properties of the engineering effect of a road safety measure influence the likelihood that behavioural adaptation will occur. The behavioural effect of a road safety measure is modelled in terms of six factors that influence the likelihood that behavioural adaptation will occur. The nine basic risk factors representing the engineering effect of a road safety measure, and the six factors influencing the likelihood of behavioural adaptation can be used as checklists in assessing whether or not the findings of road safety evaluation studies make sense from a theoretical point of view. At the current state of knowledge, a more stringent evaluation of the extent to which theory can explain the findings of road safety evaluation studies is, in most cases, not possible.     

A meta-analysis of studies concerning the safety effects of daytime running lights on cars

A meta-analysis of 17 studies that have evaluated the effects on traffic safety of using daytime running lights (DRL) on cars is presented. A distinction is made between studies that have evaluated the effects of DRL on the accident rates of each car using it and studies that have evaluated changes in the total number of accidents in a country following the introduction of mandatory use of DRL. Three different definitions of the measure of safety effects are compared and their validity discussed. It is concluded that the use of DRL on cars reduces the number of multi-party daytime accidents by about 10–15% for cars using DRL. The estimated effects on the total number of accidents of introducing DRL laws are somewhat smaller, 3–12% reduction in multi-party daytime accidents, and are likely to contain uncontrolled confounding effects. There is no evidence to indicate that DRL affects types of accident other than multi-party daytime accidents.     

Accident prototypical scenarios, a tool for road safety research and diagnostic studies

The concept of prototypical accident scenario has been used since the late 1980s in French road safety research. A prototypical scenario can be defined as a prototype of the accident process corresponding to a series of accidents which are similar in terms of the chain of facts and causal relationships found throughout the various accident stages. This concept provides a means of combining and generalising the knowledge obtained from accident case studies, based on in-depth investigation methods or on detailed analyses of police reports. Applications of this concept are developed in both the field of traffic accident research and safety studies (diagnoses) in preparation for engineering measures or local safety policies. This paper presents the prototypical scenario concept, its theoretical background, and the way it is used for safety research and studies.     

Risk factors associated with traffic violations and accident severity in China

With the recent economic boom in China, vehicle volume and the number of traffic accident fatalities have become the highest in the world. Meanwhile, traffic accidents have become the leading cause of death in China. Systematically analyzing road safety data from different perspectives and applying empirical methods/implementing proper measures to reduce the fatality rate will be an urgent and challenging task for China in the coming years. In this study, we analyze the traffic accident data for the period 2006–2010 in Guangdong Province, China. These data, extracted from the Traffic Management Sector-Specific Incident Case Data Report, are the only officially available and reliable source of traffic accident data (with a sample size >7000 per year). In particular, we focus on two outcome measures: traffic violations and accident severity. Human, vehicle, road and environmental risk factors are considered. First, the results establish the role of traffic violations as one of the major risks threatening road safety. An immediate implication is: if the traffic violation rate could be reduced or controlled successfully, then the rate of serious injuries and fatalities would be reduced accordingly. Second, specific risk factors associated with traffic violations and accident severity are determined. Accordingly, to reduce traffic accident incidence and fatality rates, measures such as traffic regulations and legislation—targeting different vehicle types/driver groups with respect to the various human, vehicle and environment risk factors—are needed. Such measures could include road safety programs for targeted driver groups, focused enforcement of traffic regulations and road/transport facility improvements. Data analysis results arising from this study will shed lights on the development of similar (adjusted) measures to reduce traffic violations and/or accident fatalities and injuries, and to promote road safety in other regions.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of road traffic accidents in Oyo State, Nigeria

Studies on road traffic accidents in developing nations have been very scanty. In Nigeria in particular not much is known about accident phenomena. This paper is an account of a scientific investigation into the spatial and temporal characteristics of road traffic accidents in Oyo State, Nigeria. The study is based, principally, on the Nigerian Police Official documented road traffic accident statistics from January 1980 to December 1984. The study examined general features of road traffic accident occurrence in the state and undertook a critical analysis of both temporal and spatial dimensions of the problem. The study identified six traffic zones that could be designated as accident Black Spots in the state, to which priority attention should be given in any road safety programme. Moreover, the study attempted to explain some of the complex factors that might account for the observed spatial and temporal variation in road accidents frequency and fatality. Significantly, the study observed a consistently high number of road accidents during the months of March, September, and December, while fluctuatingly high and low accident figures are recorded for other months of the year. Some possible reasons for this temporal trend in accident occurrence is discussed.     

A preliminary evaluation of the impact of local accident information on the public perception of road safety

The World Health Organisation (WHO) estimate that road traffic accidents represent the third leading cause of “death and disease” worldwide. A number of countries have, therefore, launched safety campaigns that have reduced their fatalities. In almost every case, however, this reduction has not been matched by a fall in the total frequency of road traffic accidents. Low-severity incidents remain a significant problem. “Attribution error” provides one plausible explanation for this phenomenon. Most drivers believe that they are less likely to be involved in an accident than other motorists. Existing road safety campaigns do little to address this problem; they focus on national and regional statistics that often seem remote from the local experiences of road users. This paper, therefore, describes the design and development of a system to provide the general public with access to information on the location and circumstances of road accidents in a Scottish city. The closing sections describe the initial results from a psychometric study that is intended to determine whether the information provided by such an application will have any impact on individual risk perception.     

Safety effects of permanent running lights for bicycles: A controlled experiment

Making the use of daytime running lights mandatory for motor vehicles is generally documented to have had a positive impact upon traffic safety. Improving traffic safety for bicyclists is a focal point in the road traffic safety work in Denmark. In 2004 and 2005 a controlled experiment including 3845 cyclists was carried out in Odense, Denmark in order to examine, if permanent running lights mounted to bicycles would improve traffic safety for cyclists. The permanent running lights were mounted to 1845 bicycles and the accident rate was recorded through 12 months for this treatment group and 2000 other bicyclists, the latter serving as a control group without bicycle running lights. The safety effect of the running lights is analysed by comparing incidence rates – number of bicycle accidents recorded per man-month – for the treatment group and the control group. The incidence rate, including all recorded bicycle accidents with personal injury to the participating cyclist, is 19% lower for cyclists with permanent running lights mounted; indicating that the permanent bicycle running light significantly improves traffic safety for cyclists. The study shows that use of permanent bicycle running lights reduces the occurrence of multiparty accidents involving cyclists significantly. In the study the bicycle accidents were recorded trough self-reporting on the Internet. Possible shortcomings and problems related to this accident recording are discussed and analysed.     

Effects on road safety of new urban arterial roads

This paper presents an evaluation of the effects on road safety of new urban arterial roads in Oslo, Norway, and a synthesis of evidence from similar studies that have evaluated the safety effects of new urban arterial roads in other cities. A before-and-after study was made of four urban arterial road projects in Oslo. The study controlled for general accident trends in Oslo and for regression-to-the-mean. A statistically non-significant reduction of 9% in the number of injury accidents was found for all four projects combined. The effects on safety of new urban arterial roads were found to vary, depending on whether a new arterial road was built, or an existing arterial road upgraded by means of lane additions and reconstruction of junctions to interchanges. New arterial roads tend to induce more traffic, which tends to offset the benefits of a lower accident rate on the new roads. The results for other cities are very consistent with those for Oslo. For a total of seven cases in which new arterial roads were built, a statistically non-significant reduction of 1% in the number of injury accidents was found. Two cases that involved lane additions and converting at-grade junctions to interchanges resulted in a mean accident reduction of 51%, which was highly significant. On the average, the nine arterial road projects from which evidence was summarised resulted in a net induced traffic of 16%, and a net reduction in accident rate (accidents per million vehicle kilometres) of 18%. These effects almost cancel each other, leading to a very small net change in the expected number of accidents.     

Quantifying safety benefit of winter road maintenance: Accident frequency modeling

This research presents a modeling approach to investigate the association of the accident frequency during a snow storm event with road surface conditions, visibility and other influencing factors controlling for traffic exposure. The results have the premise to be applied for evaluating different maintenance strategies using safety as a performance measure. As part of this approach, this research introduces a road surface condition index as a surrogate measure of the commonly used friction measure to capture different road surface conditions. Data from various data sources, such as weather, road condition observations, traffic counts and accidents, are integrated and used to test three event-based models including the Negative Binomial model, the generalized NB model and the zero inflated NB model. These models are compared for their capability to explain differences in accident frequencies between individual snow storms. It was found that the generalized NB model best fits the data, and is most capable of capturing heterogeneity other than excess zeros. Among the main results, it was found that the road surface condition index was statistically significant influencing the accident occurrence. This research is the first showing the empirical relationship between safety and road surface conditions at a disaggregate level (event-based), making it feasible to quantify the safety benefits of alternative maintenance goals and methods.     

Multiple-vehicle traffic accidents in Hong Kong

‘Multiple-vehicle traffic accident’ refers to a crash between two or more moving objects. Unlike single-vehicle accidents, not all drivers involving in a multiple-vehicle accident are responsible for the occurrence of the event. Accordingly, variables such as road type, speed limit and number of vehicles involved in the accident are expected to play a much more important role in association with injury severity in multiple-vehicle accidents. To study the factors influencing injury severity of multiple-vehicle traffic accidents, a population-based study was conducted. The traffic accident data was obtained from the Traffic Accident Data System (TRADS), which was developed by the Transport Department, Police Force and Information Technology Services Department, Hong Kong. Multiple-vehicle traffic accidents (N = 10,630) occurring during the 2-year period 1999/2000 were considered. Potential risk factors such as district, human, vehicle, safety, environmental and site factors were examined. Categorizing injury severity into “fatal/serious” and “slight”, a stepwise logistic regression model was applied to the population data set. The district board, time of the accident, driver's gender, vehicle type, road type, speed limit and the number of vehicles involved are significant factors influencing the injury severity. Identification of risk factors for severe traffic accidents provides valuable information to help with new and improved road safety control measures.     

The importance of confounding in observational before-and-after studies of road safety measures

This paper discusses the importance of confounding in observational before-and-after studies of road safety measures. The importance of the approach taken to controlling for confounding factors is shown by means of examples. It is shown that the size of the effect on accidents attributed to a road safety measure can be profoundly affected by which confounding factors are controlled for in an evaluation study, and the way this is done. Simple before-and-after studies, not controlling for any confounding factors should never be trusted and are likely to overstate the effects of road safety measures.     

The influence of economic incentives linked to road safety indicators on accidents: The case of toll concessions in Spain

The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether the incentives incorporated in toll highway concession contracts in order to encourage private operators to adopt measures to reduce accidents are actually effective at improving safety. To this end, we implemented negative binomial regression models using information about highway characteristics and accident data from toll highway concessions in Spain from 2007 to 2009. Our results show that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not managed by the contractor, such as the annual average daily traffic (AADT), the percentage of heavy vehicles on the highway, number of lanes, number of intersections and average speed; the implementation of these incentives has a positive influence on the reduction of accidents and injuries. Consequently, this measure seems to be an effective way of improving safety performance in road networks.     

Models relating traffic safety with road environment and traffic flows on arterial roads in Addis Ababa

This paper presents the study carried out to develop accident predictive models based on the data collected on arterial roads in Addis Ababa. Poisson and negative binomial regression methods were used to relate the discrete accident data with the road and traffic flow explanatory variables. Significant accident predictive models were found with a number of significant explanatory variables. The results show that the existing inadequate road infrastructure and poor road traffic operations are the potential contributors of this ever-growing challenge of the road transport in Addis Ababa. The results also indicate that improvements in roadway width, pedestrian facilities, and access management are effective in reducing road traffic accidents.     

Drink driving and traffic accidents in young people

The relationship between drink driving behaviours and rates of traffic accidents was analysed in a birth cohort of 907 New Zealand young people studied to the age of 21. Drink driving was significantly (P<0.0001) related to active traffic accidents in which the driver’s behaviour contributed to the accident but was not related to passive accidents in which driver behaviours did not contribute to the accident (P>0.15). Those engaging in high rates of drink driving had rates of active traffic accidents that were 2.6 times higher than those who did not drink and drive. Further analysis suggested that much of this association was explained by confounding factors (and notably driver behaviour) that were associated with both drink driving and accident rates. After adjustment for confounding factors, those engaging in high rates of drink driving had rates of active accidents that were 1.5 (P<0.01) times higher than those who did not drink and drive. It is concluded that although the study findings support the view that the regulation of drink driving behaviour amongst young people is likely to contribute to a reduction in traffic accidents, to be fully effective attempts at regulation of drink driving also need to be accompanied by a similar level of investment in regulating other aspects of risky or illegal driving behaviour amongst young people.     

Prediction of accidents at full green and green arrow traffic lights in Switzerland with the aid of configuration-specific features

In this study it was endeavored to predict full green and green arrow accidents at traffic lights, using configuration-specific features. This was done using the statistical method known as Poisson regression. A total of 45 sets of traffic lights (criteria: in an urban area, with four approach roads) with 178 approach roads were investigated (the data from two approach roads was unable to be used). Configuration-specific features were surveyed on all approach roads (characteristics of traffic lanes, road signs, traffic lights, etc.), traffic monitored and accidents (full green and green arrow) recorded over a period of 5 consecutive years. It was demonstrated that only between 23 and 34% of variance could be explained with the models predicting both types of accidents. In green arrow accidents, the approach road topography was found to be the major contributory factor to an accident: if the approach road slopes downwards, the risk of a green arrow accident is approximately five and a half times greater (relative risk, RR = 5.56) than on a level or upward sloping approach road. With full green accidents, obstructed vision plays the major role: where vision can be obstructed by vehicles turning off, the accident risk is eight times greater (RR = 8.08) than where no comparable obstructed vision is possible. From the study it emerges that technical features of traffic lights are not able to control a driver's actions in such a way as to eradicate error. Other factors, in particular the personal characteristics of the driver (age, sex, etc.) and accident circumstances (lighting, road conditions, etc.), are likely to make an important contribution to explaining how an accident occurs.     

Accident prediction models for urban roads

This paper describes some of the main findings from two separate studies on accident prediction models for urban junctions and urban road links described in [Uheldsmodel for bygader-Del1: Modeller for 3-og 4-benede kryds. Notat 22, The Danish Road Directorate, 1995; Uheldsmodel for bygader- Del2: Modeller for straekninger. Notat 59, The Danish Road Directorate, 1998] (Greibe and Hemdorff, 1995, 1988).The main objective for the studies was to establish simple, practicable accident models that can predict the expected number of accidents at urban junctions and road links as accurately as possible. The models can be used to identify factors affecting road safety and in relation to 'black spot' identification and network safety analysis undertaken by local road authorities.The accident prediction models are based on data from 1036 junctions and 142 km road links in urban areas. Generalised linear modelling techniques were used to relate accident frequencies to explanatory variables.The estimated accident prediction models for road links were capable of describing more than 60% of the systematic variation ('percentage-explained' value) while the models for junctions had lower values. This indicates that modelling accidents for road links is less complicated than for junctions, probably due to a more uniform accident pattern and a simpler traffic flow exposure or due to lack of adequate explanatory variables for junctions.Explanatory variables describing road design and road geometry proved to be significant for road link models but less important in junction models. The most powerful variable for all models was motor vehicle traffic flow.     

Analyzing fault and severity in pedestrian–motor vehicle accidents in China

The number of pedestrian–motor vehicle accidents and pedestrian deaths in China surged in recent years. However, a large scale empirical research on pedestrian traffic crashes in China is lacking. In this study, we identify significant risk factors associated with fault and severity in pedestrian–motor vehicle accidents. Risk factors in several different dimensions, including pedestrian, driver, vehicle, road and environmental factors, are considered. We analyze 6967 pedestrian traffic accident reports for the period 2006–2010 in Guangdong Province, China. These data, obtained from the Guangdong Provincial Security Department, are extracted from the Traffic Management Sector-Specific Incident Case Data Report. Pedestrian traffic crashes have a unique inevitability and particular high risk, due to pedestrians’ fragility, slow movement and lack of lighting equipment. The empirical analysis of the present study has the following policy implications. First, traffic crashes in which pedestrians are at fault are more likely to cause serious injuries or death, suggesting that relevant agencies should pay attention to measures that prevent pedestrians from violating traffic rules. Second, both the attention to elderly pedestrians, male and experienced drivers, the penalty to drunk driving, speeding, driving without a driver's license and other violation behaviors should be strengthened. Third, vehicle safety inspections and safety training sessions for truck drivers should be reinforced. Fourth, improving the road conditions and road lighting at night are important measures in reducing the probability of accident casualties. Fifth, specific road safety campaigns in rural areas, and education programs especially for young children and teens should be developed and promoted. Moreover, we reveal a country-specific factor, hukou, which has significant effect on the severity in pedestrian accidents due to the discrepancy in the level of social insurance/security, suggesting that equal social security level among urban and rural people should be set up. In addition, establishing a comprehensive liability distribution system for non-urban areas and roadways will be conducive to both pedestrians’ and drivers’ voluntary compliance with traffic rules.     

The effects on accidents of studded tires and laws banning their use: a meta-analysis of evaluation studies

Studies that have evaluated the effects on accidents of studded tires are reviewed. There are two types of evaluation studies with respect to the safety effects of studded tires: (1) Studies of the effect on automobile accident rates of using studded tires; and (2) studies of the effect on accidents of banning the use of studded tires. The results of studies of the effects of studded tires on automobile accident rates are found to vary substantially, depending on the quality of the study design. Recent studies employing multivariate techniques of analysis to control for confounding factors, attribute to studded tires minor declines in automobile accident rates of 5% for snow- or ice-covered roads, 2% for bare roads and 4% for all road surfaces combined. The results of these studies are consistent with the most recent estimates of the effect on accidents of banning studded tires. It is concluded that studded tires probably confer a slight safety benefit during wintertime.     

Sources of error in road safety scheme evaluation: a quantified comparison of current methods

This paper considers the various factors that can have a confounding effect in the evaluation of road safety schemes and examines the extent to which current methods can effectively deal with these. A modification to current methods is proposed which allows the reduction in accidents attributable to risk and flow changes to be separately evaluated. Data are presented to demonstrate the relative magnitudes of the various sources of error. It is shown that a principal source of error is normally regression-to-mean (RTM) and a correction for this effect should always be applied. Changes in traffic flow can also result in substantial accident changes and it is important to establish whether flow changes have occurred and if they are attributable to the effect of the scheme.     

Factors contributing to young moped rider accidents in Denmark

Young road users still constitute a high-risk group with regard to road traffic accidents. The crash rate of a moped is four times greater than that of a motorcycle, and the likelihood of being injured in a road traffic accident is 10–20 times higher among moped riders compared to car drivers. Nevertheless, research on the behaviour and accident involvement of young moped riders remains sparse.Based on analysis of 128 accident protocols, the purpose of this study was to increase knowledge about moped accidents. The study was performed in Denmark involving riders aged 16 or 17. A distinction was made between accident factors related to (1) the road and its surroundings, (2) the vehicle, and (3) the reported behaviour and condition of the road user. Thirteen accident factors were identified with the majority concerning the reported behaviour and condition of the road user. The average number of accident factors assigned per accident was 2.7. Riding speed was assigned in 45% of the accidents which made it the most frequently assigned factor on the part of the moped rider followed by attention errors (42%), a tuned up moped (29%) and position on the road (14%). For the other parties involved, attention error (52%) was the most frequently assigned accident factor. The majority (78%) of the accidents involved road rule breaching on the part of the moped rider.The results indicate that preventive measures should aim to eliminate violations and increase anticipatory skills among moped riders and awareness of mopeds among other road users. Due to their young age the effect of such measures could be enhanced by infrastructural measures facilitating safe interaction between mopeds and other road users.