Thirty years with spatial and intertemporal economics

In this paper the practical origin and development of the spatial and intertemporal price equilibrium (SIPE) models are chronologically followed around the personal life of the author. The fact that both the Marshallian (quantity) formulation and the Walrasian (price) formulation have been with the Takayama-Judge models in the primal-dual (purified-duality) relationship from the outset is pointed out. Historical use and abuse of large scale models in the past two decades, closely related to the SIPE models, are discussed. The author acknowledges recent developments of methodologies by younger generation researchers in this field and concludes that along with the recent development of high-powered computers and softwares, there will be a number of interesting and relevant SIPE model applications in the near future.This paper was first read at an international conference on Trade, Knowledge and the Network Economy, in Mallacoota, Victoria, Australia, and was revised to present for the workshop entitled Advances in Spatial Equilibrium Modeling held at the new Tinbergen Institute in Amsterdam, Netherlands on January 24–25, 1994.The author would like to express his gratitude to Professors Martin Beckmann, Peter Nijkamp, Dr. John R. Roy and an anonymous referee for their numerous comments and advice in revising this paper. Any remaining omissions and commissions are my own.This paper was presented in draft form at an International Workshop on Trade, Knowledge and the Network Economy, held in December 1992 in Mallacoota, Australia.     

Regional economic growth by policy-induced capital flows: I. Theoretical approach

In view of regional income disparities this paper discusses alternative allocation strategies of regional economic growth policy: movement of the workers to the jobs (passive factor stocks adjustment) versus jobs to the workers (active factor stocks adjustment). For policy evaluation of this classical question a dynamic two-regions model is presented (Part I). Its implications will be analyzed on the basis of selected parameters to give an example of possible model applications (Part II). In Part I the analysis will start with general remarks on model construction (stressing the relevance of supply-side growth barriers), then describe the relationships of the model and finally refer to some selected aspects of possible extensions (introduction of a third region as the outside world of the two regions, modification of the model to deal with the no-growth case, consideration of the size of regions, and incorporation of independent regional investment functions). The concluding remarks will focus on the essential policy parameters of the model.The author wishes to thank Reiner Wolff, Paderborn, Georg Zink, Siegen, and Norbert Matthes, Bonn, for their permanent readiness to discuss earlier drafts of both parts of this paper. Also the author gratefully acknowledges the useful comments of an anonymous referee.     

Intermediate goods and the location of productive activity

This paper assesses the impact of the production and use of an intermediate good upon the location of productive activity in an economy consisting of two asymmetrically sized regions. The Nash equilibria of locations of an upstream and two downstream firms are completely defined in the the space of parameters transport cost and intensity of vertical linkages. While the relationship between transport cost and agglomeration is usually regarded as a decreasing one, the inclusion of an intermediate good can make it nonmonotonic.Received: September 2003/Accepted:01 March 2004The author wishes to thank the Editor of The Annals of Regional Science and three anonymous referees for helpful comments. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Geographically and technologically mediated knowledge spillovers between European regions

This paper aims at investigating inter-regional knowledge spillovers across European sub-national regions. The basic questions that we wish to answer may be formulated in the following way: do regional geographical and technological proximities matter for the creation of new knowledge within the European regional landscape? After a review of the related literature, we consider a regional knowledge production function that allows for extra regional innovation-generating inputs. Accounting for regional specific social capability, this knowledge production function is applied to an extended sample of 153 European sub-national regions over the period 1989–1996. Interregional knowledge spillovers are shown to exist between geographically close regions and between regions displaying similar technological profiles. However, technological proximity and geographical proximity coincides to a certain extent. Knowledge spillovers are mainly driven by the private business sector. If knowledge spillovers occur within a given country, the national border turns out to seriously hamper interregional spillovers on the European scale. The author wishes to thank Eckhardt Bode, Henri Capron, Raymond J.G.M. Florax, Charlie Karlsson, Roger Stough and Roger Vickerman for their useful comments and suggestions. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 41st Annual Meeting of the Western Regional Science Association in February 2002, Monterey, California.     

City-forming propensities in a central place hierarchy: Application of Beckmann-Mcpherson model to the Turkish urban system

The paper analyzes the city-forming propensities, the service factors, in the Turkish central place hierarchy at the regional and national levels. It is built on the premise posited by Christaller that a functional relationship exists between the population of a central place and its complementary area. Following Beckmann and McPherson and utilizing data from a countrywide survey, city-forming propensities are calculated for the sixteen-functional regions and the nation to see whether any systematic variation occurs between the k patterns. The basic Beckmann-McPherson model is modified to take into account of the variable K hierarchy of the Turkish system and the non-central (non-nodal), primarily agricultural, activities in the 1st order central places. To take account of the latter factor, notional populations are calculated for the 1st order centers, and these, rather than the actual populations, are used in finding the sets of city-forming propensities. In the 2nd part of the paper, the factors behind the variations between the regional k values are analyzed. Population density, per-capita income and the employment-activity-structure, particularly the extent of manufacturing employment, are found to be the main determinants of the variation in k values both within and between regions.     

Path-dependent processes and the emergence of the rank size rule

Many things in the natural world consist of an ever-larger number of ever-smaller pieces. This is called a fractal, which implies both the power law and rank size rule. Various models have been applied to explain the power law or Zipfs law in the distribution of city size. Gibrats law proposes general and neat interpretations for this regularity in a city distribution, but the homogeneity assumption in Gibrats law shows a disregard of the agglomeration effect that is essential in economic interpretation. The purpose of this paper is to examine the relation between the feature of increasing returns in the dynamic growth process and the property of power law in the static limiting distribution. We apply the path-dependent processes in Authur (2000) called nonlinear Polya processes to analyze the relation between the feature of agglomeration in the path-dependent processes and rank-size relations in the limiting distributions. The simulation result shows that the growth process with a diminishing returns agglomeration economy or a bounded increasing returns agglomeration economy converges to a stable limiting distribution with a constant expected proportion. On the contrary, the growth process with an unbounded increasing returns agglomeration economy could generate a fractal kind of limiting distribution with a time variant expected value. The unbounded increasing returns agglomeration economy is the necessary condition to generate the rank size rule in the limiting distribution. Given the assumption of agglomeration economies and robust evidence of Zipfs in city distribution, our result suggests that agglomeration benefits increase without a ceiling as residents are added to the city. The increase of the diseconomies of agglomeration (congestion, pollution, crime, etc.) is not too severe to confine the limiting level of the net agglomeration effect.The author acknowledges the National Science Council for the financial support on the study (Project NSC 91–2415-H-004–016).Received: July 2002 / Accepted: March 2003     

On the Seismic Risk of Electric-Discharge Technology Employed for the Production of Piles Injected into Predrilled Holes

Questions concerning the similitude of seismic oscillations during an electric discharge in a hole and the detonation of explosives are examined; data are presented for field measurements; the parameters of oscillations generated during an electric discharge are compared with those based on existing standards for seismic-blast effects, and also with results obtained by a number of researchers. Selection of the characteristics of an electric blast to ensure seismic safety of the procedure under consideration is substantiated.privately owned joint-stock Company RITA     

Start-up activities,individual characteristics,and the regional milieu: Lessons for entrepreneurship support policies from German micro data

This paper contributes to empirical research on the role of regional policy for entrepreneurship by focusing on the link between two stylized facts that emerged from a number of studies for Germany and other countries: Entry rates differ between regions, and the propensity to become an entrepreneur is influenced by socio-demographic variables and attitudes. We develop a theoretical framework to discuss this link, and we test whether for a person of a given age, degree of schooling, attitude towards risk etc. regional variables and, therefore, regional policies, do matter for the decision to start a new business ceteris paribus. Our econometric study is based on data for 10.000 persons from a recent representative survey of the population in ten German planning regions, the Regional Entrepreneurship Monitor (REM). We use a version of the probit model that takes care of the regional stratification of the data, and the results of the nonlinear models are carefully interpreted and illustrated. We find that the propensity to step into self-employment is, among others, higher for males, unemployed, people with contacts to a role model, and with past entrepreneurial experience, who live in more densely populated and faster growing regions with higher rates of new firm formation, while risk aversion and high prices of land have the opposite impact. Interestingly, it does not matter whether the region has a left or right government. However, many implications for entrepreneurship supporting policies in German regions are discussed in the final section.Research for this paper was done as part of the project Regional Entrepreneurship Monitor REM Germany financially supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG STE 628/7-1/2 and WA 610/2-1/2). We thank two anonymous referees and the guest editors of this issue for comments that led to an extensive revision of an earlier version.     

Alternative approaches to the estimation of economic impacts resulting from supply constraints: Comment and elaboration

Davis and Salkin previously derived impact equations for supply constraints in terms of partitioned direct coefficients matrices under alternative assumptions. This paper derives equivalent equations under both assumptions but in terms of partitioned inverses. Impacts of supply constraints then may be interpreted by means of corresponding gross output multipliers, and in terms of the total (direct and indirect) effects of the supply constraints.Formerly Senior Economist, Federal Emergency Management Agency.     

Convergence and transition auspice of Chinese regional growth

This paper reconsiders the question of regional convergence in China. Barros convergence model and Theils regional inequality index are applied in the study. Analytical results reject the absolute convergence hypothesis in the Chinese case, but suggest a conditional convergence pattern. As for China as one system, it is further discovered that there exists a complex phenomenon that the three regions, the east, the mid and the west, converge to different equilibria respectively. Therefore, the mid and the west break through the existing system structure to reach the high level like that of the east is a crucial task of Chinese economic development. A detailed inversed U-shape analysis leads to two important findings. First, it discovers that the regional disparities between the east region and the rest of China are widening, while the regional disparity between the mid and the west is shrinking. Second, the Chinese regional economy has reached the critical point of divergence-convergence transition in terms of stages of national economic development according to Williamsons theoretical model. This gives the state government some room for doing something to make the convergence happen at an early possible time.Received: July 2002/Accepted: January 2003     

Regional labor force participation and the discouraged worker hypothesis: Some empirical evidence

The purpose of this paper is to clarify the economic determination of the regional labor supply. In explaining the regional level of labor force participation two models are compared: the unemployment model based on the discouraged worker hypothesis and the neoclassical model of labor force participation. It is shown that a migration model complements the neoclassical model and provides an alternative interpretation of the discouraged worker hypothesis, this reinterpretation provides an explanation for the failure of the unemployment model at the regional level when it is quite successful at the national level.     

A continuous Leontief dynamic input-output model

This paper extends the Leontief dynamic input-output model by incorporating continuous lags, capacity constraints, excess capacity and limits on disinvestment in each sector. These extensions result in phase changes, where sectors discretely change from one set of conditions to another. The resulting system of equations is solved by numerical methods and applied to the U.S. economy. Projections for the 1952 to 1962 period are compared with actual levels.     

Smoke Control in Hospitals

Full scale fire tests have been carried out in order to study the influence of different ventilating principles on the time point of fire detection and the smoke filling of a four-bed room. Using conventional mechanical ventilating systems as smoke exhaust systems the time difference left for evacuation of the fire room can be positively influenced. With the conventional ventilating system operating there is a significant difference between time points of detection of the ionization and optical smoke detectors, for both flaming and smoldering fire. Using the low momentum displacement ventilation this difference is reduced, resulting in possibilities for the ionization smoke detector to be optimized for both flaming and smoldering fires. Reference: Øystein Meland and Eimund Skåret, Smoke Control in Hospitals,Fire Technology, Vol. 22, No. 1, February 1986, p. 33.     

Combinatorial procedures for the analysis of alternate models: An example from interregional migration

In this paper we present a methodology for comparing the adequacy of two or more models in terms of how well they represent a given data set. A set of interregional migration models is tested, including several variations of push-pull models, Wilson's entropy maximizing model, a quadratic programming solution, and and ANOVA model. Testing is undertaken using a heuristic procedure based on a pair by pair comparison of models to see which one best represents migration flows as estimated by the Census Bureau. The results of the pairwise testing are presented visually in a matrix map which allows us to illustrate the degree to which a perfect ordering of the comparison indices exists, and the degree to which individual models cluster together.     

The concept of local development: A stages model of endogenous regional growth

The concept of local development is defined as a particular form of regional development, one in which endogenous factors occupy a central position. A stages model of local development is proposed: 1) the emergence of local entrepreneurship; 2) the take off of local enterprises; 3) the expansion of these enterprises beyond the local region; and 4) the achievement of a regional economic structure that is based upon local initiatives and locally created comparative advantages. The theoretical and empirical foundations of this model are examined, with particular emphasis upon the roles of the entrepreneur and of human capital in the process of economic growth, and upon the spatial effects of the expansion of the firm.This paper was originally written and presented in French under the title of Le concept de développement local en sciences régionales: voies de réflexion et de recherche.     

A first approximation method for smoke detector placement based on design fire size,critical velocity,and detector aerosol entry lag time

An analog light-scattering-type smoke detector was tested in a wind tunnel at various low velocities. The air flow in the wind tunnel contained an aerosol concentration that resulted in a high ambient optical density, simulating smoke well above threshold optical detector density. The objective of this research was to determine the lag time to alarm, t, associated with difficulty of smoke entry into a detector. A critical velocity was identified for the smoke detector, below which the lag time increased exponentially with decreasing velocity. Increased lag time results in the detector responding unacceptably late—or not at all—even when ambient obscuration is well above limits defined in UL standard tests.A preliminary method for placing smoke detectors has been developed, based on a user-defined design fire size and the detector aerosol-entry lag time. The preliminary method applies only to flaming fires producing smoke, with the detector far from a wall and mounted on smooth ceilings. The critical velocity value used in the examples in this paper applies only to the smoke detector configuration tested in this work, at the evaluated sensitivity setting, with the optical densities reached using the generated artificial smoke. Any variation in detector housing, design, operation principle, or application with different aerosols requires specific tests to determine a different critical velocity.This paper provides the basis for further development of a smoke detector placement method based on a design fire size and the proposed detector critical velocity concept. It does not presume to report a unique critical velocity for all smoke detectors, but suggests that such a value may indeed exist, but with differing values among different smoke detectors.     

Development and Application of the Fire Brigade Intervention Model

A performance based building code [1] was introduced in Australia in 1996. In order that fire brigades could ensure that their functional role was maintained in the building code, a method of quantifying fire brigade roles was required. In response to this issue, the Australasian Fire Authorities Council (AFAC) formed a Performance Based Fire Engineering Committee. This committee developed a model that determines the time taken by a fire brigade to undertake its activities at a fire scene.The Fire Brigade Intervention Model [2] is an event-based methodology, which quantifies fire brigade responses employed during a structure fire from time of notification through to control and extinguishment. It has been primarily developed for use in fire engineering design in a performance based regulatory environment so that the functional role of a fire brigade can be effectively incorporated into the building design process. It establishes a structured framework necessary to both determine and measure fire brigade activities on a time-line basis. It interacts with the output of other sub-systems, which model such events as fire growth, smoke spread, fire spread, detection and suppression as well as occupant avoidance.This paper describes the Fire Brigade Intervention Model, now available for use by fire brigades and fire engineers. The model has been developed for specific case and site analysis and is applicable to most structural fire scenarios. As the expertise of the local fire brigade will be incorporated inthe input parameters, it is valid for most brigade types, crew sizes and resource limitations.This paper also describes ongoing developments including a training package and computer program.The terms fire brigade and fire department are synonymous.     

Regional economic growth by policy-induced capital flows: II. Policy simulation results

This second part of the paper refers to a model, described in Part I, that has been designed to analyze alternative allocation strategies of regional economic growth policy: movement of the workers to the jobs (passive factor stocks adjustment) or jobs to the workers (active factor stocks adjustment). After concentrating on the main properties of the model structure, the references of the parameters and initial values to empirical data are discussed. Model results derived on the basis of parameters representative for the case of passive adjustment policy are studied, also extensively taking account of the impacts of parameter variations. Then follows the analysis of simulation results of active adjustment. The main purpose of all calculations is to demonstrate that the model is able to generate reasonable and consistent policy effects. Moreover, with respect to the model and its parameters this paper attempts to contribute to finding a solid standpoint as to the preconditions of a successful active regional economic policy.The author is indebted to Petra Leutloff, Darmstadt, for setting up and running the computer program for the numerical implementation of the model. At later dates numerical results were produced by Georg Zink and Hagen Bobzin, Siegen.     

Assessing toxic hazard as it relates to overall fire hazard

A framework is proposed for assessing hazards associated with the spread of smoke and hot gases from fires in buildings, and the current predictive capabilities for each component of that framework are described. Particular attention is given to the significance of the toxicity of the combustion products of a material in relation to its other fire properties. The prediction of the onset of hazardous conditions in a three room residential arrangement with upholstered furniture as the burning object is presented to illustrate the usefulness of the National Bureau of Standards (NBS) smoke transport computer code, a key component of the framework. Reference: Andrew J. Fowell, Assessing Toxic Hazard as It Relates to Overall Fire Hazard,Fire Technology, Vol. 21, No. 3, August 1985, pp. 199.