Correction to: Application of a Bayesian Watershed Model Linking Multivariate Statistical Analysis to Support Watershed-Scale Nitrogen Management in China

Water Resources Management - Unfortunately in the original version of this article, the Electronic Supplementary Material was unintentionally omitted during the publishing process     

An Operational Model for Support of Integrated Watershed Management

This paper presents a computer simulation-based methodology for operational support of integrated water resources management. The methodology is based on the systems approach, and use of feedback to capture physical and socio-economic processes occurring within a watershed. The approach integrates well established simulation models of physical processes with simulation models that describe socio-economic processes. The proposed methodology is illustrated by the evaluation of risk and vulnerability to changing climatic and socio-economic conditions in the Upper Thames watershed (south-western Ontario, Canada).The model results indicate that flooding in the watershed will be more severe as a result of climate change, while low flows are expected to remain at their current level. The most significant socio-economic factor in the Upper Thames watershed is water availability, shown to become under climate change a limiting factor for future growth and development.     

The Implementation of a Bayesian Network for Watershed Management Decisions

Recently, the U.S. EPA issued the 303(d) list of impaired waters in Idaho State that contained the causes of impairment. This 303(d) list provides useful information that can be used to determine the Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs). Implementation of TMDLs should result in pollutant reductions, which, in turn can lead to the restoration of these water bodies. Flow alteration is one of the potential sources of impairments in the Big Lost River in south-central Idaho, which have some negative impacts on the water quality and beneficial uses. Flow in the Big Lost River is altered, both in quantity and quality, and this reduces recreation activities, affects the fish assemblage, and changes the composition and relative abundance of aquatic species. The effect of riparian vegetation is another factor that needs to be predicted. In addition, three conservation schemes (construction of upstream reservoirs, downstream reservoirs, and canal linings) were proposed to restore flow in the downstream reaches of the river and compensate for water loss during the low flood seasons. However, there is no single predictive model that can be used to appropriately represent each of these issues as management decisions. In this paper, an expert system in the form of a Bayesian network, a graphical diagram of nodes and arcs, was implemented to examine all significant water management variables and relationships among these variables. Lining the irrigation canals was found to be the best scheme, followed by constructing an upstream reservoir. The TMDLs would benefit the water quality in the watershed but would not significantly increase the water quantity and solve the flow alteration problem. Consequently, this can be used to determine the sequence of decisions that can be taken in the future.     

多元统计模型在水环境污染物源解析中的应用

源解析是指对污染物的来源进行定性或定量研究的技术,查明水环境中污染物来源是有效治理污染的前提。介绍了多元统计模型在水环境中污染物源解析方面的几种常用方法及其在国内外的研究、应用案例,分析了各模型的优缺点及其适用条件,指出了近年来对多元统计模型的优化研究情况。最后针对以往研究工作的不足和存在的问题,指出今后水环境污染物源解析研究的新思路:多元复合模型的应用,利用统计学知识对现有模型的优化改建,GIS与源解析统计模型的有效结合。     

A Multicriteria Group Decision Model to Support Watershed Committees in Brazil

The involvement of multiple decision makers in water resources management can be very complex, involving the possibilities of conflicts amongst the stakeholders and the influence of powerful members over the preference of others. The inherent characteristic of decisions also increases this complexity due to many alternatives being involved and there being multiple criteria. Some of these criteria conflict with each other and the consequences of which will have great impact on those involved and on third parties. Therefore, a group decision support system model based on multicriteria analysis can be a powerful tool to support this kind of management. This study presents a tool to support the committee responsible for the management of the watersheds in Brazil in order to promote decentralization and the participation of all involved in the water resources management. The tool provides a ranking of alternatives for the environmental recuperation of the watershed through the use of the multicriteria method PROMETHEE II. For each decision maker, the alternatives were ranked and then the individual rankings were combined into a global ranking which contained the preferences of the whole group.     

An Interval Fuzzy Multiobjective Watershed Management Model for the Lake Qionghai Watershed, China

Integrated watershed management is required to ensure the reasonable use of resources and reconcile interactions among natural and human systems. In the present study, an interval fuzzy multiobjective programming (IFMOP) method was used to solve an integrated watershed management problem. Based on system analysis, an IFMOP model suitable for a lake watershed system {IFMOPLWS} was developed and applied to the Lake Qionghai watershed in China. Scenario analysis and an interactive approach were used in the solution process. In this manner, various system components were incorporated into one framework for holistic consideration and optimization. Integrality and uncertainty, as well as the multiobjective and dynamic characteristics of the watershed system, were well addressed. Using two scenarios, two planning schemes were generated. Agriculture, tourism, macroeconomics, cropland use, water supply, forest coverage, soil erosion, and water pollution were fully interpreted and compared to identify a preferable planning alternative for local agencies. This study showed that the IFMOPLWS is a powerful tool for integrated watershed management planning and can provide a solid base for sustainable watershed management.     

我国流域管理研究述评

流域管理是现代水资源管理的发展方向。我国学者对于流域管理的研究现正如火如荼,本文对学者对流域管理的涵义、流域管理的理论依据、流域管理的立法及流域管理体制构建等问题的研究的最新进展进行综述和简要评述,以期为该项研究的深入尽绵薄之力。     

A Watershed Integrity Definition and Assessment Approach to Support Strategic Management of Watersheds

Watersheds are spatially explicit landscape units that contain a range of interacting physical, ecological and social attributes. They are social–ecological systems that provide a range of ecosystem services valued by the society. Their ability to provide these services depends, in part, on the degree to which they are impaired by human‐related activity. An array of indicators is used by natural resource managers, both private and government, to assess watersheds and their sub‐components. Often these assessments are performed in comparison with a reference condition. However, assessments can be hampered because natural settings of many systems differ from those sites used to characterize reference conditions. Additionally, given the ubiquity of human‐related alterations across landscapes (e.g. atmospheric deposition of anthropogenically derived nitrogen), truly unaltered conditions for most, if not all, watersheds cannot be described. Definitions of ‘integrity’ have been developed for river ecosystems, but mainly at the reach or site scale and usually for particular species, such as fish or macroinvertebrates. These scales are inappropriate for defining integrity at the watershed scale. In addition, current assessments of endpoints do not indicate the source of impairment. Our definition of watershed ‘integrity’ is the capacity of a watershed to support and maintain the full range of ecological processes and functions essential to the sustainability of biodiversity and of the watershed resources and services provided to society. To operationalize this definition as an assessment tool, we identify key functions of unimpaired watersheds. This approach can then be used to model and map watershed integrity by incorporating risk factors (human‐related alterations or stressors) that have been explicitly shown to interfere with and degrade key functions in watersheds. An advantage of this approach is that the index can be readily deconstructed to identify factors influencing index scores, thereby directly supporting the strategic adaptive management of individual components that contribute to watershed integrity. Moreover, the approach can be iteratively applied and improved as new data and information become available. © 2015 The Authors. River Research and Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

数字流域技术在流域现代化管理中的应用

针对新时期水利发展的战略性需求,提出数字流域基本概念,总结数字流域国内外研究进展,深入分析数字流域基础框架与技术标准、空天地协同流域综合监测体系、多源海量数据组织、处理与共享服务、多专业模型集成及应用等数字流域关键技术,并详细介绍数字流域技术在三峡工程运行管理中的应用实践,最后进行应用总结与展望。     

A Simulation-Based Optimization Model for Flood Management on a Watershed Scale

Using structural and nonstructural measures for flood damage reduction is a long-standing problem in water resources planning and management. In the present study, an algorithm is presented for the optimal design of structural and nonstructural flood mitigation measures based on simulation-based optimization approach. For this purpose, the MIKE-11 simulation model, a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model, was used to calculate the potential damages of different flood scenarios under the various combinations of structural and nonstructural measures and this model was coupled with the NSGA-II multi-objective optimization model to provide the optimal Pareto solutions between two conflict objectives of minimizing the investment costs of flood mitigation measures and the potential damages of the floodplain. The proposed model was then applied to a small watershed in central part of Iran as a case study and the optimal trade-off solutions were calculated for different flood scenarios. Using these trade-offs, for each level of funding, decision makers can assign the optimal design of flood mitigation measures considering decision criteria.     

Multivariate Bayesian Regression Approach to Forecast Releases from a System of Multiple Reservoirs

This research presents a model that simultaneously forecasts required water releases 1 and 2 days ahead from two reservoirs that are in series. In practice, multiple reservoir system operation is a difficult process that involves many decisions for real-time water resources management. The operator of the reservoirs has to release water from more than one reservoir taking into consideration different water requirements (irrigation, environmental issues, hydropower, recreation, etc.) in a timely manner. A model that forecasts the required real-time releases in advance from a multiple reservoir system could be an important tool to allow the operator of the reservoir system to make better-informed decisions for releases needed downstream. The model is developed in the form of a multivariate relevance vector machine (MVRVM) that is based on a sparse Bayesian regression model approach. With this Bayesian approach, a predictive confidence interval is obtained from the model that captures the uncertainty of both the model and the data. The model is applied to the multiple reservoir system located in the Lower Sevier River Basin near Delta, Utah. The results show that the model learns the input–output patterns with high accuracy. Computing multiple-time-ahead predictions in real-time would require a model which guarantees not only good prediction accuracy but also robustness with respect to future changes in the nature of the inputs data. A bootstrap analysis is used to guarantee good generalization ability and robustness of the MVRVM. Test results demonstrate good performance of predictions and statistics that indicate robust model generalization abilities. The MVRVM is compared in terms of performance and robustness with another multiple output model such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN).     

分解模型与贝叶斯方法在枯水分析中的应用

本文把随机分解模型应用到枯水径流分析与设计,用贝叶斯统计推断其中的偏态参数C_s。运用结果表明:分解模型能很好地模拟枯水过程,贝叶斯估计能利用区域信息推求模型参数,提高参数估计的稳健性和降低抽样误差。     

Joint Application of Artificial Neural Networks and Evolutionary Algorithms to Watershed Management

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have become common data driven tools for modeling complex, nonlinear problems in science and engineering. Many previous applications have relied on gradient-based search techniques, such as the back propagation (BP) algorithm, for ANN training. Such techniques, however, are highly susceptible to premature convergence to local optima and require a trial-and-error process for effective design of ANN architecture and connection weights. This paper investigates the use of evolutionary programming (EP), a robust search technique, and a hybrid EP–BP training algorithm for improved ANN design. Application results indicate that the EP–BP algorithm may limit the drawbacks of using local search algorithms alone and that the hybrid performs better than EP from the perspective of both training accuracy and efficiency. In addition, the resulting ANN is used to replace the hydrologic simulation component of a previously developed multiobjective decision support model for watershed management. Due to the efficiency of the trained ANN with respect to the traditional simulation model, the replacement reduced the overall computational time required to generate preferred watershed management policies by 75%. The reduction is likely to improve the practical utility of the management model from a typical user perspective. Moreover, the results reveal the potential role of properly trained ANNs in addressing computational demands of various problems without sacrificing the accuracy of solutions.     

流域年均含沙量BP模型问题分析

本文在用人工神经网络BP模型对流域年均含沙量进行多因素建模过程中，对BP算法进行了改进，在学习速率η的选取上引进了一维搜索法，解决了人工输入η时，若η值过小，收敛速度太慢，η值过大，又会使误差函数值振荡，导致算法不收敛的问题，建模实践表明，改进后的BP算法可能使网络误差函数达到局部极小点，提高了算法的拟合精度。     

数字流域河网编码方法应用实例

数字流域模型的河网编码方法使河网中河段的直接定位和拓扑关系运算更为方便.将此方法应用于黄土高原多沙粗沙区的河网,按河网自然的拓扑形态和流域的天然分界将该地区河网划分为4级37区.数字流域河网编码方法在多沙粗沙区的水沙模型计算和并行计算调度中的应用表明,该方法能够使产流产沙和演进的模拟过程更符合自然河流的发育规律,并易于高效并行调度算法的实现.     

随机块体统计分析及其工程支护意义

随机块体统计分析对于深入认识随机块体发育特征,定量分析块体系统支护参数具有重要意义。在随机块体几何搜索分析结果的基础上,对随机块体大小及平均大小等的统计分布规律进行研究。结果表明：块体大小满足负指数分布规律,块体平均大小及覆盖率满足分布。在随机块体统计分析结果基础上,提出了确定块体系统支护设计参数的分析思路,例如根据块体埋深的分布规律,通过可靠度思想,可以确定锚杆长度。研究成果揭示了随机块体的统计分布规律,并为随机结构面切割下的块体支护分析探索了一个新的方法。     

Statistical Assessment of the Impact of Conservation Measures on Streamflow Responses in a Watershed of the Loess Plateau, China

The objective of this study was to examine the trends of changes in streamflow in a watershed of the Loess Plateau, where a series of soil conservation measures were implemented since the late 1950s. Both parametric and non-parametric Mann–Kendall test were used to identify the trends in hydrologic variables over the last 50 years, and it showed significant downward trends in annual runoff, surface runoff and baseflow. The Pettitt’s test was used to detect the change points of runoff, which occurred in 1973, and the whole 50-year records could be divided into contrast (from 1957 to 1973) and treated (from 1974 to 2006) periods. It was observed that the average annual runoff during treated period reduced by 60%, surface runoff and baseflow reduced by 65% and 55%, respectively in comparing with the contrast period. But the proportion of baseflow to total runoff showed a significant increasing from 0.57 to 0.63. Seasonal runoff also showed decreased trend with the highest reduction occurring in summer and lowest in winter. Annual precipitation in whole period showed no significant trend, so the changes in hydrologic variables were induced by conservation measures. Comparison of the flow duration curves for the two periods showed that reductions in high and low flows varied greatly. Results showed that conservation measures have resulted obvious changes in the hydrologic variables in a watershed of Loess Plateau.     

Integrated Use of a Continuous Simulation Model and Multi-Attribute Decision-Making for Ranking Urban Watershed Management Alternatives

The objective of this paper is to introduce a continuous simulation-based screening procedure for ranking urban watershed management alternatives using multi-attribute decision making (MADM). The procedure integrates continuous urban runoff simulation results from the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) with the use of an alternative evaluation index (AEI) and MADM techniques, following the driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) approach. The analytic hierarchy process estimates the weights of the criteria, and SWMM results are used to quantify the effects of the management alternatives on water quantity and quality metrics. In addition, the tendency of AEI to reflect resident preferences toward management objectives is incorporated to include stakeholder participation in the decision-making process. This systematic decision support process is demonstrated for a Korean urban watershed. According to the AEI, seven alternatives were divided into three groups: poor (0∼0.3), acceptable (0.3∼0.6), and good (0.6∼1). The use of multiple MADM techniques provided a consistency check. The demonstration illustrates the ability of the continuous simulation-based MADM approach to provide decision makers with a ranking of suitable urban watershed management alternatives which incorporate stakeholder feedback.     

活性污泥模型在我国污水厂的应用

介绍了国际水协(IAW)推出的活性污泥模型(ASM)和基于ASM模型开发的SSSP、EFOR、GPSX、WEST软件。阐述了ASM的使用过程:建立虚拟污水处理厂、确定曝气池进水的各组分浓度、确定模型的化学计量系数和动力学参数、参数校核、验证模型。总结了活性污泥模型使用的具体方法和应用案例,指出ASM模型存在的问题有:组分复杂多样,缺少规范;大多数参数需要测定,且测定过程复杂;缺乏与模型配套使用的基础数据库,不便于与其他专业软件的集成;模型机理相互作用关系尚不明确。     

小流域治理管理项目对政府管理生态建设工作的启示

计划经济体制下形成的“部门行政”模式,造成了水土保持生态治理项目建设管理上的“条块”分割,各部门与地方各自为政,分别立项、投资,导致出现诸多问题。中国小流域治理管理项目是水利部与英国国际发展部、世界银行三方合作的水土保持生态建设项目,在“参与式规划、区域发展资源整合、沟通宣传”等理念和方法的指导下,3年多的项目实践可以为解决我国经济转型期政府职能从“部门行政”向“公共行政”转变过程中水土保持生态建设工作的前述问题提供一定的借鉴。