New firm formation: Dynamics and determinants

Empirical studies of determinants of new firm formation to date have tended to yield diverse and even contradictory results. Three primary reasons for this have been advanced: (1) the paucity of suitable micro-level data (2) the failure to control for amorphous time- and place-specific influences that defy specification, and (3) the use of estimation techniques that do not handle adequately the effects of heteroscedasticity. This paper addresses all of these shortcomings by employing a unique data set composed of annual data on localized firm entry, exit and a variety of predictor variables that has been analyzed to yield heteroscedasticity-corrected estimates while controlling for unspecified place- and period-specific influences. We test a variety of models seeking to explain patterns of new firm formation in terms of macroeconomic, demographic, and labor market processes, patterns of industrial restructuring, availability of local financial capital, and local public sector spending. Our results suggest that regional patterns of new firm formation can be explained by variation in unemployment change rates, mean establishment size, prior firm entry and exit dynamics, and the availability of local financial capital. We find no evidence of influence attributable to population or income dynamics, unemployment level, or local government spending.ERSA Congress Reference Number: 399     

Regional determinants of firm entry in a developing country

We analyse the determinants of firm entry in developing countries using Argentina as an illustrative case. Our main finding is that although most of the regional determinants used in previous studies analysing developed countries are also relevant here, there is a need for additional explanatory variables that proxy for the specificities of developing economies (e.g., poverty, informal economy and idle capacity). We also find evidence of a core‐periphery pattern in the spatial structure of entry that seems to be mostly driven by differences in agglomeration economies. Since regional policies aiming to attract new firms are largely based on evidence from developed countries, our results raise doubts about the usefulness of such policies when applied to developing economies.     

Cultural diversity and entrepreneurship: a regional analysis for Germany

In this paper, we investigate the determinants of entrepreneurial activity in a cross section of German regions for the period 1998–2005. Departing from the knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship, the focus of our analysis is on the role of the regional environment and, in particular, knowledge and cultural diversity. Our main hypothesis is that both, knowledge and diversity, have a positive impact on new firm formation. As the determinants of regional firm birth rates might differ considerably with respect to the necessary technology and knowledge input, we consider start-ups at different technology levels. The regression results indicate that regions with a high level of knowledge provide more opportunities for entrepreneurship than other regions. Moreover, while sectoral diversity tends to dampen new firm foundation, cultural diversity has a positive impact on technology oriented start-ups. This suggests that the diversity of people is more conducive to entrepreneurship than the diversity of firms. Thus, regions characterized by a high level of knowledge and cultural diversity form an ideal breeding ground for technology oriented start-ups.     

Regional variations in firm formation: Panel and cross-section data evidence from Finland

This article investigates regional variations in firm formation in Finland between 1989 and 1993, and estimates the effects of regional factors on firm formation utilising panel and cross-sectional data. Panel data evidence shows that the average size of firms and establishments in the subregions tends to explain firm formation in Finland most robustly. Cross-sectional results for Finland and several other countries tend to show that demand growth is also an important factor explaining regional firm formation. Panel data results appear to differ from the cross-sectional ones. Received: 18 December 1997 / Accepted: 14 June 1999     

Plants' entry and exit in Swedish municipalities

Plants' entry and exit behaviour in Swedish municipalities are studied within a fixed-effect, integer-valued autoregressive model. Based on eight industrial sectors, 1985–1993, and all municipalities, models are estimated by a generalized method of moment estimator. Influences on entry and exit are systematic and spatially as well as temporally variable. Responses to explanatory variables differ between sectors. Average income, local unemployment and higher education are found to be important determinants of both entry and exit across sectors. Received: August 1999/Accepted: January 2001     

Agglomeration, (un)‐related variety and new firm survival in China: Do local subsidies matter?

We study empirically the effects of five different dimensions of agglomeration – specialization, diversity, related variety, unrelated variety, and city size – on the survival chances of new entrepreneurial firms in China. Consideration is further given to studying the mediating effects of local subsidies on new firm survival given different existing local industrial structures in those regions. In support of the ‘regional branching’ hypothesis, we find that increasing local related variety has a stronger positive effect on new firm survival than other types of agglomeration. We also find that receiving comparatively fewer subsidies motivates firms to seek out and benefit from local existing economies, which in turn, positively influence their chances of survival. By contrast, agglomerated firms that receive relatively more subsidies tend to be more likely to face financial distress leading to eventual market exit. The findings thus reveal that both the intensity and the location of state support matters in terms of optimizing positive agglomeration effects on firms' post‐entry performance and survival.     

Business cycle,industrial composition,or regional advantage? A decomposition analysis of new firm formation in the United States

This paper presents a shift-share decomposition analysis of new firm formation at the three-digit NAICS level in the United States from 1998 to 2003, attributing overall new firm creation, in construction, manufacturing, and service sectors respectively, to three distinct sources, i.e., business cycle, industrial composition, and regional advantage. This research is critical not only because, from a methodological perspective, this is one of the first applications of the shift-share analysis in firm formation and entrepreneurship studies. This research is also significant because it empirically identifies the portion of new start-ups that results exclusively from regional factors, enables researchers and policy makers to uncover the nuanced relations between firm births and regional characteristics, job creation, and economic development, and therefore facilitates effective public policies to promote new businesses and achieve economic success.     

Small is Transient: Housebuilding Firms in Ontario,Canada 1978-98

The North American housebuilding industry has been neglected in urban and housing studies. Its firm size structure and instability have long been cause for concern, but have rarely been given more than anecdotal treatment. This paper examines the transience of housebuilders in Ontario from 1978 to 1998. Using a census of builders provided by the Ontario New Home Warranty Program, the industry's firm membership is found to be extremely transient. Most transience comes by way of new firm formation and permanent firm exits from the market, while a small cohort of builders withdraw from and re-enter the market on a regular basis. The business cycle speeds and slows these processes but flux is due primarily to the annual turnover of small builders. To reduce transience, policy makers must decide between slowing entry and perhaps raising industry concentration or allowing continued firm entry and probably transience.     

What drives heterogeneity in the resilience of trade: Firm‐specific versus regional characteristics

Employing micro‐data of Dutch local business units, we show that firm characteristics such as size, economic activity, the traded product portfolio, the focus of trade involvement and the geographic pattern of trade are important determinants of recovery following the trade collapse of 2008–2009, both in terms of speed and depth. Our findings suggest that post‐crisis growth is faster for trade in goods further downstream of the value chain and thus closer to the final consumer. Trade recovery at the firm‐level does not crucially hinge on locational factors such as the province in which a firm is located or regional revealed comparative advantages in particular product groups.     

Regional industrial evolution in China

Evolutionary economic geography (EEG) indicates that regional industrial development is path dependent. The empirical studies in EEG however have not paid sufficient attention to the importance of global linkages nor the role of regional institutions in driving industrial dynamics. Based on firm level data of four‐digit manufacturing industries during 1998 to 2008 in China, we find that Chinese regions branch into new industries technologically related to the existing industrial portfolio and related industries are less likely to exit. Further analysis reveals that global linkages, economic liberalization and state involvement not only create favourable conditions to allow a larger role of technological relatedness but also generate opportunities for Chinese regions to create new paths of industrial development.     

Skill relatedness,structural change and heterogeneous regions: evidence from a developing country

We employ a detailed skill database from Brazil to investigate how skill relatedness influences structural change in a developing country. We find a positive relationship between the skill-relatedness density and the entry of skill-related industries; a negative association with the exit of industries from regional economies; and a positive influence on employment growth. The relationship between skill relatedness and structural change varies across different regions. Entry is more likely in large regions, and depends less on relatedness in advanced and middle-income regions. Skill relatedness plays a role in preventing exit from small regions and enhancing employment growth in larger regions.     

Determinants of new firm success

The differences between new firms, even the differences present right at the start, may affect their life course and success over time. This article addresses the determinants of success of Dutch start-ups from a longitudinal perspective. After an overview of the literature on both the definition of success and the success factors of new firms we test how new firm characteristics relate to firm growth in number of employees using a panel of nearly 2,000 firms. In addition to a large firm size right from the start, good preparation, having a business partner, and some years in salaried employment also enhance firm growth. Based on these success determinants we construct a typology of starters that may be used to predict future growth chances. Received 25 February 1999 / Accepted 10 December 1999     

Incorporating demand-side aspects into regional policy: variations in the importance of private investment decision factors across regions

Most regional programs focus on the supply side of regions, emphasizing the attraction conditions offered, such as infrastructure, labor skills, tax incentives, etc. This study analyzes one aspect of the demand side, that is, how investment decisions of private firms are made by asking the question: “Do corporations decide the same way on investments in different parts of the territory?” The paper analyzes the investments of 373 large Brazilian firms during 1996–2004. Based on the investment decisions of these firms, the role of sales, cash-flow, external financing, and working capital is investigated through regression analysis. The regional influence is captured by explanatory variables representing regional and firm characteristics, and by interaction dummies between the region and the main investment determinants. The results indicate significant differences across regions in the importance of investment determinants. This information is important for regional development policy, because different mechanisms should be used in different regions to foster private investments.     

What determines entry? Evidence from Sweden

In this paper, I examined what conditions affected the entry of Swedish limited liability firms 2000–2008, while making a distinction between regular entrants and those that survive for at least 2 years. I used a dataset that makes it possible to trace entry geographically as well as in what industry it occurs down to the 5-digit NACE level. Results suggest that the conditions influencing regular entry were similar to those influencing surviving entry. Political variables, e.g., municipal tax rate and the ideology of local rule, were of limited importance. Meanwhile, municipalities with industries with high minimum efficient scale of production or high market concentration rates were considerably less likely to see new firm formation. Substantially, more entry occurred in municipalities with high-income and a well-educated population. The importance of the level of education appears stronger for surviving entrants than for regular entrants, pointing to the importance of human capital.     

The elusive effects of workplace diversity on innovation

We investigate econometrically whether cultural diversity at the workplace boosts innovation. Our longitudinal linked employer‐employee data combines two innovation surveys, with Dutch administrative, tax and regional data. We analyse the determinants of a firm's product and process innovations with respect to the firm's internal resources, employee composition and regional agglomeration externalities. We reconfirm the findings of several other recent studies showing a positive partial correlation between innovation and cultural diversity in pooled cross‐sectional data; in some cases even when accounting for reverse causation. However, no statistically significant traces of benefit for innovation from cultural diversity remain after introducing firm fixed effects.     

New firm formation facing cultural and racial diversity*

This paper is intended to examine how regional diversity in terms of cultural and racial diversity affects new firm formation in 10 disaggregated industrial sectors across US counties. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is used to estimate the spatial autoregressive regression models. It is suggested that regional diversity positively affects new firm formation, both in its own and neighbouring counties, in selected industries examined. Resumen Este artículo tiene por objeto examinar cómo la diversidad regional expresada en forma de diversidad cultural y racial afecta a la formación de nuevas empresas en 10 sectores industriales desagregados en condados de los Estados Unidos. Se utiliza el método de Monte Carlo bayesiano basado en cadenas de Markov para estimar los modelos de regresión espaciales autorregresivos. Se sugiere que, en las industrias seleccionadas examinadas, la diversidad regional afecta positivamente a la formación de nuevas empresas, tanto en el propio condado como en los vecinos.      

Regional industrial analysis and vintage dynamics

Among the export-oriented Nordic economies, industrial policy in the postwar period has centred on stimulating the exit of obsolete and the entry of modern production vintages, in a multiregional context. This paper presents the theoretical background for this policy in terms of models and assumptions. Moreover, it attempts to assess the critical elements of this region-specific industrial policy. Finally, the paper concludes with a suggestion about how a dynamic regional vintage theory must be reformulated in order to accommodate new phenomena in the so-called knowledge economy.     

Agglomeration effects and the location of FDI: evidence from French first-time movers

This paper analyses the location choice determinants of French first-time investments in Europe, North America and North Africa. Firm locations are examined on two geographical scales, the national and regional level. The final sample comprises 307 location choices in 27 countries and across 45 regions. Both, location- and firm-specific variables are used for analyzing investment strategies. The results show that higher market demand and cultural proximity to France increase the likelihood of a particular location to be chosen, whereas higher labour cost and a larger distance between a foreign location and the headquarters deter FDI investments. Manufacturing and older companies are more likely to establish their first subsidiary in Eastern Europe. Furthermore, this study examines the extent to which French investors choose foreign locations that already host a significant number of French firms. The results obtained from regressions with various absolute and relative agglomeration measures suggest that French investors are rather attracted by firm cluster in general, or by the unobserved factors that led to the agglomeration in the first place, than by any nation-specific firm cluster.     

Potential merger‐forcing entry reduces maximum spacing between firms in spatial competition

In the literature, the range of market sizes (spacings between firms) consistent with free‐entry equilibrium, in various models of spatial competition, extends from the zero‐profit market size, up to the market size for which ‘sophisticated entry’ halfway between two existing firms, by an entrant that correctly foresees post‐entry prices, is marginally deterred. I argue that the upper limit might be the (significantly smaller) market size for which ‘merger‐forcing entry’ by an entrant right next to an existing firm, causing severe price competition and inducing a horizontal merger between the entrant and the existing firm, is marginally deterred.     

Firm births and employment change in the British counties: 1981–89

This paper explores the relationship between firm formation and net employment change at the country level of Britain during the 1980s. An augmented factor-demand model is specified and estimated across the 64 countries of Britain. The results offer support for the view that firm formation is strongly associated with net employment change in British countries. Moreover, when allowance is made for feedback effects due to the estimated simultaneity between new starts and net employment the impact of firm formation on estimated job change is even greater.