The responsibility for carbon emissions and carbon efficiency at the sectoral level: Evidence from China

This work reviews benefit-based principles to measuring responsibility for carbon emissions at the sectoral level using environmental input–output analysis. Several new emissions multipliers are proposed to measure sectoral carbon efficiency. These principles are used in an empirical analysis of carbon emissions in China, and differences between the principles are compared. The results indicate that all principles considered can prevent double-counting of emissions but that different principles may lead to significantly different attributions of responsibility for carbon emissions and to different multiplier values for particular sectors. Electricity and heat supply is found to be the sector with the highest emissions responsibility under all but the consumer responsibility principle, as well as the highest carbon multiplier under all principles. However, this sector's responsibility under producer responsibility principles is greater than that under other principles. Basic metals and transportation and post and telecommunication are among the top five sectors with the greatest responsibilities under all but the consumer responsibility principle, whereas construction has the highest consumer responsibility among all sectors. The pros and cons and policy implications of each principle are also discussed.     

CO2 emissions,energy consumption and economic growth in China: A panel data analysis

This paper examines the causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and real economic output using panel cointegration and panel vector error correction modeling techniques based on the panel data for 28 provinces in China over the period 1995–2007. Our empirical results show that CO₂ emissions, energy consumption and economic growth have appeared to be cointegrated. Moreover, there exists bidirectional causality between CO₂ emissions and energy consumption, and also between energy consumption and economic growth. It has also been found that energy consumption and economic growth are the long-run causes for CO₂ emissions and CO₂ emissions and economic growth are the long-run causes for energy consumption. The results indicate that China's CO₂ emissions will not decrease in a long period of time and reducing CO₂ emissions may handicap China's economic growth to some degree. Some policy implications of the empirical results have finally been proposed.     

How can China reach its CO2 intensity reduction targets by 2020? A regional allocation based on equity and development

In late 2009, the Chinese government committed to cut its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 40% to 45% of 2005 levels by 2020. This has raised the issue of how to allocate the CO₂ reduction target regionally to meet the national reduction target. To meet this objective, the following aspects may be taken into consideration: equity principles, ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’; intensity reduction target fulfillment; and economic difference and reduction potential among provinces. This paper selects per capita GDP, accumulated fossil fuel related CO₂ emissions and energy consumption per unit of industrial added value as indicators for emission reduction capacity, responsibility and potential, respectively. Based on these three indicators, a comprehensive index is developed and an intensity allocation model constructed. As decision makers may have different preferences when allocating the reduction burden, we allocate different weights to the indicators, analyzing the results using cluster analysis. The following aspects may also be considered together with the national regional development strategy to determine how to share the burden: the reduction potential of various regions; implementation potential of the plans; and promotion of a highly efficient low carbon economic development model.     

An analysis of Chinese provincial carbon dioxide emission efficiencies based on energy consumption structure

China plans to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from 2005 levels by 40–45% by 2020 and by 60–65% by 2030. This research project addresses this challenge by analyzing Chinese provincial carbon dioxide emission efficiencies and the energy consumption structure. The study applies the Slacks Based Measure (SBM) model to analyze the data from 30 regions in China from 2000 to 2011. The situation of provincial carbon dioxide emission efficiency, the characteristics of the energy consumption structure in each province, and the differences among these provinces are quantitatively analyzed. Based on the K-means cluster analysis, this research suggests that China be divided into five groups in the energy consumption structure: the inefficient and less reasonable group, the inefficient and more reasonable group, the efficient and less reasonable group, the efficient and more reasonable group, and the efficient and most reasonable group. The study offers recommendations for the government to develop policies to effectively and efficiently reduce carbon dioxide emission levels for each group. It also has profound implications for government administration in developing countries to guide the energy consumption and to control environmental pollution for the healthy development of the economy.     

Regional difference and drivers in China's carbon emissions embodied in internal trade

To understand the impact of China's internal trade on China's carbon emissions, this article used the multi-regional input-output model to compare embodied carbon emissions based on production principle and consumption principle in the eight major economic regions of China. Besides, the SDA method was used to reveal the drivers of changes in CO₂ emissions. The study uses data from the 2007 and 2012 multi-regional input-output tables. The result shows that domestic demand emissions are the primary source of production-based emissions in China, but the proportion of external demand emissions is increasing rapidly. According to the structural decomposition of the embodied carbon emissions, it can be seen that the carbon emissions caused by the trade in intermediate products have always been a major component of external demand emissions. Further research indicates that the rapid growth in carbon emissions from the production and consumption side of the region is mainly attributed to the expansion of the final demand scale and changes in input structure of the production department. The most critical factor that restrains the increase in carbon emissions on both principles in all regions is the reduction of emission intensity in the production sector. The conclusion of this paper has important implications for how to coordinate inter-provincial trade and regionally balanced development under open economic conditions.     

Who shapes China's carbon intensity and how? A demand-side decomposition analysis

As national efforts to decouple carbon emissions from economic growth intensify, policymakers need more specific, sub-national information about the sources and reduction potentials of carbon intensity. This study presents a demand-side decomposition of China's carbon intensity to its regions, final demand types, and economic sectors, based on a predefined “aggregate embodied intensity (AEI)” indicator, i.e. the ratio of embodied emissions to embodied value added. We find that China's carbon intensity has been largely shaped by developed provinces, capital investment demand, and the construction sector. However, less-developed provinces, consumption demand, and the services sector have played increasingly important roles. Wealthy provinces generally experienced much lower AEIs and higher AEI reductions compared to poor provinces from 2007 to 2012, mainly owing to provincial differences in final demand structure and sectoral structure. Coastal region's emission reduction efforts at both production and demand sides were the main contributor to China's decrease in carbon intensity during the period, while interior region's structural degradation in demand partially offset the decrease. Our results suggest that allocating national carbon intensity targets based on AEI, and adjusting the final demand structure of central-western provinces, would greatly benefit for China to achieve its ambitious carbon intensity target by 2030.     

Regional differences in China's CO2 abatement cost

Under a framework of output distance function with multiple outputs, the study discusses the carbon abatement cost at provincial and regional levels in China, using the shadow price analysis. The findings show that the abatement cost, reflecting the marginal opportunity cost of carbon reduction, varies greatly among the provinces. On average, the abatement cost of the eastern region was much higher than that of the mid-western region during the observed period. The findings provide evidence that the carbon prices in the current ETS pilots have been much lower than desired levels, implying inefficiency of the markets. The wide range of the abatement cost estimates supports that the equi-marginal principle does not hold for the regulations on carbon pollution at regional levels. The regional cost differences indicate the huge potential for China to minimize the total abatement cost with policy instruments that may motive the emissions moving from areas of low abatement cost to where the abatement cost is higher. For a few undeveloped provinces that are environmentally fragile and have high abatement cost, supplementary measures will be needed to reduce the negative impact of carbon cutbacks on the poor to the minimum.     

Regional differences in the factors that influence China’s energy-related carbon emissions,and potential mitigation strategies

Energy-related carbon emissions in China have increased significantly. To mitigate these emissions, it is necessary to estimate the trends (increase or decrease) and the magnitudes of the influences (tons of carbon emitted) as a result of four causal factors that affect emissions: GDP, economic structure, energy intensity, and fuel mix. To do so, we have divided the study period into three intervals (from 1995 to 2009) based on China’s three most-recent 5-year plans. We then divided China’s 30 provinces into four categories based on the individual and net effects of these factors on carbon emissions. On this basis, we discuss potential strategies for reducing China’s carbon emissions. Increasing GDP caused the largest increase in carbon emissions, whereas decreasing energy intensity significantly decreased emissions. Changes in the economic structure increased emissions, with the economic structure becoming more carbon-intensive; efforts to optimize the fuel mix slightly decreased emissions during the first and third periods, but increased emissions during the second period. Our analysis also revealed differences between provinces and regions, allowing local managers to focus on the most important problems for their area. To reduce future energy-related carbon emissions, China’s economic structure, energy intensity, and fuel mix must all be improved.     

The emissions,energy consumption,and growth nexus: Evidence from the commonwealth of independent states

This study examines the causal relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, and real output within a panel vector error correction model for eleven countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States over the period 1992–2004. In the long-run, energy consumption has a positive and statistically significant impact on carbon dioxide emissions while real output follows an inverted U-shape pattern associated with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. The short-run dynamics indicate unidirectional causality from energy consumption and real output, respectively, to carbon dioxide emissions along with bidirectional causality between energy consumption and real output. In the long-run there appears to be bidirectional causality between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions.     

CO2 emissions,electricity consumption and output in ASEAN

This study examines the causal relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, electricity consumption and economic growth within a panel vector error correction model for five ASEAN countries over the period 1980–2006. The long-run estimates indicate that there is a statistically significant positive association between electricity consumption and emissions and a non-linear relationship between emissions and real output, consistent with the environmental Kuznets curve. The long-run estimates, however, do not indicate the direction of causality between the variables. The results from the Granger causality tests suggest that in the long-run there is unidirectional Granger causality running from electricity consumption and emissions to economic growth. The results also point to unidirectional Granger causality running from emissions to electricity consumption in the short-run.     

Carbon emissions,energy consumption and economic growth: An aggregate and disaggregate analysis of the Indian economy

This study investigates the long and short run relationships among carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in India at the aggregated and disaggregated levels during 1971–2014. The autoregressive distributed lag model is employed for the cointegration analyses and the vector error correction model is applied to determine the direction of causality between variables. Results show that a long run cointegration relationship exists and that the environmental Kuznets curve is validated at the aggregated and disaggregated levels. Furthermore, energy (total energy, gas, oil, electricity and coal) consumption has a positive relationship with carbon emissions and a feedback effect exists between economic growth and carbon emissions. Thus, energy-efficient technologies should be used in domestic production to mitigate carbon emissions at the aggregated and disaggregated levels. The present study provides policy makers with new directions in drafting comprehensive policies with lasting impacts on the economy, energy consumption and environment towards sustainable development.     

Quantification of provincial-level carbon emissions from energy consumption in China

Greenhouse gas emission inventories are useful tools for monitoring air quality and assisting local policy development. This article estimates CO₂ emission inventories from energy consumption and carbon intensities of provinces and municipalities in Mainland China in 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2005–2008 using the IPCC mass balance approach. Results show that China's coal-based energy structure and unique economic development have heavily impacted CO₂ emissions. Fortunately, although coal consumption has increased to over 70% of all fuel use, the share of CO₂ emissions from coal has gradually decreased due to energy consumption restructuring. The switch from coal-dominance to cleaner, renewable energies (wind, solar, natural gas, nuclear power, geothermal, biomass energy) will undoubtedly reduce CO₂ emissions in China. Results also indicate that carbon intensity has improved steadily, as China's economic development introduces new technologies intended to minimize environmental pollution and destruction. Our results suggest that China's CO₂ emissions may not be as high as expected in future, and will gradually lessen.     

Energy consumption-economic growth relationship and carbon dioxide emissions in China

This paper applies the panel unit root, heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel-based dynamic OLS to re-investigate the co-movement and relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for 30 provinces in mainland China from 1985 to 2007. The empirical results show that there is a positive long-run cointegrated relationship between real GDP per capita and energy consumption variables. Furthermore, we investigate two cross-regional groups, namely the east China and west China groups, and get more important results and implications. In the long-term, a 1% increase in real GDP per capita increases the consumption of energy by approximately 0.48–0.50% and accordingly increases the carbon dioxide emissions by about 0.41–0.43% in China. The economic growth in east China is energy-dependent to a great extent, and the income elasticity of energy consumption in east China is over 2 times that of the west China. At present, China is subject to tremendous pressures for mitigating climate change issues. It is possible that the GDP per capita elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions would be controlled in a range from 0.2 to 0.3 by the great effort.     

Spatial and temporal optimization of hydrogen fuel supply chain for light duty passenger vehicles in British Columbia

British Columbia is well positioned to capitalize on its natural resources and its carbon policies towards the development of a hydrogen fueling network. A multi-period optimization model was developed to design a hydrogen fuel supply chain based on a mixed integer linear programming formulation. The model was applied to the light duty passenger vehicle sector in British Columbia under three hydrogen demand scenarios. As part of the objective function, the model incorporated the current provincial emissions mitigation policies, i.e., a carbon tax and a low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS). Based on cost, our model indicates that steam methane reforming (SMR) is the least costly hydrogen production technology even with carbon policies in place. However, SMR would result in higher emissions (compared to other pathways). Coupling the carbon tax with the LCFS can be a suitable policy option when hydrogen price and GHG emissions are weighted equally.     

基于碳交易市场下的电力企业碳减排决策研究

中国CO2排放量巨大,其中电力企业的CO2排放量占全国总排放量的50%以上。在碳交易市场背景下,电力企业需要在拍卖购买碳配额进行减排与自主更新进行减排中作出抉择。基于成本效益法对发电企业的低碳成本进行了综合分析,将通过优化后所减少的CO2排放量作为收益,在碳排放交易市场的背景下将碳减排的经济效益进行量化,并通过与碳排放权交易市场的碳价格进行比较,从而得出火电企业所应作出的最佳决策。如结果所示,在一定条件下,如果企业进行技术更新后可以减排10%、20%、30%的电力生产CO2排放量,则火电企业所作出的碳减排决策分界点的拍卖比例分别为54%、27%与18%。     

CO2 emissions,energy usage,and output in Central America

This study extends the recent work of Ang (2007) [Ang, J.B., 2007. CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, and output in France. Energy Policy 35, 4772–4778] in examining the causal relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, and output within a panel vector error correction model for six Central American countries over the period 1971–2004. In long-run equilibrium energy consumption has a positive and statistically significant impact on emissions while real output exhibits the inverted U-shape pattern associated with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. The short-run dynamics indicate unidirectional causality from energy consumption and real output, respectively, to emissions along with bidirectional causality between energy consumption and real output. In the long-run there appears to be bidirectional causality between energy consumption and emissions.     

Economic growth,energy conservation and emissions reduction: A comparative analysis based on panel data for 8 Asian-Pacific countries

This study was conducted to evaluate the causality between energy consumption, GDP growth and carbon emissions for eight Asia-Pacific countries from 1971 to 2005 using the panel data. The results indicate that there are long-run equilibrium relationships between these variables. Additionally, causality from energy consumption to CO₂ emissions was observed generally, but there were some opposite relationships also. Parameter estimations of the panel data model indicate that there are great differences in the carbon emissions, the efficiencies of energy use, carbon emissions of unit GDP and unit energy consumption between developed and developing countries. The base carbon emissions, per capita energy consumption and efficiency of energy use in developing countries are far lower than in developed countries; however, the CO₂ emissions per unit of energy use is higher. Although developing countries may reduce their CO₂ emission per unit energy use, total energy consumption will rise rapidly with economic development. Thus, developing countries must determine how to undergo economic growth while conserving energy and reducing emissions. To respond to global climate change, it is necessary to develop innovative technology for energy use, transform the energy structure and conduct the clean development mechanism.     

环境质量约束下的中国能源需求量研究

本文通过建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,研究了经济增长、环境质量和能源消费三者之间的长期均衡关系,并对未来五年的二氧化碳排放量、能源消费量和GDP进行了动态预测。建立了经济发展的能源需求模型和环境约束下的能源消费模型,得出经济产出、能源消费及能源强度三个变量之间及二氧化碳排放量、能源消费及碳强度三个变量之间的长期均衡关系,在此基础上预测未来五年我国能源最优消费量数据。     

Quantifying regional economic impacts of CO2 intensity targets in China

To address rising energy use and CO₂ emissions, China's leadership has enacted energy and CO₂ intensity targets under the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015), which are defined at both the national and provincial levels. We develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with global coverage that disaggregates China's 30 provinces and includes energy system detail, and apply it to assess the impact of the current binding provincial CO₂ emissions intensity targets. We compare the impact of the provincial targets approach to a single target for China that achieves the same reduction in CO₂ emissions intensity at the national level. The national target assumes trading of emissions allowances across provinces, resulting in the least-cost reductions nationwide. We find that the national target results in about 20% lower welfare loss in China relative to the provincial targets approach. Given that the regional distribution of impacts has been an important consideration in the target-setting process, we focus on the changes in provincial-level CO₂ emissions intensity, CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, and economic welfare. We observe significant heterogeneity across provinces in terms of the energy system response as well as the magnitude of welfare impacts. We further model the current policy of fixed end-use electricity prices in China and find that national welfare losses increase. Assumptions about capital mobility have a substantial impact on national welfare loss, while changing assumptions about the future availability of domestic natural gas resources does not have a large effect.     

Economic growth, CO2 emissions, and fossil fuels consumption in Iran

Environmental issues have attracted renewed interest and more attention during recent years due to climatic problems associated with the increased levels of pollution and the deterioration of the environmental quality as a result of increased human activity. This paper investigates the causal relationships between economic growth, carbon emission, and fossil fuels consumption, using the relatively new time series technique known as the Toda-Yamamoto method for Iran during the period 1967–2007. Total fossil fuels, petroleum products, and natural gas consumption are used as three proxies for energy consumption. Empirical results suggest a unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP and two proxies of energy consumption (petroleum products and natural gas consumption) to carbon emissions, and no Granger causality running from total fossil fuels consumption to carbon emissions in the long run. The results also show that carbon emissions, petroleum products, and total fossil fuels consumption do not lead to economic growth, though gas consumption does.