Adoption of carbon dioxide efficient technologies and practices: An analysis of sector-specific convergence trends among 12 nations

Carbon dioxide intensities in economic terms (GDP in PPP terms) in industrialized and developing countries have been shown to converge, and it has been argued that technology diffusion, leading to the use of similar technologies in all countries, is an important reason for this convergence. Indicators based on CO₂ per output in PPP terms, however, give in comparison to physical indicators limited understanding of the process of technology diffusion. In order to analyze the technology diffusion hypothesis in more detail, we therefore study the trend in carbon dioxide emissions in relation to the production output in four separate sectors: iron and steel; paper, board and pulp; coal fuelled power plants; and natural gas fuelled power plants, in each of 12 countries, between 1980 and 1998. The indicators converge in each sector, indicating that across countries, technologies with more similar carbon dioxide efficiencies are used today than 25 years ago. We also find that at least some developing countries with high energy prices use more efficient technologies than industrialized countries with low energy prices.     

Energy demand and CO2 emissions reduction options in Nigeria

This paper presents policy options for reducing CO₂ emissions in Nigeria. The policies were formulated based on a thorough analysis of Nigeria's current energy consumption patterns and the projected evolution of key parameters that drive Nigeria's energy demand — primarily the rate of industrialization, the demand for transportation services, and the expansion of Nigeria's population. The study shows that the most promising options for reducing CO₂ emissions in Nigeria are improving energy efficiency and increasing the use of natural gas and renewable energy sources.     

Dynamics of final sectoral energy demand and aggregate energy intensity

This paper proposes a regional and sectoral model of global final energy demand. For the main end-use sectors of consumption (industrial, commercial and public services, residential and road transportation), per-capita demand is expressed as an S-shaped function of per-capita income. Other variables intervene as well, like energy prices, temperatures and technological trends. This model is applied on a panel of 101 countries and 3 aggregates (covering the whole world) and it explains fairly well past variations in sectoral, final consumption since the beginning of the 2000s. Further, the model is used to analyze the dynamics of final energy demand, by sector and in total. The main conclusion concerns the pattern of change for aggregate energy intensity. The simulations performed show that there is no a priori reason for it to exhibit a bell-shape, as reported in the literature. Depending on initial conditions, the weight of basic needs in total consumption and the availability of modern commercial energy resources, various forms might emerge.     

Government expenditure and energy intensity in China

The recent economic stimulus package of China has raised growing concern about its potential impact on energy demand and efficiency. To what extent does such expansion of government expenditure influence energy intensity? This question has not been well answered by the previous research. Using provincial panel data, this paper provides some evidence of a link between government expenditure and energy intensity in China. The empirical results demonstrate that the expansion of government expenditure since Asian financial crisis has exerted a significant influence on energy intensity. An increase in government expenditure in China leads to an increase in energy intensity. Further analysis compares such relationships in different economic situations. The comparison shows that such positive effect of government expenditure remains significant after the alteration in economic situation. Therefore, the results suggest introducing some measures to consolidate China's existing gains in energy efficiency. The analysis also explains why the downward trend in energy intensity is reversed in China since 2002.     

Medium-term energy outlook for Cyprus and its policy implications

This short paper presents results from an energy forecast model for the Republic of Cyprus. The model was used during years 2010–2011 to assist national authorities in their preparation of the National Renewable Energy Action Plan and the Energy Efficiency Action Plan of Cyprus in line with the requirements of European Union Directives. Major macroeconomic and price assumptions of the model are presented, and results from model application under different assumptions with regard to the evolution of energy efficiency are outlined and discussed. On the basis of these scenarios the paper discusses policy implications for Cyprus regarding the country's compliance with EU energy and climate legislation.     

Energy efficiency trends and policy in Slovenia

The energy dependency of Slovenia is high (52.1%), but it is a little lower than the average energy dependency in the EU 27 (53.8%). Slovenia imports all its petroleum products and natural gas and partly coal and electricity. The energy intensity of Slovenia is higher by about 50% than the average in the EU 27. The target of the EU Directive on energy end-use efficiency and energy services adopted in 2006 is to achieve a 9% improvement of EE (energy efficiency) within the period 2008-2016. The new target of the EU climate and energy package “20-20-20 plan” is a 20% increase in EE by 2020. Since 1991 the Slovenian government has been supporting energy efficiency activities. The improvement of EE was one of the targets of strategic energy documents ReSROE (Resolution on the Strategy of Use and Supply of Energy in Slovenia from 1996 and ReNEP (Resolution on the National Energy Programme) from 2004 adopted by the Slovenian National Assembly (Parliament) in previous years. The Energy Act adopted in 1999 defines the objective of energy policy as giving priority to EE and utilization of renewable energy sources. The goals of the “National Energy Action Plan 2008-2016 (NEEAP)” adopted by the Slovenian government in 2008 include a set of energy efficiency improvement instruments in the residential, industrial, transport and tertiary sectors. The target of the NEEAP is to save final energy in the 2008-2016 period, amounting to at least 4261 GWh or 9% of baseline consumption. The indicators of energy efficiency trends show considerable improvement in the period from 1998 to 2007. The improvement of EE was reached in all sectors: manufacturing, transport and households. The paper analyses the structure, trends of energy consumption and energy efficiency indicators by sectors of economic activity. A review of energy efficiency policy and measures is described in the paper.     

The unexpected challenges of using energy intensity as a policy objective: Examining the debate over the APEC energy intensity goal

AimsEnergy intensity (energy demand per unit of economic output) is one of the most widely used indicators of energy efficiency in energy policy discussions. Yet its application in real-world policymaking can be surprisingly problematical. This paper aims to provide guidance to governments and organizations considering using energy intensity as a policy objective.ScopeIn 2007 the APEC community adopted, then in 2011 revised, an APEC region-wide energy intensity improvement goal. This paper presents a case study of that experience, focusing on three key ‘lessons learned’. These lessons are not original findings. However, none of them have received the recognition they deserve, and consequently, they came as a surprise to many of those involved in APEC's policy discussions.ConclusionsThe three lessons are as follows: (1) Energy intensity improvement is happening surprisingly quickly, but not quickly enough to meet the world's energy challenges. (2) It is difficult to find a definition of energy intensity that can make it suitable for use as an indicator of regional energy efficiency. (3) Whether the GDP's of individual economies are converted to common currency using market exchange rates or purchasing power parity (PPP) can dramatically change regional energy intensity improvement calculations.     

Energy security,efficiency and carbon emission of Chinese industry

For the Chinese industry as the mainstay of the national economy and dominant energy user and carbon emitter, an integrative assessment is performed from major energy policy perspectives of energy security, energy efficiency and carbon emission. Extensive systems indicators, including oil dependence ratio, average oil growth rate; indices of energy diversity, of carbonization and of oil growth risk; ratios of energy use to output, to value added and to compensation for laborers; ratios of carbon emission to output, to value added and to compensation for laborers, are devised to assess the Chinese industry 2002–2007 with most recent statistics availability. Combined indicators are identified by sparse principle component analysis to characterize sector performances. The industrial sectors are classified into five clusters and the main features of each cluster are pinpointed using fuzzy clustering algorithm. Concrete results facilitate comparisons of sectors to enable more accurate policy recommendations.     

Energy efficiency in India: Assessing the policy regimes and their impacts

In the recent years, India has emerged as one of the fast growing economies of the world necessitating equally rapid increase in modern energy consumption. With an imminent global climate change threat, India will have difficulties in continuing with this rising energy use levels towards achieving high economic growth. It will have to follow an energy-efficient pathway in attaining this goal. In this context, an attempt is made to present India's achievements on the energy efficiency front by tracing the evolution of policies and their impacts. The results indicate that India has made substantial progress in improving energy efficiency which is evident from the reductions achieved in energy intensities of GDP to the tune of 88% during 1980–2007. Similar reductions have been observed both with respect to overall Indian economy and the major sectors of the economy. In terms of energy intensity of GDP, India occupies a relatively high position of nine among the top 30 energy consuming countries of the world.     

Assessment of China's energy-saving and emission-reduction accomplishments and opportunities during the 11th Five Year Plan

From 1980 to 2002, China experienced a 5% average annual reduction in energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). With a dramatic reversal of this historic relationship, energy intensity increased 5% per year during 2002–2005. China's 11th Five Year Plan (FYP) set a target of reducing energy intensity by 20% by 2010. This paper assesses selected policies and programs that China has instituted to fulfill the national goal, finding that China made substantial progress and many of the energy-efficiency programs appear to be on track to meet – or in some cases exceed – their energy-saving targets. Most of the Ten Key Projects, the Top-1000 Program, and the Small Plant Closure Program will meet or surpass the 11th FYP savings goals. China's appliance standards and labeling program has become very robust. China has greatly enhanced its enforcement of new building energy standards but energy-efficiency programs for buildings retrofits, as well as the goal of adjusting China's economic structure, are failing. It is important to maintain and strengthen the existing energy-saving policies and programs that are successful while revising programs or adding new policy mechanisms to improve the programs that are not on track to achieve the stated goals.     

Analysis of the energy intensity evolution in the Brazilian industrial sector—1995 to 2005

This study developed a method to evaluate the evolution of energy intensity in the Brazilian industrial sector from 1995 to 2004. In order to do so, it was necessary to obtain six different measures (indicators) of the sector energy intensity. Considering the concept of energy intensity as the ratio between energy consumption and the level of economic activity, two measures were used for the energy consumption: a thermal (physical) and an economic one. For the level of economic activity, three measures were used: value of production, value of delivered goods and added value. In the Brazilian industrial sector, most of these indicators have behaved in a similar way. In a disaggregated way, energy intensity indicators show a unified direction of its evolution. However, a more elaborate study on the consumption profile of the Brazilian industrial sector and its economical activities indicates the presence of important deviations concerning the annual rate of change in energy intensity. Besides, there is no evident relation between these deviations and the composition of the different indicators of energy intensity.     

The trouble with energy efficiency indexes: la aritmetic non e opinione

Rising energy use and energy-related global greenhouse gas emissions are encouraging new national energy efficiency policies and long-term international cooperative agreements. These require on-going studies to monitor their progress; thus, substantial effort must be directed toward developing reliable evaluation methodologies. One proposed methodology that is gaining in popularity involves energy efficiency indexes. The purpose of this paper is to show that there is a fundamental shortcoming in this approach that makes it unsuitable for estimating policy impacts. This is done in two ways: first, by comparing the calculation of a percent change in energy efficiency indexes to a conventional calculation of a percent change in the level of energy use and, second, by using a Monte Carlo experiment to estimate the probability that policy impacts estimated via an energy efficiency index, even one that has been adjusted, will contain a high degree of error.     

2005～2020年中国能源需求情景及碳排放国际比较研究

本文以2005年为基期,对我国2015年与2010年一次能源需求以及碳排放进行了预测。在此基础上,与美国、日本、英国、欧盟等国家和地区以及世界平均水平1971年～2005年期间的碳排放进行了比较。研究表明中国人均二氧化碳排放量远远低于发达国家,如果与日本相比,尚有50年的差距。     

The odd couple: The relationship between state economic performance and carbon emissions economic intensity

Historical time trends indicate that both carbon and energy intensity have declined in the United States over the last several decades, while economic performance, as measured by per capita GSP, has improved. This observation indicates that it may be possible to reduce carbon intensity without a reduction in economic performance. This paper assesses using panel analysis, the empirical relationship between carbon emissions intensity and economic performance, and examines the direction of causality between the two variables. Data for the analysis covered 48 states, excluding Hawaii, Alaska, and Washington DC, from 1980 to 2000. The results indicate significant bi-directional relationship between carbon emissions intensity and state economic performance, both using an aggregate indicator for carbon emissions intensity, decomposed using Laspeyres indexes and disaggregated by sector. This implies that it should be possible to implement statewide and sector-specific policies to reduce energy and carbon intensity and at the same time improve economic performance.     

Disagreement over carbon footprints: A comparison of electric and LPG forklifts

Carbon footprint is an increasingly popular concept: for labelling, marketing, finance and regulation. In individual cases, carbon footprints can also be contentious, for example in the case of LPG and electric forklifts. Therefore, the fuel carbon footprints of the two were investigated to see if a fair, robust comparison could be made. This investigation yielded two conclusions: (1) definitions will continue to complicate footprint comparisons and (2) fuel carbon footprints of electric and (liquefied petroleum gas) LPG forklifts are, in principle, about equal, while in actual practice, LPG's footprint is smaller than that of electricity. The paper concludes that carbon footprint definitions should be sensible and transparent, but not prescribed.     

An energy development strategy for the USSR Minimizing greenhouse gas emissions

The second largest national consumer of commercial energy in the world, the USSR also emits large quantities of energy-related CO₂. This study uses four long-term scenarios of energy use and related emissions to investigate opportunities for reducing the USSR's greenhouse gas emissions over the next 30 years. This paper shows that if no measures are taken to control these emissions, CO₂ and methane will increase by 1.5 to 2 times the 1990 level by the year 2020. However, this growth can be restrained dramatically through structural changes in the Soviet economy, improved energy efficiency and interfuel substitutions. Abating emissions of carbon in the USSR would entail the widespread implementation of energy policies and, for more substantial reductions, higher investments from the Soviet economy. Achieving these goals would also require broad support from the international community.     

基于IESOM模型的中长期能源需求和碳排放情景分析

本文采用计量经济学方法、弹性系数法、能源服务强度法测算了2011～2030年能源服务需求。以能源服务需求、经济增速等作为输入变量,利用能源系统优化模型(IESOM),针对低、高两种经济情景,核算了基准、10%减排率、15%减排率三种排放情景下的能源需求、能源结构和碳排放量。研究发现:未来能源需求将持续较快增长,能源供应的压力较大,但减排可以有效减轻压力;在没有减排政策的情况下,中国制定的2020年碳排放强度目标将难以实现,只有当减排率达到15%左右的时候,才能实现既定的碳减排目标。     

Policies to reduce energy use and carbon emissions in the UK

The UK differs from may other industrialized nations in that its carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from energy use have declined in recent years despite relatively rapid economic growth. In all sectors but transport, substantial reductions have already occurred in the level of carbon emissions per unit of GDP output. At the same time, a number of official and unofficial studies have pointed out that the UK has one of the largest remaining potentials amongst comparable industrialized countries for achieving further CO₂ reductions through the implementation of cost-effective energy efficiency and fuel switching measures. This paper discusses past and present patterns of energy use and carbons emissions in the UK. The analysis then examines historical trends in UK energy policy and presents policy options for further reducing the UK's energy-use and carbon emissions in the future.     

Calculating economy-wide energy intensity decline rate: The role of sectoral output and energy shares

We specify formulas for computing the rate of decline in economy-wide energy intensity by aggregating its two determinants—technical efficiency improvements in the various sectors of the economy, and shifts in economic activity among these sectors. The formulas incorporate the interdependence between sectoral shares, and establish a one-to-one relation between sectoral output and energy shares. This helps to eliminate future energy intensity decline scenarios which involve implausible values of either sectoral share. An illustrative application of the formulas is provided, using within-sector efficiency improvement estimates suggested by Lightfoot–Green and Harvey.