Energy demand and CO2 emissions reduction options in Nigeria

This paper presents policy options for reducing CO₂ emissions in Nigeria. The policies were formulated based on a thorough analysis of Nigeria's current energy consumption patterns and the projected evolution of key parameters that drive Nigeria's energy demand — primarily the rate of industrialization, the demand for transportation services, and the expansion of Nigeria's population. The study shows that the most promising options for reducing CO₂ emissions in Nigeria are improving energy efficiency and increasing the use of natural gas and renewable energy sources.     

Dynamics of final sectoral energy demand and aggregate energy intensity

This paper proposes a regional and sectoral model of global final energy demand. For the main end-use sectors of consumption (industrial, commercial and public services, residential and road transportation), per-capita demand is expressed as an S-shaped function of per-capita income. Other variables intervene as well, like energy prices, temperatures and technological trends. This model is applied on a panel of 101 countries and 3 aggregates (covering the whole world) and it explains fairly well past variations in sectoral, final consumption since the beginning of the 2000s. Further, the model is used to analyze the dynamics of final energy demand, by sector and in total. The main conclusion concerns the pattern of change for aggregate energy intensity. The simulations performed show that there is no a priori reason for it to exhibit a bell-shape, as reported in the literature. Depending on initial conditions, the weight of basic needs in total consumption and the availability of modern commercial energy resources, various forms might emerge.     

The role of energy efficiency in reducing Scottish and UK CO2 emissions

In 2003, the UK government launched its long-anticipated White Paper on energy, the centrepieces of which were ambitious targets for the production of electricity from renewable technologies and the long-term aspiration of a 60% reduction in UK greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. In the White Paper it was recognised that such a dramatic reduction in emissions will require significant changes in the way in which energy is produced and used. However there has been a general failure to recognise the fact that in order to meet emissions targets, the UK will have to significantly reduce its energy consumption; this is not helped by the general misconception in the UK that reductions in CO₂ emissions will occur simply by increasing the production of electricity from renewable sources.

Specifically, this paper highlights the current trends in renewables deployment and energy demand, with a specific focus on Scotland, where the authorities have set more ambitious renewables targets than the rest of the UK. As will be demonstrated in this paper, without energy demand reduction, the deployment of renewables alone will not be sufficient to curtail growth in UK CO₂ emissions. This is illustrated using a case study of the Scottish housing sector; whilst this case study is necessarily local in scope, the results have global relevance. The paper will also address the magnitude of energy savings required to bring about a reduction in emissions and assesses the status of the policies and technologies that could help bring such reductions about.     

Improved technical efficiency and exogenous factors in transportation demand for energy: An application of structural time series analysis to South Korean data

This paper stresses the importance of incorporating the effects of improved technical efficiency and exogenous factors when estimating energy demand functions. Using annual time series data for the period 1973–2007 in the STSM (structural time series model) developed by Harvey et al. [26] the paper estimates price and income elasticities of demand for energy as well as the annual growth of the stochastic trend at the end of the estimation period. The results of the study reveal a long-run income elasticity of 1.37 and a price elasticity of −0.19. In addition, the underlying trend is generally stochastic and negatively sloping during the greater part of the estimation period. Finally, the estimated result from the structural time series is compared with the results from the Johansen Cointegration. These results suggest that income is the dominant factor in energy consumption. In addition, the coefficient of linear trend is negative, supporting the results from the STSM.     

Policy issues in improving energy efficiency

Today many urgent policy issues need addressing within the overall topic of improving energy efficiency. Also, they need to be addressed at many levels in society, each level possibly requiring a different approach: the overall national economy; the national energy sector; the energy utility; and the energy consumer. This article looks at some of the more important common issues, which apply at all levels, and gives some options on how these issues might be addressed.     

The effect of energy end-use efficiency improvement on China’s energy use and CO2 emissions: a CGE model-based analysis

With its rapid economic growth, China is now confronted with soaring pressure from both its energy supply and the environment. To deal with this conflict, energy end-use efficiency improvement is now promoted by the government as an emphasis for future energy saving. This study explores the general equilibrium effect of energy end-use efficiency improvement on China’s economy, energy use, and CO₂ emissions. This paper develops a static, multisector computable general equilibrium model (CGE) for China, with specific detail in energy use and with the embodiment of energy efficiency. In order to explore the ability of subsidizing non-fossil-generated electricity on moderating potential rebound effects, in this model, the electricity sector was deconstructed into five specific generation activities using bottom–up data from the Chinese electricity industry. The model is calibrated into a 16-sector Chinese Social Accounting Matrix for the year 2002. In the analysis, seven scenarios were established: business as usual, solely efficiency improvement, and five policy scenarios (taxing carbon, subsidized hydropower, subsidized nuclear power, combination of taxing carbon and subsidized hydropower, combination of taxing carbon and subsidized nuclear power). Results show that a sectoral-uniform improvement of energy end-use efficiency will increase rather than decrease the total energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. The sensitivity analysis of sectoral efficiency improvement shows that efficiency improvements happened in different sectors may have obvious different extents of rebound. The three sectors, whose efficient improvements do not drive-up total national energy use and CO₂ emissions, include Iron and Steel, Building Materials, and Construction. Thus, the improvement of energy end-use efficiency should be sectoral specific. When differentiating the sectoral energy-saving goal, not only the saving potential of each sector but also its potential to ease the total rebound should be taken into account. Moreover, since the potential efficiency improvement for a sector over a certain period will be limited, technology measures should work along with a specific policy to neutralize the rebound effect. Results of policy analysis show that one relatively enhanced way is to combine carbon taxing with subsidized hydropower.     

The unexpected challenges of using energy intensity as a policy objective: Examining the debate over the APEC energy intensity goal

AimsEnergy intensity (energy demand per unit of economic output) is one of the most widely used indicators of energy efficiency in energy policy discussions. Yet its application in real-world policymaking can be surprisingly problematical. This paper aims to provide guidance to governments and organizations considering using energy intensity as a policy objective.ScopeIn 2007 the APEC community adopted, then in 2011 revised, an APEC region-wide energy intensity improvement goal. This paper presents a case study of that experience, focusing on three key ‘lessons learned’. These lessons are not original findings. However, none of them have received the recognition they deserve, and consequently, they came as a surprise to many of those involved in APEC's policy discussions.ConclusionsThe three lessons are as follows: (1) Energy intensity improvement is happening surprisingly quickly, but not quickly enough to meet the world's energy challenges. (2) It is difficult to find a definition of energy intensity that can make it suitable for use as an indicator of regional energy efficiency. (3) Whether the GDP's of individual economies are converted to common currency using market exchange rates or purchasing power parity (PPP) can dramatically change regional energy intensity improvement calculations.     

Indian fertilizer industry: assessment of potential energy demand and CO2 emissions

Fertilizer industry is one of the largest energy consumers in India with a share of nearly 15% in total industrial energy consumption. Amongst two types of fertilizers produced in India (nitrogenous (N) and phosphatic (P₂O₅)), nearly 90% energy is consumed by the nitrogenous fertilizer in the form of fuel and feed stock. Based on the future demand projections for fertilizers in India, an attempt has been made in this paper to estimate future energy demand and CO₂ emissions from the industry. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Final energy use in IEA countries: The role of energy efficiency

Improved energy efficiency is a key policy goal of all International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries, but tracking energy efficiency gains is not straightforward. As part of its contribution to the G8 Gleneagles Plan of Action, the IEA has been developing in-depth indicators—tools that provide data and analysis of energy use and efficiency trends. This paper gives an overview of the IEA indicator methodology and presents examples of how disaggregated indicators can be used to identify the factors that drive and restrain energy demand at the end-use level. A decomposition approach is also used to separate efficiency effects from the impacts of structure and activity. The results clearly show the important role that energy efficiency has played in shaping trends in final energy use in IEA countries for more than 30 years. However, the analysis also reveals that recent gains in energy efficiency have been much lower than in earlier decades. Accelerating energy efficiency improvements is therefore a crucial challenge for IEA governments and indicators have an important role to play in helping to develop and evaluate the policies that will be required.     

Policies to reduce energy use and carbon emissions in the UK

The UK differs from may other industrialized nations in that its carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from energy use have declined in recent years despite relatively rapid economic growth. In all sectors but transport, substantial reductions have already occurred in the level of carbon emissions per unit of GDP output. At the same time, a number of official and unofficial studies have pointed out that the UK has one of the largest remaining potentials amongst comparable industrialized countries for achieving further CO₂ reductions through the implementation of cost-effective energy efficiency and fuel switching measures. This paper discusses past and present patterns of energy use and carbons emissions in the UK. The analysis then examines historical trends in UK energy policy and presents policy options for further reducing the UK's energy-use and carbon emissions in the future.     

Prospective on the energy efficiency and CO2 emissions in the EU cement industry

The cement industry is the third largest carbon emitting industrial sector in the EU. The present work analyses the potential for improvement in the energy efficiency and CO₂ emission reduction for this sector up to 2030. Three scenarios are analysed: baseline scenario (BS) representing the current evolution of the cement sector and two alternative scenarios (AS1 and AS2) studying respectively the sensitivity of fuel prices and CO₂ emission prices. The results for the BS show an improvement in the thermal energy efficiency and the CO₂ emissions per tonne of clinker respectively of 11% and 3.7% in 2030 compared with the level of 2002. However, for AS1 and AS2, these scenarios are insensitive to fuel and CO₂ emission prices, respectively. This can be explained by the fact that a large number of retrofits are economically feasible in the BS, leading to a significant reduction in the thermal energy consumption.     

The role of energy efficiency spending in Maryland’s implementation of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative

What are the economic consequences of increased state spending on electricity consumption efficiency? The State of Maryland faces this question in deciding how much of its CO₂ allowances auction proceeds (under the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative) to devote to such programs. Starting at a base of 25% of the proceeds, we consider the energy savings, emissions reductions, employment, and other impacts of increasing that percentage to 50% and 100%. A series of models – Haiku, JHU-OUTEC, and IMPLAN – are used for the analysis. We conclude that increasing the state’s expenditures on energy efficiency programs would result in a decline in electricity consumption in the state and a corresponding decline in expenditures on electricity. Program implementation would lead to net positive growth in statewide economic activity and include growth in both jobs and wages.     

Medium-term energy outlook for Cyprus and its policy implications

This short paper presents results from an energy forecast model for the Republic of Cyprus. The model was used during years 2010–2011 to assist national authorities in their preparation of the National Renewable Energy Action Plan and the Energy Efficiency Action Plan of Cyprus in line with the requirements of European Union Directives. Major macroeconomic and price assumptions of the model are presented, and results from model application under different assumptions with regard to the evolution of energy efficiency are outlined and discussed. On the basis of these scenarios the paper discusses policy implications for Cyprus regarding the country's compliance with EU energy and climate legislation.     

The trouble with energy efficiency indexes: la aritmetic non e opinione

Rising energy use and energy-related global greenhouse gas emissions are encouraging new national energy efficiency policies and long-term international cooperative agreements. These require on-going studies to monitor their progress; thus, substantial effort must be directed toward developing reliable evaluation methodologies. One proposed methodology that is gaining in popularity involves energy efficiency indexes. The purpose of this paper is to show that there is a fundamental shortcoming in this approach that makes it unsuitable for estimating policy impacts. This is done in two ways: first, by comparing the calculation of a percent change in energy efficiency indexes to a conventional calculation of a percent change in the level of energy use and, second, by using a Monte Carlo experiment to estimate the probability that policy impacts estimated via an energy efficiency index, even one that has been adjusted, will contain a high degree of error.     

An energy development strategy for the USSR Minimizing greenhouse gas emissions

The second largest national consumer of commercial energy in the world, the USSR also emits large quantities of energy-related CO₂. This study uses four long-term scenarios of energy use and related emissions to investigate opportunities for reducing the USSR's greenhouse gas emissions over the next 30 years. This paper shows that if no measures are taken to control these emissions, CO₂ and methane will increase by 1.5 to 2 times the 1990 level by the year 2020. However, this growth can be restrained dramatically through structural changes in the Soviet economy, improved energy efficiency and interfuel substitutions. Abating emissions of carbon in the USSR would entail the widespread implementation of energy policies and, for more substantial reductions, higher investments from the Soviet economy. Achieving these goals would also require broad support from the international community.     

How organizational and global factors condition the effects of energy efficiency on CO2 emission rebounds among the world's power plants

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and several nations suggest that energy efficiency is an effective strategy for reducing energy consumption and associated greenhouse gas emissions. Skeptics contend that because efficiency lowers the price of energy and energy services, it may actually increase demand for them, causing total emissions to rise. While both sides of this debate have researched the magnitude of these so-called rebound effects among end-use consumers, researchers have paid less attention to the conditions under which direct rebounds cause CO₂ emissions to rise among industrial producers. In particular, researchers have yet to explore how organizational and global factors might condition the effects of efficiency on emissions among power plants, the world's most concentrated sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Here we use a unique dataset containing nearly every fossil-fuel power plant in the world to determine whether the impact of efficiency on emissions varies by plants' age, size, and location in global economic and normative systems. Findings reveal that each of these factors has a significant interaction with efficiency and thus shapes environmentally destructive rebound effects.     

Polices for increasing energy efficiency: Thirty years of experience in OECD countries

Energy efficiency improvement was an important phenomenon in the global energy balance over the past 30 years. Without energy efficiency improvements, the OECD nations would have used approximately 49% more energy than was actually consumed as of 1998. This paper first reviews energy intensity trends for the major OECD nations since 1973, considering how much of the overall reduction in E/GDP was due to energy efficiency improvement and how much was due to structural change. The bulk of the paper examines the energy efficiency policies and programs adopted in Japan, United States, and Western Europe, commenting on their effectiveness and energy savings impacts where possible. The paper also reviews the energy efficiency policies and programs adopted in California. This experience shows that well-designed policies can result in substantial energy savings, as demonstrated in the United States where nine specific policies and programs reduced primary energy use in 2002 by approximately 11%. Substantial energy savings also occurred in Japan, some European countries, and in the electricity sector in California.     

Calculating economy-wide energy intensity decline rate: The role of sectoral output and energy shares

We specify formulas for computing the rate of decline in economy-wide energy intensity by aggregating its two determinants—technical efficiency improvements in the various sectors of the economy, and shifts in economic activity among these sectors. The formulas incorporate the interdependence between sectoral shares, and establish a one-to-one relation between sectoral output and energy shares. This helps to eliminate future energy intensity decline scenarios which involve implausible values of either sectoral share. An illustrative application of the formulas is provided, using within-sector efficiency improvement estimates suggested by Lightfoot–Green and Harvey.     

Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector

Rapid growth of road vehicles, private vehicles in particular, has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand and imports, which has been widely accepted as a major factor effecting future oil availability and prices, and a major contributor to China's GHG emission increase. This paper is intended to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector and to assess the effectiveness of possible reduction measures. A detailed model has been developed to derive a reliable historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector between 2000 and 2005 and to project future trends. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of China's road transport sector. The ‘Business as Usual’ scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario, in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long-term trends of road transport energy demand. The ‘Best Case’ scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures such as private vehicle control, fuel economy regulation, promoting diesel and gas vehicles, fuel tax and biofuel promotion, are assumed to be implemented. Energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios. The total reduction potentials in the ‘Best Case’ scenario and the relative reduction potentials of each measure have been estimated.     

A model to estimate energy demand and CO2 emissions for the Indian cement industry

A modelling framework based on linear dynamic programming techniques is presented which has been used to estimate energy demand as well as CO₂ emissions associated with the Indian cement industry for different scenarios during the period 1992–2021. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.