Optimal over installation of wind generation facilities

This paper evaluates the economic benefits to over-installing turbines on capacity-constrained wind farm sites in order to capture more energy at low wind speeds. Although this implies curtailment at high wind speeds, we show that over installing generation facilities can increase returns to investors and reduce system costs. A detailed model-based analysis is developed using British data, with variations in the range of over installation, the renewable policy support systems (fixed feed-in tariffs or green certificate premia to wholesale energy prices) and the extent of replacement of fossil generation in the technology mix with wind. In the cases of premia to market prices, we use agent-based, computational learning and risk simulation to model market prices. Not only is over installation beneficial under fixed feed-in tariffs, but is more so under premia to market prices and increasingly so as wind replaces fossil generation.     

RES support in Russia: Impact on capacity and electricity market prices

Russian renewable energy policy has undergone changes following an establishment of targets for installed capacity and power production using renewable energy sources and the introduction of new capacity based support scheme for renewable energy. The forecasted amount of future renewable power will not provide enough power production to meet growing demand for renewable energy; although, it will help with modernization of the energy sector and development of renewable technology and innovation. At the same time, the capacity support scheme for renewable energy may adversely affect capacity prices and become an additional burden for industrial consumers, who are already paying the cost of capacity support for conventional power plants, so-called Capacity Delivery Agreements (CDAs). This work assesses the impact of the new capacity based support scheme on capacity and electricity price formation. Modeling results show that the impact of capacity support for renewable energy is small compared to that of capacity support for conventional energy, suggesting that the Russian energy production mix will continue to be dominated by fossil fuel based generation.     

Using renewables to hedge against future electricity industry uncertainties—An Australian case study

A generation portfolio modelling was employed to assess the expected costs, cost risk and emissions of different generation portfolios in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) under highly uncertain gas prices, carbon pricing policy and electricity demand. Outcomes were modelled for 396 possible generation portfolios, each with 10,000 simulations of possible fuel and carbon prices and electricity demands. In 2030, the lowest expected cost generation portfolio includes 60% renewable energy. Increasing the renewable proportion to 75% slightly increased expected cost (by $0.2/MWh), but significantly decreased the standard deviation of cost (representing the cost risk). Increasing the renewable proportion from the present 15% to 75% by 2030 is found to decrease expected wholesale electricity costs by $17/MWh. Fossil-fuel intensive portfolios have substantial cost risk associated with high uncertainty in future gas and carbon prices. Renewables can effectively mitigate cost risk associated with gas and carbon price uncertainty. This is found to be robust to a wide range of carbon pricing assumptions. This modelling suggests that policy mechanisms to promote an increase in renewable generation towards a level of 75% by 2030 would minimise costs to consumers, and mitigate the risk of extreme electricity prices due to uncertain gas and carbon prices.     

The plunge in German electricity futures prices – Analysis using a parsimonious fundamental model

The German market has seen a plunge in wholesale electricity prices from 2007 until 2014, with base futures prices dropping by more than 40%. This is frequently attributed to the unexpected high increase in renewable power generation. Using a parsimonious fundamental model, we determine the respective impact of supply and demand shocks on electricity futures prices. The used methodology is based on a piecewise linear approximation of the supply stack and time-varying price-inelastic demand. This parsimonious model is able to replicate electricity futures prices and discover non-linear dependencies in futures price formation. We show that emission prices have a higher impact on power prices than renewable penetration. Changes in renewables, demand and installed capacities turn out to be similarly important for explaining the decrease in operation margins of conventional power plants. We thus argue for the establishment of an independent authority to stabilize emission prices.     

Support schemes for renewable electricity in the European Union: Producer strategies and competition

Current discussion about how to reform European support schemes for renewable electricity neglects certain risks of market power in wholesale electricity markets. In a stylized Cournot model of interacting spot and forward electricity markets, I analyze how different price-based support schemes affect producer strategies and, ultimately, competition in the wholesale market. I compare the strategic behavior of renewable and conventional producers in terms of electricity production and forward market sales in the presence of two different price-based support schemes: feed-in tariffs and feed-in premiums. I show that the feed-in premium, which is the European Commission's current scheme of choice, may enhance market power and favor conventional electricity production. It may also reduce the likelihood of achieving the political objective to increase production from renewable energy sources.     

Cost and benefit of renewable energy in the European Union

An assessment is made as to whether renewable energy use for electricity generation in the EU was beneficial throughout the cycle of high and low oil prices. Costs and benefits are calculated with the EU statistics for the period of low oil prices 1998–2002 and high oil prices 2003–2009. The share of renewable energy in electricity production was 21% of all energy resources in 2008, growing on average 5% a year during 2003–2008 compared to nil growth of the fossil fuels mix. Correlations show significant impacts of growing renewable energy use on changes in consumers' electricity prices during the high and rapidly increasing fossil fuel prices in the period 2005–2008. The growing use has contributed to price decrease in most countries that use more renewable energy and price increase in many countries that use little renewable energy. Costs and benefits are assessed through comparison between the observed consumers' electricity prices and simulated prices had they followed the costs of fossil fuel mix. A net benefit of 47 billion euro throughout the oil price cycle is attributable to the growing use of renewable energy, which is on average 8 billion euro a year. This net benefit is larger than the total public support for renewable energy. The net benefit would be larger had the EU anticipated high oil prices through more public support during low oil prices, as this would create productive capacity, but countries' interests increasingly differed. An anti-cyclic EU policy is recommended.     

Efficient pricing and investment in electricity markets with intermittent resources

Facing growing technological and environmental challenges, the electricity industry needs effective pricing mechanism to promote efficient risk management and investment decisions. In a restructured electricity market with competitive wholesale prices and traditionally regulated retail rates, however, there are technical and institutional barriers that prevent dynamic pricing with price responsive demand. In regions with limited energy storage capacity, intermittent renewable resources present special challenges. This could adversely affect the effectiveness of public policies causing inefficient investments in energy technologies. In this paper, we present an updated economic model of pricing and investment in restructured electricity market and use the model in a simulation study for an initial assessment of renewable energy strategy and alternative pricing mechanisms. A key objective of the study is to shed light on the policy issues so that effective decisions can be made to improve efficiency.     

Renewable fuels: Policy effectiveness and project risk

This paper examines the impact of government policy on the risk profile of a small ethanol production facility. We derive four key results from a simulation model. First, we show that commodity price risk may discourage investment in a project, despite a positive expected rate of return. Second, we show that political uncertainty may have significant impacts on the risk profile of a project. Next, we show that using only production subsidies to attract investors is expensive, since the financial assistance is paid regardless of whether the plant is operating under positive or negative financial conditions. Finally, we show that a capital grant provides a valuable complement to a subsidy, because the grant reduces the amount of value investors must put at risk, and increases their leverage thereby enhancing returns, while the subsidy mitigates commodity price risk. Our results show that compared to a subsidy-only approach, a grant and subsidy combination provides an investment environment with similar downside protection and expected returns for less than 60% of the cost. Further, we show that the two policy tools combined yield a superior investment environment to that created by an equivalent or greater total investment deployed entirely in either of the policy tools without the other.     

Are green bonds environmentally friendly and good performing assets?

The first objective of this paper is to study the existence of greenness in green bonds. For this objective, we propose a new model of price correlations between green bonds and energy commodities. The second objective is to examine the performance of green bonds over conventional bonds. We propose a new model of the expected return, the risk, and the performance ratio of green bond premiums defined by the log price differences between green and conventional bonds so as to address the second objective. Empirical studies using the data of green and conventional bond indices and crude oil prices show that the Bloomberg Barclays MSCI and the S&P green bond indices tend to have positive correlations with and increase in line with both WTI and Brent crude oil prices while the Solactive green bond index tends to have negative correlations with and decrease in line with both WTI and Brent crude oil prices. From the empirical evidence of the positive relationship between energy and environmental value, it is suggested that the greenness is incorporated in the Bloomberg Barclays MSCI and the S&P green bond. In contrast taking it into account that the conventional S&P bond index has negative correlations with WTI and Brent crude oil prices which are the same as the results of the Solactive green bond index, the Solactive green bond index may not fully represent the characteristics of green bonds in the sense of environmental value. We also demonstrate that the expected returns of green bond premiums are positive while decreasing and that the risks of green bond premiums are slightly decreasing but almost flat over time in the recent years, resulting in positive but decreasing information ratios. It implies that green bond investment performance is superior to conventional bond investment performance but the superiority is decaying over time.     

Optimal design of feed-in-tariffs to stimulate renewable energy investments under regulatory uncertainty — A real options analysis

Feed-in-tariffs (FITs) are widely used as policy instruments to promote investments in renewable energy sources (RES). While FITs are often regarded as the most effective RES support scheme, regulators around the world continuously review their FIT schemes in the light of budget constraints and evolving policy goals. We assess the impact of adjustments to FIT schemes by quantifying the relationship between FIT levels, i.e., the guaranteed amount paid per quantity of electricity produced and the propensity to invest in RES. Through a regime switching model, we quantify the impact of regulatory uncertainty induced by regulators considering moves from a FIT scheme to a more market-oriented regulatory regime. Our focus is on market-independent, fixed FITs, the dominant scheme in Europe receiving increasing attention globally. We find that RES investment projects under market-independent, fixed FIT schemes become now-or-never decisions and derive FIT thresholds required to induce investment. We show that uncertainty regarding future regulatory regimes delays or even reduces investment activity for FIT levels near electricity market prices and high probabilities of an imminent regime switch.     

Abuse of dominance and antitrust enforcement in the German electricity market

In 2008, the European Commission investigated E.ON, a large and vertically integrated electricity company, for the alleged abuse of a joint dominant position by strategically withholding generation capacity in the German wholesale electricity market. The case was settled after E.ON agreed to divest 5 GW generation capacity as well as its extra-high voltage network. We analyze the effect of these divestitures on wholesale electricity prices. Our identification strategy is based on the observation that energy suppliers have more market power during peak periods when demand is high. Therefore, a decrease in market power should lead to convergence between peak and off-peak prices, after controlling for different demand and supply conditions as well as the change in generation mix due to the expansion of renewable technologies. Using daily electricity prices for the 2006–2012 period, we find economically and statistically significant convergence effects after the settlement of the case. In a richer specification, we show that the price reductions appear to be mostly due to the divestiture of gas and coal plants, which is consistent with merit-order considerations. Additional cross-country analyses support our results.     

Merchant renewables and the valuation of peaking plant in energy-only markets

Merchant renewables are a new asset class. With historically high cost structures and low wholesale prices associated with merit order effects, continuity of entry has been reliant on Renewable Portfolio Standards or other policy initiatives such as government-initiated Contracts-for-Differences. But in Australia's National Electricity Market, sharply falling costs of renewables and volatile wholesale market conditions over the period 2017–2020 led to a surprising number of merchant intermittent renewable investments. Adding to the merchant renewable fleet are older wind plants whose inaugural long-dated PPAs recently matured. Rolling over PPAs is possible, but not necessarily optimal. In this article, a merchant gas turbine, merchant wind, and an integrated portfolio comprising both plants are valued in the NEM's South Australian region. Asset valuations reveal surprising results. The modelling sequence shows stand-alone gas turbine valuation metrics suffer from modest levels of missing money, that merchant wind can commit to some level of forward (fixed volume) swap contracts in-spite of intermittent production, but the combined portfolio tightens overall valuation metrics significantly. Above all, the combined portfolio is financially tractable, overcoming the missing money for a gas turbine plant undertaking peaking duties. In a NEM region where intermittent renewable market share exceeds 50%, this suggests the energy-only, real-time gross pool design may yet be deemed suitable vis-à-vis meeting environmental objectives and Resource Adequacy.     

Biomass gasification in district heating systems – The effect of economic energy policies

Biomass gasification is considered a key technology in reaching targets for renewable energy and CO₂ emissions reduction. This study evaluates policy instruments affecting the profitability of biomass gasification applications integrated in a Swedish district heating (DH) system for the medium-term future (around year 2025). Two polygeneration applications based on gasification technology are considered in this paper: (1) a biorefinery plant co-producing synthetic natural gas (SNG) and district heat; (2) a combined heat and power (CHP) plant using integrated gasification combined cycle technology. Using an optimisation model we identify the levels of policy support, here assumed to be in the form of tradable certificates, required to make biofuel production competitive to biomass based electricity generation under various energy market conditions. Similarly, the tradable green electricity certificate levels necessary to make gasification based electricity generation competitive to conventional steam cycle technology, are identified. The results show that in order for investment in the SNG biorefinery to be competitive to investment in electricity production in the DH system, biofuel certificates in the range of 24–42 EUR/MWh are needed. Electricity certificates are not a prerequisite for investment in gasification based CHP to be competitive to investment in conventional steam cycle CHP, given sufficiently high electricity prices. While the required biofuel policy support is relatively insensitive to variations in capital cost, the required electricity certificates show high sensitivity to variations in investment costs. It is concluded that the large capital commitment and strong dependency on policy instruments makes it necessary that DH suppliers believe in the long-sightedness of future support policies, in order for investments in large-scale biomass gasification in DH systems to be realised.     

Economic analysis of sector coupling business models: Application on green hydrogen use cases

Sector coupling will play a key role in the future energy system to realise greenhouse gas emission reductions. A major factor will be green hydrogen based on renewable energies to defossilise consumption sectors. Related business models of power to gas are not yet implemented on the market. However, given the urgency of the change, this is essential.This paper investigates hydrogen business models under current market conditions of high power prices, no existing market for green hydrogen and the given regulatory framework with no levies for green hydrogen production in the German market. For this purpose, an open-source business model evaluation tool for sector coupling, which enables a simple and generic evaluation of sector coupling business models including production and possible transportation infrastructure, is developed and applied. Furthermore, the impact of changes of the input parameters like power prices and the influence of regulatory changes on profitability are assessed.The results show that X-to-power business cases can be already profitable due to high power prices on the wholesale market. However, power-to-X business models like hydrogen production still have negative net present values and the net present value is worsened when infrastructure for hydrogen transportation is considered. Key parameters for the negative result are investment costs and low hydrogen prices. Nevertheless, it must be considered that higher hydrogen prices have a negative impact on the X-to-power business model. To allow for profitable business cases, the market conditions need to be adjusted to ensure sufficiently high prices for green hydrogen. Furthermore, subsidies on investment or operational and maintenance costs can support the integration of power-to-X into the market. Transportation infrastructure has a significant impact on profitability. Given these facts, it is necessary to create the required framework conditions to ensure the realisation of sector coupling.     

The impact of the German response to the Fukushima earthquake

The German response to the Fukushima nuclear power plant incident was possibly the most significant change of policy towards nuclear power outside Japan, leading to a sudden and very substantial shift in the underlying power generation structure in Germany, an enthusiastic leading proponent of renewable power. This provides a very useful experiment on the impact of a supply shock in the context of increasing relative generation by renewable compared to conventional fuel inputs into power production. Our quasi-experimental exploration of a modified demand-supply framework finds that despite the swift, unpredicted change in nuclear power, the main impact was a significant average increase in prices, surprisingly particularly at low residual load levels.     

The impact of intermittently renewable energy on Italian wholesale electricity prices: Additional benefits or additional costs?

Most studies of the literature find that the development of renewable energy sources determines a decrease in the wholesale prices. Some authors use this finding to state that the current subsidies for renewable technologies cannot be considered as excessive. By carrying out a hybrid analysis (both simulation and ex-post empirical analyses) of the case of photovoltaic energy in Italy, this article demonstrates that this result cannot be generalised. Under market power, an increase in PV production can provide benefits in terms of a wholesale price decrease only beyond a specific threshold and especially if combined with other effects. Otherwise, it is likely that PV development could imply an increase in prices. Therefore, on the one hand, caution is necessary when using the estimated change in wholesale prices to evaluate the net cost for consumers of the supporting policies for renewables: either the simulation-based models or the full empirical analyses may be misleading. On the other hand, if "decarbonisation" is the main objective, the energy policies should be designed in order to assure a deep and balanced penetration of the clean technologies, regardless of their estimated transitory impact on wholesale prices (and in the meantime reviewing the organisation of power markets).     

Lessons from market reform for renewable integration in the European Union

The European Union (EU) has the most advanced, mature, and liberal energy markets that gave rise to the most dramatic drop in wholesale energy prices, whose fallen, however, has not been translated into a reduction in retail energy prices. Instead, energy prices in Europe rose above inflation year-in-year-out, and are considerably higher compared with major economic partners. This paper highlights the key limitations in the EU market designs and network access toward renewable integration, and the wide range of reforms that the EU is currently undertaken across the Member States to achieve two goals: to make the market fit for renewable, and to set a practical example of how a competitive economy can be built on a sustainable and affordable energy system. This paper concludes with key recommendations to developing nations, particularly in addressing heavy renewable curtailment.     

The impact of wind generation on the electricity spot-market price level and variance: The Texas experience

The literature on renewable energy suggests that an increase in intermittent wind generation would reduce the spot electricity market price by displacing high fuel-cost marginal generation. Taking advantage of a large file of Texas-based 15-min data, we show that while rising wind generation does indeed tend to reduce the level of spot prices, it is also likely to enlarge the spot-price variance. The key policy implication is that increasing use of price risk management should accompany expanded deployment of wind generation.     

Green energy market development in Germany: effective public policy and emerging customer demand

This paper reviews the development of renewable energy in Germany from 1973 to 2003. It investigates the relative importance of energy policy and green power marketing in shaping the renewable energy market. More than a decade of consistent policy support for renewables under the feed-in law (StrEG) and its successor (EEG) has been an important driver for increasing renewable electricity generation to date, putting the country in a better position than most of its peers when it comes to achieving European Union targets for renewable energy. Green power marketing driven by customer demand, on the other hand, is growing, but has had limited measurable impact so far. We discuss potential intangible benefits of green power marketing and scenarios for future market development. The paper concludes with lessons that can be learned from the German case for policy design and market development in other countries.     

Energy subsidies,structure of electricity prices and technological change of energy use

This paper addresses the impact of the structure of energy prices on technological change in renewable energy sources. It operates on two fields of research that are often not related to each other. Firstly, the increasing interest in environmental economics for the determinants of green technological change, and secondly the impact of government policies aimed at subsidizing energy prices. Recent research claims a positive relationship between energy prices and the number of patents in the fields of energy efficiency. This paper extends this research by investigating the impact of the price structure of electricity on patent counts in 1) renewable energy sources, 2) wind energy and 3) solar power. In nearly all OECD countries in the period 1990–2006 industrial energy users pay a lower price per energy unit than households due, among others, to government subsidy policies. The empirical results show that reducing government subsidies and hence increasing the electricity price of (large) industrial electricity users relative to the price paid by (small) residential users provides a clear incentive to increase inventions as measured by number of patents in the technical fields of solar and wind energy. These results are an important input in the debate on reducing government support to large energy users.