Technological learning and renewable energy costs: implications for US renewable energy policy

This paper analyzes the relationship between current renewable energy technology costs and cumulative production, research, development and demonstration expenditures, and other institutional influences. Combining the theoretical framework of ‘learning by doing’ and developments in ‘learning by searching’ with the fields of organizational learning and institutional economics offers a complete methodological framework to examine the underlying capital cost trajectory when developing electricity cost estimates used in energy policy planning models. Sensitivities of the learning rates for global wind and solar photovoltaic technologies to changes in the model parameters are tested. The implications of the results indicate that institutional policy instruments play an important role for these technologies to achieve cost reductions and further market adoption.     

A reactor-level analysis of busbar costs for US nuclear plants, 1970–2005

We present a reactor-by-reactor analysis of historical busbar costs for 99 nuclear reactors in the United States, and compare those costs with recent projections for next-generation US reactors. We argue that cost projections far different from median historical costs require more justification than estimates that lie close to those medians. Our analysis suggests that some recent projections of capital costs, construction duration, and total operations and maintenance costs are quite low—far enough from the historical medians that additional scrutiny may be required to justify using such estimates in current policy discussions and planning.     

使用新技术新材料新工艺追求效益最大化

最佳设计、最佳工艺、最低成本是产品开发和生产的关键。本文结合实例论证了依此促进科学技术不断发展、提高社会效益和经济效益的必要性和必然性。     

Nuclear renaissance,public perception and design criteria: An exploratory review

There is currently an international drive to build new nuclear power plants, bringing about what is being termed a “nuclear renaissance”. However, the public perception of nuclear energy has historically been, and continues to be, a key issue, particularly in light of the Fukushima nuclear incident. This paper discusses the disparity between perceived and calculated risks based on the last four decades of research into risk perception. The leading psychological and sociological theories, Psychometric Paradigm and Cultural Theory, respectively, are critically reviewed. The authors then argue that a new nuclear-build policy that promotes a broader approach to design incorporating a wider range of stakeholder inputs, including that of the lay public, may provide a means for reducing the perceived risk of a nuclear plant. Further research towards such a new approach to design is proposed, based on integrating expert and lay stakeholder inputs and taking into account broader socio-cultural factors whilst maintaining the necessary emphasis on safety, technological development, economics and environmental sustainability.     

The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing

The paper reviews the history and the economics of the French PWR program, which is arguably the most successful nuclear-scale up experience in an industrialized country. Key to this success was a unique institutional framework that allowed for centralized decision making, a high degree of standardization, and regulatory stability, epitomized by comparatively short reactor construction times.     

The effect of financial constraints,technological progress and long-term contracts on tradable green certificates

Tradable green certificates (TGCs) have recently become a diffuse instrument to support renewable electricity in OECD countries. Although it is perhaps too early to draw a conclusive judgement on the effectiveness of this instrument in increasing renewable capacity and decreasing the price of certificates, one view in the literature maintains that long-term contracts are of particular importance for TGCs to be effective. This paper contributes to this debate by analysing how financial constraints and technological progress can induce investors to hold pessimistic expectations of their ability to sell green certificates and still make a profit. Clearly, these expectations will prevent investors from building new capacity to fulfil the quota comprised in TGCs and will keep the price of certificates traded in the market high. As this kind of expectation is not influenced by most design features of TGCs, one can conclude that long-term contracts are particularly important in determining the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of these instruments. Some attention should therefore be paid to the features of the TGCs, which induce obliged parties to offer long-term contracts to renewable generators.     

全球新能源技术发展:以技术垄断与技术扩散为视角

概述了全球新能源技术发展格局,以技术垄断和技术扩散为视角分析了新能源技术垄断与技术扩散的形成机理与关系,介绍了发达国家新能源技术垄断与技术扩散的模式,并指出未来我国新能源技术发展的两条路径.     

墙体保温的几种施工方法及利弊分析

分析墙体泛霜、结露、长毛等现象产生的原因及防治方法,介绍目前北方地区墙体保温的几种形式。通过对各种保温形式利弊的分析总结出外墙外保温更适于质量控制,简要说明了外保温的施工工艺及其不足之处。     

Feasibility study of 2020 target costs for PEM fuel cells and lithium-ion batteries: A two-factor experience curve approach

Vehicles with electric drive trains are currently the subject of intense discussion by society. The cost trends of the individual components in the electric drive train are a central aspect of the future market success of the different vehicle drive systems.     

Empirical study on the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 in France: The role of nuclear energy

This paper attempts to estimate the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in the case of France by taking the role of nuclear energy in electricity production into account. We adopt the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration as the estimation method. Additionally, we examine the stability of the estimated models and investigate the Granger causality relationships between the variables in the system. The results from our estimation provide evidence supporting the EKC hypothesis, and the estimated models are shown to be stable over the sample period. The uni-direction running from other variables to CO₂ emissions are confirmed from the casualty tests. Specifically, the uni-directional causality relationship running from nuclear energy to CO₂ emissions statistically provides evidence on the important role of nuclear energy in reducing CO₂ emissions.     

美国核能辩论现状与政策趋向分析

美国国内在是否利用核能发电这个问题上一直存在争议,拥核派和反核派的分歧主要是在核电成本是否高、核能是否安全以及核能是否属于清洁能源等方面。受日本核危机影响,美国核能辩论的重点转向核能安全,主要围绕核电站抵御自然灾害的能力、核废料储存、是否应该新建核电站以及延长现有核电站运营期限等问题展开。由于历次重大核事故后,新建核电站成本势必上升,加之美国各州新建核电站积极性不高,国际大环境也不利于拥核派,同时核能面临化石能源和可再生能源的激烈竞争,因此短期内美国核能开发步伐势必会放慢。但是从长期看,核能仍将是美国能源战略的重点之一,究其原因,发展核能是美国能源安全与经济发展的需要,也是应对气候变化的需要,另外,拥核派的积极游说和公关行动、反核派内部立场出现分化以及日本核危机的长期影响有限等也都是其原因之一。我国是世界上在建核反应堆数量最多的国家,但是围绕核能的公开辩论却很少,这不利于我国核能的开发。核能的辩论过程,也是核能知识普及的过程,只有对核能有深入全面的认识,才能减少对核能非理性的恐惧。我国绝不能因为一次核事故而改变战略方向,而应在吸取教训的基础上,在保证绝对安全的前提下,继续发展核能。     

The costs of hydro power: Evidence on learning-by-doing,economies of scale and resource constraints in Austria

The paper investigates the costs of hydro power plants. Expansion of hydro power is accompanied by two contrary tendencies. First, learning-by-doing and technological progress for the industry as a whole which reduce costs over time, and second, resource constraints which tend to increase costs as more and more hydro power capacity is installed. Hence, a U-shaped cost curve should apply. In particular, hydro power expansion becomes increasingly costly once a substantial fraction of potential hydro power supply is exploited. This hypothesis is empirically applied to Austrian data.     

The use of CPC collectors for detoxification of contaminated water: Design, construction and preliminary results

Photocatalytic processes in the presence of titanium dioxide provide an interesting way to destroy hazardous organic contaminants. Part of CIEMAT’s efforts to commercialize solar photocatalytic detoxification technology has involved the development of photoreactor designs. Although present treatment costs for the solar water detoxification system are higher than for conventional technologies, potentially greater cost reductions are being investigated through the use of one-sun systems. Aspects of these systems that might realize cost reductions include novel collector materials, the manufacturing process and the economics of scale. These issues are being examined extensively in the one-sun photoreactor research effort. A one-sun compound parabolic concentrator designed by CIEMAT and fabricated by the Instituto de Maquina Herramienta may be constructed at a cost under $160/m² with an annual efficiency of 71.3%. Studies reported in this paper also evaluate the performance of the low cost CPC prototype built at a previous stage using a model compound, and explore the feasibility of this concept as the basis for solar photocatalytic oxidation facilities. Our preliminary findings show that the overall treatment cost can be reduced mainly by reducing the unit catalyst cost instead of the unit reactor cost.     

Solid oxide fuel cell: Decade of progress,future perspectives and challenges

In an increasing demand of renewable energy resources, fuel cell represents the highly efficient, clean and sustainable energy conversion source. Broadly speaking, fuel cell can be divided into six different categories according to the types of electrolyte and fuels used. Each type of fuel cells has their own advantages and disadvantages. Among them, solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) gains significant attentions due to their high efficiency, cost-effectiveness and the possibility to utilize variety of fuels other than hydrogen such as hydrocarbons, coal gas etc. As name implies, SOFC uses solid electrolyte for their operation. Indeed, in medium and large power requirement sectors, SOFC are highly suitable. In the present review article, recent advances and future perspectives of SOFC have been discussed via reviewing the literature over last five years. Most of the available review articles discussed the literature in terms of specific SOFC component such as anode, cathode, electrolytes and so on. In contrast, herein the literatures have been reviewed in the context of two types of SOFC stack designs i.e. planar and tubular that have been immensely used to fabricate efficient SOFC devices. Furthermore, fundamental of SOFC operation and its typical I–V characteristics and SOFC designs are also discussed in detail. Furthermore, preparation techniques for planar and tubular SOFC are briefly described. Finally, some of the recent trends in SOFC technology along with challenges and future perspectives are presented in this review article.     

按照"三大一特"思路加快我国能源结构调整和布局优化

阐述了我国发展大煤电、大水电、大核电、采用特高压方式远距离输电的重要意义;介绍了我国发展“三大一特”具备的条件;分析了加快发展“三大一特”需要做的工作。     

The cost of pipelining climate change mitigation: An overview of the economics of CH4, CO2 and H2 transportation

Gases like CH₄, CO₂ and H₂ may play a key role in establishing a sustainable energy system: CH₄ is the least carbon-intensive fossil energy resource; CO₂ capture and storage can significantly reduce the climate footprint of especially fossil-based electricity generation; and the use of H₂ as energy carrier could enable carbon-free automotive transportation. Yet the construction of large pipeline infrastructures usually constitutes a major and time-consuming undertaking, because of safety and environmental issues, legal and (geo)political siting arguments, technically un-trivial installation processes, and/or high investment cost requirements. In this article we focus on the latter and present an overview of both the total costs and cost components of the distribution of these three gases via pipelines. Possible intricacies and external factors that strongly influence these costs, like the choice of location and terrain, are also included in our analysis. Our distribution cost breakdown estimates are based on transportation data for CH₄, which we adjust for CO₂ and H₂ in order to account for the specific additional characteristics of these two gases. The overall trend is that pipeline construction is no longer subject to significant cost reductions. For the purpose of designing energy and climate policy we therefore know in principle with reasonable certainty what the minimum distribution cost components of future energy systems are that rely on pipelining these gases. We describe the reasons why we observe limited learning-by-doing and explain why negligible construction cost reductions for future CH₄, CO₂ and H₂ pipeline projects can be expected. Cost data of individual pipeline projects may strongly deviate from the global average because of national or regional effects related to the type of terrain, but also to varying costs of labor and fluctuating market prices of components like steel.     

Oil taxation in the presence of consumer adjustment costs and volatile prices: The case of small countries

Politicians in various countries (e.g. in the USA, Switzerland and Austria) have suggested the levy of different forms of taxes or duties on crude oil. One of the major (normative) arguments behind all these proposals seems to somehow smooth oil prices after observing the dramatic oil price collapse and because of the conjecture of another, future oil price hike. Hence, these arguments refer (implicitly or explicitly) to adjustment costs to justify government intervention. This paper analyses whether the instrument of a tax on crude oil may improve welfare if oil prices are volatile and adjustment costs are important. It will be shown that these proposals are only defensible if the government is smart (uses foresight) and when the consumers are myopic. However, the optimal commodity tax should be zero if consumers and the government use the same forecast (perfect foresight).     

Hydrogen evolution reaction: The role of arsenene nanosheet and dopant

The state-of-the-art density functional theory (DFT) is employed to study the catalytic activity of arsenene for hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) and oxygen evolution reaction (OER). We have included dispersion correction to get accurate adsorption energy on the individual catalytic surface (top site). Using binding energy calculation, arsenene is shown to be a potential candidate for HER. Here we investigate the stability and electronic properties of the honeycomb structure of the arsenene system using first-principles calculation to find the effect of different dopants on the fundamental band gap, which is one of the primary parameters in the photocatalytic water splitting. Further, we sieved the dopant for better HER catalytic activity by substituting one of the arsenene (As) atoms by B, N, O, Ge, Ga and Se atoms to make arsenene a better candidate for HER. Our studies depict that HER activity is increased by 82% for O-doped arsenene and OER activity by 87% for B-doped arsenene as compared to pristine arsenene.     

Photoelectrochemical effect in dye sensitized, sputter deposited Ti oxide films: The role of thickness-dependent roughness and porosity

Ti oxide films were made by reactive DC magnetron sputtering onto electrically conducting glass substrates. The films were dye sensitized with an Ru complex, thereby yielding nanocrystalline solar cells. We investigated the microstructure of the films by X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, atomic force microscopy, and cyclic voltammetry on viologen-containing samples. The internal surface area was enhanced with increasing film thickness, and this property could be correlated with an enlarged photoelectric conversion efficiency.