Oil consumption and CO2 emissions in China's road transport: current status,future trends,and policy implications

With the rapid economic growth in China, the Chinese road transport system is becoming one of the largest and most rapidly growing oil consumers in China. This paper attempts to present the current status and forecast the future trends of oil demand and CO₂ emissions from the Chinese road transport sector and to explore possible policy measures to contain the explosive growth of Chinese transport oil consumption. A bottom-up model was developed to estimate the historical oil consumption and CO₂ emissions from China's road transport sector between 1997 and 2002 and to forecast future trends in oil consumption and CO₂ emissions up to 2030. To explore the importance of policy options of containing the dramatic growth in Chinese transport oil demand, three scenarios regarding motor vehicle fuel economy improvements were designed in predicting future oil use and CO₂ emissions. We conclude that China's road transportation will gradually become the largest oil consumer in China in the next two decades but that improvements in vehicle fuel economy have potentially large oil-saving benefits. In particular, if no control measures are implemented, the annual oil demand by China's road vehicles will reach 363 million tons by 2030. On the other hand, under the low- and high-fuel economy improvement scenarios, 55 and 85 million tons of oil will be saved in 2030, respectively. The scenario analysis suggests that China needs to implement vehicle fuel economy improvement measures immediately in order to contain the dramatic growth in transport oil consumption. The imminent implementation is required because (1) China is now in a period of very rapid growth in motor vehicle sales; (2) Chinese vehicles currently in the market are relatively inefficient; and (3) the turnover of a fleet of inefficient motor vehicles will take a long time.     

Energy and CO2 emissions performance in China's regional economies: Do market-oriented reforms matter?

This paper employs a newly developed non-radial directional distance function to evaluate China's regional energy and CO₂ emission performance for the period 1997–2009. Moreover, we analyze the impact of China's market-oriented reform on China's regional energy and carbon efficiency. The main findings are as follows. First, most of China's regions did not perform efficiently in energy use and CO₂ emissions. Provinces in the east area generally performed better than those in the central and west areas. By contrast, provinces in the west area generally evidenced the lowest efficiency. Second, Market-oriented reforms, especially the promotion of factor market, were found to have positive effect on the efficiency of energy use and CO₂ emissions. Third, the share of coal in the total energy consumption and the expansion of the industrial sector were found to be negatively correlated with China's regional energy and CO₂ emissions performance. Based on the empirical findings, we provide policy suggestions for enhancing energy and carbon efficiency in China.     

CO2 emissions,energy consumption and economic growth in China: A panel data analysis

This paper examines the causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and real economic output using panel cointegration and panel vector error correction modeling techniques based on the panel data for 28 provinces in China over the period 1995–2007. Our empirical results show that CO₂ emissions, energy consumption and economic growth have appeared to be cointegrated. Moreover, there exists bidirectional causality between CO₂ emissions and energy consumption, and also between energy consumption and economic growth. It has also been found that energy consumption and economic growth are the long-run causes for CO₂ emissions and CO₂ emissions and economic growth are the long-run causes for energy consumption. The results indicate that China's CO₂ emissions will not decrease in a long period of time and reducing CO₂ emissions may handicap China's economic growth to some degree. Some policy implications of the empirical results have finally been proposed.     

Carbon emissions in China: How far can new efforts bend the curve?

While China is on track to meet its global climate commitments through 2020, China's post-2020 CO₂ emissions trajectory is highly uncertain, with projections varying widely across studies. Over the past year, the Chinese government has announced new policy directives to deepen economic reform, to protect the environment, and to limit fossil energy use in China. To evaluate how new policy directives could affect energy and climate change outcomes, we simulate two levels of policy effort—a continued effort scenario that extends current policies beyond 2020 and an accelerated effort scenario that reflects newly announced policies—on the evolution of China's energy and economic system over the next several decades. We perform simulations using the China-in-Global Energy Model, C-GEM, a bespoke recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model with global coverage and detailed calibration of China's economy and future trends. Importantly, we find that both levels of policy effort would bend down the CO₂ emissions trajectory before 2050 without undermining economic development. Specifically, in the accelerated effort scenario, we find that coal use peaks around 2020, and CO₂ emissions level off around 2030 at 10 bmt, without undermining continued economic growth consistent with China reaching the status of a “well-off society” by 2050.     

Factors influencing CO2 emissions in China's power industry: Co-integration analysis

More than 40% of China's total CO₂ emissions originate from the power industry. The realization of energy saving and emission reduction within China's power industry is therefore crucial in order to achieve CO₂ emissions reduction in this country. This paper applies the autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) co-integration model to study the major factors which have influenced CO₂ emissions within China's power industry from 1980 to 2010. Results have shown that CO₂ emissions from China's power industry have been increasing rapidly. From 1980 to 2010, the average annual growth rate was 8.5%, and the average growth rate since 2002 has amounted to 10.5%. Secondly, the equipment utilization hour (as an indicator of the power demand) has the greatest influence on CO₂ emissions within China's power industry. In addition, the impact of the industrial added value of the power sector on CO₂ emissions is also positive from a short-term perspective. Thirdly, the Granger causality results imply that one of the important motivators behind China's technological progress, within the power industry, originates from the pressures created by a desire for CO₂ emissions reduction. Finally, this paper provides policy recommendations for energy saving and emission reduction for China's power industry.     

Urban energy use and carbon emissions from cities in China and policy implications

Urban areas contain 40% of the population and contribute 75% of the Chinese national economy. Thus, a better understanding of urban energy uses is necessary for Chinese decision-makers at various levels to address energy security, climate change mitigation, and local pollution abatement. Therefore, this paper addresses three key questions: What is the urban contribution to China's energy usage and CO₂ emissions? What is the contribution of large cities, and what alternate energy–economy pathways are they following? How have energy uses and CO₂ emissions transformed in the last two decades in key Chinese cities? This three-tier analysis illustrates the changes in urban energy uses and CO₂ emissions in China. The results show that the urban contributions make up 84% of China's commercial energy usage. The 35 largest cities in China, which contain 18% of the population, contribute 40% of China's energy uses and CO₂ emissions. In four provincial cities, the per capita energy usage and CO₂ emissions have increased several-fold. Rapid progress was made in reducing the carbon intensity of economic activities in cities throughout the 1990s, but alarmingly, such progress has either slowed down or been reversed in the last few years. These results have important policy implications.     

Methane emissions by Chinese economy: Inventory and embodiment analysis

Concrete inventories for methane emissions and associated embodied emissions in production, consumption, and international trade are presented in this paper for the mainland Chinese economy in 2007 with most recent availability of relevant environmental resources statistics and the input–output table. The total CH₄ emission by Chinese economy 2007 estimated as 39,592.70 Gg is equivalent to three quarters of China's CO₂ emission from fuel combustion by the global thermodynamic potentials, and even by the commonly referred lower IPCC global warming potentials is equivalent to one sixth of China's CO₂ emission from fuel combustion and greater than the CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion of many economically developed countries such as UK, Canada, and Germany. Agricultural activities and coal mining are the dominant direct emission sources, and the sector of Construction holds the top embodied emissions in both production and consumption. The emission embodied in gross capital formation is more than those in other components of final demand characterized by extensive investment and limited consumption. China is a net exporter of embodied CH₄ emissions with the emission embodied in exports of 14,021.80 Gg, in magnitude up to 35.42% of the total direct emission. China's exports of textile products, industrial raw materials, and primary machinery and equipment products have a significant impact on its net embodied emissions of international trade balance. Corresponding policy measures such as agricultural carbon-reduction strategies, coalbed methane recovery, export-oriented and low value added industry adjustment, and low carbon energy polices to methane emission mitigation are addressed.     

Evaluating carbon dioxide emissions in international trade of China

China is the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO₂). As exports account for about one-third of China's GDP, the CO₂ emissions are related to not only China's own consumption but also external demand. Using the input–output analysis (IOA), we analyze the embodied CO₂ emissions of China's import and export. Our results show that about 3357 million tons CO₂ emissions were embodied in the exports and the emissions avoided by imports (EAI) were 2333 million tons in 2005. The average contribution to embodied emission factors by electricity generation was over 35%. And that by cement production was about 20%. It implies that the production-based emissions of China are more than the consumption-based emissions, which is evidence that carbon leakage occurs under the current climate policies and international trade rules. In addition to the call for a new global framework to allocate emission responsibilities, China should make great efforts to improve its energy efficiency, carry out electricity pricing reforms and increase renewable energy. In particular, to use advanced technology in cement production will be helpful to China's CO₂ abatement.     

An integral evaluation of dieselisation policies for households’ cars

Reducing energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in the transport sector is a priority for Great Britain and other European countries as part of their agreements made in the Kyoto protocol and the Voluntary Agreement. To achieve these goals, it has been proposed to increase the market share of diesel vehicles which are more efficient than petrol ones. Based on partial approaches, previous research concluded that increasing the share of diesel vehicles will decrease CO₂ emissions (see 1 and 18; Zervas, 2006). Unlike these approaches, I use an integral approach based on discrete choice models to analyse diesel vehicle penetration in a broader context of transport in Great Britain. I provide for the first time, empirical evidence which is in line with Bonilla's (2009) argument that only improvements in vehicle efficiency will not be enough to achieve their goals of mitigation of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. The model shows the technical limitations that the penetration of diesel vehicles faces and that a combination of improvements in public transportation and taxes on fuel prices is the most effective policy combination to reduce the total amount of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions among the analysed dieselisation polices.     

Global climate change: Implications for thailand's energy systems

An energy/environmental model has been developed to estimate Thailand's energy consumption and CO₂ emissions through the end of the National Tenth Plan (year 2011). The projection suggests that fossil-fuel consumption, not deforestation, will be the major source of emissions during 1990–2011. By the year 2011, energy-efficiency improvement measures could bring about a 14% reduction of CO₂ emissions. Any reduction beyond this level would require switches of fuel mix in the power, transportation, and industrial sectors. Fuel shifts in the power sector alone could cut emissions by up to 20% to 30%. In the longer run, Thailand should consider adopting unconventional sources of energy, as well as make use of reforestation policy to absorb future CO₂ emissions.     

Evaluation of energy saving potential in China's cement industry using the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model and the technology promotion policy analysis

Much of China's cement industry still uses outdated kilns and other inefficient technologies, which are obstacles to improving energy efficiency. Huge improvements in energy consumption intensity can be made by improving this technology. To evaluate the potential for energy-saving and CO₂ emissions reduction in China's cement industry between 2010 and 2020, a model was developed based on the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). Three scenarios (S1, S2 and S3) were developed to describe future technology policy measures in relation to the development of the cement industry. Results show that scenario S3 would realize the potential for CO₂ emissions mitigation of 361.0 million tons, accounting for 25.24% of the predicted emissions, with an additional energy saving potential of 39.0 million tons of coal equivalent by 2020. Technology promotion and industrial structure adjustment are the main measures that can lead to energy savings. Structural adjustment is the most important approach to reduce the CO₂ emissions from the cement industry; the resulting potential for CO₂ emissions reduction will be increasingly large, even exceeding 50% after 2016.     

Good subsidies or bad subsidies? Evidence from low-carbon transition in China's metallurgical industry

Since the metallurgical industry has become the main source of China's carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in recent years, low-carbon transition in that industry is of great significance for achieving China's carbon reduction targets. It is generally believed that phasing out fossil fuel subsidies is an effective way to reduce energy-related CO₂ emissions since it can increase the energy prices and lower its consumption. This paper aims to investigate whether the energy subsidy removal can promote the low-carbon transition of China's metallurgical industry. Taking inter-fuel and inter-factor substitution effects as the link, we calculate the CO₂ mitigation potential on the assumption that the subsidies for each category of fossil energy were eliminated. We find that the metallurgical industry has a sluggish reaction to the changes in energy price. Supposing eliminating the energy subsidies in the period of 2003–2015, the amount of reduced CO₂ would be 487.286 million tons, accounting for a slight proportion of the total emissions in the industry. But it is meaningful for the global CO₂ mitigation since it approximates the whole CO₂ emissions in Norway during the same period. These findings can provide some new insights for the energy subsidy issue and suggest that the additional measures are required to promote the low-carbon transition in China's metallurgical industry rather than just relying on the removal of fossil fuel subsidies.     

Mode selection of China's urban heating and its potential for reducing energy consumption and CO2 emission

China's carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission ranks the highest in the world. CO₂ emission from urban central heating, which has an average annual growth rate of 10.3%, is responsible for 4.4% of China's total CO₂ emission. The current policy for improving urban central heating focuses on replacing coal with natural gas. This paper analyzes the existing situation and problems pertaining to urban heating, and evaluates the potential for reducing energy consumption and CO₂ emission by heat pump heating. The results show that the current policy of replacing coal with natural gas for urban central heating decreases energy consumption and CO₂ emission by 16.6% and 63.5%, respectively. On the other hand, replacing coal-based urban central heating with heat pump heating is capable of decreasing energy consumption and CO₂ emission by 57.6% and 81.4%, respectively. Replacing both urban central and decentralized heating with heat pump heating can lead to 67.7% and 85.8% reduction in energy consumption and CO₂ emission, respectively. The decreases in CO₂ emission will account for 24.5% of China's target to reduce total CO₂ emission by 2020.     

Energy demand and emissions from road transportation vehicles in China

Rapidly growing energy demand and emissions from China's road transportation vehicles in the last two decades have raised concerns over oil security, urban air pollution and global warming. This rapid growth will be likely to continue in the next two to three decades as the vehicle ownership level in China is still very low. The current status of China's road transport sector in terms of vehicles, infrastructure, energy use and emissions is presented. Mitigation measures implemented and those that can reasonably be expected to be adopted in the near future are analysed. Recent studies exploring the future trends of road vehicle energy demand and emissions under various strategies are reviewed. Moreover, those studies which assessed various fuel/propulsion options in China from a life cycle perspective are examined to present an overview of the potential for reducing energy use and emissions. Recommendations for further developments are also made. It is concluded that comprehensive and appropriate strategies will be needed to minimise the adverse impacts of China's road vehicles on energy resources and the environment. Fortunately, China appears to be heading in this direction.     

China's energy and emissions outlook to 2050: Perspectives from bottom-up energy end-use model

Although China became the world's largest CO₂ emitter in 2007, the country has also taken serious actions to reduce its energy and carbon intensity. This study uses the bottom-up LBNL China End-Use Energy Model to assess the role of energy efficiency policies in transitioning China to a lower emission trajectory and meeting its 2020 intensity reduction goals. Two scenarios – Continued Improvement and Accelerated Improvement – were developed to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese government as well as planned and potential actions, and to evaluate the potential for China to reduce energy demand and emissions. This scenario analysis presents an important modeling approach based in the diffusion of end-use technologies and physical drivers of energy demand and thereby help illuminate China's complex and dynamic drivers of energy consumption and implications of energy efficiency policies. The findings suggest that China's CO₂ emissions will not likely continue growing throughout this century because of saturation effects in appliances, residential and commercial floor area, roadways, fertilizer use; and population peak around 2030 with slowing urban population growth. The scenarios also underscore the significant role that policy-driven efficiency improvements will play in meeting 2020 carbon mitigation goals along with a decarbonized power supply.     

Model projections and policy reviews for energy saving in China's service sector

Energy efficiency of buildings in the service sector is becoming increasingly important in China due to the structural shift of the economy from industry to services. This paper employs a bottom-up cohort model to simulate current energy saving policies and to make projections for future energy use and CO₂ emissions for the period 2000–2030 in the Chinese service sector. The analysis shows that energy demand in the service sector will approximately triple in 2030, far beyond the target of quadrupling GDP while only doubling energy use. However, it is feasible to achieve the target of emission reduction by 40% in 2020 even under the poor state of compliance rate of building standard. This paper also highlights four crucial aspects of designing optimal energy saving policies for China's service sector based on the model results.     

Analysis of policies to reduce oil consumption and greenhouse-gas emissions from the US transportation sector

Even as the US debates an economy-wide CO₂ cap-and-trade policy the transportation sector remains a significant oil security and climate change concern. Transportation alone consumes the majority of the US’s imported oil and produces a third of total US Greenhouse-Gas (GHG) emissions. This study examines different sector-specific policy scenarios for reducing GHG emissions and oil consumption in the US transportation sector under economy-wide CO₂ prices. The 2009 version of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), a general equilibrium model of US energy markets, enables quantitative estimates of the impact of economy-wide CO₂ prices and various transportation-specific policy options. We analyze fuel taxes, continued increases in fuel economy standards, and purchase tax credits for new vehicle purchases, as well as the impacts of combining these policies. All policy scenarios modeled fail to meet the Obama administration’s goal of reducing GHG emissions 14% below 2005 levels by 2020. Purchase tax credits are expensive and ineffective at reducing emissions, while the largest reductions in GHG emissions result from increasing the cost of driving, thereby damping growth in vehicle miles traveled.     

Regional development and carbon emissions in China

China announced at the Paris Climate Change Conference in 2015 that the country would reach peak carbon emissions around 2030. Since then, widespread attention has been devoted to determining when and how this goal will be achieved. This study aims to explore the role of China's changing regional development patterns in the achievement of this goal. This study uses the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) to estimate seven socioeconomic drivers of the changes in CO₂ emissions in China since 2000. The results show that China's carbon emissions have plateaued since 2012 mainly because of energy efficiency gains and structural upgrades (i.e., industrial structure, energy mix and regional structure). Regional structure, measured by provincial economic growth shares, has drastically reduced CO₂ emissions since 2012. The effects of these drivers on emissions changes varied across regions due to their different regional development patterns. Industrial structure and energy mix resulted in emissions growth in some regions, but these two drivers led to emissions reduction at the national level. For example, industrial structure reduced China's CO₂ emissions by 1.0% from 2013 to 2016; however, it increased CO₂ emissions in the Northeast and Northwest regions by 1.7% and 0.9%, respectively. Studying China's plateauing CO₂ emissions in the new normal stage at the regional level yields a strong recommendation that China's regions cooperate to improve development patterns.     

Modeling China’s energy dilemma: conflicts among energy saving, energy security, and CO2 mitigation

This study analyzes China’s future energy scenarios stretching until 2050 under different policy portfolios of energy security (e.g., oil import dependency) and CO₂ emissions control. Four scenarios, namely, ① business as usual, ② strong oil import dependency (OID) control, ③ strong CO₂ emissions control, and ④ twofold emphasis on OID and CO₂ emissions control, are designed. The results reveal the existence of conflicts among China’s multiple objectives, particularly energy saving, energy security, and CO₂ mitigation. Based on the analysis, an improvement in China’s efficiency in fossil energy conversion and the promotion of the utilization of non-fossil energy such as nuclear, wind, and hydro energy are recommended. The over-development of coal-derived fuels should also be avoided because of incremental coal consumption and CO₂ emissions. Furthermore, research on and development of carbon capture and storage technologies should be promoted, while the energy efficiency loss caused by integrating these technologies into energy systems should be reduced in view of the high possibility of stricter standards for CO₂ emissions in the future.     

Regional allocation of CO2 emissions allowance over provinces in China by 2020

The mitigation efforts of China are increasingly important for meeting global climate target since the rapid economic growth of China has led to an increasing share in the world's total CO₂ emissions. This paper sets out to explore the approach for realizing China's national mitigation targets submitted to the UNFCCC as part of the Copenhagen Accord; that is, to reduce the intensity of CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% by 2020, as well as reducing the energy intensity and increasing the share of non-fossil fuel consumption, through regional allocation of emission allowance over China's provinces. Since the realization of China's mitigation target essentially represents a total amount emission allowance allocation problem, an improved zero sum gains data envelopment analysis optimization model, which could deal with the constant total amount resources allocation, is proposed in this study. By utilizing this model and based on several scenarios of China's economic growth, CO₂ emissions, and energy consumption, a new efficient emission allowance allocation scheme on provincial level for China by 2020 is proposed. The allocation results indicate that different provinces have to shoulder different mitigation burdens in terms of emission intensity reduction, energy intensity reduction, and share of non-fossil fuels increase.