Multiple timescale analysis and factor analysis of energy ecological footprint growth in China 1953–2006

Scientific analysis of energy consumption and its influencing factors is of great importance for energy strategy and policy planning. The energy consumption in China 1953–2006 is estimated by applying the energy ecological footprint (EEF) method, and the fluctuation periods of annual China's per capita EEF (EEF_cpc) growth rate are analyzed with the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method in this paper. EEF intensity is analyzed to depict energy efficiency in China. The main timescales of the 37 factors that affect the annual growth rate of EEF_cpc are also discussed based on EMD and factor analysis methods. Results show three obvious undulation cycles of the annual growth rate of EEF_cpc, i.e., 4.6, 14.4 and 34.2 years over the last 53 years. The analysis findings from the common synthesized factors of IMF1, IMF2 and IMF3 timescales of the 37 factors suggest that China's energy policy-makers should attach more importance to stabilizing economic growth, optimizing industrial structure, regulating domestic petroleum exploitation and improving transportation efficiency.     

The renewable energy consumption–growth nexus in Central America

This study examines the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth for a panel of six Central American countries over the period 1980–2006. The heterogeneous panel cointegration test reveals a long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP, renewable energy consumption, real gross fixed capital formation, and the labor force with the respective coefficients positive and statistically significant. The results from the panel error correction model indicate bidirectional causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in both the short- and long-run.     

Multi-regional input–output model and ecological network analysis for regional embodied energy accounting in China

Chinese regions frequently exchange materials, but regional differences in economic development create unbalanced flows of these resources. In this study, we examined energy by assessing embodied energy consumption to describe the energy-flow structure in China's seven regions. Based on multi-regional monetary input–output tables and energy statistical yearbooks for Chinese provinces in 2002 and 2007, we accounted for both direct and indirect energy consumption, respectively, and the integral input and output of the provinces. Most integral inputs of energy flowed from north to south or from east to west, whereas integral output flows were mainly from northeast to southwest. This differed from the direct flows, which were predominantly from north to south and west to east. This demonstrates the importance of calculating both direct and indirect energy flows. Analysis of the distance and direction traveled by the energy consumption centers of gravity showed that the centers for embodied energy consumption and inputs moved southeast because of the movements of the centers of the Eastern region. However, the center for outputs moved northeast because the movement of the Central region. These analyses provide a basis for identifying how regional economic development policies influence the embodied energy consumption and its flows among regions.     

Economic analysis of a combined energy–methanol production plant

The large-scale combined production of methanol and electricity from natural gas is simulated and evaluated from an economic point of view. Both capital and operating costs are considered. The proposed solution is based on steam methane reforming and consists of an once-through methanol synthesis followed by a power plant in which the unreacted gases are burned. Electricity is produced in a combined-cycle plant. It is supposed to add the energy production unit to an already existing methanol plant without decreasing the methanol production. The economic analysis shows that, given the low natural gas price in the Saudi Arabia context, the combined production ensures an increased annual revenue that allows a reasonable payout time for the added energy plant.     

From a bundled energy-capacity pricing model to an energy–capacity–ancillary services pricing model

In this paper, we extend the Chilean power generation pricing mechanism, with capacity and energy payments, to one where ancillary services (AS), as frequency regulation and voltage control, are explicitly recognized. Adequacy and security attributes of the electric system and the public good characteristics of AS are set within the payment structure to distribute the financing of AS among those who benefit from their provision. The contribution to finance the provision of AS is determined assessing the value assigned to the system security by each agent, following what's an efficient pricing mechanism in the presence of public goods.     

A literature survey on energy–growth nexus

This paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of energy consumption–economic growth and electricity consumption–economic growth causality nexus. The survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of energy (electricity) in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables. Although the positive role of energy on growth has become a stylized fact, there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies. A general observation from these studies is that the literature produced conflicting results and there is no consensus neither on the existence nor on the direction of causality between energy consumption (electricity consumption) and economic growth. As a policy implication, to avoid from conflicting and unreliable results, the authors may use the autoregressive distributed lags bounds test, two-regime threshold co-integration models, panel data approach and multivariate models including new variables (such as: real gross fixed capital formation, labor force, carbon dioxide emissions, population, exchange rates, interest rates, etc.). Thus, the authors should focus more on the new approaches and perspectives rather than by employing usual methods based on a set of common variables for different countries and different intervals of time.     

Pinch analysis for recycling thermal energy in the Cu–Cl cycle

Due to lower temperature requirements than other thermochemical cycles, the copper-chlorine (Cu–Cl) cycle is one of the most promising cycles for hydrogen production. The cycle consists of a number of endothermic and exothermic processes. The overall efficiency of the cycle can be improved by recovering as much heat as possible from the exothermic processes within the cycle and minimizing the net heat input to the cycle. In this paper, a pinch methodology is used to determine the minimum energy requirement for the overall Cu–Cl cycle, if heat recovery within the cycle is optimized. All heating and cooling flows (actual or potential) are presented as temperature-energy flow profiles and combined into composite curves for the entire cycle. Additional equipment and the overall thermal layout of the cycle are also investigated.     

Consumers’ evaluation of national new energy vehicle policy in China: An analysis based on a four paradigm model

The Chinese government has issued numerous policies to promote the development and adoption of new energy vehicles (NEVs) to address the problem of excessive energy consumption and environmental pollution. In this study we divided these policies into seven categories: macroscopic, demonstration, subsidization, preferential tax, technical support, industry management, and infrastructure. Since consumers’ opinions affect the policy choices of government, based on questionnaire data we use a four paradigm model to analyze the consumers’ evaluation of each policy in terms of perceptions of importance and satisfaction. The results show that macroscopic policies are perceived to be of high importance and satisfaction, whereas for industry management policies they are perceived to be of low importance and satisfaction. The importance perceptions of preferential tax and demonstration policies are low, whereas perceptions of their satisfaction are high. Perceptions of the importance of subsidization, technical support, and infrastructure policies are high, whereas perceptions of their satisfaction are low. We find that the subsidization, technical support, and infrastructure policies need urgent improvement. Finally, we put forward several suggestions to improve the current policies and increase the consumers’ intention to adopt NEVs.     

Unsteady-state fluctuations analysis during bubble growth in a “rectangular” microchannel

Boiling in microchannels shows great potential for cooling systems and compact heat removal applications. However for confidence in this cooling technique, it is essential that any excursions from typical flow boiling are understood and predicted. Confined bubble growth can cause pressure fluctuations which interfere with bubble nucleation and growth and can also lead to flow reversal and instances of temperature excursions. Boiling experiments are performed in a single rectangular microchannel of hydraulic diameter 771 μm, using n-Pentane as the working fluid. A heating technique was incorporated on the exterior walls of the microchannel; a transparent, metallic, conductive deposit, which allows simultaneous uniform heating and visualisation to be achieved. In conjunction with obtaining high-speed imaging, an infrared camera is used to record the temperature profile at the microchannel wall, and sensitive pressure sensors are used to record the pressure drop across the microchannel over time. During flow boiling in the microchannel periodic and non-periodic fluctuations in both the channel pressure drop and channel temperature profile over time are apparent. In this paper we provide a full analysis of the temperature measurements and pressure data obtained during the growth of a vapour bubble in the microchannel. An augmentation of the heat transfer coefficient of over 216% has been achieved during periodic two-phase flow boiling in the microchannel. However overpressure (over 410% increase) in the microchannel occurs at corresponding instances to the heat transfer enhancement. The two time steps during the periodic bubble dynamics, namely the bubble expansion time period and the waiting time period in-between the bubble expansion fluctuations, are also investigated and modelled. It was determined that both the bubble dynamics and the channel wall heating time period are responsible for the pressure and temperature fluctuation time periods observed.     

A novel analysis model of China’s new energy talents

Sustainable development of the new energy industry requires continuous input from professional talents. The new energy industry will continue to grow in importance, and the characteristics of the necessary cross-discipline talents that will promote its development are becoming more and more defined. This article puts forward an analysis model starting with the addition of talents carriers subdivided by specialties, and takes this subdivision as a starting point with the purpose of maximizing talents selection throughout the entire nation. First of all, we define each talent as a specific vector. Then a clustering algorithm is used to perform an analysis and the new energy talents database is created. Finally, we use an algorithm based on graph theory and discrete mathematics to calculate the essential value of the talents vector. This value provides a measurement of the importance of the talents. The current talents structure is analyzed in order to clarify understanding of the present situation so as to enable informed planning of targeted training needs and structural adjustments, thus meeting the sustainable development requirements for the new energy industry in China.     

An exergy–cost–energy–mass analysis of a hybrid copper–chlorine thermochemical cycle for hydrogen production

An exergoeconomic assessment using exergy–cost–energy–mass (EXCEM) analysis is reported of a copper–chlorine (Cu–Cl) thermochemical water splitting cycle for hydrogen production. The quantitative relation is identified between capital costs and thermodynamic losses for devices in the cycle. A correlation detected in previous assessments, suggesting that devices in energy systems are configured so as to achieve an overall optimal design by appropriately balancing thermodynamic (exergy-based) and economic characteristics of the overall system and its components, is observed to apply for the Cu–Cl cycle. Exergetic cost allocations and various exergoeconomic performance parameters are determined for the overall cycle and its components. The results are expected to assist ongoing efforts to increase the economic viability and to reduce product costs of potential commercial versions of this process. The impacts of these results are anticipated to be significant since thermochemical water splitting with a copper–chlorine cycle is a promising process that could be linked with nuclear reactors to produce hydrogen with no greenhouse gases emissions, and thereby help mitigate numerous energy and environment concerns.     

Towards a sustainable energy scenario? A worldwide analysis

This paper studies the worldwide evolution of energy intensity for a large sample of countries during the period 1990–2015, differentiating between non-renewable, non-clean and total energy intensity. This division allows us to establish more precise policy recommendations which, along with the use of the Phillips and Sul (2009) methodology, provides the novelty of the analysis. Our results refute recent evidence favouring the hypothesis of global convergence for all types of energy intensity. Grouping countries either by regions or by income level, the evidence against this hypothesis remains overwhelming, with very few exceptions. Nonetheless, we can observe the presence of several convergence clubs, whose creation strongly depends on energy prices as well as on external energetic dependency. In any event, results relating to the different types of energy intensity are varied, suggesting that previous policy recommendations aimed at tackling climate change based on total energy intensity analyses are questionable.     

Building energy index and end-use energy analysis in large-scale hospitals—case study in Malaysia

Hospital energy consumption is relatively high, while saving energy and reducing cost comprise one of the most important challenges considered by the majority of building designers, engineers, and decision makers. An end-use energy analysis was conducted in a large-scale hospital in Malaysia to identify energy apportioning and energy end use in the areas of air conditioning, lifts, lighting, equipment, and others. The analysis was carried out by assessing the collected desktop and field data as well as some calculations. The Building Energy Index (BEI) was calculated to compare the consumption levels in the selected hospital, which is a typical hospital building, with other hospitals in Malaysia as well as low energy buildings and Malaysian standards. The main energy source in this case study was electricity with a supply of around 75 % of total energy consumption. The current average annual electricity consumed by this hospital was 44,637,966 kWh, out of which 63 % was used by air conditioning systems and 17 % by lighting. The BEI comparison revealed that the calculated BEI of 384 kWh/m²/year is significantly higher than Malaysian rating systems and standards which recommend 200 kWh/m²/year for hospitals, 135 kWh/m²/year for commercial sectors, and is higher than previously observed hospitals with a BEI of less than 300 kWh/m²/year.     

Analysing energy intensity trends and decoupling of growth from energy use in Indian manufacturing industries during 1973–1974 to 2011–2012

This paper has two research objectives: first, it derives and analyses energy intensity trends for seven energy intensive manufacturing industries and the aggregate manufacturing sector in India for the period 1973–1974 to 2011–2012 and compares the same with best practice benchmarks. Second, based on Index Decomposition Analysis, it studies the extent to which the energy efficiency has contributed in the decoupling of industrial activity growth from growth in energy use. The study finds faster decline in energy intensity in all the seven industries during the recent years (1998–1999 to 2011–2012). Aluminium, cement and fertilizer industries are found to operate close to the global best-practice energy intensities with transformational changes in process technology. Iron and steel and pulp and paper are found to be lagging behind with only incremental transformation in technology in place. The decomposition results show that activity growth is the major driver of growth in energy demand with marginal impact coming from structural change. However, declining energy intensity has been able to neutralize a major portion of the growing energy demand resulting in decoupling trends, especially in recent years, with more energy efficiency-related voluntary and mandatory policies in place).     

Benefit–cost analysis of non-marginal climate and energy projects

Conventional benefit–cost analysis incorporates the normally reasonable assumption that the policy or project under examination is marginal. Among the assumptions this entails is that the policy or project is small, so the underlying growth rate of the economy does not change. However, this assumption may be inappropriate in some important circumstances, including in climate-change and energy policy. One example is global targets for carbon emissions, while another is a large renewable energy project in a small economy, such as a hydropower dam. This paper develops some theory on the evaluation of non-marginal projects, with empirical applications to climate change and energy. We examine the conditions under which evaluation of a non-marginal project using marginal methods may be wrong, and in our empirical examples we show that both qualitative and large quantitative errors are plausible.     

Replication and robustness analysis of ‘energy and economic growth in the USA: A multivariate approach’

We replicate Stern (1993), who argues and empirically demonstrates that it is necessary (i) to use quality-adjusted energy use and (ii) to include capital and labor as control variables in order to find Granger causality from energy use to GDP. Though we could not access the original dataset, we can verify the main original inferences using data that are as close as possible to the original. We analyze the robustness of the original findings to an alternative estimation approach, alternative definitions of variables, and alternative model specifications for both the (almost) original time span (1949–1990) and an extended time span (1949–2015). p-values tend to be substantially smaller if energy use is quality adjusted rather than measured by total joules and if capital is included. Including labor has mixed results. These findings tend to largely support Stern's (1993) two main conclusions and emphasize the importance of accounting for changes in the energy mix in time series modeling of the energy-GDP relationship and controlling for other factors of production. We also discuss how the inclusion of the original author in designing the replication study using a pre-analysis plan can help to counterbalance the incentive of replicating authors to disconfirm major findings of the original article to increase the probability of getting published.     

Comprehensive evaluation of household indirect energy consumption and impacts of alternative energy policies in China by input–output analysis

Households consume a large amount of indirect energy through the consumption of goods and services. This fact makes the quantitative analysis of indirect household energy consumption the foundation of energy policy design. This paper improves the compilation method of energy input–output tables, and establishes a sequence of energy input–output tables for China. Based on these tables, the indirect energy consumption of both rural and urban households is calculated. Then, with economic data for the year of 2005, the adjusted input–output price model is applied to evaluate how the alternative energy policies impact production prices, consumption prices, and real income of rural and urban households through the mechanism of indirect energy consumption by using electricity as an example. This research has practical implications for Chinese economy. The integration of energy-efficiency improvements and energy prices increase serves as a means to achieve both economic and energy conservation goals, and may also have a positive effect on residents’ real income and a minimal effect on production prices.     

Energy embodied in the international trade of China: An energy input–output analysis

Growing international trade has not only positively affected the People’s Republic of China’s (China’s) economic development, but also expanded the exportation of energy embodied in goods during their production. This energy flow out will pose risks to China’s rational utilization of natural resources as well as environmental protection. In this paper, we evaluate the energy embodied in goods produced in China during 1992–2005 and use input–output structural decomposition analysis to identify five key factors causing the changes of energy embodied in exports. (Direct primary energy efficiency, primary energy consumption structure, structure of intermediate inputs, structure of exports, and scale of exports.) For the three sub-periods of 1992–1997, 1997–2002, and 2002–2005, results show that China is a net exporter of energy, and the energy embodied in exports tends to increase over time. The expanding total volume of exports and increasing exports of energy-intensive goods tend to enlarge the energy embodied in exports within all three sub-periods, but these driving forces were offset by a considerable improvement of energy efficiency and changes in primary energy consumption structure from 1992 to 2002 and the effects of structure of intermediate input only in the sub-period from 1992 to 1997. From 2002 to 2005, the sharp augmentation of energy embodied in exports was driven by all the five factors. Our research has practical implications for the Chinese economy. Results of this study suggest that the energy embodied in trade should receive special attentions in energy policies design to limit the energy resource out-flow and pollution generation.