Factors influencing CO2 emissions in China's power industry: Co-integration analysis

More than 40% of China's total CO₂ emissions originate from the power industry. The realization of energy saving and emission reduction within China's power industry is therefore crucial in order to achieve CO₂ emissions reduction in this country. This paper applies the autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) co-integration model to study the major factors which have influenced CO₂ emissions within China's power industry from 1980 to 2010. Results have shown that CO₂ emissions from China's power industry have been increasing rapidly. From 1980 to 2010, the average annual growth rate was 8.5%, and the average growth rate since 2002 has amounted to 10.5%. Secondly, the equipment utilization hour (as an indicator of the power demand) has the greatest influence on CO₂ emissions within China's power industry. In addition, the impact of the industrial added value of the power sector on CO₂ emissions is also positive from a short-term perspective. Thirdly, the Granger causality results imply that one of the important motivators behind China's technological progress, within the power industry, originates from the pressures created by a desire for CO₂ emissions reduction. Finally, this paper provides policy recommendations for energy saving and emission reduction for China's power industry.     

Changes in carbon intensity in China's industrial sector: Decomposition and attribution analysis

The industrial sector accounts for 70% of the total energy-related CO₂ emissions in China. To gain a better understanding of the changes in carbon intensity in China's industrial sector, this study first utilized logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis to disentangle the carbon intensity into three influencing factors, including the emission coefficient effect, the energy intensity effect, and the structure effect. Then, the analysis was furthered to explore the contributions of individual industrial sub-sectors to each factor by using an extension of the decomposition method proposed in Choi and Ang (2012). The results indicate that from 1996 to 2012, the energy intensity effect was the dominant factor in reducing carbon intensity, of which chemicals, iron and steel, metal and machinery, and cement and ceramics were the most representative sub-sectors. The structure effect did not show a strong impact on carbon intensity. The emission coefficient effect gradually increased the carbon intensity, mainly due to the expansion of electricity consumption, particularly in the metal and machinery and chemicals sub-sectors. The findings suggest that differentiated policies and measures should be considered for various industrial sub-sectors to maximize the energy efficiency potential. Moreover, readjusting the industrial structure and promoting clean and renewable energy is also urgently required to further reduce carbon intensity in China's industrial sector.     

Analysis and forecast of the Tianjin industrial carbon dioxide emissions resulted from energy consumption

This paper analyses the carbon dioxide emissions caused by industrial energy consumption of Tianjin from 2005 to 2012. The carbon emissions decomposition illustrated that the scale of production factor played a major role in the growth of Tianjin industrial carbon emissions and the average contribution of carbon emissions is up to 220.8975% in the statistical period; the intensity of energy factor played an important role in slowing down the growth of industrial carbon dioxide emissions. The average contribution of carbon emissions was ?136.1994% in the statistical period. The prediction model based on carbon emissions data from industrial energy consumption from 2003 to 2012 reached a high accuracy, with an average error of 1.78% for stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model, 2.41% for the Logistic regression model and an average error of 1.54% for the grey model. This research can contribute to predict the carbon emission and through it some suggestions can be made.     

我国二氧化碳排放的特点、趋势及政策取向

改革开放以来。我国二氧化碳排放总量从1978年的148329×10^4t增加到2008年的689654×10^4t．年均增长5．3％。与此同时,二氧化碳排放强度总体上呈较快下降趋势,但1999年以后下降速度放缓。我国二氧化碳排放强度明显高于国际水平。分析其原因,从需求结构看是经济增长过度依赖出口：从产业结构看是由于过度依赖工业,尤其是重化工业：而以煤为主的能源资源结构和能源生产结构,直接导致我国单位能源使用排放的二氧化碳高于其他国家。我国2015年二氧化碳排放量预测值在82．28×10^8-90．508×10^8t之间,减排形势不容乐观。由于我国还处在工业化、城镇化加快发展阶段,在以煤为主的特定资源禀赋条件下,减缓二氧化碳排放的主要路径是减少能源消费,即节能。节能的主要着力点在于充分发挥政府和市场的作用,加快提高能源技术效率,包括深化能源产品定价机制改革;加强政府的社会性管制,使环境社会成本充分内部化;建立绿色税收体系,支持低碳经济发展;培育碳排放交易市场。     

Using LMDI method to analyze the change of China's industrial CO2 emissions from final fuel use: An empirical analysis

Based on time series decomposition of the Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), this paper analyzes the change of industrial carbon emissions from 36 industrial sectors in China over the period 1998–2005. The changes of industrial CO₂ emission are decomposed into carbon emissions coefficients of heat and electricity, energy intensity, industrial structural shift, industrial activity and final fuel shift. Our results clearly show that raw chemical materials and chemical products, nonmetal mineral products and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals account for 59.31% of total increased industrial CO₂ emissions. The overwhelming contributors to the change of China's industrial sectors’ carbon emissions in the period 1998–2005 were the industrial activity and energy intensity; the impact of emission coefficients of heat and electricity, fuel shift and structural shift was relatively small. Over the year 1998–2002, the energy intensity change in some energy-intensive sectors decreased industrial emissions, but increased emissions over the period 2002–2005. The impact of structural shift on emissions have varied considerably over the years without showing any clear trend, and the final fuel shift increased industrial emissions because of the increase of electricity share and higher emissions coefficient. Therefore, raw chemical materials and chemical products, nonmetal mineral products and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals should be among the top priorities for enhancing energy efficiency and driving their energy intensity close to the international advanced level. To some degree, we should reduce the products waste of these sectors, mitigate the growth of demand for their products through avoiding the excessive investment highly related to these sectors, increasing imports or decreasing the export in order to avoid expanding their share in total industrial value added. However, all these should integrate economic growth to harmonize industrial development and CO₂ emission reduction.     

Evaluating carbon dioxide emissions in international trade of China

China is the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO₂). As exports account for about one-third of China's GDP, the CO₂ emissions are related to not only China's own consumption but also external demand. Using the input–output analysis (IOA), we analyze the embodied CO₂ emissions of China's import and export. Our results show that about 3357 million tons CO₂ emissions were embodied in the exports and the emissions avoided by imports (EAI) were 2333 million tons in 2005. The average contribution to embodied emission factors by electricity generation was over 35%. And that by cement production was about 20%. It implies that the production-based emissions of China are more than the consumption-based emissions, which is evidence that carbon leakage occurs under the current climate policies and international trade rules. In addition to the call for a new global framework to allocate emission responsibilities, China should make great efforts to improve its energy efficiency, carry out electricity pricing reforms and increase renewable energy. In particular, to use advanced technology in cement production will be helpful to China's CO₂ abatement.     

Exploring the impacts of a carbon tax on the Chinese economy using a CGE model with a detailed disaggregation of energy sectors

This paper applies a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the impacts of a carbon tax on China's economy and carbon emissions based on China's 2010 Input–Output Table. To obtain robust simulation results, we further disaggregate the energy sectors into eight departments according to energy use characteristics. The empirical results indicate that a moderate carbon tax would significantly reduce carbon emissions and fossil fuel energy consumption and slightly reduce the pace of economic growth. However, a large carbon tax has a significantly negative impact on China's economy and social welfare. Moreover, a large carbon tax would entail marked price changes in China. Of the fossil fuels in use, reducing coal consumption would have the greatest impact on reducing carbon emissions, and the ad valorem duty rate for coal would be the highest after levying a carbon tax because it has the highest carbon emission coefficient. Therefore, China should strive to promote clean coal technology, which may be crucial to reducing carbon emissions. Moreover, levying a carbon tax would improve the use of clean energy, which would be an effective means of reducing carbon emissions. Therefore, the Chinese government should formulate the regulations for and pass a carbon tax as early as possible to achieve its carbon emission abatement target and further contribute to mitigating climate change.     

中国能源消费碳排放变化的影响因素分析——基于投入产出模型

从产业关联的角度出发,采用结构分解分析法(SDA)给出了中国能源消费碳排放的投入产出分析模型.基于投入产出模型,利用1997年、2002年、2005年、2007年的投入产出数据和能源消费数据,依据政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)给出的二氧化碳排放量的计算公式计算了各产业部门的碳排放量,并进而计算了各部门的直接碳排放强度,然后依据结构分解方法对中国能源消费碳排放的影响因素进行了详细的分解分析.研究结果发现:碳排放强度在1997 ～ 2002年和2005～2007年均有大幅度的降低,而在2002～2005年却有一个小幅上升.反映能源使用效率的部门直接碳排放强度系数和反映生产技术的完全需求系数是我国碳排放强度变化的两个最主要的影响因素.建议各行业各部门要用高新技术和先进适用技术改造和提升传统产业,加大投资结构调整力度,坚决淘汰落后产能,切实抑制低水平重复建设和高耗能产业的扩张,逐步加大对环保产业、新能源产业和高新技术产业的投资倾斜.     

Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from China's cities: Case study of Suzhou

Knowledge of the factors driving greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cities is crucial to mitigating China's anthropogenic emissions. In this paper, the main drivers increasing GHG emissions from the Chinese city of Suzhou between 2005 and 2010 were identified and quantitatively analyzed using the Kaya identity and the log-mean Divisia index method. We found that economy and population were the major drivers of GHG emissions in Suzhou, having contributed 162.20% and 109.04%, respectively, to the increase in emissions. A decline in carbon intensity, which was caused by the declining energy intensity and an adjustment to the mixture of power and industrial structures, was the major determinant and accounted for a reduction of 171.24% in GHG emissions. Slowing and maintaining healthy growth rates of economy and population could be the primary and most effective means if Suzhou tries to curb the total emissions over the short term. It may be more realistic for Suzhou to control emissions by optimizing the economic structure for low-carbon industrial development because of the city's relative high energy requirements and low potential to mitigate GHGs by adjusting the energy mixture.     

Good subsidies or bad subsidies? Evidence from low-carbon transition in China's metallurgical industry

Since the metallurgical industry has become the main source of China's carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in recent years, low-carbon transition in that industry is of great significance for achieving China's carbon reduction targets. It is generally believed that phasing out fossil fuel subsidies is an effective way to reduce energy-related CO₂ emissions since it can increase the energy prices and lower its consumption. This paper aims to investigate whether the energy subsidy removal can promote the low-carbon transition of China's metallurgical industry. Taking inter-fuel and inter-factor substitution effects as the link, we calculate the CO₂ mitigation potential on the assumption that the subsidies for each category of fossil energy were eliminated. We find that the metallurgical industry has a sluggish reaction to the changes in energy price. Supposing eliminating the energy subsidies in the period of 2003–2015, the amount of reduced CO₂ would be 487.286 million tons, accounting for a slight proportion of the total emissions in the industry. But it is meaningful for the global CO₂ mitigation since it approximates the whole CO₂ emissions in Norway during the same period. These findings can provide some new insights for the energy subsidy issue and suggest that the additional measures are required to promote the low-carbon transition in China's metallurgical industry rather than just relying on the removal of fossil fuel subsidies.     

Temporal changes in China's production and consumption-based CO2 emissions and the factors contributing to changes

As the largest carbon emitter in the world, China is actively promoting carbon emission reduction and low-carbon sustainable development. To better formulate low-carbon transformation measures, we calculated and compared China's production-based carbon emissions (PD-CEs) and consumption-based carbon emissions (CD-CEs) from 2000 to 2014 based on the Multi-Regional Input–Output tables. We also performed a structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to investigate the factors contributing to changes in China's PD-CEs and CD-CEs. The study's findings are as follows: First, China's PD-CEs are continually larger than its CD-CEs, such that China is a net exporter of emissions. However, China's exported emissions and net exported emissions peaked at 2200 and 1786 Mt., respectively, as of 2007. In 2014, China's net exported emissions were 1371 Mt., down 23.25% compared with 2007. Second, China's PD-CEs mainly serve the domestic final demand, and China's CD-CEs are mainly emitted at home. Production and supply of electric power, steam and hot water is the biggest contributor to China's PD-CEs while Construction the largest contributor to China's CD-CEs. Third, the SDA results show that China's PD-CEs and CD-CEs mainly grew due to changes in China's final demand volume. The significant restraint to the growth of China's PD-CEs and CD-CEs is the effect of changes in the domestic emission intensity. Changes in China's ties with other economies have an important impact on China's carbon emissions. Developing economies are replacing developed economies as major destinations for China's emissions export. Fourth, the growth rate of China's PD-CEs and CD-CEs significantly slowed down and the factors contributing to the changes in China's PD-CEs and PD-CEs have changed after China's economy entered the new normal.     

Evaluation of energy saving potential in China's cement industry using the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model and the technology promotion policy analysis

Much of China's cement industry still uses outdated kilns and other inefficient technologies, which are obstacles to improving energy efficiency. Huge improvements in energy consumption intensity can be made by improving this technology. To evaluate the potential for energy-saving and CO₂ emissions reduction in China's cement industry between 2010 and 2020, a model was developed based on the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). Three scenarios (S1, S2 and S3) were developed to describe future technology policy measures in relation to the development of the cement industry. Results show that scenario S3 would realize the potential for CO₂ emissions mitigation of 361.0 million tons, accounting for 25.24% of the predicted emissions, with an additional energy saving potential of 39.0 million tons of coal equivalent by 2020. Technology promotion and industrial structure adjustment are the main measures that can lead to energy savings. Structural adjustment is the most important approach to reduce the CO₂ emissions from the cement industry; the resulting potential for CO₂ emissions reduction will be increasingly large, even exceeding 50% after 2016.     

Energy and CO2 emissions performance in China's regional economies: Do market-oriented reforms matter?

This paper employs a newly developed non-radial directional distance function to evaluate China's regional energy and CO₂ emission performance for the period 1997–2009. Moreover, we analyze the impact of China's market-oriented reform on China's regional energy and carbon efficiency. The main findings are as follows. First, most of China's regions did not perform efficiently in energy use and CO₂ emissions. Provinces in the east area generally performed better than those in the central and west areas. By contrast, provinces in the west area generally evidenced the lowest efficiency. Second, Market-oriented reforms, especially the promotion of factor market, were found to have positive effect on the efficiency of energy use and CO₂ emissions. Third, the share of coal in the total energy consumption and the expansion of the industrial sector were found to be negatively correlated with China's regional energy and CO₂ emissions performance. Based on the empirical findings, we provide policy suggestions for enhancing energy and carbon efficiency in China.     

Estimation,characteristics, and determinants of energy-related industrial CO2 emissions in Shanghai (China), 1994–2009

This paper estimates energy-related industrial CO₂ emissions (ICE) in Shanghai from 1994 to 2009 and summarizes ICE's characteristics. The results show that the coal-type consumption is the ICE's largest source of the entire industry and that the energy consumption structure of CO₂ emissions of the entire industry depends largely on that of six sub-sectors of high emission group, which contributes to most of ICE. Furthermore, the paper implements an econometric study on the ICE's determinants based on the ICE-STIRPAT model. The results indicate that the relationship between ICE and per capita output presents an inverted N-shaped curve with two turning points, resulting from the comprehensive influence of scale, composition, and technique effects, and that most sub-sectors remain in the second stage of the curve. Energy efficiency exerts a more efficient control over ICE than R&D intensity. ICE intensity is regulated more easily than ICE scale. In the long run, industrial growth and coal-type consumption play the most important roles in driving ICE, whereas energy efficiency exerts the most prominent effect on reducing it. The results of the robustness analysis indicate that the utilization of the ICE-STIRPAT model is valid and robust under the setting of environment impact control over ICE in Shanghai.     

Driving factors behind carbon dioxide emissions in China: A modified production-theoretical decomposition analysis

Research on the driving factors behind carbon dioxide emission changes in China can inform better carbon emission reduction policies and help develop a low-carbon economy. As one of important methods, production-theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA) has been widely used to understand these driving factors. To avoid the infeasibility issue in solving the linear programming, this study proposed a modified PDA approach to decompose carbon dioxide emission changes into seven drivers. Using 2005–2010 data, the study found that economic development was the largest factor of increasing carbon dioxide emissions. The second factor was energy structure (reflecting potential carbon), and the third factor was low energy efficiency. Technological advances, energy intensity reductions, and carbon dioxide emission efficiency improvements were the negative driving factors reducing carbon dioxide emission growth rates. Carbon dioxide emissions and driving factors varied significantly across east, central and west China.     

Study on China's low carbon development in an Economy–Energy–Electricity–Environment framework

Emissions mitigation is a major challenge for China's sustainable development. We summarize China's successful experiences on energy efficiency in past 30 years as the contributions of Energy Usage Management and Integrated Resource Strategic Planning, which are essential for low-carbon economy. In an Economy–Energy–Electricity–Environment (E4) framework, the paper studies the low-carbon development of China and gives an outlook of China's economy growth, energy–electricity demand, renewable power generation and energy conservation and emissions mitigation until 2030. A business-as-usual scenario is projected as baseline for comparison while low carbon energy and electricity development path is studied. It is defined as low carbon energy/electricity when an economy body manages to realize its potential economic growth fueled by less energy/electricity consumption, which can be characterized by indexes of energy/electricity intensity and emissions per-unit of energy consumption (electricity generation). Results show that, with EUM, China, could save energy by 4.38 billion ton oil equivalences (toes) and reduce CO₂ emission by 16.55 billion tons; with IRSP, China, could save energy by 1.5 Btoes and reduce CO₂ emission by 5.7 Btons, during 2010–2030. To realize the massive potential, China has to reshape its economic structure and rely much on technology innovation in the future.     

山东省能源消费CO2排放及驱动因素分析

基于IPCC提出的温室气体排放计算公式,利用1990～2009年山东省能源消费数据,测算了CO2排放量,并结合经济和人口数据,采用LMDI因素分解法分析了能源强度、能源结构、人口规模和人均GDP对CO2排放的影响。结果表明,CO2排放主要来源于火力发电和供热及第二产业,经济水平与人口规模表现为正效应,能源强度与能源结构表现为负效应,由此提出了山东省现阶段的减排建议。     

广东省主体功能区碳排放特征及驱动因素研究

基于不同类型主体功能区的发展定位与碳排放驱动要素分解,提出有针对性的区域差异化低碳发展路径是推进主体功能区可持续发展的重要内容。基于调研资料,分析了广东省各主体功能区自2010年以来的碳排放演变特征,从人口效应、经济效应、能源强度效应、产业结构效应以及碳排放因子效应五个因素对造成不同主体功能区碳排放差异的原因进行了分析。要素分解发现,经济规模和人口数量增长对优化开发区碳排放量增长的贡献率最大;产业结构的优化从2012年开始成为使优化开发区碳排放量降低的影响因素,对重点开发区和生态发展区碳排放量降低的作用仍不明显;产业能源强度变动均使三类功能区碳排放量降低,但是贡献率呈现明显差异。建议：（1）加快发展优化开发区服务业,积极推动实施居民碳排放管理;（2）重点开发区应以提高能效和推进低碳技术为主实施低碳转型;（3）生态发展区要大力推广清洁能源,促使农业低碳化发展。     

Can carbon emission trading scheme achieve energy conservation and emission reduction? Evidence from the industrial sector in China

Whether the emission trading scheme (ETS) can achieve energy conservation and emission reduction in developing countries is crucial for these countries to achieve sustainable economic and environmental development. This study investigates the energy conservation and emission reduction effects of China's carbon dioxide (CO₂) ETS pilot policy implemented in 2011. Based on panel data of the two-digit industry at province level from 2005 to 2015, we adopt the difference-in-differences (DID) model to examine the effects of the CO₂ ETS on energy conservation and emission reduction. The results show that the CO₂ ETS decreases the energy consumption of the regulated industries in pilot areas by 22.8% and the CO₂ emissions by 15.5% compared to those in nonpilot areas. Further analysis indicates that the policy effects are mainly driven by improving technical efficiency and adjusting industrial structure. In addition, we find that the CO₂ ETS performs better in areas with high levels of environmental enforcement and marketization. Overall, our findings suggest that the CO₂ ETS has achieved energy conservation and emission reduction effects in developing countries.     

Path towards achieving of China's 2020 carbon emission reduction target—A discussion of low-carbon energy policies at province level

Following the announcement of the China's 2020 national target for the reduction of the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% compared with 2005 levels, Chinese provincial governments prepared to restructure provincial energy policy and plan their contribution to realizing the State reduction target.