Postpartum body condition score and results from the first test day milk as predictors of disease, fertility, yield, and culling in commercial dairy herds

The study used field data from a regular herd health service to investigate the relationships between body condition scores or first test day milk data and disease incidence, milk yield, fertility, and culling. Path model analysis with adjustment for time at risk was applied to delineate the time sequence of events. Milk fever occurred more often in fat cows, and endometritis occurred between calving and 20 d of lactation more often in thin cows. Fat cows were less likely to conceive at first service than were cows in normal condition. Fat body condition postpartum, higher first test day milk yield, and a fat to protein ratio of > 1.5 increased body condition loss. Fat or thin condition or condition loss was not related to other lactation diseases, fertility parameters, milk yield, or culling. First test day milk yield was 1.3 kg higher after milk fever and was 7.1 kg lower after displaced abomasum. Higher first test day milk yield directly increased the risk of ovarian cyst and lameness, increased 100-d milk yield, and reduced the risk of culling and indirectly decreased reproductive performance. Cows with a fat to protein ratio of > 1.5 had higher risks for ketosis, displaced abomasum, ovarian cyst, lameness, and mastitis. Those cows produced more milk but showed poor reproductive performance. Given this type of herd health data, we concluded that the first test day milk yield and the fat to protein ratio were more reliable indicators of disease, fertility, and milk yield than was body condition score or loss of body condition score.     

Estimating US dairy clinical disease costs with a stochastic simulation model

A farm-level stochastic model was used to estimate costs of 7 common clinical diseases in the United States: mastitis, lameness, metritis, retained placenta, left-displaced abomasum, ketosis, and hypocalcemia. The total disease costs were divided into 7 categories: veterinary and treatment, producer labor, milk loss, discarded milk, culling cost, extended days open, and on-farm death. A Monte Carlo simulation with 5,000 iterations was applied to the model to account for inherent system variation. Four types of market prices (milk, feed, slaughter, and replacement cow) and 3 herd-performance factors (rolling herd average, product of heat detection rate and conception rate, and age at first calving) were modeled stochastically. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to study the relationship between total disease costs and selected stochastic factors. In general, the disease costs in multiparous cows were greater than in primiparous cows. Left-displaced abomasum had the greatest estimated total costs in all parities ($432.48 in primiparous cows and $639.51 in multiparous cows). Cost category contributions varied for different diseases and parities. Milk production loss and treatment cost were the 2 greatest cost categories. The effect of market prices were consistent in all diseases and parities; higher milk and replacement prices increased total costs, whereas greater feed and slaughter prices decreased disease costs.     

A stochastic model simulating pathogen-specific mastitis control in a dairy herd

The objective of this study was to develop a model simulating mastitis control in dairy herds and to investigate how sensitive the model is when varying the effect parameters according to the uncertainty. The model simulates 9 pathogen-specific mastitis types, each of which can be subclinical or clinical. The clinical cases can be 1 of 4 severities defined according to the effect of the mastitis case: mild, moderate, severe, and permanent effect. The risk factors include lactation stage, parity, yield level, previous diseases, season, and contagious spread of the infection from herd mates. Occurrence of mastitis is modeled to have direct effects on feed intake, body weight, milk yield, somatic cell count in the milk, subsequent mastitis cases within the cow and in herd mates, voluntary and involuntary culling, mortality, and milk withdrawal. Thirty-five scenarios were simulated to study model behavior and model sensitivity. The consequences per cow/yr of mastitis in the default simulated herd included 0.42 clinical mastitis occurrences, 0.56 subclinical mastitis occurrences, loss of 385-kg milk yield, a 1.3% reduced feed intake, 61-kg milk withdrawal and €146 in reduced economic net return. Based on scenarios demonstrating model behavior and sensitivity analysis, the model appears to produce valid consequences of mastitis control strategies. Representation of the effect of subclinical mastitis and of variation in mastitis severity was concluded in this study to be important when modeling mastitis economics in a dairy herd. The model offers the opportunity to study the long-term herd specific effects of a wide range of control strategies against mastitis.     

Effects of milk fever, ketosis, and lameness on milk yield in dairy cows

The effects of milk fever, ketosis, and lameness were studied using data from 23,416 Finnish Ayrshire cows that calved in 1993 and were followed for one lactation (i.e., until culling or the next calving). Monthly test day milk yields were treated as repeated measurements within a cow in a mixed model analysis. Disease index variables were created to relate the timing of a disease to the measures of test day milk. Statistical models for each parity and disease included fixed effects of calving season, stage of lactation, and disease index. An autoregressive correlation structure was used to model the association among the repeated measurements. The milk yield of cows contracting milk fever was affected for a period of 4 to 6 wk after calving; the loss ranged from 1.1 to 2.9 kg/d, depending on parity and the time elapsed after milk fever diagnosis. Despite the loss, cows with milk fever produced 1.1 to 1.7 kg more milk/d than did healthy cows. Milk yield started to decline 2 to 4 wk before the diagnosis of ketosis and continued to decline for a varying time period after it. The daily milk loss was greatest within the 2 wk after the diagnosis, varying from 3.0 to 5.3 kg/d, depending on parity. Cows in parity 4 or higher were most severely affected by ketosis; the average total loss per cow was 353.4 kg. Lameness also affected milk yield; milk loss of cows diagnosed with foot and leg disorders varied between 1.5 and 2.8 kg/d during the first 2 wk after the diagnosis.     

Mastitis, ketosis, and milk fever in 31 organic and 93 conventional Norwegian dairy herds

The aim of this study was to investigate differences in disease incidence between organic and conventional herds. The study was based on data from the Norwegian Dairy Herd Recording, which includes the Norwegian Cattle Health Recording System. All herds certified for organic farming in 1994 with a herd size of more than five cow-years were included. Conventional herds were matched on size and region, and from these, three herds were randomly selected for each organic herd. This resulted in a study group of 31 organic and 93 conventional herds with data from 1994 through 1997. The study unit was the cow within a lactation. Factors influencing disease incidence were studied by means of a generalized linear model approach. Management system had a highly significant effect on disease incidence. Odds ratios for organic compared with conventional herds were as follows: mastitis, 0.38; ketosis, 0.33; and milk fever, 0.60. Other significant factors that emerged in modeling the three diseases were year and lactation category for mastitis; lactation category, maximum milk yield, and season for ketosis; and lactation category and milk yield for milk fever. There was no marked difference in milk somatic cell count (SCC) between organic and conventional herds. However, cows in organic herds had lower SCC in lactation two and greater counts in lactations six and higher.     

A spreadsheet-based model demonstrating the nonuniform economic effects of varying reproductive performance in Ohio dairy herds

A spreadsheet-based model was developed to estimate the economic effect of varying reproductive performance in dairy herds. Scenarios were created to model an average cow with respect to production, herd lifetime, and reproductive events. Average milk yield per day of life as well as lifetime calf and replacement heifer production were examined. Additional inputs representing milk, feed, semen, calf, and salvage prices were used to calculate net cash flow for each day of herd life for the average cow in a scenario. Economic comparison of different scenarios was accomplished using an equivalent annual cash flow (annuity) methodology.Herd performance measures and prices representative of Ohio dairy herds were used to establish a baseline average cow that had a 160-d calving-to-conception interval [days open (DO)]. Alternative scenarios that differed from baseline in DO, annual culling rate, and feed and milk prices were created to characterize the effects of changes. Under scenario inputs representative of typical Ohio dairy herds, the model indicated that a lower annual culling rate (25%) was preferable to higher annual culling rates (34 or 45%). The model estimated maximum average milk yield per day of life to occur at 110 DO. At 34% annual culling rate, calves and replacement heifers produced per lifetime declined as DO increased; beyond 150 DO, the modeled cow produced less than 1 replacement heifer per lifetime. The model also estimated a loss of $1.37 per cow per year for a 1-d increase in DO beyond 160 d. At 20% higher feed and milk prices, the model estimated a loss of $1.52 per cow per year; at 20% lower feed and milk prices, the model estimated a loss of $1.23 per cow per year. Furthermore, the model suggested that the loss associated with a 1-d increase in DO changed as DO changed. Using baseline inputs, the model calculated losses for a 1-d increase of $0.44 per cow per year at 130 DO and $1.71 per cow per year at 190 DO. The nonuniform nature of the cost of additional DO is important to veterinarians and producers. The implication is that inefficient reproduction becomes marginally more costly to producers as performance declines and warrants increased attention. Conversely, marginal benefits of improved reproduction decrease as performance improves. Herds with strong reproductive performance have less opportunity to capture economic benefits of improvement.     

A field study to determine the prevalence,dairy herd management systems,and fresh cow clinical conditions associated with ketosis in western European dairy herds

The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence, major management systems, and fresh cow clinical conditions associated with ketosis in western European dairy herds. A total of 131 dairies were enrolled in Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom during 2011 to 2012. A milk-based test for ketones (Keto-Test; Sanwa Kagaku Kenkyusho Co. Ltd., Nagoya, Japan; distributed by Elanco Animal Health, Antwerp, Belgium) was used for screening cows between d 7 and 21 after calving and ketosis was defined as a Keto-Test ≥100 µmol/L. Study cows were observed for clinical disease up to 35 d postcalving. Multivariate analysis (generalized estimating equation logistic regression) was performed to determine country, farm, management, feed, and cow factors associated with ketosis and to determine associations between ketosis and fresh cow diseases. Thirty-nine percent of the cows were classified as having ketosis. The herd average of ketosis was 43% in Germany, 53% in France, 31% in Italy, 46% in the Netherlands, and 31% in the United Kingdom. Of the 131 farms, 112 (85%) had 25% or more of their fresh cows resulting as positive for ketosis. Clinical ketosis was not reported in most farms and the highest level of clinical ketosis reported was 23%. The risks of ketosis were significantly lower in Italy and the United Kingdom compared with France, the Netherlands, and Germany. Larger herd size was associated with a decreased risk of ketosis. The farms that fed partially mixed rations had 1.5 times higher odds of ketosis than those that fed total mixed rations. Cows that calved in April to June had the highest odds of ketosis, with about twice as high odds compared with cows that calved in July to September. The cows that calved in January to March tended to have 1.5 times higher risk of ketosis compared with cows that calved in July to September. The odds of ketosis in parity 2 and parity 3 to 7 was significantly higher (1.5 and 2.8 times higher, respectively) than the odds of ketosis in parity 1. The odds of ketosis was significantly smaller in parity 2 compared with parity 3 to 7. Ketosis was associated with significantly higher odds of all common fresh cow conditions: metritis, mastitis, displaced abomasum, clinical ketosis, lameness, and gastrointestinal disorders. Odds of ketosis in cows having had twins or dystocia were not increased, whereas higher odds of ketosis were observed in cows with milk fever or retained placenta.     

Influence of Production and Prices on Optimum Culling Rates and Annualized Net Revenue

Dynamic programming was used to make optimum insemination and culling decisions for a dairy enterprise. Monthly costs and revenues for cows were calculated from milk and fat yields, calf values, feed costs, veterinary costs, housing and equipment costs, and interest. Cows were described in the dynamic programming model by lactation number, month in lactation, milk production during the present and previous lactations, and time of conception. The model considered variation in milk yield, replacement heifer costs, carcass values, involuntary culling, genetic improvement, conception rates, semen costs, and interest. Prices and parameters were chosen to represent the Holstein population in the US. Optimum average yearly culling rate was about 25% (optimum average herd life was 47.8 mo) and the yearly annuity of net revenue for a replacement heifer over a 15-yr planning horizon was $443 in the base situation. Various average mature equivalent yields, replacement heifer prices, milk prices, and feed prices were used in a sensitivity analysis. The yearly annuity of net revenue was sensitive to changes in all these parameters. Milk yield, milk prices, and feed prices had major effects on yearly annuity. Optimum culling decisions were sensitive to changes in replacement heifer prices. Average mature equivalent milk yield, milk price, and feed price had small effects on culling.     

Lifetime risk and cost of clinical mastitis in dairy cows in relation to heifer rearing conditions in southwest Sweden

Relationships between heifer rearing conditions and the risk of veterinary-reported clinical mastitis (VRCM) during productive life were studied by generalized linear mixed modeling at the lactation level. Data consisted of 5,693 lactations in 2,126 Swedish Reds, Swedish Holsteins, or dairy cows of other or mixed breeds, representing all female animals born in 110 herds in southwest Sweden in 1998. During a lactation, a cow was defined as affected by VRCM if one or more cases were reported by a veterinarian, starting from 7 d precalving. The applied model of VRCM included effects of breed, parity, diarrhea between 3 and 7 mo of age, increase in body weight from weaning to first breeding, increase in daily concentrate ration before first calving, herd-level median age at first calving, cow housing, and random effects of cow and herd. The VRCM incidence was 14% in a given lactation, or 0.11 cases/cow annually; 31% of the cows had VRCM at least once during their productive life. Ninety percent of the variation in mastitis risk was due to factors at the lactation level such as parity, milk yield, cow diseases, and other disturbances, instead of cow or herd factors. Severe diarrhea between 3 and 7 mo of age was associated with 2.8-fold higher odds of VRCM compared with mild diarrhea during the same period, whereas the VRCM odds of calves with mild diarrhea were half that without diarrhea. The odds of VRCM had a predicted maximum at an estimated prepubertal growth rate of 859 g/d and increased with 10% for every 1-kg increase in concentrate ration during the last 2 mo before first calving. Costs of VRCM were estimated based on assumptions regarding veterinary service, extra labor, culling and herd replacement, discarded milk, and production loss depending on parity and lactation stage when VRCM was diagnosed. The total mean costs of VRCM were estimated to be $735 per lactation with a diagnosis of CM, $103 per lactation across all cows, or $95 per cow annually during lifetime.     

Path model of reproductive disorders and performance, milk fever, mastitis, milk yield, and culling in Holstein cows

Path analysis was used to model the direct and indirect relationships among age, previous lactation yield or estimated transmitting ability for milk, body weight, days dry, reproductive disorders, milk fever, mastitis, reproductive performance, current milk yield, and culling. Prospective data were from 784 primiparous and 2,066 multiparous Holstein lactations from 33 herds. Heifers that were older, of lighter weight, or who had lower estimated transmitting ability for milk had more problems, less milk, and poorer survival. Dystocia in heifers had several detrimental consequences including 2.9 to 4 times more retained placenta, metritis, and culling and +7.4 d more to first service. Cystic ovaries were associated directly with 376 kg greater milk yield and with a 16.5-d delay in first service. Failure to conceive at first service and mastitis increased risk of culling 5.2 to 10 times. In multiparous cows, milk fever increased risk of reproductive disorders by 1.6 to 4.2 times and indirectly contributed to poor breeding performance and increased culling. Risk of culling was increased 2.1 to 3.7 times directly by mastitis and dystocia and by poor breeding performance.     

Incidence of metabolic disorders and reproductive performance following a short (35-d) or conventional (60-d) dry period management in commercial Holstein herds

A total of 850 Holstein cows from 13 commercial dairy herds were involved in the present study to compare the effects of 2 different dry period (DP) management strategies on health and reproductive parameters. Cows were assigned to either a short (SDP; 35-d) or a conventional (CDP; 60-d) DP management within each herd, based on previous 305-d milk yield, parity (414 primiparous and 436 multiparous), and estimated calving interval. Cows assigned to CDP were fed a dry cow ration from dry-off until 21 d prepartum, and were then switched to a precalving ration. Cows assigned to SDP were fed the precalving ration throughout their DP. Rations were specific to each herd. A significant treatment × parity interaction was found for culling rate. Dry period management did not affect culling rate for second-lactation cows but a significantly higher culling rate occurred in multiparous CDP cows compared with SDP (42.6 vs. 31.6% ± 3.7 for CDP and SDP, respectively). Management used in the DP did not affect incidence of severe ketosis, displaced abomasum, milk fever, and mastitis, although incidence of these metabolic disorders were lower in second-lactation than third- or greater-lactation cows. The incidence of mild ketosis (evaluated by milk ketone concentration) was lower following SDP, probably as a result of better energy balance. On the other hand, the incidence of retained placenta was higher in multiparous cows assigned to SDP, but the reason for this increase remains unclear. Nevertheless, this did not lead to increased incidence of metritis. Moreover, DP management did not influence reproductive measures, including days in milk at first breeding, number of breedings per conception, as well as conception rates at first and second services. Regarding days open, overall, all 13 herds were not significantly affected by treatment, but 1 herd clearly showed opposite results to the 12 others. Our results indicate that a short DP management strategy could facilitate transition from one lactation to the next by decreasing the incidence of mild ketosis, with no major negative effects on other health parameters and reproduction. The variation in results observed among herds suggests that other management practices influence the response observed following a short or conventional DP, emphasizing the need for other field studies.     

Risk factors for postpartum problems in dairy cows: Explanatory and predictive modeling

The postpartum period is associated with a high incidence of most dairy cattle diseases and a high risk of removal from the herd. Postpartum diseases often share risk factors, and these factors may trigger a cascade of other diseases. The objective of this cohort study was to derive explanatory and predictive models for treatment or removal from the herd within the first 30 d in milk (TXR30). The TXR30 outcome was specifically defined as ≥1 treatment for ≥1 occurrence of milk fever, retained placenta, metritis, ketosis, displaced abomasum, lameness, or pneumonia; removal from the herd (sold or died); or both treatment and later herd removal. The study population consisted of 765 multiparous and 544 primiparous cows (predominantly Holstein) from 4 large commercial freestall-housed dairy herds. Treatment or removal from the herd was recorded as a binary outcome for each cow. Potential explanatory and predictive variables were limited to routine cow data that could be collected either before or within 24 h of calving. Models for multiparous and primiparous cows were developed separately because previous lactation variables are available only for multiparous cows. Adjusted odds ratios for TXR30 in the explanatory model for the multiparous cohort were 2.1 for lactation 3 compared with lactation 2, and 2.3 for lactation 4 or greater compared with lactation 2; 2.3 for locomotion score 3 or 4 compared with score 1; 3.3 for an abnormality at calving compared with no calving abnormality; 1.8 for each 1-standard deviation increase in previous lactation length; and 0.4 for each 5,000-kg increment in previous lactation milk yield in cows with longer previous lactation length. The final predictive model for TXR30 in multiparous cows included predictors similar but not identical to those included in the explanatory model. The area under the curve for the receiver operating characteristic curve from the final predictive model for the multiparous cohort was 0.70, with 60% sensitivity. For the primiparous cohort, calving abnormality increased the odds of TXR30 and was the only variable included in both the explanatory and predictive models. The area under the curve for the receiver operating characteristic curve from the final predictive model for the primiparous cohort was 0.66, with 35% sensitivity. This study identified key risk factors for TXR30 and developed equations for the prediction of TXR30. This information can help dairy producers better understand causes of postpartum problems.     

Economic comparison of systemic antimicrobial therapies for metritis in dairy cows

Metritis is a prevalent disease with effects on production, reproduction, and survival, thereby affecting dairy farm profitability. A component of the cost of metritis is antimicrobial therapy. Some antimicrobials result in milk withhold that adds to the cost of disease. The objectives were (1) to determine cost of metritis for 2 antimicrobial treatments using a herd budget that includes costs associated with incidence of concurrent diseases, milk production and reproduction losses, and removal from the herd and (2) to apply sensitivity analysis to determine the cost of different scenarios. Cows with metritis from a previous study assigned randomly to receive ampicillin (AMP, n = 259), an antimicrobial that requires milk withhold, or ceftiofur (CEFT, n = 269), an antimicrobial with no milk withhold, were used for the economic analysis. A group of cows with no metritis (NOMET, n = 268), matched by parity and calving day, served as the baseline for comparison. The incidence of other diseases in the first 60 d postpartum, culling and death, reproductive performance, discarded milk, milk yield, total milk sold per cow, and residual cow value were used as responses. The economic analysis considered the costs associated with therapy, reproductive management, discarded milk, estimated DM consumed, income from saleable milk, and the residual cow value at 300 d postpartum or earlier if the cow was removed from the herd. Sensitivity analyses were performed considering 3 scenarios for milk and feed prices. The incidence of diseases other than metritis (NOMET, 30.4%; AMP, 45.4%; CEFT, 34.0%) and days in the hospital (NOMET, 2.7 d; AMP, 8.6 d; CEFT, 3.5 d) were greater for cows treated with AMP than CEFT. Treatment did not affect the risk of leaving the herd (NOMET, 15.5%; AMP, 15.0%; CEFT, 19.1%). The 21-d pregnancy rate was lower for cows with metritis but did not differ between AMP and CEFT (NOMET, 24.9%; AMP, 18.9%; CEFT, 17.0%). Milk yield was greater for cows without metritis than those with metritis and greater for AMP than CEFT (NOMET, 33.7 kg/d; AMP, 32.5 kg/d; CEFT, 31.2 kg/d). Cost of metritis did not differ with choice of therapy, but it increased as milk price increased. When both milk and feed prices were the average values considered ($0.44/kg and $0.26/kg, respectively), the costs of a case of metritis for AMP and CEFT were, respectively, $344 and $410 when milk was discarded and $267 and $406 when milk was fed to calves. Cost of therapy for AMP and CEFT represented 16.6 and 24.6% of the total cost of metritis when milk was discarded and 21.5 and 24.8% of the total cost of metritis when milk was fed to calves. The largest component of cost of metritis for both therapies was the reduced income from milk minus feed cost, ranging from 40.0 to 56.7%. Collectively, metritis is an expensive disease, and choice of antimicrobial therapy did not influence survival, reproduction, or cost of the disease.     

The relationship between milk yield and the incidence of some diseases in dairy cows

Logistic regression models were used to examine the relationship between milk yield and incidence of certain disorders. Lactations (n = 2197) of 1074 Holstein-Friesian cows from 10 dairies (25 to 146 cows per dairy) in Lower Saxony were studied. The 305-d yield from the previous and current lactations served as the standards for milk yield. Eight disorder complexes were considered: retained placenta, metritis, ovarian cysts, mastitis, claw diseases, milk fever, ketosis, and displaced abomasum. Each disorder complex was modeled separately. In addition to milk yield, the influences of the lactation number, the calving season and the other disorder complexes were examined with the "herd" factor taken into account. A correlation between retained placenta, mastitis, and milk fever to milk yield during the previous lactation was found to be probable and for ketosis and displaced abomasum such a correlation was found to be possible. A connection to the yield in the current lactation was shown for ovarian cysts, claw diseases, and milk fever. No relationship to milk yield existed for metritis. An influence of the lactation number was also demonstrated in various models. Single models allowed a demonstration of the influences of both milk yield and lactation number. Limitations of the model types are discussed.     

Economic trade-offs between genetic improvement and longevity in dairy cattle

Genetic improvement in sires used for artificial insemination (AI) is increasing faster compared with a decade ago. The genetic merit of replacement heifers is also increasing faster and the genetic lag with older cows in the herd increases. This may trigger greater cow culling to capture this genetic improvement. On the other hand, lower culling rates are often viewed favorably because the costs and environmental effects of maintaining herd size are generally lower. Thus, there is an economic trade-off between genetic improvement and longevity in dairy cattle. The objective of this study was to investigate the principles, literature, and magnitude of these trade-offs. Data from the Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding show that the estimated breeding value of the trait productive life has increased for 50 yr but the actual time cows spend in the herd has not increased. The average annual herd cull rate remains at approximately 36% and cow longevity is approximately 59 mo. The annual increase in average estimated breeding value of the economic index lifetime net merit of Holstein sires is accelerating from $40/yr when the sire entered AI around 2002 to $171/yr for sires that entered AI around 2012. The expectation is therefore that heifers born in 2015 are approximately $50 more profitable per lactation than heifers born in 2014. Asset replacement theory shows that assets should be replaced sooner when the challenging asset is technically improved. Few studies have investigated the direct effects of genetic improvement on optimal cull rates. A 35-yr-old study found that the economically optimal cull rates were in the range of 25 to 27%, compared with the lowest possible involuntary cull rate of 20%. Only a small effect was observed of using the best surviving dams to generate the replacement heifer calves. Genetic improvement from sires had little effect on the optimal cull rate. Another study that optimized culling decisions for individual cows also showed that the effect of changes in genetic improvement of milk revenue minus feed cost on herd longevity was relatively small. Reduced involuntary cull rates improved profitability, but also increased optimal voluntary culling. Finally, an economically optimal culling model with prices from 2015 confirmed that optimal annual cull rates were insensitive to heifer prices and therefore insensitive to genetic improvement in heifers. In conclusion, genetic improvement is important but does not warrant short cow longevity. Economic cow longevity continues to depends more on cow depreciation than on accelerated genetic improvements in heifers. This is confirmed by old and new studies.     

A multi-level hierarchic Markov process with Bayesian updating for herd optimization and simulation in dairy cattle

Herd optimization models that determine economically optimal insemination and replacement decisions are valuable research tools to study various aspects of farming systems. The aim of this study was to develop a herd optimization and simulation model for dairy cattle. The model determines economically optimal insemination and replacement decisions for individual cows and simulates whole-herd results that follow from optimal decisions. The optimization problem was formulated as a multi-level hierarchic Markov process, and a state space model with Bayesian updating was applied to model variation in milk yield. Methodological developments were incorporated in 2 main aspects. First, we introduced an additional level to the model hierarchy to obtain a more tractable and efficient structure. Second, we included a recently developed cattle feed intake model. In addition to methodological developments, new parameters were used in the state space model and other biological functions. Results were generated for Dutch farming conditions, and outcomes were in line with actual herd performance in the Netherlands. Optimal culling decisions were sensitive to variation in milk yield but insensitive to energy requirements for maintenance and feed intake capacity. We anticipate that the model will be applied in research and extension.     

Economics of delayed replacement when cow performance is seasonal

An optimal dairy cow culling and replacement model was developed; it included the option to delay entering heifers into the herd after cows were culled. The objective was to investigate whether leaving a slot temporarily vacant, to enter a heifer at a more favorable time of the year, could be economically advantageous when cow performance is seasonal. The goal of the optimization was therefore to maximize net return per slot per year. The model consisted of 3 modules: 1) a bioeconomic module to enter and calculate cow performance data and prices, 2) a replacement policy module based on dynamic programming to calculate optimal culling decisions for individual cows and when to enter heifers, and 3) a herd performance module based on Markov chains to calculate summary results for the herd. Results for the optimal culling policy under typical conditions in Florida showed that immediate replacement was economically advantageous throughout the year. However, for a nonoptimal culling policy, cows culled in May, June, and July would not be replaced by heifers until August. Realistic increases in seasonality or heifer prices, or lower milk prices, showed economic advantages of delayed over immediate replacement for both culling policies. The maximum advantage of delayed replacement of 486 price scenarios was 88 US dollars per slot per year; cows that left the herd in the early summer and spring were not replaced by heifers until the late summer. Delayed replacement was economically advantageous when fixed costs and net returns per slot were low and seasonality was high, which is the case for a portion of Florida dairy producers.     

Dynamics of culling for Jersey,Holstein, and Jersey × Holstein crossbred cows in large multibreed dairy herds

The objective of this observational study was to describe and compare the dynamics of reason-specific culling risk for the genetic groups Jerseys (JE), Holsteins (HO), and Jersey × Holstein crossbreds (JH), considering parity, stage of lactation, and milk yield, among other variables, in large multibreed dairy herds in Texas. The secondary objective was to analyze the association between survival and management factors, such as breeding and replacement policies, type of facilities, and use of cooling systems. After edits, available data included 202,384 lactations in 16 herds, ranging from 407 to 8,773 cows calving per year during the study period from 2007 to 2011. The distribution of lactation records by genetic group was 58, 36, and 6% for HO, JE, and JH crosses, respectively. Overall culling rates across breeds were 30.1, 32.1, and 35.0% for JH, JE, and HO, respectively. The dynamics of reason-specific culling were dependent on genetic group, parity, stage of lactation, milk yield, and herd characteristics. Early lactation was a critical period for “died” and “injury-sick” culling. The risk increased with days after calving for “breeding” and, in the case of HO, “low production” culling. Open cows had a 3.5 to 4.6 times greater risk for overall culling compared with pregnant cows. The odds of culling with reason “died” within the first 60 d in milk (DIM) were not significantly associated with genetic group. However, both JE and JH crosses had lower odds of live culling within the first 60 DIM compared with HO cows (OR = 0.72 and 0.82, respectively). Other cow variables significantly associated with the risk of dying within the first 60 DIM were cow relative 305-d mature equivalent (305ME) milk yield, parity, and season of calving. Significant herd-related variables for death included herd size and origin of replacements. In addition to genetic group, the risk of live culling within 60 DIM was associated with cow-relative 305ME milk yield, parity, and season of calving. Significant herd-related variables for live culling included herd-relative 305ME milk yield, herd size, type of facility, origin of replacement, and type of maternity. Overall, reason-specific culling followed similar patterns across DIM in the 3 genetic groups.     

The economic cost of metritis in dairy herds

The objective of this study was to estimate the cost of metritis in dairy herds. Data from 11,733 dairy cows from 16 different farms located in 4 different regions of the United States were compiled for up to 305 d in milk, and 11,581 cows (2,907 with and 8,674 without metritis) were used for this study. Metritis was defined as fetid, watery, red-brownish vaginal discharge that occurs ≤21 d in milk. Continuous outcomes such as 305-d milk production, milk sales ($/cow), cow sales ($/cow), metritis treatment costs ($/cow), replacement costs ($/cow), reproduction costs ($/cow), feeding costs ($/cow), and gross profit per cow ($/cow) were analyzed using mixed effect models using the MIXED procedure of SAS (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC). Gross profit was also compared using the Kruskal–Wallis test. Dichotomous outcomes such as pregnant and culling by 305 d in milk were analyzed using the GLIMMIX procedure of SAS. Time to pregnancy and culling were analyzed using the PHREG procedure of SAS. Models included the fixed effects of metritis, parity, and the interaction between metritis and parity, and farm as the random effect. Variables were considered significant when P ≤ 0.05. Metritis cost was calculated by subtracting the gross profit of cows with metritis from the gross profit of cows without metritis. A stochastic analysis was performed with 10,000 iterations using the observed results from each group. Milk yield and proportion of cows pregnant were lesser for cows with metritis than for cows without metritis, whereas the proportion of cows leaving the herd was greater for cows with metritis than for cows without metritis. Milk sales, feeding costs, residual cow value, and gross profit were lesser for cows with metritis than for cows without metritis. Cow sales and replacement costs were greater for cows with metritis than for cows without metritis. The mean cost of metritis from the study herds was $511 and the median was $398. The stochastic analysis showed that the mean cost of a case of metritis was $513, with 95% of the scenarios ranging from $240 to $884, and that milk price, treatment cost, replacement cost, and feed cost explained 59%, 19%, 12%, and 7%, respectively, of the total variation in cash flow differences. In conclusion, metritis caused large economic losses to dairy herds by decreasing milk production, reproduction, and survival in the herd.     

Effects of diseases on test day milk yield and body weight of dairy cows from Danish research herds.

The pre- and postdisease interrelationships of energy corrected test day milk yield and body weight of dairy cows caused by mastitis, three reproductive disorders (retained placenta, metritis, cystic ovaries), and seven metabolic disorders (milk fever, ketosis, decreased rumen motility, enteritis, left displaced abomasum, right displaced abomasum, and off feed) were quantified by using mixed models analysis with repeated measures of continuous data. The data were weekly recordings from 4414 lactations collected in three Danish research herds. High milk yield was a risk factor for ketosis and enteritis. Heavier primiparous cows were more likely to contract mastitis. Milk yield was decreased for a disease-specific period for all study diseases except cystic ovaries and right displaced abomasum. Metabolic disorders had a detrimental effect on body weight. The highest weight loss (69 kg) was associated with left displaced abomasum. The persistence of the weight loss differed considerably among study diseases. Almost all weight loss occurred up to and including the initial week after diagnosis, which emphasized the detrimental effect of the subclinical stage. However, weekly measured body weight seemed superior to weekly energy corrected test day milk yield for disease detection only for decreased rumen motility and left displaced abomasum. This study demonstrates the importance of the predisease level for accurate estimation of the loss of milk yield and body weight from disease.