The Characteristics of Persistent Sexual Offenders: A Meta-Analysis of Recidivism Studies.

A meta-analysis of 82 recidivism studies (1,620 findings from 29,450 sexual offenders) identified deviant sexual preferences and antisocial orientation as the major predictors of sexual recidivism for both adult and adolescent sexual offenders. Antisocial orientation was the major predictor of violent recidivism and general (any) recidivism. The review also identified some dynamic risk factors that have the potential of being useful treatment targets (e.g., sexual preoccupations, general self-regulation problems). Many of the variables commonly addressed in sex offender treatment programs (e.g., psychological distress, denial of sex crime, victim empathy, stated motivation for treatment) had little or no relationship with sexual or violent recidivism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Evaluating Community Sex Offender Treatment Programs: A 12-Year Follow-Up of 724 Offenders.

Although some studies suggest positive effects of treatment for sexual offenders, most studies have been hampered by the unknown influence of selective attrition (e.g., volunteers and drop-outs). In the 1980s, the Correctional Service of Canada began to require weekly community treatment sessions for all sex offenders released in the Pacific Region. This policy change provided a unique opportunity for comparing an unselected cohort of treated sex offenders (n = 403) to an untreated cohort (n = 321) released in earlier years. After an average 12-year follow-up period, no differences were observed in the rates of sexual (21.1% vs 21.8%), violent (42.9% vs. 44.5%) or general (any) recidivism (56.6% vs 60.4%) for treated and untreated groups, respectively. The outcome remained comparable after controlling for length of follow- up, year of release, age, and seven static risk factors coded from official criminal history records. Retrospective ratings of the treatment quality also showed no relationship to observed recidivism rates. The static risk factors coded in the current study accounted for considerable variance in recidivism and could easily be used to improve statistical controls in future evaluations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The relationship between status variables and criminal thinking in an offender population.

The authors examined the relationship between criminal thinking factors of control, cognitive immaturity, and egocentrism, and offender characteristics (i.e., age, education, sentence length, time served, reception of mental health services) in 435 adult male offenders. Results of a canonical correlation analysis identified 1 significant and meaningful relationship between a criminal thinking set containing all 3 factors and an offender characteristic set containing all characteristics except for age. Higher levels of criminal thinking on all 3 factors were associated with more education, longer sentence length, more time served, and lack of reception of mental health services. Implications for providing treatment with offenders that targets reducing criminal recidivism and future directions for investigation into the relationship between dynamic recidivism risk factors and offender characteristics are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Predicting relapse: A meta-analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies.

Evidence from 61 follow-up studies was examined to identify the factors most strongly related to recidivism among sexual offenders. On average, the sexual offense recidivism rate was low (13.4%; n?=?23,393). There were, however, subgroups of offenders who recidivated at high rates. Sexual offense recidivism was best predicted by measures of sexual deviancy (e.g., deviant sexual preferences, prior sexual offenses) and, to a lesser extent, by general criminological factors (e.g., age, total prior offenses). Those offenders who failed to complete treatment were at higher risk for reoffending than those who completed treatment. The predictors of nonsexual violent recidivism and general (any) recidivism were similar to those predictors found among nonsexual criminals (e.g., prior violent offenses, age, juvenile delinquency). Our results suggest that applied risk assessments of sexual offenders should consider separately the offender's risk for sexual and nonsexual recidivism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The long-term prediction of offender recidivism using diagnostic, personality, and risk/need approaches to offender assessment.

The present study examined the prediction of recidivism using diagnostic, personality, and risk/need approaches over a 10-year follow-up in a heterogeneous sample of 61 offenders (i.e., probationers and provincial and federal offenders). The Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI), Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R), and DSM-III antisocial personality disorder (APD) were examined. The measures were highly correlated and demonstrated theoretically meaningful patterns of convergent validity. Although psychopathy was highly correlated with both LS/CMI and APD, the majority of the shared variance with LS/CMI and with APD was accounted for by Factor 2 and the criminality facet of the PCL-R. All three assessment measures predicted future violence, any future reincarceration upon release, and recidivism severity (as measured by aggregate sentence length). However, none of these measures made a significant incremental contribution to the prediction of recidivism beyond either of the other two measures. Differences between the predictive validities of the three measures were minimal. The results are discussed in terms of recent debates concerning the use of these instruments in the assessment of offender risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Therapeutic responses of psychopathic sexual offenders: Treatment attrition, therapeutic change, and long-term recidivism.

The authors examined the therapeutic responses of psychopathic sex offenders (≥25 Psychopathy Checklist—Revised; PCL–R) in terms of treatment dropout and therapeutic change, as well as sexual and violent recidivism over a 10-year follow-up among 156 federally incarcerated sex offenders treated in a high-intensity inpatient sex offender program. Psychopathy and sex offender risk/treatment change were assessed using the PCL–R and the Violence Risk Scale—Sexual Offender version (VRS–SO), respectively. Although psychopathic participants were more likely than their nonpsychopathic counterparts (     

Violent offender research and implications for the criminal justice system.

Some offenders are at very high risk to reoffend. Research conducted at the author's institution and elsewhere shows that psychopathic offenders are especially likely to be violent, that future violence can be predicted with considerable accuracy among men who have committed at least 1 violent offense, and that treatment programs to reduce dangerousness do not always have the intended effects (i.e., they may actually increase the dangerousness of some individuals). Implications for the criminal justice system pertain to release following insanity acquittal offender sentencing and parole, preventive detention, offender treatment, and program evaluation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A Brief Actuarial Assessment for the Prediction of Wife Assault Recidivism: The Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment.

An actuarial assessment to predict male-to-female marital violence was constructed from a pool of potential predictors in a sample of 589 offenders identified in police records and followed up for an average of almost 5 years. Archival information in several domains (offender characteristics, domestic violence history, nondomestic criminal history, relationship characteristics, victim characteristics, index offense) and recidivism were subjected to setwise and stepwise logistic regression. The resulting 13-item scale, the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA), showed a large effect size in predicting new assaults against legal or common-law wives or ex-wives (Cohen's d = 1.1, relative operating characteristic area = .77) and was associated with number and severity of new assaults and time until recidivism. Cross-validation and comparisons with other instruments are also reported. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Rehabilitating criminal justice policy and practice.

For over 30 years, criminal justice policy has been dominated by a “get tough” approach to offenders. Increasing punitive measures have failed to reduce criminal recidivism and instead have led to a rapidly growing correctional system that has strained government budgets. The inability of reliance on official punishment to deter crime is understandable within the context of the psychology of human conduct. However, this knowledge was largely ignored in the quest for harsher punishment. A better option for dealing with crime is to place greater effort on the rehabilitation of offenders. In particular, programs that adhere to the Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model have been shown to reduce offender recidivism by up to 35%. The model describes: a) who should receive services (moderate and higher risk cases), b) the appropriate targets for rehabilitation services (criminogenic needs), and c) the powerful influence strategies for reducing criminal behavior (cognitive social learning). Although the RNR model is well known in the correctional field it is less well known, but equally relevant, for forensic, clinical, and counseling psychology. The paper summarizes the empirical base to RNR along with implications for research, policy, and practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

A high risk recognition program for adolescents in conflict with the law.

Describes a high risk recognition program aimed at reducing recidivism among the heterogeneous young offender population. The program, which is based on cognitive-behavioral relapse prevention programs for adult sexual offenders, was developed for use within an inpatient treatment program for 14–18 yr olds sentenced to secure custody for a variety of crimes. Young offenders identify risk factors or warning signs for various forms of offending behavior based on their analysis of past criminal acts. They then generate strategies for coping with future recurrence of these risk factors. The authors consider the utility and applicability of such an intervention and make recommendations for researching the efficacy of the technique. (French abstract) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Field validity of the STATIC-99 and MnSOST-R among sex offenders evaluated for civil commitment as sexually violent predators.

Despite their widespread use in forensic and correctional practice, surprisingly little research investigates how well actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) for sexual offenders work within the contexts where they are routinely applied. We examined the predictive validity (M = 4.77 years follow-up) of the two most widely used ARAIs for sexual offenders, the STATIC-99 and Minnesota Sex Offender Sex Offender Screening Tool–Revised (MnSOST-R), as administered in routine practice among 1,928 offenders screened for possible civil commitment as sexually violent predators. Effect sizes for both ARAIs were lower than in most published research and meta-analytic reviews, although the STATIC-99 was a more consistent predictor of recidivism than the MnSOST-R. Recidivism rates for the STATIC-99 were much closer to those expected based on the 2009 norms than the 2003 norms. Offender characteristics (e.g., age at release, prior arrests, release type) were often as or more effective than ARAIs for predicting recidivism. This study, apparently the largest cross-validation study of popular ARAIs for sex offenders, suggests that the predictive validity of these measures in routine practice in the United States may be poorer than often assumed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Recidivism rates among child molesters and rapists: a methodological analysis

We address the high variability in sex offender recidivism rates by examining several of the critical methodological differences that underlie this variability. We used a dataset on 251 sex offenders (136 rapists and 115 child molesters) who were discharged over a 25-year period to examine changes in recidivism as a function of changes in dispositional definition of reoffense (e.g., arrest or conviction), changes in the domain of criminal offenses that are considered, and changes in the length of exposure time. The data indicate that: (a) both rapists and child molesters remain at risk to reoffend long after their discharge, in some cases 15-20 years after discharge; (b) there was a marked underestimation of recidivism when calculating a simple proportion (%) consisting of those who were known to have reoffended during the follow-up period, and (c) there was a marked underestimation of recidivism when the criterion was based on conviction or imprisonment. Forensic, clinical and policy implications of this high variability are discussed.     

Treatment gain for sexual offenders against children predicts reduced recidivism: A comparative validity study.

Objective: To determine whether pro-social treatment change in sexual offenders would predict reductions in recidivism beyond static and dynamic risk factors measured at pretreatment and whether different methods for assessing change based on self-reports and structured clinical rating systems would show convergent validity. Method: We compared 3 methods for assessing treatment change with a sample of adult male sexual offenders against children (n = 218) who completed a prison-based cognitive–behavioral treatment program between 1993 and 2000. The methods were measures of change derived from offender self-reports on a psychometric battery administered both pre- and posttreatment, change across treatment on the Violence Risk Scale: Sexual Offender Version (VRS:SO; Olver, Wong, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2007), and posttreatment ratings on the Standard Goal Attainment Scaling for Sex Offenders (SGAS; Hogue, 1994). Offenders were followed up for an average of 12.24 years after release. Results: All measures of treatment gain were positively correlated, and all significantly predicted reductions in sexual recidivism, with values for the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve ranging from .66 (SGAS) to .70 (VRS:SO). Survival analyses showed that measures of change based on the psychometric battery significantly predicted recidivism after controlling for both static and dynamic factors measured at pretreatment, while results for the VRS:SO were similar but failed to reach significance. Conclusions: Measures of treatment change based on offender self-reports and structured clinical rating systems show convergent and predictive validity, which suggests that effective treatment that targets dynamic risk factors leads to a reduction in sexual recidivism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Long-term recidivism of child molesters.

Examined the long-term recidivism rates of 197 child molesters released from prison between 1958 and 1974. Overall, 42% of the total sample were reconvicted for sexual crimes, violent crimes, or both, with 10% of the total sample reconvicted 10–31 yrs after being released. Incest offenders were reconvicted at a slower rate than were offenders who selected only boys, with offenders against girls showing a rate intermediate between these 2 groups. Other factors associated with increased recidivism were (1) never being married and (2) previous sexual offenses. None of the mental health and personality tests used in this study (e.g., the Eysenck Personality Inventory and the MMPI) was significantly associated with recidivism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The prediction of criminal and violent recidivism among mentally disordered offenders: A meta-analysis.

A meta-analysis was conducted to examine whether the predictors of recidivism for mentally disordered offenders are different from the predictors for nondisordered offenders. Effect sizes were calculated for 35 predictors of general recidivism and 27 predictors of violent recidivism drawn from 64 unique samples. The results showed that the major predictors of recidivism were the same for mentally disordered offenders as for nondisordered offenders. Criminal history variables were the best predictors, and clinical variables showed the smallest effect sizes. The findings suggest that the risk assessment of mentally disordered offenders can be enhanced with more attention to the social psychological criminological literature and less reliance on models of psychopathology. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Predicting recidivism with the Personality Assessment Inventory in a sample of sex offenders screened for civil commitment as sexually violent predators.

We examined the ability of scores from the Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI; Morey, 1991) to predict postrelease (M = 4.90 years follow-up) arrests in a sample of 1,412 sex offenders. We focused on scores from 4 PAI measures conceptually relevant to offending, including the Antisocial Features (ANT), Aggression (AGG), and Dominance (DOM) scales, as well as the Violence Potential Index (VPI). Scores from several PAI measures demonstrated small- to medium-sized effects in predicting violent nonsexual recidivism, nonviolent recidivism, and sex offender registry violations, with the AGG scale being the strongest (d = 0.50 for violent nonsexual recidivism, d = 0.55 for sex offender registry violations) and most consistent predictor of recidivism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The validity and reliability of the Violence Risk Scale: A treatment-friendly violence risk assessment tool.

The development of risk assessment tools that use dynamic variables to predict recidivism and to inform and facilitate violence reduction interventions is the next major challenge in the field of risk assessment and management. This study is the first in a 2-step process to validate the Violence Risk Scale (VRS), a risk assessment tool that integrates violence assessment, prediction, and treatment. Ratings of the 6 static and 20 dynamic VRS variables assess the client's level of risk. Ratings of the dynamic variables identify treatment targets linked to violence, and ratings of the stages of change of the treatment targets assess the client's treatment readiness and change. The VRS scores of 918 male offenders showed good interrater reliability and internal consistency and could predict violent and nonviolent recidivism over both short- and longer term (4.4-year) follow-up. The probability of violent and nonviolent recidivism varied linearly with VRS scores. Dynamic and static variables performed equally well. The results support the contention that the VRS can be used to assess violent risk and to guide violence reduction treatment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The validity and reliability of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version: Assessing sex offender risk and evaluating therapeutic change.

The Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO) is a rating scale designed to assess risk and predict sexual recidivism, to measure and link treatment changes to sexual recidivism, and to inform the delivery of sexual offender treatment. The VRS-SO comprises 7 static and 17 dynamic items empirically or conceptually linked to sexual recidivism. Dynamic items with higher ratings identify treatment targets linked to sexual offending. A modified stages of change model assesses the offender's treatment readiness and change. File-based VRS-SO ratings were completed on 321 sex offenders followed up an average of 10 years postrelease. VRS-SO scores predicted sexual and nonsexual violent recidivism postrelease and demonstrated acceptable interrater reliability and concurrent validity. A factor analysis of the dynamic items generated 3 factors labeled Sexual Deviance, Criminality, and Treatment Responsivity, all of which predicted sexual recidivism and were differentially associated with different sex offender types. The dynamic items together made incremental contributions to sexual recidivism prediction after static risk was controlled for. Positive changes in the dynamic items, measured at pre- and posttreatment, were significantly related to reductions in sexual recidivism after risk and follow-up time were controlled for, suggesting that dynamic items are indeed dynamic or changeable in nature. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Correction to Hilton et al. (2004).

Reports errors in the article "A Brief Actuarial Assessment for the Prediction of Wife Assault Recidivism: The Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment," by N. Zoe Hilton, Grant T. Harris, Marnie E. Rice, Carol Lang, Catherine A. Cormier, and Kathryn J. Lines (Psychological Assessment, 2004, Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 267-275). On page 272, line 7, and in footnote 6, line 3, the proportions assigned to the categories with scores of 5-6 and 7-13 are incorrect. The correct proportions are 13% and 7%, respectively. These changes do not affect the conclusions reported in that article. (The following abstract of this article originally appeared in record 2004-18546-006): An actuarial assessment to predict male-to-female marital violence was constructed from a pool of potential predictors in a sample of 589 offenders identified in police records and followed up for an average of almost 5 years. Archival information in several domains (offender characteristics, domestic violence history, nondomestic criminal history, relationship characteristics, victim characteristics, index offense) and recidivism were subjected to setwise and stepwise logistic regression. The resulting 13-item scale, the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA), showed a large effect size in predicting new assaults against legal or common-law wives or ex-wives (Cohen's d=1.1, relative operating characteristic area=.77) and was associated with number and severity of new assaults and time until recidivism. Cross-validation and comparisons with other instruments are also reported. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)