基于组合赋权—改进TOPSIS 法的综合管廊运维风险评价模型

城市地下综合管廊是城市地下空间开发运营能力的集中体现。针对综合管廊风险管理研究不够的问题,提出了一种基于组合赋权—改进TOPSIS 法的综合管廊风险评价模型。综合考虑人为风险、技术风险、设备风险、管理风险、环境风险 5 项准则层风险对应的21 个风险因素指标。采用改进层次分析法与熵权法分别确定主客观权重,结合理想点法确定风险因素指标的综合权重。以模糊理想解相似排序技术（TOPSIS）为基础,运用马氏距离法对传统TOPSIS 法进行改进,对准则层风险因素到正负理想解的距离进行综合评价并排序。结果表明:技术风险对综合管廊风险影响程度最大,其次为管理风险。通过典型案例,证明模型的评价结果能够较为实际的反应综合管廊工程风险的情况,具有较强的指导意义。     

激励性契约、管理者能力与盈余管理

基于管理者能力异质性现实,依据经济学概念量化管理者能力这一综合指标,以我国上市公司样本数据研究管理者能力对盈余管理的影响,即管理者能力越强,公司盈余管理程度越大。继而在管理者能力差异影响企业盈余管理程度的基础上,进一步论证激励性契约对二者关系的影响。结果表明,激励性契约能够有效改变管理者能力在盈余管理行为中发挥的作用,具体为薪酬激励能够显著降低高能力管理者进行盈余管理的程度;晋升激励对能力较高的管理者也能发挥较好的激励作用,并抑制其盈余管理行为。     

基于分期开发模糊期权的绿色住宅增量投资风险评估

绿色住宅的增量投资风险是困扰多数房产开发企业投资决策的主要因素.针对这一问题,将从识别和分析影响绿色住宅增量投资的风险因素人手,利用模糊数学的处理方法量化增量投资风险对增量投资经济效益的影响程度,并结合分期开发实物期权定价模型进行项目增量投资风险的潜在价值评估.最后通过实例分析,为绿色住宅的开发企业提供一种综合风险评估和价值分析的投资决策方法.     

建设工程业主对安全管理者激励模式的设计——基于双重委托代理理论

建设项目中,施工管理人员的安全管理效果直接影响着整个建设项目的生命财产安全,针对我国施工安全管理的现状,基于双重委托代理理论,构建了建设项目中包括业主、施工单位和施工管理者在内的双重代理多任务的委托代理激励模型,定量地研究了安全工作风险、业主的惩罚力度和安全工作绩效对管理者安全工作努力程度的影响。结果表明:风险规避的施工管理者,业主对安全绩效激励系数的增加以及增大的安全工作绩效系数都会促使其安全管理努力水平的增加,然而,安全管理努力水平会随着安全工作风险程度的增大而减小。业主可通过加大对施工管理者安全工作任务的激励系数来激励其更好地进行安全管理工作。研究结论对建设项目的安全管理具有一定的参考价值。     

基于WBS-RBS与AHP的混凝土—模板支撑工程风险研究

为管理者对工程风险认知与控制提供有价值的参考,对混凝土—模板支撑工程展开风险分析。采用 WBS-RBS 法进行风险辨识,辨识出工作中可能存在的风险因素,并与 AHP 法相结合确定风险权重指数,再根据风险度理论评定风险因素重要程度。结果表明 基本工作包中模板搭设安装和混凝土浇筑总风险度较大,需要重点关注,加强管理制定应急预案。施工作业中拆模时间过短、人为过失、未按浇筑顺序施工等 3 种风险因素较为重要,应着重加强防范。采用有效的风险分析方法有助于管理人员得知关键风险因素,并针对性提出应对措施减小安全事故的发生。     

模糊综合评判在索赔风险中的应用

利用模糊综合评判理论对工程项目中的索赔风险进行分析,通过辨识找出影响索赔风险的主要因素,提高项目索赔管理的可控性和有效性,使业主方和施工方在项目初期明确影响索赔的主要因素,对索赔严加管理,最终起到减少索赔事件发生的作用。     

基于模糊综合评价法的房地产投资风险评价

从经济风险、社会风险、管理风险、环境风险四个方面建立了项目投资风险多层次评价指标体系。用层次分析法计算了各级指标的权重,运用了模糊综合评价方法对房地产项目投资进行风险评价,建立了模糊综合评价数学模型,提出一种基于模糊综合评价模型的定量化研究方法,并指出本模型能够综合评价开发项目的风险程度,对于预测开发项目风险程度具有较高的实用价值。     

基于改进 DEMATEL-ISM 的建筑施工安全风险影响因素分析

为提高建筑施工过程中风险控制水平,有效减少建筑安全事故的发生, 基于事故案例研究、文献分析和专家讨论提炼了 19 项风险影响因素,构建了建筑施工安全风险影响体系。采用 Apriori 算法改进 DEMATEL（决策实验室分析法）确定影响因素的重要性和因果属性,并集成 ISM（解释结构模型）建立影响因素的递阶结构模型。研究表明: 改进的 DEMATEL-ISM模型可反应风险因素之间的客观联系;确定了 11 个原因因素和 8 个结果因素, 其中违章冒险作业、施工作业环境不良、缺乏安全技能知识、无证上岗和安全教育培训不彻底是导致建筑安全事故发生的关键风险因素; 影响因素可划分为 3 阶 7 层的递阶结构,现场安全管理缺失是导致事故发生的根本影响因素。研究结果可为管理者采取相关针对性措施,预防安全事故的发生提供一定的参考依据。     

养老地产PPP 项目投资风险评价研究

由于养老地产PPP 项目投资成本高、投资环境复杂、投资回收期长等特点,使项目开发存在较高的投资风险。从项目建设、运营状况、养老行业和宏观环境4 个方面,总结出养老地产PPP 项目投资过程中的16 个风险因素,运用模糊综合评价方法对各项风险因素进行评价,确定各风险因素对养老地产PPP 项目的影响程度,并针对主要风险因素提出规避风险的建议,以期为社会资本对养老地产PPP 项目投资风险分析提供依据。     

基于N-K模型的北京地铁矿山法施工风险耦合研究

为研究北京地铁矿山法施工风险耦合特性,从人员、机械材料、环境、管理、施工技术5个维度进行风险耦合分析,采用N-K模型计算不同风险耦合方式发生的概率及耦合值.结果表明,管理因素和人员因素参与的耦合过程,风险耦合程度较大,风险事件发生概率较大.因此,在地铁施工过程中应加强对人员因素和管理因素的关注,避免出现多因素耦合问题,...     

Project risk management methodology for small firms

We present a project management methodology designed for small businesses (SMEs), who need to run projects beyond their normal operations. These projects are critical to the survival of these organisations, such as the development of new products to adapt to the market or new legislation, management system implementations, etc. Very frequently, the managers of these projects are not project management professionals, so they need guidance to have autonomy, using minimal time and documentation resources. The risk management method outlined in this paper is based on extensive research with a large number (72) of Spanish companies. This new methodology considers the factors that are usually neglected by SMEs; i.e., project alignment with the company's strategy and results management. The methodology, based on project risk management, includes simple tools, templates and risk checklists with recommended actions and indicators. For validation it was tested in five different types of real projects (innovation, management systems and ICT implementation) of industrial and service companies with different characteristics.     

旧城改造项目的风险管理

旧城改造项目对城市的发展起着重要作用。文章借鉴工程项目风险管理理论,对旧城改造项目的风险管理进行了探讨。运用模糊综合评价的方法对具体的旧城改造项目的风险进行了评估,并就旧城改造项目的主要风险提出了一些风险对策,希望通过科学合理的风险管理更好地实施旧城改造项目。     

城市更新背景下旧居住区改造项目风险管理研究

我国城市旧居住区改造项目存量巨大,为应对此类项目风险复杂且缺乏专业风险管理体系的问题,基于对城市旧居住区改造项目风险管理相关研究成果的总结,充分考虑我国城市旧居住区改造项目的特征,系统整理城市旧居住区改造项目的风险指标,运用熵权法和模糊综合评价法构建城市旧居住区改造项目风险管理评估体系。并选取岳阳市郭亮片区改造项目对建立的评估体系进行验证,填补了现有针对城市更新项目风险管理的研究不足,为提升我国城市旧居住区改造项目的风险管理水平提供科学参考。     

Maximizing strategic value from megaprojects: The influence of information-feed on decision-making by the project manager

Large projects are notorious for erosion of value during execution. Decisions made by project managers have a significant impact on the strategic value of the asset delivered, and those decisions depend on the information feed on which they are based. This study uses theories of organizational behavior, decision-making and program management to investigate the impact of information feed used by project managers on the strategic value delivered by mega projects in the oil and gas industry. A global survey of 69 managers of mega-projects was conducted. Results showed that information feed to project managers significantly influences the strategic value created by megaprojects. Also some moderating effects of contextual factors on this relationship were found. The contextual factors that influenced project manager decision-making relate to what they perceived to be Senior Management drivers for their projects. However the hypothesized moderating influence of project manager experience on decision-making was not found—an interesting observation. It was found that the extent to which project managers feel in control should influence the scope and quality of information-feed that should be sought. Four risk areas were observed as significant to long-term value creation from megaprojects: government relations; host community relations; contract management and procurement; and the influence of multi-location execution.     

Intervening conditions on the management of project risk: Dealing with uncertainty in information technology projects

A review of the outcome of many information technology (IT) projects reveals that they fail to meet the pre-specified project objectives of scope, time and budget. Despite well-established project risk management processes, project managers perceive their application as ineffective to manage risk. This failure may well be attributed to the inadequate application of those risk management processes. The purpose of this research was to investigate how project managers responsible for the management of risk in IT projects actually managed risk and to relate this back to established project risk management processes. In undertaking this investigation, we were seeking to understand the ways in which the project managers’ approaches and behaviours, when considering risk in IT projects, differed from what might be expected. Results show that because of environment-related and decision maker-related conditions, project managers tend to deny, avoid, ignore and delay dealing with risk, with the consequence of those actions having an adverse influence on their perceived effectiveness of risk management and the project outcomes. If project risk management, and its underlying processes are not to be discredited, the behaviour of project managers when confronted by uncertainty should be considered and actions need to be taken to discourage project managers’ irrational actions.     

ConSERV, a project specific risk management concept

Managing risks in design intensive multi-disciplinary capital projects presents unique problems for decision makers within the project environment. Existing risk management tools, tend to employ axiomatic software and as such do not provide any intelligent risk management capability or lead to better informed decision making processes. ConSERV is being developed as a comprehensive project management methodology able to extract project specific risk issues throughout the project life cycle and apply experiential knowledge by using a knowledge-based system to assist in the management of them. A visual representation of the project risks is obtained by employing a more practical non probabilistic approach. ConSERV will provide project managers with on line decision support, at key stages of the project to assist in the management and control of the project specific risks identified.     

BOT项目风险管理浅析

BOT作为一种先进高效的基础设施建设的投资方式已在国内得到了成功应用,为加快经济发展起到了巨大的促进作用。但是,由于存在投资规模大,建设周期长,结构复杂等特点,BOT项目比一般工程项目面临着更为复杂的风险因素,风险问题已然成为BOT项目的核心问题之一。本文在这一背景下,分析了BOT项目在前期运作期、建设期、运营期以及移交期四个阶段面临的主要风险,探讨了项目过程中实施全面的前期运作风险管理、完工风险管理、运营风险管理及移交风险管理的方式方法。只有实行全过程的风险管理,才能保证项目得以顺利进行并最终产生效益。     

Measuring the maturity of risk management in large-scale construction projects

The uncertainties and randomness in multi-dimensional risk management (RM) in large-scale construction projects should be effectively detected and measured through reliable managerial procedures to eliminate or reduce adverse consequences such as casualties and asset damages in advance. This paper aims at an innovative technical solution for project managers to better understand the level of RM practice by means of RM maturity measurement. Based on the theory of system science and previous research into project management in the maturity of RM, this paper describes the prototype of an RM Maturity System (RMMS) for large-scale construction projects. The system is underpinned by using the Analytic Network Process (ANP) method in order to measure the overall effectiveness of RM against major risk factors. The RMMS consists of three components to focus on capabilities, evaluation and evolution in RM. A case study is given at the end to verify the feasibility of the system.     

基于ERP 系统的建筑企业信息化建设风险评价研究

从建筑企业管理者的角度出发,针对建筑企业实施ERP 的盲目性,在问卷结果分析和建筑企业内部风险因素分析的基础上,建立了实施ERP 阶段的内部风险评价指标体系。引入了技术创新项目风险评价的典型模型,考虑ERP 项目实施的失败概率及其预期损失,结合专家调查法,提出集值统计—专家调查法的多因素风险评价模型,并给出了风险标准参考值,为实现企业不同需求的风险自评价提供了简便易行的操作方法和可靠科学的后期决策依据,以期促进建筑企业信息化建设。