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太阳辐射逐时模型的建立 总被引:13,自引:4,他引:13
讨论了性确定性与模型与随机模型联合使用方法,建立了太阳总辐射ARIMA逐时模型,该模型可用于模拟逐时太阳辐射,提供建筑能耗分析用的逐时太阳辐射参数,还可用于预报,控制等。 相似文献
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将分解模型(decomposition model)按照输入参数、构造方法及特性分为3类,选择拉萨、西安、上海2016年辐射观测值作为实验数据,引入精确度分值(accuracy score, AS)作为模型适应性评判标准,研究晴、多云、阴3种天气类型下分解模型适应性规律以及针对不同天气类型适应模型形式。结果表明天气类型对模型的适应性有显著影响,即由晴到阴模型整体适应性呈下降趋势;当天气特别晴朗时第Ⅱ类模型适应性明显优于其他两类模型,而对于其他天气类型第Ⅰ类的C.P.R模型适应性最好。利用天气类型适应模型,3个地区全年逐时总辐射误差平均可减小3%,平均绝对误差百分率(PMAE)在20%~25%之间,均方根误差百分率(PRMSE)在26%~32%之间。可见利用天气适应模型能够有效减小估算误差,逐时总辐射数据精度能够满足建筑节能设计需求。 相似文献
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Widely used correlations, for estimating both the monthly average global and diffuse radiations incident on a horizontal surface, have been statistically compared to recommend ones that best fit the measured radiation data in Jordan The recommended correlations were further modified, by estimating the various coefficients of these correlations based on Jordanian data, to increase their accuracy in predicting both the global and diffuse radiation in Jordan. Finally a good agreement was obtained between the measured radiation data and the predicted data using the modified correlations. 相似文献
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通过分析影响太阳辐射的主要因素,提出以太阳高度角、季节和天气(晴空指数)作为数据划分依据的分组模型建立方法。以拉萨和西安地区的逐时气象数据和辐射数据为例,基于遗传算法(genetic algorithm,GA)优化的BP神经网络,建立太阳高度角、季节和天气类型的逐时总辐射分组模型。该研究揭示分组模型误差变化的规律,并将其估算误差与AllData模型比较。结果显示,相较于AllData模型,分组模型的估算误差均有降低。其中,天气分组模型误差最小,且西安的天气分组模型结果优于拉萨。西安天气分组模型平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)和相对均方根误差(rRMSE)相较AllData模型结果分别下降3.96%和4.18%。研究结果表明分组模型能够降低逐时总辐射估算误差,可为估算逐时总辐射提供方法借鉴。 相似文献
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The present article deals with evaluating the relative performance of the correlations to predict symmetric and asymmetric monthly average hourly values of global solar radiation from corresponding daily values. It has been found that the symmetric correlation due to CoUares-Pereira and Rabl [7] and asymmetric form due to Satyamurty and Lahiri [9] perform satisfactorily over a wide range of locations tested. 相似文献
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Solar radiation measurements at one location in Cyprus are used to test the applicability of several theoretical and empirical models which compute diffuse radiation on a horizontal surface. Two types of correlation tests were used [1]: the first correlates the ratio of diffuse-to-global solar radiation with the “clearness index” KT; and the second correlates the ratio of diffuse-to-global solar radiation with the fractional sunshine. Therefore, the selected models for discussion are compared and tested for their applicability to one location in die eastern Mediterranean basin in general, on the basis of statistical error tests. A comparative study of the models shows that Page's model [3], based on the first type of correlations and Hay's one [13] based on the second type of correlations, are equally accurate for the greater Cypriote environment. Finally, two statistical equations are proposed for estimating diffuse radiation for solar energy applications in the greater environment of Cyprus. 相似文献
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Precipitable water by reflecting the total water vapour amount in zenith direction between the surface of the earth and the top of the atmosphere is considered an important parameter for soiar radiation models. However, lack of ground data and/or radiosoundings in the examined area results in the inability to calculate precipitable water with further implications in the results of solar radiation models. The aim of this study is the estimation of the probability distribution function of the annual mean of precipitable water for Southern Greece. For the purposes of the study, radiosoundings of the National Meteorological Agency at Hellinicon station were used to obtain the daily values of water vapour for the period 1974-1995. Results were compared to measurements to show satisfactory agreement, a fact which allows their use for solar energy studies – as well as for energy budget calculations – in Southern Greece where in situ measurements are missing. 相似文献
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用于地面光伏发电的太阳辐射资源受到云影响所产生的变化,由于受到观测方式限制而对其特征及关联性探究不足。针对该问题,利用CERES卫星观测时空数据,对2001—2018年中国大陆地区云对地表太阳辐射量影响特征进行分析,利用不同高度云量与云太阳辐射强迫时空分布特点,讨论云影响的太阳辐射差异对光伏出力预计影响,并通过各高度云量趋势变化与云太阳辐射强迫关联关系给出相应太阳辐射资源与光伏出力的趋势变化估计,分析云主导的太阳辐射趋势变化成因,以期为未来新能源资源评估、光伏建设规划和电力优化调度等提供支撑与参考。 相似文献
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建筑设计必须考虑太阳辐射在建筑立面上的热作用,但气象台站仅观测水平面辐射数据,垂直面上的太阳辐射资料稀缺。为提出一种依据水平面辐射观测数据来计算垂直面散射辐射的方法,该文研究并建立辐射观测站,并进行长期辐射观测,积累了一定量的辐射数据。通过对垂直面上散射辐射主要影响因素的分析,提出基于晴空指数Kt和直射辐射与垂直面法线方向夹角φ的垂直面散射辐射计算方法。利用观测数据确定公式中的计算系数,并将该文研究提出的计算方法与国内外的5种太阳散射辐射计算模型进行比较分析。结果表明:1)该文提出的计算方法所需计算参数仅依据国内常规辐射观测数据即可。2)该方法能够实现对不同朝向垂直面散射辐射的计算。3)与国内外常用计算模型相比,该方法在不同天空晴朗度、不同朝向上整体精度更高。研究认为该文方法与国内气象部门的辐射观测数据相匹配,所需计算参数少、精度高、简单易用,可为建筑能耗计算和热环境分析提供新的垂直面散射辐射计算方法。 相似文献
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基于DEM的坡地太阳总辐射估算 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
借鉴国内外计算坡地太阳辐射的方法,利用数字高程模型(DEM)生成了计算山地太阳辐射的地形因子(坡度、坡向、遮蔽度、各向同性可见因子),比现有的模型更准确地计算了晴空下山地太阳总辐射、直接辐射、散射辐射和周围地形的反射辐射,在此基础上分析了坡度、坡向对太阳辐射的影响。 相似文献
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福建省太阳总辐射和地面辐射平衡的分布 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
首先利用福州市的辐射观测资料,建立计算太阳总辐射的经验公式,并计算福建省各市、县的太阳总辐射的年、月平均辐照度。然后利用地区代表站的地面反射率,求得福建省各月、年地面所吸收的太阳辐射能的分布。再利用地面温度、气温、水汽压和总云量,计算得出福建省各地的地面有效辐射的月、年平均辐照度。最后得出福建省各月、年地面辐射平衡的分布。 相似文献
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Data presented here for continuous measurements of global (285-2800?nm) and ultraviolet solar radiation (295-385?nm) are on horizontal level, which have been carried out for three years in Kuwait from January 96 to December 98. The ratio of monthly daily ultraviolet to global solar radiation was found to lie between 4.07% and 5.4%. The highest and lowest intensity monthly-daily recorded values for global radiation were 9.29 and 0.45?Kwh/m2 but for ultraviolet 445 and 31?Wh/m2 respectively. Dependence of the global and ultraviolet solar radiation on the atmospheric humidity was investigated. Linear regression functions were obtained with coefficient of determination R2> 0.7. The decrease in ultraviolet solar radiation from 270 to 240?Wh/m2 justifiably as a result of increasing the chemical pollutants SO2 and NO2. 相似文献
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基于数字高程模型的漳浦样区太阳天文日辐射模拟 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
以地形特征、经纬度位置等作为影响太阳辐射空间分布差异的变量,以漳浦样区为研究区域,在地理信息系统支持下建立样区DEM和太阳天文日辐射值计算模型,探求小区域尺度上地形对太阳天文日辐射空间分布的影响。结果表明:地形对漳浦样区太阳天文日辐射空间分布的影响相当显著,基本上是山谷小、山脊大、阴坡小、阳坡大,高辐射量值主要出现在阳坡。该方法可以快速地获取较为精确的小区域太阳天文日辐射空间分布值,但由于该模型没有考虑云的影响和DEM精度,计算值与实际太阳辐射存在一定偏差,今后研究的方向是以遥感影像为数据源考虑地面状况和云的影响,以期提高模拟精度。 相似文献
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福州城市发展对太阳辐射的影响 总被引:8,自引:2,他引:8
利用福州市日射站1960年至1994年的观测资料,分析了福州城市发展对太阳直接辐射,散射辐射和总辐射的影响,建立了福州市太阳直接辐射和散射辐的10年滑动平均值的年,月趋势方程和年总辐射及其分量与市区人口的相关方程。 相似文献
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