Comparative study of various correlations in estimating hourly diffuse fraction of global solar radiation

Proper design and performance predictions of solar energy systems require accurate information on the availability of solar radiation. The diffuse-to-global solar radiation correlation, originally developed by Liu and Jordan, has been extensively used as the technique providing accurate results, although it is latitude dependent. Thus, in the present study, empirical correlations of this type were developed to establish a relationship between the hourly diffuse fraction (k_d) and the hourly clearness index (k_t) using hourly global and diffuse irradiation measurements on a horizontal surface performed at Athalassa, Cyprus. The proposed correlations were compared against 10 models available in the literature in terms of the widely used statistical indicators, rmse, mbe and t test. From this analysis, it can be concluded that the proposed yearly correlation predicts diffuse values accurately, whereas all candidate models examined appear to be location-independent for diffuse irradiation predictions.     

Comparing diffuse radiation models with one predictor for partitioning incident PAR radiation into its diffuse component in the eastern Mediterranean basin

In the photosynthesis process, solar radiation energy is converted to chemical energy by using atmospheric CO₂. That is, almost all living species depend on energy produced through photosynthesis for their nourishing components thus making photosynthesis vital to the earth's life. Nevertheless, the knowledge of photosynthetic photon flux density Q_P (PAR, 400–700 nm) is important in several applications dealing with plants physiology, biomass production, natural illumination in greenhouses and agricultural research. This study aiming to explore the applicability of several diffuse radiation empirical models, hourly measurements of diffuse PAR and global PAR irradiation collected at Athens (37°N, 23°E, 250 m above MSL) from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2002, are employed. These data were used to establish an empirical model relating the spectral diffuse fraction, k_dP (ratio of the diffuse-to-global PAR) with the fractional transmission of global PAR k_tP (ratio of the global PAR-to-extraterrestrial solar PAR). The performance of the proposed empirical model was further compared with those of twelve other diffuse–global correlation models available in the literature in terms of the widely used statistical indicators mbe, rmse and t-test. From the overall analysis, it can be concluded that the proposed model predicts diffuse PAR values accurately, whereas most of the candidate empirical models examined here appear to be location-independent for the diffuse PAR predictions.     

Evaluation and establishment of diffuse solar radiation models for Bursa,Turkey

The main objective of the present study is to evaluate the applicability of the diffuse solar radiation models from previous studies and establish new models for Bursa. Therefore, 35 regression models from previous studies in the literature are used and categorized as follows: (1) cloudness index is the function of clearness index; (2) cloudness index is the function of relative sunshine duration; (3) the diffuse coefficient is the function of the clearness index; and (4) the diffuse coefficient is the function of the relative sunshine duration. Also, new four diffuse solar radiation models were developed using 1968–2015 long-term global solar radiation and sunshine duration data. The new models are then compared with 35 empirical equations available in previous studies in terms of different statistical tests. Consequently, Models 6 and 8 are found as the most accurate and high-performance empirical models for estimation of the monthly mean diffuse solar radiation on a horizontal surface for Bursa, Turkey.     

Estimation of symmetric and asymmetric hourly global and diffuse radiation from daily values

The validity of the correlations[1–3] to estimate the hourly global and diffuse solar radiation components for an independent dataset of fourteen locations is examined in this article. The correlations for the diffuse component[2,3] are found to be in rather poor agreement with the data. An improved correlation for the diffuse component that includes a daily diffuse fraction as a parameter is developed. The influence of this improved correlation on estimating the beam radiation component is examined. A convenient form of describing asymmetry for these three components of solar radiation distribution is proposed and validated.     

Statistical comparison of models for estimating the monthly average daily diffuse radiation at a subtropical African site

Nine correlations have been developed in this paper to estimate the monthly average diffuse radiation for Dakar, Senegal. A 16-year period data on the global (H) and diffuse (H_d) radiation, together with data on the bright sunshine hours (N), the fraction of the sky’s cloud cover (Ne/8), the water vapour pressure in the air (e) and the ambient temperature (T) have been used for that purpose. A model inter-comparison based on the MBE, RMSE and t statistical tests has shown that estimates in any of the obtained correlations are not significantly different from their measured counterparts, thus all the nine models are recommended for the aforesaid location. Three of them should be particularly selected for their simplicity, universal applicability and high accuracy. Those are simple linear correlations between and , or . Even presenting adequate performance, the remaining correlations are either simple but less accurate, or multiple or nonlinear regressions needing one or two input variables.     

Estimation of global and diffuse radiation at Tripoli

Different correlations were used to predict monthly average global and diffuse radiation on a horizontal surface at Tripoli. The estimated results are then compared with the experimental data for the year 1989–1990. Using statistical tests the RMSE, MBE and MABE to evaluate these correlations, it was found that the Dogeniaux-Lemoin, and the Erbs-Klein and Duffie correlations are the best to predict the global and the diffuse radiation respectively.     

Estimating monthly average daily diffuse solar radiation with multiple predictors: A case study

Solar radiation measurements are not easily available, especially for the diffuse solar radiation. In this study, two models for estimating the diffuse solar radiation are proposed based on multiple predictors including the clearness index, relative sunshine duration, ambient temperature and relative humidity. One of them aims to increase the estimation accuracy, and the other aims to estimate the diffuse solar radiation direct from other meteorological elements in the absence of the global solar radiation. For a case study, the performance of the proposed models is validated by comparing with eight existing models selected from literature against the measured data at Guangzhou station in China. Through the analysis based on statistical error tests, results show that the two models can estimate the monthly average daily diffuse solar radiation with good accuracy.     

Statistical comparison of solar radiation correlations Monthly average global and diffuse radiation on horizontal surfaces

For most solar energy applications, it is necessary to predict the amount of global and diffuse radiation arriving on a horizontal surface at any specified location. Scientists have developed methods to achieve this using different input parameters. The purpose of this study is to compare statistically correlations for estimating the monthly average daily global/diffuse radiation incident on a horizontal surface and to recommend one in each catagory that best fits measured data from a number of locations chosen and is the simplest to use. The effects of using the new solar constant of 1367 W⁻² in these correlations are also investigated. As a result, Rietveld's and Page's correlations are recommended for estimating monthly average daily global and diffuse radiation incident on a horizontal surface, respectively. In addition, these correlations seem to be just as accurate with the new solar constant.     

A brief review of models for computing solar radiation on inclined surfaces

Modelling of solar energy systems requires estimation of the hourly radiation incident on surfaces of different tilts and orientations. Most meteorological stations report radiation values on a daily rather than hourly basis. Again, the value of the diffuse component may or may not be reported. Hence, different strategies may be encountered, for each location, with the common goal of computing hourly radiation on inclined surfaces.

In this study, five different schemes are presented to achieve this goal. In each scheme, certain correlations are required which are discussed in detail. The study is divided into five sections, each dealing with a specific type of correlation. These sections are: (i) correlations between daily diffuse and global radiation; (ii) correlations between hourly/daily global radiation; (iii) correlations between hourly/daily diffuse radiation; (iv) correlations between hourly diffuse and global radiation; and (v) models for computing diffuse sky radiation on inclined surfaces. The last section deals extensively with the anisotropic nature of sky diffuse radiation.

The important aspects of all correlation studies are highlighted, and the relative merits and demerits of their results are brought to light.

Mathematical expressions, where available, for models/correlations are provided so that the reader will have access to a comprehensive study. This information should be useful for modelling purposes in which computation of radiation on surfaces of different orientations and tilts is required.     

Estimating direct, diffuse, and global solar radiation for various cities in Iran by two methods and their comparison with the measured data

Two computational methods for calculating hourly, daily, and monthly average values of direct, diffuse, and global solar radiation on horizontal collectors have been presented in this article for location with different latitude, altitude, and atmospheric conditions in Iran. These methods were developed using two different independent sets of measured data from the Iranian Meteorological Organization (IMO) for two cities in Iran (Tehran and Isfahan) during 14 years of measurement for Tehran and 4 years of measurement for Isfahan. Comparison of calculated monthly average global solar radiation, using the two models for Tehran and Isfahan with measured data from the IMO, has indicated a good agreement between them. Then these developed methods were extended to another location (city of Bandar-Abbas), where measured data are not available. But the work of Daneshyar [1] predicts its monthly global radiation. The maximum discrepancy of 7% between the developed models and the work of Daneshyar [1] was observed.     

ESTIMATING THE DIFFUSE FRACTION OF HOURLY GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

Several years of hourly diffuse and global radiation data, reported for five Southern African locations, are used to establish a relationship between hourly diffuse fraction D_h/G_h and the hourly clearness index (K_T). This relationship is compared to the correlations established by Orgill and Hollands (Solar Energy, 19, 357, 1977) and by Bruno (Solar Energy, 20, 97, 1978) and also to a set of measured data from one location in South Africa. The remarkable agreement between the present model and the measured data suggests the wide applicability of the correlation to locations in the Southern African region. However, there is no agreement between the measured diffuse radiation fraction and those estimated from the models suggested by Orgill and Hollands and by Bruno. The developed correlation is also tested for its applicability to Lesotho by calculating hourly diffuse irradiation for one station in the country and comparing them with available data.     

Estimation of monthly mean daily diffuse radiation in China

In this study, several equations are employed to estimate monthly mean daily diffuse solar radiation for eight typical meteorological stations in China. Estimated values are compared with measured values in terms of statistical error tests such as mean percentage error (MPE), mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE). All the models fit the data adequately and can be used to estimate monthly mean daily diffuse solar radiation from global solar radiation and sunshine hours. This study finds that the quadratic model performed better than the other models:     

On the diffuse fraction of daily and monthly global radiation for the island of Cyprus

Six years of hourly global and diffuse irradiation measurements on a horizontal surface performed at Athalassa, Cyprus, are used to establish a relationship between the daily diffuse fraction and the daily clearness index. Two types of correlations—yearly and seasonal—have been developed. These correlations, of first and third order in the clearness index are compared to the various correlations established by Collares-Pereira and Rabl (1979), Newland (1989), Erbs et al. (1982), Rao et al. (1984), Page (1961), Liu and Jordan (1960) and Lalas et al. (1987). The comparison has been performed in terms of the widely used statistical indicators (MBE) and (RMSE) errors: an additional statistical indicator, the t-statistic, combining the earlier indicators, is introduced. The results indicate that the proposed yearly correlation matches the earlier correlations quite closely and all correlations examined yield results that are statistically significant. For large values, most of the earlier correlations exhibit a slight tendency to systematically overstimate the diffuse fraction. This marginal disagreement between the earlier correlations and the proposed model is probably significantly affected by the clear sky conditions that prevail over Cyprus for most of the time as well as atmospheric humidity content. It is clear that the standard correlations examined in this analysis appear to be location-independent models for diffuse irradiation predictions, at least for the Cyprus case.     

Modelling of diffuse solar fraction with multiple predictors

For some locations both global and diffuse solar radiation are measured. However, for many locations, only global radiation is measured, or inferred from satellite data. For modelling solar energy applications, the amount of radiation on a tilted surface is needed. Since only the direct component on a tilted surface can be calculated from direct on some other plane using trigonometry, we need to have diffuse radiation on the horizontal plane available. There are regression relationships for estimating the diffuse on a tilted surface from diffuse on the horizontal. Models for estimating the diffuse on the horizontal from horizontal global that have been developed in Europe or North America have proved to be inadequate for Australia [13]. Boland et al. [2] developed a validated model for Australian conditions. Boland et al. [3] detailed our recent advances in developing the theoretical framework for the use of the logistic function instead of piecewise linear or simple nonlinear functions and was the first step in identifying the means for developing a generic model for estimating diffuse from global and other predictors. We have developed a multiple predictor model, which is much simpler than previous models, and uses hourly clearness index, daily clearness index, solar altitude, apparent solar time and a measure of persistence of global radiation level as predictors. This model performs marginally better than currently used models for locations in the Northern Hemisphere and substantially better for Southern Hemisphere locations. We suggest it can be used as a universal model.     

On the optimum exposure of flat-plate fixed solar collectors

With the increasing range and scale of applications of solar energy conversion systems a detailed knowledge of the available solar fluxes on surfaces of various tilt and slope aspect is required. The widely used engineering routines for siting and exposing of solar collector arrays may not always be consistent with the maximum available solar energy income. In the present study a computational algorithm is proposed suitable for the calculation of optimum tilt angles of a solar collector, receiving the maximum insolation for given values of direct beam, global and diffuse radiation, and given surface reflectivity. Formulas are derived also for the calculation of optimum tilt angles yielding maximum daily insolation for each month of the year. The dependence of the optimum tilt angle on the diffuse-to-global radiation ratio, as well as on the surface reflectivity is evaluated.     

Prediction of hourly diffuse solar radiation from measured hourly global radiation on a horizontal surface

A statistical procedure has been employed to develop correlations between the hourly global horizontal radiation and its diffuse component. Several years', hourly radiation data from three Canadian stations and two French stations have been employed for this purpose. The relationships have been developed in dimensionless form which predict for particular solar altitudes when is given.Under heavily cloudy conditions or when the sky is completely covered ( ), diffuse radiation increases linearly with the global radiation. In this region, solar altitude has no bearing on the fraction of diffuse radiation.As goes beyond 0.35, the effect of solar altitude begins to appear and the region immediately following this may be considered as partly-cloudy-skies conditions. In the beginning of this region, the diffuse component increases briefly with the increase in global radiation and then begins to decrease as the partly cloudy skies become clearer. At particular solar altitudes, a minimum value of the diffuse radiation is reached. The value of where reaches its minimum value varies with solar altitude.The region beyond which a minimum value of is reached may be considered as mainly-clear-sky conditions. In this region, increases again with , lower solar altitudes giving a higher percentage of diffuse radiation.Under partly cloudy skies and under clear skies, solar altitudes lower than 30° had a marked effect on the fraction of diffuse radiation. However, solar altitudes greater than 30° had minimal influence on the fraction of diffuse radiation.     

Estimation of hourly solar radiation for India

The ASHRAE constants predict high values of the hourly beam radiation and very low values of the hourly diffuse radiation when used to predict radiation at Indian locations. Hence a procedure has been developed for the estimation of direct, diffuse and global hourly solar radiation on a horizontal surface for any location in India. To calculate hourly solar radiation, an exponential curve, similar to the one used by ASHRAE, was fitted to the measured solar radiation data of six cities from different regions of India. The statistical analysis was carried out for the data computed using ASHRAE constants and the set of constants obtained for India using the measured data of four different Indian cities selected randomly. Three statistical indicators were used to compare the accuracy of the developed procedure. The results show that ASHRAE constants are not suitable to estimate hourly solar radiation in India. Hourly solar radiation estimated by constants obtained for India are fairly comparable with measured data. The mean percentage error with Indian constants for these four Indian cities was found as low as 2.27, −6.29 and −6.09% for hourly beam, diffuse and global radiation, respectively.     

An assessment of the solar radiation climate of the Cyprus environment

The solar radiation climate of Athalassa, Cyprus, is reported upon in detail. The database utilized in this analysis consisted of daily global and diffuse radiation on a horizontal surface, and global radiation on tilted surfaces, together with the calculated daily values of horizontal beam radiation. In addition, the data reported here include maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity and percentage of possible sunshine. Monthly average hourly global and diffuse radiation for the time interval 5 a.m.–7 p.m. are reported and analyzed. The annual means of the daily global, diffuse and beam solar radiation on a horizontal surface are about 17.26, 5.75 and 12.35 MJ m⁻², respectively. The average monthly fraction of daily horizontal global radiation that is beam radiation varies from 0.61 in February to 0.77 in September. The average monthly clearness index varies from 0.636 in July to 0.491 in December, whereas the ratio of diffuse to global radiation varies from 0.494 in February to 0.257 in July. The solar radiation climate of the Cyprus environs has also been compared to those reported for two neighbouring countries. We conclude, based upon the above analysis, that Athalassa and its environs are characterized on average, by relatively high daily irradiation rates, both global and beam, and a relatively high percentage of clear days.     

Global solar irradiance in Cordoba: Clearness index distributions conditioned to the optical air mass

The biological and photochemical effects of solar radiation and solar energy applications make it really important to characterize the variability of this component. In view of the fact that the clearness index indicates not only the level of availability of solar radiation but also the changes in atmospheric conditions in a given location, since the classic Liu and Jordan study, many papers have dealt with its statistical distribution. Specifically, Tovar et al. [Tovar J, Olmo FJ, Alados-Arboledas L. Solar Energy 1998;62(6):387–393] proposed a model to represent the probability density distributions of the instantaneous clearness index conditioned to the optical air mass from measurements recorded in Granada (Spain). In this work, we have proved the applicability of this model in a different location, Cordoba (Spain), finding that the parameters for fitting the model depend on both the optical air mass and the geographic and climatic conditions.     

Solar radiation correlations for the Athens,Greece, area

In the present study, correlations of the solar radiation for the Athens area are provided, based on hourly measurements over the period 1955–1980. These correlations are of two kinds: The first, which provide the average total radiation incident on a horizontal surface in terms of hour, day, and month of the typical year, is suitable for solar energy collection applications. The correlations of the second kind provide the maximum radiation and are suitable for use in the design of air-conditioning installations or other applications requiring knowledge of maximum values. The correlations of this kind are based on the calculation of the solar constants A, B, and C, i.e. the “apparent solar irradiation at zero air mass,” the “atmospheric extinction coefficient,” and the “diffuse radiation factor,” respectively. These solar constants permit the calculation of the maximum direct normal radiation and of the maximum diffuse radiation as well as of the total radiation on surfaces of various orientations and inclinations. The solar heat gain through fenestration of various orientations (needed in air-conditioning applications) is calculated, as an example of the applications of the solar constants A, B, and C.