基于ELES模型的城镇居民生活用水水价支付能力研究——以北京市为例

本文从支付能力的角度,根据计量经济学的需求函数理论,以我国城镇居民消费支出结构数据为基础,提出了应用扩展线性支出系统(ELES)模型,分析城镇居民生活用水水价支付能力。以北京市为例,采用1998～2004年截面数据资料,计算分析了不同时期居民用水需求与水费支出水平、居民用水的边际消费倾向、需求收入弹性以及不同收入户的用水基本需求等,以此定量研究了北京市城镇居民生活用水水价的支付能力。研究结果表明:平均收入水平下,居民对水价具有一定的支付能力,其基本用水需求均能得到满足;可支配收入增长对居民用水需求的影响不大;北京市生活用水水价还有上调的空间,但低收入户的水价支付能力有限,是重点考虑的对象。     

陕西省城镇居民用水状况调查研究

陕西是一个缺水大省,并且城镇居民用水存在较严重的浪费现象。为了掌握城镇居民的用水量和用水规律,满足城镇供水系统设计、运行、管理的需要,对陕西省城镇居民用水状况进行了调查研究。调查研究内容包括：家庭成员文化程度、家庭组成、家庭月收入、家庭用水量及水费支出情况等。调查结果表明：陕西省城镇供水水价平均为2.142元/t,家庭水费支出占家庭收入的0.63%,由于水费支出比例低,城镇居民节水意识不强,水价仍有提高空间。提出了促进城镇居民节约用水的措施。     

西安市城镇居民阶梯水价优化及节水效果研究

阶梯水价对于抑制城镇居民不合理用水具有重要现实意义。为了更好地发挥其杠杆作用,分析了西安市现行阶梯水价情况,采用供求关系定价模型,测算了2000—2020年水价、人均用水量及人均可支配收入的相关性和弹性系数,从用水量标准、居民接受度、加大阶梯水价级差、水费支出系数角度设计了4种阶梯水价优化方案,分析其节水效果,预测了未来几年水费支出系数。结果表明：西安市水费支出系数较小,阶梯水价应适当提高;水价、人均用水量与人均可支配收入存在显著的相关性,水价和人均可支配收入的弹性系数分别为-0.476、0.329;4种阶梯水价优化方案的一阶水价提升范围为0.71~1.30元/m³,均能在不同程度发挥节水作用,其中方案4阶梯水价提升幅度最高,节水效果最佳,方案1和方案3从城市居民生活用水标准出发,适度提高水价,节水效果居中,方案2阶梯水价及水量调整幅度较小,节水效果较差;长期保持同一水价,水费支出系数会逐渐减少。研究成果可为城镇居民阶梯水价改革提供参考。     

北京市城市居民生活用水水价承受能力预测

对北京市1999年以来不同收入水平城市居民的生活用水水费负担情况进行了分析,并在对北京市中低收入户人均可支配收入、水费支出系数进行预测的基础上,对北京市2010年、2015年和2020年的城市居民生活用水综合水价承受能力进行了预测,为北京市水价的调整提供参考。     

城镇居民生活用水的需水函数分析和水价节水效果评估

结合北京市统计数据分析表明，城镇居民人均年生活用水量与居民生活用水购买力系数（居民可支配收入与生活用水水价的比值）关系十分显著，本文在此基础上．探讨并建立了城镇居民生活用水的需求函数和水价节水效果的评估方法。实例测算结果表明，北京市城镇居民生活用水购买力系数的边际弹性为0．38．亦即北京市城镇居民生活用水购买力降低1％，城镇居民生活用水量减少0．38％；提高水价具有显著的节水效果，“十五”期间北京市城镇居民用水的水价累计节水量达到了0．9亿m^3，人均年节水量2m^3；现状北京市不同收入人群城镇居民水费支出占可支配收入的比例均小于1．0％，低于国际通行的评判可承受标准值2．5％，表明北京市城镇居民对水价承受能力比较大，水价仍有较大上升空间。     

北京市水价变化与居民承受能力分析

北京市居民生活用自来水价格在1990—2004年期间共上调了9次．在消除了通货膨胀（或通货紧缩）的影响后。水价年均上涨幅度为24．4％。据《21世纪初期首都水资源可持续利用规划总报告》规划，北京市水价今后还将进一步上涨。1990年北京市水费支出占人均可支配收入的比重为0．24％。2005年预计将达到1．4％，而低收入家庭预计将达到3．6％，水费支出占人均可支配收入比重将提高约6倍。随着城市用电、取暖等公用事业价格的普遍上涨，作为生活必需品的水，其价格进一步上涨必须考虑居民的经济承受能力。参照国外城市水费支出占总收入比重3％-5％的经验．北京市水价还有上涨的空间．但水价的上调必须考虑对低收入家庭的影响．     

南水北调中线工程用水户水价承受能力分析

根据南水北调工程近期供水的目标,对工程受水区各主要城市居民生活用水和工业用水的水价承受能力进行了分析。结果表明,目前受水区各主要城市居民生活用水和工业用水的水价总体偏低,有较大提价空间;但各省市最低收入居民对测算的中等收入居民的生活用水水价较难承受,建议建立定额用水制度,在总体水价不降低的前提下减少低收入群体的水费支出。     

RBF神经网络在阿拉尔垦区需水预测中的应用

利用RBF神经网络,建立了阿拉尔垦区需水量预测模型。选取农业用水灌溉定额、工业用水重复利用率、城镇生活人均日需水量、农村生活人均日需水量作为模型输入,农业、工业、城镇生活、农村生活需水量作为输出。将2001—2007年用水量数据作为训练样本,用2008—2009年用水量数据对模型进行检验。在农业、工业、城镇生活、农村生活4类需水量中,2009年工业需水量预测的相对误差最大,为-16.24%,总需水量的最大误差仅为1.80%,取得了较满意的结果,表明RBF神经网络模型用于该区需水量预测是可行的。     

宁夏农村生活用水定额预测

为探明宁夏农村居民生活用水量和生活水平的关系,统计分析了近十几年宁夏的农村人均可支配收入和农村人均用水量的散点图,用平方逼近作拟合曲线并分析其相关关系。分析表明,农村居民生活人均用水量会随着农村人均可支配收入的增加而增加,但增长趋势会逐渐变缓直到达到当前收入水平下的用水方式对应的用水量的上限。当收入增长至下一个阶段,居民生活用水方式发生改变,人均用水量才会进一步增加。农村居民生活用水定额随着收入的增长而增长,不断接近城市用水定额并最终和城市用水定额相同。     

上海市城镇居民生活用水需求弹性分析

通过用水量弹性系数的计算,分析了上海市城镇居民生活用水量与水价、收入的关系。结果表明,2005~2015年期间用水量价格弹性系数为-0.160±0.016,收入弹性系数为0.015±0.011,表明水价和收入与用水量关系并不紧密。居民人均日生活用水量在110~120L/(人·d),低于《城市居民生活用水量标准》(GB/T 50331-2002)下限值。由于存在刚性需求,下降空间有限。而居民水费支出占可支配收入的比值较低(0.5%),也是一个重要的因素。阶梯水价制度仍需进一步完善。     

Assessing and Modelling the Influence of Household Characteristics on Per Capita Water Consumption

Sustainable urban water supply management requires, ideally, accurate evidence based estimations on per capita consumption and a good understanding of the factors influencing the consumption. The information can then be used to achieve improved water demand forecasts. Water consumption patterns in the developed countries have been extensively investigated. However, very little is known for the developing world. This paper investigates per capita water consumption resulting from water use activities in different types of households typically found in urban areas of the developing world. A data collection programme was executed for 407 households to extract information on household characteristics, water user behaviour and intensity and the nature of indoor and outdoor water use activities. The rigorous statistical analysis of the data shows that per capita water consumption increases with income: 241, 272 and 290 l/capita/day for low, medium and high income households, respectively. Additionally, the results suggest that per capita consumption increases with the number of adult female members in the household and almost one-third of consumption is via taps. The collected data has been used to develop statistical models using two different regression techniques: multiple linear (STEPWISE) and evolutionary polynomial regression (EPR). The inclusion of demographic parameters in the developed models considerably improved the prediction accuracy. Two of the best performing models are used to forecast the water demand for the city, using four future scenarios: market forces, fortress world, policy reform and great transition. The results suggest that the domestic water demand would be highest in the fortress world scenario due to the increase in population and size of built-up area.     

Thai Rural Domestic Water Consumption: A Case Study of a Village Community With No Organized Water Supply System

ABSTRACT

Thai rural domestic water consumption of 282 households for 59 villages in Amphoe Nong Sua, Pathum Thani Province, Thailand, is examined in this study. The paper describes the pattern of rural domestic water use and evaluates the factors which affect per capita rural water consumption. Stepwise regression analysis was applied to assess the variables which were postulated to be associated with per capita rural water consumption. The variables that were found to be significantly associated with per capita rural water consumption were household size, average household age, level of education, average household income and number of baths per day.     

Urban Household Water Demand in Beijing by 2020: An Agent-Based Model

Beijing is faced with severe water scarcity due to rapid socio-economic development and population expansion, and a guideline for water regulation has been released to control the volume of national water use. To cope with water shortage and meet regulation goal, it has great significance to study the variations of water demand. In this paper, an agent-based model named HWDP is developed for the prediction of urban household water demand in Beijing. The model involves stochastic behaviors and feedbacks caused by two agent roles which are government agent and household agent. The government agent adopts economic and propagandist means to make household agent optimize its water consumption. Additionally, the consumption is also affected by the basic water demand deduced from extended linear expenditure system. The results indicate that the total water demand of urban households in Beijing will increase to 317.5 million cubic meters by 2020, while the water price keeps growing at a low level. However, it would drop to 294.9 million cubic meters with high growth of water price and low increment in per capita disposable income. Finally, some policy recommendations on water regulation are made.     

Factors Influencing Per Capita Water Consumption In Urban Areas Of Developing Countries And Their Implications For Management,With Special Reference To The Khartoum Metropolitan Area

ABSRTACT

The fast growing population in Third World countries and the limited physical resources in rural areas have led to the dramatic expansion of the urban areas of these countries. It is now recognized that when planning for the development of these areas, early consideration must be given to the difficulties and cost of providing potable water equitably to all users. Detailed studies are necessary for particular situations so as to provide a basis for better management practices.

Khartoum, a growing urban area in Sudan, has been chosen as a case study. A proposed framework and technique of analysis is shown. Factors influencingper capita consumption are correlated and mathematical models have been generated for the two distinct classifictions of consumers: (1) consumers with piped supply and (2) consumers obtaining water from water vendors or from standpipes (squatter settlements).

The most significant factors affecting the consumption appear in the fitted equations. Of these factors, the number of occupants in the household influences the per capita consumption but at a decreasing rate. Price has a significant impact on demand: price elasticities of about -0.60 and -0.78 are obtained for households with piped connections and squatter areas respectively. Water utility authorities can use price as a tool to ration or discourage water consumption in the piped connection households and to increase the rate of consumption in the squatter areas.     

Energy for freshwater supply,use and disposal in the Netherlands: a case study of Dutch households

Abstract

This study presents energy requirements for Dutch household water: 10.2 GJ per capita per year, which includes 9.3 GJ (92%) for heating water, 0.6 GJ (6%) for water supply, and 0.2 GJ for wastewater treatment (2%). The top three energy consumers include shower water (58%), dishwasher water (9%) and washing machine water (8%). The Netherlands, a water-abundant country, expends far more energy to heat water for households than to supply municipal water, or to treat and dispose of wastewater. Policies to make water chains more sustainable should focus on use, rather than supply and disposal.     

Calculating Price Elasticity of Water Demand Using Gene Expression Programming Based on Economic,Social and Meteorological Variables

Determining the changing rate of water consumption through altering parameters such as water tariffs can help water companies select appropriate water policies. This paper is intended to find the proper relation between the water price elasticity of demand and some social, economic and climatic variables that are released annually by international organizations like the United Nations Development Program and the World Bank. By using genetic algorithm, different combinations of water price elasticity of demand and variables like gross domestic product, per capita gross domestic product, gross national income, precipitation, human development index, average temperature and household size have been analyzed. It was found that the absolute price elasticity of water demand has positive relationships with precipitation and price of water. It has also been found that the gross national income, average percent of consumers who have secondary education and human development index have a negative relation with the absolute price elasticity of water demand.

     

Thirsty slums in African cities: household water insecurity in urban informal settlements of Lilongwe,Malawi

ABSTRACT

Over 70% of Malawi’s urban population lives in informal settlements, where households regularly face chronic water insecurity. This article utilizes mixed methods – household surveys (N = 645), field observations, focus groups and interviews – to examine household water insecurity in three urban informal settlements of Lilongwe, Malawi’s capital and largest city. The study finds that water insecurity arises from overdependence on communal water kiosks which are insufficient in number, have high nonfunctional rates, are prone to vandalism, and provide water irregularly; lack of alternative improved water sources; and a significant time burden due to long waiting times and multiple trips to water sources. The findings underscore why water insecurity in Africa’s urban informal settlements deserves urgent policy attention.     

ARIMA模型在人均生活用水量预测中的应用

随着生活用水量需求的日益增加,对于人均生活用水量的合理预测成为城市给水规划的关键。以上海市1949-2003年的人均生活用水量统计资料为依据,利用SPSS11．5软件的ARIMA模型功能对上海市短期人均生活用水量进行预测。该模型的缺点是只能对人均生活用水量数据做短期预测,对于长期预测,由于不确定性的增加,结果的偏差将有所增加。