Building a better future: An exploration of beliefs about climate change and perceived need for adaptation within the building industry

The present research explored beliefs about climate change among an important yet relatively understudied population: representatives of the building industry. We also assessed the perceived adequacy of current climate-related actions within the industry and the perceived need for developing new practices. The results of a survey administered within a large engineering firm suggest a fairly high level of concern about climate issues within this sector: participants perceived climate change to be an important issue, current practices to be inadequate, and a need to develop new ways of addressing climate change. Despite this, there was notable and consequential variability in how participants thought about climate change. Higher levels of seniority were associated with greater satisfaction with current practices, and the belief that climate change was a natural rather than man-made phenomena was associated with a reduced support for the idea that changes to current practices were necessary. In addition, when thinking about climate relevant actions (whether current practices or the alternatives) participants focussed almost exclusively on mitigation rather than adaptation. The implications of these patterns for innovation around climate change within the building industry are discussed.     

Contributions of meteorology to the phenology of cyanobacterial blooms: implications for future climate change

Cyanobacterial blooms are often a result of eutrophication. Recently, however, their expansion has also been found to be associated with changes in climate. To elucidate the effects of climatic variables on the expansion of cyanobacterial blooms in Taihu, China, we analyzed the relationships between climatic variables and bloom events which were retrieved by satellite images. We then assessed the contribution of each climate variable to the phenology of blooms using multiple regression models. Our study demonstrates that retrieving ecological information from satellite images is meritorious for large-scale and long-term ecological research in freshwater ecosystems. Our results show that the phenological changes of blooms at an inter-annual scale are strongly linked to climate in Taihu during the past 23 yr. Cyanobacterial blooms occur earlier and last longer with the increase of temperature, sunshine hours, and global radiation and the decrease of wind speed. Furthermore, the duration increases when the daily averages of maximum, mean, and minimum temperature each exceed 20.3 °C, 16.7 °C, and 13.7 °C, respectively. Among these factors, sunshine hours and wind speed are the primary contributors to the onset of the blooms, explaining 84.6% of their variability over the past 23 yr. These factors are also good predictors of the variability in the duration of annual blooms and determined 58.9% of the variability in this parameter. Our results indicate that when nutrients are in sufficiently high quantities to sustain the formation of cyanobacterial blooms, climatic variables become crucial in predicting cyanobacterial bloom events. Climate changes should be considered when we evaluate how much the amount of nutrients should be reduced in Taihu for lake management.     

Preparation of future weather data to study the impact of climate change on buildings

The dynamic interaction between building systems and external climate is extremely complex, involving a large number of difficult-to-predict variables. In order to study the impact of climate change on the built environment, the use of building simulation techniques together with forecast weather data are often necessary. Since most of building simulation programs require hourly meteorological input data for their thermal comfort and energy evaluation, the provision of suitable weather data becomes critical. In this paper, the methods used to prepare future weather data for the study of the impact of climate change are reviewed. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed. The inherent relationship between these methods is also illustrated. Based on these discussions and the analysis of Australian historic climatic data, an effective framework and procedure to generate future hourly weather data is presented. It is shown that this method is not only able to deal with different levels of available information regarding the climate change, but also can retain the key characters of a “typical” year weather data for a desired period.     

Brazilian policies on climate change: The missing link to cities

This paper criticizes the progress of the Brazilian government in preventing greenhouse gas emissions originating in urban areas. In 2009, Brazil approved its “National Policy on Climate Change”, complementing the 2008s National Plan on Climate Change (NPCC). In these documents, the federal government established measures to be undertaken in order to reduce greenhouse gases emissions, focusing on deforestation.However, the federal government should have regulated urban emissions, since the present Brazilian urbanization context, with big metropolises and the gradual migration of the population to the suburbs, represents a burden on climate change. With this new reality, transport and electricity use tend to grow, with the consequent increase in emissions.On the other hand, the municipalities are responsible for most city planning and transportation policies in Brazil. Pressed by their daily needs, they show little concern towards climate change and do not include the regulation of major sources of emissions among their priorities. Consequently, the municipalities are inefficient in preventing climate change. There are two main explanations for that: they do not have the know-how to prevent emissions; and they do not share this political agenda, since the impact of climate change is seldom acknowledged in the city where the emissions occur. Therefore, the central government has a role to play in regulating urban emissions. The study concludes that the National Plan and the National Policy, being federal documents, should have addressed urban emissions throughout the nation. Ultimately, they should be revised to guide city planners into planning greener cities. In order to succeed in this task, this legislation should not only require the reduction of emissions, but it should also indicate to the municipalities how they might achieve the reduction.     

A review of the impact of climate change on future nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK

This paper reviews the potential impacts of climate change on nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK using a Source-Pathway-Receptor framework. Changes in temperature, precipitation quantity and distribution, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will affect the agricultural nitrate source term through changes in both soil processes and agricultural productivity. Non-agricultural source terms, such as urban areas and atmospheric deposition, are also expected to be affected. The implications for the rate of nitrate leaching to groundwater as a result of these changes are not yet fully understood but predictions suggest that leaching rate may increase under future climate scenarios. Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle with changes to recharge, groundwater levels and resources and flow processes. These changes will impact on concentrations of nitrate in abstracted water and other receptors, such as surface water and groundwater-fed wetlands. The implications for nitrate leaching to groundwater as a result of climate changes are not yet well enough understood to be able to make useful predictions without more site-specific data. The few studies which address the whole cycle show likely changes in nitrate leaching ranging from limited increases to a possible doubling of aquifer concentrations by 2100. These changes may be masked by nitrate reductions from improved agricultural practices, but a range of adaption measures need to be identified. Future impact may also be driven by economic responses to climate change.     

Developing future hourly weather files for studying the impact of climate change on building energy performance in Hong Kong

The concern on climate change leads to growing demand for minimization of energy use. As building is one of the largest energy consuming sectors, it is essential to study the impact of climate change on building energy performance. In this regard, building energy simulation software is a useful tool. A set of appropriate typical weather files is one of the key factors towards successful building energy simulation. This paper reports the work of developing a set of weather data files for subtropical Hong Kong, taking into the effect of future climate change. Projected monthly mean climate changes from a selected General Circulation Model for three future periods under two emission scenarios were integrated into an existing typical meteorological year weather file by a morphing method. Through this work, six sets of future weather files for subtropical Hong Kong were produced. A typical office building and a residential flat were modeled using building simulation program EnergyPlus. Hourly building energy simulations were carried out. The simulated results indicate that there will be substantial increase in A/C energy consumption under the impact of future climate change, ranging from 2.6% to 14.3% and from 3.7% to 24% for office building and residential flat, respectively.     

Investigation of climate change impacts on flow regime in the Lucas Creek catchment using multiple CMIP5 ensembles

ABSTRACT

Climate change is projected to affect the flow regime in urban waterways adversely. This study investigates the climate change impacts on the flow regime in the Lucas Creek catchment under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Flow Duration Curves (FDCs) and Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) methods are used to assess flow regime variations. Results of FDCs show a maximum rise of 370% in peak flow under RCP 4.5 however, low flow increases by 40%. Monthly streamflow increases up to 380% except for October and December. Similarly, the majority of the IHA parameters also show at least a 10% increase in their magnitudes under RCP 8.5. However, some parameters such as high pulse duration and rise rate decrease by 50% under RCP 4.5. The catchment would mainly suffer severe impact variations under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in the future.     

Floods,cyclones, drought and climate change in Bangladesh: a reality check

This paper seeks to correct prevailing assumptions about Bangladesh’s susceptibility to floods, tropical cyclones and drought, and the extent to which global warming has already affected the country’s climate. Analysis of 50 years of the country’s climate and hydrological data showed no evidence that rainfall amounts have changed or that floods, tropical cyclones and droughts have increased in frequency or severity. The extent to which global warming might have affected temperatures is made uncertain by the probably greater impact on temperatures at recording stations of widespread changes in land use and the heat-island effect resulting from urban expansion around the stations. The paper reviews both the diversity of environments in Bangladesh’s coastal area exposed to sea-level rise and the possible mitigation methods. Two major conclusions are drawn: that population increase and rapid urbanisation pose more serious immediate problems for development planning in Bangladesh than climate change; and that education at all levels needs to include practical field studies that could provide all students with a better understanding of the country’s diverse and locally complex environments.     

The role of learning and knowledge in adapting to climate change: a case study of Norwegian municipalities

Coping with climate change includes the role of learning and knowledge. Taking a process perspective, this article analyses how municipal officers in the Oslo region of Norway are acquiring knowledge and building competence for adapting to climate change. The article illustrates the interaction between elements of experiential learning, transformative learning and social learning as bases for adapting to emerging climate changes; each being necessary and none alone being sufficient. Their importance differs according to how profound the changes in knowledge and competence are. Experiential learning and transformative learning are stronger under single-loop learning whereas social learning might emerge as more important under triple-loop learning. Because of the uncertainties of climate change, the central government might be wise not to issue detailed regulations for adaptation by municipalities.     

Climate change induced salinisation of artificial lakes in the Netherlands and consequences for drinking water production

In this paper we present a modelling study to investigate the impacts of climate change on the chloride concentration and salinisation processes in two man-made freshwater lakes in the Netherlands, Lake IJsselmeer and Lake Markermeer. We used a transient compartmental chloride and water balance model to elucidate the salinisation processes occurring under present conditions and assess future salinisation under two climate forcing scenarios. The model results showed that the Rhine River is the dominant determinant for the chloride concentration in both lakes, followed by drainage of brackish groundwater from the surrounding polders. The results further show that especially during dry years, seawater intrusion through the tidal closure dam is an important source of chloride to Lake IJsselmeer. The results from the climatic forcing scenarios show that Lake IJsselmeer is especially vulnerable to climate-induced salinisation whereas effects on Lake Markermeer are relatively small. Peak chloride concentrations at the raw water intake of the Andijk drinking water facility on Lake IJsselmeer are projected to increase to values above 250 mg/l in the most far-reaching climate change scenario W+ in 2050 for dry years. This is well above the maximum allowable concentration of 150 mg/l for chloride in drinking water.Modelling showed that climate change impacts the chloride concentrations in a variety of ways: 1) an increasing occurrence of low river flows from summer to autumn reduces the dilution of the chloride that is emitted to the Rhine with a constant load thereby increasing its concentration; 2) increased open water evaporation and reduced rainfall during summer periods and droughts increases the chloride concentration in the water; and 3) rises in sea level increase seawater intrusion through the tidal closure dam of Lake IJsselmeer. The processes described here are likely to affect many other tidal rivers or lakes and should be considered when planning future raw water intake stations for drinking water production or agricultural water supply.     

Local development and climate protection: a case study from Alaska

Resolution of conflicts between local development and protection of the global climate is difficult. In the United States, policies in the energy‐rich state of Alaska favour development of resources rather than protection, and, further, most state policies are not based on jurisprudence principles that consider the problem of global climate change. In our article, we describe a proposal to develop a large coal strip mine that raises conflicts between local development and protection of the global climate. We suggest that application of the Public Trust Doctrine might better protect the global climate. We believe our study has import for similar situations elsewhere.     

The British river of the future: How climate change and human activity might affect two contrasting river ecosystems in England

The possible effects of changing climate on a southern and a north-eastern English river (the Thames and the Yorkshire Ouse, respectively) were examined in relation to water and ecological quality throughout the food web. The CLASSIC hydrological model, driven by output from the Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3), based on IPCC low and high CO₂ emission scenarios for 2080 were used as the basis for the analysis. Compared to current conditions, the CLASSIC model predicted lower flows for both rivers, in all seasons except winter. Such an outcome would lead to longer residence times (by up to a month in the Thames), with nutrient, organic and biological contaminant concentrations elevated by 70-100% pro-rata, assuming sewage treatment effectiveness remains unchanged. Greater opportunities for phytoplankton growth will arise, and this may be significant in the Thames. Warmer winters and milder springs will favour riverine birds and increase the recruitment of many coarse fish species. However, warm, slow-flowing, shallower water would increase the incidence of fish diseases. These changing conditions would make southern UK rivers in general a less favourable habitat for some species of fish, such as the Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Accidental or deliberate, introductions of alien macrophytes and fish may change the range of species in the rivers. In some areas, it is possible that a concurrence of different pressures may give rise to the temporary loss of ecosystem services, such as providing acceptable quality water for humans and industry. An increasing demand for water in southern England due to an expanding population, a possibly reduced flow due to climate change, together with the Water Framework Directive obligation to maintain water quality, will put extreme pressure on river ecosystems, such as the Thames.     

Effects of climate change on the wash-off of volatile organic compounds from urban roads

The predicted changes in rainfall characteristics due to climate change could adversely affect stormwater quality in highly urbanised coastal areas throughout the world. This in turn will exert a significant influence on the discharge of pollutants to estuarine and marine waters. Hence, an in-depth analysis of the effects of such changes on the wash-off of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from urban roads in the Gold Coast region in Australia was undertaken. The rainfall characteristics were simulated using a rainfall simulator. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Multicriteria Decision tools such as PROMETHEE and GAIA were employed to understand the VOC wash-off under climate change. It was found that low, low to moderate and high rain events due to climate change will affect the wash-off of toluene, ethylbenzene, meta-xylene, para-xylene and ortho-xylene from urban roads in Gold Coast. Total organic carbon (TOC) was identified as predominant carrier of toluene, meta-xylene and para-xylene in < 1 μm to 150 μm fractions and for ethylbenzene in 150 μm to > 300 μm fractions under such dominant rain events due to climate change. However, ortho-xylene did not show such affinity towards either TOC or TSS (total suspended solids) under the simulated climatic conditions.     

The impact of climate change on aquatic risk from agricultural pesticides in the US

We investigate how climate change may affect the acute and chronic toxicity risk to aquatic species from agricultural pesticides in 32 States of the US. We combine climate change projections from the Canadian and Hadley climate model, statistically estimated relationships between pesticide applications and climate and weather variables, and the environmental risk indicator REXTOX developed by the OECD. On average, we find that climate change is likely to increase the toxicity risk to aquatic species by 47% because of increased applications of agricultural pesticides. Daphnia and fish are more affected than algae. Across eight broad crop groups, pesticides used on pome and stone fruits and on fruiting vegetables contribute the most to aquatic risk. Within the 32 US States examined, more than 90% of the pesticide pollution impacts induced by climate change on the aquatic environment are caused by only 13 States near to the coast.     

Water and heat transport in boreal soils: implications for soil response to climate change

Soil water content strongly affects permafrost dynamics by changing the soil thermal properties. However, the movement of liquid water, which plays an important role in the heat transport of temperate soils, has been under-represented in boreal studies. Two different heat transport models with and without convective heat transport were compared to measurements of soil temperatures in four boreal sites with different stand ages and drainage classes. Overall, soil temperatures during the growing season tended to be over-estimated by 2-4 °C when movement of liquid water and water vapor was not represented in the model. The role of heat transport in water has broad implications for site responses to warming and suggests reduced vulnerability of permafrost to thaw at drier sites. This result is consistent with field observations of faster thaw in response to warming in wet sites compared to drier sites over the past 30 years in Canadian boreal forests. These results highlight that representation of water flow in heat transport models is important to simulate future soil thermal or permafrost dynamics under a changing climate.     

Adaptation of interconnected infrastructures to climate change: A socio-technical systems perspective

Climate change is likely to affect how society will function in this century. Because climate change effects may be severe, a next step is to study not only the effects on natural systems, but also the effects on built infrastructure systems and, in response to anticipated effects, the adaptation of those systems. Studies that discuss interconnected infrastructures, society's backbones, in light of climate change are emerging. We apply a socio-technical systems perspective in order to gain insight into the effects of climate change on our infrastructure systems and possible adaption strategies for the coming decades. We use this perspective to collect and describe the literature on adaptation of infrastructures to climate change. We find that the analysed papers predominantly focus on specific geographic areas and that various types of impacts on and interdependencies of built socio-technical systems are recognized, not only for energy and transport, but also for water infrastructures. A missing step is the modelling of adaptation measures. Recent literature enables an exploration of strategies for adaptation, which should be expected in the coming years.     

The effects of climate change on energy consumption of cooling systems in Tehran

Energy consumption in buildings is heavily affected by climate change. It causes significant variations of the outdoor design conditions, cooling and heating loads. In this paper, a total of 40 years (1967-2006) of hourly temperature data were considered in four decades and outdoor design conditions for each decade were calculated. It was found that wet-bulb temperature (WBT) has increased by 3.28 °C during the mentioned period, which impacts on design and selection of the cooling equipment. The results show that cooling hours is projected to increase around 15% over the whole 1967-2006 period. The most important result found in this study is the inability of direct evaporative cooling (DEC) systems in preparing comfort condition after 1997, whereas these systems provided thermal comfort in Tehran's buildings from 1967 to 1996. The prediction of climate change impacts on the outdoor design conditions and cooling systems performance until 2020 demonstrates dry bulb temperature (DBT) and WBT increase 1.05 °C and 2.42 °C respectively. Hence, indirect-direct evaporative cooling systems (IDEC) may not be responsible for the years after 2016. Besides, the additional energy for absorption and vapor compression (VC) cooling systems will grow quickly in the future.     

Climate change impacts on electricity demand: The case of a Southern European country

We study the relationship between average temperatures and electricity consumption in Portugal. Control variables include electricity prices and the economic activity. Our results indicate that there is U-shaped relationship between temperature and electricity consumption. While changes in average temperature do not affect electricity consumption by a large extent, extreme temperatures have stronger impacts. Given the mild weather in Portugal, electricity demand has not changed significantly over the last decades. Larger impacts can only be expected if extreme weather events become more frequent. Our results show the importance of considering country specificities in the analysis and of comparing several model specifications.