Direct method for evaluation of bulk power system reliability Part 2: Solution algorithm

A new approach to the problem of evaluation of bulk power system reliability has been proposed in Part 1 which also includes a theoretical foundation of the approach. A solution algorithm for the same approach is presented. The algorithm is divided into five major steps. The details of each step are described and an illustrative example is given.     

Direct method for evaluation of bulk power system reliability Part 1: Theoretical foundation

The reliability of a bulk power system is defined as the probability of the set of states for which the DC load flow is satisfied with a particular demand and there is no line overload. A direct method to find such a set of working states, which does not require the solution of a load flow, is proposed. The method involves (i) replacing two sets, one defined by the constraints on line flows and the other by the constraints on phase angles, by two families of hyperboxes; and (ii) identifying the states for which there occur points in a pair of hyperboxes, one from each family, that satisfy the flow-angle relations. The theoretical foundation of the method is presented.     

计及气候因素的大电力系统可靠性评估

研究了电网可靠性评估中计及气候条件因素的问题。针对不同气候条件下的输电线路元件，建立其可靠性模型，采用Monte Carlo方法对气候区域和输电线路进行抽样，确定区域气候状态和输电元件状态。可以处理输电网络或某一输电线路在同一时刻可能处在不同气候条件下的情况。最后介绍了计及气候条件因素的电网可靠性评估程序编制，给出了程序流程图，并通过算例比较计及气候条件与否对可靠性充裕度指标的影响。     

大电网可靠性评估的灵敏度分析新方法

针对大电网灵敏度难以求解的状况,提出了大电网可靠性评估灵敏度分析新方法,通过系统节点可靠性的元件信息以及连通关系,求得灵敏度的相关信息,进而为电力系统规划和运行提供重要的指导意见。通过36节点算例,验证了该方法评估大电网灵敏度的有效性、可行。     

A fuzzy-based power system reliability evaluation

This paper presents a fuzzy version for evaluating the reliability of complex power systems. In the proposed algorithm, fuzzy set theory was used to evaluate the coefficients of different terms in reliability expression. The coefficients of the reliability expression are composed of system tie/cut sets and link capacities. The proposed algorithm has made it possible to on-line power system security assessment depends on the system history and past experience. The entire logic of the algorithm is explained in detail and verified through a numerical example.     

Reporting bulk power system delivery point reliability

This paper is part of an ongoing activity of the IEEE Application of Probability Methods Subcommittee to advance the probabilistic methods used to analyze bulk power system (BPS) reliability. The objective of the Task Force is to develop a set of guidelines for measuring delivery point reliability. This involves reviewing published literature and other documentation of existing procedures, definitions, and indices. This report presents the results of the Task Force efforts to compile a useful set of terms and procedures for consistent reporting of BPS delivery point reliability     

大电力系统可靠性评估的系统状态抽取方法研究

大电力系统可靠性评估算法包括3个基本步骤:系统状态抽取、系统状态分析和系统可靠性指标的更新。其中系统状态抽取是大电力系统可靠性评估中的重要起始环节。详细讨论了大电力系统可靠性评估的4种系统状态抽取方法,即状态枚举、状态抽样、状态转移抽样和状态持续时间抽样的基本原理,分析了它们的优缺点,并用RBTS和IEEE-RTS79可靠性测试系统进行分析研究。研究结果表明,不同的系统状态抽取方法具有不同的适用范围,并对可靠性评估的计算效率有重要影响。     

基于MCMC的电网安全稳定控制系统动态可靠性评估方法

现有安全稳定控制系统（稳控系统）可靠性评估方法本质上都是静态建模,由于未能体现系统内各装置的老化和检修过程而一定程度上影响了评估结果的准确性。提出一种基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗的稳控系统动态可靠性评估方法。首先,针对失效过程,构建四状态连续时间系数马尔可夫模型来模拟装置老化过程,并给出各状态评判方法;其次,针对修复过程,分析不同检修策略对装置状态转移的影响以体现状态检修的差异化;最后,考虑稳控装置状态转移过程的时序相关性,对稳控系统可靠性进行动态建模。以可抽象出最小单元的实际稳控系统为例,仿真对比了不同检修策略下的可靠性并对模型参数进行了灵敏度分析,评估结果表明该方法可指导稳控装置现场合理检修,并提醒工程中应格外关注对系统可靠性影响大、但随技术发展可逐渐被识别的隐性故障。     

基于地区电网经济运行的无功综合效益优化

采用地区电网无功综合效益优化模型，从经济运行角度，兼顾地区电网有功网损最小和因数达到要求值，使电网的年运行费用达到最小。优化算法将仿射变换内点法与简化分枝定界法（内点－分枝定界法）综合应用于优化过程中，计算结果表明它是一种有效的无功优化算法。     

Security modeling for power system reliability evaluation

This paper presents conceptual development, computation procedure and simulation results of the methodology for modeling security within reliability evaluation of power systems. The proposed approach takes into account activation of protection and automatic controls, local actions of operators, as well as centralized decisions taken by system operators. Transient stability, frequency variation during governor control, emergency and normal levels of line thermal protection, automatic generation control, overload rotation and economic dispatch are the main points of the developed procedure. It can be directly incorporated into the hybrid model for reliability evaluation of different operating states     

A coherency based rescheduling method for dynamic security

For on-line dynamic security analysis, the preventive control or remedial action should be an integral part of the function if instability for a contingency is detected. Research done so far in on-line remedial action has been in rescheduling generation and most of the suggested methods for determining such preventive control use the sensitivities of the stability energy margin to the generator power injections. In this paper, a new coherency based sensitivity method is proposed for generation rescheduling. Different coherency indices have been defined and then compared by ranking the contingencies according to these indices as well as the energy margin index. Since the coherency indices are always functions of the rotor angles, the sensitivity trajectories of a coherency index, such as the most critical rotor angle, with respect to changes of generation can be calculated at every time step of the integration process. This paper suggests that these sensitivities calculated shortly after fault clearing be used for rescheduling the generation. The calculation of these sensitivities are obviously faster than the calculation of the energy margin sensitivities. This paper also shows, with test results using several different systems, that the rescheduling achieved by this method provides the necessary remedial action. It is also noted that this method is intuitively more direct as it uses the sensitivities of the worst affected generator angles for rescheduling     

输变电系统可靠性评估中设备故障率预测方法研究

由于输变电设备在地域分布上的复杂性、运行状态的随机多样性,使得输变电设备故障率具有时变性、随机性等特点。同时由于反映设备故障的信息获取困难,故难以应用常规的回归分析法、分解分析法等时间序列分析法建立准确的故障率预测模型。文中以全网输变电设备故障率为研究对象,提出了一种基于自回归-移动平均混合模型(ARMA模型)的输变电设备故障率预测方法,克服了常规解析法进行输变电设施可靠性评估信息获取困难的缺点,能有效提高全网输变电设施可靠性评估的合理性和准确性。最后,对220k V输电线路故障率进行了预测,结果表明,所提预测模型具有较高的精度,能够满足实际工程的应用要求。     

A computerized technique for reliability evaluation in power system transmission planning

The paper discusses two computer programs to calculate the composite system reliability indices, the loss of load probability and the expected demand not served, for use in long-range power system transmission expansion planning. The programs are based on the maximum-flow-minimum-cut technique and a decomposition principle which transforms the network capacity state space into nonoverlapping subsets to calculate the reliability indices.A modified version is also discussed in which the respective individual load reliability indices at each bus are determined.The programs have been applied to different test systems and typical results are presented in the paper.     

基于单摆方程的电力系统同调性量化分析

电力系统受扰后的非同调可能导致动态等值不准确,影响系统的安全稳定分析。为此,文中提出能计及阻尼力矩影响的电力系统同调性量化分析方法。首先,基于单摆方程推导电力系统受扰后其动态等值系统周期特性表达式,分析电力系统动态等值与同调性的关联关系;其次,在确定故障场景中,根据等值系统转子角轨迹的上下边界提出运动周期的估算方法,通过比较估算周期与实测周期的差异提出电力系统同调性的量化分析指标;然后,研究系统阻尼力矩影响,基于估算周期提出系统动态阻尼特性的量化评估指标;最后,两个典型系统算例仿真表明,文中所提方法与指标均有效可靠,可为电力系统安全稳定校核提供参考。     

一种配电网可靠性评估新方法

提出一种基于最小配电区域和蒙特卡洛模拟混合法的复杂配电网可靠性评估算法。根据块具有整体性且元件故障后果一致的特性,将网络分块创建了以最小配电区域为基础的配电网络简化模型,在简化网络模型的基础上利用蒙特卡洛模拟法得到整个配电网络和各负荷点的可靠性概率分布指标。文末应用该算法对RBTS-BUS6系统进行可靠性评估,算例表明该算法实用。     

基于相关度同调分析的PMU配置

基于全球定位系统GPS的同步相量量测单元PMU(Phasor Measurement Unit)是一种新型的量测装置,该装置可以直接量测节点电压相量。文章在电力系统同调性概念的基础上,通过数字仿真获取发电机的时间响应曲线,定义了基于相关性原理的发电机同调指标。该方法简明且易于实现,具有较高的应用价值。通过IEEE39节点对该方法进行了验证。     

基于区间优化算法的电力系统可靠性评估逆问题模型

电力系统可靠性评估逆问题是指从已知的可靠性指标值出发求取未知的元件可靠性参数的问题,是电力系统可靠性领域一个重要的潜在研究方向。只有在待求可靠性参数个数与可靠性指标个数相等的特殊情形下,采用现有的逆问题研究方法才能取得参数的准确值。针对以上不足,首先,基于可靠性指标解析计算函数,构建逆问题的非线性方程组模型。其次,为计及已知可靠性指标个数大于、等于或小于待求参数个数的3种情形,将方程组模型转化为优化问题,建立逆问题的一般性模型。针对逆问题存在多解的情形,以可靠性参数优化为例,说明如何构建对应于具体工程问题的逆问题模型。然后,提出基于改进区间优化算法的逆问题求解方法,该方法能够在逆问题的不同情形之间进行切换,并确保求得最优解。最后,将所提方法应用于RBTS、IEEE-RTS系统和91节点系统,算例结果表明：针对逆问题的上述3种情形,采用所提方法均可有效求得准确的元件可靠性参数。     

基于改进动态故障树的电力系统广域保护通信系统可靠性分析方法

针对广域保护系统对通信网络实时性和可靠性的高要求,提出了一种将动态故障树和蒙特卡洛算法相结合的广域保护通信系统可靠性分析方法。利用扩展的动态故障树建立了系统模型,并采用序贯蒙特卡洛方法对系统的可靠性进行分析计算。通过仿真对系统的可靠性和薄弱环节等进行分析。仿真结果表明,所提出的可靠性分析方法模型简单、适用性强,能够快速发现影响系统可靠性的因素,便于快速诊断和维护,提高了整个网络的可靠性。     

Composite power systems reliability evaluation based on demand-side reserve

This paper proposes new demand-side reliability indices and useful computational methods for reliability evaluation of composite power systems. These new indices are based on the active power which can reach each demand spot under generating and transmission network constraints. This conception is defined as “reachable power,” and it leads the reserve margin on each demand spot, which is called as “demand-side reserve.” If the reachable power is insufficient to satisfy the demand, load curtailment is required. In the proposed approach, the conception of the load curtailment area is defined, and the estimate method of load curtailment area is indicated. In case the reachable power exceeds the demand, system reliability is evaluated by the demand-side reserve, and the power system is divided into several reliability zones according to the demand-side reserve levels. Small system examples are used to illustrate principles of the proposed approach, and middle system examples show the effectiveness and practicality.