Public preferences for alternative electricity mixes in post-Fukushima Japan

Using representative household survey data from Japan after the Fukushima accident, we estimate peoples' willingness-to-pay (WTP) for renewable, nuclear, and fossil fuels in electricity generation. We rely on random parameter econometric techniques to capture various degrees of heterogeneity between the respondents, and use detailed regional information to assess how WTP varies with the distance to both the nearest nuclear power plant and to Fukushima. Compared to fossil fuels, we find a positive WTP for renewable and a negative WTP for nuclear fuels. These effects, in absolute terms, increase with the proximity to Fukushima.     

福岛核危机对日本能源战略的影响及启示

至本世纪前10年,核能已成为日本能源供应中不可或缺的重要因素,然而,2011年因"东日本大地震"引发的福岛核危机却动摇了日本继续发展核能的信心,不得不对现有的能源战略进行调整。福岛核危机对日本原来制定的能源战略产生了巨大影响,其中包括能源战略目标难以实现,加剧了对化石燃料的依赖;造成大量的电力缺口,总发电量减少了1/4,导致消费者用电成本急剧增加;短期内不得不增加液化天然气、原油、燃料油和煤炭等化石能源的进口量,加剧了日本能源安全的不确定性。为了缓解福岛核危机所造成的一系列负面影响并保障能源安全,日本政府重新制定了能源战略——重点集中在去核能化,去核能化是顺应民意、安抚民心,并防止核事故再次发生的根本性战略,是日本的必然选择;同时高度重视可再生能源的发展,可再生能源发电比例将由2010年的10%跃升至2030年的35%,总发电量将由2010年的1100×108kW.h提高到2030年的3000×108kW.h;大力实施节约能源战略,提出2030年电力消耗量在2010年的基础上节约1100×108kW.h,能源消耗量在2010年的基础上节约720×108L;另外,日本政府还对电力系统进行改革。结合我国的能源战略及核电发展现状,日本的能源战略调整给予我国的启示包括:要将核安全置于首要地位、加速可再生能源发展和坚持节约能源战略。     

A stochastic‐fuzzy programming model with soften constraints for electricity generation planning with greenhouse‐gas abatement

Increased atmospheric CO₂ concentration is widely being considered as the main driving factor that causes the phenomenon of global warming, due to the ever‐boosting use of fossil fuels. In this study, a fuzzy‐stochastic programming model with soft constraints (FSP‐SC) is developed for electricity generation planning and greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement in an environment with imprecise and probabilistic information. The developed FSP‐SC is applied to a case study of long‐term planning of a regional electricity generation system, where integer programming technique is employed to facilitate dynamic analysis for capacity expansion within a multi‐period context to satisfy increasing electricity demand. The results indicate different relaxation levels can lead to changed electricity generation options, capacity expansion schemes, system costs, and GHG emissions. Several sensitivity analyses are also conducted to demonstrate that relaxation of different constraints have different effects on system cost and GHG emission. Tradeoffs among system costs, resource availabilities, GHG emissions, and electricity‐shortage risks can also be tackled with the relaxation levels for the objective and constraints. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

日本地震对世界和我国液化天然气产业的影响

2011年3月,日本东北部太平洋海域发生大地震和海啸,导致日本大批发电机组受损,引发福岛核泄漏事故,对世界和我国液化天然气(LNG)产业的发展产生了深远的影响。短期来看,多家日本电力公司大量采购LNG弥补电力缺口,短期和现货LNG市场趋紧,价格上涨;长期来看,福岛核泄漏事故对世界各国的核电规划与发展造成影响,世界LNG潜在需求增加,长期LNG资源的价格博弈愈加激烈。LNG作为我国天然气供应的重要组成部分,对调整我国能源消费结构、实现我国碳减排目标、保障我国沿海地区天然气安全稳定供应意义重大。当前世界LNG市场形势复杂多变,建议继续密切跟踪国内外形势变化,及时调整资源合作与开发策略,实现我国液化天然气产业的可持续发展。     

Could nuclear fission energy,etc., solve the greenhouse problem? The affirmative case

For effective climate change mitigation, the global use of fossil fuels for electricity generation, transportation and other industrial uses, will need to be substantially curtailed this century. In a recent Viewpoint in Energy Policy, Trainer (2010) argued that non-carbon energy sources will be insufficient to meet this goal, due to cost, variability, energy storage requirements and other technical limitations. However, his dismissal of nuclear fission energy was cursory and inadequate. Here I argue that fossil fuel replacement this century could, on technical grounds, be achieved via a mix of fission, renewables and fossil fuels with carbon sequestration, with a high degree of electrification, and nuclear supplying over half of final energy. I show that the principal limitations on nuclear fission are not technical, economic or fuel-related, but are instead linked to complex issues of societal acceptance, fiscal and political inertia, and inadequate critical evaluation of the real-world constraints facing low-carbon alternatives.     

An integrated scenario analysis for future zero‐carbon energy system

An integrated scenario analysis methodology has been proposed for zero‐carbon energy system in perspectives of social‐economy, environment and technology. By using the methodology, service demands in all sectors were estimated based on social‐economic data, and then the best technology and energy mixes were obtained to meet the service demands. The methodology was applied to Japan toward zero‐carbon energy system out to the year of 2100, and three different scenarios of nuclear power development are considered in light of the Fukushima accident: (i) no further introduction of nuclear, (ii) fixed portion and (iii) no limit of nuclear. The results show that, zero‐carbon energy scenario can be attained in the year 2100 when electricity will supply 75% of total energy consumption, and three power generation scenarios were proposed, 30% renewable and 70% gas‐carbon capture and storage (CCS) in Scenario 1, respective one‐third nuclear, renewable and gas‐CCS in Scenario 2, and 60% nuclear power, 20% renewable and 10% gas‐CCS in Scenario 3. Finally, Scenario 2 is rated as the most balanced scenario by putting emphasis on the availability of diversified power source, considering the inter‐comparison of the three scenarios from the four aspects of cost, CO₂ emission, risk and diversity. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Social cost of electricity generation in Greece

This paper presents calculations of the social cost of electricity generation from fossil fuels in Greece. The interest of these calculations is that they allow a more realistic comparison between the actual price of electricity and the electricity produced by renewable energy sources, mainly wind and photovoltaic. The estimated social cost of energy was found to be in the range of 7.3–5.4 GRD · kWh⁻¹.     

Evaluating options for the future energy mix of Japan after the Fukushima nuclear crisis

The Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011 has increased social and political reluctance to embrace nuclear power in Japan (and elsewhere). The Japanese government has thus been considering four possible future energy mixes, including a nuclear-free pathway, and three others with 10%–35% nuclear supply coupled with a larger proportion of renewable energy and fossil fuels to replace nuclear. Here we use multi-criteria decision-making analysis (MCDMA) to assess the potential negative economic (levelised cost of electricity, and energy security), environmental (greenhouse-gas emissions, land transformation, water consumption, heated water discharge, air pollution, radioactive waste, and solid waste) and social (safety issues) impacts of the four proposed pathways to determine which scenario most holistically minimises adverse future outcomes. The nuclear-free pathway has the highest overall potential for adverse outcomes (score=2.49 out of 3), and the 35% nuclear power supply option yielding the lowest negative impact score (0.74) without weightings. Despite some sensitivity to the choice of criterion weights, our analyses demonstrate clearly that from an empirical perspective, a nuclear-free pathway for Japan is the worst option to pursue. We recommend that MCDMA methodology we used for Japan can be applied to other countries to evaluate future electricity generation scenarios.     

Analysis of biomass co-firing systems in Taiwan power markets using linear complementarity models

Biomass co-firing systems in power plants generate electric power by the simultaneous combustion of biomass and fossil fuels. The co-firing process reduces investment costs by converting biomass energy into electricity in existing conventional power plants. Biomass co-firing significantly reduces carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions in power generation. To meet the increase in biomass demand, this paper has considered systematic energy crop production, which is expected to increase in the near future. Our aim is to analyze biomass co-firing systems in the Taiwanese electricity market. In this paper, we study two emerging biomass feedstocks: switchgrass and Miscanthus. We focus on the impact of energy crop co-firing on carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions for electricity generation. A Nash–Cournot competition model, which simulates potential biomass co-firing scenarios, is formulated for power markets. A case study conducted in the Taiwanese electricity market showed that biomass co-firing lowers total electricity demand and sale. Miscanthus is more economical than switchgrass in terms of the production cost and the land required to generate biopower for the same levels of biomass co-firing.     

Evaluation of negative environmental impacts of electricity generation: Neoclassical and institutional approaches

Neoclassical and institutional economics have developed different theories and methodologies for evaluating environmental and social impacts of electricity generation. The neoclassical approach valuates external costs, and the institutional approach uses social cost valuation and MCDM methods. This paper focuses on three dimensions: theoretical and methodological backgrounds; critical review of specific studies: methodologies, results, and limitations; and discussing their results and implications for environmental policy and further research. The two approaches lead to a common conclusion that fossil fuels and nuclear power show the highest environmental impact. Despite the common conclusion, the conclusion has limited implications for environmental policy because of the weakness of their methodologies.     

Bio‐oil,solid and gaseous biofuels from biomass pyrolysis processes—An overview

As the global demand for energy rapidly increases and fossil fuels will be soon exhausted, bio‐energy has become one of the key options for shorter and medium term substitution for fossil fuels and the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Biomass currently supplies 14% of the world's energy needs. Biomass pyrolysis has a long history and substantial future potential—driven by increased interest in renewable energy. This article presents the state‐of‐the‐art of biomass pyrolysis systems, which have been—or are expected to be—commercialized. Performance levels, technological status, market penetration of new technologies and the costs of modern forms of biomass energy are discussed. Advanced methods have been developed in the last two decades for the direct thermal conversion of biomass to liquid fuels, charcoals and various chemicals in higher yields than those obtained by traditional pyrolysis processes. The most important reactor configurations are fluidized beds, rotating cones, vacuum and ablative pyrolysis reactors. Fluidized beds and rotating cones are easier for scaling and possibly more cost effective. Slow pyrolysis is being used for the production of charcoal, which can also be gasified to obtain hydrogen‐rich gas. The short residence time pyrolysis of biomass (flash pyrolysis), at moderate temperatures, is being used to obtain a high yield of liquid products (up to 70% wt), particularly interesting as energetic vectors. Bio‐oil can substitute for fuel oil—or diesel fuel—in many static applications including boilers, furnaces, engines and turbines for electricity generation. While commercial biocrudes can easily substitute for heavy fuel oils, it is necessary to improve the quality in order to consider biocrudes as a replacement for light fuel oils. For transportation fuels, high severity chemical/catalytic processes are needed. An attractive future transportation fuel can be hydrogen, produced by steam reforming of the whole oil, or its carbohydrate‐derived fraction. Pyrolysis gas—containing significant amount of carbon dioxide, along with methane—might be used as a fuel for industrial combustion. Presently, heat applications are most economically competitive, followed by combined heat and power applications; electric applications are generally not competitive. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of electric vehicles on a future renewable energy‐based power system in Europe with a focus on Germany

Electric mobility is expected to play a key role in the decarbonisation of the energy system. Continued development of battery electric vehicles is fundamental to achieving major reductions in the consumption of fossil fuels and of CO₂ emissions in the transport sector. Hydrogen can become an important complementary synthetic fuel providing electric vehicles with longer ranges. However, the environmental benefit of electric vehicles is significant only if their additional electricity consumption is covered by power production from renewable energy sources. Analysing the implications of different scenarios of electric vehicles and renewable power generation considering their spatial and temporal characteristics, we investigate possible effects of electric mobility on the future power system in Germany and Europe. The time horizon of the scenario study is 2050. The approach is based on power system modelling that includes interchange of electricity between European regions, which allows assessing long‐term structural effects in energy systems with over 80% of renewable power generation. The study exhibits strong potential of controlled charging and flexible hydrogen production infrastructure to avoid peak demand increases and to reduce the curtailment of renewable power resulting in reduced system operation, generation, and network expansion costs. A charging strategy that is optimised from a systems perspective avoids in our scenarios 3.5 to 4.5 GW of the residual peak load in Germany and leads to efficiency gains of 10% of the electricity demand of plug‐in electric vehicles compared with uncontrolled loading.     

Coproduction of district heat and electricity or biomotor fuels

The operation of a district heating system depends on the heat load demand, which varies throughout the year. In this paper, we analyze the coproduction of district heat and electricity or biomotor fuels. We demonstrate how three different taxation scenarios and two crude oil price levels influence the selection of production units to minimize the district heat production cost and calculate the resulting primary energy use. Our analysis is based on the annual measured heat load of a district heating system. The minimum-cost district heat production system comprises different production units that meet the district heat demand and simultaneously minimize the district heat production cost. First, we optimize the cost of a district heat production system based on the cogeneration of electricity and heat with and without biomass integrated gasification combined-cycle technology. We considered cogenerated electricity as a byproduct with the value of that produced by a condensing power plant. Next, we integrate and optimize different biomotor fuel production units into the district heat production system by considering biomotor fuels as byproducts that can substitute for fossil motor fuels. We demonstrate that in district heating systems, the strengthening of environmental taxation reduces the dependence on fossil fuels. However, increases in environmental taxation and the crude oil price do not necessarily influence the production cost of district heat as long as biomass price is not driven by policy measures. Biomotor fuel production in a district heating system is typically not cost-efficient. The biomotor fuels produced from the district heating system have to compete with those from standalone biomotor fuel plants and also with its fossil-based counterparts. This is also true for high oil prices. A carbon tax on fossil CO₂ emissions based on social cost damage will increase the competitiveness of biomass-based combined heat and power plants, especially for BIGCC technology with its high electricity-to-heat ratio.     

Review of Japan's power generation scenarios in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident

Following on from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the Japanese government is now in the throes of reviewing its power policy. Under continuing policies of economic revival and greenhouse gas reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for the country to realize reliable, low‐carbon, and economic electricity systems in the future. On the other hand, the social acceptance of nuclear power will affect the final political decision significantly. Therefore, in the present study, proposed power generation scenarios in Japan in light of the Fukushima accident were reviewed comprehensively from economic, environmental, technological, resource, security, and social perspectives. The review concludes that in Japan, (i) renewable energy mainly solar and wind needs to be developed as fast as possible subject to various constraints, (ii) more gas power plants will be used to absorb the fluctuations of intermittent renewable energy and supply electricity gap, (iii) nuclear power will be reduced in the future, but a 0% nuclear power scenario by 2030 is unlikely to be a reasonable choice on most measures and (iv) the effective communication with the public is vital important. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Progress of renewable electricity replacing fossil fuels

Dramatic fall in costs of renewable energy in the last 24 months has not only accelerated the replacement of fossil fuels by renewable energy in electricity generation. The low cost renewable electricity is now starting to replace fossil fuels in other sectors.One reason is that renewable electricity is now cheaper per unit energy than oil, about the same price as fossil methan but, still, more expensive than coal. Another reason is that electricity often offer other opportunities, such as cheaper transport, better control, higher energy efficiency in final production of energy services and lower local environmental costs.     

Economic comparison between coal-fired and liquefied natural gas combined cycle power plants considering carbon tax: Korean case

Economic growth is main cause of environmental pollution and has been identified as a big threat to sustainable development. Considering the enormous role of electricity in the national economy, it is essential to study the effect of environmental regulations on the electricity sector. This paper aims at making an economic analysis of Korea's power plant utilities by comparing electricity generation costs from coal-fired power plants and liquefied natural gas (LNG) combined cycle power plants with environmental consideration. In this study, the levelized generation cost method (LGCM) is used for comparing economic analysis of power plant utilities. Among the many pollutants discharged during electricity generation, this study principally deals with control costs related only to CO₂ and NO₂, since the control costs of SO₂ and total suspended particulates (TSP) are already included in the construction cost of utilities. The cost of generating electricity in a coal-fired power plant is compared with such cost in a LNG combined cycle power plant. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis with computer simulation is performed according to fuel price, interest rates and carbon tax. In each case, these results can help in deciding which utility is economically justified in the circumstances of environmental regulations.     

Flexibility improvement evaluation of hydrogen storage based on electricity–hydrogen coupled energy model

To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, decarbonization in the energy sector is crucial. Hydrogen is expected to be vital for achieving the aim of carbon neutrality for two reasons: use of power-to-hydrogen (P2H) can avoid carbon emissions from hydrogen production, which is traditionally performed using fossil fuels; Hydrogen from P2H can be stored for long durations in large scales and then delivered as industrial raw material or fed back to the power system depending on the demand. In this study, we focus on the analysis and evaluation of hydrogen value in terms of improvement in the flexibility of the energy system, particularly that derived from hydrogen storage. An electricity–hydrogen coupled energy model is proposed to realize the hourly-level operation simulation and capacity planning optimization aiming at the lowest cost of energy. Based on this model and considering Northwest China as the region of study, the potential of improvement in the flexibility of hydrogen storage is determined through optimization calculations in a series of study cases with various hydrogen demand levels. The results of the quantitative calculations prove that effective hydrogen storage can improve the system flexibility by promoting the energy demand balance over a long term, contributing toward reducing the investment cost of both generators and battery storage and thus the total energy cost. This advantage can be further improved when the hydrogen demand rises. However, a cost reduction by 20% is required for hydrogen-related technologies to initiate hydrogen storage as long-term energy storage for power systems. This study provides a suggestion and reference for the advancement and planning of hydrogen storage development in regions with rich sources of renewable energy.     

Energy,environmental and economic effects of Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) in a Developing Country

This paper analyses the potential of renewable energy for power generation and its energy, environmental and economic implications in Pakistan, using a bottom up type of long term energy system based on the MARKAL framework. The results show that under a highly optimistic renewable portfolio standard (RPS) of 80%, fossil fuel consumption in 2050 would be reduced from 4660 PJ to 306 PJ, and the GHG emissions would decrease from 489 million tons to 27 million tons. Nevertheless, price of the electricity generation will increase significantly from US$ 47/MWh under current circumstances (in the base case) to US$ 86/MWh under RPS80. However the effects on import dependency, energy-mix diversity, per unit price of electricity generation and cost of imported fuels indicate that, it may not be desirable to go beyond RPS50. Under RPS50 in 2050, fuel consumption of the power sector would reduce from 21% under the base case to 9% of total fossil fuels supplied to the country. It will decrease not only GHG emission to 170 million tons but also will reduce import dependency from 73% under the base case to 21% and improve energy diversity mix with small increase in price of electricity generation (from US$ 47/MWh under the base case to US$ 59/MWh under RPS 50).     

Use of the castner reaction for hydrogen fuel production

Abstract

The predicted increase in global temperatures requires that greenhouse gas emissions, especially carbon dioxide, are reduced. This may necessitate the development of alternative methods to produce fuel for electricity generation and transport. Adaptation of the Castner process provides a method by which hydrogen can be generated in industrial quantities from all forms of fossil and other carbon based fuels from any source, i.e. natural, biomass and waste. The amount of carbon dioxide produced by this method is less than that presently generated by fossil fuel burning power stations. Also, the carbon dioxide produced is in a form suitable for capture and disposal by the Weldon process. The component processes of the Castner–Weldon cycle for hydrogen generation and CO₂ capture are well established, despite the fact that these processes have not been in use for about 100 years. The Castner–Weldon process can be operated in the UK from materials available within the UK and is sustainable as long as any form of carbon based fuel is available. Initially development of this method only requires information concerning the efficiency and cost compared to existing methods. The costs involved for this stage are unlikely to exceed £1 000 000. It is envisaged that most of the present coal fired power stations would not have to be rebuilt immediately but merely adapted, thus reducing the cost of conversion to hydrogen use. The cost of conversion cannot be in excess of the present construction cost of these power stations at £0.5 billion and is considerably less than the construction cost of equivalent nuclear power station at £1.5 billion.     

日本是否会放弃核能——日本能源政策走向分析

能源作为日本震后经济社会发展的中长期政策大纲《日本再生基本战略》的主要支柱之一,日本能源政策的走向尤为值得关注.从短期看,日本将加大核能监管,继续扩大核电制造出口,完全弃核是不可能的;从长期看,日本会逐步降低核能在能源结构中的比例.由于核电的关停,造成日本电力供应不足,进而导致对火力发电政策的支持力度增强,未来对化石能源的依赖局面仍将持续.同时,由于核能政策的调整,一方面使得节能及提高能源使用效率成为新的支柱,另一方面可再生能源将成为重要的发展方向.近10年来,日本可再生能源占能源结构的比例一直没什么变化,约为10％,这与日本政府支持核能战略的政策导向不无关系.日本当前发展可再生能源的主要障碍是缺乏政府的长期政策扶持,其次是开发难度大、发电成本高、系统稳定性低.日本目前需要解决的课题包括全量购买制度等相关政策的导入,大幅度降低成本和解决稳定性关键技术,有效解决可再生能源利用的地域化差异等.总的来看,日本新的能源政策基本是围绕减少对核电的依赖和应对全球气候变暖来制定的.