A novel coupling model for risk analysis of swell and shrinkage of expansive soils

Risk analysis of swell and shrinkage is essential to properly evaluate engineering stability and safety of expansive soils. Herein a novel model for risk analysis of swell and shrinkage of expansive soils was proposed by means of coupling set pair analysis with stochastic simulation of triangular fuzzy numbers. A concept of multi-element connection number for a set pair, which consisted of measured evaluation index sets and classification standard sets of shrink and expansion grade, was described to express hierarchy and fuzziness of membership between the evaluation sample and the classification standard. Moreover, triangular fuzzy numbers simulated by the stochastic simulation method were presented to depict the changing process and fuzziness of component coefficients of discrepancy degree. Combined with the weight of the evaluation index, integrated connection number was calculated to specify the swell and shrinkage grade of the evaluation sample. A confidence level of evaluation result was also given corresponding to a confidence interval. Finally, a practical example was used to confirm and to compare with the fuzzy mathematic method and extension method. The results show that this presented method is more feasible and easy to operate, and the result is good. It can provide a reliable degree of evaluation results for risk design and risk management of projects on expansive soils.     

一种安全软件安全性评估的模糊模型

提出了一种安全软件安全性评估的模糊模型，利用软件测试过程中的客观危险失效的主观评价进行模糊推理，实现了安全软件安全性的一种定性评估，并通过仿真实例给予说明。     

基于遗传算法和模糊综合评价的虚拟企业风险规划

虚拟企业是未来企业的潜在发展模式,虚拟企业的风险管理是当前研究的热点问题,风险规划是风险管理的重要阶段之一.本文针对虚拟企业缺少历史资料、不确定因素多等特点,提出了非线性整数规划和模糊综合评价相结合的风险规划问题描述模型以及遗传算法与模糊综合评价相结合的问题求解算法.实例仿真验证了该方法的有效性.该方法能够实现在一定风险费用投入的情况下,通过优化组合风险处理措施,达到虚拟企业整体风险水平最低的目标,是虚拟企业风险规划的科学管理方法．     

基于模糊AHP的TOPSIS评估方法研究

对于模糊环境下的评估,存在固有的不确定性和不精确性信息比较的情况。在AHP的框架下,通过三角模糊数表示元素之间的比较比率,定义了两个模糊数之间的距离,利用模糊综合扩展分析方法构造决策矩阵。根据理想近似方法,通过计算到正理想解和负理想解的距离求出每个方案的贴近系数,得出候选者的评估顺序,并举例说明了应用这个方法的计算过程。     

结合OWA算子和模糊DEMATEL的风险评估方法

针对传统故障模式与影响分析(FMEA)方法在实际应用中的不足,提出一种基于有序加权平均(OWA)算子和决策试行与评价实验法(DEMATEL)的风险排序方法。FMEA专家对故障模式的3个风险因子给出模糊评价信息,应用OWA算子对评估信息进行集结,得到各故障原因对故障模式的影响强度。采用模糊DEMATEL法构建FMEA系统要素间的初始直接影响矩阵,经过运算可得综合影响矩阵,并计算各故障原因的原因度,据此进行产品或系统的失效风险评估。运用该方法对地铁车门系统的基础部件进行安全性分析,并将所得结果与传统RPN方法的结果做对比,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

A new type-2 fuzzy set of linguistic variables for the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) has been used to solve various multi-criteria decision-making problems where trapezoidal type-1 fuzzy sets are utilized in defining decision-makers’ linguistic judgment. Previous theories have suggested that interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2 FS) can offer an alternative that can handle vagueness and uncertainty. This paper proposes a new FAHP characterized by IT2 FS for linguistic variables. Differently from the typical FAHP, which directly utilizes trapezoidal type-1 fuzzy numbers, this method introduces IT2 FS to enhance judgment in the fuzzy decision-making environment. This new model includes linguistic variables in IT2 FS and a rank value method for normalizing upper and lower memberships of IT2 FS. The proposed model is illustrated by a numerical example of work safety evaluation. Comparable results are also presented to check the feasibility of the proposed method. It is shown that the ranking order of the proposed method is consistent with the other two methods despite difference in weight priorities.     

基于熵权直觉模糊拓展MULTIMOORA的机场消防站选址评价模型

针对准则权重信息完全未知的直觉模糊多准则群决策问题,考虑经典直觉模糊熵公式及MULTIMOORA模型的不足,提出新的直觉模糊熵公式以充分刻画直觉模糊数的直觉信息和模糊信息,定义占优凸组合运算,拓展解决多准则决策问题的MULTIMOORA模型以适用于解决多准则群决策问题.在以直觉模糊数为信息输入的系统框架内,构建机场消防站选址评价指标体系,进而提出基于熵权直觉模糊拓展MULTIMOORA的机场消防站选址评价模型.案例分析表明了所提出方法的可行性,为机场消防站选址评价提供了一种新思路.     

基于FAHP和FMCDM构建软件可信性评估模型*

结合软件可信性评估的特点及模糊理论的最新进展,提出一种基于模糊层次分析法和模糊多指标决策理论的评估模型。首先针对软件可信性没有一致定义的现状,提出了相对可信性的概念;接着基于模糊数理论,用三角模糊数表示专家评估中语言变量的主观性和模糊性,结合专家给出的模糊指标权重及待评软件可信等级的模糊评价,得到软件可信性的集成模糊评价;最后,将该模型应用到国内某汽车制造企业整车产品开发项目管理软件评估中,实例说明软件可信性评估的具体过程,结果验证了该模型的实效性。     

ERP软件选型模糊综合评价模型的研究

为了解决企业面临的选择ERP软件的问题,全面客观地评价ERP软件,提出了一种通用的ERP软件模糊综合评价模型和方法。建立了ERP软件综合评价指标体系,根据评价者的不同权重,重点阐述了定性指标和定量指标隶属度的确定,建立了模糊评价矩阵。最后以某企业ERP选型为实例进行了说明。     

Improvement of risk assessment in the FMEA using nonlinear model,revised fuzzy TOPSIS,and support vector machine

In every organization, performing accurate risk assessment along with consideration of increasing accidents is a necessary tool to prevent and reduce the fatal and non-fatal consequences of their occurrence. One of the most popular methods of risk assessment is Failure Mode and Effects Analysis, which evaluate failure modes in a system by using risk priority numbers (RPNs). These methods have been criticized for including several deficiencies such as the effect of personal ’opinions, the same importance of the factors and risk rating. The present work utilizes a hybrid approach based on support vector machine and fuzzy inference system to decrease the effect of personal's opinions in determining the factors of the severity and occurrence. Also, Logarithmic Fuzzy Preference Programming is used to determine the crisp weight of dependent factor of FMEA and revised fuzzy TOPSIS used for more accurate ranking of risks. One main feature of the proposed model is that it can be used to evaluate safety risks in all organizations. To investigate the suitability of this approach, the proposed model was presented in the Copper leaching factory, Kerman, Iran. The results showed that this model has the ability to predict severity and occurrence refers to occupational accidents which occurred in a 5-year period (2012–2017) with accuracy of 87% and 95%, respectively. Also, based on the results, it was found that the weights of severity, occurrence, and detection were 0.479, 0.335, and 0.186, respectively. Results of the ranking process showed that the risk of fall from height and stucking between the objects had the highest and the lowest priority, respectively.     

Novel numerical methods for reliability analysis and optimization in engineering fuzzy heat conduction problem

Engineering fuzzy heat conduction problem with subjective uncertainties in input parameters constitutes a significant challenge. Based on fuzzy and interval theory, this paper presents novel numerical methods to efficiently identify the effect of fuzzy uncertainty on the system reliability analysis and optimization design. Firstly using the interval ranking strategy, the interval safety possibility in the transition state can be precisely quantified, and the eventual fuzzy safety possibility is calculated by integral operation. Then a fuzzy reliability-based optimization model is established with considerable computational cost caused by the two-layer nested loop. In order to improve the computational efficiency, a subinterval perturbation method based on the first-order Taylor series is presented to replace the inner loop. Comparing numerical results with traditional reliability model, two numerical examples are provided to evidence the superiority of proposed model and method for fuzzy reliability analysis and optimization in practical engineering.     

城市消防预警系统的模糊综合评价方法研究

针对城市消防预譬提出了模糊综合评价理论,建立了系统、合理的评价指标体系;运用AHP法构建了系统评价的递阶层次结构,在此基础上建立了一个简单、实用的三级模糊综合评价数学模型,该模型为城市消防预譬做出客观评价提供了有效的手段。     

Intelligent and vision-based fire detection systems: A survey

Fire is one of the main disasters in the world. A fire detection system should detect fires in various environments (e.g., buildings, forests, and rural areas) in the shortest time in order to reduce financial losses and humanistic disasters. Fire sensors are, in fact, complementary to conventional point sensors (e.g., smoke and heat detectors), which provide people the early warnings of fire occurrences. Cameras combined with image processing techniques detect fire occurrences more quickly than point sensors. Moreover, they provide the size, growth, and direction of fires more easily than their conventional detectors. This paper, initially, presents a glance view on the main features of various environments including buildings, forests, and mines that should be considered in the design of fire detection systems. Afterwards, it describes some of the intelligent and vision-based fire detection systems that have been presented by researchers in the last decade. These systems are categorized, in this paper, into two groups: intelligent detection systems for forest fires and intelligent fire detection systems for all of the environments. They use various intelligent techniques (e.g., convolutional neural networks, color models, and fuzzy logic) to detect fire occurrences with a high accuracy in various environments. Performances of the fire detection systems are compared to each other in terms of detection rate, precision, true-positive rate, false-positive rate, etc. under different evaluation scenarios.     

基于层次结构的信息安全评估模型研究

论文提出了一种包含管理因素在内的模糊风险评估模型。采用了ISO17799国际标准作为风险的分类标准,以多层分析的模糊逻辑为模型,同时考虑到安全因素间的相互影响,引入了关系矩阵,实现了安全评估综合决策。通过使用三层结构将复杂关系分解为由局部简单关系构成的递增层次结构关系,同时,考虑到评判打分的主观性,制定了七种评判准则及其到评判集元素间的映射关系,增加了评判的客观性。总之,所提出的模糊风险评估模型是有效而实用的。     

Fuzzy and simulation-based techniques for industrial safety and risk assessment

This paper characterizes the development of a hybrid computer-based tool supporting design for safety practices in industrial plant component specification and layout definition. The tool combines simulation and fuzzy logic techniques for the systematic risk assessment of specified design and layout configurations for plants dealing with hazardous materials. In the hybrid system architecture, the simulation module provides the historical experience for a priori hazard identification and ranking, accounting for the domino effects of possible accidental occurrences, while the fuzzy module provides the correlation matrices for concurrent hazard evaluation and overall risk assessment. In particular, the fuzzy module enables the quantitative assessment and comparison among alternative design solutions providing design guidelines, which can be further tested and verified through simulation.     

A fuzzy MCDM method and an application to solid transportation problem with mode preference

In this paper we propose a computationally efficient fuzzy multi-criteria decision making (FMCDM) method. For this purpose we define a ranking function based on credibility measure to rank a fuzzy number over another fuzzy number. A comparative result of our proposed ranking method with the other well known methods is provided. The proposed FMCDM method is successfully applied to find most preferred transportation mode among available modes with respect to some evaluation criteria for a solid transportation problem (STP). Here the evaluation ratings of the alternatives and criteria weights are presented in terms of linguistic variables. The importance weights of the available transportation modes as obtained by this method are then assigned to the STP. Numerical example is provided to illustrate the proposed method and problem.     

A performance appraisal and promotion ranking system based on fuzzy logic: An implementation case in military organizations

Systematic performance appraisal and ranking of candidates applying for promotion is important in strategic human resource management. This paper discusses an approach for the promotion screening of candidates applying for a particular commission in a military organization. The approach uses a fuzzy set theory and electronic nominal group technique for ranking decisions fairly through the multi-criteria performance appraisal process. A new ranking procedure considering the metric distance and fuzzy mean value is proposed, which makes it possible to rank order the performance of the candidates by aggregating the scores from each evaluator. A new system for performance appraisal and promotion ranking is also developed. The system has a monitoring function which utilizes performance evaluation data without abnormal evaluation data, which could occur when a particular evaluator produces an incorrect result. The system was applied to a military organization in Korea. The results of example show that the systematic approach of the fuzzy procedure is an effective method for transparent and impartial multi-criteria performance evaluation.     

基于置信度的软件质量模糊评价模型研究

通过软件质量模糊综合评价实践和对模糊综合评价模型算法的分析,重点研究了在模糊综合评价算法的基础上进行改进并引入置信度进行置信分析的新方法,建立了适合系统化应用的软件质量评价模型,并使用该模型实施软件质量结果评价.由于应用模糊综合模型会产生大量有效信息丢失,从而导致评价结果过于简单化、绝对化,该模型解决了这一不足,并提高了软件质量评价的客观性和准确性.     

Hesitant fuzzy linguistic portfolio model with variable risk appetite and its application in the investment ratio calculation

Qualitative evaluation information is important for financial decision-making and investment when quantitative data are unavailable. Although an alternative ranking is available, specific portfolio and optimal investment ratios cannot be obtained by using the qualitative decision-making methods. To address this issue, this paper proposes a hesitant fuzzy linguistic portfolio model based on the max-score rule and the hesitant fuzzy linguistic element with variable risk appetite (HFLE-RA). The HFLE-RA is able to express qualitative evaluation information by using the hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set and describe the variable investor risk appetites by introducing the asymmetric sigmoid semantics. Thus, different investors can be distinguished by the risk appetite parameters according to the asymmetric sigmoid semantics, and the optimal investment ratios can be obtained by applying the proposed portfolio model. Moreover, the investment opportunities and efficient frontiers of the hesitant fuzzy linguistic portfolio model are investigated. Also, a value-at-risk fitting approach is introduced to calculate the risk appetite parameters. Based on these works, a qualitative investment ratio calculation process is provided in the HFLE-RA environment. Lastly, a real example of calculating the optimal investment ratios for four newly listed stocks in the Growth Enterprises Market board of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange is provided to demonstrate the proposed approaches.     

层次化的侧信道攻击风险量化评估模型

随着攻击的多元化发展,在多种泄露条件下,密码芯片的安全风险评估问题以及优化的攻防策略选择问题成为目前研究盲点。针对多种泄露,从信息泄露的角度出发,利用信息熵对密码芯片的信息进行量化,并将互信息作为安全风险的衡量指标,提出了一种基于层次化的风险评估模型。该模型采用“自下而上,先局部后整体”的分析方法,将不同类型的泄露和攻击方法进行划分,并将互信息作为泄露风险的量化指标,通过模糊综合分析方法对安全风险进行有效的评估。