Modeling the behavior of novice young drivers during the first year after licensure

Novice young drivers suffer from increased crash risk that translates into over-representation in road injuries. In order to effectively confront this problem, a better understanding of the driving behavior of novice young drivers and of its determinants is needed. This study analyzes the behavior of novice young drivers within a Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) program. Data on driving behavior of 62 novice drivers and their parents, who voluntarily participated in this experiment, were collected using in-vehicle data recorders that calculate compound risk indices as measures of the risk taking behavior of drivers. Data were used to estimate a negative binomial model to identify major determinants that affect the driving behavior of young drivers during the first year after licensure. Estimation results suggest that the risk taking behavior of young drivers is influenced by gender, sensation seeking tendency, driving behavior of their parents, amount of supervised driving and level of parental monitoring.     

The potential effectiveness of young driver high-performance vehicle restrictions as used in Australia

Young drivers persistently have higher crash rates despite various countermeasures targeted at their risk factors and exposures. A potentially high risk situation for novice drivers may feasibly include the driving of high performance vehicles, which are subject to restrictions for probationary and restricted drivers in four Australian States. High performance vehicles are capable of high levels of acceleration and speed, which may encourage unsafe driving behaviours, particularly when driven by novice drivers, who may lack appropriate judgement and experience. This research sought to identify potential safety benefits of restrictions on certain vehicles for novice drivers using crash data from Australia and New Zealand, and vehicle licensing data from New Zealand.     

Hazard perception in novice and experienced drivers: The effects of sleepiness

One driver skill that has been found to correlate with crash risk is hazard perception ability. The purpose of this study was to investigate how hazard perception latencies change between high and low sleepiness for a high risk group (novice drivers) and a lower risk group (experienced drivers). Thirty-two novice drivers (aged 17-24 years) and 30 experienced drivers (aged 28-36) completed a validated video-based hazard perception test, in which participants were asked to anticipate genuine traffic conflicts in footage filmed from the driver's perspective, with separate groups tested at either 10 a.m. (lower sleepiness) or at 3 a.m. (higher sleepiness). We found a significant interaction between sleepiness and experience, indicating that the hazard perception skills of the more experienced drivers were relatively unaffected by mild increases in sleepiness while the inexperienced drivers were significantly slowed. The findings suggest that the disproportionate sleepiness-related accident involvement of young, inexperienced drivers could be partly due to a slowing of their ability to anticipate traffic hazards.     

Novice drivers' accidents and violations--a failure on higher or lower hierarchical levels of driving behaviour

The study compared accident and offence rates of 28 500 novice drivers in Finland. The purpose was to study differences in accident and offence rates between male and female novice drivers of different age. The drivers reported in a mailed questionnaire, how many accidents they had been involved in and how much they had driven during their whole driving career. All the drivers had a driving experience of 6–18 months. Information about offences for a 2-year period was obtained from an official register of drivers' licences. The drivers were classified into three age brackets: 18–20, 21–30 and 31–50 years. The effect of driving experience was controlled by dividing the drivers into different mileage brackets. The data was analysed and the results were discussed in the framework of the hierarchical model of driving behaviour. Young novice drivers and especially young male drivers showed more problems connected to the higher hierarchical levels of driving behaviour than middle-aged novice drivers. The number of accidents and offences was highest among the young males and their accidents took place more often at night than female or older drivers' accidents. Female drivers showed more problems connected to the lower hierarchical levels of driving behaviour, e.g. problems in vehicle handling skills. Ways of measuring accident risk of different driver groups were also discussed, as well as the usefulness and reliability of self-reports in accident studies.     

Naturalistic assessment of novice teenage crash experience

Background

Crash risk is highest during the first months after licensure. Current knowledge about teenagers’ driving exposure and the factors increasing their crash risk is based on self-reported data and crash database analyses. While these research tools are useful, new developments in naturalistic technologies have allowed researchers to examine newly-licensed teenagers’ exposure and crash risk factors in greater detail. The Naturalistic Teenage Driving Study (NTDS) described in this paper is the first study to follow a group of newly-licensed teenagers continuously for 18 months after licensure. The goals of this paper are to compare the crash and near-crash experience of drivers in the NTDS to national trends, to describe the methods and lessons learned in the NTDS, and to provide initial data on driving exposure for these drivers.

Methods

A data acquisition system was installed in the vehicles of 42 newly-licensed teenage drivers 16 years of age during their first 18 months of independent driving. It consisted of cameras, sensors (accelerometers, GPS, yaw, front radar, lane position, and various sensors obtained via the vehicle network), and a computer with removable hard drive. Data on the driving of participating parents was also collected when they drove the instrumented vehicle.

Findings

The primary findings after 18 months included the following: (1) crash and near-crash rates among teenage participants were significantly higher during the first six months of the study than the final 12 months, mirroring the national trends; (2) crash and near-crash rates were significantly higher for teenage than adult (parent) participants, also reflecting national trends; (3) teenaged driving exposure averaged between 507 and 710 km (315–441 miles) per month over the study period, but varied substantially between participants with standard errors representing 8–14 percent of the mean; and (4) crash and near-crash types were very similar for male and female teenage drivers.

Discussion

The findings are the first comparing crash and near-crash rates among novice teenage drivers with those of adults using the same vehicle over the same period of time. The finding of highly elevated crash rates of novice teenagers during the first six months of licensure are consistent with and confirm the archival crash data showing high crash risk for novice teenagers. The NTDS convenience sample of teenage drivers was similar to the US teenage driver population in terms of exposure and crash experience. The dataset is expected be a valuable resource for future in-depth analyses of crash risk, exposure to risky driving conditions, and comparisons of teenage and adult driving performance in various driving situations.     

Time vs. distance as measures of exposure in driving surveys

A survey of drivers carried out in Ontario in 1988 has provided data on time spent driving as well as the distances driven for licensed drivers of both sexes in six age groups and three regions. Substantial differences were found in times, distances, and distance/time ratios among these groups. Men drove 50% greater distances, but spent only 30% more time driving than women; speed, averaged over each day's driving, was lower for older drivers than for younger drivers. Differences in speed reflect differences in the driving done in urban or rural areas, and differences in the opportunity for road crashes; such differences, whether based on units of time or distance, will also affect both the comparisons of accident rates and the perceptions of risk among different groups of drivers. A definition of exposure to risk of road crash is required that considers both time and distance appropriately.     

Driving in fog: The effects of driving experience and visibility on speed compensation and hazard avoidance

Inexperience is one of the strongest predictors for collisions, but it remains unclear how novice drivers differ from experienced drivers in terms of safety-related behavioural adaptations such as speed reduction in the presence of reduced visibility. To investigate the influence of driving experience on behavioural compensations to fog, average speed, speed variability, steering variability, collision rate, and hazard response time were measured in a driving simulator. Experienced drivers drove faster in clear visibility than novice drivers, yet they reduced their speed more in reduced visibility so that both groups drove at the same speed in simulated fog. Compared to experienced drivers, novice drivers had higher hazard response times, greater speed and steering variability, and were the only drivers to have collisions.     

Young drivers' optimism bias for accident risk and driving skill: Accountability and insight experience manipulations

This study aimed to determine whether two brief, low cost interventions would reduce young drivers’ optimism bias for their driving skills and accident risk perceptions. This tendency for such drivers to perceive themselves as more skilful and less prone to driving accidents than their peers may lead to less engagement in precautionary driving behaviours and a greater engagement in more dangerous driving behaviour. 243 young drivers (aged 17–25 years) were randomly allocated to one of three groups: accountability, insight or control. All participants provided both overall and specific situation ratings of their driving skills and accident risk relative to a typical young driver. Prior to completing the questionnaire, those in the accountability condition were first advised that their driving skills and accident risk would be later assessed via a driving simulator. Those in the insight condition first underwent a difficult computer-based hazard perception task designed to provide participants with insight into their potential limitations when responding to hazards in difficult and unpredictable driving situations. Participants in the control condition completed only the questionnaire. Results showed that the accountability manipulation was effective in reducing optimism bias in terms of participants’ comparative ratings of their accident risk in specific situations, though only for less experienced drivers. In contrast, among more experienced males, participants in the insight condition showed greater optimism bias for overall accident risk than their counterparts in the accountability or control groups. There were no effects of the manipulations on drivers’ skills ratings. The differential effects of the two types of manipulations on optimism bias relating to one's accident risk in different subgroups of the young driver sample highlight the importance of targeting interventions for different levels of experience. Accountability interventions may be beneficial for less experienced young drivers but the results suggest exercising caution with the use of insight type interventions, particularly hazard perception style tasks, for more experienced young drivers typically still in the provisional stage of graduated licensing systems.     

Age differences in male drivers' perception of accident risk: the role of perceived driving ability

Young (18-25) and older (35-50) male drivers were compared in their perception of driving risk and confidence in driving ability. Both groups provided responses a questionnaire on accident risk and driving ability and further generated subjective ratings of risk to a series of videotaped sequences depicting various elements of driving behavior. Although young drivers' estimates of accident involvement in the next year were higher than those of older drivers, young drivers gave lower ratings of accident risk for specific driving situations which demanded fast driving reflexes or substantial vehicle-handling skills. Young drivers rated their own risk of an accident and driving abilities as being the same as for older drivers. However, they saw their peers as being significantly higher at risk and having poorer abilities than themselves. Young drivers were more confident in their driving abilities than the older drivers. Evidence is provided to suggest that perceived risk and self-perceived driving abilities are interrelated. Further, the data from young drivers showed two disturbing characteristics: first, a notable dissociation between perceived and actual ability and, second, a tendency to view themselves as immune from the effects of higher levels of risk, which they are prepared to ascribe to their peers but not to themselves.     

Women drivers' behaviour, socio-demographic characteristics and accidents.

The purpose of this study was to examine factors which affect driving behaviour and accident rates in women in Australia. Two groups of women (aged 18-23 and 45-50 years) participating in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, completed a mailed questionnaire on driver behaviour and road accidents. Self reported accident rates in the last 3 years were 1.87 per 100,000 km for the young drivers (n = 1199) and 0.59 per 100,000 km for the mid-age drivers (n = 1564); most accidents involved damage only, not injury. Mean scores for lapses obtained using the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire, were similar in the two age groups and similar to those found in other studies. In contrast, scores for errors and violations for the young women were higher than for the mid-age group and previous reports using the same instruments. Riskier driving behaviour among young women was associated with stress and habitual alcohol consumption. In the mid-age group, poorer driver behaviour scores were related to higher levels of education, feeling rushed, higher habitual alcohol consumption and lower life satisfaction scores. Accident rates in both groups were significantly related to lapses. Women born in non-English speaking countries had significantly higher risk of accidents compared to Australian-born women: relative risk = 3.40, 95% confidence interval (1.93, 5.98) for the young drivers; relative risk = 1.77, 95% confidence interval (1.11, 2.83) for mid-age drivers. These findings support the need for road safety campaigns targeted at young women to reduce dangerous driving practices, such as speeding, 'tail gating' and overtaking on the inside. There is also a need for further research to understand how lifestyle characteristics are associated with higher risk of accidents and to explore factors which might account for the higher risk for women drivers who were born overseas.     

Impaired driving and motor vehicle crashes among Swedish youth: an investigation into drivers' sociodemographic characteristics

Impaired driving is an important road safety problem, and the characteristics of drivers impaired by alcohol or drugs are relevant to targeted interventions. This study considers young drivers' sociodemographic attributes: age, sex, class of origin and educational attainment, based on a national cohort of young Swedish drivers (1988-2000) followed up in police registers for their first motor vehicle crash. Of all crashes reported for these drivers, 946 were where the driver was suspected of being under the influence of alcohol or other substances (corresponding to 6% of all first crashes). Impaired driving significantly increases the odds of severe and fatal injuries, regardless of sociodemographic attributes. Observed differences in the proportions of impaired drivers reveal significant excess risks among males, persons aged 18-19, those from households classified as "workers" and "others" (including, e.g. the long-term unemployed and those on long-term sick leave), and those with low educational attainment. Impaired driving is a risk factor in all sociodemographic strata among young people. Members of some groups are more likely to be found than others among impaired drivers on occasion of first motor vehicle crash.     

The effects of age and experience on accidents with injuries: should the licensing age be raised?

In Canadian Provinces and in several states of the United States the minimal legal age to drive a motor vehicle is 16 years old and in some, it is 15. The excess mortality and morbidity registered by 15 to 24-year-old drivers is well known. Several studies have reported that accident rates decrease with experience, but the effect of the age of new drivers has not been well documented. The objective is to study injury accident rates in terms of the age and experience factors. The data sources are computer files of the Government Insurance Corporation (Société de l'assurance automobile du Québec), which covers all Quebec drivers. For each driver, the file contains birth date, sex, year and month of first license, involvement in accidents, and other parameters. The yearly rates (1970-1984) of new permits per age last birthday and sex show an increase over time, particularly for 16-year-old men. For the period 1979-1984, injury accident involvement rates were computed for all Quebec drivers by age, sex, and driving experience. An experienced driver has been defined as a person who has been licensed for at least one year. The results show, for experienced as well as inexperienced young men (16-18), a high injury accident rate that decreases with age. For women, the rates are much lower and decrease more gradually than for men. This study does not take into account the kilometers driven. Since young drivers (16-18) have the highest accident rates, the question of regulating access to first licensing for such drivers must be examined as a possible strategy for injury prevention.     

Young drivers--reduced crash risk with passengers in the vehicle

Studies have shown that the effect of passengers on accident propensity among young drivers is ambiguous--in some cases positive and some negative. In Sweden, various kinds of information are compiled in registers, including a national accident database and exposure data collected in a national investigation of the driving habits of license holders. Access to such data offers a good opportunity to study crash risks related to driving with and without passengers. This was done for drivers in three different age groups (18-24, 25-64 and >65 years) accompanied by one, two or three or more passengers. Differences in crash risk were estimated using incidence density ratios (IDRs) and 95% confidence intervals. The results show that passengers had an overall protective effect, that is, the crash risk was higher for those who drove alone, regardless of their age or gender. This protective effect increased with every extra passenger (up to eight), indicating that the more passengers in the vehicle, the safer the driving. The influence of passengers was weakest (albeit still positive) among the youngest drivers (ages 18-24 years), especially the males in that group. The protective impact showed the same pattern on all days of the week, but was most marked from Friday to Sunday for most of the drivers, regardless of age.     

Driving performance assessment: effects of traffic accident location and alarm content

According to accident statistics for Taiwan, the two most common traffic accident locations in urban areas are roadway segments and intersections. On roadway segments, most collisions are due to drivers not noticing the status of leading vehicle. At intersections, most collisions are due to the other driver failing to obey traffic signs. Using a driving simulator equipped with a collision warning system, this study investigated driving performance at different accident locations and between different alarm contents, and identified the relationship between crash occurrences and driving performance. Thirty participants, aged 20-29 years, were recruited in this study. Driving performance measures were perception-reaction time, movement-reaction time, speed and a crash. Experimental results indicated that due to different demands for processing information under different traffic conditions, driving performance differed at the two traffic accident locations. On a roadway segment, perception-reaction time for a beep was shorter than the time for a speech message. Nevertheless, at an intersection, a speech message was a great help to drivers and, thus, perception-reaction time was effectively reduced. In addition, logistic regression analysis indicates that perception-movement time had the greatest influence on crash occurrence.     

Hazard perception and driving experience among novice drivers

The crash risk of novice drivers decreases rapidly during the first few months of post-licensing driving, indicating that some important safety-relevant traffic skills are learnt during this period. The present study tested the hypothesis that the risk decrease is related to improved hazard perception skills. A video-based hazard perception/reaction test, measuring reaction times to 31 traffic scenes, was administered to three groups of drivers, having held a licence for 1, 5, and 9 months, respectively, and to a group of drivers who had held their licences for several years. Average reaction times tended to decrease with experience, but the decrease was not significant. There were some significant differences in the expected direction for individual test items, indicating a possible effect of experience. One half of the situations were presented together with a secondary task, in order to investigate effects of increased mental load on hazard perception. Male novice drivers had relatively longer reaction times with the secondary task, compared to both female novice drivers and male experienced drivers. It is concluded that hazard perception as tested here is probably only a minor factor in explaining the initial risk decrease among novice drivers.     

On-road behaviour of younger and older novices during the first six months of driving

Newly qualified drivers are known to have greater crash involvement than more experienced drivers, but does the on-road driving behaviour of young novices differ from that of older novices who might be expected to be more mature and to have different driving needs? Both younger and older novices were compared with experienced drivers in their behaviour driving an instrumented car on three occasions. The three drives were conducted within the novices’ first few months of becoming qualified. All drivers, including both groups of novices, increased their average road speed over the three drives, and all increased their tendency to cut across the central lane marker on bends. The older novices showed some indications of becoming more cautious with experience, by doubling their headway after six months, and by increasing the number of times they glanced into their mirrors at critical points. This increased caution may be attributable to the driving experiences of the older novices, who had experienced twice the crash rate of the younger novices during their first six months of driving.     

Does early training improve driving skills of young novice French drivers?

The aim of this research was to study drivers’ performances and divided attention depending on their initial training. The performances of young novice drivers who received early training, traditionally trained drivers and more experienced drivers were compared during a dual task consisting of a simulated car-following task and a number’ parity judgment task. It was expected that, due to their limited driving experience, the young novice drivers would have more difficulty in adequately distributing their attention between the two tasks. Poorer performances by novice drivers than experienced drivers were therefore expected. The results indicate that traditionally trained drivers had more difficulties in speed regulation and maintaining their position in the lane than drivers with early training and experienced drivers. Performance impairment linked to driving inexperience was also found in the secondary task. The results were interpreted regarding the attentional resources involved in driving with a secondary task and supported the positive effects of French early training.     

Novice drivers’ individual trajectories of driver behavior over the first three years of driving

Identifying the changes in driving behavior that underlie the decrease in crash risk over the first few months of driving is key to efforts to reduce injury and fatality risk in novice drivers. This study represented a secondary data analysis of 1148 drivers who participated in the UK Cohort II study. The Driver Behavior Questionnaire was completed at 6 months and 1, 2 and 3 years after licensure. Linear latent growth models indicated significant increases across development in all four dimensions of aberrant driving behavior under scrutiny: aggressive violations, ordinary violations, errors and slips. Unconditional and conditional latent growth class analyses showed that the observed heterogeneity in individual trajectories was explained by the presence of multiple homogeneous groups of drivers, each exhibiting specific trajectories of aberrant driver behavior. Initial levels of aberrant driver behavior were important in identifying sub-groups of drivers. All classes showed positive slopes; there was no evidence of a group of drivers whose aberrant behavior decreased over time that might explain the decrease in crash involvement observed over this period. Male gender and younger age predicted membership of trajectories with higher levels of aberrant behavior. These findings highlight the importance of early intervention for improving road safety. We discuss the implications of our findings for understanding the behavioral underpinnings of the decrease in crash involvement observed in the early months of driving.     

Factors associated with young drivers' car crash injury: comparisons among learner,provisional, and full licensees

This exploratory study aimed to investigate factors associated with car crash injury among young drivers aged <25 years with different license status. Of special interest were the differences in risk patterns among different license holders of different age groups. Data utilised in this study were obtained from the New South Wales (NSW) police. The results indicated that female young drivers were more at risk of being killed or injured in a crash than males. Some risk factors, in particular environment-related factors, were identified as license-status-and-age specific. On the contrary, disregarding their driving experiences and ages, young drivers were more influenced by their own behaviours and driving conditions. Young drivers of 16–17 years with learner and provisional licenses tended to have increased risk of crash injury due to special road features. Night-time driving seemed to be a problem for older and more experienced drivers only. Fully licensed drivers of 18–19 and 20–24 years were more susceptible to the influence of alcohol. Risk-taking, speeding, fatigue, and carrying many passengers increased the risk of crash injury to car occupants for nearly all young drivers disregarding their ages and driving experiences. The results obtained provided indicative information on areas where the graduated licensing systems in NSW might be effective, and on other areas that might be lacking. A population-based case-control study was proposed to overcome the limitations of this study.