Crash compatibility between cars and light trucks: benefits of lowering front-end energy-absorbing structure in SUVs and pickups

Passenger vehicles are designed to absorb crash energy in frontal crashes through deformation or crush of energy-absorbing structures forward of the occupant compartment. In collisions between cars and light trucks (i.e., pickups and SUVs), however, the capacity of energy-absorption structures may not be fully utilized because mismatches often exist between the heights of these structures in the colliding vehicles. In 2003 automakers voluntarily committed to new design standards aimed at reducing the height mismatches between cars and light trucks. By September 2009 all new light trucks will have either the primary front structure (typically the frame rails) or a secondary structure connected to the primary structure low enough to interact with the primary structures in cars, which for most cars is about the height of the front bumper. To estimate the overall benefit of the voluntary commitment, the real-world crash experience of light trucks already meeting the height-matching criteria was compared with that of light trucks not meeting the criteria for 2000-2003 model light trucks in collisions with passenger cars during calendar years 2001-2004. The estimated benefits of lower front energy-absorbing structure were a 19 percent reduction (p<0.05) in fatality risk to belted car drivers in front-to-front crashes with light trucks and a 19 percent reduction (p<0.05) in fatality risk to car drivers in front-to-driver-side crashes with light trucks.     

Relative fatality risk in different seating positions versus car model year

Fatality risk of drivers compared to right-front passengers is examined vs. car model year (MY) using Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) data for 1975 through 1986. Confounding effects are removed by comparing unrestrained occupants matched in sex and age (to within three years). MY ≥ 1968 cars, which complied with Federal Motor Vehicle Standard 203 (impact protection for the driver) and FMVSS 204 (rearward column displacement), are compared to MY ≤ 1966 cars, which did not comply with these standards. It is found that, compared to right-front passengers in the same cars, drivers had higher relative fatality risks in MY ≥ 1968 cars and lower relative fatality risks in MY ≤ 1966 cars. Because there are so few fatal frontal crash data for MY 1966 and MY 1968 cars, definitive conclusions regarding the effectiveness of FMVSS 203 and 204 in reducing driver fatalities are not possible. However, our analysis, together with the assumption that right-front-passenger fatality risk was the same in 1966 and 1968 MY cars, does suggest that a previous 12% effectiveness estimate is more likely to be high than low.     

The effect of recent trends in vehicle design on U.S. societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled,and their projected future relationship with vehicle mass

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently updated its 2003 and 2010 logistic regression analyses of the effect of a reduction in light-duty vehicle mass on US fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT). The current NHTSA analysis is the most thorough investigation of this issue to date. LBNL's assessment of the analysis indicates that the estimated effect of mass reduction on risk is smaller than in the previous studies, and statistically non-significant for all but the lightest cars.     

Relative fatality risk curve to describe the effect of change in the impact speed on fatality risk of pedestrians struck by a motor vehicle

Models describing the relation between impact speed and fatality risk for pedestrians struck by a motor vehicle have frequently been used by practitioners and scientists in applying an S curve to visualize the importance of speed for the chance of survival. Recent studies have suggested that these risk curves are biased and do not give representative risk values. These studies present new fatality risk curves that show much lower risks of fatality than before, which has caused confusion and misconceptions about how these new curves should be interpreted, and how this should affect speed management policy.     

Crash characteristics and injuries of victims impaired by alcohol versus illicit drugs

Alcohol has long been associated with injury, but the relationship between other drugs and injury is less clear. Blood samples from 894 patients presenting to two Emergency Departments for treatment of motor vehicle injury sustained in passenger cars, station wagons, vans and pickup trucks, were tested for alcohol and other drugs. Results were related to demographic characteristics, including prior history of alcohol and drug use; crash characteristics; and injury characteristics. Alcohol was associated with more severe crashes, but other drugs, in the absence of alcohol, were not. The crashes involving drugs but no alcohol were very similar to those involving neither alcohol nor drugs.     

Firearms in US homes as a risk factor for unintentional gunshot fatality

This study used national data and a matched case-control design to estimate the relative risk of death by an unintentional gunshot associated with having firearms in the home. A sample of adults who died in the United States in 1993 from unintentional gunshot injuries was drawn from the National Mortality Followback Survey (NMFS) (n=84). Twenty controls were sought for each case from the 1994 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and matched to the cases by sex, age group, race, and region of residence (n=1451). Subjects were classified as having or not having guns in the home based interview responses. The relative risk of death by an unintentional gunshot injury, comparing subjects living in homes with and without guns, was 3.7 (95% confidence interval (CI)=1.9-7.2). Adjustment for covariates resulted in little change in the effect estimates. There was evidence of a dose-response effect: compared to subjects living in homes with no guns, the relative risk was 3.4 (95% CI=1.5-7.6) among subjects with one gun and 3.9 (95% CI=2.0-7.8) among subjects with multiple guns in the home. Having handguns in the home was associated with the largest effect estimates. Tests of homogeneity showed that the effect estimates did not vary significantly across categories of the matching variables. Firearms in the home appear to be a risk factor for unintentional gunshot fatality among adults. The magnitude of the observed effect estimates should be compared with those from additional studies.     

The fatality and injury risk of light truck impacts with pedestrians in the United States

In the United States, passenger vehicles are shifting from a fleet populated primarily by cars to a fleet dominated by light trucks and vans (LTVs). Because light trucks are heavier, stiffer, and geometrically more blunt than passenger cars, they pose a dramatically different type of threat to pedestrians. This paper investigates the effect of striking vehicle type on pedestrian fatalities and injuries. The analysis incorporates three major sources of data, the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), the General Estimates System (GES), and the Pedestrian Crash Data Study (PCDS). The paper presents and compares pedestrian impact risk factors for sport utility vehicles, pickup trucks, vans, and cars as developed from analyses of US accident statistics. Pedestrians are found to have a two to three times greater likelihood of dying when struck by an LTV than when struck by a car. Examination of pedestrian injury distributions reveals that, given an impact speed, the probability of serious head and thoracic injury is substantially greater when the striking vehicle is an LTV rather than a car.     

Crash risk factors related to individuals sustaining and drivers following traumatic brain injuries

Objective

Some crashes result in drivers experiencing (or sustaining) a traumatic brain injury (TBI) while other crashes involve drivers that have already experienced a TBI. The objective of this study is to examine the factors that influence these two TBI crash groups.

Methods

Data from the Iowa Department of Public Health's Brain Injury Registry and Department of Transportation's crash records were linked together and used in logistic regression models to predict the likelihood of a driver sustaining a TBI in a crash and those who drive after a TBI.

Results

Between 2001 and 2006, there were 2382 crashes in which an individual sustained a TBI. As expected, a higher likelihood of sustaining a TBI was observed for motorcycle drivers who did not wear a helmet and in crashes that resulted in total or disabling vehicle damage. Focusing specifically on the post-TBI drivers (and not occupants), 1583 were involved in crashes. These post-TBI drivers were less likely to wear seatbelts or have passengers in the vehicle at the time of the crash, and were more likely to crash at night. Post-TBI drivers were also involved in significantly more multiple crashes (about 14%) when compared to drivers who have not experienced a TBI (about 10%) during the study period. When controlling for gender, date of injury, and severity of TBI (using Glasgow Coma Scale), individuals that sustained a TBI when they were younger were more likely to be involved in multiple crashes.

Conclusions

Different factors influence the crash likelihood for those that sustain a TBI in a crash and those that crash following a TBI. In general, post-TBI drivers have a higher occurrence of multiple crashes and this should be further explored to guide driver rehabilitation, evaluation, and training.     

Increased risk of driver fatality due to unrestrained rear-seat passengers in severe frontal crashes

While belt usage among rear-seat passengers is disproportionately lower than their front-seat counterpart, this may have serious consequences in the event of a crash not only for the unbelted rear-seat passenger but also for the front-seat passengers as well. To quantify that effect, the objective of the study is to evaluate the increased likelihood of driver fatality in the presence of unrestrained rear-seat passengers in a severe frontal collision. U.S.-based census data from 2001 to 2009 fatal motor vehicle crashes was used to enroll frontal crashes which involved 1998 or later year vehicle models with belted drivers and at least one adult passenger in the rear left seat behind the driver. Results using multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that the odds of a belt restrained driver sustaining a fatal injury was 137% (95% CI = 95%, 189%) higher when the passenger behind the driver was unbelted in comparison to a belted case while the effects of driver age, sex, speed limit, vehicle body type, airbag deployment and driver ejection were controlled in the model. The likelihood of driver fatality due to an unrestrained rear left passenger increased further (119–197%) in the presence of additional unrestrained rear seat passengers in the rear middle or right seats. The results from the study highlight the fact that future advances to front row passive safety systems (e.g. multi-stage airbag deployment) must be adapted to take into account the effect of unrestrained rear-seat passengers.     

Latent risk and trend models for the evolution of annual fatality numbers in 30 European countries

In this paper a unified methodology is presented for the modelling of the evolution of road safety in 30 European countries. For each country, annual data of the best available exposure indicator and of the number of fatalities were simultaneously analysed with the bivariate latent risk time series model. This model is based on the assumption that the amount of exposure and the number of fatalities are intrinsically related. It captures the dynamic evolution in the fatalities as the product of the dynamic evolution in two latent trends: the trend in the fatality risk and the trend in the exposure to that risk. Before applying the latent risk model to the different countries it was first investigated and tested whether the exposure indicator at hand and the fatalities in each country were in fact related at all. If they were, the latent risk model was applied to that country; if not, a univariate local linear trend model was applied to the fatalities series only, unless the latent risk time series model was found to yield better forecasts than the univariate local linear trend model. In either case, the temporal structure of the unobserved components of the optimal model was established, and structural breaks in the trends related to external events were identified and captured by adding intervention variables to the appropriate components of the model. As a final step, for each country the optimally modelled developments were projected into the future, thus yielding forecasts for the number of fatalities up to and including 2020.     

Contribution of exposure,risk of crash and fatality to explain age- and sex-related differences in traffic-related cyclist mortality rates

This study was designed to quantify the percent contribution of exposure, risk of collision and fatality rate to the association of age and sex with the mortality rates among cyclists in Spain, and to track the changes in these contributions with time. Data were analyzed for 50,042 cyclists involved in road crashes in Spain from 1993 to 2011, and also for a subset of 13,119 non-infractor cyclists involved in collisions with a vehicle whose driver committed an infraction (used as a proxy sample of all cyclists on the road). We used decomposition and quasi-induced exposure methods to obtain the percent contributions of these three components to the mortality rate ratios for each age and sex group compared to males aged 25–34 years. Death rates increased with age, and the main component of this increase was fatality (around 70%). Among younger cyclists, however, the main component of increased death rates was risk of a collision. Males had higher death rates than females in every age group: this rate increased from 6.4 in the 5–14 year old group to 18.8 in the 65–79 year old group. Exposure, the main component of this increase, ranged between 70% and 90% in all age categories, although the fatality component also contributed to this increase. The contributions of exposure, risk of crash and fatality to cyclist death rates were strongly associated with age and sex. Young male cyclists were a high-risk group because all three components tended to increase their mortality rate.     

Using speeding detections and numbers of fatalities to estimate relative risk of a fatality for motorcyclists and car drivers

Precise estimation of the relative risk of motorcyclists being involved in a fatal accident compared to car drivers is difficult. Simple estimates based on the proportions of licenced drivers or riders that are killed in a fatal accident are biased as they do not take into account the exposure to risk. However, exposure is difficult to quantify. Here we adapt the ideas behind the well known induced exposure methods and use available summary data on speeding detections and fatalities for motorcycle riders and car drivers to estimate the relative risk of a fatality for motorcyclists compared to car drivers under mild assumptions. The method is applied to data on motorcycle riders and car drivers in Victoria, Australia in 2010 and a small simulation study is conducted.     

Medical treatment and traffic fatality reductions in industrialized countries

Reductions in traffic-related fatalities in developed industrialized countries have been substantial in the last 30 years. Most analyses have attributed this reduction to changes in vehicle design, better road design, increased seat-belt use, and reductions in driving under the influence of alcohol. This paper analyses the impact of improvements in medical treatment and technology. Data from the International Road and Traffic Accident Database (IRTAD), which includes all developed countries, was used in combination with Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Health Care data. Using proxy measures to account for improvements in medical treatment and technology it is found that these proxy variables are significant and capture much of the residual time trend in the data when they are omitted. Changes in age cohorts, such as fewer young people, also have contributed to a reduction in fatalities. These results suggest that medical technology improvements are associated with reductions in traffic-related fatalities over time.     

Crash risk and aberrant driving behaviors among bus drivers: The role of personality and attitudes towards traffic safety

Several studies have shown that personality traits and attitudes toward traffic safety predict aberrant driving behaviors and crash involvement. However, this process has not been adequately investigated in professional drivers, such as bus drivers. The present study used a personality–attitudes model to assess whether personality traits predicted aberrant self-reported driving behaviors (driving violations, lapses, and errors) both directly and indirectly, through the effects of attitudes towards traffic safety in a large sample of bus drivers. Additionally, the relationship between aberrant self-reported driving behaviors and crash risk was also assessed.     

Understanding safe performance in rapidly evolving systems: a risk management analysis of the 2010 US financial market Flash Crash with Rasmussen's risk management framework

Systemic events or widespread disruptions in financial markets like the Flash Crash are a public concern as they jeopardise investors’ confidence in financial markets and result in financial losses for market participants. Federal regulations for financial markets do not keep pace with the evolution and growth of financial technology including advances in algorithmic and high-frequency trading (HFT). We report an analysis of the Flash Crash which occurred on 6 May 2010 using Rasmussen's 1997 risk management framework. While the framework has been validated on a number of well-documented accidents, our work examines the framework in the context of a large-scale adverse event associated with complex technologies and automated systems capable of evolving over time. Our contribution is a set of implications of the Flash Crash associated with Rasmussen's propositions. These implications would inform regulators and risk assessment methods for rapidly evolving complex socio-technical systems.     

Safety impacts due to the incompatibility of SUVs, minivans, and pickup trucks in two-vehicle collisions

This research sets out to estimate the effects of vehicle incompatibility on the risk of death or major injury to drivers involved in two-vehicle collisions.Based on data for 2,999,395 drivers, logistic regression was used to model the risk of driver death or major injury (defined has being hospitalized). Our analyses show that pickup trucks, minivans and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) are more aggressive than cars for the driver of the other vehicle and more protective for their own drivers. The effect of the pickups is more pronounced in terms of aggressivity. The point estimates are comparable to those in the Toy and Hammitt study [Toy, E.L., Hammitt, J.K., 2003. Safety impacts of SUVs, minivans, and pickup trucks in two-vehicle crashes. Risk Analysis 23, 641–650], but, in contrast to that study, we are now able to establish that a greater number of these effects are statistically significant with a larger sample size.Like vehicle mass and type, other characteristics of drivers and the circumstances of the collision influence the driver’s condition after impact. Male drivers, older drivers, drivers who are not wearing safety belts, collisions occurring in a higher speed zone and head-on collisions significantly increase the risk of death. Except for the driver’s sex, all of these categories are also associated with an increased risk of death or of being hospitalized after being involved in a two-vehicle collision. For this risk, a significant increase is associated with female drivers.     

The risk of pedestrian injury and fatality in collisions with motor vehicles, a social ecological study of state routes and city streets in King County, Washington

This study examined the correlates of injury severity using police records of pedestrian–motor-vehicle collisions on state routes and city streets in King County, Washington. Levels of influence on collision outcome considered (1) the characteristics of individual pedestrians and drivers and their actions; (2) the road environment; and (3) the neighborhood environment. Binary logistic regressions served to estimate the risk of a pedestrian being severely injured or dying versus suffering minor or no injury.Significant individual-level influences on injury severity were confirmed for both types of roads: pedestrians being older or younger; the vehicle moving straight on the roadway. New variables associated with increased risk of severe injury or death included: having more than two pedestrians involved in a collision; and on city streets, the driver being inebriated.Road intersection design was significant only in the state route models, with pedestrians crossing at intersections without signals increasing the risk of being injured or dying.Adjusting for pedestrians’ and drivers’ characteristics and actions, neighborhood medium home values and higher residential densities increased the risk of injury or death. No other road or neighborhood environment variable remained significant, suggesting that pedestrians were not safer in areas with high pedestrian activity.     

Comparison of injury mortality risk in motor vehicle crash versus other etiologies

The mortality risk ratio (MRR), a measure of the proportion of people who died that sustained a given injury, is reported to be among the most powerful discriminators of mortality following trauma. The primary aim was to determine whether mechanistic differences exist and are quantifiable when comparing MRR-based injury severity across two broadly defined etiologies (motor vehicle crash (MVC) versus non-MVC) for the clarification of important injury types that have some room for improvement by emergency treatment and vehicle design. All International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision (ICD-9) coded injuries in the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) database were stratified into MVC and non-MVC groups and the MRR for each injury was computed within each group. Injuries were classified as 11 different types for MRR comparison between etiologies. Overall, MRRs for specific injuries were 10–18% lower for MVC compared to non-MVC etiologies. MVCs however produced much higher mean MRRs for crushing injuries (0.184 versus 0.072) and internal injuries to the thorax, abdomen, and pelvis (0.200 versus 0.169). Non-MVCs produced much higher MRRs for intracranial injuries (0.199 versus 0.250). Analysis of the top 95% most frequent MVC injuries revealed higher MVC MRR values for 78% of the injuries with MRR ratios indicating an average 50% increase in a given injury's MRR when MVC was the etiology. Addressing the large differences in MRR in between etiologies for identical injuries could provide a reduction in fatalities and may be important to patient triage and vehicle safety design.     

The estimated effect of mass or footprint reduction in recent light-duty vehicles on U.S. societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently updated its 2003 and 2010 logistic regression analyses of the effect of a reduction in light-duty vehicle mass on US societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT; Kahane, 2012). Societal fatality risk includes the risk to both the occupants of the case vehicle as well as any crash partner or pedestrians. The current analysis is the most thorough investigation of this issue to date. This paper replicates the Kahane analysis and extends it by testing the sensitivity of his results to changes in the definition of risk, and the data and control variables used in the regression models. An assessment by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) indicates that the estimated effect of mass reduction on risk is smaller than in Kahane's previous studies, and is statistically non-significant for all but the lightest cars (Wenzel, 2012a). The estimated effects of a reduction in mass or footprint (i.e. wheelbase times track width) are small relative to other vehicle, driver, and crash variables used in the regression models. The recent historical correlation between mass and footprint is not so large to prohibit including both variables in the same regression model; excluding footprint from the model, i.e. allowing footprint to decrease with mass, increases the estimated detrimental effect of mass reduction on risk in cars and crossover utility vehicles (CUVs)/minivans, but has virtually no effect on light trucks. Analysis by footprint deciles indicates that risk does not consistently increase with reduced mass for vehicles of similar footprint. Finally, the estimated effects of mass and footprint reduction are sensitive to the measure of exposure used (fatalities per induced exposure crash, rather than per VMT), as well as other changes in the data or control variables used. It appears that the safety penalty from lower mass can be mitigated with careful vehicle design, and that manufacturers can reduce mass as a strategy to increase their vehicles’ fuel economy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions without necessarily compromising societal safety.     

Occupant injury and fatality in general aviation aircraft for which dynamic crash testing is certification-mandated

Towards further improving general aviation aircraft crashworthiness, multi-axis dynamic tests have been required for aircraft certification (14CFR23.562) since 1985. The objective of this study was to determine if occupants in aircraft certified to these higher crashworthiness standards show a mitigated fraction of fatal accidents and/or injury severity.