Older drivers and road safety: the acceptability of a range of intervention measures

A survey questionnaire was used to ascertain the views of 1932 UK drivers aged between 50 and 90 on a range of measures designed to promote safer driving among the elderly. Factor analysis of the items produced six factors, relating to statistically distinct types of measure. Differences in acceptability on the basis of age and sex were explored. Ratings of the effectiveness of each measure revealed little consensus about which measures would be most effective. Compulsory re-testing after a driving ban, a police power to require an assessment of the driving of anyone observed driving in a risky manner, and a requirement for opticians to report to the licensing authority any driver with sight problems likely to affect driving emerged as the individual measures offering the best combination of acceptability and perceived effectiveness.     

The impact of driver age on lost life years for other road users in France: A population based study of crash-involved road users

BACKGROUND: One of the concerns in road safety is the threat older drivers may pose to other road users. Using the rate of lost life years, the present study provides a public health approach to quantify this potential threat. METHODS: A total of 1570686 motorised vehicle drivers or motorcycle riders and 652246 non-drivers, i.e. vehicle passengers, pedestrians and cyclists involved in injury crashes in France between 1996 and 2004, were included in a population based cross-sectional study. Fatality rates and rate of lost life years for each crash-involved driver age class were calculated for the drivers themselves and for other road users. RESULTS: The study has shown a significant reduction in the rate of lost life years for crash-involved other road users (whether passengers, pedestrians, cyclists or opposing drivers) as driver age increases. Other road users lost half as many years of life when involved in crashes with drivers aged over 85 than with drivers under 65 (1.26 and 2.32 per 100 expected remaining life years, respectively). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that among road users involved in injury crashes, older drivers are less dangerous for the other road users. By attributing other road users' lost life years to each driver age, this study represents a new contribution to the debate about ageing and road safety.     

From market fixing to market-creating: a new framework for innovation policy

Many countries are pursuing innovation-led “smart” growth, which requires long-run strategic investments and public policies that aim to create and shape markets, rather than just “fixing” markets or systems. Market creation has characterized the kind of mission-oriented investments that led to putting a man on the moon and are currently galvanizing green innovation. Mission-oriented innovation has required public agencies to not only “de-risk” the private sector, but also to lead the direct creation of new technological opportunities and market landscapes. This paper considers four key issues that arise from a market-creating framework for policy: (1) decision-making on the direction of change; (2) the nature of (public and private) organizations that can welcome the underlying uncertainty and discovery process; (3) the evaluation of mission-oriented and market-creation policies; and (4) the ways in which both risks and rewards can be shared so that smart growth can also result in inclusive growth.     

Causation mechanisms in car-to-vulnerable road user crashes: Implications for active safety systems

Vulnerable road users (VRUs), such as pedestrians and bicyclists, are often involved in crashes with passenger cars. One way to prevent these crashes is to deploy active safety systems that support the car drivers and/or VRUs. However, to develop such systems, a thorough understanding of crash causation mechanisms is required. The aim of this study is to identify crash causation mechanisms from the perspective of the VRUs, and to explore the implications of these mechanisms for the development of active safety systems. Data originate from the European project SafetyNet, where 995 crashes were in-depth investigated using the SafetyNet Accident Causation System (SNACS). To limit the scope, this study analyzed only intersection crashes involving VRUs. A total of 56 VRU crashes were aggregated. Results suggest that, while 30% of the VRUs did not see the conflict car due to visual obstructions in the traffic environment, 70% of the VRUs saw the car before the collision, but still misunderstood the traffic situation and/or made an inadequate plan of action. An important implication that follows from this is that, while detection of cars is clearly an issue that needs to be addressed, it is even more important to help the VRUs to correctly understand traffic situation (e.g., does the driver intend to slow down, and if s/he does, is it to let the VRU cross or for some other reason?). The former issue suggests a role for various cooperative active safety systems, as the obstacles are generally impenetrable with regular sensors. The latter issue is less straightforward. While various systems can be proposed, such as providing gap size estimation and reducing the car speed variability, the functional merits of each such a system need to be further investigated.     

Bayesian analysis for zero-inflated regression models with the power prior: Applications to road safety countermeasures

We consider zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to analyze discrete count data containing a considerable amount of zero observations. Analysis of current data could be empirically feasible if we utilize similar data based on previous studies. Ibrahim and Chen (2000) proposed the power prior to incorporate certain information from the historical data available from previous studies. The power prior is constructed by raising the likelihood function of the historical data to the power a₀, where 0≤a₀≤1. The power prior is a useful informative prior in Bayesian inference. We estimate regression coefficients associated with several safety countermeasures. We use Markov chain and Monte Carlo techniques to execute some computations. The empirical results show that the zero-inflated models with the power prior perform better than the frequentist approach.     

Application of micro Markov models for quantitative safety assessment to determine safety integrity levels as defined by the IEC 61508 standard for functional safety

This paper presents a method that will drastically reduce the calculation effort required to obtain quantitative safety and reliability assessments to determine safety integrity levels for applications in the process industry. The method described combines all benefits of Markov modeling with the practical benefits of reliability block diagrams.     

From the primordial soup to self-driving cars: standards and their role in natural and technological innovation

Standards are specifications to which the elements of a technology must conform. Here, we apply this notion to the biochemical ‘technologies'' of nature, where objects like DNA and proteins, as well as processes like the regulation of gene activity are highly standardized. We introduce the concept of standards with multiple examples, ranging from the ancient genetic material RNA, to Palaeolithic stone axes, and digital electronics, and we discuss common ways in which standards emerge in nature and technology. We then focus on the question of how standards can facilitate technological and biological innovation. Innovation-enhancing standards include those of proteins and digital electronics. They share common features, such as that few standardized building blocks can be combined through standard interfaces to create myriad useful objects or processes. We argue that such features will also characterize the most innovation-enhancing standards of future technologies.     

Sources of error in road safety scheme evaluation: a method to deal with outdated accident prediction models

This paper considers the errors that arise in using outdated accident prediction models in road safety scheme evaluation. Methods to correct for regression-to-mean (RTM) effects in scheme evaluation normally rely on the use of accident prediction models. However, because accident risk tends to decline over time, such models tend to become outdated and the estimated treatment effect is then exaggerated. A new correction procedure is described which can effectively eliminate such errors.     

Willingness to pay for road safety and estimates of the risk of death: evidence from a Swedish contingent valuation study

We examine how WTP for a reduction in road-mortality risk varies with different individual characteristics and how subjective mortality-risk estimates differ from objective (statistical) mortality-risk values. Using data from a Swedish contingent valuation study, we find some support that WTP declines with age and background risk, but we find no support that WTP varies with health status. Further, we find that respondents underassess their own mortality risks, both road- and total-mortality risks, compared to the objective risk measures for Sweden at the time of the survey.     

From Wreck Cove to Voisey's Bay: the evolution of federal environmental assessment in Canada

Canadian environmental assessment has evolved significantly from the embarrassing Wreck Cove hydroelectric project experience in the mid-1970s to the more exemplary case of the Voisey's Bay Mine and Mill project, approved in 2002. Over this period, policy and law reforms have slowly made federal assessment requirements more demanding, open and mandatory. Viewed from a sustainability perspective, this evolution has been generally positive, but insufficient. While further improvements are possible and desirable, the experience of process reform in Canada so far suggests that they will be resisted and gradual.     

The influence of economic incentives linked to road safety indicators on accidents: The case of toll concessions in Spain

The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether the incentives incorporated in toll highway concession contracts in order to encourage private operators to adopt measures to reduce accidents are actually effective at improving safety. To this end, we implemented negative binomial regression models using information about highway characteristics and accident data from toll highway concessions in Spain from 2007 to 2009. Our results show that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not managed by the contractor, such as the annual average daily traffic (AADT), the percentage of heavy vehicles on the highway, number of lanes, number of intersections and average speed; the implementation of these incentives has a positive influence on the reduction of accidents and injuries. Consequently, this measure seems to be an effective way of improving safety performance in road networks.     

Calibration of skill and judgment in driving: Development of a conceptual framework and the implications for road safety

Humans often make inflated or erroneous estimates of their own ability or performance. Such errors in calibration can be due to incomplete processing, neglect of available information or due to improper weighing or integration of the information and can impact our decision-making, risk tolerance, and behaviors. In the driving context, these outcomes can have important implications for safety. The current paper discusses the notion of calibration in the context of self-appraisals and self-competence as well as in models of self-regulation in driving. We further develop a conceptual framework for calibration in the driving context borrowing from earlier models of momentary demand regulation, information processing, and lens models for information selection and utilization. Finally, using the model we describe the implications for calibration (or, more specifically, errors in calibration) for our understanding of driver distraction, in-vehicle automation and autonomous vehicles, and the training of novice and inexperienced drivers.     

Five road safety education programmes for young adolescent pedestrians and cyclists: A multi-programme evaluation in a field setting

A practical approach was developed to assess and compare the effects of five short road safety education (RSE) programmes for young adolescents that does not rely on injury or crash data but uses self reported behaviour. Questionnaires were administered just before and about one month after participation in the RSE programmes, both to youngsters who had participated in a RSE programme, the intervention group, and to a comparable reference group of youngsters who had not, the reference group. For each RSE programme, the answers to the questionnaires in the pre- and post-test were checked for internal consistency and then condensed into a single safety score using categorical principal components analysis. Next, an analysis of covariance was performed on the obtained safety scores in order to compare the post-test scores of the intervention and reference groups, corrected for their corresponding pre-test scores. It was found that three out of five RSE programmes resulted in significantly improved self-reported safety behaviour. However, the proportions of participants that changed their behaviour relative to the reference group were small, ranging from 3% to 20%. Comparisons among programme types showed cognitive approaches not to differ in effect from programmes that used fear-appeal approaches. The method used provides a useful tool to assess and compare the effects of different education programmes on self-reported behaviour.     

From global to local: impact assessment and social implications related to wind energy projects in Oaxaca,Mexico

In order to forecast likely impacts, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) has been applied worldwide. There are numerous social and cultural impacts that can hardly be addressed in a single EIA, and raise the awareness of social issues and proper assessment therein. This paper analyzes the social conflicts related to wind development projects in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Mexico using a qualitative approach. By conducting a Constellation Analysis (CA) in our case studies, this article aims at: 1) identifying the challenges and improvement opportunities for the social and environmental assessment of wind energy projects in Oaxaca, and 2) presenting CA as a novel approach to visualize and identify social and environmental issues. This paper emphasizes the relevance of earlier assessment of social implications to projects. This example can contribute to a better understanding of further research at Mexico’s regional and national levels, as well as in other regions or countries with similar development patterns.

Abbreviations: CA: Constellation Analysis; CDM: Clean Development Mechanism; CFE as in Spanish: Federal Electricity Commission; CIC: Community Interest Company; EIA: Environmental Impact Assessment; ESF: Environmental and Social Framework; FPIC: Free, Prior and Informed Consent; IFC: International Finance Corporation; ILO: International Labour Organization; LGEEPA as in Spanish: General Law on Ecological Balance and Environmental Protection; NEPA: National Environmental Policy Act; PDD: Project Design Document; SEMARNAT as in Spanish: Secretariat of Environment and Natural Resources; SENER as in Spanish: Secretariat of Energy; SIA: Social Impact Assessment; UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; WB: World Bank.     

From impact assessment to effective management plans: learning from the Great Brak Estuary in South Africa

In 1990, the environmental impacts of an upstream dam on the Great Brak town and estuary were assessed and a management plan and monitoring programme were devised. In a recent review of the monitoring results, planned water releases and interventions in the form of timely mouth breaching were found to have ensured that, although the estuary's abiotic functioning has altered, its biotic health has not deteriorated over the last ten years. The lessons learned are captured in the revised management plan of 2004, which exhibits a clear shift to explicit communication plans and operational procedures, indicating that the initial environmental impact assessment (EIA) products were rudimentary. We argue that learning-through-doing and active public participation in the Great Brak case are essential ingredients in the adaptive management that is fundamental to successful EIA follow-up.     

From neighbors to future generations: we are all together! On integration in impact assessment practice

Impact assessment (IA) practice unfolded into several branches. Concerns that the proliferation of assessment types may impair effectiveness and nurture arguments detracting its qualities are voiced and result in calls for integration. This paper responds to the argument that integration could be achieved through better scoping. Additional evidence of specialization is provided while the Environmental and Social Performance Standards adopted by the International Finance Corporation are commented as an integrative approach to IA. Obstacles to better scoping are discussed.     

On the backlog-sequencing decision for extending the applicability of ConWIP to high-variety contexts: an assessment by simulation

Constant Work-in-Process (ConWIP) is a card-based control system that was developed for simple flow shops – a lack of load-balancing capabilities hinders its application to more complex shops. In contrast, load balancing is an integral part of Workload Control, a production planning and control concept developed for high-variety environments. One means of load balancing evident in the Workload Control literature is through the use of a capacity slack-based backlog-sequencing rule. This study therefore investigates the potential of the backlog-sequencing decision to improve load balancing in the context of ConWIP, thereby making it suitable for more complex, high-variety environments. Using simulation, we demonstrate that: (i) the choice of backlog-sequencing rule significantly impacts throughput times and tardiness-related performance measures; and (ii) capacity slack-based sequencing rules achieve significant performance improvements over ‘classical’ ConWIP backlog-sequencing rules. These results significantly extend the applicability of ConWIP. Results from the Workload Control literature however do not directly translate across to ConWIP. The simplified release procedure of ConWIP makes backlog-sequencing based on planned release dates dysfunctional. This negatively impacts the performance of modified capacity slack-based sequencing rules that were recently shown to be the best choice for Workload Control.     

From speculation to reality: Enhancing anticipatory ethics for emerging technologies (ATE) in practice

Various approaches have emerged over the last several decades to meet the challenges and complexities of anticipating and responding to the potential impacts of emerging technologies. Although many of the existing approaches share similarities, they each have shortfalls. This paper takes as the object of its study Anticipatory Ethics for Emerging Technologies (ATE) to technology assessment, given that it was formatted to address many of the privations characterising parallel approaches. The ATE approach, also in practice, presents certain areas for retooling, such as how it characterises levels and objects of analysis. This paper results from the work done with the TechEthos Horizon 2020 project in evaluating the ethical, legal, and social impacts of climate engineering, digital extended reality, and neurotechnologies. To meet the challenges these technology families present, this paper aims to enhance the ATE framework to encompass the variety of human processes and material forms, functions, and applications that comprise the socio-technical systems in which these technologies are embedded.