A test of Rasmussen's risk management framework in the food safety domain: BSE in the UK

In 1986, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) was identified in the UK. Millions of BSE-infected cows were slaughtered and over 150 people contracted variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease, an inevitably fatal human form of BSE. Tragic incidents such as this provide valuable opportunities to understand and improve the safety of complex socio-technical systems. By studying accidents, knowledge can be gained that can improve system safety. The purpose of this article is to test the usefulness of Rasmussen's risk management framework for explaining how and why accidents occur in the food production domain. This was accomplished by using the framework to retrospectively investigate how and why BSE was transmitted through the human and animal food supply in the UK from 1986 to 1996. More specifically, an AcciMap and Conflict Map were constructed to represent contributing factors of the epidemic according to the structure of Rasmussen's framework. These factors were used to test the seven predictions made by the framework. All seven predictions were supported by the evidence, indicating that Rasmussen's risk management framework shows promise as a theoretically driven explanation of how and why accidents happen in complex socio-technical systems, particularly in the food production domain.     

Understanding safe performance in rapidly evolving systems: a risk management analysis of the 2010 US financial market Flash Crash with Rasmussen's risk management framework

Systemic events or widespread disruptions in financial markets like the Flash Crash are a public concern as they jeopardise investors’ confidence in financial markets and result in financial losses for market participants. Federal regulations for financial markets do not keep pace with the evolution and growth of financial technology including advances in algorithmic and high-frequency trading (HFT). We report an analysis of the Flash Crash which occurred on 6 May 2010 using Rasmussen's 1997 risk management framework. While the framework has been validated on a number of well-documented accidents, our work examines the framework in the context of a large-scale adverse event associated with complex technologies and automated systems capable of evolving over time. Our contribution is a set of implications of the Flash Crash associated with Rasmussen's propositions. These implications would inform regulators and risk assessment methods for rapidly evolving complex socio-technical systems.     

Operational safety practices as determinants of machinery-related injury on Saskatchewan farms

Agricultural machinery is a major source of injury on farms. The importance of machinery safety practices as potential determinants of injury remains incompletely understood. We examined two such safety practices as risk factors for injury: (1) the presence of safety devices on machinery and (2) low levels of routine machinery maintenance. Our data source was the Saskatchewan Farm Injury Cohort baseline survey (n = 2390 farms). Factor analysis was used to create measures of the two operational safety practices. The farm was the unit for all analyses and associations were evaluated using multiple Poisson regression models. Limited presence of safety devices on machinery during farm operations was associated with higher risks for injury (RR 1.94; 95% CI 1.13-3.33; p_trend = 0.02). Lower routine maintenance scores were associated with significantly reduced risks for injury (RR 0.54; 95% CI 0.29-0.98; p_trend = 0.05). The first finding implies that injury prevention programs require continued focus on the use of safety devices on machinery. The second finding could indicate that maintenance itself is a risk factor or that more modern equipment that requires less maintenance places the operator at lower risk. These findings provide etiological data that confirms the practical importance of operational safety practices as components of injury control strategies on farms.     

Analysis of the stability of PTW riders in autonomous braking scenarios

While fatalities of car occupants in the EU decreased remarkably over the last decade, Powered Two Wheelers (PTWs) fatalities still increase following the increase of PTW ownership. Autonomous braking systems have been implemented in several types of vehicles and are presently addressed by research in the field of PTWs. A major concern in this context is the rider stability. Experiments with volunteers were performed in order to find out whether autonomous braking for PTWs will produce a greater instability of the rider in comparison to manual braking. The PTW's braking conditions were simulated in a laboratory with a motorcycle mock-up mounted on a sled, which was accelerated with an average of 0.35 g. The motion of the rider was captured in autonomous braking scenarios with and without pre-warning as well as in manual braking scenarios. No significant differences between the scenarios were found with respect to maximum forward displacement of the volunteer's torso and head (p < 0.05). By performing clustering analysis on two kinematic parameters, two different strategies of the volunteers were identified. They were not related to the braking scenarios. A relation of the clusters with the initial posture represented by the elbow angle was revealed (p < 0.05). It is concluded that autonomous braking at low deceleration will not cause significant instabilities of the rider in comparison to manual braking in idealized laboratory conditions. Based on this, further research into the development and implementation of autonomous braking systems for PTWs, e.g. by extensive riding tests, seems valuable.     

Predictors of road crossing safety in pedestrians with Parkinson's disease

Road-crossing safety is an important issue in an aging society. Information regarding the risk of crossing the street to pedestrians with Parkinson's disease (PD) is limited. To assess the risk and predictors of unsafe crossing behaviors in patients with PD, we compared 31 pedestrians with mild-to-moderate PD to 50 age/gender/education-matched controls using a battery of cognitive, visual, and motor tests. With a simulated simple street-crossing situation, we determined the remaining time and safety margin for each participant in different traffic situations, including variable motor vehicle speed, time gap, and time of the day. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated by logistic regression models. We found that pedestrians with PD were more vulnerable to traffic accidents than controls (OR 1.61 [1.28–2.02], P = 0.01). The risk of crossing road correlated in a dose-dependent manner with the severity of PD, based on both Hoehn and Yahr (H&Y) stages and unified Parkinson's disease rating scale (UPDRS) motor scores (OR 1.13 for each increasing point of UPDSR, P < 0.01). Among PD patients, scores of clock drawing test (OR 0.8 [0.74–0.88], P < 0.01) and visual form discrimination (OR 1.14 [1.07–1.22], P < 0.01) predicted worsening of safety errors, rather than executive function. Environmental factors, such as fast approaching motor vehicle speed (OR 4.50 [2.92–6.95], P < 0.01), short time gap (OR 45.98 [27.04–78.18], P < 0.01), and time of day (OR 4.45 [3.11–6.36], P < 0.01) also affected road-crossing safety. Future large sample studies are needed to confirm our findings. Training programs or portable stimulator devices that compensate for the visual-spatial disabilities of PD patients are required to improve road safety for PD patients.     

The sociotechnical constitution of cognitive work analysis: roles,affordances and malfunctions

Analysis of everyday work practices in sociotechnical systems for eliciting design/intervention requirements involves appropriate work analysis frameworks. The current article provides an extension to one such framework — Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) — by scrutinising its sociotechnical basis. CWA's forte depends on its ‘design for adaptation’, system related operations, and operators. In contrast, sociotechnical work systems require not only operators and adaptation, but also a significant emphasis on ‘users’ and ‘appropriation’. The current article extends CWA (based on Rasmussen's original concepts) for users; subsequently allowing for system flexibility and possibilities of ‘appropriation’ within acceptable boundaries of the system's correct functioning. To this end, the first phase of Work Domain Analysis is extended by adding a new layer to the abstraction hierarchy (AH), based on Rasmussen's original insights.     

Family climate for road safety: A new concept and measure

This research adapted the workplace concept of safety climate to the domain of safe driving, defining a new construct of “family climate for road safety”. Four studies were conducted in Israel with the aim of developing and validating a multidimensional instrument to assess this construct among young drivers. Study 1 (n = 632) focused on developing the Family Climate for Road Safety Scale (FCRSS), a self-report scale assessing the family climate by means of seven aspects of the parent–child relationship: Modeling, Feedback, Communication, Monitoring, Noncommitment, Messages, and Limits. Significant differences were found between young men and women on all factors. In addition, significant associations were found between the FCRSS factors on the one hand, and the reported frequency of risky driving and personal commitment to safety on the other. Studies 2–4 confirmed the factorial structure of the FCRSS and the reliability of its factors, adding to its criterion and convergent validity. Study 2 (n = 178) yielded significant associations between the scale and young drivers’ perception of their parents as involved, encouraging autonomy, and providing warmth; Study 3 (n = 117) revealed significant associations between the scale and youngsters’ reported proneness to take risks while driving, as well as significant associations between the factors and various dimensions of family functioning; and Study 4 (n = 156) found associations between the FCRSS factors and both driving styles (risky, angry, anxious, careful) and family cohesion and adaptability. The discussion deals with the validity and utility of the concept of family climate for road safety and its measurement, addressing the practical implications for road safety.     

Young drivers’ attitudes toward accompanied driving: A new multidimensional measure

Four studies were conducted in order to develop and validate a multidimensional instrument to assess attitudes toward accompanied driving among young drivers. Study 1 (n = 841) focused on developing the Attitudes Toward Accompanied Driving Scale (ATADS), a self-report scale based on five previously conceptualized domains of attitudes. Factor analysis revealed the five hypothesized factors: Tension, Relatedness, Disapproval, Avoidance, and Anxiety. In addition, significant associations were found between these factors and gender, age, and the assessment of reckless driving as risky. Study 2 (n = 651) adopted a developmental approach, comparing the attitudes of participants in various stages of licensure. Disapproval and Tension were found to be higher, and Relatedness lower, among participants who had not yet begun driving instruction than among those who were taking driving lessons or had already obtained a license. Study 3 (n = 160) revealed associations between the five ATADS factors and perceived driving costs and benefits. In Study 4 (n = 193), associations were found between these factors and driver's self-image, with a combination of ATADS factors, self-image, and gender contributing to the explained variance of two outcome variables: driving self-efficacy, and reported frequency of reckless driving. The discussion focuses on the validity and utility of the new measure of young drivers’ attitudes toward accompanied driving, stressing its practical implications for road safety.     

A prospective study of children aged <16 years in motor vehicle collisions in Norway: Severe injuries are observed predominantly in older children and are associated with restraint misuse

Objective

The implementation of the compulsory wearing of seat belts (SBs) for children and improvements in child restraint systems have reduced the number of deaths and severe injuries among children involved in motor vehicle (MV) collisions (MVCs). Establishing the characteristics predictive of such injuries may provide the basis for targeted safety campaigns and lead to a further reduction in mortality and morbidity among children involved in MVCs. This study performed a multidisciplinary investigation among child occupants involved in MVCs to elucidate injury mechanisms, evaluate the safety measures used and determine the characteristics that are predictive of injury.

Methods

A prospective study was conducted of all child occupants aged <16 years involved in severe MVCs in south-eastern Norway during 2009–2013. The exterior and interior of the MVs were investigated and the injured children were medically examined. Supplementary information was obtained from witnesses, the crash victims, police reports, medical records and reconstructions. Each case was reviewed by a multidisciplinary team to assess the mechanism of injury.

Results

In total, 158 child occupants involved in 100 MVCs were investigated, of which 27 (17%) exhibited Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) scores of 2+ injuries and 15 (9%) exhibited AIS 3+ injuries. None of the children died. Of those with AIS 2+ injuries (n = 27), 89% (n = 24) were involved in frontal impact collisions and 11% (3/27) were involved in side impacts. Multivariate analysis revealed that restraint misuse, age, the prevailing lighting conditions and ΔV were all independently correlated with AIS 2+ injuries. Safety errors were found in 74% (20/27) of those with AIS 2+ injuries and 93% (14/15) of those with AIS 3+ injuries. The most common safety error was misuse of restraints, and in particular loose and/or improperly positioned SBs.

Conclusion

The risk of injury among child occupants is significantly higher when the child occupants are exposed to safety errors within the interior of the vehicle. Future campaigns should focus on the prevention of restraint misuse and unsecured objects in the passenger compartment or boot.     

Book review

The goal of this study is to extend Rasmussen's framework for risk management to research organisations having to deal with reduced income from government funding and increased market orientation. One human factors research organisation was studied in detail. Using archival records, changes were studied over the period 1989–2010. The results showed an increase in income from market funding relative to government funding, and a decrease in written output. Predictions by stress–strain theory were confirmed in that during the first 5 years of the period under consideration, a linear relationship between the increase in market funding and written output was observed, whereas a nonlinear relationship was observed in the next 5–10 years, indicating a larger decrease in written output than would be expected. Generally, the results show that research organisations are adaptive systems that trade off resource allocation to either commercial activities or scientific activities, depending on incentive schemes.     

Does a cycle training course improve cycling skills in children?

Introduction

The aim of this study was to determine the short-term effects of cycle training on basic cycling skills in children from the 4th grade of elementary school. Furthermore, the influence of gender, socio-economic status (SES) and initial cycling skills level on the effects of the cycle training was investigated.

Methods

Five participating schools were randomly assigned to the intervention (n = 3) or control condition (n = 2). Children's cycling skills were assessed, using a practical cycling test, at baseline and immediately after the intervention. At baseline, all participating children received a short parental questionnaire on child's demographic and family factors. After the pre-test, cycle training took place only in the intervention schools. Repeated measure analyses were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the cycle training.

Results

The cycle training had a statistically significant effect on children's total cycling skill (F = 46.9, p < 0.001). On mounting the bicycle and start to cycle (F = 2.6, p = 0.11), cycling one handed (F = 2.0, p = 0.16), and cycling on a sloping surface (F = 1.5, p = 0.23), no statistically significant effects were detected. On all other cycling skills, time × condition interaction effects were statistically significant. Gender, SES and initial cycling skills level had no significant influence on the effects of the cycle training.

Conclusion

This study showed that a cycle training of only three sessions was effective to improve children's cycling skills at short term and that cycle training within a traffic-free environment seems to be a useful first step in the development of safe cycling behaviors.     

Individual driver risk assessment using naturalistic driving data

Driving risk varies substantially among drivers. Identifying and predicting high-risk drivers will greatly benefit the development of proactive driver education programs and safety countermeasures. The objective of this study is twofold: (1) to identify factors associated with individual driver risk and (2) predict high-risk drivers using demographic, personality, and driving characteristic data. The 100-Car Naturalistic Driving Study was used for methodology development and application. A negative binomial regression model was adopted to identify significant risk factors. The results indicated that the driver's age, personality, and critical incident rate had significant impacts on crash and near-crash risk. For the second objective, drivers were classified into three risk groups based on crash and near-crash rate using a K-mean cluster method. The cluster analysis identified approximately 6% of drivers as high-risk drivers, with average crash and near-crash (CNC) rate of 3.95 per 1000 miles traveled, 12% of drivers as moderate-risk drivers (average CNC rate = 1.75), and 84% of drivers as low-risk drivers (average CNC rate = 0.39). Two logistic models were developed to predict the high- and moderate-risk drivers. Both models showed high predictive powers with area under the curve values of 0.938 and 0.930 for the receiver operating characteristic curves. This study concluded that crash and near-crash risk for individual drivers is associated with critical incident rate, demographic, and personality characteristics. Furthermore, the critical incident rate is an effective predictor for high-risk drivers.     

Alcohol- or drug-use disorders and motor vehicle accident mortality: A retrospective cohort study

A large body of research has linked alcohol consumption and motor vehicle accidents (MVAs), but far fewer studies have estimated the risk of MVA fatality among drug users. Our study addresses this gap. We identified cohorts of individuals hospitalized in California from 1990 to 2005 with ICD-9 diagnoses of methamphetamine- (n = 74,170), alcohol- (n = 592,406), opioids- (n = 68,066), cannabis- (n = 47,048), cocaine- (n = 48,949), or polydrug-related disorders (n = 411,175), and these groups were followed for up to 16 years. Age-, sex-, and race-adjusted standardized mortality rates (SMRs) for deaths due to MVAs were generated in relation to the California general population. Standardized MVA mortality ratios were elevated across all drug cohorts: alcohol (4.5, 95% CI, 4.1–4.9), cocaine (3.8, 95% CI, 2.3–5.3), opioids (2.8, 95% CI, 2.1–3.5), methamphetamine (2.6, 95% CI, 2–3.1), cannabis (2.3, 95% CI, 1.5–3.2) and polydrug (2.6, 95% CI, 2.4–2.9). Males and females had similar MVA SMRs. Our large, population-based study found elevated risk of MVA mortality across all cohorts of individuals with alcohol- or drug-use disorders. Given that illicit drug users are often unaware of or misperceive the impacts of drug use on safe driving, it may be important for health-service or public-health interventions to address such biases and improve road safety.     

Evaluating a novice driver and pre-driver road safety intervention

Intervention or evaluation studies represent a small proportion of traffic psychology research. The current study evaluated the effectiveness of a road safety intervention by measuring attitudes toward unsafe driving behaviors and risk perception. A sample of high school students (n = 133) participated in a road safety intervention program focusing on attitudes and risk perceptions of young people as novice drivers, pre-drivers, and passengers. This sample was compared with a matched sample of students who did not take the program (n = 172) on their attitudes and perceived risk toward unsafe driving, both prior to the program (T1), immediately after the program (T2), and at 6-week follow-up (T3). While no changes in attitudes toward unsafe driving were found for the control group, the intervention group reported riskier attitudes toward unsafe driving behaviors from T1 to T2 and T3. No differences were found from T1 to T3 in perceived risk toward unsafe driving for either the intervention or control groups. Implications of the study include encouraging a higher rate of road safety program evaluations, leading to better understanding of the effectiveness of road safety intervention programs and how they may be designed and delivered to ensure lower engagement in unsafe driving behaviors by young drivers.     

The role of parents and non-parents in the supervision of learner drivers in Australia

The purpose of this study was to contrast the role of parental and non-parental (sibling, other family and non-family) supervisors in the supervision of learner drivers in graduated driver licensing systems. The sample consisted of 522 supervisors from the Australian states of Queensland (n = 204, 39%) and New South Wales (n = 318, 61%). The learner licence requirements in these two states are similar, although learners in Queensland are required to accrue 100 h of supervision in a log book while those in New South Wales are required to accrue 120 h. Approximately 50 per cent of the sample (n = 255) were parents of the learner driver while the remainder of the sample were either siblings (n = 72, 13.8%), other family members (n = 153, 29.3%) or non-family (n = 114, 21.8%). Parents were more likely than siblings, other family or non-family members to be the primary supervisor of the learner driver. Siblings provided fewer hours of practice when compared with other supervisor types while the median and mode suggest that parents provided the most hours of practice to learner drivers. This study demonstrates that non-parental supervisors, such as siblings, other family members and non-family, at least in jurisdictions that require 100 or 120 h of practice, are important in facilitating learner drivers to accumulate sufficient supervised driving practice.     

Older drivers’ opinions of criteria that inform the cars they buy: A focus group study

Safe driving in older adulthood depends not only on health and driving ability, but also on the driving environment itself, including the type of vehicle. However, little is known about how safety figures into the older driver's vehicle selection criteria and how it ranks among other criteria, such as price and comfort. For this purpose, six focus groups of older male and female drivers (n = 33) aged 70–87 were conducted in two Canadian cities to explore vehicle purchasing decisions and the contribution of safety in this decision. Themes emerged from the data in these categories: vehicle features that keep them feeling safe, advanced vehicular technologies, factors that influence their car buying decisions, and resources that inform this decision. Results indicate older drivers have gaps with respect to their knowledge of safety features and do not prioritize safety at the time of vehicle purchase. To maximize the awareness and uptake of safety innovations, older consumers would benefit from a vehicle design rating system that highlights safety as well as other features to help ensure that the vehicle purchased fits their lifestyle and needs.     

Thrill and Adventure Seeking as a modifier of the relationship of perceived risk with risky driving among young drivers

Risky driving contributes to road trauma, a leading cause of mortality among young people. Health-relevant behaviour models suggest a negative relationship between risky driving and perceived risk of its outcomes. However, high sensation seekers may value the “thrill” of the risk, and positive associations between sensation seeking and risky driving have been observed. This is the first study to examine whether aspects of sensation seeking modify the relationship between perceived risk and risky driving. Young drivers in metropolitan Sydney and rural New South Wales [NSW] (n = 797) completed a survey relating to one of the four risky driving behaviours (speeding, drink-driving, driving while fatigued, and failing to wear a seatbelt). Results suggest that the Thrill and Adventure Seeking subscale of Zuckerman's (1994) Sensation Seeking Scale moderate the relationship of perceived risk with risky driving – indicating a negative relationship for low-scores, but not high-scorers, on the TAS subscale. Thus, road safety campaigns that emphasize the riskiness of a particular behaviour may be of limited benefit to thrill and adventure seekers.     

Revisiting the concept of the ‘problem young driver’ within the context of the ‘young driver problem’: Who are they?

For decades there have been two young driver concepts: the ‘young driver problem’ where the driver cohort represents a key problem for road safety; and the ‘problem young driver’ where a sub-sample of drivers represents the greatest road safety problem. Given difficulties associated with identifying and then modifying the behaviour of the latter group, broad countermeasures such as graduated driver licensing (GDL) have generally been relied upon to address the young driver problem. GDL evaluations reveal general road safety benefits for young drivers, yet they continue to be overrepresented in fatality and injury statistics. Therefore it is timely for researchers to revisit the ‘problem young driver’ concept to assess its potential countermeasure implications. This is particularly relevant within the context of broader countermeasures that have been designed to address the ‘young driver problem’ Personal characteristics, behaviours and attitudes of 378 Queensland novice drivers aged 17–25 years were explored during their pre-, Learner and Provisional 1 (intermediate) licence as part of a larger longitudinal project. Self-reported risky driving was measured by the Behaviour of Young Novice Drivers Scale (BYNDS), and five subscale scores were used to cluster the drivers into three groups (high risk n = 49, medium risk n = 163, low risk n = 166). High risk ‘problem young drivers’ were characterised by greater self-reported pre-Licence driving, unsupervised Learner driving, and speeding, driving errors, risky driving exposure, crash involvement, and offence detection during the Provisional period. Medium risk drivers were also characterised by more risky road use than the low risk group. Interestingly problem young drivers appear to have some insight into their high-risk driving, since they report significantly greater intentions to bend road rules in future driving. The results suggest that tailored intervention efforts may need to target problem young drivers within the context of broad countermeasures such as GDL which address the young driver problem in general. Experiences such as crash-involvement could be used to identify these drivers as a preintervention screening measure.     

The contribution of family climate for road safety and social environment to the reported driving behavior of young drivers

Two studies examined the contribution of the new concept of “family climate for road safety” and several aspects of the social environment to the driving behavior of young drivers. Study 1 (n = 120) investigated the effect of the seven dimensions of the family climate for road safety – Modeling, Feedback, Communication, Monitoring, Noncommitment, Messages, and Limits – as well as a general tendency to conform to authority, and peer pressure. Study 2 (n = 154) examined the dimensions of family climate for road safety and perceived popularity of reckless driving among peers. The findings indicate associations both between the familial and the social aspects, and between these variables and driving styles, willingness to take risks while driving, reckless driving habits, and personal commitment to safe driving. Positive aspects of the parent–child relationship and high levels of conformity to authority were related to greater endorsement of the careful driving style, whereas family's noncommitment to safety, higher peer pressure, and lower conformity to authority were associated with greater endorsement of the reckless driving style. In addition, positive aspects of the family climate for road safety and lower perceived popularity of reckless driving among friends were associated with more personal commitment to safe driving and a lower tendency for risky driving. The discussion stresses the need to look at the complex set of antecedents of reckless driving among young drivers and addresses the practical implications of the findings for road safety.