Using multiple datasets to understand trends in serious road traffic casualties

Accurate information on the incidence of serious road traffic casualties is needed to plan and evaluate prevention strategies. Traditionally police reported collisions are the only data used. This study investigate the extent to which understanding of trends in serious road traffic injuries is aided by the use of multiple datasets. Health and police datasets covering all or part of Great Britain from 1996-2003 were analysed. There was a significantly decreasing trend in police reported serious casualties but not in the other datasets. Multiple data sources provide a more complete picture of road traffic casualty trends than any single dataset. Increasing availability of electronic health data with developments in anonymised data linkage should provide a better platform for monitoring trends in serious road traffic casualties.     

The impact of climate change on winter road maintenance and traffic accidents in West Midlands, UK

Winter weather can be a significant cause of road traffic accidents. This paper uses UKCIP climate change scenarios and a temporal analogue to investigate the relationship between temperature and severe road accidents in the West Midlands, UK. This approach also allows quantification of the changes in the severity of the winter season over the next century in the region. It is demonstrated that the predicted reduction in the number of frost days should in turn reduce the number of road accidents caused due to slipperiness by approximately 50%. However, the paper concludes by warning against complacency in winter maintenance regimes. A warmer climate may result in budget cuts for highway maintenance which in turn may well reverse declining accident trends.     

Severity of disability related to road traffic crashes in the Spanish adult population

BackgroundThe severity of disability related to road traffic crashes has been little studied, despite the significant health and socio-economic impacts that determine victims’ quality of life.ObjectiveTo estimate the consequences of road traffic crashes on the severity of disability, in terms of individuals’ capacity to execute activities and perform tasks in their current environment, using aids.MethodsCross-sectional study conducted on community-dwelling participants in the “2008 National Survey of Disability”, with data on 91,846 households having 20,425 disabled persons, 443 of whom had disability due to road traffic crashes. We measured severity using two indicators, i.e., the Capacity (CSI) and Performance (PSI) Severity Indices.ResultsThe highest proportion of disability was mild (CSI = 70.5%; PSI = 80.8%), while 7.6% (CSI) and 4.9% (PSI) was severe/complete respectively. The moderate/severe disability rate was 0.6 per thousand on the CSI, decreasing to 0.4 per thousand on the PSI. No differences were observed by age or sex. Moderate/severely disabled persons had a fourfold higher probability of being retired or unfit for work. Mental and nervous system impairments were more closely related to moderate/severe/complete problems of capacity and performance (p < 0.001), disability for carrying out general tasks and demands, and interpersonal interactions and relationships (p < 0.001). Being permanently bedridden (p < 0.001), receiving aids (p < 0.001), family support (p < 0.05) and moving home (p < 0.05) increased with an increase in the level of severity.ConclusionRoad traffic crashes mainly cause mild disability. Moderate/severe disability is associated with lower work capacity, greater functional dependence, and increased need of aids, moving home and family support.     

The association of rainfall and other weather variables with road traffic volume in Melbourne, Australia

An investigation into the effect of weather variables on traffic flow at a site in Melbourne, Australia, for the period 1989-1996 was performed. Rainfall was the strongest correlated weather parameter and it had the greatest impact in winter and spring, when traffic volume is reduced on wet days. There are statistically significant decreases of 1.35 and 2.11% in traffic volume on wet days in winter and spring. The reduction increases to 2-3% over the 2-10mm range, the largest being 3.43% for the 2-5mm class in spring. For the first time, our study considers separately daytime and nighttime periods. We found a reduction of 1.86% in winter and 2.16% in spring during daytime rainfall. The reduction at nighttime is significant over all seasons, ranging from 0.87% in winter to 2.91% in spring. We have explored an application where the traffic volume was used to normalise the road accident count and found the rain effect to increase by 2.4, 1.9 and 5.2% relative to the daily, daytime and nighttime dry mean accident count. Generally, the normalised count is greater than the raw count, with a larger increase for the higher rainfall classes.     

A model of traffic crashes in New Zealand

The aim of this study was to examine the changes in the trend and seasonal patterns in fatal crashes in New Zealand in relation to changes in economic conditions between 1970 and 1994. The Harvey and Durbin (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 149 (3) (1986) 187-227) structural time series model (STSM), an 'unobserved components' class of model, was used to estimate models for quarterly fatal traffic crashes. The dependent variable was modelled as the number of crashes and three variants of the crash rate (crashes per 10,000 km travelled, crashes per 1,000 vehicles, and crashes per 1000 population). Independent variables included in the models were unemployment rate (UER), real gross domestic product per capita, the proportion of motorcycles, the proportion of young males in the population, alcohol consumption per capita, the open road speed limit, and dummy variables for the 1973 and 1979 oil crises and seat belt wearing laws. UERs, real GDP per capita, and alcohol consumption were all significant and important factors in explaining the short-run dynamics of the models. In the long-run, real GDP per capita was directly related to the number of crashes but after controlling for distance travelled was not significant. This suggests increases in income are associated with a short-run reduction in risk but increases in exposure to a crash (i.e. distance travelled) in the long-run. A 1% increase in the open road speed limit was associated with a long-run 0.5% increase in fatal crashes. Substantial reductions in fatal crashes were associated with the 1979 oil crisis and seat belt wearing laws. The 1984 universal seat belt wearing law was associated with a sustained 15.6% reduction in fatal crashes. These road policy factors appeared to have a greater influence on crashes than the role of demographic and economic factors.     

Models relating traffic safety with road environment and traffic flows on arterial roads in Addis Ababa

This paper presents the study carried out to develop accident predictive models based on the data collected on arterial roads in Addis Ababa. Poisson and negative binomial regression methods were used to relate the discrete accident data with the road and traffic flow explanatory variables. Significant accident predictive models were found with a number of significant explanatory variables. The results show that the existing inadequate road infrastructure and poor road traffic operations are the potential contributors of this ever-growing challenge of the road transport in Addis Ababa. The results also indicate that improvements in roadway width, pedestrian facilities, and access management are effective in reducing road traffic accidents.     

An integrated approach to evaluate policies for controlling traffic law violations

Modeling dynamics of the driver behavior is a complex problem. In this paper a system approach is introduced to model and to analyze the driver behavior related to traffic law violations in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. This paper demonstrates how the theoretical relationships between different factors can be expressed formally, and how the resulting model can assist in evaluating potential benefits of various policies to control the traffic law violations Using system approach, an integrated dynamic simulation model is developed, and model is tested to simulate the driver behavior for violating traffic laws during 2002-2007 in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. The dynamic simulation model attempts to address the questions: (1) “what” interventions should be implemented to reduce and eventually control traffic violations which will lead to improving road safety and (2) “how” to justify those interventions will be effective or ineffective to control the violations in different transportation conditions. The simulation results reveal promising capability of applying system approach in the policy evaluation studies.     

The economic costs of road traffic crashes: Australia, states and territories

In this paper, we obtain detailed data on road traffic crash (RTC) casualties, by severity, for each of the eight state and territory jurisdictions for Australia and use these to estimate and compare the economic impact of RTCs across these regions. We show that the annual cost of RTCs in Australia, in 2003, was approximately $17b, which is approximately 2.3% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Importantly, though, there is remarkable intra-national variation in the incident rates of RTCs in Australia and costs range from approximately 0.62 to 3.63% of Gross State Product (GSP). The paper makes two fundamental contributions: (i) it provides a detailed breakdown of estimated RTC casualties, by state and territory regions in Australia, and (ii) it presents the first sub-national breakdown of RTC costs for Australia. We trust that these contributions will assist policy-makers to understand sub-national variations in the road toll better and will encourage further research on the causes of the marked differences between RTC outcomes across the states and territories of Australia.     

The contribution of on-road studies of road user behaviour to improving road safety

For over 40 years transport safety researchers have been using methods of vehicle instrumentation to gain greater insights into the factors that contribute to road user crash risk and the associated crash factors. In the previous decade in particular the widespread availability of lower cost and more advanced methods of vehicle instrumentation and recording technologies are supporting the increasing number of on-road research studies worldwide. The design of these studies ranges from multi-method studies using instrumented test vehicles and defined driving routes, to field operational tests, through to much larger and more naturalistic studies. It is timely to assess the utility of these methods for studying the influences of driver characteristics and states, the design and operation of the road system, and the influences of in-vehicle technologies on behaviour and safety for various road user groups. This special issue considers the extent to which on-road studies using vehicle instrumentation have been used to advance knowledge across these areas of road safety research. The papers included in this issue illustrate how research using instrumented test vehicles continues to generate new knowledge, and how the larger scale United States and European naturalistic and field operational test studies are providing a wealth of data about road user behaviour in real traffic. This is balanced with a number of studies that present methodological developments in data collection and analysis methods that, while promising, need further validation. The use of on-road methods to accurately describe the behaviours occurring in everyday real-world conditions, to quantify risks for safety critical events, and an improved understanding of the factors that contribute to risk, clearly has huge potential to promote further road trauma reductions.     

Novel application of red-light runner proneness theory within traffic microsimulation to an actual signal junction

Building on previous research a conceptual framework, based on potential conflicts analysis, has provided a quantitative evaluation of ‘proneness’ to red-light running behaviour at urban signalised intersections of different geometric, flow and driver characteristics. The results provided evidence that commonly used violation rates could cause inappropriate evaluation of the extent of the red-light running phenomenon. Initially, an in-depth investigation of the functional form of the mathematical relationship between the potential and actual red-light runners was carried out. The application of the conceptual framework was tested on a signalised intersection in order to quantify the proneness to red-light running. For the particular junction studied proneness for daytime was found to be 0.17 north and 0.16 south for opposing main road approaches and 0.42 east and 0.59 west for the secondary approaches. Further investigations were carried out using a traffic microsimulation model, to explore those geometric features and traffic volumes (arrival patterns at the stop-line) that significantly affect red-light running. In this way the prediction capability of the proposed potential conflict model was improved. A degree of consistency in the measured and simulated red-light running was observed and the conceptual framework was tested through a sensitivity analysis applied to different stop-line positions and traffic volume variations. The microsimulation, although at its early stages of development, has shown promise in its ability to model unintentional red light running behaviour and following further work through application to other junctions, potentially provides a tool for evaluation of alternative junction designs on proneness. In brief, this paper proposes and applies a novel approach to model red-light running using a microsimulation and demonstrates consistency with the observed and theoretical results.     

Health burden of road traffic accidents,an analysis of clinical data on disability and mortality exposure rates in Flanders and Brussels

Statistics on road traffic accidents (RTAs) mainly come from police records. The police reported RTA statistics however are known to have a large degree of under-registration, underestimating the true risk of being injured in traffic accidents. The use of medical based datasets can provide a more accurate estimate of the actual traffic accident health risk. Exposure-based rates of the actual burden from Flanders and Brussels were calculated, comparing differences between road user, age, gender and type of injury sustained. Minimal Clinical Data (MCD) was selected for the years 2003–2007, as well as data from the mortality statistics. Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) were calculated and put into perspective with the passenger kilometres travelled.     

A disaggregate model for quantifying the safety effects of winter road maintenance activities at an operational level

This research presents a disaggregated modeling approach for investigating the link between winter road collision occurrence, weather, road surface conditions, traffic exposure, temporal trends and site-specific effects. This approach is unique as it allows for quantification of the safety effects of different winter road maintenance activities at an operational level. Different collision frequency models are calibrated using hourly data collected from 31 different highway routes across Ontario, Canada. It is found that factors such as visibility, precipitation intensity, air temperature, wind speed, exposure, month of the winter season, and storm hour have statistically significant effects on winter road safety. Most importantly, road surface conditions are identified as one of the major contributing factors, representing the first contribution showing the empirical relationship between safety and road surface conditions at such a disaggregate level. The applicability of the modeling framework is demonstrated using several examples, such as quantification of the benefits of alternative maintenance operations and evaluation of the effects of different service standards using safety as a performance measure.     

The impact of young drivers’ lifestyle on their road traffic accident risk in greater Athens area

Young drivers (18–24) both in Greece and elsewhere appear to have high rates of road traffic accidents. Many factors contribute to the creation of these high road traffic accidents rates. It has been suggested that lifestyle is an important one. The main objective of this study is to find out and clarify the (potential) relationship between young drivers’ lifestyle and the road traffic accident risk they face. Moreover, to examine if all the youngsters have the same elevated risk on the road or not. The sample consisted of 241 young Greek drivers of both sexes. The statistical analysis included factor analysis and logistic regression analysis. Through the principal component analysis a ten factor scale was created which included the basic lifestyle traits of young Greek drivers. The logistic regression analysis showed that the young drivers whose dominant lifestyle trait is alcohol consumption or drive without destination have high accident risk, while these whose dominant lifestyle trait is culture, face low accident risk. Furthermore, young drivers who are religious in one way or another seem to have low accident risk. Finally, some preliminary observations on how health promotion should be put into practice are discussed.     

Dominant role of drivers’ attitude in prevention of road traffic crashes: A study on knowledge,attitude, and practice of drivers in Iran

Objective

Evaluating the relation between Iranian drivers’ knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) regarding traffic regulations, and their deterministic effect on road traffic crashes (RTCs).

Setting

Two cities of Tehran and Zahedan, Iran.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was designed. Using a simplified cluster sampling design, 2200 motor vehicle drivers including 1200 in Tehran and 1000 in Zahedan were selected. Sixty locations in Tehran and 50 in Zahedan were chosen. In each pre-identified location, 20 adult drivers were approached consecutively. A questionnaire developed by researchers was filled by each participant. The questionnaire had four sections including items assessing the demographics, knowledge, attitude and practice of drivers toward traffic regulations. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between the RTCs and KAP variables.

Results

The study sample consisted of 619 (28.1%) occupational and 1580 (71.8%) private drivers. Among them, 86.4% were male. The median age was 33.6 ± 10.83. Drivers in Tehran and Zahedan had no significant differences between their mean scores of KAP items of the questionnaire. Higher knowledge, safer attitude, and safer practice were associated with a decreased number of RTC. After adjusting for possible confounders, increase of one standard deviation in attitude and practice scores (but not knowledge) resulted in 26.4% and 18.5% decrease in RTC, respectively. Finally, considering knowledge, attitude and practice of drivers in one model to assess their mutual effect, it was shown that only attitude is significantly associated with a decrease of RTC (OR = 0.76, P = 0.007).

Conclusion

Increase in attitude and practice accompanied with decreased number of RTCs in Iranian drivers. Specifically, drivers’ attitude had the crucial effect. It is not knowledge and standard traffic education; rather it is how such education is registered as an attitude that translates what is being learned into actions. Without safer attitude, even safer self-reported practice will not result in lower RTCs.     

Burden of road traffic injuries: Disability-adjusted life years in relation to hospitalization and the maximum abbreviated injury scale

Background

The consequences of non-fatal road traffic injuries (RTI) are increasingly adopted by policy makers as an indicator of traffic safety. However, it is not agreed upon which level of severity should be used as cut-off point for assessing road safety performance. Internationally, within road safety, injury severity is assessed by means of the maximum abbreviated injury scale (MAIS). The choice for a severity cut-off point highly influences the measured disease burden of RTI. This paper assesses the burden of RTI in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) by hospitalization status and MAIS cut-off point in the Netherlands.

Methods

Hospital discharge register (HDR) and emergency department (ED) data for RTI in the Netherlands were selected for the years 2007–2009, as well as mortality data. The incidence, years lived with disability (YLD), years of life lost (YLL) owing to premature death, and DALYs were calculated. YLD for admitted patients was subdivided by MAIS severity levels.

Results

RTI resulted in 48,500 YLD and 27,900 YLL respectively, amounting to 76,400 DALYs per year in the Netherlands. The largest proportion of DALYs is related to fatalities (37%), followed by admitted MAIS 2 injuries (25%), ED treated injuries (16%) and admitted MAIS 3+ injuries (18%). Admitted MAIS 1 injuries only account for a small fraction of DALYs (4%). In the Netherlands, the diseases burden of RTI is highest among cyclists with 39% of total DALYs. One half of all bicycle related DALYs are attributable to admitted MAIS 2+ injuries, but ED treated injuries also account for a large proportion of DALYs in this group (28%). Car occupants are responsible for 26% of all DALYs, primarily caused by fatalities (66%), followed by admitted MAIS 2+ injuries (25%). ED treated injuries only account for 5% of DALYs in this group.

Conclusions

When using admitted MAIS 3+ or admitted MAIS 2+ as severity cut-off point, 54% and 80% of all DALYs are captured respectively. Assessing the influence of different severity cut-off points by MAIS on the proportion and number of DALYs captured gives valuable information for guiding choices on the definition of serious RTI.     

Costs and benefits to Sweden of Swedish road safety research

This paper summarises a study designed to answer the following question: what are the benefits to Swedish society of road safety research in Sweden funded by the Swedish Transport Research Council and the programme for vehicle safety research during the period 1971-2004? The paper starts by discussing whether research can answer this question at all and explains why a well-controlled study was not feasible. A case study approach was selected, and five major research projects were examined in detail for the purpose of trying to estimate their effects on road safety. Estimates of safety effects were developed for four of the projects, indicating that road safety measures that were at least to some extent based on the findings of the research projects have made major contributions to reducing the number of road accident fatalities in Sweden. The estimates are not analytically rigorous and should be treated as qualified guesses only. Causal inferences are not possible. Nevertheless, if taken at face value, they show that the benefits to society of road safety research are large and outweigh by a wide margin the costs of the research, and of the road safety measures developed as a result of research. Thus, even if the estimated safety benefits exaggerate the true effects, the benefits of applied road safety research are likely to be greater than the costs of conducting this research and implementing road safety measures developed by research.     

Validation of a method to evaluate future impact of road safety interventions,a comparison between fatal passenger car crashes in Sweden 2000 and 2010

When targeting a society free from serious and fatal road-traffic injuries, it has been a common practice in many countries and organizations to set up time-limited and quantified targets for the reduction of fatalities and injuries. In setting these targets EU and other organizations have recognized the importance to monitor and predict the development toward the target as well as the efficiency of road safety policies and interventions.     

The importance of confounding in observational before-and-after studies of road safety measures

This paper discusses the importance of confounding in observational before-and-after studies of road safety measures. The importance of the approach taken to controlling for confounding factors is shown by means of examples. It is shown that the size of the effect on accidents attributed to a road safety measure can be profoundly affected by which confounding factors are controlled for in an evaluation study, and the way this is done. Simple before-and-after studies, not controlling for any confounding factors should never be trusted and are likely to overstate the effects of road safety measures.     

Sources of error in road safety scheme evaluation: a method to deal with outdated accident prediction models

This paper considers the errors that arise in using outdated accident prediction models in road safety scheme evaluation. Methods to correct for regression-to-mean (RTM) effects in scheme evaluation normally rely on the use of accident prediction models. However, because accident risk tends to decline over time, such models tend to become outdated and the estimated treatment effect is then exaggerated. A new correction procedure is described which can effectively eliminate such errors.     

Evaluating traffic informers: Testing the behavioral and social-cognitive effects of an adolescent bicycle safety education program

In The Netherlands, 12–24 years old are over-represented in the total number of traffic fatalities and injuries. In this study, the traffic informer program – designed to promote safe traffic behavior in the pre-driver population – was experimentally evaluated, with a specific focus on bicycle use. Students were subjected to graphic videos of traffic accidents and listened to a first-person narrative provided by a traffic accident victim. The influence of the program on concepts derived from the theory of planned behavior and protection motivation theory (attitudes, norms, self-efficacy, risk-perception, intention and behavior) was assessed. Students from various schools (N = 1593; M age = 15 years, SD = .84) participated in a quasi-experimental study, either in an experimental or a control group, completing self-report questionnaires one week prior to the program implementation and approximately one month after the program implementation. Mixed regression analyses showed significant positive and negative time × intervention interaction effects on attitude toward traffic violations, relative attitude toward traffic safety, and risk comparison, but not on intention and behavior. More research is needed to find effective behavioral change techniques (other than increasing risk awareness) for promoting safe traffic behavior in adolescents. Research is also needed to address how these can be translated into effective interventions and educational programs.