Temporal Effects of St. Clair River Dredging on Lakes St. Clair and Erie Water Levels and Connecting Channel Flow

A Great Lakes hydrologic response model was used to study the temporal effects of St. Clair River dredging on Lakes St. Clair and Erie water levels and connecting channel flows. The dredging has had a significant effect on Great Lakes water levels since the mid-1980s. Uncompensated dredging permanently lowers the water levels of Lakes Michigan and Huron and causes a transitory rise in the water levels of Lakes St. Clair and Erie. Two hypothetical dredging projects, each equivalent to a 10 cm lowering of Lakes Michigan and Huron, were investigated. This lowering is approximately half the effect of the 7.6 and 8.2 meter dredging projects. In the first case the dredging was assumed to occur over a single year while in the second it was spread over a 2-year period. The dredging resulted in a maximum rise of 6 cm in the downstream levels of Lakes St. Clair and Erie. The corresponding increase in connecting channel flows was about 150 m³s^?1. The effects were found to decrease over a 10-year period with a half-life of approximately 3 years. The maximum effects on Lake Erie lagged Lake St. Clair by about 1 year.     

Laurentian Great Lakes Hydrology and Lake Levels under the Transposed 1993 Mississippi River Flood Climate

The Laurentian Great Lakes are North America's largest water resource, and include six large water bodies (Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, Ontario, and Georgian Bay), Lake St. Clair, and their connecting channels. Because of the relatively small historical variability in system lake levels, there is a need for realistic climate scenarios to develop and test sensitivity and resilience of the system to extreme high lake levels. This is particularly important during the present high lake level regime that has been in place since the late 1960s. In this analysis, we use the unique climate conditions which resulted in the 1993 Mississippi River flooding as an analog to test the sensitivity of Great Lakes hydrology and water levels to a rare but actual climate event. The climate over the Upper Mississippi River basin was computationally shifted, corresponding to a conceptual shift of the Great Lakes basin 10̊ west and 2̊ south. We applied a system of hydrological models to the daily meteorological time series and determined daily runoff, lake evaporation, and net basin water supplies. The accumulated net basin supplies from May through October 1993 for the 1993 Mississippi River flooding scenario ranged from a 1% decrease for Lake Superior to a large increase for Lake Erie. Water levels for each lake were determined from a hydro-logic routing model of the system. Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Erie were most affected. The simulated rise in Lakes Michigan and Huron water levels far exceeded the historically recorded rise with both lakes either approaching or setting record high levels. This scenario demonstrates that an independent anomalous event, beginning with normal lake levels, could result in record high water levels within a 6- to 9-month period. This has not been demonstrated in the historical record or by other simulation studies.     

Long-term Trends in the Seasonal Cycle of Great Lakes Water Levels

Numerous long-term trends in the rate-of-change in monthly mean Great Lakes water levels are identified for the period 1860 to 1998. Statistically significant trends are found for 2, 4, 5, and 7 months of the year for Lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron, Erie, and Ontario, respectively. Many of the trends translate into large changes in net water flux (600 to 1,700 m³/s). In each case, significant positive trends are roughly offset by negative trends during other times of the year. Together with similar trends in monthly lake level anomalies (deviations from the annual mean), these trends indicate important changes in the seasonal cycle of Great Lakes water levels. Specifically, Lakes Erie and Ontario are rising and falling (on an annual basis) roughly one month earlier than they did 139 years ago. Maximum lake levels for Lake Superior are also slightly earlier in the year, and the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of Lake Ontario is found to increase by 23% over the 139-year period. Some of the changes are consistent with the predicted impacts of global warming on spring snowmelt and runoff in the Great Lakes region. Other potential contributors to the observed trends include seasonal changes in precipitation and humaninduced effects such as lake regulation and changes in land use.     

Mean Circulation in the Great Lakes

In this paper new maps are presented of mean circulation in the Great Lakes, employing long-term current observations from about 100 Great Lakes moorings during the 1960s to 1980s. Knowledge of the mean circulation in the Great Lakes is important for ecological and management issues because it provides an indication of transport pathways of nutrients and contaminants on longer time scales. Based on the availability of data, summer circulation patterns in all of the Great Lakes, winter circulation patterns in all of the Great Lakes except Lake Superior, and annual circulation patterns in Lakes Erie, Michigan, and Ontario were derived. Winter currents are generally stronger than summer currents, and, therefore, annual circulation closely resembles winter circulation. Circulation patterns tend to be cyclonic (counterclockwise) in the larger lakes (Lake Huron, Lake Michigan, and Lake Superior) with increased cyclonic circulation in winter. In the smaller lakes (Lake Erie and Lake Ontario), winter circulation is characterized by a two-gyre circulation pattern. Summer circulation in the smaller lakes is different; predominantly cyclonic in Lake Ontario and anticyclonic in Lake Erie.     

An assessment of water quality in two Great Lakes connecting channels

Compared to the Great Lakes, their connecting channels are relatively understudied and infrequently assessed. To address this gap, we conducted a spatially-explicit water quality assessment of two connecting channels, the St. Marys River and the Lake Huron-Lake Erie Corridor (HEC) in 2014–2016. We compared the condition of the channels to each other and to the up- and downriver Great Lakes with data from an assessment of the Great Lakes nearshore. In the absence of channel-specific thresholds, we assessed the condition of the area of each channel as good, fair, or poor by applying the most protective water quality thresholds for the downriver lake. Condition of the St. Marys River was rated mostly fair for total phosphorus (TP, 56% of the area) and mostly good (61% of the area) for chlorophyll a. Area-weighted mean concentrations of these parameters were intermediate to Lake Superior and Lake Huron. Unlike Lake Superior and Lake Huron, a large proportion (97%) of the area of the St. Marys River was in poor condition for water clarity based on Secchi depth. Area-weighted mean concentrations of TP and chlorophyll a in the HEC were more like Lake Huron than Lake Erie. For these indicators, most of the area of the HEC was rated good (81% and 86%, respectively). Interpretation of assessment results is complicated by variation in thresholds among and within lakes. Appropriate thresholds should align with assessment objectives and in the case of connecting channels be at least as protective as thresholds for the downriver lake.     

Updated phosphorus loads from Lake Huron and the Detroit River: Implications

The binational Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA) revised Lake Erie’s phosphorus (P) loading targets, including a 40% western and central basin total P (TP) load reduction from 2008 levels. Because the Detroit and Maumee River loads are roughly equal and contribute almost 90% of the TP load to the western basin and 54% to the whole lake, they have drawn significant policy attention. The Maumee is the primary driver of western basin harmful algal blooms, and the Detroit and Maumee rivers are key drivers of central basin hypoxia and overall western and central basin eutrophication. So, accurate estimates of those loads are particularly important. While daily measurements constrain Maumee load estimates, complex flows near the Detroit River mouth, along with varying Lake Erie water levels and corresponding back flows, make measurements there a questionable representation of loading conditions. Because of this, the Detroit River load is generally estimated by adding loads from Lake Huron to those from the watersheds of the St. Clair and Detroit rivers and Lake St. Clair. However, recent research showed the load from Lake Huron has been significantly underestimated. Herein, I compare different load estimates from Lake Huron and the Detroit River, justify revised higher loads from Lake Huron with a historical reconstruction, and discuss the implications for Lake Erie models and loading targets.     

The flathead catfish invasion of the Great Lakes

A detailed review of historical literature and museum data revealed that flathead catfish were not historically native in the Great Lakes Basin, with the possible exception of a relict population in Lake Erie. The species has invaded Lake Erie, Lake St. Clair, Lake Huron, nearly all drainages in Michigan, and the Fox/Wolf and Milwaukee drainages in Wisconsin. They have not been collected from Lake Superior yet, and the temperature suitability of that lake is questionable. Flathead catfish have been stocked sparingly in the Great Lakes and is not the mechanism responsible for their spread. A stocking in 1968 in Ohio may be one exception to this. Dispersal resulted from both natural range expansions and unauthorized introductions. The invasion is ongoing, with the species invading both from the east and the west to meet in northern Lake Michigan. Much of this invasion has likely taken place since the 1990s. This species has been documented to have significant impacts on native fishes in other areas where it has been introduced; therefore, educating the public not to release them into new waters is important. Frequent monitoring of rivers and lakes for the presence of this species would detect new populations early so that management actions could be utilized on new populations if desired.     

Great Lakes Flood Thresholds and Impacts

Using the location, data, and water levels from flood events along the Canadian shore of the Great Lakes, flood damage thresholds were determined to identify and compare water levels at which static and storm-induced high water impact shoreline interests on several shore reaches of Lakes Erie, Huron, Ontario, and St. Clair. Spatial differences identified may be related to several factors, including: 1) nearshore bathymetries; 2) extent of residential development along low-lying shorelines; 3) degree of riparian adjustment to flooding; and 4) location relative to dominant wind or storm directions. Correlation analyses found that flood damage levels are more closely correlated to fluctuations in static levels on Lakes Ontario, Huron, and St. Clair, while flood damage levels are more closely correlated to maximum instantaneous water levels on Lake Erie. Correlation analyses of individual gauge data identified locations possibly more susceptible to storm surges. A conservative approach to determining flood damage thresholds is suggested, being based on a standard deviation below the mean of maximum instantaneous flood levels for a given gauge. The standard deviation threshold, while lower than current “critical levels” used in management, is more representative of the majority of flood damage levels than thresholds based on lowest maximum instantaneous lake levels. However, caution is urged in applying any critical level solely based on water level gauge information as Great Lakes flooding is a highly site-specific phenomenon influenced by meteorologic factors.     

Nutrient concentrations and loadings in the St. Clair River–Detroit River Great Lakes Interconnecting Channel

Long-term (2001–2015) water quality monitoring data for the St. Clair River are presented with data from studies in the Detroit River in 2014 and 2015 to provide the most complete information available about nutrient concentrations and loadings in the Lake Huron–Lake Erie interconnecting corridor. Concentrations of total phosphorus (TP) in the St. Clair River have reflected declines in Lake Huron. We demonstrate that St. Clair River TP concentrations are higher than offshore Lake Huron values. The recent average (2014 and 2015) incoming TP load from the upstream Great Lakes is measured here to be 980 metric tonnes per annum (MTA), which is roughly three times greater than previous estimates. Significant TP load increases are also indicated along the St. Clair River. We treat the lower Detroit River as three channels to sample water quality as part of a two year monitoring campaign that included winter sampling and SRP in the parameter suite. We found concentrations of many parameters are higher near the shorelines, with the main Mid-River channel resembling water quality upstream measured at the mouth of the St. Clair River. Comparison with past estimates indicates both concentrations and loadings of TP have dramatically declined since 2007 in the Trenton Channel, while those in the Mid-River and in the Amherstburg Channel have remained similar or have possibly increased. The data demonstrate that the TP load exiting the mouth of the Detroit River into Lake Erie is currently in the range of 3740 (in 2014) to 2610 (2015) MTA.     

Effect of the Niagara River Chippawa Grass Island Pool on Water Levels of Lakes Erie,St. Clair,and Michigan-Huron

Because of renewed riparian interest stemming from the high Lake Erie water levels of the mid-1980s and mid-1990s, and the need for a concise summary of previous studies, a review and a new assessment of the impact of the Niagara River's Chippawa Grass Island Pool on Lake Erie water levels was undertaken. Numerous field and modeling studies dating from 1953 through 1988 provide different assessments of the impacts. The impacts reported by the studies range from “no measureable effect” to a 2 to 5 cm Lake Erie water level decrease. The different results are due to different methods and data, and the fact that the impacts are not directly measureable. A new Great Lakes routing model that more accurately reflects the upper Niagara River hydraulics by explicitly considering the management directive of the Chippawa Grass Island Pool is used to estimate the impacts of deviating from the present directive. The long-term impact of a 0.30 m increase or decrease from the current directive's long-term mean pool level on Lakes Erie, St. Clair, and Michigan-Huron levels is 5 cm, 4 cm, and 2 cm and −4 cm, −3 cm, and −2 cm, respectively. The lakes are minimally responsive to short-term changes in pool levels, with 50% of the Lake Erie impact achieved at about 6 months, and full impact achieved at about 2 years. The minimal lake response, the time lag to full impact, and the local problems resulting from directive deviations, make this a less favorable emergency response measure during periods of extreme lake levels than other alternatives.     

Water Diversion from the Great Lakes: Is a Cooperative Approach Possible?

The concern about other states diverting water from the Great Lakes has prompted the Great Lakes States and provinces to adopt institutional arrangements that have effectively blocked any new diversions.Since the current arrangements do not allow diversions, important opportunities may be lost in the future. This article considers the possibility of 'economically desirable diversions' and how the gains should be allocated among the states and provinces to foster cooperation. The study shows that in most cases, new institutional arrangements will be needed before agreements can be reached. Game theory is used to determine how coalitions may be formed to reach cooperative agreements for diversions. Five different lake diversion games are tried involving Lake Ontario, Lake Superior, Lake Erie, Lake Michigan-Huron, and finally, all the lakes together. Diversions from Lake Ontario may offer the best opportunity for cooperation since there are no interlake effects.     

Toxaphene trends in the Great Lakes fish

As part of the U.S. Great Lakes Fish Monitoring and Surveillance Program (GLFMSP), more than 300 lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and walleye (Stizostedion vitreum vitreum) collected from the Laurentian Great Lakes each year from 2004 to 2009, have been analyzed for total toxaphene and eight selected congeners. The analytical results show fish toxaphene concentrations are quite different among lakes. Between 2004 and 2009, Lake Superior lake trout had the highest concentration (119 to 482 ng/g) and Lake Erie walleye had the lowest concentration (18 to 47 ng/g). Combining these results with the historical total toxaphene data (1977–2003), temporal changes were examined for each lake. Because of different analytical methods used in the previous studies, the historical data were adjusted using a factor of 0.56 based on a previous inter-method comparison in our laboratory. Trend analysis using an exponential decay regression showed that toxaphene in Great Lakes fish exhibited a significant decrease in all of the lakes with t_1/2 (confidence interval) of 0.9 (0.8–1.1) years for Lake Erie walleye, 3.8 (3.5–4.1) years for Lake Huron lake trout, 5.6 (5.1–6.1) years for Lake Michigan lake trout, 7.5 (6.7–8.4) years for Lake Ontario lake trout and 10.1 (8.2–13.2) years for Lake Superior lake trout. Parlars 26, 50 and 62 were the dominant toxaphene congeners accounting for 0.53% to 41.7% of the total toxaphene concentration. Concentrations of these congeners generally also decreased over time.     

Daphnia lumholtzi Sars a new alien species in Lake St. Clair

Daphnia lumholtzi Sars, an exotic tropical/subtropical cladoceran from Australia, southeast Asia, and Africa, was newly found in Lake St. Clair in a vertical tow sample taken at 3 m depth on 25 July 2007. The species was previously found in 1990/1991 in some reservoirs in the southern United States from where it colonized many waters north to the Great Lakes. In 1999, it was found in Lake Erie. This cladoceran had a density of 117 individuals/m³ when we collected it from Lake St. Clair and it was represented by both females (95.12 %) and males (4.88 %). It seems that D. lumholtzi will continue to expand its distribution area in the Great Lakes.     

Perchlorate in environmental waters of the Laurentian Great Lakes watershed: Evidence for uneven loading

A database of nearly 500 analyses of perchlorate in water samples from the Laurentian Great Lakes (LGL) watershed is presented, including samples from streams, from the Great Lakes and their connecting waters, with a special emphasis on Lake Erie. These data were assessed to test an earlier hypothesis that loading of perchlorate to the LGL watershed is relatively uniform. Higher perchlorate concentrations in streams in more developed and urban areas appear to indicate higher rates of loading from anthropogenic sources in these areas. Variable perchlorate concentrations in samples from Lake Erie indicate transient (un-mixed) conditions, and suggest loss by microbial degradation, focused in the central basin of that lake. Interpretation of the data included estimation of annual loading by streams in various sub-watersheds, and simulations (steady state and transient state) of the mass balance of perchlorate in the Great Lakes. The results suggest uneven loading from atmospheric deposition and other sources.     

Stable isotope mass balance of the Laurentian Great Lakes

    We investigate the physical limnology of the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America using a new dataset of ¹⁸O/¹⁶O and ²H/¹H ratios from over 500 water samples collected at multiple depths from 75 stations during spring and summer of 2007. δ¹⁸O and δ²H values of each lake plot in distinct clusters along a trend parallel to, but offset from, the Global Meteoric Water Line, reflecting the combined effects of evaporative enrichment and the addition of precipitation and runoff along the chain lake system. We apply our new dataset to a stable-isotope-based evaporation model that explicitly incorporates downwind lake effects, including humidity build-up and changes to the isotope composition of atmospheric vapor. Our evaporation estimates are consistent with previous mass transfer results for Michigan, Huron, Ontario and Erie, but not for Superior, which has a much longer residence time. Calculated evaporation from Superior is ~300 mm per year, less than previous estimates of ~500 mm per year, likely arising from integration of the ‘isotopic memory' of lower evaporation rates under cooler climatic conditions with greater ice-cover than the present. Uncertainties in the estimates from the stable-isotope-based model are comparable to mass transfer results, offering an independent technique for evaluating evaporation fluxes.     

Spatial Distributions and Temporal Trends in Sediment Contamination in Lake St. Clair

The sediments of Lake St. Clair were surveyed in 2001 for a range of compound classes including metals (such as total mercury and lead), polychlorinated biphenyls, polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans, organochlorine pesticides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and short- and medium- chain chlorinated paraffins, in order to evaluate the spatial distribution and temporal trends of contamination. Concentrations of contaminants were generally low compared to the lower Great Lakes (Erie and Ontario), and were typically below the Canadian Sediment Quality Probable Effect Level (PEL) guidelines. The only exceptions were for mercury and DDE, where concentrations exceeded their respective PEL at one of the thirty-four sites sampled. With the exception of mercury, it was difficult to interpret spatial trends in contaminant concentrations due to these low levels, although relatively elevated concentrations of several contaminants were found in L’Anse Creuse Bay and at the outflow of the Thames River. In the case of mercury, historically-contaminated sediments in the St. Clair River associated with chlor-alkali production appeared to contribute to loadings to Lake St. Clair. There have been substantial reductions in sediment contamination in Lake St. Clair over the past three decades, as determined through sediment core profiles as well as through comparison of current data to those from historical surveys conducted in the early 1970s. These results indicate that management actions to reduce contaminant loadings to Lake St. Clair have been generally successful.     

Associations between Breeding Marsh Bird Abundances and Great Lakes Hydrology

We used Great Lakes hydrologic data and bird monitoring data from the Great Lakes Marsh Monitoring Program from 1995–2002 to: 1) evaluate trends and patterns of annual change in May-July water levels for Lakes Ontario, Erie, and Huron-Michigan, 2) report on trends of relative abundance for birds breeding in Great Lakes coastal marshes, and 3) correlate basin-wide and lake-specific annual indices of bird abundance with Great Lakes water levels. From 1995–2002, average May, June, and July water levels in all lake basins showed some annual variation, but Lakes Erie and Huron-Michigan had identical annual fluctuation patterns and general water level declines. No trend was observed in Lake Ontario water levels over this period. Abundance for five of seven marsh birds in Lake Ontario wetlands showed no temporal trends, whereas abundance of black tern (Chlidonias niger) declined and that of swamp sparrow (Melospiza georgiana) increased from 1995–2002. In contrast, abundances of American coot (Fulica americana), black tern, common moorhen (Gallinula chloropus), least bittern (Ixobrychus exilis), marsh wren (Cistorthorus palustris), pied-billed grebe (Podilymbus podiceps), sora (Porzana carolina), swamp sparrow, and Virginia rail (Rallus limicola) declined within marshes at Lakes Erie and Huron/Michigan from 1995–2002. Annual abundances of several birds we examined showed positive correlations with annual lake level changes in non-regulated Lakes Erie and Huron/Michigan, whereas most birds we examined in Lake Ontario coastal wetlands were not correlated with suppressed water level changes of this lake. Overall, our results suggest that long-term changes and annual water level fluctuations are important abiotic factors affecting abundance of some marsh-dependent birds in Great Lakes coastal marshes. For this reason, wetland bird population monitoring initiatives should consider using methods in sampling protocols, or during data analyses, to account for temporal and spatial components of hydrologic variability that affect wetlands and their avifauna.     

First Record of Corophium mucronatum Sars (Crustacea: Amphipoda) in the Great Lakes

Corophium mucronatum Sars, a small amphipod native to the Caspian and Black Sea basins, was discovered in September 1997 in Lake St. Clair. A single individual was collected using a bottom sled dredge in littoral waters adjacent to Seaway Island, Ontario. The specimen was found on silty-sand substrate in an area populated by submerged macrophytes. Because no other Corophium individuals were found despite repeated sampling over two years at a total of 60 sites in the corridor between the St. Clair River and western Lake Erie, it is highly unlikely that this species has established in the Great Lakes.     

A Reconstruction of Lake Michigan–Huron Water Levels Derived fromTree Ring Chronologies for the Period 1600–1961

A dendrochronolgy of annual precipitation and air temperatures from six Great Lakes locations was used to reconstruct Lake Michigan-Huron water levels from 1600–1961 representing the present St. Clair River channel conditions and basin land cover. The reconstructions are based upon a multi-linear regression model relating multi-year annual precipitation and air temperature to annual water levels. An increased frequency of low lake levels was found to occur prior to the twentieth century, accompanied by a major extreme in water levels, greater than that experienced in the historical record, in the early 1600s. The comparison of simulated and measured water levels also indicates that the impact of some of the channel changes in the St. Clair River may be underestimated and that the major drop in lake level in the 1880s may be due to erosion as well as to decreased precipitation. The occurrence of extreme levels around 1640, in 1838, and in 1986 suggests a return interval of 150–190 years for extreme lake levels. The analysis also suggests that the variability of lake levels has greatly decreased over the last century when comparing tree-ring-derived level variability. Thus climatic periods used for the development of the current regulation plans may not be representative of the longer-term climate and lake levels.     

Application of distance sampling techniques for diving ducks on Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie

Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie are important migration staging areas for diving ducks including canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria), redheads (Aythya americana), and lesser and greater scaup (Aythya affinis and Aythya marila). Starting in 1983, the Michigan Department of Natural Resources (MDNR) attempted to census diving ducks on the United States portion of Lake St. Clair throughout autumn migration; however, in 2010 the MDNR expanded the traditionally surveyed area to include all of Lake St. Clair and a portion of western Lake Erie. The idea of achieving a census over the expanded study area was unrealistic, and instead distance sampling techniques were adopted in an effort to generate statistically valid estimates of detection probabilities and abundances for diving ducks during spring and autumn migration. We found distance sampling techniques to be a viable option for estimating diving duck abundance as long as flock size is accounted for as a covariate affecting the detection function. Diving ducks were generally more abundant on our study area during autumn migration with a mean of 306,327 ducks/survey (SE = 40,729) compared to an average spring abundance of 91,053 ducks/survey (SE = 19,175). Peak abundance occurred on 20 November 2012 with an estimated 596,335 diving ducks on Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie. Ultimately, our methodology could be used to establish long-term, standardized data collection techniques and applied to conservation planning for waterfowl in the Great Lakes region.