青藏高原及东缘新一代大气综合探测系统应用平台 ——中日合作JICA项目

2005年至2009年中日科学家合作执行了JICA（Japan international cooperation agency）项目,建立了包括GPS水汽观测、探空观测、自动气象站等组成的青藏高原及其东部大气的综合监测网,有效提升了青藏高原及其东部周边地区气象综合监测能力和气象资料的采集能力,提高了青藏高原及其东部周边地区大气观测资料的数量和质量。建立了灾害天气早期预警和预报平台,并在业务中得到了应用。JICA项目青藏高原大气综合监测网的建立,不仅在提高对高原及其东部灾害天气气候的认识方面具有重要的科学意义,也在高原及其东部灾害天气气候的监测、预报、预警和评估的业务能力,减轻气象灾害造成的损失,提高气象部门防灾减灾决策能力等方面具有重要的实际应用价值。     

“三峡库区降水资料分析处理系统”的设计与实现

三峡水库气候变化复杂,是灾害性天气和暴雨的多发地区。为了能预警三峡库区地质灾害从而减少灾害造成的伤亡,设计开发了“三峡库区降水资料分析处理系统”,为三峡库区监测预警分析和指挥系统应用提供气象数据支撑。该系统基于Oracle关系数据库建立了三峡库区降水资料数据库及气象产品集,并建立了基于ArcGIS平台的三峡库区气象资料查询、检索、统计系统,实现各类资料的统计、分析和显示功能。     

浅谈影响气象预报准确率的因素及对策

气象预报预测准确率和精细化水平是气象业务发展发展的重要标志,分析制约、影响气象局天气预报业务准确率的主要因素,从强化综合观测基础作用,完善灾害性天气短时、临近预警预报系统,提升基层台站预报业务和服务能力,做好预报预测业务人才支撑保障作用等方面对提高天气预报预测准确率进行探讨。。     

区域自动站常见故障处理与保障措施

区域自动站的广泛应用,幅度提高了灾害性天气的预警能力和人工影响天气的防灾减灾能力,本文通过总结通辽近几年来的区域自动站运行情况。全面分析了区域自动站运行中出现的故障种类、出现原因以及保障措施,并结合通辽市区域自动站运行情况提出了仪器保障维护措施。     

奥运与气象计量

几乎每届奥运会都离不开气象保障,气象部门要提供准确、实时的天气预报和比赛场馆及周边的气象条件.特别是由于开幕式和闭幕式等重大活动一般在露天体育场馆举行.开、闭幕式活动期间,是否有降雨、沙尘、大雾等灾害性天气出现,都要求气象部门作出准确、精细的短期天气预报.     

浅析地面气象观测报表疑误记录的判断与处理

引言 巴彦诺尔公气象站,是国家基准气候站位于阿拉善戈壁深处,全国一类艰苦台站,主要开展高空探测和地面测报等气象业务,地面观测资料参加全球气象资料交换。随着目前自动站的逐步普及,数据量增大,数据格式和数据处理显得尤为重要,因其地理位置特殊,其观测数据常被作为我国中东部地区天气预报的重要指标。我盟地处全国天气系统的上游,     

长江流域气象-水文暴雨洪涝预警技术系统研究

对长江流域暴雨洪涝预警研究和业务的4个方面,即暴雨中尺度野外观测科学试验、暴雨中尺度系统形成机理研究、暴雨数值模式预报技术研发以及水文气象耦合模式发展等进行了回顾,分析了制约长江流域暴雨预报和洪涝灾害预警能力和水平提高的主要因素,提出了亟待解决的主要科学技术问题及其应对策略。     

气象灾害预警术语现状浅析与规范化建议

随着全球灾害的强度、严重性和影响不断增加,改善灾害的风险信息对于提高我们预测、预防和应对从地方到全球范围内的灾害风险的能力至关重要。缺乏对防灾全链条的标准化定义成为有效共享和使用风险信息的障碍。气象灾害预警是防灾减灾第一道防线,主要包括实时灾害性天气监测、准确及时的预警发布和传播,当前,其在社会活动、实时业务、科学研究、媒体传播中存在术语定义不一致、发展不均衡的情况,制约了气象灾害风险管理的综合发展。尤其是术语以多种方式定义会阻碍信息的共享和整合。本文首先比较国内外气象灾害预警术语标准现状,然后依据当前国际认可的多灾种早期预警的关键要素进行分类,在此基础上剖析主要问题,给出急需提升和完善的方向。     

卫星气象与空间天气监测预警标准化工作进展及发展对策

一、引言 经过30多年的发展,我国的气象卫星与卫星气象事业取得突破性进展,气象卫星已初步完成了由试验业务型向应用服务型的转变,从气象卫星获取的信息已广泛应用于天气预报、气候预测、生态环境和自然灾害监测等领域,在我国的国民经济发展和国防建设中发挥了重要作用。与此同时,随着我国航天事业和现代化建设的飞速发展,空间天气监测预警业务也迅速开展并受到越来越多的重视。     

中国新一代多普勒天气雷达网的建设与技术应用

新一代多普勒天气雷达已成为对灾害性天气监测、预测的重要手段之一，世界上一些发达国家已普遍使用这一技术。我国从1998年开始建设新一代天气雷达网，已将这项工程列入国债资金支持项目。介绍了多普勒天气雷达的技术发展情况，目前我国的建设和应用情况，提出在发展建设中应注意的几个问题，以及未来雷达技术在天气监测中的若干发展和应用领域。     

The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: relevance to climate-change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases

Our paper documents that land-use change impacts regional and global climate through the surface-energy budget, as well as through the carbon cycle. The surface-energy budget effects may be more important than the carbon-cycle effects. However, land-use impacts on climate cannot be adequately quantified with the usual metric of 'global warming potential'. A new metric is needed to quantify the human disturbance of the Earth's surface-energy budget. This 'regional climate change potential' could offer a new metric for developing a more inclusive climate protocol. This concept would also implicitly provide a mechanism to monitor potential local-scale environmental changes that could influence biodiversity.     

Permafrost and terrain conditions at northern drilling-mud sumps: Impacts of vegetation and climate change and the management implications

Permafrost can provide a containment medium for drilling wastes deposited to in-ground sumps, but tall shrubs may proliferate on covers causing snow to accumulate, active layers to deepen and the ground to thaw. We evaluate these effects using a 2-dimensional heat transfer model to simulate the thermal evolution of sumps in warm (− 3.0 °C mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT)) and cold (− 6.0 °C MAGT) permafrost under varying snow and climate conditions characteristic of the Mackenzie Delta region. Application of climate and snow normals for Inuvik, Northwest Territories, south of treeline, and Tuktoyaktuk, on coastal tundra, maintained wastes within frozen ground at temperatures below − 1.5 °C in warm permafrost and − 3.0 °C in cold permafrost, respectively. A gradual increase in snow depth from 0.17 m to 1.5 m simulating the effect of shrub growth on snow accumulation, caused thawing by the third decade. In the absence of shrub growth and increasing snow, moderate climate warming (0.09 °C/year) also caused sump thawing after 35 years for the warm scenario, but for the cold scenario wastes remained below − 2 °C through to year 40. Climate warming and increasing snow depths hasten thermal degradation. Modeling results indicating sump degradation due to deepening snow were corroborated by snow and ground temperature measurements, observations of collapsed shrub covered sumps in the Mackenzie Delta region and the local absence of permafrost where deep snow accumulates over mineral soils. Although thawing increases the mobility of sump contents, the associated subsidence of the sump and adjacent areas may inhibit lateral movement of the wastes. Several factors combine to influence the integrity of sumps in permafrost indicating the need for a long-term management strategy.     

Rainfall variability in East Africa: implications for natural resources management and livelihoods

This note examines the effects of climate variability on natural-resources management in East Africa. The bimodal rainfall regime in much of East Africa brings rainy seasons from March to May and October to December with greater interannual variability from October to December. We discuss the impacts of rainfall extremes in 1961 and 1997 and explore three examples of natural-resources management in the context of rainfall variability: inland fisheries in East and southern Africa; fluctuations in the level of Lake Victoria; and lake-shore communities around Lake Kyoga in Uganda. The discussion reflects the complexity of linkages between climate, environment and society in the region and highlights implications for natural-resources management. These range from benefits due to improved seasonal rainfall forecasting to reduce the damage of extremes, to improved understanding of existing climate-society interactions to provide insights into the region's vulnerability and adaptive capacity in relation to future climate change.     

The aesthetics of water and land: a promising concept for managing scarce water resources under climate change

The eastern Mediterranean faces a severe water crisis: water supply decreases due to climate change, while demand increases due to rapid population growth. The GLOWA Jordan River project generates science-based management strategies for maximizing water productivity under global climate change. We use a novel definition of water productivity as the full range of services provided by landscapes per unit blue (surface) and green (in plants and soil) water. Our combined results from climatological, ecological, economic and hydrological studies suggest that, in Israel, certain landscapes provide high returns as ecosystem services for little input of additional blue water. Specifically, cultural services such as recreation may by far exceed that of food production. Interestingly, some highly valued landscapes (e.g. rangeland) appear resistant to climate change, making them an ideal candidate for adaptive land management. Vice versa, expanding irrigated agriculture is unlikely to be sustainable under global climate change. We advocate the inclusion of a large range of ecosystem services into integrated land and water resources management. The focus on cultural services and integration of irrigation demand will lead to entirely different but productive water and land allocation schemes that may be suitable for withstanding the problems caused by climate change.     

Issues in the interpretation of climate model ensembles to inform decisions

There is a scientific consensus regarding the reality of anthropogenic climate change. This has led to substantial efforts to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions and thereby mitigate the impacts of climate change on a global scale. Despite these efforts, we are committed to substantial further changes over at least the next few decades. Societies will therefore have to adapt to changes in climate. Both adaptation and mitigation require action on scales ranging from local to global, but adaptation could directly benefit from climate predictions on regional scales while mitigation could be driven solely by awareness of the global problem; regional projections being principally of motivational value. We discuss how recent developments of large ensembles of climate model simulations can be interpreted to provide information on these scales and to inform societal decisions. Adaptation is most relevant as an influence on decisions which exist irrespective of climate change, but which have consequences on decadal time-scales. Even in such situations, climate change is often only a minor influence; perhaps helping to restrict the choice of 'no regrets' strategies. Nevertheless, if climate models are to provide inputs to societal decisions, it is important to interpret them appropriately. We take climate ensembles exploring model uncertainty as potentially providing a lower bound on the maximum range of uncertainty and thus a non-discountable climate change envelope. An analysis pathway is presented, describing how this information may provide an input to decisions, sometimes via a number of other analysis procedures and thus a cascade of uncertainty. An initial screening is seen as a valuable component of this process, potentially avoiding unnecessary effort while guiding decision makers through issues of confidence and robustness in climate modelling information. Our focus is the usage of decadal to centennial time-scale climate change simulations as inputs to decision making, but we acknowledge that robust adaptation to the variability of present day climate encourages the development of less vulnerable systems as well as building critical experience in how to respond to climatic uncertainty.     

夏热冬冷地区空调系统节能的探讨

介绍了几种空调系统节能措施,并根据夏热冬冷地区气候条件,提出该地区空调系统节能的总体构想,即利用蒸发冷却、除湿机和机械冷却相结合,以达到空调系统节能的效果。     

The impact of climate change on winter road maintenance and traffic accidents in West Midlands, UK

Winter weather can be a significant cause of road traffic accidents. This paper uses UKCIP climate change scenarios and a temporal analogue to investigate the relationship between temperature and severe road accidents in the West Midlands, UK. This approach also allows quantification of the changes in the severity of the winter season over the next century in the region. It is demonstrated that the predicted reduction in the number of frost days should in turn reduce the number of road accidents caused due to slipperiness by approximately 50%. However, the paper concludes by warning against complacency in winter maintenance regimes. A warmer climate may result in budget cuts for highway maintenance which in turn may well reverse declining accident trends.     

Use of the RegCM System over East Asia: Review and Perspectives

The Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) RegCM system is one of the most commonly used regional climate models (RCMs) over the East Asia region. In this paper, we present a brief review of the RegCM system and its applications to the East Asia region. The model history and plans for future development are described. Previous and ongoing applications, as well as the advantages and biases found in the model system over the East Asia region, are summarized. The model biases that exist are mainly found in the cold seasons, and are characterized by a warm bias at high latitudes and underestimation of precipitation in the south. These biases are similar to those of most global climate models (GCMs). Finally, future plans on the application and development of the model, and specifically on those within the context of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), are introduced. This paper is intended to serve as a reference for future users of the RegCM system within the East Asia region.     

The geologic and hydrogeologic setting of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a mined repository for the permanent disposal of transuranic wastes. It has been constructed by the United States Department of Energy (DOE) in semiarid, sparsely inhabited rangeland in southeastern New Mexico. The disposal area is 655 m below the land surface, in bedded salt of the Late Permian (approximately 255 million-years-old) Salado Formation. The extremely low permeability of the halite and other evaporite rocks provide the primary geologic barrier assuring long-term (10,000-year-plus) isolation of the radioactive waste from the accessible environment. Extensive geologic investigations during site characterization have provided information on the stratigraphy, structure, and natural resources of the region (including hydrocarbons, potash, and groundwater), and have investigated the potential for disruption by processes such as dissolution, salt deformation, tectonic activity, and climate change. Hydrogeologic investigations have documented the physical properties of the evaporite rocks, and have identified the Culebra Dolomite Member of the overlying Rustler Formation as the most transmissive water-bearing unit in the region. If the evaporite barriers are breached by accidental drilling intrusion, the Culebra would provide the most likely pathway for radionuclide transport away from the site. Although water in the Culebra is of poor quality and none is currently used for human consumption, groundwater flow and potential radionuclide transport in the unit have been studied in detail. Results of geologic and hydrogeologic studies of the WIPP region indicate that the geologic and hydrogeologic features of the site will provide effective long-term containment of radionuclides. Geologic and hydrogeologic information is used in the performance assessment that supported the DOE’s compliance certification application to the United States Environmental Protection Agency.     

Ensemble climate predictions using climate models and observational constraints

Two different approaches are described for constraining climate predictions based on observations of past climate change. The first uses large ensembles of simulations from computationally efficient models and the second uses small ensembles from state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. Each approach is described and the advantages of each are discussed. When compared, the two approaches are shown to give consistent ranges for future temperature changes. The consistency of these results, when obtained using independent techniques, demonstrates that past observed climate changes provide robust constraints on probable future climate changes. Such probabilistic predictions are useful for communities seeking to adapt to future change as well as providing important information for devising strategies for mitigating climate change.