WRITING THE RULES TO RANK THE CANDIDATES: EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF INSTANT‐RUNOFF VOTING ON RACIAL GROUP TURNOUT IN SAN FRANCISCO MAYORAL ELECTIONS

Instant‐runoff voting (IRV)—a relatively new electoral reform adopted in several cities in the United States—gives voters the option to rank‐order more than one candidate preference for each office. When no candidate initially obtains a majority of first choice votes, rank‐ordered preferences are used to “instantly” calculate a winner without requiring a separate runoff election. The impact of IRV on racial group voter turnout in urban elections has not previously been subject to rigorous analysis. Based on racial group interest theory, I argue that the complexity of IRV increases information costs and obscures racial group interests for voters. Analysis of precinct‐level racial group voter turnout rates in five San Francisco mayoral elections from 1995 to 2011 reveals a significant relationship between IRV and decreased turnout among Black and White voters. IRV exacerbates turnout disparities related to age and education in the population, but decreases the effect of income. The relationship between turnout and racial diversity is diminished among some groups.     

FUNDRAISING COALITIONS IN OPEN SEAT MAYORAL ELECTIONS

ABSTRACT: Mayoral candidates need to assemble a fundraising coalition so they can raise sufficient funds to be competitive. What is the nature of those coalitions? Are they narrow partnerships of like‐minded interests, or are they broad alliances encompassing many different groups? Also, are the coalitions assembled by opposing candidates fundamentally different, or do most candidates receive their funds from the same sources? This article explores these questions through an analysis of five open seat mayoral elections in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle. Most candidates assemble broad coalitions of many different groups, and because of this breadth candidates often have internally inconsistent coalitions (especially labor‐backed candidates). Further, the fundraising coalitions of opposing candidates are usually quite similar. The results show that mayoral elections are not characterized by competing coalitions of donors and that voters who desire to use financial backing as a factor influencing their decision have limited choices.     

POVERTY CONCENTRATION IN THE PRISMATIC METROPOLIS: THE IMPACT OF COMPOSITIONAL and REDISTRIBUTIVE FORCES WITHIN LOS ANGELES,CALIFORNIA, 1990–2000

Abstract: The degrees to which poor populations are spatially concentrated within metropolitan areas are influenced by two sets of forces. In this article, I refer to the first set of forces as redistributive forces, which includes intrametropolitan forces that redistribute populations among different neighborhoods. The second set of forces includes metropolitan‐wide processes that alter the relative poverty composition of the overall metropolitan population. These latter processes are referred to here as compositional forces. This research investigates the degrees to which these two sets of forces impacted poverty concentration among racial and ethnic groups within Los Angeles County, CA from 1990 to 2000. Both forces generally functioned to increase poverty concentration among all groups considered, with compositional forces having the stronger effect. Evidence suggests that the residential experiences of poor whites, African Americans, and Hispanics were strongly influenced by the migratory behavior of the nonpoor in Los Angeles. The Asian population, however, exhibited some evidence of ethnic (or racial) “self‐selectivity,” as this population exhibited less interclass segregation over time. Despite increased poverty concentration, findings demonstrate that Los Angeles became slightly less segregated by race and ethnicity during the 1990s.     

Voting for Trump and the electoral mosaics of US metropolitan areas: Exploring changing patterns of party support by neighborhood

The socio-spatial structure of US metropolitan areas is the foundation of their electoral geographies: political parties and their candidates draw their support from separate groups within society whose spatial segregation is reproduced in voting patterns. As a consequence, when there are changes in a party's support base these should be reflected in its electoral landscape. The extent of such changes is explored here in analyses of precinct-scale voting patterns at the 2008, 2012 and 2016 US presidential elections across 373 SMSAs. Eight types of electoral mosaics are identified using a cluster analysis of those SMSAs and their distribution explored in the context of their socio-economic and -demographic characteristics. Of the eight types, the SMSAs in four showed little change in the voting profiles of their precincts between 2012 (Obama's second victory) and 2016 (when Trump won in the Electoral College but lost the popular vote); SMSAs in the other four types experienced considerable change, with many more rustbelt SMSA precincts delivering a Republican landslide at the latter contest.     

Decomposing the entropy index of racial diversity: in search of two types of variance

There are two types of variance generally associated with the phenomenon of racial residential segregation. One type involves differing racial compositions between spatial locations. The other is concerned with varying residential spatial distributions between ethnic groups. This paper presents a spatial analytical approach to identify and measure the two types of variance through a decomposition of an entropy index regarding racial diversity. A region’s racial diversity entropy is found to comprise three factors: (a) the overall spatial distribution of regional population; (b) the ratio between the number of ethnic groups and that of spatial areal units within the region, and (c) the differential between two types of variance aforementioned. For demonstrative purpose census data from Los Angeles County are studied using this approach. The results suggest the second type of variance to be the primary contributor to the increasing racial diversity in Los Angeles. Implications regarding affordable homeownership and inclusionary housing policies are discussed accordingly.     

Neighborhood Integration: Temporality and Social Fracture

Abstract: This study focuses on two methodological aspects of neighborhood integration measurement: temporal variations and choice of demographic units. In the first case, I use a unified census tract database from 1940 to 1990 to examine the changing patterns of integration in Los Angeles County. In this section, I illustrate that use of the Entropy Index for integration classification may produce results that are in tune with the historical demography of a given metropolitan area. In the second case, I use a cluster analysis technique to illustrate the spatial fragmentation of racial and ethnic subgroups compared to the larger demographic units. This analysis suggests that spatial associations do not reflect the singularity of demographic nomenclatures such as those assigned to Latinos and Asian subgroups.     

EMPLOYMENT CONCENTRATION AND JOB QUALITY FOR LOW‐SKILLED LATINO IMMIGRANTS

ABSTRACT: This article examines the formation, determination, and quality of employment concentration for low‐skilled Latino immigrants. Comparative evidence is drawn from the three metropolitan areas of Chicago, Los Angeles, and Washington, DC. Using 2000 Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), gender‐specific ethnic niches where Latino immigrants disproportionately concentrate are identified and niche effects on wage earnings are analyzed. This study finds that while ethnic niches are evident in all three cities, they are most prevalent among women and newly arrived immigrants, and in the emerging gateway of Washington, D.C. Niche employment is almost uniformly characterized by earnings disadvantage as compared to non‐niche employment, with lower returns premium on workers’ human capital and work experience, especially for men. Niche effects on earnings vary across metropolitan areas in accordance with their economic structure as well as with the size and profile of immigrants.     

BIG CITY,BIG TURNOUT? ELECTORAL PARTICIPATION IN AMERICAN CITIES

ABSTRACT: This article seeks to describe and explain variation in voter turnout in American big city municipal elections using data from 332 mayoral elections in 38 large U.S. cities over 25 years. In my cross‐sectional time‐series analysis of turnout in mayoral elections, I find that city‐level demographic factors are only weakly correlated with turnout. By contrast, institutional and campaign factors explain much of the variation. The effect of Progressive era reforms on depressing turnout is greatest in the most competitive elections. I conclude by discussing the implication of the overall downward trend in turnout and changes cities can make to increase participation.     

Applying Black Threat Theory,Urban Regime Theory,and Deracialization: The Memphis Mayoral Elections of 1991, 1995, and 1999

Abstract: Until 1991 Memphis was the only major US city with a majority‐black population that had not elected a black mayor. Various explanations, including in‐fighting and competition among black city leaders and citizen aversion to candidates who attempt cross‐racial appeals, have been offered to explain the lack of an elected black mayor of Memphis prior to 1991. We first investigate how Herenton overcame these electoral obstacles to become Memphis’ first elected black mayor in 1991, and then won reelection in two consecutive reelection attempts. We then apply Herenton's campaign strategy and the vote in these elections to several popular theories of voting and election strategy in urban elections—black‐threat theory, urban regime theory, and deracialization. Our findings point to the new trend of biracial coalitions in the urban setting and suggest the importance of reconsidering the traditional theories of racial politics, such as the black threat thesis.     

RACE AND SPACE: HIRING PRACTICES OF LOS ANGELES ELECTRONICS FIRMS

ABSTRACT: Some spatial mismatch theorists have incorporated racial discrimination in employment into their quantitative models as a causal factor, in addition to spatial barriers, in explaining the unemployment problems of Blacks. They generally argue that racist employers are more likely to locate in the suburbs, rather than the inner city, which helps to explain why Blacks are less likely to be employed there. We take a qualitative approach to the spatial mismatch question on the basis of personal interviews with employers in the electronics industry in Los Angeles. We found that employers in black neighborhoods were just as likely as employers in non‐black neighborhoods to discriminate in their hiring practices and hold preferences for workers from other racial and ethnic backgrounds. Consequently, black residential proximity to firms is unlikely to completely overcome barriers associated with racial discrimination in employment. We argue that spatial mismatch models face limitations to analyzing racial discrimination in employment that are inherent in their quantitative models.     

BREAKING UP IS HARD TO DO: EXPLAINING THE 2002 SAN FERNANDO VALLEY SECESSION VOTE

ABSTRACT: In November 2002 the voters of Los Angeles soundly rejected Proposition F which, if approved, would have authorized the secession of the San Fernando Valley in order to constitute a city independent of Los Angeles. This article attempts to delineate the interplay of social, economic, and political conditions related to support for secession by examining the results of a Los Angeles Times survey conducted one week prior to the vote. Because an exit poll was not taken following the vote, these data provide the most proximate evidence for the views of voters shortly before casting their ballots. The analysis of the data identifies distinctive social bases of support for secession in the San Fernando Valley that contrast with those outside the region. The results are interpreted in the context of Sonenshein's discussion of the role of coalition formation in urban politics.     

RACIAL AND ETHNIC TRENDS IN THE SUBURBANIZATION OF POVERTY IN U.S. METROPOLITAN AREAS, 1980–2010

This research examines recent trends in the suburbanization of poor non‐Latino Whites, Blacks, and Asians, and Latinos of all races in the United States. The authors find strong associations between a temporally lagged measure of suburban housing supply and poverty suburbanization during the period 2006–2010 for all groups, but these associations are largely attenuated by similarly lagged controls for suburban affordable housing and employment, as well as for other characteristics of metropolitan areas. Findings indicate that poor non‐Latino Whites and Asians have higher suburbanization rates in metropolitan areas with higher levels of suburban employment, while the suburbanization of the Black and Latino poor is more strongly related to the availability of affordable suburban housing. Increases in housing supply are associated with change in poverty suburbanization over time for Whites, Blacks, and Latinos. In addition, increases in affordable rental housing are associated with increases in the suburbanization of the Latino poor.     

BEYOND ETHNIC ENCLAVES? EXPLORING THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF LATINO‐OWNED EMPLOYER FIRMS IN TWO U.S. IMMIGRATION GATEWAYS

The Latino population in the United States has increased dramatically during the past several decades. However, Latino‐owned businesses have been understudied. Even less is known about these firms’ spatial distribution. Built on an interdisciplinary literature on industrial locations and ethnic economies, this study examines how the development of ethnic minority–owned businesses is contingent on the local neighborhood as both a work site and habitat. Using a confidential national survey of ethnic minority–owned businesses in the United States, this study compares the spatial distribution of Latino‐owned employer firms in the Miami and Atlanta metropolitan areas. Consistent with previous research, results from this study strongly reinforce the importance of a connection between ethnic population concentration and emergence of ethnic businesses. A concentration of local businesses and co‐locating with other businesses, regardless of ethnicity, are very important as well. Such agglomeration effects seem particularly important for new immigration destinations like Atlanta where a favorable entrepreneurial environment is still being developed for ethnic minority businesses. However, the positive effects from co‐locating with local businesses are not linear. A threshold effect and small count preferences are detected in the two study areas.     

HAS EXURBAN GROWTH ENABLED GREATER RACIAL EQUITY IN NEIGHBORHOOD QUALITY? EVIDENCE FROM THE LOS ANGELES REGION

ABSTRACT: A wealth of data drawn from cities and their nearby suburbs show that, consistent with place stratification theory, African Americans live in poorer quality communities than similarly affluent members of other racial groups. Yet, few have examined whether these trends are playing out in the rapidly growing exurbs, places that emerged in the post‐Civil Rights era. Through a case study of African American migration to Los Angeles's exurban Inland Empire, this article tests the applicability of place stratification theory by triangulating evidence from interviews with 70 movers with U.S. Census and American Community Survey data. Both sources reveal that the gap in neighborhood conditions among similar income racial groups is much narrower in the exurbs than inner city Los Angeles or its nearby suburbs, an outcome that participants attributed to the region's rapid housing construction, relative lack of a history of who lives where, and resulting neighborhood diversity.     

The Los Angeles Community Development Bank: The Possible Pitfalls of Public‐Private Partnerships

In response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots, the federal government, city and county officials, commercial banks and community leaders established the nonprofit Los Angeles Community Development Bank (LACDB). This public‐private partnership was a new development model, designed to spur economic growth in some of Los Angeles' most disadvantaged areas. The LACDB was capitalized with $435 million from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and ranks as the federal government's largest inner‐city lending initiative. By January 2001, however, the bank had experienced unacceptably high losses and was seeking permission to continue operations, after reducing its staff by half and closing most of its offices. This article examines why this innovative public‐private economic development partnership confronted such difficulties. Public‐private partnerships continue to be an important vehicle for urban economic development. This case study provides a warning of potential pitfalls that can occur from such arrangements.     

LATINO NEIGHBORHOODS AND LATINO NEIGHBORHOOD POVERTY

ABSTRACT: n this article, I use 1980 and 1990 US census tracts that were 50% or more Latino to present a socioeconomic portrait of Latino neighborhoods and to investigate the determinants of poverty and the factors behind the poverty increase of Latinos in these neighborhoods. Results show that Latinos in Latino tracts rank worse than US Latinos on virtually all socioeconomic measures. Recent immigrants raise Latino neighborhood poverty, while long-term immigrants reduce it. The 1979 to 1989 increase in poverty in Latino neighborhoods can be explained better by changes in the payoffs of the characteristics that affect poverty than by changes in the value of these characteristics. Changes in the industrial composition of employment had a relatively large poverty-increasing effect.     

The Decline Of The Political Consensus For Urban Growth: Evidence from Los Angeles

This article explores growth politics in the United States by examining the case of Los Angeles. Recent observers of Los Angeles have noted that growth interests in the city increasingly lack the political coordination to effectively accomplish their projects. One writer has even announced the collapse of the growth machine in the region. Such an assertion is extraordinary, given the power most authors ascribe to growth coalitions and given Los Angeles' strong pro‐growth history. The article presents evidence that the machine has not collapsed, but the political consensus for growth has eroded severely over the past 15 years by a variety of factors. The article then argues that the same general processes that have caused the demise of the growth consensus in Los Angeles are in place in other cities and will likely have similar effects on growth politics there. The article ends by detailing some implications that the end of the growth consensus might have for local politics in the United States.     

洛杉矶会展中心，洛杉矶，加利福尼亚州，美国

洛杉矶会展中心的扩建重新使洛衫机在竞争激烈的展览和贸易会议的市场上处于领先地位，同时为城市的振兴也作出了7贡献，这个23万m^2的扩建项目的面积是原有的设施的两倍多，位于一个非常繁忙的高速公路交叉口上。     

SYMPOSIUM: Putting the Future in Planning

Abstract

Tony de Carlo's image Amidst the Sprawl was created with the area just west of downtown Los Angeles in mind. It is one of the city's oldest neighborhoods and home to the artist, with older single-family homes giving way to freeways and the persistent inching westward of downtown. Its depiction of Latinos and mixed land uses brings to mind just some of the challenges and opportunities facing planners who try to put the future back into planning, as described in this issue's Longer View symposium.

The artist, a Los Angeles native, is the son of an artist mother and has been creating since childhood. A self-taught artist, he exhibits his work regularly throughout the U.S. More of his work can be viewed on his Web site at <http://www.tonydecarlo.com>.

The planning field has been criticized in recent years for neglecting time and the future in favor of present-focused decisions about space. How should planners proceed to put the future back in planning? Each of the four authors contributing to this symposium brings a different perspective to bear. Sam Cole reviews the contributions of contemporary work in the futures field and provides a helpful resource list. Martin Wachs discusses the similarities and differences between forecasting and envisioning, and he provides a commentary on what this means for the identity of planning. Dowell Myers presents a demographic futures perspective that emphasizes alternative interpretations of prospective demo-graphic trends. He illustrates this with regard to California's growing Latino population and the impacts it will have on building denser and more compact cities. Linda Dalton provides a commentary on the preceding papers and finds ample room for expanding planners' emphasis on the future, both in practice and in accredited planning education. Returning to an emphasis on the future could help to make planning seem more appealing and relevant to both citizens and decision makers.     

GENDER,CAMPAIGN FINANCE,AND ELECTORAL SUCCESS IN MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS

ABSTRACT: Despite high success rates when they run for office, women are still underrepresented in federal, state, and local elective office. Past research has explored factors that contribute to the scarcity of female candidates on the state and federal level, but little attention has been paid to the local level. This article begins to fill that gap by exploring electoral and fundraising patterns in mayoral and council elections in seven cities. We find that, similar to state and federal elections, women do just as well as men when they seek office but fewer women run. Further, of the women who do mount campaigns their backgrounds are quite similar to male candidates, raise comparable amounts of campaign funds, and receive contributions from the same sources. In general, we found few differences between male and female candidates. These findings highlight the importance of self‐selection in the decision to run for office.