THE IMPACTS OF STATE GROWTH MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS ON URBAN SPRAWL IN THE 1990S

ABSTRACT: The urban landscape in the United States has been characterized by sprawl for decades. Despite arguments in favor of sprawl or its component attributes, it is widely believed that sprawl leads to many contemporary United States urban and environmental problems. Since 1961, 15 states in the United States have adopted state growth management programs (SGMPs) with various goals, including curtailing sprawl. This article, among a few previous studies, examines the effectiveness of SGMPs on containing sprawl. We create sprawl indices for 294 metropolitan areas in 1990 and 2000, measuring two major dimensions of sprawl: density and land‐use mixture. Our examination of SGMPs involves not only a dummy variable indicating whether a SGPM exists or not, but a score system measuring the degree of state involvement in local growth management and three variables measuring three major attributes of SGMPs. With the refined measurements for both sprawl and SGMPs, we examine the impacts of SGMPs on the sprawl measures in the 1990s of the selected metropolitan areas in the United States. Our statistical results show that SGMPs effectively promoted compact development in terms of population density and land‐use mixture. However, the statistical results do not support the claim that SGMPs with a higher degree of state involvement in local growth management, on average, worked better at curtailing sprawl than those with a lower‐degree involvement in the 1990s. This article suggests that state governments in the United States should more fully exercise their responsibilities to control urban sprawl rather than just leave this issue to local devices.     

Proposing new measures of employment deconcentration and spatial dispersion across metropolitan areas in the US

A well-known challenge is measuring employment concentration across metropolitan areas and analysing the evolving spatial structure. We introduce a new approach that avoids identifying “job centres” and conceptualizes the distribution of employment based on two dimensions: (1) employment deconcentration; and (2) spatial dispersion of high employment locations. We apply this framework to study 329 US metropolitan regions based on 1 sq km. grid cells. We find diverse trajectories of metropolitan restructuring between 2000 and 2010, and substantial variation across regions in employment concentration. The new framework enables researchers to compare metropolitan regions to gain insights into the dynamic nature of metropolitan spatial structure.     

Uncertain economic growth and sprawl: evidence from a stochastic growth approach

This paper examines how the volatility of local economies, represented by uncertainty over future land rents, affects urban sprawl. We develop a theoretic model that links sprawl to shocks to expected rent from future land development, among other factors. The econometric analysis draws upon panel data from US metropolitan areas. To measure urban sprawl, we construct a distinctive measure that captures the distribution of population density within metropolitan areas. Using a proxy for uncertainty over future land rents, we confirm the theoretic prediction that across US metropolitan areas, higher levels of uncertainty are associated with lower levels of sprawl.     

The integrated sprawl index: measuring the urban landscape in Israel

Urban sprawl in Israel began two decades ago, but has yet to be empirically measured or characterized. Major processes that influenced sprawl in Israel were the rise in standard of living, consumer preference for low-density and single-family housing in the suburbs, and the arrival of nearly one million immigrants from the former USSR during the 1990s. All these processes led to a massive transformation of agricultural land into urban land-uses all over the country and provide some evidence that sprawl is taking place as a pattern of development. This study attempt to measure and analyze urban sprawl in Israel, based on a large sample of urban settlements. Higher sprawl rates were found to correlate significantly with higher population and land-consumption growth rates, which implies a higher consumer preference to reside in more sprawling patterns. Variables that are linked with sprawl in Western countries were usually found to be significant in Israel, as well; however, unlike other Western countries, urban sprawl in Israel is rather spatially dispersed, and not necessarily found on the edges of metropolitan areas.     

The Effect of Urban Containment and Mandatory Housing Elements on Racial Segregation in US Metropolitan Areas, 1990–2000

Abstract: Urban containment and state‐imposed mandatory housing elements in comprehensive land use plans attempt to reshape development patterns. Urban containment programs reign in the outward expansion of urban areas by restricting development of rural land outside urban containment boundaries and focusing the regional demand for urban development areas within them. This article assesses the effect of urban containment and mandatory housing elements on the percentage change in racial segregation change among US metropolitan areas during the 1990s. Ordinary least squares regression analysis suggests that while metropolitan areas with strong urban containment efforts saw a higher percentage decline in Anglo/African American residential segregation during the 1990s than metropolitan areas without such policies in place, urban containment had no statistically significant effect on segregation between Anglos and other races. Mandatory housing elements made no difference in racial segregation change between Anglos and any other race. Policy implications are posed.     

Land use regulation and intraregional population–employment interaction

Land use regulations often delay residential development processes and increase the development costs, although they contribute to addressing market failures and realizing a well-organized urban spatial structure. Raising barriers to development can prevent households from moving in response to either job relocations or job growth at certain locations in a timely manner through restrictions in the local housing supply. This situation may also result in longer commuting distances, times, and costs, as well as greater spatial mismatches. To examine the possible adverse effects of the regulations, this study analyzes how intraregional population–employment interactions vary across metropolitan areas that substantially differ in the restrictiveness of land use regulations. First, an exploratory correlation analysis of 40 large U.S. metropolitan areas reveals that highly regulated regions, particularly those with lengthy approval processes, are likely to show a lower correlation between census tract-level population and employment changes and an increase in mean commuting time between 1990 and 2000. Secondly, regression analysis suggests that the lower correlation in highly regulated metropolitan areas could be attributed to the limited responsiveness of the population to employment redistribution within the regions.     

Analyzing intra-metropolitan poverty differentiation: causes and consequences of poverty expansion to suburbs in the metropolitan Atlanta region

Although metropolitan areas have traditionally been viewed as dichotomous structures with a central city and surrounding suburbs, the development patterns of such areas have taken on a multi-ring sectoral and polycentric structure in the context of intra-metropolitan spatial differentiation. Using the longitudinal census database (1970–2000) for the Atlanta metropolitan region, this study showed not only substantial increases in poverty and its concentration in suburban areas such as inner- and middle-ring suburbs and some suburban employment centers, but also causal factors for changes in poverty by race and subarea. The results suggest that unemployment and rental housing burden were the strongest determinants of levels of poverty and its change across race and subareas, indicating the importance of jobs and affordable rental housing to alleviating poverty and its concentration.     

Determinants of Homelessness in Metropolitan Areas

Abstract Why do rates of homelessness differ across metropolitan contexts? Only tentative answers to this question are provided by previous investigations due to their reliance on a limited range of settings and independent variables. In an effort to be more comprehensive, we use 1990 Census S‐Night data for 335 metropolitan areas to test explanations that stress the local housing market, economic conditions, demographic composition, the safety net, climate, and community transience as potential determinants of homelessness. Our analysis uncovers support for each explanation. However, median rent level has the dominant effect (+) on metro homelessness rates, followed by the percentage of single‐person households (+). The robustness of these findings is demonstrated and their theoretical, methodological, and policy implications are considered.     

UrbanSim: Modeling Urban Development for Land Use,Transportation, and Environmental Planning

Metropolitan areas have come under intense pressure to respond to federal mandates to link planning of land use, transportation, and environmental quality; and from citizen concerns about managing the side effects of growth such as sprawl, congestion, housing affordability, and loss of open space. The planning models used by metropolitan planning organizations were generally not designed to address these issues, creating a gap in the ability of planners to systematically assess them. UrbanSim is a new model system that was developed to respond to these emerging requirements and has now been applied in three metropolitan areas. This article describes the model system and its application to Eugene-Springfield, Oregon.     

Latent sprawl patterns and the spatial distribution of businesses in a southern European city

The relocation of businesses beyond the consolidated city is an important aspect of recent urbanization trends. With economic restructuring driven by suburbanization and counter-urbanization, Southern European metropolitan areas experienced distinct growth patterns compared with north-western Europe. The present study assesses the impact of recent changes in the spatial distribution of businesses on land-use structure, sprawl trends and land consumption in a Mediterranean urban region (Athens, Greece) with the aim to identify economic drivers of sprawl and to inform urban containment strategies. Businesses showed two distinct localization patterns: manufacture, publishing and transport companies, construction and hotels were concentrated in urban municipalities; real estate, finance, high-tech, telecommunication, mining and energy enterprises settled preferentially in suburban municipalities. Dispersed urban expansion mainly reflects the spatial relocation of economic activities with high returns on capital to cheaper land. High-tech enterprises and finance/real estate businesses dominated the economic structure of municipalities with sprawled settlements. Policies securing economic development and a land-saving spatial structure are increasingly required to work towards integrated measures promoting semi-compact metropolitan poles and containing deregulated urban expansion.     

The uneven geography of housing affordability stress in Canadian metropolitan areas

Housing in‐affordability is a growing problem within Canadian urban areas. This research asks an as‐yet unanswered spatial question: where do those suffering high rates of housing affordability stress reside and what do the spatial patterns imply about policies intended to address this housing problem? This paper tabulates and maps the spatial distribution of households that pay excessive amounts of their income for rent in order to identify locations within metropolitan regions where housing affordability stress is greatest. It is found that significant unevenness characterises the spatial distribution of housing affordability problems in major Canadian census metropolitan areas (CMAs). Only a minority of places conform to the North American stereotype that concentrates this problem near the city centre. Where some CMAs have concentrations of the problem in the inner city or, alternatively inner suburb, other metropolitan areas exhibit a more diffuse pattern of housing in‐affordability. The locus of the problem is also variable depending on whether the household is of the family or non‐family type. The interpretation of the uneven patterns relates broadly to features of supply and demand that have been identified in previous research. From both a policy and theoretical perspective this work demonstrates that greater attention needs to be paid to the spatial aspects of housing affordability and to the related, economically‐induced risk of homelessness in Canadian metropolitan areas.     

Growth of metro cities in India: trends,patterns and determinants

Using city-level census data this paper examines the trends, patterns and determinants of metro city growth in India and finds that the post-economic reforms period has heralded a rapid pace of metropolitan development, causing a dispersed pattern of metropolitan growth in the last two decades. The empirical results show that metro cities located along a riverbank and situated in the northern, eastern and southern regions of India; cities with better quality public services and those which are state capitals are revealed to grow faster than others. A proximity to a large city also spurs on nearby urban centres to become larger, highlighting agglomeration effects. In contrast, initial city size has a negative impact on metro growth, reflecting some conditional convergence in population growth across cities. It is also found that the older cities have not grown at a rapid pace, with many of them flagging remarkably low demographic growth, suggesting a process of population drift towards the periphery from the core city areas, thereby leading to an ‘agglomerated trend’ of metropolitan development in India. Finally, we argue that diverting investment and development projects towards regressive regions as well as to secondary cities for strengthening their infrastructure and economic bases may herald sustainable and balanced metropolitan development.     

土地使用制度改革背景下中国城市空间扩展:一个理论分析框架

改革开放后,中国社会经济发生了巨大的变化,在城市土地开发及其空间结构方面也不例外.特别是在1987年之后,允许城市土地使用权的有偿和市场化交易,它显著改变了土地开发过程,造成了大都市区内的土地转用加速、城市蔓延等一系列的城市空间结构的变化.从分析中国改革开放后1987年以来的土地使用制度改革入手,阐述土地使用制度改革后形成的中国独特的双重"二元化"的土地市场结构及其形成的巨大的套利空间,来分析土地使用制度改革对城市土地开发行为以及城市空间扩展的影响.     

Where does the coast sprawl the most? Trajectories of residential development and sprawl in coastal North Carolina, 1971–2000

High levels of population growth in coastal U.S. settings give cause for concern about development's effects. Urban sprawl, a potential manifestation of development, is known for its negative environmental and social impacts; however, there have been few efforts to define and measure it in coastal regions where beach-oriented tourism and amenity-driven population growth and land development are prominent. This study describes residential expansion patterns and identifies trajectories for a set of sprawl metrics in New Hanover County, North Carolina over a 30-year time period. Using parcel data and GIS techniques, I developed a set of metrics for nine townships that nest within three township groups classified as: most coastal, transitional, and least coastal. Metrics measuring land consumption, leapfrog distance, land use diversity, and highway strip development are quantified and compared across regions. Most of the metrics were weakly correlated with each other suggesting that they capture different dimensions of sprawl. Results demonstrate that transitional settings located near estuaries between the oceanfront and the interior mainland were consistently the most sprawling. Behaviors of many metrics had complex, non-linear trajectories that would be invisible using either a cross-sectional or two-date approach. The approach can be extended to other regions, both coastal and non-coastal, to determine if there are differences in sprawl patterns that are unique to other environments.     

RACIAL AND ETHNIC TRENDS IN THE SUBURBANIZATION OF POVERTY IN U.S. METROPOLITAN AREAS, 1980–2010

This research examines recent trends in the suburbanization of poor non‐Latino Whites, Blacks, and Asians, and Latinos of all races in the United States. The authors find strong associations between a temporally lagged measure of suburban housing supply and poverty suburbanization during the period 2006–2010 for all groups, but these associations are largely attenuated by similarly lagged controls for suburban affordable housing and employment, as well as for other characteristics of metropolitan areas. Findings indicate that poor non‐Latino Whites and Asians have higher suburbanization rates in metropolitan areas with higher levels of suburban employment, while the suburbanization of the Black and Latino poor is more strongly related to the availability of affordable suburban housing. Increases in housing supply are associated with change in poverty suburbanization over time for Whites, Blacks, and Latinos. In addition, increases in affordable rental housing are associated with increases in the suburbanization of the Latino poor.     

The anti-apartment movement in the U.S. and the role of land use regulations in creating housing segregation

In the U.S., typically, poor and minority households are concentrated in central cities, which are ringed by middle class suburbs which contain a majority of the population of the metropolitan area. The resulting segregation is largely the outcome of public policy and institutional arrangements, rather than the excesses of a free market. Land use regulations have played a central role in creating segregation among the types of housing that are affordable to different income groups. Single family only zoning is a central institution in suburban areas; often multifamily housing is limited to a very tiny portion of the land zoned for housing. Land use policies regarding housing are formulated on a municipal level, in which states have only a minimal role and the federal government has no role. Decentralization of revenue sources and fiscal support for local services, including education, provides incentives for local zoning policies which exclude groups which are viewed as more costly to service, while decentralization of zoning powers make these policies possible. This article describes 1) the basic contours of the housing stock and population distribution in metropolitan areas, 2) the evolution of the single family only policy, and 3) recent efforts to counteract housing segregation patterns, which have had little success. Kenneth K. Baar is a attorney in the Berkeley, California and has a Ph.D. in urban planning. From 1991 to 1993, he was a Fulbright professor at the Budapest University of Economic Sciences. In 1994–95 he was visiting professor in the Urban Planning Department at Columbia University in New York City.     

Income convergence in the United States: a tale of migration and urbanization

We use nonparametric distribution dynamics techniques to reassess the convergence of per capita personal income (PCPI) across U.S. states and across metropolitan (metro) and nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) portions of states for the period 1969–2005. The long-run distribution of PCPI is bimodal for both states and metro/nonmetro portions. Furthermore, the high-income mode of the distribution across metro and nonmetro portions corresponds to the single mode of the long-run distribution across metro portions only. These results (polarization or club-convergence) are reversed when weighting by population. The long-run distributions across people are consistent with convergence. Migration and urbanization are the forces behind convergence.     

Urban Industrial Land Loss and Foreign Direct Investment-Related Manufacturing Job Sprawl: An Atlanta,Georgia MSA Case Study

Using longitudinal data from the National Establishment Time-Series dataset, this paper presents research on intra-metropolitan spatial patterns of manufacturing employment created by foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area. A panel regression analysis reveals that the loss of urban industrial land in the central metro area is associated with the suburbanization of FDI manufacturing jobs over time. Based on the key findings of the analyses, the paper discusses the policy implications of job losses in urban manufacturing and some strategies for attracting and retaining these jobs.     

Starters in the housing market in an urban region: The case of the Randstad Holland,a diversified housing‐shortage area

The access of newly formed households to their first independent dwelling is a useful indicator of the provision of housing for households with a weak position in the housing market. This is particularly the case in a densely populated urban region, where the housing market is tight. However, starters in the housing market do not form a homogeneous group. They differ by age, household composition, and socio‐economic status. Particularly when there are two wage earners in the household, access may be gained to more expensive dwellings. This article examines the housing situation of starters in five types of residential environment in the Randstad Holland: metropolitan areas, strongly, moderately, and weakly urbanised areas, and growth areas. The metropolitan areas contain many small and inexpensive dwellings and thus accommodate many non‐working (often student) starter households. In the least urbanised municipalities dual‐earner married couples are strongly represented among starters. All residential environments play an important part in the housing of starters, who usually locate in the residential environment where they had already been living. Particularly in the metropolitan and (strongly) urbanised areas so‐called substitute dwellings, such as rented rooms, caravans and houseboats, are important in accommodating newly formed households. They help ease the pressure on the stock of inexpensive housing. Starters living in suburban areas tended to move directly from the parental home into their first independent dwelling.     

Response to APA Comment (Drinan, 2015)

Problem, research strategy, and findings: Local governments often react to sprawl by adopting urban containment policies to limit fringe growth and encourage core development. An alternative is to design impact fee programs accounting for the higher costs of providing services to remote locations. Zone-based impact fee programs carry this potential, but there is no empirical work investigating their effect on residential development. We explored the effects of a zone-based impact fee program on residential permits issued across the Albuquerque, NM, metropolitan statistical area using 21 years of data, identifying countervailing influences on density. The program mitigated sprawl by reducing the share of construction occurring near the urban fringe and by increasing the share in more centrally located areas, but there is no evidence the program increased core development. During a brief period when Albuquerque had impact fees but an adjacent community did not, we observed spillover effects that exacerbated sprawl.

Takeaway for practice: Planners managing sprawl can use zone-based impact fee programs that account for the higher costs of fringe development to effectively increase the density of residential construction, but it may be necessary to use regional programs or coordinated efforts to prevent spillover to adjacent communities.