水资源优化配置的冲突问题博弈分析

力求通过建立完全信息动态博弈模型求解水资源冲突分析问题．博弈模型主要针对一条河流上、下游为了分享水资源，从各自要求出发，提出的解决方案与流域管理机构进行协调之间的用水冲突问题，力求通过流域管理机构的水资源费率和宏观调控的水权交易价格，求解水资源可持续发展情况下的市场均衡模型．以此达到有水资源费率和水权交易两种调控手段的情况下各决策者追求自身利益的结果．     

Water diversions in the great lakes basin analyzed in a game theory framework

Water diversions from the great lakes is a complex problem because the five lakes are a common property resource, since hydropower production and commercial navigation are a function oflakes level.Game theory is used to analyze the dependency among eight states and two provinces. The decisions concerning water diversion affect the state of the system in future periods and several scenarios with different restrictions on the lakes where diversions can be carried. This was done with respect to a one player (Social planner), two players (U.S.versus Canada) and independent actions taken by states and provinces which can sum up to ten players.The results suggests that states do not divert water necessarily because they stand to gain but because they may lose more if they do not. This is a situation not unlike the prisoner's dilemma case.     

区域水资源生态经济系统冲突与协调

论述了复合系统协调分析的主要理论与方法,以系统科学与可持续发展理论为基础,以生态学和经济学原理为指导,分析了西北地区水资源生态经济系统的概念、特点、特征、组成、结构、功能和作用机制及水资源生态经济系统的相互作用模式。在此基础上又对系统之间的冲突与协调关系进行了深入分析,总结了水资源生态经济系统主要冲突与协调,并从水资源利用与生态环境系统的相互作用关系角度探讨了实现水资源持续利用的协调和控制。     

Multi-criteria Decision Making for Integrated Urban Water Management

The city of Zahedan, in South-eastern Iran, has high population growth, limited local freshwater resources and inadequate water distribution system resulting in water supply failures in recent years. This paper will investigate integration of several demand management measures such as leakage detection on water distribution network, water metering and low volume water fixtures as well as the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources of this city. For integration of water management criteria, compromise programming will be used as a multi-objective decision making method. The criteria include minimizing the cost, maximizing water supply and minimizing the social hazards due to the water supply operations. This model will derive optimum long-term plans for implementation of water resources. The results will show that demand management can delay a water transfer project for Zahedan city up to 10 years. Compromise programming is as an efficient tool for integrated water resources management in urban areas and the method is capable to being used by decision-makers in other cases.     

中型水库蓄水过程水生态环境特征分析

水库除险加固扩容工程,水位从死水位恢复至正常运行水位的过程,入库和出库流量调节机制发生急剧变化,水库的水文和水动力状态改变明显。该文以周年为时间尺度,以广东省梅州市一亚热带中型水库为例,探讨水库蓄水过程中的相关水文、水环境、水生态变化过程,对蓄水过程中可能出现的影响饮用水水质安全的因素进行分析,并提出类似情况下中小型水库水资源管理建议。     

博弈论模型在解决水资源管理中利益冲突的运用

本文运用非合作与合作博弈的方法,对南水北调中线工程水资源管理中的有关利益冲突进行模拟和分析。其中,以统计学和经济计量学的回归分析法构建博弈各方的效益函数,以经济价值评估法折算水资源的价值和水污染的损失,用成本效益分析法比较不同战略下的博弈结果。模拟结果显示,若以北京为博弈的甲方,则非合作结果使局中的乙方、丙方和丁方分别获得0.15～0.32亿元、0.59～0.364亿元和0.08～0.29亿元的利益,但整体却遭受662.01～1218.33亿元的损失,而合作的结果恰恰相反。因此,如果能够把合作所带来的部分净收益从赢利方转向损失方,以补足损失方的损失,博弈各方均能受益。此模拟方法及结果不仅有利于博弈各方,而且也为水资源管理部门提供决策支持。     

Model-based Regional Assessment of Water Use An Example for Semi-arid Northeastern Brazil

Abstract

Water use assessments are a necessary prerequisite for sustainable water resources management and planning in river basins, federal states, or countries. For reasons of transparency, flexibility, ease of update, and the possibility to generate scenarios of future water use, such assessments are best carried out by applying a water use model. To support water resources planning in two federal states of semi-arid Northeastern Brazil, Ceará and Piauí, the regional-scale water use model NoWUM was developed. It computes withdrawal and consumptive water use for each of 332 municipalities, distinguishing five water use sectors: irrigation, livestock, households, industry, and tourism. The model is suited to simulate the impact of global change and of management measures on water demand. Using NoWUM, the present-day water use situation in Ceará and Piauí is assessed. In addition, the impact of inter-annual climate variability and long-term climate change on irrigation requirements is considered. Scarce and uncertain input data lead to a high level of uncertainty in the model results. It is likely that water use in the most important sector, irrigation, is underestimated, while industrial water use is possibly overestimated. With some modifications, NoWUM has the potential to be applied for water use assessments in other data-poor regions of the globe.     

水冲突治理模式与治理结构

水冲突的实质是水权冲突,水权的界定方式和程度以及制度的调适性是解决水冲突问题的关键。水冲突治理的制度安排存在政府主导、市场主导、社会主导三种基本模式,选择何种治理模式既受到制度本身的影响,也同样受到制度运行的宏观环境影响。改革政府职能与机构设置、完善水权结构、扶持社群管水自治组织发展、建立水冲突多元治理协商机制将有利于促进结构合理、运行高效的水冲突多中心治理结构的形成。     

中国21世纪水危机与节水

中国已面临水危机问题，其中突出的问题是干旱缺水。缺水已成为影响国民经济可持续发展的瓶颈因素。中国水资源的地区和时空分布都不平衡，水资源的人均、亩均水平很低，目前人均拥有的水资源量位居世界第１０９位，已被列入贫水国家之列。预计到２０５０年，水的供需矛盾将更加突出，这就迫使我们一方面要开源，增加供水量；另一方面要节水，减少水资源的消耗。在节水中，农业节水是节水的战略重点。     

菏泽市水资源现状分析及水资源管理的措施研究

本文介绍了菏泽市水资源利用现状,通过分析缺水原因,菏泽市水行政主管部门实施了最严格的水资源管理措施,不断加强水利工程建设、水资源管理机构建设和水政执法监督,增强水资源利用率,严格落实水资源论证与取用水制度,实施最严格的水资源管理考核制度。     

水价理论与应用分析

通过对有关资源理论局限性和差异性的分析，探讨水资源具有价值的理论依据，研究水资源价值与价格特性和国内外水价实施形式，提出从资源管理和资产关系两方面实现水价格，并根据水资源的自然特性、社会特性和经济特性，运用政府调控和市场调节手段调整水价格。     

Computer Support for Implementation of a Systemic Approach to Water Conflict Resolution

Abstract

Water is an important factor in conflicts among stakeholders at the local, regional, and even international level. Water conflicts have taken many forms, but they almost always arise from the fact that the freshwater resources of the world are not partitioned to match the political borders, nor are they evenly distributed in space and time. Two or more countries share the watersheds of 261 major rivers and nearly half of the land area of the world is in international river basins. Water has been used as a military and political goal. Water has been a weapon of war, and water systems have been targets during the war. A systemic approach has been taken in this research to approach resolution of conflicts over water. By helping stakeholders to explore and resolve the underlying structural causes of conflict our approach offers a significant opportunity for its resolution. We define the five main functional activities for assisting the conflict resolution process as: (i) communication; (ii) problem formulation; (iii) data gathering and information generation; (iv) information sharing; and (v) evaluation of consequences. A computerized technical support is developed in the form of the Conflict Resolution Support System (CRSS) for implementation of a systemic approach to water conflicts. Its principal components include an artificial intelligence-based communication system, a database management system, and a model base management system. At this stage of the development, the model base management system consists of tools for multipurpose reservoir operation, river flow routing, multi-criteria decision-making, spatial data analysis, and other general utilities. A hypothetical river basin with potential conflict between stakeholders with respect to water sharing and flood control is used to demonstrate the utility of the new approach and the computer system developed for its implementation.     

我国现有水资源冲突管理制度体系探析

对我国现行的水资源冲突管理制度体系展开了述评。主要梳理了国家制定的水资源冲突管理制度、国务院组成部门的水资源冲突管理制度,以及上述两类制度的主要内容;分析了水量冲突管理制度、水质冲突管理制度以及跨界水资源冲突管理制度存在的不足之处。在此基础上,提出了完善我国水量冲突管理制度、水质冲突管理制度、跨界水资源冲突管理制度方面的有益建议,可为水资源冲突管理部门和相关决策机构系统构建我国的水资源冲突管理制度提供参考与借鉴。     

Conflicts over Water Resource Management in Brazil: A Case Study of Inter-Basin Transfers

Developing countries such as Brazil, with limited track-records in dealing with environmental conflicts on a participatory basis, or whose legal frameworks establishing water resource management practices have been introduced only recently, need mechanisms that streamline and strengthen democratic negotiating and decision processes. Increasingly common worldwide, transferring water is developing into a specific source of disputes whose solutions are becoming significant, particularly in the developing countries. This paper analyzes the application of the strategic choice methodology in a dispute over transferring water between two river basins, which is a situation not covered by specific legislation in Brazil. This analysis leads to the conclusion that the application of this methodology is particularly relevant in cases such as this, where decisions are taken on an incremental basis over time, within a context of political, administrative and legal uncertainties.     

The Use of System Dynamics Simulation in Water Resources Management

In this paper we discuss the use of system dynamics as a methodology with which to address dynamically complex problems in water resources management. Problems in regional planning and river basin management, urban water management, flooding and irrigation exhibit important short-term and long-term effects, and are often contentious issues with high potential for conflict. We argue that system dynamics combined with stakeholder involvement provides an appropriate methodology to address these issues effectively. We trace the theoretical and practical evolution of system dynamics in these areas over the past 50 years. From this review of the literature and selected case studies we identify and discuss a number of best practices and common pitfalls in applications of system dynamics simulation.     

我国内陆核电发展过程中水资源安全相关问题

核电作为一种清洁能源,在我国的能源结构调整和节能减排中起着举足轻重的作用,但其潜在的放射性污染会对水资源安全构成一定的威胁。由于自然环境和社会因素的巨大差异,内陆核电的水资源安全问题更加凸显。在简要介绍了核电站运行原理及安全设计后,阐述了国外内陆核电的状况。从放射性液态流出物污染、冷却水污染和硼污染三方面分析了内陆核电站运行对水资源安全的影响以及我国的控制措施。从水资源管理思路、水资源论证深度、水资源应急响应机制三个方面论述了我国内陆核电水资源管理中亟待加强的方面。     

区域水资源供求失衡及解决机制研究

借助有效的制度安排可以解决因水资源供求失衡引起的水资源冲突问题。本文从引起水资源冲突的根本原因出发,分析了因区位水资源禀赋差异、水资源用途转换、政府与用水户间的目标差异、用水户间的用水行为差异引致的用水冲突解决机制及其运作机理。研究表明,建立水权交易制度、水资源转换补偿机制、信息共享机制和协商谈判机制以及完善法律法规制度,是有效解决水资源冲突的制度安排。     

日本的水资源利用与管理

介绍日本水资源以及其水资源开发利用历史,重点讨论日本近年来农业、工业、生活等方面的水资源利用状况和发展变化历程。最后借鉴日本的水资源管理体系和法律法规,结合当前我国的水资源开发形势,提出思考和建议。     

中欧水资源交流平台

中欧水资源交流平台将成为中国-欧盟流域管理项目取得的主要成果之一,旨在2012年7月中国-欧盟流域管理项目期满后,保持中国与欧盟、欧盟成员国与欧洲其他相关国家之间在水资源政策、管理、研究及技术方面的对话交流。中欧水资源交流平台将于2012年3月在法国马赛召开的第六届世界水资源论坛上正式启动。     

Agricultural Water Use in Turkey

Abstract

Agriculture is the largest user of water in Turkey with 75 percent of the total consumption. Turkey has developed 50 percent of total irrigable land so far. Water is a limiting factor for agriculture throughout much of Turkey. The amount and distribution of precipitation is quite uneven. Turkey, like many countries today, faces challenges in efficiently developing and managing its agricultural water resources while trying to protect water quality and the environment. However, Turkey has some difficulties and problems on water use for agriculture. Current institutional framework and legal regulation, monitoring and evaluation activities are investigated, and agricultural water use and irrigation development are studied. Problems with the lack of data on environmental effects of irrigation and water pricing are underlined. Evaluation of the current situation ends in the conclusion that Turkey needs a comprehensive monitoring and evaluation system both at basin and scheme level, and rehabilitation of irrigation systems for efficient water use in agriculture.