Intervening conditions on the management of project risk: Dealing with uncertainty in information technology projects

A review of the outcome of many information technology (IT) projects reveals that they fail to meet the pre-specified project objectives of scope, time and budget. Despite well-established project risk management processes, project managers perceive their application as ineffective to manage risk. This failure may well be attributed to the inadequate application of those risk management processes. The purpose of this research was to investigate how project managers responsible for the management of risk in IT projects actually managed risk and to relate this back to established project risk management processes. In undertaking this investigation, we were seeking to understand the ways in which the project managers’ approaches and behaviours, when considering risk in IT projects, differed from what might be expected. Results show that because of environment-related and decision maker-related conditions, project managers tend to deny, avoid, ignore and delay dealing with risk, with the consequence of those actions having an adverse influence on their perceived effectiveness of risk management and the project outcomes. If project risk management, and its underlying processes are not to be discredited, the behaviour of project managers when confronted by uncertainty should be considered and actions need to be taken to discourage project managers’ irrational actions.     

The effects of project uncertainty and risk management on IS development project performance: A vendor perspective

The structural contingency perspective has been widely used in information systems development (ISD) project risk management research. This paper develops an integrative model to explore the moderating effects of uncertainty on the relationship between risk management and IS development project performance from a vendor perspective, rather than the client perspective that is mainly employed in the literature. A survey-based research design is used to collect data to test the proposed model. The results reveal that project uncertainty can moderate the effects of project planning and control on process performance and the effects of user participation on product performance. More specifically, the results indicate that project planning and control makes a greater contribution to process performance when there is a low level of inherent uncertainty and that user participation makes a greater contribution to product performance when there is a high level of inherent uncertainty. The results of this study contribute to a more acute understanding of the contingency approach to ISD project risk management.     

From justification to evaluation: Building information modeling for asset owners

Building information modeling (BIM) is an emerging technology focused methodology that can be used to improve the performance and productivity of an asset's design, construction, operation and maintenance process. Typically the investment justification process for BIM has been based upon the utilization of the return on investment (ROI). This measure does not accurately reflect the ‘real’ costs and benefits that are associated with implementing BIM by an asset owner. With this in mind, a benefits evaluation framework that looks beyond ROI and takes into account the evolving nature of BIM by incorporating intangible benefits and indirect costs is presented and discussed. To acquire the wide range of benefits that BIM can offer asset owners, it is proffered that they should shift their mindsets away from justification using ROI to a process of evaluation that encompasses the appraisal of value and benefits' realization.     

An insight into the creep mechanisms of a clayey soil through long-term consolidation tests

Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment - Creep or secondary consolidation of the clayey soil is critical and should be investigated. In this study, the creep behaviour of a clayey soil...     

Collaboration and opportunism as mediators of the relationship between NPD project uncertainty and NPD project performance

This study aims to conceptualize NPD (New Product Development) project uncertainty and investigate how the project uncertainty influences project performance through collaboration and opportunism. An empirical examination is conducted to test such relationships within the scope of Korean manufacturing firms, which are currently engaging in NPD projects with their key partner. Structural equation modeling (SEM) is performed to prove proposed hypotheses. The empirical findings suggested that higher level of project uncertainty leads to collaboration and opportunism and that these two factors come into play in project performance in an opposing way: collaboration serves as a driver of project performance whereas opportunism acts as a barrier against it.     

Building information modeling (BIM) collaboration from the structural engineering perspective

Collaboration is essential for protecting investments and increasing the competitiveness of the construction industry. This study presents the possibility of information interoperability from the structural engineering perspective and aims to maximize the building information model (BIM) collaboration to improve both the work efficiency and quality of structures. In particular, this study analyzes and reviews the possibility of information interoperability in BIM between the structure, construction, architecture, and work-process models by considering the structural engineering perspective in the collaboration. To achieve information interoperability, Open BIM is used as the principal method, and an application-programming interface (API) is used as a secondary method. The level of development (LOD) information interoperability is limited to LOD 300. The analyses and reviews discuss the possibility of practical applications of information interoperability between models in BIM from the structural engineering perspective. Furthermore, an increase in the work efficiency and structural quality is pursued through the BIM collaboration.     

Users as knowledge co-producers in the information system development project

This study investigates the role of users as knowledge co-producers in different stages of the information system development project. Data collected from 269 IS professionals supported our hypotheses that common knowledge has an impact on requirement determination, which, in turn, leads to better project performance. User-IS relationship can substitute the effect of common knowledge on requirement determination in the design stage and user review can ensure that the obtained requirements are actually carried out by developers in the development stage. As a result, higher project performance can be obtained. Discussion of the results and conclusions is also provided.     

企业如何把项目风险管理落到实处

IT项目管理专栏经过充分酝酿．从本期开始与大家见面了。本专栏将由国内项目管理专家甄进明博士主持。甄博士有十几年IT公司的项目管理和运营管理经验，井为国内数家大型IT服务企业提供过项目管理和企业运营管理方面的咨询服务，同时也活跃在项目经理培训和高校项目管理教学等诸多领域，对有关项目管理知识体系，成熟度模型有着深入的研究。通过本栏目，甄博士将与读者共同分享优秀企业的项目管理实践经验．讨论企业如何应项目管理知识体系或模型，以此帮助中国企业有效实施项目管理，帮助项目经理快速成长。我们希望把这个拦目办成一个互动的专栏，欢迎大家对本栏目的文章进行反馈，提出大家关注的问题．甄博士将有针对性地进行解答或组织大家共同讨论。     

军工信息系统安全风险评估研究

提出了系统级安全、全生命动态安全、适度安全等信息安全理念,并将其用于军工信息系统安全风险评估,给出了军工信息系统安全风险评估的原理、详细流程,介绍了各步骤的工作内容,并提出了脆弱性识别应遵守的原则与安全控制措施选择的策略。     

某大型引水隧洞TBM施工项目风险管理浅析

在建设工程项目中,风险无处不在。对于规模大、周期长的隧洞工程项目,在实施过程中存在着很多不确定因素和更大的风险。以某大型引水隧洞TBM施工项目为例,依据风险管理的基本原理,探讨了风险管理的组织机构、项目风险的识别与分析以及风险的防范和应对。     

Water quality modeling for load reduction under uncertainty: a Bayesian approach

A Bayesian approach was applied to river water quality modeling (WQM) for load and parameter estimation. A distributed-source model (DSM) was used as the basic model to support load reduction and effective water quality management in the Hun-Taizi River system, northeastern China. Water quality was surveyed at 18 sites weekly from 1995 to 2004; biological oxygen demand (BOD) and ammonia (NH(4)(+)) were selected as WQM variables. The first-order decay rate (k(i)) and load (L(i)) of the 16 river segments were estimated using the Bayesian approach. The maximum pollutant loading (L(m)) of NH(4)(+) and BOD for each river segment was determined based on DSM and the estimated parameters of k(i). The results showed that for most river segments, the historical loading was beyond the L(m) threshold; thus, reduction for organic matter and nitrogen is necessary to meet water quality goals. Then the effects of inflow pollutant concentration (C(i-1)) and water velocity (v(i)) on water quality standard compliance were used to demonstrate how the proposed model can be applied to water quality management. The results enable decision makers to decide load reductions and allocations among river segments under different C(i-1) and v(i) scenarios.     

Research information: Open Building Systems: a case study

Karel Dekker from TNO Building & Construction Research in The Netherlands explains the Open Building approach for design and construction as the principles of ordering and combining subsystems to create variety and efficiency. The disentanglement of subsystems allows for alteration over time and higher possibility of user choice. The case study of a post-war housing estate in the Netherlands demonstrates how Open Building strategies combined with a flexible rent policy have been used to improve quality on three scales (neighbourhood, building and dwelling interior) and to provide residents with choices about their living conditions.     

Perceptions of architectural design and project risk: understanding the architects' role in a PPP project

Southern Cross Station is one of the largest public–private partnership (PPP) projects undertaken in Australia. In this project the architects played a significant role in developing an iconic design which has received international professional design awards and much media attention. In the media the architects' design was perceived as having impacted negatively on capital costs. Given these contradictory perceptions, the aim of this study was to better understand perceptions of the architects' role in relation to project risks arising out of their design. A survey of key project executives working in the PPP consortium responsible for delivering the project was undertaken. The survey was structured by a framework combining the PPP life cycle, project risks and the idea that architectural design can be viewed as a research and development activity rather than simply as a problem‐solving activity. The survey responses point to the fact that the architects mitigated technical and operating risks and their activities had little bearing on the project's substantial write‐downs. This counters media perceptions of the project that the design activities of the architects created more risks than they mitigated.     

Seismic collapse risk assessment of super high‐rise buildings considering modeling uncertainty: A case study

Based on the multiple stripes analysis method and the first‐order second‐moment method, a seismic collapse risk assessment considering the modeling uncertainty is carried out for a 118‐story super high‐rise building with a typical mega‐frame/core‐tube/outrigger resisting system. The sensitivity of the median collapse capacity of the building to eight main parameters is analyzed, and then the modeling uncertainty is determined. Both the effects of the characterization methods of bidirectional ground motion intensities and the selection of the ground motion intensity measure (IM) on the aleatory randomness are investigated. The mean estimates approach and the confidence interval method are used to incorporate both the modeling uncertainty and the aleatory randomness, and then the annual collapse probability, the collapse probability at the maximum considered earthquake (MCE) intensity level and the acceptable values of the collapse margin ratios (CMRs) with different confidence levels for the building are calculated. The results show that the influence of the modeling uncertainty on the collapse capacity of the super high‐rise structure is negligible, the aleatory randomness caused by the record‐to‐record variability is significant, and an appropriate ground motion IM can significantly reduce the aleatory randomness.     

论以P6数据库为核心建设项目管理信息平台

在分析项目管理软件P6在国内应用情况的基础上,论证了以P6数据库为核心建设项目管理信息平台的必要性,阐述了其在实施过程中需注意的六大要点,这一套项目管理信息化的思路和方法对国内建设行业具有一定的借鉴价值。     

建设工程项目索赔中的风险分担及相关问题分析

建设工程项目索赔是基于建设工程项目合同的特点而产生的一个独特问题。尽管基于不同分类会产生不同的风险划分原则,但在市场经济条件下,首先应当尊重建设工程项目合同当事人之间对风险分担的约定;在当事人没有约定或者约定不明确,发生纠纷后又不能达成协议的情况下,法律、行政法规以及其他相关的规范性文件才会被作为划分建设工程项目合同当事人之间风险的依据;此外,依照合同性质以及行业内的商业惯例合理推定,也是确定建设工程项目合同当事人在索赔活动中风险分担的重要原则。     

Knowledge dynamics-integrated map as a blueprint for system development: Applications to safety risk management in Wuhan metro project

Safety has always been a persistent problem in the construction industry, particularly for tunnel construction projects due to the inherent uncertainty in geotechnical conditions and the complexity of the tunnel construction process. Literatures and practices highlight the importance of safety knowledge to the construction safety. However, safety knowledge is not always provided in a convenient and timely manner. This paper develops a Knowledge-dynamics Integrated Map (KIM) to visualize safety knowledge flow in tunnel construction safety risk management. The KIM highlights the what, the who, and the why of knowledge flow by portraying its dynamics associated to the working processes. With the use of KIM, the safety knowledge flow barriers are identified so that knowledge flow facilitators can be designed. The KIM has been applied in Wuhan metro project as a blueprint for systematically developing effective safety knowledge management systems.     

An object-oriented framework for dynamic ecosystem modeling: application for integrated risk assessment.

Ecological risk assessment requires the integration of a wide range of data on anthropogenic processes, ecological processes and on processes related to environmental fate and transport. It is a major challenge to assemble a simulation system that can successfully capture the dynamics of complex ecological systems and an even more serious challenge to be able to adapt such a simulation to shifting and expanding analytical requirements and contexts. The dynamic information architecture system (DIAS) is a flexible, extensible, object-based framework for developing and maintaining complex simulations. DIAS supports simulations in which the real-world entities that make up ecological systems are represented as software 'entity objects'. The object-oriented integrated dynamic landscape analysis and modeling system (OO-IDLAMS) provides a good example of how DIAS has been used to build a suite of models for the purpose of assessing the ecological impacts of military land use and land management practices. OO-IDLAMS is a prototype conservation modeling suite that provides military environmental managers and decision-makers with a strategic, integrated and adaptive approach to natural resources planning and ecosystem management. The OO-IDLAMS prototype used Fort Riley, Kansas as a case study to demonstrate DIAS' capabilities to offer flexibility, interprocess dynamics and cost-effective reuse of code for ecosystem modeling and simulation. DIAS can also readily lend itself to other applications in ecological risk assessment. It has great potential for the integration of ecological models (associated with biological uptake and effects) with environmental fate and transport models. A DIAS ecological risk assessment application could be used to predict the magnitude and extent of ecological risks and evaluate remedy effectiveness in a timely and cost-effective manner.     

Effect of fatigue loading-confining stress unloading rate on marble mechanical behaviors: An insight into fracture evolution analyses

Rocks in underground works usually experience rather complex stress disturbance. For this, their fracture mechanism is significantly different from rocks subjected to conventional triaxial compression conditions. The effects of stress disturbances on rock geomechanical behaviors under fatigue loading conditions and triaxial unloading conditions have been reported in previous studies. However, little is known about the dependence of the unloading rate on fatigue loading and confining stress unloading (FL-CSU) conditions that influence rock failure. In this paper, we aimed at investigating the fracture behaviors of marble under FL-CSU conditions using the post-test X-ray computed tomography (CT) scanning technique and the GCTS RTR 2000 rock mechanics system. Results show that damage accumulation at the fatigue stage can influence the final fracture behaviors of marble. The stored elastic energy for rock samples under FL-CSU tests is relatively larger compared to those under conventional triaxial tests, and the dissipated energy used to drive damage evolution and crack propagation is larger for FL-CSU tests. In FL-CSU tests, as the unloading rate increases, the dissipated energy grows and elastic energy reduces. CT scanning after the test reveals the impacts of the unloading rate on the crack pattern and a fracture degree index is therein defined in this context to represent the crack dimension. It shows that the crack pattern after FL-CSU tests depends on the unloading rate, and the fracture degree is in agreement with the analysis of both the energy dissipation and the amount of energy released. The effect of unloading rate on fracture evolution characteristics of marble is revealed by a series of FL-CSU tests.