A condition-based maintenance policy for stochastically deteriorating systems

We focus on the analytical modeling of a condition-based inspection/replacement policy for a stochastically and continuously deteriorating single-unit system. We consider both the replacement threshold and the inspection schedule as decision variables for this maintenance problem and we propose to implement the maintenance policy using a multi-level control-limit rule.In order to assess the performance of the proposed maintenance policy and to minimize the long run expected maintenance cost per unit time, a mathematical model for the maintained system cost is derived, supported by the existence of a stationary law for the maintained system state.Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the proposed policy and confirm that the maintenance cost rate on an infinite horizon can be minimized by a joint optimization of the maintenance structure thresholds, or equivalently by a joint optimization of a system replacement threshold and the aperiodic inspection schedule.     

Stochastic analysis of shock process and modeling of condition-based maintenance

The paper presents an analytical formulation for evaluating the maintenance cost of engineering systems that are damaged by shocks arriving randomly in time. The damage process is nonlinear in a sense that damage increments form an increasing sequence (i.e., accelerated damage) or a decreasing sequence (saturated damage) of random increments. Such processes are motivated from damage data collected from nuclear reactor components. To model the nonlinear nature of damage process, the paper proposes the use of non-homogeneous Poisson process for damage increments, which is in contrast with the common use of a renewal process for modeling the damage. The paper presents a conceptually clear and comprehensive derivation of formulas for computing the expected cost rate associated with a periodic inspection and preventive maintenance policy. Distinctions between the analysis of self-announced and latent failures are highlighted. The analytical model presented in this paper is quite generic and versatile, and it can be applied to optimize other types of maintenance policies.     

Online maintenance policy for a deteriorating system with random change of mode

Most of maintenance policies proposed in the literature for gradually deteriorating systems, consider a stationary deterioration process. This paper is an attempt to take into account stochastically deteriorating systems which are subject to a sudden change in their degradation process. A technical device subject to gradual degradation is considered. It is assumed that the level of degradation can be resumed by a single scalar variable. An online maintenance decision rule is proposed, which makes it possible to take into account in real time the online information available on the operating mode of the system as well as its actual deterioration level. We show the efficiency of considering online decision rules for maintenance with respect to traditional maintenance policies based on a static alarm threshold. Numerical simulations are given, to assess and optimize the performance of the maintained system from its asymptotic unavailability point of view. It is compared to the results obtained with classical control-limit maintenance policies.     

Optimization for condition-based maintenance with semi-Markov decision process

The semi-Markov decision model is a powerful tool in analyzing sequential decision processes with random decision epochs. In this paper, we have built the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) for the maintenance policy optimization of condition-based preventive maintenance problems, and have presented the approach for joint optimization of inspection rate and maintenance policy. Through numerical examples, the improvement of this method is compared with the scheme, which optimizes only over the inspection rate. We also find that under a special case when the deterioration rate at each failure stage is the same, the optimal policy obtained by SMDP algorithm is a dynamic threshold-type scheme with threshold value depending on the inspection rate.     

Predictive maintenance policy for a gradually deteriorating system subject to stress

This paper deals with a predictive maintenance policy for a continuously deteriorating system subject to stress. We consider a system with two failure mechanisms which are, respectively, due to an excessive deterioration level and a shock. To optimize the maintenance policy of the system, an approach combining statistical process control (SPC) and condition-based maintenance (CBM) is proposed. CBM policy is used to inspect and replace the system according to the observed deterioration level. SPC is used to monitor the stress covariate. In order to assess the performance of the proposed maintenance policy and to minimize the long-run expected maintenance cost per unit of time, a mathematical model for the maintained system cost is derived. Analysis based on numerical results are conducted to highlight the properties of the proposed maintenance policy in respect to the different maintenance parameters.     

How heterogeneity influences condition-based maintenance for gamma degradation process

In many applications, units from the same population exhibit heterogeneity that they degrade with different rates due to random factors. This article studies how this heterogeneity in degradation influences condition-based maintenance (CBM) policy. Many CBM polices are developed based on gamma process because it is popularly used to characterise monotone degradation processes. In this study, we also model the unit’s degradation by gamma process. To account for the heterogeneity among units’ degradation, we incorporate a random effect parameter in the gamma process. Then the optimal policy for CBM is obtained through Markov decision process. We show that when heterogeneity exists, the transition probability of degradation state depends on both unit’s age and observed degradation level. And consequently, the optimal maintenance policy is a monotone control limit policy. We conduct extensive numerical experiments to validate and demonstrate our findings in depth.     

Optimal replacement policy and inspection interval for condition-based maintenance

In condition-based maintenance (CBM), replacement policy is often defined as a rule for replacement or leaving an item (or a system) in operation until the next inspection, depending on monitoring results. The criterion for determining the optimal threshold for replacement, also known as optimal control limit, is to minimise the average maintenance costs per unit time due to preventive and failure replacements over a long time horizon. On the one hand, higher frequency of inspections provides more information about the condition of the system and, thus, maintenance actions are performed more effectively, namely, unnecessary preventive replacements are avoided and the number of replacements due to failure is reduced. Consequently, the cost associated to failure and preventive replacements are decreased. On the other hand, in many real cases, inspections require labour, specific test devices, and sometimes suspension of the operations and, thus, as the number of inspections increase, the inspection cost also increases. In this paper, preventive and failure replacement costs as well as inspection cost are taken into account to determine the optimal control limit and the optimal inspection interval simultaneously. The proposed approach is illustrated through a numerical example.     

On a dynamic preventive maintenance policy for a system under inspection

The purpose of this article is to propose both state and time-dependent preventive maintenance policy for a multi-state deteriorating system, which is equipped with inspection equipment(s) connected to a computer center. After the system being identified as state x at nd through computation by the computer center after inspection (or measurement) via equipment(s), one maintenance action with the minimum expected total cost since nd till Nd (where N=n+K for a fixed integer 0<K<∞) will be chosen from the set A_x of alternatives also with the help of the computer center. In real case, the expected total costs since nd till Nd will be time-dependent and so is the maintenance action chosen at nd. A numerical example is given to illustrate such a maintenance policy for a Markovian deteriorating system to describe its state dependent aspect only for simplicity reason. Due to the fact that both equipment measurement and computer computation take time, the preventive maintenance policy for a sufficiently small d may be used in fact as the one under continuous inspection.     

Condition-based maintenance for a system subject to a non-homogeneous wear process with a wear rate transition

The aim of this paper is to propose an adaptive maintenance model for a gradually deteriorating system. The system considered initially deteriorates with a nominal deterioration rate and at an unknown time the system's deterioration rate changes and the new deterioration rate is a time-dependent function. To deal with the transition of mode of deterioration in the framework of the maintenance decision rule an adequate online change detection algorithm is used. The maintenance decision rule is chosen in order to minimise the total maintenance cost including the cost of unavailability. The main result of this paper is to point out the interest of using a detection algorithm and hence the appreciation of a decision rule which takes into account transitions in the deterioration rate.     

Real-time health prognosis and dynamic preventive maintenance policy for equipment under aging Markovian deterioration

An often seen practice of preventive maintenance (PM) is to construct a machine's reliability model based on its historical failure records. The reliability model is then used to determine the PM schedule by minimizing the machine's long-run operation cost or average machine downtime. Machines in many hi-tech manufacturing sectors are using sophisticated sensor technologies to provide sufficient immediate online data for real-time observation of equipment condition. Not only is the historical data but also the real time condition now available for scheduling a more effective PM policy. This research is to determine an effective PM policy based on real-time observations of equipment condition. We first use the multivariate process capability index to integrate the equipment's multiple parameters into an overall equipment health index. This health index serves as the basis for real-time health prognosis under an aging Markovian deterioration model. A dynamic PM schedule is then determined based on the health prognosis.     

Dependability and performance stochastic modelling of a two-unit repairable production system with preventive maintenance

In this paper, a two-unit multistate repairable production system is considered in which preventive maintenance (PM) is implemented in order to improve its dependability and performance. A general model is provided for the production system using a semi-Markov process, for examining system’s limiting behaviour. Apart from combining redundancy with PM, we introduce scenarios like imperfect and failed maintenance which are usually met in real life production systems. For the proposed model, we calculate the availability, the mean time to failure and the total operational cost and we formulate optimisation problems settled with respect to the system’s inspection times. The main aim of our work is to determine the optimal inspection times and consequently the optimal PM policies to be adopted in order to optimise system’s dependability and performance.     

Reliability-centered predictive maintenance scheduling for a continuously monitored system subject to degradation

This paper tries to integrate sequential imperfect maintenance policy into condition-based predictive maintenance (CBPM). A reliability-centered predictive maintenance policy is proposed for a continuously monitored system subject to degradation due to the imperfect maintenance. It is assumed that the system hazard rate is a known function of the system condition and then can be derived directly through CBPM. A hybrid hazard rate recursion rule based on the concept of age reduction factor and hazard rate increase factor is built up to predict the evolution of the system reliability in different maintenance cycles. Whenever the system reliability reaches the threshold R, an imperfect preventive maintenance (PM) is performed on the system. The optimal reliability threshold R is determined by minimizing the cumulative maintenance cost per unit time in the residual life of the system which is based on simulation. Finally, a discussion is presented to show how the optimal results depend on the different cost parameters.     

A data-driven maintenance policy for railway wheelset based on survival analysis and Markov decision process

Wheelsets absorb a significant part of the maintenance budget of any train operating company. Although wheel wear has been an extensively discussed topic in the literature, wear rates are very rarely characterized by using degradation data in a real-world case study aimed at identifying optimal maintenance policies including both degradation and recovery modeling. Furthermore, wheel defects, which impose an additional challenge to the modeling of the lifecycle of the wheels, are usually considered separately in the literature. In this study, conducted at a Portuguese train operating company, 17 years of inspection data are used to estimate wheel wear rates and survival curves, which are further incorporated into a Markov decision process (MDP) model. A bidimensional framework considering discrete intervals of wheel diameter along with a quantitative variable (kilometers since last turning/renewal) is used to represent the possible wheel states, while the probability of a defect interfering with the wheel maintenance schedule is modeled by contemplating survival curves derived from a Cox proportional-hazards model. Optimal results in terms of minimal cost policy are discussed in the context of the MDP, but a more realistic and easy-to-implement policy fixing one of the parameters is compared with the optimal policy. Results showed that in practice train operating companies might benefit from using the easy-to-implement policy, which has an associated long-run average cost only about 1% higher than the one suggested by the optimal decision map.     

Integrated production quality and condition-based maintenance optimisation for a stochastically deteriorating manufacturing system

This paper investigates the problem of optimally integrating production quality and condition-based maintenance in a stochastically deteriorating single- product, single-machine production system. Inspections are periodically performed on the system to assess its actual degradation status. The system is considered to be in ‘fail mode’ whenever its degradation level exceeds a predetermined threshold. The proportion of non-conforming items, those that are produced during the time interval where the degradation is beyond the specification threshold, are replaced either via overtime production or spot market purchases. To optimise preventive maintenance costs and at the same time reduce production of non-conforming items, the degradation of the system must be optimally monitored so that preventive maintenance is carried out at appropriate time intervals. In this paper, an integrated optimisation model is developed to determine the optimal inspection cycle and the degradation threshold level, beyond which preventive maintenance should be carried out, while minimising the sum of inspection and maintenance costs, in addition to the production of non-conforming items and inventory costs. An expression for the total expected cost rate over an infinite time horizon is developed and solution method for the resulting model is discussed. Numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the proposed approach.     

Optimal age-based inspection scheme for condition-based maintenance using A* search algorithm

In condition-based maintenance (CBM) with periodic inspection, the system is preventively replaced if failure risk, which is calculated based on the information obtained from inspection, exceeds a pre-determined threshold. The determination of optimal replacement threshold is often based on the minimisation of average maintenance costs per unit time due to preventive and failure replacements over a long time horizon. It is often assumed that inspections are performed at equal time intervals with no cost. However, in practice, inspections require labour, specific test devices, and sometimes suspension of operations and, thus, it is reasonable to inspect less frequently during the time the system is in its early age and/or in a healthier state and to perform inspections more frequently as time passes and/or as the system degrades. In other words, an age-based inspection scheme.

This paper proposes a novel two-phase approach for the determination of an optimal replacement threshold and an optimal age-based inspection scheme for CBM such that the total long-run average costs of replacements and inspections are minimised. First, it takes into account failure and preventive replacement costs to determine the optimal replacement threshold assuming that inspections are performed at equal time intervals with no cost. This assumption is, subsequently, relaxed and its consequences on total average cost are evaluated using a proposed iterative procedure based on A* search algorithm to obtain the optimal age-based inspection scheme. The proposed approach is illustrated through a numerical example.     

Effects of maintenance policy on an imperfect production system under trade credit

The traditional production model development assumed that all products are perfect quality and did not consider maintenance, which is far from reality. In practice, the production process may shift randomly from an in-control state to an out-of-control state during a production run, i.e. process deterioration. This paper considers both preventive maintenance and corrective maintenance which are used to increase the system reliability. The objective of this paper is to determine the optimal production run time and maintenance frequency while minimising the total cost under process deterioration and trade credit. This paper develops a theorem and an algorithm to solve the problem described, provides numerical analysis to illustrate the proposed solution procedure, and discusses the impact of various system parameters. A real case of hi-tech manufacturer is used to verify the model. It predicts a 10.36% decrease in total cost if the preventive maintenance decision is considered.     

Optimal maintenance policy for a Markovian system under periodic inspection

This study proposes a state-dependent maintenance policy R_i,j(T,N,α) for a multi-state continuous-time Markovian deteriorating system subject to aging and fatal shocks and with states 0 (new state) <1<2<…<L (failed-state). Under R_i,j(T,N,α), the system is inspected at each kT for k=1,2,3… to identify the current state as, say a, and then do-nothing, repair and replacement are taken immediately according to 0≤a≤i−1, i≤a≤j−1 and j≤a≤L−1, respectively in case i<j. Additionally, the replacement is carried out whenever L occurs due to fatal shocks. This policy includes numerous maintenance policies in the literature as special cases and can be applied quite generally. We then try to determine the optimal i^*, j^* and T^* such that the expected long-run cost rate is minimized. A numerical example is given to evaluate the performance of the policy.