The impact of satellite-derived wind data assimilation on track,intensity and structure of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean

In the present satellite era, remote-sensing data are more useful to improve the initial condition of the model and hence the forecast of tropical cyclones (TCs) when they are in the deep oceans, where conventional observations are unavailable. In this study, an attempt is made to assess the impact of remotely sensed satellite-derived winds on initialization and simulation of TCs over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). For this purpose, four TCs, namely, ‘Nargis’, ‘Gonu’, ‘Sidr’ and ‘KhaiMuk’, are considered, with 13 different initial conditions. Two sets of numerical experiments, with and without satellite-derived wind data assimilation, are conducted using a high-resolution weather research and forecasting (WRF) model.

The inclusion of satellite-derived winds through a three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system improves the initial position in 11 cases out of 13 by 34%. The 24-, 48-, 72- and 96-hour mean track forecast improves by 28%, 15%, 41% and 47%, respectively, based on 13 cases. The landfall prediction is significantly improved in 11 cases by about 37%. The intensity prediction also improves by 10–20%. Kinematic and thermodynamic structures of TCs are also better explained, as it could simulate heat and momentum exchange between sea surface and upper air. Due to better simulation of structure, intensity and track, the 24-hour accumulated rainfall intensity and distribution are also well predicted with the assimilation of satellite-derived winds.     

On some aspects of precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean using satellite data

The annual and inter‐annual variability of precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean is studied for the period 1979–1997, using satellite data from a variety of sensors. The Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis Precipitation (CMAP), Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) estimates of rainfall had better correlation with the island rainfall data than the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NRA) estimates. A comparison of the mean annual rainfall by different estimates (CMAP, MSU, NRA and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Programme)) showed significant differences with the CMAP, GPCP and MSU estimates depicting maximum off the Indonesian Islands whilst the NRA exhibited maximum in the southern part of the Bay of Bengal and equatorial Indian Ocean. A study of the inter‐annual variability of the monsoon rainfall using the monthly CMAP data over the tropical Indian Ocean for different study areas, namely, Arabian Sea (AS), Bay of Bengal (BB), south Indian Ocean (SIO) and Indian Ocean (IO) showed significant differences during deficit years (1979, 1982, 1986 and 1987), excess monsoon years (1983 and 1988) and also during El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years (1982, 1987, 1992 and 1997). An analysis of the rainfall anomalies showed positive and negative anomalies in the north‐eastern Bay of Bengal during the summer season of deficit (1986) and excess (1988) monsoon years respectively, whilst the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean showed large positive and negative rainfall anomalies during the autumn season of El Niño years, 1987 (deficit monsoon) and 1997 (normal monsoon) respectively.     

Comparative study of aircraft- and satellite-derived aerosol and cloud microphysical parameters during CAIPEEX-2009 over the Indian region

This article presents the spatial and vertical distribution of aerosols and cloud microphysical parameters from the combined data sets of aircraft and satellites. The aircraft-based Cloud Aerosol Interactions and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) was conducted in India during May to September 2009. During the experimental period, 3 days were identified on which space-borne lidar (CALIPSO) and radar (CloudSat) were nearby/over passed the observational regions, which covered north, south central, and southern parts of the Indian subcontinent. The results obtained from these three cases are explored. Similar features of aerosol layering and water/ice cloud signatures are observed by both aircraft and CALIPSO. In addition, events where dust aerosols acting as ice nuclei and polluted aerosols increase the depth of warm rain initiation are observed. The CloudSat profiles of liquid water content, droplet number concentration, and effective radii are underestimated when compared with the corresponding aircraft profiles. The aircraft measurements are able to bring out fine variability in vertical distribution, which would be more useful for regional parameterization schemes and model evaluation.     

Lidar remote sensing of the mixed layer height over a tropical urban Indian station

Mixed layer is an important parameter which controls meteorological conditions in the lower atmosphere. Transport and diffusion of pollutants in the lower atmosphere is highly dependant on the structure of the planetary boundary layer, one important feature of which is the height of the well-mixed layer. In the present study, continuous wave, bistatic argon ion lidar-derived scattered signal strength from different heights in the lower troposphere over Pune (18? 32′ N, 73? 51′ E, 559 m above mean sea level), India during the period April 2007–January 2008 has been recorded remotely and by employing simple statistical tools, the mixed layer height (MLH) and transition layer thickness (TLT) have been estimated. The results show that sufficient mixing of atmospheric constituents such as aerosols exists in the boundary layer in the post-sunset hours during the summer season, enabling estimation of MLH and TLT. On the other hand, during winter months as mixing ceases/weakens by late evening hours, the mixed layer depth is either low or not easily discernible. In view of the importance of mixed layer depth information for various atmospheric applications, the remote sensing tool used and the simple methodology followed here seem promising.     

热带气旋客观定位的红外亮温方差方法

目的 热带气旋（TC）是生成于热带或副热带洋面上的强烈天气系统。在TC的监测分析和预报工作中,准确地确定其中心实时地理位置至关重要。此外,TC的精确位置也是TC强度估计的重要参数。对此,提出一种利用偏差角方差定位TC中心的方法。方法 首先,从红外卫星云图中截取热带气旋主体云系区域,并分别利用Bezier直方图和K均值聚类方法分割得到主体云系二值图像和红外亮温变化剧烈位置二值图像。其中,主体云系二值图像可将TC的主体云系从卫星红外云图中分割提取出来,用割提取出来的图像进行定位可以剔除掉外散环流的小云块对定位结果的影响;而红外亮温变化剧烈位置二值图像则可分别将TC中心密闭云区,螺旋云带和外散环流的边缘及梯度较大区域分割出来,这些区域是最后TC中心定位的主要依据。将上述两幅二值图像相与得到气旋主体云系红外亮温变化剧烈位置的二值图像,这一步剔除了TC的外散环流,而得到的二值图像便可分别将TC中心密闭云区和螺旋云带的边缘及梯度较大的区域分割出来。然后,对得到的气旋主体云系红外亮温变化剧烈位置二值图像进行Hough变换检测以减小气旋中心的搜索范围。最后,以检测区域内每个像素点为参考中心计算得到偏差角矩阵,并计算偏差角矩阵的方差填入对应检测区域内作为参考中心像素点的位置得到方差矩阵,将方差矩阵中值最小的位置作为气旋中心。因为TC除了少数特别强的时候大多数可以用圆形描述,而绝大多数时候TC要用螺旋线描述,但是具体是几度螺旋线来描述合适很难确定,本文用偏差角的方差就可以衡量这些云带、边缘的偏离状况是否集中,方差越小就表示偏离状况越集中。结果 运用该方法对400幅无眼TC红外图像和197幅有眼TC红外图像进行中心定位,分别与中国气象局（CMA）、日本气象厅（JMA）和美国台风预警中心（JTWC）的主观定位结果进行比较并取平均偏差,本文方法对有眼TC定位平均偏差约为27 km,无眼TC平均偏差约为45 km。具体到分别与CMA、JMA和JTWC的比较,对于有眼TC定位偏差分别为26.82 km,26.05 km和27.84 km,无眼TC定位偏差为45.84 km,44.84 km和47.15 km。结论 就结果而言,本文方法定位与CMA、JMA的偏差比较接近,与JTWC的偏差较大。就西北太平洋的TC而言,CMA和JMA的定位精度较高,JTWC精度稍低,这是与认知相符合,并且也证明了本文方法具有较高的可信度。此外,本文方法为TC定位提供了新的参考依据。     

Identifying and analysing uncertainty structures in the TRMM microwave imager precipitation product over tropical ocean basins

Despite continuous improvements in microwave sensors and retrieval algorithms, our understanding of precipitation uncertainty is quite limited, due primarily to inconsistent findings in studies that compare satellite estimates to in situ observations over different parts of the world. This study seeks to characterize the temporal and spatial properties of uncertainty in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager surface rainfall product over tropical ocean basins. Two uncertainty analysis frameworks are introduced to qualitatively evaluate the properties of uncertainty under a hierarchy of spatiotemporal data resolutions. The first framework (i.e. ‘climate method’) demonstrates that, apart from random errors and regionally dependent biases, a large component of the overall precipitation uncertainty is manifested in cyclical patterns that are closely related to large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. By estimating the magnitudes of major uncertainty sources independently, the climate method is able to explain 45–88% of the monthly uncertainty variability. The percentage is largely resolution dependent (with the lowest percentage explained associated with a 1° × 1° spatial/1 month temporal resolution, and highest associated with a 3° × 3° spatial/3 month temporal resolution). The second framework (i.e. ‘weather method’) explains regional mean precipitation uncertainty as a summation of uncertainties associated with individual precipitation systems. By further assuming that self-similar recurring precipitation systems yield qualitatively comparable precipitation uncertainties, the weather method can consistently resolve about 50% of the daily uncertainty variability, with only limited dependence on the regions of interest.     

Modulated opto-acoustical sounding of the upper ocean

We analyse a new optical method to detect and utilize underwater acoustic signals from above the ocean surface. The method is based on scattering of modulated laser light by natural inhomogeneities (hydrosoles, bubbles, turbulence, etc.) whose concentration oscillates in a vertically propagating sound wave. Measurement of the Doppler shifted modulation frequency in the scattered light may be used both for monitoring of the upper ocean sound speed profile and for communication with underwater objects.     

The impact of assimilating MeghaTropiques SAPHIR radiances in the simulation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal using the WRF model

The present study aims to investigate the impact of assimilating SAPHIR (Sounder for Probing Vertical Profiles of Humidity) radiances in the simulation of tropical cyclones over the Indian region by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Three tropical cyclones which formed over the Bay of Bengal are chosen as the case studies. Since SAPHIR is a humidity microwave sensor, it is interesting to assess the impact of these observations in simulating cyclones which depend significantly on moist-convective processes. The study makes use of the three-dimensional variational (3DVar) assimilation technique of the WRF variational assimilation system. The results of the study indicate that the assimilation of SAPHIR radiances do have a positive impact on the simulation of tropical cyclones considered here. Two model simulations are performed – a control run (Ctrl) with only conventional and satellite wind observations assimilated, and a SAPH run (SAPH) where SAPHIR radiances are also assimilated in addition to conventional and satellite wind observations. Both these simulations are compared to each other and to observations from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC), and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), as well as analysis fields from Global Forecast System (GFS) from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Comparison of minimum sea level pressure and maximum wind speed simulated by the model with the IMD and JTWC observations shows that the SAPHIR assimilation has a moderate impact on the simulation of these features by the model. Track prediction of the model is also improved at initial forecast times, as evidenced by the reduced track errors in the model run with SAPHIR radiances assimilated. The warm core structure, as well as the relative vorticity structure of the cyclones, are also impacted in a moderate manner by the assimilation of SAPHIR radiances. The assimilation also positively impacted the rainfall simulation of the model. This is seen from the higher equitable threat score, lower false alarm ratio, and higher probability of detection estimated with respect to TRMM observations, in the SAPH run as compared to the Ctrl run.     

Climatic oscillations in aerosol optical depth over tropical oceanic regions pertaining to genesis of the Indian Ocean Dipole

Data on aerosol optical depth (AOD) derived from the ocean colour sensor of the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) from September 1997 to December 2010 over the western tropical Indian Ocean (WTIO) (10° S to 10° N; 50° E to 70° E) and southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) (10° S to equator; 90° E to 110° E) were analysed with a view to understanding its response to climatic oscillations in regard to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This study demonstrates the existence of a bimodal distribution pattern of AOD in the atmosphere over both WTIO and SETIO, with the highest values being around 1.1 during the period of primary maximum during August over the WTIO and during October over the SETIO. A secondary maximum (～0.9) appeared during March over both areas. In addition, the existence of a see-saw oscillation in the distribution of AOD between the atmospheric columns over the study regions was revealed, with higher values during August–December over the SETIO. AOD data over the SETIO captured very well the influence of these atmospheric modes, whereas the influence was not as significant over the WTIO. Stronger El Niño (Niño index > 0.80) events produced a significantly positive (more than +0.03) anomaly in AOD values over the SETIO during October, whereas the lone mode of IOD events and La Niña were not sufficient to induce any significant change in the aerosol distribution over the area. The mode of El Niño co-occurring with a positive IOD (PIOD) strengthens this anomalous behaviour. A significantly negative anomaly (≤0.03) in AOD was observed with concurrent La Niña (Niño index < ?1.1) and negative IOD (NIOD) (dipole mode index ≤ 1.1) events. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) winds were utilized to verify these observations.     

Interannual variability of vegetation over the Indian sub-continent and its relation to the different meteorological parameters

The dynamic nature of climate over Indian sub-continent is well known which influences Indian monsoon. Such dynamic variability of climate factors can also have significant implications for the vegetation and agricultural productivity of this region. Using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and wavelet decomposition techniques, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) monthly data over Indian sub-continent for 18 years from 1982 to 2000 have been used to study the variability of vegetation. The present study shows that the monsoon precipitation and land surface temperature over the Indian sub-continent landmass have significant impact on the distribution of vegetation. Tropospheric aerosols exert a strong influence too, albeit secondary to monsoon precipitation and prove to be a powerful governing factor. Local climate anomaly is seen to be more effective in determining the vegetation change than any global teleconnection effects. The study documents the dominating influence of monsoon precipitation and highlights the importance of aerosols on the vegetation and necessitates the need for remedial measures. The present study and an earlier one point towards a possible global teleconnection pattern of ENSO as it is seen to affect a particular mode of vegetation worldwide.     

On the variation of the tropospheric ozone over Indian region in relation to the meteorological parameters

Using monthly mean satellite measurements of TOMS/SBUV tropospheric ozone residual (TOR) data and meteorological parameters (tropopause height (TPH), 200 hPa geopotential height (GPH) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) during 1979–2001, seasonal variability of TOR data and their association with meteorological parameters are outlined over the Indian region. Prominent higher values of TOR (44–48 DU, which is higher than the globally averaged 31.5 DU) are observed over the northern parts of the country during the summer monsoon season (June–September). Similar to the TOR variation, meteorological parameters (tropopause height, 200 hPa geopotential height and outgoing longwave radiation) also show higher values during the summer monsoon season, suggesting an in phase relationship and strong association between them because of deep convection present during summer monsoon time. The monthly trends in TOR values are found to be positive over the region. TOR has significant positive correlations (5% level) with GPH, and negative correlations with OLR and TPH for the month of September. The oxidation chains initiated by CH₄ and CO show the enhanced photochemical production of ozone that would certainly become hazardous to the ecological system. Interestingly, greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions were found to have continuously increased over the Indian region during the period 1990–2000, indicating more anthropogenic production of ozone precursor gases causing higher level of tropospheric ozone during this period.     

Characterization of aerosols and pre-cursor gases over Maitri during 24th Indian Antarctica Expedition

Within the framework of the 24th Indian Antarctica Expedition (IAE), observations of total column aerosol optical depth (AOD), ozone (TCO) and precipitable water content (TCW) using a multi-channel solar-radiometer (MICROTOPS-II: Microprocessor-controlled Total Ozone Portable Spectrometer-II), and observations of short-wave global radiative flux using a wide-band pyranometer have been carried out over the Indian Antarctica station Maitri (70.76° S, 11.74° E) and the southern Indian Ocean during December 2004–February 2005. These extensive datasets have been utilized to investigate the aerosol optical, physical and radiative properties, and their interface with simultaneously measured gases. Data over the Oceanic region have been collected from the ship front deck. The daily mean AOD at a characteristic wavelength of 500 nm was found to be 0.042 with an average Angstrom coefficient of 0.24, revealing an abundance of coarse-mode particles. Interestingly, the January fluxes were found to be less by about 20% compared with those in February. The average short-wave direct radiative forcing due to aerosols showed cooling at the surface with an average value of??0.47 Wm^?2. The TCO increased from about 252 DU around 38° S to about 312 DU at 70° S, showing a gradual increase in ozone with increasing latitude. The TCO measured by the surface-based ozone monitor matched reasonably well with that observed by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) satellite sensor within 5%. Variability in ozone on a daily scale during the study period was less than 4% over the Antarctica region.     

Visualizing and analyzing dynamic meteorological data with virtual globes: A case study of tropical cyclones

Visualization is an important component of the evaluation of meteorological models, forecasting research, and other applications. With advances in computing power, the volume of meteorological data generated by geoscience and climate researchers has been steadily increasing. The emerging technique of virtual globes has been regarded as an ideal platform for visualizing larger geospatial data over the Internet. To visualize and analyze meteorological data with the new virtual globes, this paper proposes a systematic meteorological data visualization (MDV) framework in World Wind, an open-source virtual globe. The key technologies, including a hierarchical octree-based multiresolution data organization, data scheduling, level of detail (LOD) and rendering are described in detail. The framework is then applied to a practical tropical cyclone simulation, including flow vectors, particle tracking, cross-sectional analysis, streamlines, pathway animation, and volume rendering. The results show that virtual globes are effective tools for meteorological data visualization and analysis.     

Observations of scatterometer asymmetry over sand seas and derivation of wind ripple orientation

Over sand seas the ERS scatterometer has observed asymmetries similar to those found over open water. In this paper this asymmetric backscatter response is investigated using C-band VV data from the ERS scatterometer and the data are analysed using a simple empirical model combined with quick-look Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data to provide information on dune type and orientation. The results suggest that the azimuthal response is sensitive to the orientation of small-scale (millimetres to metres) wind-induced sand ripples, rather than the larger scale dune orientation. Additionally, the study investigates the feasibility of using such observations to determine ripple orientation over areas of active sand.     

Intraseasonal signals in the daily high resolution blended Reynolds sea surface temperature product over the tropical Indian Ocean and their validation

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration daily sea surface temperature (SST) products based on Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) have been used to understand the variability in the tropical Indian Ocean SST. These products are comparable with the deep sea moored buoy observations and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) SST in the tropical Indian Ocean. However considerable difference is noticed between these satellite SST products and deep sea buoys, especially at the intraseasonal time scale. Further the first Complex Empirical Orthogonal Function (CEOF) mode of TMI and AVHRR SST explains respectively 46.49% and 46.19% of the total variance. The second CEOF mode of TMI and AVHRR SST explains respectively 23.19% and 18.94% of the total SST variance in the tropical Indian Ocean. The AVHRR SST product is important because this daily product has been available since 1985. The analysis shows that AMSR measurements are contributing considerably to the understanding of the tropical Indian Ocean SST variability. Though satellite SST products are able to capture the observed intraseasonal variability reasonably well, more accurate satellite SST products are therefore necessary to understand the climatologically important Indian Ocean region and its air–sea interaction processes.     

Polarimetric investigation of the atmospheric aerosols over the Pacific ocean

Abstract

For a feasibility study setting up the maritime aerosol model, measurements of the radiance and degree of polarization of the skylight radiation were carried out over the Pacific ocean during the cruise of the Hakuho Maru KH-88-2. The wavelengths 0.4,0.6 and 0.9 μm were considered using the portable spectrora-diometer (resolution about 30nm). The derived visibility is in good agreement with that reported from ships. Furthermore the optical thickness and the mixing ratio of aerosol constituents are shown to be derived from the measurements of maximum degree of polarization for moderate solar elevations, provided that the maritime aerosol is a mixture of oceanic and water-soluble aerosols.     

Sensitivity of the Indian Ocean circulation to phytoplankton forcing using an ocean model

Most ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) do not take into account the effect of space- and time-varying phytoplankton on solar radiation penetration, or do it in a simplistic way using a constant attenuation depth, even though one-dimensional experiments have shown potential significant effect of phytoplankton on mixed-layer dynamics. Since some ocean basins are biologically active, it is necessary for an OGCM to take water turbidity into account, even if it is not coupled with a biological model. Sensitivity experiments carried out with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) OGCM with spatially and temporally-varying pigment concentration from Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) data during 1998-2003 reveal the effect of ocean turbidity on tropical Indian Ocean circulation. Variations of light-absorbing phytoplankton pigments change the vertical distribution of solar heating in the mixed layer, thereby affecting upper-ocean circulation. A simulation was performed from 1948 to 2003 with a constant minimum pigment concentration of 0.02 mg m^− 3 while another simulation was performed from September 1997 to December 2003 with variable pigment concentration, and the differences between these two simulations allow us to quantify the effects of phytoplankton on solar radiation penetration in the ocean model. Model results from a period of 6 years (1998-2003) show large seasonal variability in the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), meridional heat transports (MHT), and equatorial under current (EUC). The MOC mass transport changes by 2 to 5 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³ s^− 1) between boreal winter (January) and boreal summer (July), with a corresponding change in the MHT of ∼ 0.05 PW (1 PW = 10¹⁵ W) in boreal winter, which is close to the expected change associated with a significant climate change [Shell, K., Frouin, R., Nakamoto, S., & Somerville, R.C.J. (2003): Atmospheric response to solar radiation absorbed by phytoplankton. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(D15), 4445. doi:10.1029/2003JD003440.]. In addition, changes in phytoplankton pigments concentration are associated with a reduction in the EUC by ∼ 3 cm s^− 1. We discuss the possible physical mechanisms behind this variability, and the necessity of including phytoplankton forcing in the OGCM.     

Digital change detection of forest conversion of a dry tropical Indian forest region

Monitoring of the changes in the forest cover has been quite important because of its significant impact on climatic change. The following study was undertaken to monitor the conversion of vegetation cover to categories of different canopy cover in an area that has undergone very rapid industrialization in the recent past. 1982 and 1989 same season MSS data was registered and the atmospheric haze was reduced using a regression method. Conversion of the vegetation categories to the other categories was detected from the colour-sliced PC2 image of the subtracted bands.