Forecasting Ranking in Harness Racing Using Probabilities Induced by Expected Positions

Ranked events are pivotal in many important AI-applications such as Question Answering and recommendations systems. This paper studies ranked events in the setting of harness racing.

For each horse there exists a probability distribution over its possible rankings. In the paper, it is shown that a set of expected positions (and more generally, higher moments) for the horses induces this probability distribution.

The main contribution of the paper is a method, which extracts this induced probability distribution from a set of expected positions. An algorithm is proposed where the extraction of the induced distribution is given by the estimated expectations. MATLAB code is provided for the methodology.

This approach gives freedom to model the horses in many different ways without the restrictions imposed by for instance logistic regression. To illustrate this point, we employ a neural network and ordinary ridge regression.

The method is applied to predicting the distribution of the finishing positions for horses in harness racing. It outperforms both multinomial logistic regression and the market odds.

The ease of use combined with fine results from the suggested approach constitutes a relevant addition to the increasingly important field of ranked events.     

Are hybrid sit–stand postures a good compromise between sitting and standing?

Potential alternatives for conventional sitting and standing postures are hybrid sit-stand postures (i.e. perching). The purposes of this study were (i) to identify where lumbopelvic and pelvic angles deviate from sitting and standing and (ii) to use these breakpoints to define three distinct postural phases: sitting, perching, and standing, in order to examine differences in muscle activations and ground reaction forces between phases. Twenty-four participants completed 19 1-min static trials, from sitting (90°) to standing (180°), sequentially in 5°trunk–thigh angle increments. The perching phase was determined to be 145–175° for males and 160–175° for females. For both sexes, knee extensor activity was lower in standing compared to perching or sitting (p < .01). Anterior–posterior forces were the highest in perching (p < .001), requiring ～15% of body-weight. Chair designs aimed at reducing the lower limb demands within 115–170° trunk–thigh angle may improve the feasibility of sustaining the perched posture.

Practitioner summary: Individuals who develop low back pain in sitting or standing may benefit from hybrid sit-stand postures (perching), yet kinematic and kinetic changes associated with these postures have not been investigated. Perching can improve lumbar posture at a cost of increased lower limb demands, suggesting potential avenues for chair design improvement.

Abbreviations: A/P: anterior-posterior; M/L: medial-lateral; LBP: low back pain; EMG: electromyography; TES: thoracic erector spinae; LES: lumbar erector spinae; VMO: vastus medialis obliquus; MVC: maximum voluntary contraction; ASIS: anterior superior iliac spine; PSIS: posterior superior iliac spine; BW: body weight; RMSE: root mean square error; SD: standard deviation; ROM: range of motion     

A comfort assessment of existing cervical orthoses

Purpose: Identify location and intensity of discomfort experienced by healthy participants wearing cervical orthoses.

Method: Convenience sample of 34 healthy participants wore Stro II, Philadelphia, Headmaster, and AspenVista^® cervical orthoses for four-hour periods. Participants reported discomfort level (scale 0–6) and location.

Results: Participants reported mean discomfort for all orthoses over the four-hour test between ‘a little discomfort’ and ‘very uncomfortable’ (mean discomfort score = 1.64, SD = 1.50). Seven participants prematurely stopped tests due to pain and six reported maximum discomfort scores. Significant linear increase in discomfort with duration of wear was found for all orthoses. Significantly less discomfort was reported with Stro II than Headmaster and Philadelphia. Age correlated with greater perceived discomfort. Orthoses differed in the location discomfort was experienced.

Conclusion: Existing cervical orthoses cause discomfort influenced by design and duration of wear with orthoses’ design the more significant factor. This work informed the design of a new orthosis and future orthoses developments.

Practitioner Summary: The purpose of this study was to gain greater knowledge about the discomfort caused by wearing of existing neck orthoses in order to inform the design and development of a new neck orthosis. This study gathers empirical data from a surrogate population and concludes that orthosis design is more influential than the duration of wear.     

Estimation of sea state from Sentinel-1 Synthetic aperture radar imagery for maritime situation awareness

A new empirical algorithm CWAVE_S1-IW for estimation of significant wave height H_s including swell and wind sea from C-band satellite-borne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data has been developed for Sentinel-1 (S1) Interferometric Wide Swatrh Mode (IW) imagery. The algorithm was implemented into the Sea Sate Processor (SSP) for fully automatic processing for near real time (NRT) services and allow the estimation of wave fields of thousands of kilometres in the flight direction and 250 km swath from S1 IW scenes consisting of a sequence of individual images.

The priority of CWAVE_S1-IW development was an automatic, fast and robust raster processing independent of wave patterns, applicable even when only clutter is visible in the SAR images. The algorithm is based on the spectral analysis of subscenes in wavenumber space. The empirical function allows direct H_s estimation from image spectra without first converting them into wave spectra and uses integrated image spectra parameters as well as estimated local wind information. A texture analysis based on Grey Level Co-occurrence Matrices (GLCM) is also applied. In this way, also the parameters of short waves can be estimated, which are not visible in S1 IW images and are only represented by clutter.

The algorithm was tuned worldwide using in-situ collocated measurements of 92 buoys with more than 2500 acquisitions. The validated SSP allows automatic processing of worldwide S1 IW images in VV or HH polarization, including Atlantic storms, cyclones, and huge storms in the Gulf of Alaska with a root-mean-square (RMSE) error of 80 cm for H_s. For the closed seas like the North Sea, Baltic Seas and Black Sea the accuracy is higher with an RMSE = 55 cm. The algorithm is integrated into a demonstration service, used for further validation at the DLR ground station in Neustrelitz. The NRT processing has been tested by supporting a research ship cruise in the Antarctic Sea.     

Machine Learning-Based Predictions of Customers’ Decisions in Car Insurance

Predicting customer decisions allows companies to obtain higher profits due to better resource management. The accuracy of those predictions can be currently boosted by the application of machine learning algorithms.

We propose a new method to predict a car driver’s decision about taking a replacement car after a vehicle accident happens. We use feature engineering to create attributes of high significance. The generated attributes are related to time (e.g., school holidays), place of collision (e.g., distance from home), time and conditions (e.g., weather), vehicles (e.g., vehicle value), addresses of both the victim and the perpetrator. Feature engineering involves external sources of data.

Five machine learning methods of classification are considered: decision trees, multi-layer perceptrons, AdaBoost, logistic regression and gradient boosting. Algorithms are tested on real data from a Polish insurance company. Over 80% accuracy of prediction is achieved. Significance of the attributes is calculated using the linear vector quantization method.

Presented work shows the applicability of machine learning in the car insurance market.     

The effect of age on in-vivo spine stiffness,postures and discomfort responses during prolonged sitting exposures

Many industrialised working populations are ageing and prolonged sitting exposures are prevalent across occupational sectors. The purpose of this work was to determine the effect of age and sex on passive spine stiffness, postures and discomfort in response to seated work. A total of 34 participants were recruited, with 17 older adults with an average age of (standard deviation) 63.7 (±3.9) years and 17 younger adults aged 23.8 (±5.0) years. Participants were asked to sit continuously for 90?min while typing. Baseline passive spine stiffness was higher in older adults at 40% flexion compared to younger adults (p?=?.0233). Older adults sat in less normalised flexion, at 33.4% (±16.4) compared to 60.9% (±20.2) in the younger group (p?=?.0003). Discomfort was higher among older adults in the neck, right shoulder and middle back regions (p?<?.0086). An understanding of age-specific responses to workplace exposures is essential to determine whether age-specific interventions are warranted.

 

Practitioner summary: Older adults had higher passive spine stiffness and sat with less flexion during prolonged sitting. Discomfort was higher among older adults and occurred earlier in the simulation compared to younger participants, indicating that interventions, such as walking breaks may need to be implemented earlier during sitting for aged workers.     

Manual patient transfers: factors that influence decisions and kinematic strategies employed by nursing aides

While extensive literature has characterised factors that influence the acceptable mass of ‘boxes’ during MMH tasks, less is known about these factors when moving ‘people’ in healthcare settings. This study examined factors that influence decisions/approaches employed during manual patient transfers. Sixteen nursing aides manually-transferred a standardised ‘patient’; patient mass was adjusted (using a weight vest) to determine a maximum acceptable patient mass for this task (mass_max). Grip strength was the only worker characteristic significantly associated with mass_max (r?=?0.48). Older worker age was associated with smaller peak trunk flexion (r?= ?0.58) and shoulder abduction (r?= ?0.59), and greater trunk axial twist (r?=?0.52). Workers emphasised that patient characteristics (e.g. physical/cognitive status) influenced their decisions when performing transfers. These findings extend previous literature by suggesting that grip strength is a useful predictor of perceived work capacity, older workers adapt protective postural strategies during patient transfers and worker-patient dynamics are crucial during this high-risk occupational task.

Practitioner Summary: This study examined manual patient transfers performed by nursing aides. Worker grip strength (but not age or size) was associated with perceptions of maximum acceptable patient mass. Kinematic changes suggested more conservative strategies used by older workers. Workers emphasised that patient characteristics substantially influenced their decisions when performing transfer tasks.     

Comparison of visual fatigue caused by head-mounted display for virtual reality and two-dimensional display using objective and subjective evaluation

This study aimed to evaluate objective and subjective visual fatigue experienced before and after performing a visual task while using a head-mounted display for virtual reality (VR-HMD) and two-dimensional (2D) display. Binocular fusion maintenance (BFM) was measured using a binocular open-view Shack–Hartmann wavefront aberrometer equipped with liquid crystal shutters. Twelve healthy subjects performed the BFM test and completed a questionnaire regarding subjective symptoms before and after performing a visual task that induces low visually induced motion sickness (VIMS). BFM (p = .87) and total subjective eye symptom scores (p = .38) were not significantly different between both groups, although these values were significantly lower after the visual task than before the task within both groups (p < .05). These findings suggest that visual fatigue after using a VR-HMD is not significantly different from that after using a 2D display in the presence of low-VIMS VR content.

Practitioner summary: Objective and subjective evaluation of visual fatigue were not significantly different with the use of a head-mounted display for virtual reality (VR-HMD) and two-dimensional display. These results should be valuable not only to engineers developing VR content but also to researchers involved in the evaluation of visual fatigue using VR-HMD.

Abbreviations: VR: virtual reality; VR-HMD: head-mounted display for virtual reality; BFM: binocular fusion maintenance; BWFA: binocular open-view Shack–Hartmann wavefront aberrometer     

DISCRETE EVENT-DYNAMIC SYSTEMS FOR MODELING DYNAMIC VALUED NETS

The last few years have seen the development of Discrete Event-Dynamic Net Systems^1,2 as instruments for modeling complex systems. They are able to achieve the following objectives:

—formality of the modeling methodology

—ability to model static and dynamic aspects

—ability to pass between levels of differently rich structures by morphisms

—uniform representation of the communication process as

—an information process

—a decision process and

—a control process

—homogeneity of the representation and modeling methods

—ability to derive qualitative and quantitative statements.

The foundation is provided by a Discrete Event-Dynamic Net System which includes the axiomatic declaration of general Petri nets. In order to calculate the structural and dynamic aspects, so-called Petri net machines are developed. It is shown that this approach can even be used to treat the following aspects:

—use of time during the process

—increase of costs during the generation and transportation of information

—augmentation, evaluation and transformation of information objects.

Recursive formulas are derived and some examples calculated.     

Training visual attention in a naturalistic visual environment

The efficiency of training visual attention in the central and peripheral visual field was investigated by means of a visual detection task that was performed in a naturalistic visual environment including numerous, time-varying visual distractors. We investigated the minimum number of repetitions of the training required to obtain the top performance and whether intra-day training improved performance as efficiently as inter-day training. Additionally, our research aimed to find out whether exposure to a demanding task such as a microsurgical intervention may cancel out the effects of training.

Results showed that performance in visual attention peaked within three (for tasks in the central visual field) to seven (for tasks in the periphery) days subsequent to training. Intra-day training had no significant effect on performance. When attention training was administered after exposure to stress, improvement of attentional performance was more pronounced than when training was completed before the exposure. Our findings support the implementation of training in situ at work for more efficient results.

Practitioner Summary: Visual attention is important in an increasing number of workplaces, such as with surveillance, inspection, or driving. This study shows that it is possible to train visual attention efficiently within three to seven days. Because our study was executed in a naturalistic environment, training results are more likely to reflect the effects in the real workplace.     

On the sensitivity of polarimetric SAR measurements to vegetation cover: the Coiba National Park,Panama

In this study, the sensitivity of multi-polarization synthetic aperture radar (SAR) features to vegetation cover is investigated over a test case of environmental importance: the Coiba National Park, Panama. Single-polarization intensity features and polarimetric features derived from the eigenvalue/eigenvector decomposition are analysed and their classification performance, evaluated against a reference land-cover map using a simple clustering algorithm, is contrasted with conventional optical features.

Experiments, undertaken using actual L-band full-polarimetric SAR and Landsat data, show that (a) polarimetric information plays a key role in improving the classification accuracy with some polarimetric features performing better than single-polarization and optical ones, (b) classification performance of radar features is significantly affected by incidence angles, and (c) a joint use of different radar features is expected to increase classification accuracy.     

THEORY OF CYBERNETIC AND INTELLIGENT MACHINE BASED ON LIE COMMUTATORS

Many attempts^{1, 7, 8, 35} have been made to overcome the limit imposed by the Turing Machine³⁴ to realise general mathematical functions and models of (physical) phenomena.

They center around the notion of computability.

In this paper we propose a new definition of computability which lays the foundations for a theory of cybernetic and intelligent machines in which the classical limits imposed by discrete algorithmic procedures are offset by the use of continuous operators on unlimited data. This data is supplied to the machine in a totally parallel mode, as a field or wave.

This theory of machines draws its concepts from category theory, Lie algebras, and general systems theory. It permits the incorporation of intelligent control into the design of the machine as a virtual element. The incorporated control can be realized in many (machine) configurations of which we give three:

a) a quantum mechanical realization appropriate to a possible understanding of the quantum computer and other models of the physical microworld,

b) a stochastic realization based on Kolmogorov-Gabor theory leading to a possible understanding of generalised models of the physical or thermodynamic macroworld, and lastly

c) a classical mechanical realization appropriate lo the study of a new class of robots.

Particular applications at a fundamental level are cited in geometry, mathematics, biology, acoustics, aeronautics, quantum mechanics, general relativity and. Markov chains. The proposed theory therefore opens a new way towards understanding the processes that underlie intelligence.     

Functional near-infrared spectroscopy in the evaluation of urban rail transit drivers’ mental workload under simulated driving conditions

The objective of this study is to investigate the potential of functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) combined with heart rate variability indices, for the evaluation of the mental workload of urban rail transit drivers under simulated driving conditions, particularly during task engagement and disengagement. Experienced metro drivers wearing fNIRS monitoring systems were asked to drive for 90?min in a professional metro driving simulator. Workload stimulus tasks were added and an n-back task (n?=?3) was implemented to induce workload in the simulated driving experiment. Experimental results indicate that fNIRS are sensitive to mental workload and reliable for discriminating the degree of mental workload. Research findings demonstrate the feasibility and reliability of fNIRS as a tool for real-time evaluating and monitoring driver mental workload along with task factors from a perspective of brain activations during simulated or actual driving.

Practitioner Summary: This study provides evidence for the potential of functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) for the evaluation of the mental workload of urban rail transit drivers under simulated driving conditions. The first fNIRS application to mental workload evaluation in the field of urban rail transportation helps companies develop reasonable shiftwork schedule and ensure operation safety.

Abbreviations: fNIRS: functional near-infrared spectroscopy; oxy-Hb: Oxy-hemoglobin; NASA-TLX: National Aeronautics and Space Administration Task Load Index; EEG: electroencephalogram; ECG: electrocardiogram; HRV: variability; LF: low-frequency power; HF: high-frequency power; PFC: prefrontal cortex; NIRS: near-infrared spectroscopy; DWT: discrete wavelet transform; EMG: electromyography; DT: determination test; TP: total power; LF_norm: standardized LF; HF_norm: standardized HF; VLF: very low frequency; deoxy-Hb: deoxy-hemoglobin.     

Posture normalisation of 3D body scans

For product developers that design near-body products, virtual mannequins that represent realistic body shapes, are valuable tools. With statistical shape modelling, the variability of such body shapes can be described. Shape variation captured by statistical shape models (SSMs) is often polluted by posture variations, leading to less compact models. In this paper, we propose a framework that has low computational complexity to build a posture invariant SSM, by capturing and correcting the posture of an instance. The posture-normalised SSM is shown to be substantially more compact than the non-posture-normalised SSM.

Practitioner summary: Statistical shape modelling is a technique to map out the variability of (body) shapes. This variability is often polluted by variations in posture. In this paper, we propose a framework to build a posture invariant statistical shape model.

Abbreviations: SSM: statistical shape model; 1D: one-dimensional; 3D: three-dimensional; DHM: digital human model; LBS: linear blend skinning; PCA: princial component analysis; PC: principal component; TTR: thumb tip reach.     

Book reviews

Patent Harmonization Harold C. Wegner London, Sweet & Maxwell, 1993 xx + 376 pp., £70.00 (hardback)

Of Authors and Origins: essays on copyright law Brad Sherman & Alain Strowel (Eds) Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1994 xiv + 313 pp., £30.00 (hardback)

Future Air Navigation Systems Werner Guldimann & Stefan Kaiser Dordrecht, Martinus Nijhoff, 1993 Utrecht Studies in Air and Space Law, Vol. 13 viii + 281 pp., £76.50 (hardback)

The Law of Copyright Terence Prime London, Fourmat Publishing, 1992, xxiv + 313 pp., £30.00 (paperback)     

Analysis of natural finger-press motions for design of trackball buttons

This study analysed natural press motions of the index, middle and ring fingers for ergonomic design of the positions and surface angles of the left, middle and right trackball buttons. Finger motions of 26 male participants for naturally pressing the trackball buttons were recorded after the participants adjusted the trackball buttons to their preferred locations for comfortable pressing. The natural positions of the finger pulps formed a symmetrically rainbow-shaped reach zone for the fingers. The natural press angles of the fingers’ motion trajectories to the vertical reference line ranged from 14.2° to 20.5°, suggesting an 18-degree surface from the horizontal line for the trackball buttons. Regression formulas (adjusted R²?=?0.90?±?0.07 and mean squared error?=?8.55?±?7.52?mm) were established to estimate the natural positions of finger pulps from hand segment lengths and joint angles for a population having different hand sizes from this study.

Relevance to industry     

The Proactive and Preventive Privacy (3P) Framework for IoT Privacy by Design

The Problem

Internet of Things (IoT) is providing new services and insights by sensing contextual data but there are growing concerns of privacy risks from users that need immediate attention.

The Reason

The IoT devices and smart services can capture Personally Identifiable Information (PII) without user knowledge or consent. The IoT technology has not reached the desired level of maturity to standardize security and privacy requirements.

The Solution

IoT Privacy by Design is a user-centric approach for enabling privacy with security and safety as a ‘win-win’ positive outcome of IoT offerings, irrespective of business domain. The Proactive and Preventive Privacy (3P) Framework proposed in this paper should be adopted by the IoT stakeholders for building trust and confidence in end users about IoT devices and smart services.     

The impact of external facial features on the construction of facial composites

Witnesses may construct a composite face of a perpetrator using a computerised interface. Police practitioners guide witnesses through this unusual process, the goal being to produce an identifiable image. However, any changes a perpetrator makes to their external facial-features may interfere with this process. In Experiment 1, participants constructed a composite using a holistic interface one day after target encoding. Target faces were unaltered, or had altered external-features: (i) changed hair, (ii) external-features removed or (iii) naturally-concealed external-features (hair, ears, face-shape occluded by a hooded top). These manipulations produced composites with more error-prone internal-features: participants’ familiar with a target’s unaltered appearance less often provided a correct name. Experiment 2 applied external-feature alterations to composites of unaltered targets; although whole-face composites contained less error-prone internal-features, identification was impaired. Experiment 3 replicated negative effects of changing target hair on construction and tested a practical solution: selectively concealing hair and eyes improved identification.

Practitioner Summary: The research indicates that when a target identity disguises or changes hair, this can lead to a witness (or victim) constructing a composite that is less readily identified. We assess a practical method to overcome this forensic issue.

Abbreviation: GEE: Generalized Estimating Equations     

LQ tracking and disturbance rejecting with invariant zeros on the unit circle

A solution of the problem of optimal linear-quadratic (LQ) tracking and disturbance rejecting with invariant zeros on the unit circle of the plant is given, under a quite general assumption. For that purpose, we transform this problem to a problem of LQ control of an unstabilisable plant by augmentation, and then deal with weakly stabilising controls, defined as the controls such that the unstable modes of the closed-loop system are at most the unstabilisable modes of the augmented pair (A, B).

Then we solve the transformed problem by the newly introduced minimal rank weakly stabilising solution of the most general discrete-time algebraic Riccati system (DARS), associated with the system given by matrix quadruple (A, B, C, D), with unstabilisable matrix pair (A, B).

We show and illustrate by examples that there is a class of LQ tracking problems in the presence of disturbances, which cannot be solved by the existing methods, but can be solved by the introduced minimal rank weakly stabilising solution of the DARS.