A multiprocess account of hindsight bias in children.

In hindsight, that is, after receiving the correct answers to difficult questions, people's recall of their own prior answers tends to be biased toward the correct answers. We tested 139 participants from 3 age groups (9- and 12-year-olds and adults) in a hindsight-bias paradigm and found that all groups showed hindsight bias. Multinomial model-based analyses indicated that all age groups used the correct answers to reconstruct their original answers. In addition, the youngest group showed memory impairment caused by the presentation of the correct answers as well as an increased belief that they knew the correct answers all along. These results support a multiprocess explanation of hindsight bias in children. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Surprise, memory, and retrospective judgment making: Testing cognitive reconstruction theories of the hindsight bias effect.

Hindsight bias has been shown to be a pervasive and potentially harmful decision-making bias. A review of 4 competing cognitive reconstruction theories of hindsight bias revealed conflicting predictions about the role and effect of expectation or surprise in retrospective judgment formation. Two experiments tested these predictions examining the effects of manipulating the information presented in a text-based scenario and its congruency with the given outcome on surprise, hindsight bias, and recall. The results of Experiment 1 revealed evidence of hindsight bias after exposure to incongruent and ambivalent outcomes but not after exposure to congruent outcomes. Experiment 2 replicated the hindsight bias results and found that the ratio of outcome consistent information recalled was higher than expected in the incongruent and ambivalent conditions but equaled the ratio presented to participants in the congruent condition. The results were interpreted as supporting the general predictions of sense-making models of the hindsight bias. A refined version of this model is discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Increased hindsight bias in schizophrenia.

An underlying theme common to prominent theoretical accounts of cognition in schizophrenia is that information processing is disproportionately influenced by recently/currently encountered information relative to the influence of previously learned information. In this study, the authors tested this account by using the hindsight bias or knew-it-all-along (KIA) paradigm, which demonstrates that newly acquired knowledge influences recall of past events. In line with the account that patients with schizophrenia display a disproportionately strong influence of recently encountered information relative to the influence of previously learned information, patients displayed a KIA effect that was significantly greater than in controls. This result is discussed in the context of the cognitive underpinnings of the KIA effect and delusion formation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The truth and bias model of judgment.

We present a new model for the general study of how the truth and biases affect human judgment. In the truth and bias model, judgments about the world are pulled by 2 primary forces, the truth force and the bias force, and these 2 forces are interrelated. The truth and bias model differentiates force and value, where the force is the strength of the attraction and the value is the location toward which the judgment is attracted. The model also makes a formal theoretical distinction between bias and moderator variables. Two major classes of biases are discussed: biases that are measured with variables (e.g., assumed similarity) and directional bias, which refers to the extent to which judgments are pulled toward 1 end of the judgment continuum. Moderator variables are conceptualized as variables that affect the accuracy and bias forces but that do not affect judgments directly. We illustrate the model with 4 examples. We discuss the theoretical, empirical, methodological, measurement, and design implications of the model. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Differentiation and response bias in episodic memory: Evidence from reaction time distributions.

In differentiation models, the processes of encoding and retrieval produce an increase in the distribution of memory strength for targets and a decrease in the distribution of memory strength for foils as the amount of encoding increases. This produces an increase in the hit rate and decrease in the false-alarm rate for a strongly encoded compared with a weakly encoded list, consistent with empirical data. Other models assume that the foil distribution is unaffected by encoding manipulations or the foil distribution increases as a function of target strength. They account for the empirical data by adopting a stricter criterion for strongly encoded lists relative to weakly encoded lists. The differentiation and criterion shift explanations have been difficult to discriminate with accuracy measures alone. In this article, reaction time distributions and accuracy measures are collected in a list-strength paradigm and in a response bias paradigm in which the proportion of test items that are targets is manipulated. Diffusion model analyses showed that encoding strength is primarily accounted for by changes in the rate of accumulation of evidence (i.e., drift rate) for both targets and foils and manipulating the proportion of targets is primarily accounted for by changes in response bias (i.e., starting point). The diffusion model analyses is interpreted in terms of predictions of the differentiation models in which subjective memory strength is mapped directly onto drift rate and criterion placement is mapped onto starting point. Criterion shift models require at least 2 types of shifts to account for these findings. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Autobiographical memory, autonoetic consciousness, and self-perspective in aging.

In this study, the authors examined the effects of aging on autobiographical memory in 180 participants by means of a new method designed to assess across 5 lifetime periods the nature of memories-that is, specificity and spontaneity--and the phenomenal experience of remembering--that is, self-perspective and autonoetic consciousness--via the field/observer and remember/know paradigms respectively. Age-related differences were found for the specificity and spontaneity of memories and the phenomenal experience of remembering. There was an increase in observer and know responses with age, but a decrease in field and remember responses and in the ability to justify them by recalling sensory-perceptive, affective, or spatiotemporal specific details. This pattern confirms the existence of a semantic-episodic dissociation in autobiographical memory in aging. Moreover, the data support the view that older participants can subjectively "travel back in time" to relive personal events in the most distant past better than those in the recent past. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The influence of improper sets of information on judgment: How irrelevant information can bias judged probability.

This article introduces 2 new sources of bias in probability judgment, discrimination failure and inhibition failure, which are conceptualized as arising from an interaction between error prone memory processes and a support theory like comparison process. Both sources of bias stem from the influence of irrelevant information on participants' probability judgments, but they postulate different mechanisms for how irrelevant information affects judgment. The authors used an adaptation of the proactive interference (PI) and release from PI paradigm to test the effect of irrelevant information on judgment. The results of 2 experiments support the discrimination failure account of the effect of PI on probability judgment. In addition, the authors show that 2 commonly used measures of judgment accuracy, absolute and relative accuracy, can be dissociated. The results have broad implications for theories of judgment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Differential effects of age on item and associative measures of memory: A meta-analysis.

In this meta-analysis, the authors evaluated recent suggestions that older adults' episodic memory impairments are partially due to a reduced ability to encode and retrieve associated/bound units of information. Results of 90 studies of episodic memory for both item and associative information in 3,197 young and 3,192 older adults provided support for the age-related associative/binding deficit suggestion, indicating a larger effect of age on memory for associative information than for item information. Moderators assessed included the type of associations, encoding instructions, materials, and test format. Results indicated an age-related associative deficit in memory for source, context, temporal order, spatial location, and item pairings, in both verbal and nonverbal material. An age-related associative deficit was quite pronounced under intentional learning instructions but was not clearly evident under incidental learning instructions. Finally, test format was also found to moderate the associative deficit, with older adults showing an associative/binding deficit when item memory was evaluated via recognition tests but not when item memory was evaluated via recall tests, in which case the age-related deficits were similar for item and associative information. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Adult aging effects on semantic and episodic priming in word recognition.

Two experiments compared automatic semantic and episodic priming effects in adult aging. In the 1st experiment, target words were semantically primed; in the 2nd experiment, targets were primed by repetition of semantically unrelated words. Both experiments involved a pronunciation task with response signals at fixed times following target onset. Consequently, priming was measured as improvement in the percentage of correct responses. Priming was also calculated with speed–accuracy measures of intercept and slope. Both types of priming effect were significant in the percentage correct and slope measures, but no age group differences were found. Furthermore, the magnitudes of the priming effects were equivalent. The age-resistant nature of semantic and episodic priming, as well as evidence for a common theoretical mechanism, is discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The effects of attention on age-related relational memory deficits: Evidence from a novel attentional manipulation.

Healthy aging is often accompanied by episodic memory decline. Prior studies have consistently demonstrated that older adults show disproportionate deficits in relational memory (RM) relative to item memory (IM). Despite rich evidence of an age-related RM deficit, the source of this deficit remains unspecified. One of the most widely investigated factors of age-related RM impairment is a reduction in attentional resources. However, no prior studies have demonstrated that reduced attentional resources are the critical source of age-related RM deficits. Here, we used qualitatively different attention tasks and tested whether reduced attention for relational processing underlies the RM deficit observed in aging. In Experiment 1, we imposed either item-detection or relation-detection attention tasks on young adults during episodic memory encoding and found that only the concurrent attention task that involves relational processing disproportionately impaired RM performance in young adults. Moreover, by ruling out the possible confound of task difficulty on the disproportionate RM impairment, we further demonstrated that reduced relational attention is a key factor for the age-related RM deficit. In Experiment 2, we replicated the results from Experiment 1 by using different materials of stimuli and found that the effect of relational attention on RM is material general. The results of Experiment 2 also showed that reducing attentional resources for relational processing in young adults strikingly equated their RM performance to that of older adults. Thus, this study documents the first evidence that reduced attentional resources for relational processing are a critical factor for the relational memory impairment observed in aging. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Separating bias and sensitivity in judgments of associative memory.

Ratings of the degree of association between words are linearly related to normed associative strengths, but the intercept is high, and the slope is shallow (the judgments of associative memory [JAM] function). Two experiments included manipulations intended to decrease the intercept and increase the slope. Discrimination training on many pairs of words and constraining ratings to sum to a constant both reduced the intercept but failed to change the slope. The intercept of the JAM function appears to contain a bias component that can be manipulated independently of the slope, which reflects sensitivity to associative strengths. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Aging and integration of contingency evidence in causal judgment.

Age differences in causal judgment are consistently greater for preventative/negative relationships than for generative/positive relationships. In this study, a feature analytic procedure (Mandel & Lehman, 1998) was used to determine whether this effect might be due to differences in young and older adults’ integration of contingency evidence during causal induction. To reduce the impact of age-related changes in learning/memory, the authors presented contingency evidence for preventative, noncontingent, and generative relationships in summary form; the meaningfulness of causal context was varied to induce participants to integrate greater or lesser amounts of this evidence. Young adults showed greater flexibility in their integration processes than did older adults. In an abstract causal context, there were no age differences in causal judgment or integration, but in meaningful contexts, young adults’ judgments for preventative relationships were more accurate than older adults’ and young adults assigned more weight to the contingency evidence confirming these relationships. These differences were mediated by age-related changes in processing speed. The decline in this basic cognitive resource may place boundaries on the amount or type of evidence that older adults can integrate for causal judgment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Working memory and aging: Separating the effects of content and context.

In 3 experiments, we investigated the hypothesis that age-related differences in working memory might be due to the inability to bind content with context. Participants were required to find a repeating stimulus within a single series (no context memory required) or within multiple series (necessitating memory for context). Response time and accuracy were examined in 2 task domains: verbal and visuospatial. Binding content with context led to longer processing time and poorer accuracy in both age groups, even when working memory load was held constant. Although older adults were overall slower and less accurate than young adults, the need for context memory did not differentially affect their performance. It is therefore unlikely that age differences in working memory are due to specific age-related problems with content-with-context binding. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The pursuit of self-interest: Self-interest bias in attitude judgment and persuasion.

Self-interest affected the direction of attitudes in 4 studies exploring attitude judgment and persuasion. Experiment 1 showed that both self-interest and symbolic concerns predicted attitudes. The biasing role of self-interest in producing the well-known persuasion effects of personal relevance and argument strength was examined by disentangling the competing effects of personal costs and benefits. Experiment 2 used a standard personal relevance manipulation in the absence of supportive arguments and showed that perceptions of personal costs associated with the advocated policy partially mediated its negative effects on attitudes. Experiments 3 and 4 independently manipulated the onset of personal costs associated with an issue and the onset of issue-related benefits conveyed by supportive arguments. Postmessage attitudes were an additive function of personal costs and argument-specified benefits, and perceived costs and benefits biased information processing in a self-interested manner. A revised conception of personal relevance and argument strength is discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

False memory in aging: Effects of emotional valence on word recognition accuracy.

Memory is susceptible to distortions. Valence and increasing age are variables known to affect memory accuracy and may increase false alarm production. Interaction between these variables and their impact on false memory was investigated in 36 young (18-28 years) and 36 older (61-83 years) healthy adults. At study, participants viewed lists of neutral words orthographically related to negative, neutral, or positive critical lures (not presented). Memory for these words was subsequently tested with a remember-know procedure. At test, items included the words seen at study and their associated critical lures, as well as sets of orthographically related neutral words not seen at study and their associated unstudied lures. Positive valence was shown to have two opposite effects on older adults' discrimination of the lures: It improved correct rejection of unstudied lures but increased false memory for critical lures (i.e., lures associated with words studied previously). Thus, increased salience triggered by positive valence may disrupt memory accuracy in older adults when discriminating among similar events. These findings likely reflect a source memory deficit due to decreased efficiency in cognitive control processes with aging. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The associative memory deficit of older adults: The role of strategy utilization.

Past research has established an associative deficit hypothesis (e.g., M. Naveh-Benjamin, 2000) that attributes part of older adults' poor episodic memory performance to their difficulty in creating and retrieving cohesive episodes. Here, the authors evaluate the degree to which this deficit can be reduced by older adults' use of associative strategies. Young and older adults learned word pairs under either intentional-learning instructions or instructions eliciting associative strategies either at encoding or both at encoding and at retrieval, and they then took tests on their memory for both the components and the associations. Results replicated the associative deficit of older adults under intentional-learning instructions. In addition, they showed that instructions to use appropriate associative strategies during either encoding or, even more so, during encoding and retrieval resulted in a significant decrease in the associative deficit. The theoretical and applied implications of these results are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The effects of aging on memory for sequentially presented objects in rats.

The current study investigated memory for sequentially presented objects in young rats 6 months old (n = 12) and aged rats 24 months old (n = 12). Rats were tested on a task involving three exploratory trials and one probe test. During the exploratory trials, the rat explored a set of three sequentially presented object pairs (A-A, B-B, and C-C) for 5 min per pair with a 3-min delay between each pair. Following the exploratory trials, a probe test was conducted where the rat was presented simultaneously with one object from the first exploratory trial (A) and one object from the third exploratory trial (C). Results from the exploratory trials showed no significant age-related differences in exploration, indicating that 24-month-old rats explored the object pairs as much as 6-month-old rats. The probe test demonstrated that 6-month-old rats spent significantly more time exploring object A compared to object C, indicating that young rats show intact temporal order memory for the exploratory trial objects. However, 24-month-old rats showed no preference for object A and spent a relatively equal amount of time exploring objects A and C. The results suggest that temporal order memory declines as a result of age-related changes in the rodent brain. The findings also may reflect differences in attraction to objects with different memory strengths. Since age-related differences were not detected during the exploratory trials, age-related differences on the probe trial were not due solely to decreased exploration, motivation, or locomotion. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

False beliefs maintenance for fear-related information in obsessive-compulsive disorder: An investigation with the hindsight paradigm.

The present study tested whether participants with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) overestimate the incidence frequency of OCD-relevant phenomena and display a decreased hindsight bias for concern-related information, which may represent a maintenance factor for OCD. Thirty participants with OCD and 39 control participants were requested to estimate the incidence frequency of 8 events in each of 4 domains: washing-relevant, checking-relevant, negative, or neutral. Subsequently, participants received the correct statistics for all items and were requested to affectively appraise these. Two hours later participants had to reproduce their initial estimates. No differences emerged between participants with OCD and control participants regarding initial estimates. In case the frequency of an OCD-relevant item was initially largely overestimated, control participants expressed more relief when confronted with the correct solution than participants with OCD, especially for washing-relevant items. The recalled estimates showed a typical hindsight bias (i.e., the reproduced estimates were biased toward the correct response), but with no difference between groups. In sum, participants were normal in their subjective estimates of OCD-relevant events, and there was no evidence for a heightened maintenance of false beliefs. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Exemplar effects in categorization and multiple-cue judgment.

Categorization and multiple-cue judgment are similar tasks, but the influential models in the two areas are different in terms of the computations, processes, and neural substrates that they imply. In categorization, exemplar memory is often emphasized, whereas multiple-cue judgment generally is interpreted in terms of integration of Cues that have been abstracted in training. In 3 experiments the authors investigated whether these conclusions derive from genuine differences in the processes or are accidental to the different research methods. The results revealed large individual differences and a shift from exemplar memory to cue abstraction when the criterion is changed from a binary to a continuous variable, especially for a probabilistic criterion. People appear to switch between qualitatively distinct processes in the 2 tasks. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)