Estimation of potential impact of climate change on the heating energy use of existing houses

This paper presents a method for the estimation of potential impact of climate change on the heating energy use of existing houses. The proposed method is based on the house energy signature that is developed from historical energy use data. The method can be applied to any individual house, by using the utility bills from the owner, or can be used by utility companies, which have databases of recorded energy use for large number of houses. The second case can lead to accurate estimates of potential impact of climate change within a city, a province or a country. A case study of a house in Montreal (Canada) is presented, and the results obtained with different sampling rates of data are discussed. The method is also applied to a sample of 11 existing houses, and the results show the reduction of heating energy use between 7.9% and 16.9% due to climate change between the present period (1961–1990) and the future period (2040–2069).     

The impact of climate change on the electricity market: A review

Climate change will impact electricity markets through both electricity demand and supply. This paper reviews the research on this topic. Whereas there is much that remains unknown or uncertain, research over the last few years has significantly advanced our knowledge. In general, higher temperatures are expected to raise electricity demand for cooling, decrease demand for heating, and to reduce electricity production from thermal power plants. The effect of climate change on the supply of electricity from non-thermal sources shows great geographical variability due to differences in expected changes to temperature and precipitation. Whereas the research frontier has advanced significantly in the last few years, there still remains a significant need for more research in order to better understand the effects of climate change on the electricity market. Four significant gaps in the current research are regional studies of demand side impacts for Africa, Asia, the Caribbean and Latin America, the effects of extreme weather events on electricity generation, transmission and demand, changes to the adoption rate of air conditioning, and finally, our understanding of the sensitivity of thermal power supply to changes in air and water temperatures.     

The role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios: An analysis with the World-TIMES model

There is a revival in the nuclear debate observed in the literature. Several analyses have shown that nuclear technologies may represent very attractive options for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, especially in countries with high growth projections for energy demand. Our objective is to analyze the role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios using the World-TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) bottom-up model. World-TIMES is a global model that optimizes the energy system of 15 regions over a 100-year horizon (2000–2100).     

Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

Energy demand depends on outdoor temperature in a ‘u’ shaped fashion. Various studies have used this temperature dependence to investigate the effects of climate change on energy demand. Such studies contain implicit or explicit assumptions to describe expected socio-economic changes that may affect future energy demand.This paper critically analyzes these implicit or explicit assumptions and their possible effect on the studies' outcomes. First we analyze the interaction between the socio-economic structure and the temperature dependence pattern (TDP) of energy demand. We find that socio-economic changes may alter the TDP in various ways. Next we investigate how current studies manage these dynamics in socio-economic structure. We find that many studies systematically misrepresent the possible effect of socio-economic changes on the TDP of energy demand. Finally, we assess the consequences of these misrepresentations in an energy demand model based on temperature dependence and climate scenarios. Our model results indicate that expected socio-economic dynamics generally lead to an underestimation of future energy demand in models that misrepresent such dynamics. We conclude that future energy demand models should improve the incorporation of socio-economic dynamics. We propose dynamically modeling several key parameters and using direct meteorological data instead of degree days.     

The UK solar energy resource and the impact of climate change

Solar energy use in the UK is increasing dramatically, providing both heat energy and generation of electricity. This trend is expected to continue due to solar technologies becoming cheaper and more readily available along with low carbon government legislation such as the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) and Feed in Tariffs (FiTs) supporting solar energy deployment. However, the effects of climate change on the solar resource remain largely unstudied. Climate change affects cloud cover characteristics and consequently directly affects the performance of solar energy technologies.This paper investigates the UK solar irradiation resource for both the present and future climates.The present solar irradiation level was assessed through the conversion of 30 years of observed historical monthly average sunshine duration data. The method and results are validated by comparing the converted solar irradiation levels to actual solar irradiance measurements at weather stations with significant historical records of solar irradiance data.The impact of climate change is investigated across different regions of the UK by using the UKCP09 probabilistic climate change projections.We find that the current average UK annual solar resource is 101.2 Wm⁻², ranging from 128.4 Wm⁻² in the south of England to 71.8 Wm⁻² in the northwest of Scotland. It seems likely that climate change will increase the average resource in the south of the UK, while marginally decreasing it in the Northwest. The overall effect is a mean increase of the UK solar resource, however it will have greater seasonal variability and discrepancies between geographical regions will be reinforced.     

Role of renewable energy technologies in rural communities' adaptation to climate change in Nepal

The aim of this paper is to analyze the role of renewable energy technologies (RETs) such as biogas, improved cooking stoves (ICSs), micro hydro (MH) and solar power (SP) in helping rural communities in Nepal to adapt to climate change. The analysis considers the energy efficiency of different RETs as well as their socio-economic and environmental impacts. The efficient use of biomass in new technology, such as biogas and ICSs for cooking, has increased energy security and reduced the negative effects of traditional biomass usage. MH and SP systems are replacing candles and kerosene lamps, and are the most promising RET models for electricity generation in rural Nepal. The improved illumination from these technologies also produces better education, health, environments, and social harmony in rural communities. This study uses the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning model (LEAP) model to develop a plan for long-term RETs use in Nepal, and specifically focuses on household energy use in rural areas. It assesses the role of biogas and ICSs in rural communities and climate change adaptation in Nepal, along with the potential role of MH and SP technologies. According to the LEAP analysis, the planned implementation of MH for 20-year long-term will result in the reduction of 2.553 million tons of CO₂ emissions. Similarly SP, biogas, and ICSs will result in a reduction in CO₂ emissions of 5.214 million tons, 35.880 million tons, and 7.452 million tons, respectively.     

The economics of climate change and the change of climate in economics

Economics is an unavoidable decision-making tool in the field of climate policy. At the same time, traditional economics is being challenged both empirically and theoretically by scholars in different fields. Its non-neutrality in dealing with climate-related issues—which is illustrated by the controversy over the “no-regret potential”—would thus call for an opening of economics to insights from other disciplines. Within that context, we show that an evolutionary-inspired line of thought coupled with a systemic and historical perspective of technological change provides a very insightful alternative to traditional economics. More particularly, it follows from that framework that the picture of the climate challenge ahead looks very different from what traditional economic analyses would suggest. For instance, the lock-in process makes it unlikely that traditional cost-efficient measures (such as carbon taxation or tradable emission rights) will be sufficient to bring about the required radical changes in the field of energy as they fail to address structural barriers highlighted in our approach.     

The impact of the projected changes in temperature on heating and cooling requirements in buildings in Dhaka,Bangladesh

Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is a fast growing megacity with a population of 12.8 million. Due to its tropical location, dense urban morphology and higher than average density of population, buildings in Dhaka are likely to be adversely affected by the projected changes in climate, in particular by the increases in temperature. Buildings play a vital role in most aspects of our lives and their energy consumption patterns affect climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. It is important to understand the likely impact of the projected increases in temperature on cooling and heating requirements in buildings in future climates. In this research, global projections on changes in temperature are temporally downscaled using a statistically averaged baseline present-day hourly weather data to generate future weather data in three timeslices: 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Time series data for the present-day and future climates are analyzed as well as heating and cooling degree-days are calculated.     

Breaking down the silos: the integration of energy efficiency, renewable energy, demand response and climate change

This paper explores the feasibility of integrating energy efficiency program evaluation with the emerging need for the evaluation of programs from different “energy cultures” (demand response, renewable energy, and climate change). The paper reviews key features and information needs of the energy cultures and critically reviews the opportunities and challenges associated with integrating these with energy efficiency program evaluation. There is a need to integrate the different policy arenas where energy efficiency, demand response, and climate change programs are developed, and there are positive signs that this integration is starting to occur.

The role of nuclear energy in Lithuania under various post-Kyoto climate change mitigation regimes

The article aims to evaluate the potential role of nuclear energy in Lithuania under various post-Kyoto climate change mitigation regimes. Seeking to achieve this target the analysis of possible energy sector development scenarios in Lithuania was performed and CO₂ emission projections for these scenarios were developed. The analysis of post-Kyoto climate change mitigation architectures was performed and the requirements of these possible climate change mitigation regimes for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction in Lithuania were assessed. Based on these assessments the potential role of new nuclear power in Lithuania was identified under various future climate change mitigation regimes.     

The vulnerability of renewable energy to climate change in Brazil

Energy supply in Brazil relies heavily on renewable energy source. The production of energy from renewable sources, however, greatly depends on climatic conditions, which may be impacted in the future due to global climate change (GCC). This paper analyzes the vulnerabilities of renewable energy production in Brazil for the cases of hydropower generation and liquid biofuels production, given a set of long-term climate projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios. The most important result found in this study is the increasing energy vulnerability of the poorest regions of Brazil to GCC. Both biofuels production (particularly biodiesel) and electricity generation (particularly hydropower) may negatively suffer from changes in the climate of those regions. Other renewable energy sources—such as wind power generation—may also be vulnerable, raising the need for further research. However, the results found are fundamentally dependent on the climate projections which, in turn, are still highly uncertain with respect to the future evolution of greenhouse gas emissions, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and GCC. Therefore, in such long-term scenario analyses, the trends and directions derived are the ones to be emphasized rather than the precise results one arrives.     

Energy performance and thermal comfort of courtyard/atrium dwellings in the Netherlands in the light of climate change

With increased global concerns on climate change, the need for innovative spaces which can provide thermal comfort and energy efficiency is also increasing. This paper analyses the effects of transitional spaces on energy performance and indoor thermal comfort of low-rise dwellings in the Netherlands, at present and projected in 2050. For this analysis the four climate scenarios for 2050 from the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI) were used. Including a courtyard within a Dutch terraced dwelling on the one hand showed an increase in annual heating energy demand but on the other hand a decrease in the number of summer discomfort hours. An atrium integrated into a Dutch terraced dwelling reduced the heating demand but increased the number of discomfort hours in summer. Analysing the monthly energy performance, comfort hours and the climate scenarios indicated that using an open courtyard May through October and an atrium, i.e. a covered courtyard, in the rest of the year establishes an optimum balance between energy use and summer comfort for the severest climate scenario.     

Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change

In this article, we assess the potential development of energy use for future residential heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change. In a reference scenario, global energy demand for heating is projected to increase until 2030 and then stabilize. In contrast, energy demand for air conditioning is projected to increase rapidly over the whole 2000–2100 period, mostly driven by income growth. The associated CO₂ emissions for both heating and cooling increase from 0.8 Gt C in 2000 to 2.2 Gt C in 2100, i.e. about 12% of total CO₂ emissions from energy use (the strongest increase occurs in Asia). The net effect of climate change on global energy use and emissions is relatively small as decreases in heating are compensated for by increases in cooling. However, impacts on heating and cooling individually are considerable in this scenario, with heating energy demand decreased by 34% worldwide by 2100 as a result of climate change, and air-conditioning energy demand increased by 72%. At the regional scale considerable impacts can be seen, particularly in South Asia, where energy demand for residential air conditioning could increase by around 50% due to climate change, compared with the situation without climate change.     

Interactions between energy security and climate change: A focus on developing countries

We briefly consider the tensions between climate change and energy security policy imperatives, and highlight some concepts that may bring additional clarity to decision-making at the nexus of the two areas. We focus on developing countries and use the case of the Medupi supercritical coal plant in South Africa. The justification for the plant's construction stemmed from an Integrated Resource Planning process informed by South Africa's national utility. Often, as in the case of South Africa, there are tensions not easily captured in quantitative algorithms between, inter alia, a lack of access to electricity by millions of people (and associated welfare losses) and greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation. It is difficult to identify any formal processes that have prioritised climate change considerations over those of energy access. Thus, it becomes imperative to have a clear understanding of the consequences of this reality when considering power system expansion. We find that the processes often employed do not provide an entirely satisfactory precedent for future planning analyses, and the justifications do not adequately reflect the complexity of the decision space. Finally, we highlight some options by which these tools might be enhanced in areas including explicit and formal consideration of risk.     

The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change

Within 5 years, China's CO₂ emissions have nearly doubled, and China may already be the world's largest emitter of CO₂. Evidence suggests that exports could be a main cause for the rise in Chinese CO₂ emissions; however, no systematic study has analyzed this issue, especially over time. We find that in 2005, around one-third of Chinese emissions (1700 Mt CO₂) were due to production of exports, and this proportion has risen from 12% (230 Mt) in 1987 and only 21% (760 Mt) as recently as 2002. It is likely that consumption in the developed world is driving this trend. A majority of these emissions have largely escaped the scrutiny of arguments over “carbon leakage” due to the current, narrow definition of leakage. Climate policies which would make the developed world responsible for China's export emissions have both benefits and costs, and must be carefully designed to achieve political consensus and equity. Whoever is responsible for these emissions, China's rapidly expanding infrastructure and inefficient coal-powered electricity system need urgent attention.     

The economics of climate change and the theory of discounting

This paper confronts the theory of discounting with climate change economics. Standard discounting would give long-term damages a very low present value. On the other hand, low discount rates would imply more sacrifices for present generations, although future generations may be richer. And using multiple rates would lead to economic inefficiencies. The paper first shows that arguments favouring a low or zero discount rate in general are weak, even from an ethical point of view. It goes on by considering different arguments in favour of discount rates decreasing over time, and by recalling the argument that non-reproducible environmental assets should be given a value growing over time. Through the example of climate change, it finally shows that the latter argument not only implies that the costs of damages associated to climate change should not be underestimated, but also reinforce the legitimacy of using decreasing discount rates.     

American policy conflict in the greenhouse: Divergent trends in federal,regional, state,and local green energy and climate change policy

Climate change threatens significant impacts on global ecosystems and human populations. To address this challenge, industrialized nations have ratified the Kyoto Protocol and undertaken commitments to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, the primary agents linked to anthropogenic alteration of earth's climate. By contrast, the US government, led by the Bush Administration, has rejected mandatory targets for curbing emissions under the Protocol, and has instead pursued voluntary mitigation measures amid a larger push for clean coal and “next generation” nuclear technologies. These actions in total have fueled global perceptions that the US is not acting in substantial ways to address climate change. Nevertheless, action within the US is indeed moving forward, with states, cities and regional partnerships filling the federal leadership vacuum. This paper reviews the diverse policies, strategies, and cooperative frameworks that have emerged at regional, state and local levels to guide climate protection, and identifies the environmental and economic benefits linked to such programs. The paper also attempts to explain the existing federal impasse on climate policy, with attention given to how sub-national efforts may ultimately obviate national governmental inaction.     

Tackling climate change and promoting the energy revolution

Following the Paris Agreement, green and low-carbon development has entered into a new stage. China’s international responsibility to combat climate change is consistent with the inherent sustainable development needs of the country. In this paper, the reasonability of China’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) is examined and the fact that lowcarbon development can lead to modernization is demonstrated based on data analysis of energy economics from developed countries. Considering the fact that such an energy revolution forms the basis for China’s low-carbon transition, a roadmap of the China’s energy utilization is presented. Based on research results from the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the three historical stages of China’s energy structure reform are analyzed. Promoting a low-carbon transition through an energy revolution is a long-term and arduous process that requires a genuine transformation of development outlook and patterns. By empirically analyzing situations at home and abroad, a conclusion is made that economic development and a lowcarbon transition can be achieved simultaneously; specifically, low-carbon development fosters new points of economic growth and gives rise to different development paths.     

能源与气候变化议题下政策和经济研究的热点识别

以文献信息共现分析的应用软件Bibexcel为主要研究工具,对ISI Web of Knowledge数据库Web ofScience板块中1990～2010年能源与气候变化议题下,政策和经济研究相关主要期刊上发表的论文进行了数据分析,构建了该研究领域的共被引关系矩阵,并通过聚类分析,初步识别了领域内的研究热点。按照聚类内研究作者数目从低到高排序为应用于能源与气候变化研究的经济学或统计学模型理论、排污权分配和交易、政策经济性评估、行业能效和排放、碳交易机制及碳税。     

Reducing conflicts between climate policy and energy policy in the US: The important role of the states

The absence of US national action on global climate change policy has prompted initiatives by the US Congress, cities, states, and regions toward what is likely to become a long-term, collaborative effort to harmonize national energy and climate policies. This upward evolution in the face of a reluctant administration is historically consistent with the development of national legislation on other environmental and social issues in the US. At the heart of this movement is the need to resolve conflicts between high-intensity use of low-cost fossil energy supplies, and the dominating impact of carbon dioxide emissions on global climate change. US states are among the largest carbon dioxide emitters in the world and play a critical role in supplying and transforming energy, as well as consuming it, for economic advantage. State governments are also likely to have to shoulder some of the cost of potentially extensive climate damages and bear the brunt of the cost of implementing future federal mandates. As a result, many are taking proactive stances on the development of climate mitigation policy to prepare for, accelerate, and/or guide national policy. As US states show leadership on addressing greenhouse gas emissions, they also play an important role in forging policies and measures that reduce economic conflict between energy and climate goals. A number have launched or completed greenhouse gas mitigation plans and other major policies in the past few years that address these conflicts through: (1) finding ways to reduce mitigation costs, including the use of incentive-based policy instruments; (2) promoting an open and democratic policy process that includes major stakeholders; (3) promoting equity across socioeconomic groups, regions, and generations; and (4) promoting interregional cooperation. The results are promising and suggest that the state arena for climate and energy policy is evolving quickly and constructively toward alternatives that reduce conflict. Regional efforts are also unfolding, along with greater congressional attention to the lessons learned and commitments made by sub-federal actions. In the next few years many national energy and climate conflicts are likely to be tested and addressed by states. Among these, Pennsylvania is likely to be an important player due to its high profile of energy production and potential for leadership.