Organization of the current U.S. biopower industry: A template for future bioenergy industries

The development of biomass based industries face many challenges. Technological and environmental questions are paramount. However, the organization of developing biomass based industries could be a key non-technical barrier. Given that industrial organization is not the focus of many research agendas, this article attempts to fill the void.Biomass sources could be a low cost feedstock for energy production such as cellulosic ethanol. This potential low cost hinges on effective and efficient methods of exchange. One way to address the need to understand the organization of future biomass based industries is to examine current related industries such as the United States biopower industry.This article first examines the broad industrial structure of the current biopower industry by briefly discussing inputs, technology, function and production trends. Then the discussion is narrowed to focus on the type of organizational form used to procure or transfer ownership of biomass materials in the current U.S. biopower industry. Based on survey evidence the current biopower industry is found to be highly vertically integrated with little use of spot markets. This result is found to be consistent across the type of biomass fuel used.     

Economic analysis of alternative logistics systems for Tennessee-produced switchgrass to penetrate energy markets

Growing biomass crops for energy production on low productivity lands not used for food production has been suggested as an alternative to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from transportation fuel. Switchgrass is considered a potential feedstock in various states, including Tennessee, given its high biomass content in a wide range of environments. However, its low density relative to energy value and resulting high logistics costs impede the profitability of switchgrass-based bioenergy. The objective of this study is to determine the optimal logistics configuration for a collection/distribution hub to market Tennessee-produced switchgrass for bioenergy production. A mathematical programming model integrated with a geographic information system is used to maximize the net present value of profit from a hub that serves switchgrass producers and bioenergy markets. Six logistics configurations delivering switchgrass to local or international bioenergy markets are evaluated. The results highlight the economic challenges of penetrating energy markets for a switchgrass collection/distribution hub – only one logistics configuration that targets the local market is profitable. However, serving local and international markets becomes more feasible as investment risk declines. The results imply that a clear direction for national bioenergy policy is crucial to developing a biomass feedstock for the U.S. bioenergy industry.     

An outlook for sustainable forest bioenergy production in the Lake States

The Lake States region of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan offers significant potential for bioenergy production. We examine the sustainability of regional forest biomass use in the context of existing thermal heating, electricity, and biofuels production, projected resource needs over the next decade including existing forest product market demand, and impacts on price and feasibility. Assuming $36 per dry tonne at roadside, 4.1 million dry tonnes of forest biomass could be available region-wide. However, less is likely available due to localized environmental and forest cover type constraints, and landowner willingness to harvest timber. Total projected demand of 5.7 million dry tonnes, based on current and announced industry capacity, exceeds estimates of biomass availability, which suggests that anticipated growth in the forest-based bioeconomy may be constrained. Attaining projected demand will likely require a combination of higher cost feedstocks, integration of energy and non-energy uses, and careful management to meet environmental constraints. State distinctions in biomass harvest guidelines and the propensity for third-party forest certification will be critical in providing environmental safeguards. The cumulative effect of policy initiatives on biomass competition are discussed in the context of an emerging Lake States bioeconomy.     

Modelling the impacts of bioenergy markets on the forest industry in the southern United States

The main objective of this article was to analyse the impacts of emerging bioenergy markets on traditional forest product sector markets in the USA. An econometric model was developed to obtain the equilibrium estimates for the bioenergy and traditional forest markets. The results from the econometric model, using data-set for the state of Florida, suggested that biomass for bioenergy and pulpwood and biomass for bioenergy and sawtimber act as substitutes while sawtimber and pulpwood act as complements to each other. A price subsidy policy scenario was considered to simulate a 30% increase in the demand for biomass for bioenergy. The simulation results suggested that inclusion of this policy scenario might generate additional benefits to forest landowners and bioenergy sector, while sawmill and pulpmill sectors might face adverse financial impacts.     

Waste and residue availability for advanced biofuel production in EU Member States

The EU is adopting policy measures to promote the use of advanced biofuels for transport made from sustainable sources including wastes and residues. As Member States prepare to implement these policy changes, they will need to understand if they have sufficient resource to meet an advanced biofuel target. This study assesses the availability of agricultural residues, forestry residues, and biogenic wastes that could potentially be used for advanced biofuel production in EU Member States at the present and projected to 2020 and 2030. This analysis incorporates specific information on agricultural, forestry, and waste production, management practices, and environmental risks in each Member State in order to model the amounts of residues needed to preserve soil quality and that are utilized in other industries; we exclude these quantities in order to determine the sustainable biomass potential that can be achieved without significant adverse impacts on the environment or biomass markets. We find that most EU Member States are likely to have more than enough sustainably available feedstock to meet the advanced biofuel requirement, and a majority may have more than 10 times the necessary amount. While this study does not assess economic viability of advanced biofuel production, from a resource perspective, the target appears to be achievable in most Member States. Some countries, including Austria, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, and Slovenia, may need to import either feedstock or advanced biofuel from neighboring countries to meet the target.     

Mapping woody-biomass supply costs using forest inventory and competing industry data

The goals of energy independence and sustainability have motivated many countries to consider biomass-based energy sources. The United States has substantial and increasing forest resources that could be used to produce both electricity and liquid fuel. However, these forest resources are highly heterogeneous in terms of the wood’s properties, the logging cost, the spatial distribution, and the value to other industries. These factors make predicting costs and selecting plant locations particularly challenging. When dealing with forest biomass, feedstock cost and location have frequently been highly simplified in previous studies. This paper presents a methodology for combining highly resolved forest inventory and price data with records of competing industries to develop detailed maps of feedstock availability. The feedstock sourcing strategy of the proposed bioenergy plants is modeled by a cost-minimizing linear program, as is the feedstock selection of the competing mills. A case study is performed on the southeast United States.     

Assessing the impact of US ethanol on fossil fuel markets: A structural VAR approach

Despite the growing importance of biofuels, the effect of biofuels on fossil fuel markets is not fully understood. We develop a joint structural Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model of the global crude oil, US gasoline, and US ethanol markets to examine whether the US ethanol market has had any impact on global oil markets. The structural VAR approach provides a unique method for decomposing price and quantity data into demand and supply shocks, allowing us to estimate the distinct dynamic effects of ethanol demand and supply shocks on the real prices of crude oil and US gasoline. Ethanol demand in the US is driven mainly by government support in the form of tax credits and blending mandates. Shocks to ethanol demand therefore reflect changes in policy more than any other factor. In contrast, ethanol supply shocks are driven by changes in feedstock prices. A principle finding is that a policy-driven ethanol demand expansion causes a statistically significant decline in real crude oil prices, while an ethanol supply expansion does not have a statistically significant impact on real oil prices. This suggests that even though US ethanol market is small, the influence of US biofuels policy on the crude oil market is pervasive. We also show that ethanol demand shocks are more important than ethanol supply shocks in explaining the fluctuation of real prices of crude oil and US gasoline.     

Economy-wide impacts of biofuels in Argentina

Argentina is one of the world's largest biodiesel producers and the largest exporter, using soybeans as feedstock. Using a computable general equilibrium model that explicitly represents the biofuel industry, this study carries out several simulations on two sets of issues: (i) international markets for biofuel and feedstock, such as an increase in prices of soybean, soybean oil, and biodiesel, and (ii) domestic policies related to biofuels, such as an introduction of biofuel mandates. Both sets of issues can have important consequences to the Argentinean economy. The simulations indicate that increases in international prices of biofuels and feedstocks would increase Argentina's gross domestic product and social welfare. Increases in international prices of ethanol and corn also can benefit Argentina, but to a lesser extent. The domestic mandates for biofuels, however, would cause small losses in economic output and social welfare because they divert part of biodiesel and feedstock from exports to lower-return domestic consumption. An increase in the export tax on either feedstock or biodiesel also would lead to a reduction in gross domestic product and social welfare, although government revenue would rise.     

Socio-economic aspects of different biofuel development pathways

There are several policy drivers for biofuels on a larger scale in the EU transport sector, including increased security of energy supply, reduced emission of greenhouse gases (GHG), and new markets for the agricultural sector. The purpose of this socio-economic cost analysis is to provide an overview of the costs of meeting EU biofuels targets, taking into account several external costs and benefits. Biofuels are generally more expensive than traditional fossil fuels, but the expected increasing value of GHG emission reductions will over time reduce the cost gap. High crude oil prices significantly improve the economic benefit of biofuels, but increased demand for biomass for energy purposes is likely to increase the price of biofuels feedstock and biofuels costs. The key question is to what extent increasing oil prices will be passed on to biofuels costs. Socio-economic least costs for biofuels production require a market with a clear pricing of GHG emissions to ensure that this factor is included in the decision-making of actors in all links of the fuel chain.     

Factors affecting nonindustrial private forest landowners' willingness to supply woody biomass for bioenergy

Bioenergy is a renewable form of potential alternative to traditional fossil fuels that has come to the forefront as a result of recent concerns over high price of fuels, national security, and climate change. Nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) landowners form the dominant forest ownership group in the southern United States. These forests often tend to have large quantities of small diameter trees. Use of logging residues and non-marketable small diameter trees for bioenergy production can create economic opportunities for NIPF landowners. The results demonstrated that landowners’ willingness to harvest woody biomass was influenced by their ownership objectives, size of the forest, structure and composition of tree species, and demographic characteristics. The model found that relatively younger landowners who owned large acres of forestland with pine plantations or mix forests had the potential to become a preferable choice for contractors, extension foresters and bioenergy industries as they were more likely to supply woody biomass for bioenergy. Findings of this study will be useful to bioenergy industries, extension foresters, nonindustrial private forest landowners and policy makers.     

Recent developments of biofuels/bioenergy sustainability certification: A global overview

The objective of this paper is to provide a review on the latest developments on the main initiatives and approaches for the sustainability certification for biofuels and/or bioenergy. A large number of national and international initiatives lately experienced rapid development in the view of the biofuels and bioenergy targets announced in the European Union, United States and other countries worldwide. The main certification initiatives are analysed in detail, including certification schemes for crops used as feedstock for biofuels, the various initiatives in the European Union, United States and globally, to cover biofuels and/or biofuels production and use. Finally, the possible way forward for biofuel certification is discussed. Certification has the potential to influence positively direct environmental and social impact of bioenergy production. Key recommendations to ensure sustainability of biofuels/bioenergy through certification include the need of an international approach and further harmonisation, combined with additional measures for global monitoring and control. The effects of biofuels/bioenergy production on indirect land use change (ILUC) is still very uncertain; addressing the unwanted ILUC requires sustainable land use planning and adequate monitoring tools such as remote sensing, regardless of the end-use of the product.     

Development of a biorefinery optimized biofuel supply curve for the Western United States

A resource assessment and biorefinery siting optimization model was developed and implemented to assess potential biofuel supply across the Western United States from agricultural, forest, urban, and energy crop biomass. Spatial information including feedstock resources, existing and potential refinery locations and a transportation network model is provided to a mixed integer-linear optimization model that determines the optimal locations, technology types and sizes of biorefineries to satisfy a maximum profit objective function applied across the biofuel supply and demand chain from site of feedstock production to the product fuel terminal. The resource basis includes preliminary considerations of crop and residue sustainability. Sensitivity analyses explore possible effects of policy and technology changes. At a target market price of 19.6 $ GJ^?1, the model predicts a feasible production level of 610–1098 PJ, enough to supply up to 15% of current regional liquid transportation fuel demand.     

Developments in international solid biofuel trade—An analysis of volumes,policies, and market factors

This paper presents and analyses international solid biofuel trade and concludes upon interactions with bioenergy policies and market factors. It shows that trade has grown from about 56 to 300 PJ between 2000 and 2010. Wood pellets grew strongest, i.e. from 8.5 to 120 PJ. Other relevant streams by 2010 included wood waste (77 PJ), fuelwood (76 PJ), wood chips (17 PJ), residues (9 PJ), and roundwood (2.4 PJ). Intra-EU trade covered two thirds of global trade by 2010. Underlying markets are highly heterogeneous; generally though trade evolved whenever supply side market factors coincided with existing/emerging demand patterns. Market factors and policies both defined trade volumes; though policy changes did not have as prominent effects on trade developments as in the liquid biofuel sector. Economic viability is the key limiting factor. Main exporting countries have low feedstock costs and already existing wood processing industries. Trade-relevant aspects are the commodity's monetary value; determined by its homogeneity, heating value, and bulk density. Consumer markets are diverse: in residential heating, demand/trade patterns have been influenced by local biofuel availability and short-term price signals, i.e. mainly price competitiveness and investment support for boilers/stoves. Commodities are mainly sourced regionally, but price differences have triggered a growing trade. The industrial segment is greatly influenced by policy frameworks but more mature (e.g. established routes). Trade is strictly linked to margins (defined mainly by policies) and combustion technologies. Uncertainties in the analysis are due to data gaps across and within databases regarding import/export declarations. To estimate bioenergy related trade, anecdotal data was indispensable. We believe datasets should be streamlined across international institutions to eventually enable reporting of global trade beyond digit-6-level. Research is needed to provide further insights into informal markets. Interrelations between trade factors are particularly relevant when mapping future trade streams under different policy/trade regime scenarios.     

Opportunities to boost bioenergy in Lithuania

Significant efforts have been made in Lithuania to enhance the utilization of bioenergy since the early 1990s. While opportunities are large and signs of development visible, bioenergy still needs technical, institutional and policy-related support for further development side by side with other industries. This paper discusses the existing bioenergy potential in Lithuanian forests, biofuels market formation in the region and possible roads to boost development. The retrofitting of heat plants, forest management and policies are reviewed as a way to identify opportunities to promote bioenergy in the country. It is shown that the interplay between national and regional forces can promote technological and managerial improvements in the forest industry while also enhancing the biomass supply and sustainability of bioenergy systems.     

Scenarios for biofuel demands,biomass production and land use – The case of Denmark

The land potential for producing biomass for bioenergy purposes has been highly debated in recent years. The present paper analyses the possibilities and consequences for land use and agricultural production of biofuel production in Denmark based on domestic wheat and rape under specific scenario conditions for the period 2010–2030. The potential is assessed for a situation where policy targets for renewable energy carriers in the transport sector is reached using biofuels, and where second generation ethanol increasingly substitutes first generation ethanol.Three scenarios are developed and evaluated: a baseline, an alternative scenario allowing continuous growth in the now dominant livestock branch and a biofuel scenario assuming that efforts to achieve self-sufficiency in biofuel displaces part of the domestic production of fodder.Results show that the biofuel demand could be met in 2020; but only if current rape oil production is used to satisfy local bio-diesel demand. It would also imply that the Danish bio-diesel export currently supplying a minor part of the German fuel market would seize. In 2030, however, only about 60 percent of the biofuel demand would be covered by self-sufficiency. If biofuels were to displace animal production to make up for this, a reduction of the pig production between 10 and 20 percent would result. Efficiency increases across production branches would allow the animal production to continue un-affected if about half of the rape oil produced for other purposes is utilized.     

我国光伏产业发展现状与对策探讨

自2011年开始,欧美光伏市场萎缩使我国光伏产业陷入困境,2012年下半年美国和欧盟对中国光伏企业展开"双反"调查更是雪上加霜。我国光伏行业的无序扩张导致过度竞争和产能过剩,致使企业利润大幅下滑。光伏产业遇到的困境其本质是传统加工出口模式的失败,问题主要表现为发展模式沿袭传统产业粗放型扩张的老路、在低端环节竞争过度、自主创新积累能力低和政府介入过度等。外部市场需求下降,国内市场又没有全面启动,使产能过剩的问题更加严重。地方政府在GDP驱动下的投资冲动是产能过剩的根本原因。我国光伏产业当前遇到的困难,既是严峻挑战,也是促进产业调整升级的契机,产能过剩是相对的,国内拥有巨大的市场潜力。国家已出台了一些政策和措施对光伏产业施以"援手",从长远发展来看光伏行业的前景仍值得期待。从短期来看,光伏企业应进行国际协调,积极应对欧美"双反";同时实行兼并整合,大力发展分布式光伏系统,加速启动国内市场。从长远来看,加强技术创新能力,加快电力体制改革,补贴方式从补贴装机改为补贴发电量、从补贴发电端改为补贴用户端,加快建设有利于我国新能源产业健康发展的外部环境,才是解决光伏等新能源产业困境的根本之道。     

Uncertainty in biomass supply estimates: Lessons from a Yakama Nation case study

The increasing demand for bioenergy in the United States necessitates detailed case studies of cost and supply to assess its feasibility. We have developed supply curves based on six feedstocks in five counties surrounding the Yakama Nation in central Washington using spatially explicit estimates of supply and transportation cost. The supply curves were used to examine a base case supply for a bioenergy plant, to analyze the effects of land ownership, and examine the impacts of uncertainty in parameters used to determine cost and supply. The results show that existing industries produce the cheapest supply of feedstock as a byproduct of their operations, while supplies harvested specifically for bioenergy are considerably more expensive. Fragmented land ownerships lead to the necessity of cooperation between owners and highlight the importance of a strong anchor supply close to the plant. Lastly, uncertainty in supply and cost parameters leads to larger ranges in available biomass, leading to reluctant investment in large plants.     

A parametric analysis of future ethanol use in the light-duty transportation sector: Can the US meet its Renewable Fuel Standard goals without an enforcement mechanism?

The modified Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) prescribes a volume of biofuels to be used in the United States transportation sector each year through 2022. As the dominant component of the transportation sector, we consider the feasibility of the light-duty vehicle (LDV) parc to provide enough demand for biofuels to satisfy RFS2. Sensitivity studies show that the fuel price differential between gasoline and ethanol blendstocks, such as E85, is the principal factor in LDV biofuel consumption. The numbers of flex fuel vehicles and biofuel refueling stations will grow given a favorable price differential. However, unless the feedstock price differential becomes extreme (biomass prices below $100 per dry ton and oil prices above $215 per barrel), which deviates from historical price trends, LDV parc biofuel consumption will fall short of the RFS2 mandate without an enforcement mechanism. Additionally, such commodity prices might increase biofuel consumption in the short-term, but discourage use of biofuels in the long-term as other technologies that do not rely on any gasoline blendstock may be preferable. Finally, the RFS2 program goals of reducing fossil fuel consumption and transportation greenhouse gas emissions could be achieved through other pathways, such as notable improvements in conventional vehicle efficiency.     

The feasibility,costs, and environmental implications of large-scale biomass energy

What are the feasibility, costs, and environmental implications of large-scale bioenegry? We investigate this question by developing a detailed representation of bioenergy in a global economy-wide model. We develop a scenario with a global carbon dioxide price, applied to all anthropogenic emissions except those from land use change, that rises from $25 per metric ton in 2015 to $99 in 2050. This creates market conditions favorable to biomass energy, resulting in global non-traditional bioenergy production of ~ 150 exajoules (EJ) in 2050. By comparison, in 2010, global energy production was primarily from coal (138 EJ), oil (171 EJ), and gas (106 EJ). With this policy, 2050 emissions are 42% less in our Base Policy case than our Reference case, although extending the scope of the carbon price to include emissions from land use change would reduce 2050 emissions by 52% relative to the same baseline. Our results from various policy scenarios show that lignocellulosic (LC) ethanol may become the major form of bioenergy, if its production costs fall by amounts predicted in a recent survey and ethanol blending constraints disappear by 2030; however, if its costs remain higher than expected or the ethanol blend wall continues to bind, bioelectricity and bioheat may prevail. Higher LC ethanol costs may also result in the expanded production of first-generation biofuels (ethanol from sugarcane and corn) so that they remain in the fuel mix through 2050. Deforestation occurs if emissions from land use change are not priced, although the availability of biomass residues and improvements in crop yields and conversion efficiencies mitigate pressure on land markets. As regions are linked via international agricultural markets, irrespective of the location of bioenergy production, natural forest decreases are largest in regions with the lowest barriers to deforestation. In 2050, the combination of carbon price and bioenergy production increases food prices by 3.2%–5.2%, with bioenergy accounting for 1.3%–3.5%.     

Modeling price-driven interactions between wood bioenergy and global wood product markets

Higher and more volatile liquid fossil fuel prices have had profound effects on international energy and wood product markets. Understanding this evolving economic and technological landscape requires economic models that capture the interconnections between energy markets and wood product markets, and can be used to forecast the impact of alternative policy and market incentives. The need for such an analytic framework is underscored by the consensus that efficiently produced wood bioenergy could provide many climate benefits compared to fossil-fuel intensive substitutes.A model is presented for analysis of how increased use of wood bioenergy, in the forms of fuelwood, cellulosic ethanol from woody biomass, and electricity produced from wood, might interact with global markets for wood products; liquid, solid, and gaseous fuels; and electricity produced from other sources. It links U.S. energy markets with wood product markets and endogenizes the demand for wood bioenergy with price-driven market clearing mechanisms. Projections made with the model point to a substantial increase in demand for woody cellulosic ethanol in the U.S. for the next 30 years if oil prices remain high.