Building a low carbon society

This paper presents the strategy of the European Union in the field of energy and climate change. At the heart of the package are three commitments to be met by 2020: to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20%, to ensure that 20% of final energy consumption is met with renewable sources, and to raise energy efficiency by 20%. This strategy is based on the scientific consensus drawn by the International Panel for Climate Change, and implements the EU political strategy to limit the anthropogenic temperature rise to no more than 2 °C. A Directive for the geological storage of CO₂ is another integral part of the package. This should enable the development and subsequent deployment of zero emission power plants. From a research and technology perspective, the Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan) lists several energy technologies which will be required to reconcile economic growth and a vision of a decarbonised society. The EU climate and energy package and the SET-Plan are part of the solution both to the climate crisis and to the current economic and financial crisis. They represent a green “new deal” which will enhance the competitiveness of EU industry in an increasingly carbon-constrained world.     

Opportunities for carbon emissions control in Poland

Poland is an important case study in understanding the role of international cooperation in reducing the risk of global climate change. Currently Poland is experiencing vast changes in its economic structure and energy and environmental policies. This transition has the potential to translate into substantial energy savings and CO₂ emissions reductions. The impact of Poland's current efforts will depend largely on the successful implementation of a wide range of already enacted energy laws and regulations, the effective use of incentives and disincentives to decrease energy consumption and the extent to which the international community aids Poland in its quest for improved energy efficiency and environmental protection.     

Cost optimal analysis of heat pump technology adoption in residential reference buildings

In European Union (EU) buildings consume approximately the 40% of total primary energy. Heat pump (HP) systems have proven to be an efficient and economically viable alternative to conventional systems to provide heating and cooling services in buildings. An effective penetration of this technology in the built environment is critical to achieve the ambitious goals set by the recent EU Directives on energy efficiency and energy performance of buildings. Although this technology is very versatile, its optimal design and management are related to specific climate, operational and economic conditions. The research presented aims to evaluate the performance of technical solutions for heating and cooling in residential buildings, using a “reference building” methodology. The comparison involves performance indicators such as primary energy consumption, CO₂ emission and net present cost.The potential improvements with respect to conventional baseline solutions are assessed and the performance gap between air-source and water-source HP systems is shown referring to realistic operational and climate conditions within the Italian territory. The research suggests the possibility of reducing this performance gap by concentrating future research effort on design and control optimization.     

Decomposition analysis of CO2 emission in long-term climate stabilization scenarios

To achieve the stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere, the international community will need to intensify its long-term efforts. Many EU countries have released national long-term scenarios toward 2050, and their ambitious targets for CO₂ emission reduction are aiming at a decrease of more than 50% of today's emission. In April 2004, Japan began a research project on its long-term climate policy. This paper discusses the long-term scenarios in other countries and the medium-term scenarios in Japan to support the development of a Japan's long-term climate stabilization scenario. In this study, CO₂ emission is decomposed with an extended Kaya identity (indexes: CO₂ capture and storage, carbon intensity, energy efficiency, energy intensity, economic activity) and a Reduction Balance Table is developed.     

Energy consumption and economic growth in the light of meeting the targets of energy policy in the EU: The bootstrap panel Granger causality approach

The aim of the paper is to assess linkages between energy consumption and economic growth in the light of compliance with the EU energy policy targets stated in the climate and energy package for 2020 in the European Union member states in the period 1993–2011. The study is divided into two main stages. During the first one, using cluster analysis methods, four groups of countries which met three energy policy targets stated in the package at similar levels were identified. During the second stage, the bootstrap Granger panel causality approach proposed by Kònya (2006) was used to verify the hypothesis of causality between energy consumption and economic growth in the countries from four groups created in the previous step. The global financial crisis was also taken into account. The results obtained reveal that the level of compliance with energy policy targets influences linkages between energy consumption and economic growth. The results indicate causal relations in the group of countries with the greatest reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, the highest reduction of energy intensity and the highest share of renewable energy consumption in total energy consumption. In the remaining groups the results mostly confirm the neutrality hypothesis.     

Situation and measures of China’s CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emission mitigation after the Paris Agreement

Global response to climate change has entered the phase of full implementation of the Paris Agreement. To control the global temperature rise below 2°C, all countries must make more efforts to reduce emission. China has combined its goal of emission reduction for combating climate change with its domestic sustainable development strategy to promote energy revolution and the transition of economic development to low-carbon patterns. Through reinforcing the commitment and action before 2020, the CO₂ intensity of GDP can decrease by more than 50% by 2020 compared with that of 2005, and the external commitment target of a 40%–45% decrease can be over fulfilled. Currently, under the new economic normal, China further strengthens the policy measure, vigorously saves energy, enhances energy use efficiency and the economic output benefit, and simultaneously develops new and renewable energy and accelerates energy structural decarbonization, so that the annual decrease rate of the CO₂ intensity of GDP keeps a high level of more than 4% and remains increasing. Thus, the decrease rate of the CO₂ intensity of GDP will exceed the GDP growth rate, and then CO₂ emission will peak around 2030. This will promote the fundamental turning of economic development mode, and lay a foundation for the establishment of a sustainable energy system with near-zero emissions and with new and renewable energy as the main body in the second half of this century. China implements the concept of green low-carbon development and accelerates the low carbon transition of energy and economy to achieve win-win results in economic growth and CO₂ emission mitigation, and these policies and actions will also provide experiences for many other developing countries. On the other hand, China will continue to play a positive and constructive leading role in the implementation of the Paris Agreement internationally, and promote the construction of new mechanisms of win-win cooperation, fairness and justice and common development for global climate governance. Moreover, China will make an effort to build a community of common destiny for mankind, promote pragmatic cooperation among countries, especially among developing countries, and take combating climate change as a new development opportunity for jointly moving toward climate-friendly low-carbon economic development path.     

Supply of renewable energy sources and the cost of EU climate policy

What are the excess costs of a separate 20% target for renewable energy as a part of the EU climate policy for 2020? We answer this question using a computable general equilibrium model, WorldScan, which has been extended with a bottom-up module of the electricity sector. The model set-up makes it possible to base the calibration directly on available estimates of costs and capacity potentials for renewable energy sources. In our base case simulation, the costs of EU climate policy with the renewables target are 6% higher than those of a policy without this target. The uncertainty in this estimate is considerable, however, and depends on our assumptions about the availability of low-cost renewable energy: the initial cost level, the steepness of the supply curves and share of renewable energy in the baseline. Within the range we explore, the excess costs vary from zero (when the target is not a binding constraint) to 32% (when the cost progression and the initial cost disadvantage for renewable energy are high and its initial share is low).     

Techno-economic evaluation of medium scale power to hydrogen to combined heat and power generation systems

The European Hydrogen Strategy and the new « Fit for 55 » package indicate the urgent need for the alignment of policy with the European Green Deal and European Union (EU) climate law for the decarbonization of the energy system and the use of hydrogen towards 2030 and 2050. The increasing carbon prices in EU Emission Trading System (ETS) as well as the lack of dispatchable thermal power generation as part of the Coal exit are expected to enhance the role of Combined Heat and Power (CHP) in the future energy system. In the present work, the use of renewable hydrogen for the decarbonization of CHP plants is investigated for various fossil fuel substitution ratios and the impact of the overall efficiency, the reduction of direct emissions and the carbon footprint of heat and power generation are reported. The analysis provides insights on efficient and decarbonized cogeneration linking the power with the heat sector via renewable hydrogen production and use. The levelized cost of hydrogen production as well as the levelized cost of electricity in the power to hydrogen to combined heat and power system are analyzed for various natural gas substitution scenarios as well as current and future projections of EU ETS carbon prices.     

Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change

Abatement cost is the main concern for climate change mitigation and the key factor for mitigation cost is technological change. This study established an integrated economic, energy, environmental, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model representing endogenous technological change for China's climate change policy analysis. This study analyzed and compared the economic impact of different approaches to mitigation commitments as well as the potential role of technological change in the formulation of mitigation targets and commitments, taking into account China's climate policy-making needs based on the current international climate negotiation process. The results show that, absolute emission limits similar to the Kyoto Protocol will seriously impede the future economic development of China, while the impact of an 80% reduction in carbon intensity, forecast for 2050 based on the 2005 level, is relatively small. Technological change can promote economic growth, improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon intensity per unit of output through the substitution of production factors. Consequently it can reduce marginal abatement cost and related GDP loss by mitigation. At the same time it can increase mitigation potentials and extend the emission reduction amount, showing that consideration of the impact of technological change when deciding the emission reduction targets is necessary.     

Electricity network planning targeting Low-Carbon energy transition

Electricity sector, as one of the major emission sources of carbon dioxide (CO₂), is responsible for reducing carbon emissions and is a major player that addresses global climate change. In the efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change over the coming decades, decarbonizing power systems is critical. To achieve this goal, power generation systems need a transition from a high reliance on coal-fired power stations to a low-carbon energy mix. This paper proposes a transition planning method that includes the retirement of coal-fired generators and the integration of large-scale renewable power plants. Hence, transmission systems need to be upgraded simultaneously with the changing of generation mix to ensure system reliability. This paper also considers carbon emission cost and introduces and compares two models, which include carbon trading and carbon tax. Furthermore, issues related to the ramping of renewable power systems that are caused by the large penetration of renewable power generators are taken into account by adding the cost related to the sudden change of renewable generation (ramping cost) in the objective function. The proposed model is demonstrated on a modified IEEE 24-bus RTS system.     

First‐mover advantages of the European Union's climate change mitigation strategy

This paper assesses the costs and benefits for the European Union (EU) as a first mover in climate change mitigation. Scenarios of EU and global climate action to 2050 are quantified using the GEME3‐RD model, a global multi‐sectoral computable general equilibrium model with endogenous technology progress and detailed representation of the clean energy technologies. The model includes two‐factor learning curves (stock and research and development funding) for clean energy technologies, such as electric vehicles, carbon capture and storage, and renewable and efficient appliances. Funding of research and development is endogenously derived as a production factor enabling productivity improvement. The scenarios compare stylised climate strategies, which are asymmetric by world region and have different emission reduction profiles over time. Assuming that strong climate mitigation action will be undertaken only after 2030, the scenarios compare two main strategies for the EU: pursuing strong emission reduction unilaterally until 2030 versus deferring action for the period after 2030. Asymmetric climate action by region enables asymmetric innovation and manufacturing of clean energy technologies. The macroeconomic assessment of the climate action strategies does not only depend on costs of clean technologies but also on induced technology progress implying asymmetric effects on manufacturing and trade by region, taking into account spillovers. The model‐based projections show clear advantages for the EU as a first mover in climate change mitigation compared with a delaying of climate action until 2030. Delayed climate action until 2030 implies higher gross domestic product losses for the EU compared with unilateral action until 2030. The model finds benefits of early action by the EU driven by activity and progress related to clean energy technologies as the EU can achieve competitive advantages over other world regions pursuing climate action later. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatially uneven development and low carbon transitions: Insights from urban and regional planning

The ageing of existing energy system infrastructure, the threat of climate change and uncertainty in the movement of energy prices have resulted in a widespread agreement on the need for a transition to a low carbon energy system. Yet the nature of this transition (i.e. what, when, how and where) and its socio-economic outcomes at different scales are not well understood. The interdependence of the energy sector and economic growth has been mostly studied at the national level (via some general equilibrium or econometric models) whilst sub-national studies at community or urban levels mostly focus on the governance of transitions. Hence, we suggest that a regional perspective to energy policy and research promises to integrate these two approaches by providing a more robust and comprehensive understanding of the implications of low carbon transitions, as well as contributing to the development of more effective policies. By building on recent ideas on geographical aspects of energy transitions, this article offers insights on the changing relationship between the spatial organisation of economic activities and energy systems, and identifies tools and methods from urban and regional planning to help with the delivery of efficient and equitable policy outcomes.     

欧盟能源转型的路径及对我国的启示

欧盟在发展低碳经济的背景下通过制定具体且严格的温室气体减排和可再生能源发展目标,大力推广各种低碳能源技术的应用,积极倡导低碳化的能源转型。欧盟能源转型的理念和行动已成为各国制定能源政策的重要参考,并引领了当前全球能源转型的主流发展方向。本文在对欧盟各国能源转型战略进行梳理的基础上,归纳了各国能源转型的核心及关键措施,分析了欧盟低碳能源发展迅速的主要原因,并总结了欧盟能源转型对我国推进能源生产和消费革命的启示。     

Economic impact assessment of Turkey's post-Kyoto vision on emission trading

For the post-Kyoto period, Turkey strongly emphasizes the establishment of national emission trading system by 2015 and its integration with the EU ETS along its accession process to the EU. In this paper, we study the mechanisms of adjustment and economic welfare consequences of various ETS regimes that Turkey considers to apply by 2020, i.e. regional ETS and international trading within the EU ETS. We conduct our analysis under the current EU 20–20–20 emission target, 20%, and also under its revised version, 30%. We find that Turkey has economic gains from linking with the EU ETS under the 20% cap, in comparison to the domestic ETSs. Despite the EU's welfare loss under linkage in comparison to the case where Turkey has domestic abatement efforts, it still prefers linking as it increases economic well being compared to the case where Turkey does not abate. Under 30% cutback, Turkey has critical output loss under linkage due to high abatement burden on the EU, while the EU is better off as it passes some of its abatement burden to Turkey. Therefore, emission quotas and their allocation across the ETS and non ETS sectors become highly critical in distributing the overall economic gains from bilateral trading.     

A model-based assessment of the impact of revitalised R&D investments on the European power sector

This paper presents an analysis of the effect of enhanced research and development (R&D) efforts for a set of low-carbon power technologies on the development of the European energy sector. It applies a methodology using the concept of Two-Factor-Learning, which quantitatively links trends in technology cost to both accumulated R&D investments and production volumes. The impacts of the latter on the energy sector are then simulated in a consistent manner with the POLES global energy model. On this basis, it compares the total system costs of an assumed increase in worldwide R&D investments that for the EU are in line with proposals made in its European Strategic Energy Technology Plan to a baseline development. It finds that an increase in research efforts at a global level will contribute to reducing the costs of currently less mature low-carbon technologies, thus accelerating their market entry. When comparing two scenarios that both fulfil the EU's 2020 energy and climate objectives and differing only in their R&D investment levels, the reduced technology costs allow EU support policies for renewables and carbon values to be reduced, and the cumulative (discounted) benefit of the accelerated research efforts is positive in the long term.     

Impact of the regulatory framework for transmission investments on the cost of renewable energy in the EU

Under the current regulatory frame in the EU, transmission planning is done at the national level to maximize national welfare, rather than European welfare. In this paper, we develop a competitive equilibrium model that calculates the impact of this imperfect regulatory framework on the cost of renewable energy. We apply the model to a power system with two interconnected zones, and find that the impact is case specific, but significant. We also find that the negative impact of national transmission planning on the cost of renewable energy is more significant in a state of the world in which Member States trade renewable energy, but that this negative effect is much smaller than the positive effect of renewable energy trade between Member States. We conclude that the imperfect regulatory framework for transmission investment is a significant cost for renewable energy in the EU, but that it should not stop Member States from trading renewable energy.     

Wood fuel trade in European Union

Wood fuels are the most important alternatives of fossil fuel which is one of the reasons of the climate changes in the world and of global warming. Wood fuels, which have an important role in the cause of both providing energy requirement of production units and heating for household and healing energy deficit, disperse very less CO₂ than fossil fuels to atmosphere. Bio-fuels are used to provide energy requirement among EU countries like using in lots of developed countries. Resources having by lots developed countries and EU countries are not at enough level for bio-fuels. For this reason, trade of bio-fuels has been become in an important situation in recent years. In this study, import and export levels of bio-fuels of EU countries and Turkey, which is a candidate for union, were investigated between 2003 and 2006. The date is obtained from European Forest Institute (EFI) forest products trade flow database. As a result of the study, while rises were determined in years, it is determined that the most important exporters are Germany, Italy, Latvia and Poland and the most important importers are Germany, Italy, Belgium and UK. It is seen that Turkey has a low trade level in selected product groups.     

Pathways to Mexico’s climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis

Mexico’s climate policy sets ambitious national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets—30% versus a business-as-usual baseline by 2020, 50% versus 2000 by 2050. However, these goals are at odds with recent energy and emission trends in the country. Both energy use and GHG emissions in Mexico have grown substantially over the last two decades. We investigate how Mexico might reverse current trends and reach its mitigation targets by exploring results from energy system and economic models involved in the CLIMACAP-LAMP project. To meet Mexico’s emission reduction targets, all modeling groups agree that decarbonization of electricity is needed, along with changes in the transport sector, either to more efficient vehicles or a combination of more efficient vehicles and lower carbon fuels. These measures reduce GHG emissions as well as emissions of other air pollutants. The models find different energy supply pathways, with some solutions based on renewable energy and others relying on biomass or fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. The economy-wide costs of deep mitigation could range from 2% to 4% of GDP in 2030, and from 7% to 15% of GDP in 2050. Our results suggest that Mexico has some flexibility in designing deep mitigation strategies, and that technological options could allow Mexico to achieve its emission reduction targets, albeit at a cost to the country.     

Applying ex-post index decomposition analysis to primary energy consumption for evaluating progress towards European energy efficiency targets

Monitoring the progress of the European Union and its Member States towards the EU’s energy efficiency target is a crucial part of the mandatory process as defined in the Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU. In this paper, we conduct index decomposition analyses to show the effects of both policies and autonomous developments driving the changes of primary energy consumption for the European Union (EU28) and its Member States for the time period of 2000 to 2014, with a comparative analysis of Germany and Poland. These analyses are based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index methodology and primarily on data compiled by Eurostat. They are carried out on two levels, i.e. on the level of total primary energy consumption as well as on the level of primary energy consumption related to electricity generation. The first level examines the influences of changes in final energy consumption and changes within the energy conversion sector on primary energy consumption. With the second level, we provide insights into the effects of changes in electricity consumption and production. According to our first-level analysis, the consumption of primary energy in the EU28 is primarily influenced by an increased share of electrical energy and the counteracting effect of rising efficiency in electricity generation, induced by an increasing share of renewable energies. Furthermore, the reduction of final energy consumption had a significant decreasing influence on primary energy consumption in the European Union. The second level of our analysis regarding electricity generation shows that the increasing effect on primary energy consumption due to the rising consumption of electricity was mainly compensated by substituting nuclear and thermal power plants by renewable energy technologies.     

The potential role of hydrogen energy in India and Western Europe

We used the TIMER energy model to explore the potential role of hydrogen in the energy systems of India and Western Europe, looking at the impacts on its main incentives: climate policy, energy security and urban air pollution. We found that hydrogen will not play a major role in both regions without considerable cost reductions, mainly in fuel cell technology. Also, energy taxation policy is essential for hydrogen penetration and India's lower energy taxes limit India's capacity to favour hydrogen. Once available to the (European) energy system, hydrogen can decrease the cost of CO₂ emission reduction by increasing the potential for carbon capture technology. However, climate policy alone is insufficient to speed up the transition. Hydrogen diversifies energy imports; especially for Europe it decreases oil imports, while increasing imports of coal and natural gas. For India, it provides an opportunity to decrease oil imports and use indigenous coal resources in the transport sector. Hydrogen improves urban air quality by shifting emissions from urban transport to hydrogen production facilities. However, for total net emissions we found a sensitive trade-off between lower emissions at end-use (in transport) and higher emissions from hydrogen production, depending on local policy for hydrogen production facilities.