后核危机时代日本新能源格局的转变及启示

日本是全球重要的能源消耗大国和电力能源生产国,凭借技术和资金的优势,日本在新能源开发和利用方面已处于世界领先地位,因此后核危机时代日本的新能源发展趋势必将对全球的能源战略产生深远的影响。通过系统性地阐述日本面临的发展机遇和挑战,剖析日本能源战略的转变,解读后核危机时代日本能源战略对中国能源格局和新能源发展战略产生的影响,思考我国在后核危机时代新能源发展中面临的问题和机遇,明确我国新能源产业的发展方向,为我国把握后核危机时代的新能源发展机遇提出思考性意见。     

Effect of the Fukushima nuclear disaster on global public acceptance of nuclear energy

The Fukushima nuclear disaster has significantly changed public attitudes toward nuclear energy. It is important to understand how this change has occurred in different countries before the global community revises existing nuclear policies. This study examines the effect of the Fukushima disaster on public acceptance of nuclear energy in 42 countries. We find that the operational experience of nuclear power generation which has significantly affected positive public opinion about nuclear energy became considerably negative after the disaster, suggesting fundamental changes in public acceptance regardless of the level of acceptance before the disaster. In addition, contrary to our expectation, the proportion of nuclear power generation is positively and significantly related to public acceptance of nuclear energy after the Fukushima accident and government pressure on media content led to a greater decrease in the level of public acceptance after the accident. Nuclear energy policymakers should consider the varied factors affecting public acceptance of nuclear energy in each country depending on its historical, environmental, and geographical circumstances before they revise nuclear policy in response to the Fukushima accident.     

Soviet energy Current problems and future options

The connection between Soviet oil and energy resources, their efficient and timely utilization, and politico-military opportunities in the Persian Gulf region offer an inescapable link for analysis. Worsening trends in economic growth, factor productivity, social unrest, and energy production/distribution offset optimistic trends in Soviet military procurement and deployment. A conjunction of geologic, geographic, and systemic factors all point to a mid-1980s energy imbalance which in turn will pose hard questions for the Moscow leadership.     

The cost of nuclear electricity: France after Fukushima

The Fukushima disaster has lead the French government to release novel cost information relative to its nuclear electricity program allowing us to compute a levelized cost. We identify a modest escalation of capital cost and a larger than expected operational cost. Under the best scenario, the cost of French nuclear power over the last four decades is $59€/\mathrm{MWh}$ (at 2010 prices) while in the worst case it is $83€/\mathrm{MWh}$. On the basis of these findings, we estimate the future cost of nuclear power in France to be at least $76€/\mathrm{MWh}$ and possibly $117€/\mathrm{MWh}$. A comparison with the US confirms that French nuclear electricity nevertheless remains cheaper. Comparisons with coal, natural gas and wind power are carried out to find the advantage of these.     

Exploring future energy options: An economic analysis

This paper examines the economic benefits and optimal timing of new sources of electric energy. The focus is on those technologies that offer the promise of a nearly inexhaustible electric energy supply: the fast breeder reactor, solar electric and fusion. Benefits are calculated under varying assumptions regarding capital costs, development lead times, and resource availability. The interdependence between benefits from new technologies is also explored.     

The cross-section of returns,benchmark model parameters,and idiosyncratic volatility of nuclear energy firms after Fukushima Daiichi

This study analyzes how the stock market returns, the factor loadings from the Carhart (1997) 4-factor model, and the idiosyncratic volatility of shares in energy firms have been affected by the Fukushima nuclear accident. Unlike existing studies, which provide evidence of a wealth transfer from nuclear to renewable energy firms for specific countries, we use an international sample and investigate whether changes in the regulatory environment and the firm-specific commitment to nuclear and renewable energies correlate with the capital market's reactions to the Fukushima Daiichi accident. Our findings suggest that the more a firm relies on nuclear power, the more its share price declined after the accident. A commitment to renewable energies does not prevent declines in share prices but significantly helps to reduce the increase in market beta that is associated with this event. Nuclear energy firms domiciled in countries with a higher number of regulatory interventions that were triggered by the catastrophe have lower abnormal returns than those that are domiciled elsewhere. However, as a cross-sectional analysis reveals, a stronger commitment to nuclear power is the main driver for negative stock market returns. Furthermore, nuclear energy firms domiciled in countries with stronger regulatory shifts away from nuclear energy experience significant increases in market beta and the book-to-market equity factor loading according to the Carhart (1997) 4-factor model. We conclude that capital market participants are able to differentiate between the affectedness of firms with respect to their product portfolio. Energy firms could prevent increases in market beta due to catastrophes such as the Fukushima Daiichi accident by shifting some of their energy production from nuclear to renewable or other sources.     

A proper spent nuclear fuel management strategy could enhance the continuity of nuclear power in the Spanish energy mix

This article presents two economic analyses performed with the Mariño model, which was specially designed to analyse the costs of different spent nuclear fuel (SNF) management strategies in the real Spanish context. These analyses are: (a) a Monte Carlo study for those strategies and (b) the effects of a longer operational lifetime for the Spanish nuclear power plants (NPPs) on the costs of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) management. For the first analysis, a triangular distribution for the different unitary costs was assumed and the data and assumptions from numerous studies were used to obtain the values required for the distribution. The second analysis was performed for the current official shutdown dates for the NPPs, and the results were compared to other operational lifetime scenarios. The main assumption for these scenarios was a progressive shutdown of the reactors, in order to avoid numerous shutdowns in a few years. These scenarios were proposed for 40 to 60 years of mean operational lifetime of the reactors. The results show that, for all scenarios analysed, the additional electricity production due to longer operational lifetimes compensate the extra costs caused by the larger amount of SNF to be managed. Additionally, for the current SNF management strategy, a progressive shutdown at 40 years of mean operational lifetime has shown to entail lower costs than the official shutdown scenario. However, a strategy without a centralised interim storage facility would be the most economically favourable one for all the scenarios analysed.     

氢能源:日本未来的产业支柱

通常，人们把石油、煤炭、天然气等天然能源称为“一次性能源”，而这些“一次性能源”经过加工、转换，才能成为易于使用的电力、煤气、汽油等“二次性能源”。目前，日本的一次性能源构成占全部能源结构的81％，这造成了能源过于依赖中东地区、石化能源枯竭和地球环境遭到破坏等诸多不利。     

Hydrogen energy's key contributions to the sustainable energy mix of a low-carbon future in Nigeria

During the period between 2001 and 2007, oil prices increased from $20 to $140 per barrel, making oil prices higher than at any period in the twenty-first century. This was invariably good in gross domestic product terms for Nigeria which most regrettably, has continued to be a monoproduct oil economy since oil production started in the 1960s, with no value addition to the crude oil export. Indeed, the country still imports refined products to meet her domestic requirements, over 50 years after the first oil wells were drilled at Oloibiri in the Niger Delta region. Nigeria's proven oil reserves are reported as 36.2 billion barrels as at the end of 2010, with an R/P ratio of 42.4 and contributing 2.7% of world oil output (http://www.bp.com/assets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2011/STAGING/local_assets/pdf/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_report_2011.pdf). While estimates indicate that the world has 43.44 years left of this non-renewable resource (http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/2010_downloads/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_report_2010.pdf); with all assumptions associated with such estimates, upstream resource investment continues at the exploration end, and in Nigeria, new findings are frequently being announced which make the total resource estimate to be rather dynamic, as expected. An envisaged future built on hydrogen energy is known as the hydrogen economy since it has impacts on the economy, environment and society. Hydrogen can be produced from a variety of ‘raw materials’, some of which are abundantly available in Nigeria and they include natural gas, coal, biomass, agricultural and municipal wastes, and ocean water using energy from the sun and the wind. In light of the ongoing developments in the energy sector in Nigeria, the focus of this present review is to analyse the current energy situation with a view to estimating the potentials and implications of a hydrogen economy for Nigeria. Several issues and constraints are considered such as population growth, urbanisation, the transportation sector, production of hydrogen from fossil fuels as a short-term measure to developing a hydrogen infrastructure and ultimately clean production of hydrogen from renewable energy sources. This paper describes a future hydrogen economy from a climate change perspective that is based on production processes that have zero or near zero-carbon emissions to the environment. The economic impact aspects are, however, not addressed in this work. Nonetheless, the review provides a detailed and realistic assessment of the prospects of a hydrogen economy for a future low-carbon growth path for Nigeria.     

Integrated hydrogen production options based on renewable and nuclear energy sources

Due to varied global challenges, potential energy solutions are needed to reduce environmental impact and improve sustainability. Many of the renewable energy resources are of limited applicability due to their reliability, quality, quantity, and density. Thus, the need remains for additional sustainable and reliable energy sources that are sufficient for large-scale energy supply to complement and/or back up renewable energy sources. Nuclear energy has the potential to contribute a significant share of energy supply with very limited impacts to global climate change. Hydrogen production via thermochemical water decomposition is a potential process for direct utilization of nuclear thermal energy. Nuclear hydrogen and power systems can complement renewable energy sources by enabling them to meet a larger extent of global energy demand by providing energy when the wind does not blow, the sun does not shine, and geothermal and hydropower energies are not available. Thermochemical water splitting with a copper–chlorine (Cu–Cl) cycle could be linked with nuclear and selected renewable energy sources to decompose water into its constituents, oxygen and hydrogen, through intermediate copper and chlorine compounds. In this study, we present an integrated system approach to couple nuclear and renewable energy systems for hydrogen production. In this regard, nuclear and renewable energy systems are reviewed to establish some appropriate integrated system options for hydrogen production by a thermochemical cycle such as Cu–Cl cycle. Several possible applications involving nuclear independent and nuclear assisted renewable hydrogen production are proposed and discussed. Some of the considered options include storage of hydrogen and its conversion to electricity by fuel cells when needed.     

Sustainable energy options for Pakistan

With the advent of the year 2008, Pakistan faces a gap of 4500 MW between the demand and supply of electricity, registering a shortfall of 40%. The article provides an overview of the key dimensions of the crisis, i.e. growing gap between demand and supply, diminishing indigenous oil and gas reserves, rising energy cost and security concerns. It also explores hydropower, solar energy, biomass and wind power as sustainable energy options for the country. In has been found that the total estimated hydropower potential is more than 42 GW out of which only 6.5 GW has been tapped so far. In terms of available solar energy Pakistan is amongst the richest countries in the world, having an annual global irradiance value of 1900–2200 kWh/m². Despite that fact that the biomass plays an important role in the primary energy mix by contributing to 36% of the total supplies, it has not managed to break into the commercial energy market. Wind power, also been identified as a potential source of energy, is yet to take off.     

Partisan amplification of risk: American perceptions of nuclear energy risk in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi disaster

AimThis study examines risk perceptions toward nuclear power before and after the Fukushima Daiichi disaster using nationally representative survey samples of American adults.ScopeOn March 11, 2011, a magnitude 8.4 earthquake, the largest in the nation's history, occurred off the coast of Japan. The earthquake produced a devastating tsunami that flooded areas of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant and resulted in a loss of power to the plant's cooling system. In the weeks that followed, the world watched as Japanese and international nuclear power safety experts scrambled to contain the damage and prevent a full meltdown. Although the Fukushima Daiichi disaster was heavily covered in media, there is little empirical research on how this coverage impacted audience risk perceptions. Our analysis goes beyond examining aggregate risk perceptions, instead focusing on how specific sub-populations responded to the disaster.ConclusionWe found that ideological groups responded differently to the events in Japan. In particular, risk perceptions among conservatives decreased following the incident. Moreover, we found that media use exacerbated these effects. We discuss possible explanations for these findings.     

Study of an energy mix for the production of hydrogen

This paper analyses the electricity generation through a mini-hydro plant (MHP) and a photovoltaic (PV) system particularly sized for a location in Tomar (Portugal). A system based on this energy mix is adopted to produce hydrogen (H₂) and oxygen (O₂) by electrolysis of water, at high pressure, for energy storage purposes. Some features of the different equipments chosen in this study and the project's economic viability are also presented in the paper.     

Economic growth,energy intensity and the energy mix

This paper explores how changes in energy intensity and the switch to renewables can boost economic growth. To do so, we implement a dynamic panel data approach on a sample of 134 countries over the period 1960 to 2010. We incorporate a set of control variables, related to human and physical capital, socio-economic conditions, policies and institutions, which have been widely used in the literature on economic growth. Given the current state of technology, improving energy intensity is growth enhancing at the worldwide level. Moreover, conditional to energy intensity, moving from fossil fuels to frontier renewables (wind, solar, wave or geothermic) is also positively correlated with growth. Our results are robust to the specification of the dynamic panel with respect to alternative approaches (pooled OLS, within group or system GMM), and to alternative specifications (accounting for heterogeneity across countries, a set of institutional factors, and other technical aspects).     

Analysis on the Design of Japan FIT after Fukushima Disaster Using GIS and TIMES Integrated Model

This study aims to illustrate the Japanese electricity supply system after the earthquake with consideration of Japanese uniqueness including its 10 separate grids with weak connections between them and the geographical gap between renewable potential and electricity consumptions using GIS data for a TIMES model. We take FIT （feed-in-tariff） as a policy measure to promote renewables. To consider policies to promote renewables, we need a modelling approach where the electricity system of the entire country is represented with extremely disaggregated information on existing stock and future potentials of renewables. By building up technology models based on detailed disaggregate information on existing stocks and future potentials of renewables at the sub-regional level, we can develop renewables-related policies which reflect more realistic conditions. According to the simulation results, high FIT prices do not guarantee more introductions of renewables. High FIT prices make the huge potential of renewables commercially viable, but at the same time, they limit the maximum introduction of renewables. In addition, a high FIT budget does not guarantee more renewable introduction.     

彻底解决我国未来能源问题是依靠核能,还是依靠可再生能源?

彻底解决我国未来能源问题是依靠核能,还是依靠可再生能源?目前在世界范围内出现的事实是:2002年全世界消费的可再生能源为19.66亿t标准煤,约相当于     

Acceptance of nuclear power: The Fukushima effect

Utilizing a longitudinal study design, the impact of the 2011 accident in Fukushima on acceptance of nuclear power and the evaluation of several scenarios with different percentages of nuclear power were examined. Mail surveys were conducted in the German-speaking part of Switzerland. The first survey took place before the accident in Fukushima (Autumn 2010), the second survey immediately after the accident (March 2011), and the third survey half a year after the accident (October 2011). A sample of 463 persons participated in all three surveys. The accident had a negative impact on the acceptance of nuclear power. The mean change was moderate, and high correlations between the measurement points were observed. Overall, participants thus showed rather stable attitudes towards nuclear power across the three measurement waves. Results of the present study demonstrate the importance of prior beliefs and attitudes for the interpretation of an accident. The evaluation of the various scenarios was strongly influenced by participants’ pre-Fukushima attitudes towards nuclear power.     

Evaluating policy options for increasing the RES-E penetration in Greece

According to the current European and national legislation, Greece targets to a 40% share of renewable energy sources (RES) in electricity production by 2020.     

Evaluating the benefits of an electrical energy storage system in a future smart grid

Interest in electrical energy storage systems is increasing as the opportunities for their application become more compelling in an industry with a back-drop of ageing assets, increasing distributed generation and a desire to transform networks into Smart Grids. A field trial of an energy storage system designed and built by ABB is taking place on a section of 11 kV distribution network operated by EDF Energy Networks in Great Britain. This paper reports on the findings from simulation software developed at Durham University that evaluates the benefits brought by operating an energy storage system in response to multiple events on multiple networks. The tool manages the allocation of a finite energy resource to achieve the most beneficial shared operation across two adjacent areas of distribution network. Simulations account for the key energy storage system parameters of capacity and power rating. Results for events requiring voltage control and power flow management show how the choice of operating strategy influences the benefits achieved. The wider implications of these results are discussed to provide an assessment of the role of electrical energy storage systems in future Smart Grids.