Views on peak oil and its relation to climate change policy

Definitions of fossil fuel reserves and resources and assessed stock data are reviewed and clarified. Semantics explain a large stake of conflict between advocate and critical voices on peak oil. From a holistic sources–sinks perspective, limited carrying capacity of atmospheric sinks, not absolute scarcity in oil resources, will impose tight constraints on oil use. Eventually observed peaks in oil production in nearby years will result from politically imposed limits on carbon emissions, and not be caused by physical lack of oil resources. Peak-oil belief induces passive climate policy attitudes when suggesting carbon dioxide emissions will peak naturally linked to dwindling oil supplies. Active policies for reducing emissions and use of fossil fuels will also encompass higher energy end-use prices. Revenues obtained from higher levies on oil use can support financing energy efficiency and renewable energy options. But when oil producers charge the higher prices they can pump new oil for many decades, postponing peak oil to occur while extending carbon lock-in.     

International overview of hydrogen and fuel cell research

Increasing environmental problems, limited fossil resources and the geopolitical dependence on crude oil are enormous challenges for our societies. According to energy experts from all over the world, fuel cell and hydrogen energy technologies will play an important role in the portfolio for a future energy economy. This is particularly true for the transport sector which is marked today by an extreme dependency on oil. Hydrogen needs to be produced cost-effectively and with zero or near-zero CO₂ emissions. Fuel cells, with their high electrical efficiencies and clean exhaust energy conversion, have the potential to produce excellent solutions to the ecological and economic problems provided that their development is pursued in a determined way and that their market launch is prepared.     

Energy access and security strategies in Small Island Developing States

Small Islands Developing States (SIDS) are isolated and surrounded by ocean. The generation and use of energy resources are two very important aspects for the development of SIDS. Unfortunately, most of SIDS do not use their potential in respect of energy resources, and they as a result have to depend on the import of fossil fuels in order to meet their energy needs. This increases the overall vulnerability of SIDS as they have to depend on the rising or fluctuating fossil fuels prices. Some SIDS, especially in the geographically dispersed Pacific region, do not have proper access to energy whereas other SIDS struggle more with energy security issue. At the same time, SIDS are most vulnerable to the impacts and effects of climate change, as they are among the ones to be most severely affected in case of natural calamities and sea-level rise.Drawing on experiences from Fiji and Mauritius, this paper explains core elements related to energy access and security in SIDS, contextualizes and discusses barriers and list some of the strategies that may be used to ensure access to and a continuous supply of energy in SIDS. A situational analysis of two SIDS outlines their current energy situation and compares their energy policies to globally accepted criteria for SIDS policies as well as with each other. It is claimed that the diverging energy performances of Fiji and Mauritius cannot be explained by policies differences. The reasons for the varying energy performances may therefore lie in the administrative and institutional mechanisms used by the two countries in implementing their energy policies. Finally, to enable SIDS to reduce their overall vulnerability and become truly sustainable islands, it is recommended to undertake careful assessments of the particular local contexts under which island energy regimes operate.     

Artificial neural network analysis of world green energy use

This paper focuses on the analysis of world green energy consumption through artificial neural networks (ANN). In addition, the consumption is also analyzed of world primary energy including fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas. A feed-forward back-propagation ANN is used for training and learning processes by taking into consideration data from the literature of world energy consumption from 1965 to 2004. Also, an ANN approach for forecasting world green energy consumption to the year 2050 is presented, and the consumption equations for different energy sources are derived. The environmental aspects of green energy and fossil fuels are discussed in detail. The resulting ANN-based equation curve profiles verify that the available economic reserves of fossil fuel resources are limited, and become “depleted” in the near future. It is expected that world green energy consumption will reach almost 62.74 EJ by 2010, and be on average 32.29% of total energy use between 2005 and 2025. However, world green energy and natural gas consumption will continue increasing after 2050, while world oil and coal consumption are expected to remain relatively stable after 2025 and 2045, respectively. The ANN approach appears to be a suitable method for forecasting energy consumption data, should be utilized in efforts to model world energy consumption.     

A review on global wind energy policy

With the increasing negative effects of fossil fuel combustion on the environment in addition to limited stock of fossil fuel have forced many countries to inquire into and change to environmentally friendly alternatives that are renewable to sustain the increasing energy demand. Energy policy plays a vital role to mitigate the impacts of global warming and crisis of energy availability. This paper explores the wind energy industry from the point of view of the wind energy policy. It is noticed that energy policy could help increasing wind power generation as well as stimulating the energy industry. It may be stated that without specific energy policy, a country would not be able to solve the acute problems like reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission, scarcity of energy, etc. This paper discussed the existing successful energy policies for few selected countries. Based on literatures, it has been found that FIT, RPS, incentives, pricing law and Quota system are the most useful energy policies practiced by many countries around the world. Then, status of wind energy policy for Malaysia was investigated and compared with few selected countries around the world.     

Developing a framework for renewable technology portfolio selection: A case study at a R&D center

The rapid development of technologies, their increasing complexity and variety, long lead times of R&D and market dynamics have made the task of technology selection difficult. Considering high level of competitiveness, organizations need to strategically allocate their limited resources to the best subset of possible projects.Today, the increased consumption of energy in modern industrial societies, in addition to the risk of quick exhaustion of fossil resources, has brought about irreversible and threatening environmental changes faced by the world. Dealing with these challenges, decision makers focus on the development of renewable energy technology viewed both as a process of diversification of energy sources and as a creation of an alternative energy option that will help curb down global climate change.To successfully tackle investment projects in renewable energy, it is essential to use models facilitating decision making process and guarantying the greatest possible value for organizations. Technology portfolio managers have traditionally used consensus-based tools, such as Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Delphi but these tools are limited in their ability to fully quantify the impact of technology portfolio selection on the overall aspects of the system.This paper presents the results of developing a mathematical model for renewable technology portfolio selection at an oil industry R&D center maximizing support of the organization's strategy and values. The model balances the cost and benefit of the entire portfolio. It is also flexible and changes can be applied very easily.     

Biomass energy in North American policies

The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of biomass energy in the federal government policies of Canada, Mexico and the USA on the development and utilization of biomass energy. These policies span the entire spectrum from poor to excellent. One of the main driving forces displacing fossil fuels today is environmental issues. But there are still major barriers that are affected by government policies and that must be overcome to facilitate the displacement of large amounts of fossil fuels by biomass. Among these are development of large-scale systems that can supply sustainable amounts of biomass energy and biofuels at competitive prices, and nationwide distribution systems that simplify consumer access. These and other barriers must ultimately be addressed if any federal government decides to institute policies to help establish large-scale biomass energy markets. Otherwise biomass energy utilization will continue to rely on government subsidies and will be limited to niche markets for many years until oil depletion and supply disruptions become a fact of life. This indeed may turn out to be the third oil shock in the 21st century.     

世界能源消费形势刍议

能源是现代社会文明和经济发展的生命线,经济愈发展,社会愈进步,对能源的依赖程度也愈高。各能源机构都预测,在本世纪中叶以前,世界能源总需求仍会进一步增长,世界人口的增长亦将促进能源需求的增长。今后经济和能源需求的增长将主要集中在发展中国家,从地区来看,将主要来自亚洲和大洋洲发展中国家,其次是中东和北非以及拉丁美洲。本世纪以来,在一次能耗消费构成中,煤炭和天然气所占比例上升,石油和一次电力(主要是核能)所占比例有所下降。目前水电和核能仍是最大的非化石能源,两者合计占一次能源消费比例约为12%。尽管风能、太阳能、生物质能等来势迅猛,但毕竟基数很小,在本世纪前半叶化石能源仍将居主导地位。由于煤层气、页岩气勘探开发技术日趋成熟,使得天然气(包括非常规天然气)的储量和产量迅速增长。2035年天然气可能占到世界能源消费总量的25%,从而成为超过煤炭、仅次于石油的第二大能源。由于非常规原油储量和产量的迅速增长,弥补了常规原油储量和产量的下滑。石油替代燃料的研究受到普遍重视,目前研究中的四大石油替代燃料领域有:气体燃料、合成燃料、醇醚类燃料和生物质燃料,其中发展最快而又比较普遍的是生物燃料。从长远看生物燃料会有较大发展空间,但未来20~30年内很难实现大规模替代,几十年内石油仍然是生产运输燃料的主要原料。     

On the wind energy in Turkey

Increase in negative effects of fossil fuels on the environment has forced many countries, including Turkey, to use renewable energy sources. Today, clean, domestic and renewable energy is commonly accepted as the key for future life, not only for Turkey but also for the world. As wind energy is an alternative clean energy source compared to the fossil fuels that pollute the atmosphere, systems that convert wind energy to electricity have developed rapidly. Turkey is an energy importing country, more than half of the energy requirement has been supplied by imports. Turkey's domestic fossil fuel resources are extremely limited. In addition, Turkey's geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of wind power. In this context, renewable energy resources appear to be one of the most efficient and effective solutions for sustainable energy development and environmental pollution prevention in Turkey. Since wind energy will be used more and more in the future, its current potential, usage, and assessment in Turkey is the focus of the present study. The paper not only presents a review of the potential and utilization of the wind power in Turkey but also provides some guidelines for policy makers.     

CO2 emissions reduction by price deregulation and fossil fuel taxation A case study of Indonesia

As environmental issues, and the issue of global warming in particular, rise to the top of the international agenda, developing nations are faced with a major question: how to confront these environmental problems and simultaneously address a number of more pressing developmental imperatives? This paper tries to answer that question on a limited scale using Indonesia as a case study. The study indicates that by deregulating energy prices and imposing different levels of taxation on fossil fuels, Indonesia could reduce its CO₂ emissions without considerably suppressing the growth of its economy. In the long run, however, these policies cannot cope with the inevitable rise in coal-use in Indonesia, due to constraints on domestic natural gas and oil resources. Limiting the growth of coal consumption in the future will require direct technological intervention in the supply and demand of energy and a shift in current energy export and import policies.     

When will fossil fuel reserves be diminished?

Crude oil, coal and gas are the main resources for world energy supply. The size of fossil fuel reserves and the dilemma that “when non-renewable energy will be diminished” is a fundamental and doubtful question that needs to be answered. This paper presents a new formula for calculating when fossil fuel reserves are likely to be depleted and develops an econometrics model to demonstrate the relationship between fossil fuel reserves and some main variables. The new formula is modified from the Klass model and thus assumes a continuous compound rate and computes fossil fuel reserve depletion times for oil, coal and gas of approximately 35, 107 and 37 years, respectively. This means that coal reserves are available up to 2112, and will be the only fossil fuel remaining after 2042. In the Econometrics model, the main exogenous variables affecting oil, coal and gas reserve trends are their consumption and respective prices between 1980 and 2006. The models for oil and gas reserves unexpectedly show a positive and significant relationship with consumption, while presenting a negative and significant relationship with price. The econometrics model for coal reserves, however, expectedly illustrates a negative and significant relationship with consumption and a positive and significant relationship with price. Consequently, huge reserves of coal and low-level coal prices in comparison to oil and gas make coal one of the main energy substitutions for oil and gas in the future, under the assumption of coal as a clean energy source.     

Canada’s energy perspectives and policies for sustainable development

A regression analysis is performed to make projections for the Canadian energy production and consumption. These have been increasing and are projected to increase even further in the near future. The primary energy production and consumption are projected to increase by 52% and 34%, respectively, by 2025 over 2004 if business as usual. The amount of fossil energy resources is finite and the extraction, transportation and combustion of fossil fuels cause environmental pollution and climate change. On the other hand, energy plays an important role in the economic and social development of Canada. Canada can develop further from an energy balance point of view, but this alone cannot be sustainable, because of the negative consequences of the major energy use on the environment. Application of energy localization and diversification is a promising solution, but in order to reach that, better energy efficiency and more use of renewable energy are necessary. Instead of non-compulsory policies Canada’s policy approach should have more compulsory policies. Only then Canada can be made to develop further in a sustainable manner.     

Banana biomass as potential renewable energy resource: A Malaysian case study

The world has been relying on fossil fuels as its primary source of energy. This unsustainable energy source is not going to last long and thus, gradual shift towards green renewable energy should be practiced. In Malaysia, even though fossil fuel dominates the energy production, renewable energies such as hydropower and biomass are gaining popularity due to the implementation of energy policies and greater understanding on the importance of green energy. Malaysia has been well endowed with natural resources in areas such as agriculture and forestry. Thus, with the availability of feedstock, biomass energy is practical to be conducted and oil palm topped the ranking as biomass source here because of its high production. However, new sources should be sought after as to avoid the over dependency on a single source. Hence, other agriculture biomass should be considered such as banana plant biomass. This paper will discuss on its potential as a new biomass source in Malaysia. Banana plant is chosen as the subject due to its availability, high growth rates, carbon neutrality and the fact that it bears fruit only once a lifetime. Conversion of the biomass to energy can be done via combustion, supercritical water gasification and digestion to produce thermal energy and biogas. The theoretical potential power generation calculated reached maximum of 950 MW meeting more than half of the renewable energy requirement in the Fifth Fuel Policy (Eighth Malaysia Plan 2001–2005). Thus, banana biomass is feasible as a source of renewable energy in Malaysia and also other similar tropical countries in the world.     

Investigating the need of nuclear power plants for sustainable energy in Iran

Over the decades, the consumption of all types of energy such as electricity increased rapidly in Iran. Therefore, the government decided to redevelop its nuclear program to meet the rising electricity demand and decrease consumption of fossil fuels. In this paper, the effect of this policy in four major aspects of energy sustainability in the country, including energy price, environmental issues, energy demand and energy security have been verified. To investigate the relative cost of electricity generated in each alternative generator, the simple levelized electricity cost was selected as a method. The results show that electricity cost in fossil fuel power plants presumably will be cheaper than nuclear. Although the usage of nuclear reactor to generate power is capable of decreasing hazardous emissions into the environment, there are many other effective policies and technologies that can be implemented. Energy demand growth in the country is very high; neither nuclear nor fossil fuel cannot currently cope with the growth. So, the only solution is rationalizing energy demand by price amendment and encouraging energy efficiency. The major threats of energy security in Iran are high energy consumption growth and economic dependency on crude oil export. Though nuclear energy including its fuel cycle is Iran's assured right, constructing more nuclear power plants will not resolve the energy sustainability problems. In fact, it may be the catalyst for deterioration since it will divert capital and other finite resources from top priority and economic projects such as energy efficiency, high technology development and energy resources management.     

The predominance of economic development in the support for large-scale wind farms in the U.S. Great Plains

Wind energy is one of the fastest growing sources of power generation in the world. While general public and political support for wind energy is often high, siting wind farms frequently raises concerns in local communities, and individual projects often fail because of effective public opposition. This paper presents the results of a postal and online survey questionnaire that explores public perceptions of wind energy in two of the most important states for wind development, Texas and Iowa. The goal is a better understanding of public reactions to large-scale wind developments as a prerequisite of more widespread use of renewable energy resources. We found a high level of public support for wind energy, with more than two-thirds of respondents being in favor of building more wind farms either in their community or within the U.S. as a whole. Given that the majority of respondents had a very high level of concern for the general environment, we also found that almost two-thirds of respondents counter-intuitively indicated that producing electricity using fossil fuels is not detrimental to the environment, and that they had little concern for global climate change. Our results suggest that arguing for more renewable sources of energy based on reducing our carbon footprint is less persuasive in these communities than simply approaching it from the perspective of wind being a clean and safe source of energy. More than two-thirds of respondents felt their county had benefited economically from the wind farms and that they were a source of job creation in the county. Support for wind power in these communities is associated far more with socioeconomic factors than foundational aesthetic or moral values, with wind farms perceived as the vehicle that will reverse economic decline.     

Analysis of olive grove residual biomass potential for electric and thermal energy generation in Andalusia (Spain)

As fossil fuels are not only a limited resource, but also contribute to global warming, a transition towards a more sustainable energy supply is urgently needed. Therefore, today's environmental policies are largely devoted to fostering the development and implementation of renewable energy technologies. One important aspect of this transition is the increased use of biomass to generate renewable energy. Agricultural residues are produced in huge amounts worldwide, and most of this residue is composed of biomass that can be used for energy generation. Consequently, converting this residue into energy can increase the value of waste materials and reduce the environmental impact of waste disposal. This paper analyses the situation of biomass energy resources in Andalusia, an autonomous community in the south of Spain. More specifically, biomass is the renewable source which most contributes to Andalusian energy infrastructure. The residual biomass produced in the olive sector is the result of the large quantity of olive groves and olive oil manufacturers that generate byproducts with a potentially high energy content. The generation of agricultural and industrial residues from the olive sector produced in Andalusia is an important source of different types of residual biomass that are suitable for thermal and electric energy since they reduce the negative environmental effects of emissions from fossil fuels, such as the production of carbon dioxide.     

Review of climate change issues: A forcing function perspective in agricultural and energy innovation

Climate change is observed globally, and the projections predict that the change will continue in the future for quite a long time. The mitigation and adaptation to climate change, however, are offering tremendous business opportunities around the world, especially for businesses operating in the agri‐food, energy, finance, and health sectors, water infrastructure, built environments, and other relevant services. When the severity of heat waves is considered, for instance, it would become quite clear that the demand for cooling would accelerate, putting further stress on energy supply and increasing the risk of electricity black outs. Similarly, the projections also provide warnings about increased drought risk in many regions around the globe, and even worse, it should also be emphasized that 60% more food will be needed globally, while 100% more demand for food is projected in developing countries by the year 2050. While all these are being projected, we are experiencing progressively increasing stress on our global freshwater resources, which are worsened further by climate change‐driven impacts and water pollution. Consequently, reducing agri‐food production systems' susceptibility to climate change and strengthening the resilience of such systems are extremely important to sustain and improve the livelihoods of billions of people around the globe. Moreover, reducing emissions due to fossil fuels consumption and production is vital for the whole global population, and agri‐food and energy sectors have tremendous potentials for reducing inefficiencies and emissions while simultaneously playing their crucial roles in food and energy security as well as poverty reduction. Both of these sectors are facing significant climate change‐driven challenges, which provide ample opportunities for cutting‐edge novel knowledge and innovative products, processes, services, and policies. And due to the reciprocal relationships between climate change and agri‐food and energy innovations, in return, complementing the other forms, such innovations will speed up the climate change mitigation and adaptation processes.     

Looking into the Danish energy system: Lesson to be learned by other communities

Industrialization, development and social transformation has brought together issues of over exploitation of limited energy resource base (e.g. fossil fuel), accelerated threats of energy insecurity, and liberation of greenhouse gas emissions across the continents. The global challenge for the 21st century and way ahead is to find other means of satisfying energy needs, diversifying the energy supply, up-scaling the make-up of renewable energy to a greater extent, optimization of energy consumption and supply system. Denmark has been continuously moving towards optimization of energy production, usage and its overall management, during and even after the first global oil crisis. The country has been delivering its priority in the development of renewable energy and standing the country an energy self sufficient from last three decades. Country's overall consumption of energy has decreased than that of the decades of 1980 and 1990s, with wider range of energy mix and saving options. The Danish government has strategized to make the country fossil fuel free by 2050, where special attention and interventions is required to boost up its development of renewable energy in the country. The past efforts of the Danish government in the energy development has helped not only making the country ‘energy self sufficient’, but also lowering the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Danish energy policy and strategies have been found more conducive and reflective of the joint EU priorities on the matter of dealing with climate change and energy security. All the past progress and its allied policies seem to be quite supportive in fulfilling its strategies for greener future. This review paper will discuss on the past efforts of Danish government in energy management and highlights on some political initiatives, which have been realised to support the country moving towards clean and green energy future.     

Prospect of biodiesel in Pakistan

Developing countries like Pakistan need continuous supply of cheap energy. It is common fear in today’s world that fossil fuels will be depleted soon. The cost of energy is increasing continuously and is expected to be at its peak by 2050. Many technologically advanced countries are successfully using renewable energy sources for their energy needs, however, they still believe in the importance of fossil fuel. In renewable energy field, Pakistan is using hydropower for energy needs successfully, whereas project regarding solar and wind energy is in progress. Biomass, a renewable energy source, is gaining interest in many researchers because it produces similar type of fuel extracted from crude oil. Energy from biomasses only depends upon the availability of cheap raw material.Biodiesel, which is produced by the reaction of vegetable oil and alcohol, can be used with same or with better performance in diesel engine. It is a clean fuel that causes less environment pollution as compared to petro diesel. High cost and non-continuous supply of vegetable oil is the main hurdle for its general acceptance. Many advanced countries have developed strategy for continuous supply of cheap price energy crops (source of biomass). Biodiesel is the only possible reciprocal to petro diesel or otherwise diesel engine will be useless after the depletion of crude oil.In this study, biodiesel as an energy source has been discussed; this is indigenous diesel engine fuel and is beneficial for our environment, economy, and more importantly will increase the income of our farmers.