Costs and benefits of the renewable production of electricity in Spain

The reduction of pollutant emissions and greenhouse gases, as well as the strong energy dependence on fossil fuels (gas and fuel oil), have, among other reasons, led many countries in recent years to develop policies to promote and encourage the use of alternative, sustainable, clean and predictable sources of energy. This paper presents an overview of the production of electricity from renewable sources (PE-RES) in Spain, and offers an outline of the current level of development of renewable energy. It also reviews the current support system, the costs of integrating renewable energy into the electric system as well as the effects of this type of energy on the electricity wholesale market price, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the environment, human health and employment.     

对我国风电发展战略的冷思考

我国风电发展迅速,计划2010年风电装机容量要达到3500×10^4kW,2020年达到1.5×10^8kW。据IEA预测,2030年世界能源供应仍以化石能源为主,其比重由2006年的80.8%下降到80.4%;2030年世界发电能源结构也以化石能源发电为主,其比重由2006年的74%下降到73%。中国到21世纪中叶传统化石能源仍将居绝对优势地位。因此在可再生能源和新能源的开发过程中,不要急于求成,片面追求能源和电源结构优化不可取。我国未来要依靠核电和新能源发电,但需要通过对其技术经济的进一步研究,才能确定主要靠核电还是风电、太阳能发电或生物质能发电。目前我国风电发展的主要问题是对风电的技术要求起点低,技术路线不对,从国外引进了落后的风电技术。为了我国风电的健康发展,必须加快风电合理利用的研究,包括风电储能和风电直接利用的研究。     

Energy security vs. climate change: Theoretical framework development and experience in selected EU electricity markets

Electricity generation in different countries is based on a variety of fuel mixes compromising solid fossil fuels, oil, natural gas, nuclear and renewable energy sources. While in the past, national energy agendas have directed the optimal utilisation of domestic resources as a means to achieve supply security, today's environmental debates are influencing the electricity fuel mix in new directions. In this paper we examine the electricity sectors of Germany, Greece, Poland and the UK in an attempt to identify the policy and technology choices implemented in each country. The country selection is deliberately made to facilitate an extended overview of national agendas, varying domestic energy resources and industrialisation levels but still within the common EU framework. The focus is placed on policies related to two objectives, climate change mitigation and improving electricity supply security. The theoretical framework developed provides the possibility to assess the electricity sector independence at a national level using a multi-parametric analysis of the fuel mix data. Through a comparative assessment of the knowledge gained in different countries the authors provide insights and suggestions that allow for an improved understanding of the trade-offs and synergies that various policy options may introduce.     

Secure energy supply in 2025: Indonesia's need for an energy policy strategy

Indonesia as an emerging country with one of the fastest growing economies requires sufficient supply with energy for national development. Domestic energy production cannot satisfy the domestic demand, and the deficiency necessitates growing imports. The present energy mix consists of 96% from non-renewable sources, i.e. fossil fuels, less than 4% from renewables. Government Regulation 5/2006 aims at increasing the proportion of renewable sources to 17%. Two scenarios for the energy situation in 2025 have been elaborated and are discussed. An overall energy policy strategy and regulatory framework covering non-renewable and renewable resources are crucial for securing energy demand.     

国际能源结构转型趋势及典型路径比较分析

目前,德国和美国在能源结构转型上都已经取得了一定的成绩,不过两国选择的是两条不尽相同的典型路径。德国更关注低碳清洁转型,其转型路径主要是发展可再生能源以及淘汰核能、逐步减少煤炭使用;从效果来看,德国可再生能源占能源生产和消费结构的比重提高,碳排放量降低。美国则在关注低碳清洁转型的同时,更加关注能源安全,其转型路径既包括非常规油气的大规模开采,也关注可再生能源的前期研发;从效果来看,大大提高了美国的能源安全保障,能源对外依存度逐年下降,并减少了碳排放量。当然,两国在能源结构转型过程中也存在一些问题。德国和美国的经验告诉我们,能源结构转型需要经历一个很长的过程,当前化石能源仍占据主体地位,而技术进步是能源结构转型的根本保障。我国一方面应加强新能源(包括非常规油气)和可再生能源的开发,加大对技术研发的支持和投入力度;另一方面也要进一步加强化石能源,尤其是煤炭的清洁高效利用。另外,应充分进行前瞻性的战略规划和布局,处理好能源结构转型与经济增长、能源行业整体健康发展之间的平衡关系。     

Life cycle assessment of electricity generation in Mexico

This paper presents for the first time a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) study of electricity generation in Mexico. The electricity mix in Mexico is dominated by fossil fuels, which contribute around 79% to the total primary energy; renewable energies contribute 16.5% (hydropower 13.5%, geothermal 3% and wind 0.02%) and the remaining 4.8% is from nuclear power. The LCA results show that 225 TWh of electricity generate about 129 million tonnes of CO₂ eq. per year, of which the majority (87%) is due to the combustion of fossil fuels. The renewables and nuclear contribute only 1.1% to the total CO₂ eq. Most of the other LCA impacts are also attributed to the fossil fuel options. The results have been compared with values reported for other countries with similar electricity mix, including Italy, Portugal and the UK, showing good agreement.     

The contribution of renewable resources in meeting Turkey's energy-related challenges

The aim of this paper is to point out the importance of renewable energy as a key way for resolving the Turkey's energy-related challenges. As a consequence of economic and social development, Turkey's energy consumption has risen dramatically over the past three decades. At present, fossil fuels account for more than 90% of the total energy consumption in the country. Turkey has no large oil and natural gas reserves and it import nearly all of these fossil fuels. Turkey's current energy mix is not likely to support development of sustainable energy. The energy mix shows a relatively small contribution from renewable energy sources in the country. They have the potential to make a large contribution to Turkey's sustainable and independent energy future. In particular they can help to reach the environmental goals of Turkey and to increase the security of energy supply by reducing the dependence on imported-fuel supplies.     

Impacts of wind power generation and CO2 emission constraints on the future choice of fuels and technologies in the power sector of Vietnam

This paper examines the impacts of wind power generation on the future choice of fuels and technologies in the power sector of Vietnam. The study covers a time frame of 20 yr from 2005 to 2025 and the MARKAL model has been chosen to be adaptable to this specific task. The results of the study show that on a simple cost base, power generated from wind is not yet competitive with that of fossil fuel-based power plants. In order to make wind energy competitive, either carbon tax or an emission reduction target on the system must be imposed. The presence of wind power would affect not only the change in generation mix from coal-based power plants to wind turbines but also an increase in the capacity of other technologies which emit less carbon dioxide. It thus helps reduce fossil fuel requirement and consequently enhances energy security for the country. The study also shows that wind turbine in Vietnam could be a potential CDM project for annex I party countries.     

Prospect of hydrogen energy in Asia-Pacific: A perspective review on techno-socio-economy nexus

This paper reviews the prospect to institute the inter-state hydrogen energy system on selected countries in Asia-Pacific region, through individual evaluation from the nexus of technology, social and economy perspectives, and further utilizing the respective strengths to identify the inter-state hydrogen network strategy in Asia-Pacific region, or ‘Asia-Pacific Hydrogen Valley’. Domestic energy self-sufficiency based on the existing energy sources produced nationally is also considered in the review. In looking into the prospective of hydrogen energy system adoption, four indicators are set based on domestic energy capacity, national wealth, society development and research and development (R&D), which are generalized according to the population size of the country. Countries of assessment are Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam, Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. This study reveals that nations with active hydrogen policies and high R&D capacity could lead the strategy, while countries with high capacity in primary energy supply and economy advantage would benefit the group in catering the energy and commercial resources, respectively. Social acceptance is another critical aspect, as countries with high social security index could potentially reduce the risk of public rebuttal against the energy system transformation. This paper also extensively discusses the existing energy profile, policies and strategies of each country, which become the basis in potential identification of the country to adopt the new hydrogen energy system in the future.     

Regional energy resource development and energy security under CO2 emission constraint in the greater Mekong sub-region countries (GMS)

The paper evaluates effects of energy resource development within the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) on energy supply mix, energy system cost, energy security and environment during 2000–2035. A MARKAL-based integrated energy system model of the five GMS countries was developed to examine benefits of regional energy resource development for meeting the energy demand of these countries. The study found that an unrestricted energy resource development and trade within the region would reduce the total-regional energy systems cost by 18% and would abate the total CO₂ emission by 5% as compared to the base case. All the five countries except Myanmar would benefit from the expansion of regional energy resource integration in terms of lower energy systems costs and better environmental qualities. An imposition of CO₂ emission reduction constraint by 5% on each of the study countries from that of the corresponding emissions under the unrestricted energy resource development in the GMS is found to improve energy security, reduce energy import and fossil fuels dependences and increase volume of power trade within the region. The total energy system cost under the joint CO₂ emission reduction strategy would be less costly than that under the individual emission targets set for each country.     

世界能源消费形势刍议

能源是现代社会文明和经济发展的生命线,经济愈发展,社会愈进步,对能源的依赖程度也愈高。各能源机构都预测,在本世纪中叶以前,世界能源总需求仍会进一步增长,世界人口的增长亦将促进能源需求的增长。今后经济和能源需求的增长将主要集中在发展中国家,从地区来看,将主要来自亚洲和大洋洲发展中国家,其次是中东和北非以及拉丁美洲。本世纪以来,在一次能耗消费构成中,煤炭和天然气所占比例上升,石油和一次电力(主要是核能)所占比例有所下降。目前水电和核能仍是最大的非化石能源,两者合计占一次能源消费比例约为12%。尽管风能、太阳能、生物质能等来势迅猛,但毕竟基数很小,在本世纪前半叶化石能源仍将居主导地位。由于煤层气、页岩气勘探开发技术日趋成熟,使得天然气(包括非常规天然气)的储量和产量迅速增长。2035年天然气可能占到世界能源消费总量的25%,从而成为超过煤炭、仅次于石油的第二大能源。由于非常规原油储量和产量的迅速增长,弥补了常规原油储量和产量的下滑。石油替代燃料的研究受到普遍重视,目前研究中的四大石油替代燃料领域有:气体燃料、合成燃料、醇醚类燃料和生物质燃料,其中发展最快而又比较普遍的是生物燃料。从长远看生物燃料会有较大发展空间,但未来20~30年内很难实现大规模替代,几十年内石油仍然是生产运输燃料的主要原料。     

The Benefits of Renewables in Turkey

Renewable energy is proving to be commercially viable for a growing list of consumers and uses. Renewable energy technologies provide many benefits that go well beyond energy alone. More and more, renewable energies are contributing to the three pillars of sustainable development not only in IEA countries, but globally. Turkey is an energy-importing country; more than half of the energy requirement has been supplied by imports. Domestic oil and lignite reserves are limited and lignites are characterized by high ash, sulfur, and moisture content. In this regard, renewable energy resources appear to be one of the most efficient and effective solutions for sustainable energy development in Turkey. Turkey's geographical location has several advantages for the extensive use of most of these renewable energy sources. Because of this and the fact that it has limited fossil fuel resources, a gradual shift from fossil fuels to renewables seems to be serious and the sole alternative for Turkey. This article presents the role of the renewables in future directions in IEA countries with Turkey. At present the share of hydropower and biomass is high as 30% in the primary energy production of Turkey. In the case of solar, geothermal, and wind energy, there is an important potential for domestic heating and electricity generation.     

Could nuclear fission energy,etc., solve the greenhouse problem? The affirmative case

For effective climate change mitigation, the global use of fossil fuels for electricity generation, transportation and other industrial uses, will need to be substantially curtailed this century. In a recent Viewpoint in Energy Policy, Trainer (2010) argued that non-carbon energy sources will be insufficient to meet this goal, due to cost, variability, energy storage requirements and other technical limitations. However, his dismissal of nuclear fission energy was cursory and inadequate. Here I argue that fossil fuel replacement this century could, on technical grounds, be achieved via a mix of fission, renewables and fossil fuels with carbon sequestration, with a high degree of electrification, and nuclear supplying over half of final energy. I show that the principal limitations on nuclear fission are not technical, economic or fuel-related, but are instead linked to complex issues of societal acceptance, fiscal and political inertia, and inadequate critical evaluation of the real-world constraints facing low-carbon alternatives.     

生物质应用于制液体和气体燃料而不是用于发电

我国能源结构从长期看仍将以煤为主,缺油少气。从我国能源结构来讲,生物质利用的最好方式不是发电．因生物质可以生产液体和气体燃料,而风能、太阳能、水能却只能发电。我国秸杆综合利用取得明显成效．在农业和畜牧业的利用领域还可能进一步拓宽,作为燃料利用的量还可能进一步缩减。从我国还在进行的第一次能源大转换来看,我国生物质使用量已大大减少,但还有相当的数量。要减少作为能源使用的生物质传统利用量,把它用于饲料、肥料和工业原料等还有发展前景的用途。在一次能源消费以化石能源为主的时期,中国存在液体燃料和气体燃料短缺的问题,以后进入第三次能源转换时期,新能源和可再生能源替代化石能源之后,液体燃料和气体燃料短缺的问题将会更加突出。因此,生物质应用于生产液体燃料和气体燃料,而不是用于发电。而且生物质发电厂投资高、燃料成本不断上涨,使发电成本高＋生物质发电将长期缺乏竞争力。我国发展生物质液体燃料已具备一定的条件．前几年中石油、中石化和中海油已开始种植可提炼生物液体燃料的能源林。我国非粮生物质液体燃料生产基地正在积极建设之中。我国发展生物质气体燃料也具有一定优势,在沼气、气化和城镇有机废物处理方面都积累了一定的经验。总之生物质生产液体燃料和气体燃料是一种既适应我国当前、又适应未来能源需求的有效措施。     

我国生物质能源现代化应用前景展望(一)——生物质资源和供给

生物质能除了可以在改善世界一次能源结构、降低化石能源需求量方面做出重要贡献以外,还可在减少温室气体排放、保障能源供应安全、改善贸易平衡、促进农村发展和改进城市废弃物处理方式等方面发挥作用。目前全球每年一次能源消费总量为500EJ,生物质资源的年用量约占一次能源消费总量的10%左右,主要被用于传统的民用燃料和生产第一代生物燃料。第二代生物燃料技术预计将于2020年前后在一些国家实现工业化生产。IEA预测,2050年世界一次能源需求量为670EJ,生物质资源将占一次能源需求总量的20%左右。各方学者预测的2050年全球生物质资源量最低值基本在200~400EJ之间,最高值在400~1500EJ之间。中国的生物燃料产业尚处于起步阶段,不过应该说取得了良好的开端。我国生物质资源相对较少,且分布不均,发展生物质能产品需要依靠能源作物。只有通过合理开发、有效利用,才能在不与粮食和食用油争夺土地的前提下,在一定程度上提供生物运输燃料和生物质发电供热所需的原料,生物质能-农产品和/或生物质能-林产品联合生产系统应成为主要发展方向。美国生物燃料产业的发展模式对我国具有一定的借鉴意义。生物质最有效的利用方式是生产运输燃料,从长远来看,生物燃料可以与石油燃料竞争,尤其是喷气燃料和汽油更具替代优势,但受到生物质资源供应量的制约。     

Mathematical and computational approaches for design of biomass gasification for hydrogen production: A review

The ever growing environmental concern caused by excessive use of fossil fuels in energy and transportation systems triggered considerable investigations on alternative energy sources such as biomass. Furthermore, the availability and security of fossil fuels to meet future global energy need are also subjected to uncertainty. For these reasons, the world's current focus is shifted towards hydrogen-based future economy. Gasification is a proven technology to produce satisfactory yield of hydrogen. Many studies have been performed to increase the production yield. Due to the extensive range of investigations, mathematical and computational approaches have been applied to conduct these studies. Thus, this paper aims to update and broaden the review coverage by incorporating works done to materialize the investigations on the potential of producing hydrogen from biomass via gasification encompassing mathematical modeling, simulation, optimization, process heat integration and cogeneration. Each of these subjects is reviewed and analyzed which helped to identify their respective strength and areas which require further research effort.     

Political,economic and environmental impacts of biomass-based hydrogen

The purpose of this study is to assess the political, economic and environmental impacts of producing hydrogen from biomass. Hydrogen is a promising renewable fuel for transportation and domestic applications. Hydrogen is a secondary form of energy that has to be manufactured like electricity. The promise of hydrogen as an energy carrier that can provide pollution-free, carbon-free power and fuels for buildings, industry, and transport makes it a potentially critical player in our energy future. Currently, most hydrogen is derived from non-renewable resources by steam reforming in which fossil fuels, primarily natural gas, but could in principle be generated from renewable resources such as biomass by gasification. Hydrogen production from fossil fuels is not renewable and produces at least the same amount of CO₂ as the direct combustion of the fossil fuel. The production of hydrogen from biomass has several advantages compared to that of fossil fuels. The major problem in utilization of hydrogen gas as a fuel is its unavailability in nature and the need for inexpensive production methods. Hydrogen production using steam reforming methane is the most economical method among the current commercial processes. These processes use non-renewable energy sources to produce hydrogen and are not sustainable. It is believed that in the future biomass can become an important sustainable source of hydrogen. Several studies have shown that the cost of producing hydrogen from biomass is strongly dependent on the cost of the feedstock. Biomass, in particular, could be a low-cost option for some countries. Therefore, a cost-effective energy-production process could be achieved in which agricultural wastes and various other biomasses are recycled to produce hydrogen economically. Policy interest in moving towards a hydrogen-based economy is rising, largely because converting hydrogen into useable energy can be more efficient than fossil fuels and has the virtue of only producing water as the by-product of the process. Achieving large-scale changes to develop a sustained hydrogen economy requires a large amount of planning and cooperation at national and international alike levels.     

Lowering Saudi Arabia's fuel consumption and energy system costs without increasing end consumer prices

Using a multi-sector equilibrium model of the Saudi energy system that handles administered prices in a mixed-complementarity formulation, we present results from a set of policy scenarios that lower oil consumption in the country. Some of these scenarios are the solutions to Mathematical Programs subject to Equilibrium Constraints (MPECs) that maximize the net economic gain for the Saudi economy. The policies examined have the potential to generate economic gains exceeding 23 billion USD in 2011, or about 4% of Saudi Arabia's GDP. This economic gain comes mainly from inter-sectoral fuel pricing policies that incent shifting the mix in technologies that generate electricity and produce water from energy intensive technologies to more efficient ones. We show that when complemented by credits for investments in solar and nuclear power generation capacities, a modest increase in the transfer prices of fuels among sectors is sufficient to produce economic gains close to those achieved by deregulating transfer prices. The approach we develop here is an alternative to the classic recommendation of deregulating inter-sectoral fuel prices in situations where the conditions for successful liberalized markets do not exist. It is a template for introducing the notions of incentivizing behavior using prices into countries that rely more on administrative procedures than markets, leading to a deeper understanding of how markets can lead to economic gain.     

The relationship between energy demand and real GDP growth rate: The role of price asymmetries and spatial externalities within 34 countries across the globe

The aim of this paper is to empirically explore the relationship between energy demand and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and to investigate the role of regional externalities on per capita Final Energy Consumption (FEC) in 34 countries during the period from 2005 to 2013. The paper utilizes a Dynamic Panel Generalized Method of Moments (DPGGM) approach and spatial econometric techniques in order to analyse the effect of real GDP growth rate on FEC through an Error Correction Model (ECM) and to examine clustered patterns of energy consumption. The results show that a) the demand is elastic both in the industrial and the household/services sectors, b) electricity and natural gas are demand substitutes, c) the relationship between real GDP growth rate and per capita energy consumption exhibits an inverted U-shape for all the sample countries under scrutiny (34 countries, Eurozone and EU28), but not for all the employed sectors of the economy, d) price (electricity and gas) and GDP growth asymmetries are supported from the employed parametric tests, and, e) distance does not affect per capita FEC, but economic neighbours have a strong positive effect.     

Strategies for a transition from fossil to nuclear fuels

Most countries now wish to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels. In this paper, Professors Häfele and Manne discuss transition away from the current situation where virtually all demands for primary energy are met by fossil fuels. Assuming that this transition is to be based upon nuclear fission, they examine the interplay between natural resource scarcities, economics costs and the assessment of alternative technologies for the production of synthetic fuels.