Performance comparison of a double-axis sun tracking versus fixed PV system

In the present study, performance results of two double axis sun tracking photovoltaic (PV) systems are analyzed after one year of operation. Two identical 7.9 kWp PV systems with the same modules and inverters were installed at Mugla University campus in October 2009. Measured data of the PV systems are compared with the simulated data. The performance measurements of the PV systems were carried out first when the PV systems were in a fixed position and then the PV systems were controlled while tracking the sun in two axis (on azimuth and solar altitude angles) and the necessary measurements were performed. Annual PV electricity yield is calculated as 11.53 MW h with 1459 kW h/kWp energy rating for 28 fixed tilt angle for each system. It is calculated that 30.79% more PV electricity is obtained in the double axis sun-tracking system when compared to the latitude tilt fixed system. The annual PV electricity fed to grid is 15.07 MW h with 1908 kW h/kWp for the double axis sun-tracking PV system between April-2010 and March-2011. The difference between the simulated and measured energy values are less than 5%. The results also allow the comparison of different solutions and the calculation of the electricity output.     

Ethanol from lignocellulosic biomass: techno-economic performance in short-, middle- and long-term

The state of the art of hydrolysis-fermentation technologies to produce ethanol from lignocellulosic biomass, as well as developing technologies, is evaluated. Promising conversion concepts for the short-, middle- and long-term are defined. Their technical performance was analysed, and results were used for economic evaluations. The current available technology, which is based on dilute acid hydrolysis, has about 35% efficiency (HHV) from biomass to ethanol. The overall efficiency, with electricity co-produced from the not fermentable lignin, is about 60%. Improvements in pre-treatment and advances in biotechnology, especially through process combinations can bring the ethanol efficiency to 48% and the overall process efficiency to 68%. We estimate current investment costs at 2.1 k€/kW_HHV (at 400 MW_HHV input, i.e. a nominal 2000 tonne dry/day input). A future technology in a 5 times larger plant (2 GW_HHV) could have investments of 900 k€/kW_HHV. A combined effect of higher hydrolysis-fermentation efficiency, lower specific capital investments, increase of scale and cheaper biomass feedstock costs (from 3 to 2 €/GJ_HHV), could bring the ethanol production costs from 22 €/GJ_HHV in the next 5 years, to 13 €/GJ over the 10–15 year time scale, and down to 8.7 €/GJ in 20 or more years.     

Evaluation of optimal power options for base transceiver stations of Mobile Telephone Networks Cameroon

Photovoltaic hybrid systems (PVHS) with 2 days of energy autonomy are shown to be optimal options for the supply of the daily energy demands of 33 base transceiver stations of MTN Cameroon. PVHS were computed for all sites using the technical data for a 150 Wp mono-crystalline module, the site specific hourly load data, the average monthly solar radiation and temperature. Hourly solar radiation data for all sites were downloaded using the solar resource module of HOMER and geographical coordinates of the selected sites. The 3-hourly temperature data available on a website maintained NASA was used to generate average monthly hourly temperatures needed in the calculation of the output of solar modules. The energy costs and breakeven grid distances for possible power options were computed using the Net Present Value Technique and financial data for selected power system components. The results with a PV module cost of 7.5 €/Wp, a remote diesel price of 1.12 €/l, a general inflation rate of 5% and a fuel escalation of 10% showed that the annual operational times of the diesel generator were in the range 3–356 h/year with renewable energy fractions in the range 0.89–1.00. However, only 22 PVHS had two parallel battery strings as stipulated in the request for proposal launched by MTN Cameroon in 2008. The PV array sizes evaluated for the 22 PVHS were found to be the range 2.4–10.8 kWp corresponding to daily energy demands in the range 7.31–31.79 kW h/d. The energy costs and breakeven grid distances determined were in the ranges 0.81–1.32 €/kW h and 10.75–32.00 km respectively.     

Technical and economic assessment of grid-independent hybrid photovoltaic–diesel–battery power systems for commercial loads in desert environments

Solar photovoltaic (PV) hybrid system technology is a hot topic for R&D since it promises lot of challenges and opportunities for developed and developing countries. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) being endowed with fairly high degree of solar radiation is a potential candidate for deployment of PV systems for power generation. Literature indicates that commercial/residential buildings in KSA consume an estimated 10–45% of the total electric energy generated. In the present study, solar radiation data of Dhahran (East-Coast, KSA) have been analyzed to assess the techno-economic viability of utilizing hybrid PV–diesel–battery power systems to meet the load requirements of a typical commercial building (with annual electrical energy demand of 620,000 kW h). The monthly average daily solar global radiation ranges from 3.61 to 7.96 kW h/m². NREL's HOMER software has been used to carry out the techno-economic viability. The simulation results indicate that for a hybrid system comprising of 80 kWp PV system together with 175 kW diesel system and a battery storage of 3 h of autonomy (equivalent to 3 h of average load), the PV penetration is 26%. The cost of generating energy (COE, US$/kW h) from the above hybrid system has been found to be 0.149 $/kW h (assuming diesel fuel price of 0.1 $/L). The study exhibits that for a given hybrid configuration, the operational hours of diesel generators decrease with increase in PV capacity. The investigation also examines the effect of PV/battery penetration on COE, operational hours of diesel gensets for a given hybrid system. Emphasis has also been placed on unmet load, excess electricity generation, percentage fuel savings and reduction in carbon emissions (for different scenarios such as PV–diesel without storage, PV–diesel with storage, as compared to diesel-only situation), cost of PV–diesel–battery systems, COE of different hybrid systems, etc.     

Feasibility of pico-hydro and photovoltaic hybrid power systems for remote villages in Cameroon

Pico-hydro (pH) and photovoltaic (PV) hybrid systems incorporating a biogas generator have been simulated for remote villages in Cameroon using a load of 73 kWh/day and 8.3 kWp. Renewable energy systems were simulated using HOMER, the load profile of a hostel in Cameroon, the solar insolation of Garoua and the flow of river Mungo. For a 40% increase in the cost of imported power system components, the cost of energy was found to be either 0.352 €/kWh for a 5 kW pico-hydro generator with 72 kWh storage or 0.396 €/kWh for a 3 kWp photovoltaic generator with 36 kWh storage. These energy costs were obtained with a biomass resource cost of 25 €/tonne. The pH and PV hybrid systems both required the parallel operation of a 3.3 kW battery inverter with a 10 kW biogas generator. The pH/biogas/battery systems simulated for villages located in the south of Cameroon with a flow rate of at least 92 l/s produced lower energy costs than PV/biogas/battery systems simulated for villages in the north of Cameroon with an insolation level of at least 5.55 kWh/m²/day. For a single-wire grid extension cost of 5000 €/km, operation and maintenance costs of 125 €/yr/km and a grid power price of 0.1 €/kWh, the breakeven grid extension distances were found to be 12.9 km for pH/biogas/battery systems and 15.2 km for PV/biogas/battery systems respectively. Investments in biogas based renewable energy systems could thus be considered in the National Energy Action Plan of Cameroon for the supply of energy to key sectors involved in poverty alleviation.     

Maximising the energy output of a PVT air system

Simultaneously generating both electricity and low grade heat, photovoltaic thermal (PVT) systems maximise the solar energy extracted per unit of collector area and have the added benefit of increasing the photovoltaic (PV) electrical output by reducing the PV operating temperature. A graphical representation of the temperature rise and rate of heat output as a function of the number of transfer units NTUs illustrates the influence of fundamental parameter values on the thermal performance of the PVT collector. With the aim of maximising the electrical and thermal energy outputs, a whole of system approach was used to design an experimental, unglazed, single pass, open loop PVT air system in Sydney. The PVT collector is oriented towards the north with a tilt angle of 34°, and used six 110 Wp frameless PV modules. A unique result was achieved whereby the additional electrical PV output was in excess of the fan energy requirement for air mass flow rates in the range of 0.03–0.05 kg/s m². This was made possible through energy efficient hydraulic design using large ducts to minimise the pressure loss and selection of a fan that produces high air mass flow rates (0.02–0.1 kg/s m²) at a low input power (4–85 W). The experimental PVT air system demonstrated increasing thermal and electrical PV efficiencies with increasing air mass flow rate, with thermal efficiencies in the range of 28–55% and electrical PV efficiencies between 10.6% and 12.2% at midday.     

An experimental investigation of a household size trigeneration

A household size trigeneration based on a small-scale diesel engine generator set is designed and realized in laboratory. Experimental tests are carried out to evaluate the performance and emissions of the original single generation (diesel engine generator); and the performances of the whole trigeneration including the diesel generator within the trigeneration system, the heat exchangers which are used to recover heat from engine exhaust, the absorption refrigerator which is driven by the exhaust heat; and the emissions from the whole trigeneration.Comparisons of the test results of two generations are also performed. The test results show that the total thermal efficiency of trigeneration reaches to 67.3% at the engine full load, comparing to that of the original single generation 22.1% only. Within the range of engine loads tested, the total thermal efficiencies of trigeneration are from 205% to 438% higher than that of the thermal efficiency of single generation.The CO₂ emission per unit (kW h) of useful energy output from trigeneration is 0.401 kg CO₂/kW h at the engine full load, compared to that of 1.22 kg CO₂/kW h from single generation at the same engine load. Within the range of engine loads tested, the reductions of CO₂ emission per unit (kW h) of trigeneration output are from 67.2% to 81.4% compared to those of single generation.The experimental results show that the idea of realizing a household size trigeneration is feasible; the design and the set-up of the trigeneration is successful. The experimental results show that the innovative small-scale trigeneration is able to generate electricity, produce heat and drive a refrigeration system, simultaneously from a single fuel (diesel) input.     

Optical efficiency of a PV–thermal hybrid CPC module for high latitudes

The advantage of PV–thermal hybrid systems is their high total efficiency. By using concentrating hybrid systems, the cost per energy produced is reduced due to simultaneous heat and electricity production and a reduced PV cell area. In this article, the optical efficiency of a water-cooled PV–thermal hybrid system with low concentrating aluminium compound parabolic concentrators is discussed. The system was built in 1999 in Älvkarleby, Sweden (60.5° N, 17.4° E) with a geometric concentration ratio of C=4 and 0.5 kW_p electric power. The yearly output is 250 kWh of electricity per square metre solar cell area and 800 kWh of heat at low temperatures per square metre solar cell area. By using numerical data from optical measurements of the components (glazing, reflectors, and PV cells) the optical efficiency, η_opt, of the PV–CPC system has been determined to be 0.71, which is in agreement with the optical efficiency as determined from thermal and electrical measurements. Calculations show that optimised antireflection-treated glazing and reflectors could further increase the electric power yield.     

Energy and efficiency analysis of environmental heat sources and sinks: In-use performance

A detailed analysis of the heating and cooling performance of environmental heat sources and sinks is presented for 12 low-energy buildings in Germany. In particular, the analysis focuses on the given temperature levels and the efficiency performance of the environmental heat sources and sinks in summer and winter. The investigated buildings employ environmental heat sources and sinks – such as the ground, groundwater, rainwater and the ambient air – in combination with thermo-active building systems (TABS). These concepts are promising approaches for slashing the primary energy use of buildings without violating occupant thermal comfort. A limited primary energy use of about 100 kW h_prim/(m_net² a) as a target for the complete building service technology (HVAC and lighting) was postulated for all buildings presented. With respect to this premise, comprehensive long-term monitoring in fine time-resolution occurred over a period from two to five years. An accompanying commissioning of the building performance took place. Measurements include water supply and return temperatures of the environmental heat sources/sinks, the generated heating and cooling energy, efficiencies of the system, and local climatic site conditions. The comparative evaluation of the systems in all buildings identifies weak points and success factors of the plant. Besides, it characterizes the single component and points out further potential for optimization measures. The annual efficiency performance of the geothermal heat sources and sinks results in a seasonal performance factor of 8–10 kW h_therm/kW h_end, where the end energy use is electricity. The ground, groundwater, rainwater and even the ambient air constitute efficient heat sources/sinks. Energy is needed only for distributing the heat and cold and not for its generation. The choice of suitable plant components, the accurate design of the hydraulic system and the correct dimension of the environmental heat source/sink play a central role in achieving higher efficiencies.     

Performance of simulated flexible integrated gasification polygeneration facilities,Part B: Economic evaluation.

This paper investigates the economics of integrated gasification polygeneration (IG-PG) facilities and assesses under which market conditions flexible facilities outperform static facilities. In this study, the facilities use Eucalyptus wood pellets (EP), torrefied wood pellets (TOPS) and Illinois #6 coal as feedstock to produce electricity, FT-liquids, methanol and urea. All facilities incorporate CCS. The findings show production costs from static IG-PG facilities ranging between 12 and 21 €/GJ using coal, 19–33 €/GJ using TOPS and 22–38 €/GJ using EP, which is above the average market prices. IG-PG facilities can become competitive if capital costs drop by 10%–27% for coal based facilities. Biomass based facilities will need lower biomass pellet prices or higher CO₂ credit prices. Biomass becomes competitive with coal at a CO₂ credit price of 50–55 €/t CO₂. Variations in feedstock, CO₂ credit and electricity prices can be offset by operating a feedstock flexible IG-PG facility, which can switch between coal and TOPS, thereby altering its electricity production. The additional investment is around 0.5% of the capital costs of a dedicated coal based IG-PG facility. At 30 €/t CO₂, TOPS will be the preferred feedstock for 95% of the time at a feedstock price of 5.7 €/GJ. At these conditions, FT-liquids (gasoline/diesel) can be produced for 15.8 €/GJ (116 $/bbl). Historic records show price variations between 5.7 and 7.3 €/GJ for biomass pellet, 1.0–5.6 €/GJ for coal and 0–32 €/t CO₂. Within these price ranges, coal is generally the preferred feedstock, but occasionally biomass is preferred. Lower biomass prices will increase the frequency of switching feedstock preference from coal to biomass, raising the desire for flexibility. Of the three investigated chemicals, an IG-PG facility producing FT-liquids benefits the most from flexibility. Our study suggests that if the uncertainty in commodity prices is high, a small additional investment can make flexible IG-PG facilities attractive.     

Development of an economical model to determine an appropriate feed-in tariff for grid-connected solar PV electricity in all states of Australia

Australia is a country with a vast amount of natural resources including sun and wind. Australia lies between latitude of 10–45°S and longitude of 112–152°E, with a daily solar exposure of between less than 3 MJ/(m² day) in winter and more than 30 MJ/(m² day) in summer.Global solar radiation in Australia varies between minimum of 3285 MJ/(m² year) in Hobart to 8760 MJ/(m² year) in Northern Territory. As a result of this wide range of radiation level there will be a big difference between costs of solar PV electricity in different locations.A study we have recently conducted on the solar PV electricity price in all states of Australia. For this purpose we have developed an economical model and a computer simulation to determine the accurate unit price of grid-connected roof-top solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity in A$/kWh for all state of Australia. The benefit of this computer simulation is that we can accurately determine the most appropriate feed-in tariff of grid-connected solar PV energy system. The main objective of this paper is to present the results of this study.A further objective of this paper is to present the details of the unit price of solar PV electricity in the state of Victoria in each month and then to compare with electricity price from conventional power systems, which is currently applied to this state. The state Victoria is located south of Australia and in terms of sun radiation is second lowest compared with the other Australian states.The computer simulation developed for this study makes it possible to determine the cost of grid-connected solar PV electricity at any location in any country based on availability of average daily solar exposure of each month as well as economical factors of the country.     

National-scale wave energy resource assessment for Australia

A nationally consistent wave resource assessment is presented for Australian shelf (<300 m) waters. Wave energy and power were derived from significant wave height and period, and wave direction hindcast using the AusWAM model for the period 1 March 1997 to 29 February 2008 inclusive. The spatial distribution of wave energy and power is available on a 0.1° grid covering 110–156° longitude and 7–46° latitude. Total instantaneous wave energy on the entire Australian shelf is on average 3.47 PJ. Wave power is greatest on the 3000 km-long southern Australian shelf (Tasmania/Victoria, southern Western Australia and South Australia), where it widely attains a time-average value of 25–35 kW m^?1 (90th percentile of 60–78 kW m^?1), delivering 800–1100 GJ m^?1 of energy in an average year. New South Wales and southern Queensland shelves, with moderate levels of wave power (time-average: 10–20 kW m^?1; 90th percentile: 20–30 kW m^?1), are also potential sites for electricity generation due to them having a similar reliability in resource delivery to the southern margin. Time-average wave power for most of the northern Australian shelf is <10 kW m^?1. Seasonal variations in wave power are consistent with regional weather patterns, which are characterised by winter SE trade winds/summer monsoon in the north and winter temperate storms/summer sea breezes in the south. The nationally consistent wave resource assessment for Australian shelf waters can be used to inform policy development and site-selection decisions by industry.     

A model of residential energy end-use in Canada: Using conditional demand analysis to suggest policy options for community energy planners

We applied conditional demand analysis (CDA) to estimate the average annual energy use of various electrical and natural gas appliances, and derived energy reductions associated with certain appliance upgrades and behaviours. The raw data came from 9773 Canadian households, and comprised annual electricity and natural gas use, and responses to >600 questions on dwelling and occupant characteristics, appliances, heating and cooling equipment, and associated behaviours. Replacing an old (>10 years) refrigerator with a new one was estimated to save 100 kW h/year; replacing an incandescent lamp with a CFL/LED lamp was estimated to save 20 kW h/year; and upgrading an old central heating system with a new one was estimated to save 2000 kW h/year. This latter effect was similar to that of reducing the number of walls exposed to the outside. Reducing the winter thermostat setpoint during occupied, waking hours was estimated to lower annual energy use by 200 kW h/°C-reduction, and lowering the thermostat setting overnight in winter relative to the setting during waking hours (night-time setback) was estimated to have a similar effect. This information may be used by policy-makers to optimize incentive programs, information campaigns, or other energy use change instruments.     

Economic assessment of a two-stage solar organic Rankine cycle for reverse osmosis desalination

The current paper presents the economic evaluation of a two-stage Solar Organic Rankine Cycle (SORC) for using the mechanical energy produced during the thermodynamic process to drive a Reverse Osmosis (RO) desalination unit. The developed integrated system is briefly analysed and the specific fresh water cost, as well as the cost of energy is calculated. The economic assessment results are compared with those obtained from a low-temperature SORC-RO and two alternative variants of PhotoVoltaic RO (PV–RO) systems (with and without batteries). It is found that the critical fresh water cost for the system under consideration is 7.48 €/m³ of permeate water and the cost of energy equals to 2.74 €/kWh, when the water cost is slightly higher than the critical one (meaning 8 €/m³). These values are considered satisfactory enough, in comparison to the other autonomous desalination technologies. Additionally, the specific fresh water cost of the developed technology was calculated to be 6.85 €/m³, being very close to the values of the PV–RO systems. The variant of two-stage SORC significantly improves the efficiency and reduces the cost of the already developed prototype system (single-stage low-temperature SORC for RO desalination), because the specific cost is found to be much lower and taking into consideration its reliability, this technology can constitute an alternative desalination method competitive to the PV–RO on the basis of techno-economic feasibility.     

System analysis of a multifunctional PV/T hybrid solar window

The work presented in this article aims to investigate a PV/T hybrid solar window on a system level. A PV/T hybrid is an absorber on which solar cells have been laminated. The solar window is a PV/T hybrid collector with tiltable insulated reflectors integrated into a window. It simultaneously replaces thermal collectors, PV-modules and sunshade. The building integration lowers the total price of the construction since the collector utilizes the frame and the glazing in the window. When it is placed in the window a complex interaction takes place. On the positive side is the reduction of the thermal losses due to the insulated reflectors. On the negative side is the blocking of solar radiation that would otherwise heat the building passively. This limits the performance of the solar window since a photon can only be used once. To investigate the sum of such complex interaction a system analysis has to be performed. In this paper results are presented from such a system analysis showing both benefits and problems with the product. The building system with individual solar energy components, i.e. solar collector and PV modules, of the same size as the solar window, uses 1100 kW h less auxiliary energy than the system with a solar window. However, the solar window system uses 600 kW h less auxiliary energy than a system with no solar collector.     

Potential of geothermal heat exchangers for office building climatisation

Low depth geothermal heat exchangers can be efficiently used as a heat sink for building energy produced during summer. If annual average ambient temperatures are low enough, direct cooling of a building is possible. Alternatively the heat exchangers can replace cooling towers in combination with active cooling systems. In the current work, the performance of vertical and horizontal geothermal heat exchangers implemented in two office building climatisation projects is evaluated.A main result of the performance analysis is that the ground coupled heat exchangers have good coefficients of performance ranging from 13 to 20 as average annual ratios of cold produced to electricity used. Best performance is reached, if the ground cooling system is used to cool down high temperature ambient air. The maximum heat dissipation per meter of ground heat exchanger measured was lower than planned and varied between 8 W m^?1 for the low depth horizontal heat exchangers up to 25 W m^?1 for the vertical heat exchangers.The experimental results were used to validate a numerical simulation model, which was then used to study the influence of soil parameters and inlet temperatures to the ground heat exchangers. The power dissipation varies by ±30% depending on the soil conductivity. The heat conductivity of vertical tube filling material influences performance by another ±30% for different materials. Depending on the inlet temperature level to the ground heat exchanger, the dissipated power increases from 2 W m^?1 for direct cooling applications at 20 °C up to 52 W m^?1 for cooling tower substitutions at 40 °C. This directly influences the cooling costs, which vary between 0.12 and 2.8€ kW h^?1.As a result of the work, planning and operation recommendations for the optimal choice of ground coupled heat exchangers for office building cooling can be given.     

Overall thermal energy and exergy analysis of hybrid photovoltaic thermal array

In this paper, overall thermal energy and exergy analysis has been carried out for different configurations of hybrid photovoltaic thermal (PVT) array. The hybrid PVT array (10.08 m × 2.16 m) is a series and parallel combinations of 36 numbers of PV modules. A one-dimensional transient model for hybrid PVT array has been developed using basic heat transfer equations. On the basis of this transient model, an attempt has been made to select an appropriate hybrid PVT array for different climatic conditions (Bangalore, Jodhpur, New Delhi, and Srinagar) of India. On the basis of high grade energy (i.e. overall exergy gain), case-III has been selected as the most appropriate configuration because overall exergy for case-III is 12.9% higher than case-II. The overall thermal energy and exergy gain for Bangalore is 4.54 × 10⁴ kW h and 2.07 × 10⁴ kW h respectively which is highest in comparison to the other cities.     

Calculation of bright roof-tops for solar PV applications in Dhaka Megacity,Bangladesh

Bangladesh has already been known as the country of power crisis. Although the country's electricity generation capacity is 4275 MW, around 3000–3500 MW of electricity can be generated against the demand of more than 5000 MW. The country's power is being generated mostly with conventional fuel (82% indigenous natural gas, 9% imported oil, 5% coal) and renewable sources (4% hydropower and solar). But recently a remarkable decline of the indigenous gas takes place, which rapidly aggravates electricity generation. Dhaka, the capital as well as prime city of the country with its nearly 14 million populations faces the worst situation due to the shortfall of electricity. Around 1000–1200 MW of electricity is supplied to Dhaka Megacity, while the existing demand is nearly 2000 MW. As a result frequent load shedding takes place and most of the service sectors in the city are interrupted, which has recently created immense dissatisfaction among the city-dwellers. Given the city's power crisis and geophysical situations, applications of either stand-alone or grid connected PV systems would be very effective and pragmatic for power supplement. The conservative calculation of bright roof-tops from the Quickbird Scene 2006 of Dhaka city indicates that the city offers 10.554 km² of bright roof-tops within the Dhaka City Corporation (DCC) ward area (134.282 km²). The application of stand-alone PV systems with 75 Wp solar modules can generate nearly 1000 MW of electrical power, which can substantially meet the city's power demand.     

Solar energy storage in German households: profitability,load changes and flexibility

The developments of battery storage technology together with photovoltaic (PV) roof-top systems might lead to far-reaching changes in the electricity demand structures and flexibility of households. The implications are supposed to affect the generation mix of utilities, distribution grid utilization, and electricity price. Using a techno-economic optimization model of a household system, we endogenously dimension PV system and stationary battery storage (SBS). The results of the reference scenario show positive net present values (NPV) for PV systems of approx. 500–1,800 EUR/kW_p and NPV for SBS of approx. 150–500 EUR/kWh. Main influences are the demand of the households, self-consumption rates, investment costs, and electricity prices. We integrate electric vehicles (EV) with different charging strategies and find increasing NPV of the PV system and self-consumption of approx. 70%. With further declining system prices for solar energy storage and increasing electricity prices, PV systems and SBS can be profitable in Germany from 2018 on even without a guaranteed feed-in tariff or subsidies. Grid utilization substantially changes by households with EV and PV-SBS. We discuss effects of different incentives and electricity tariff options (e. g. load limits or additional demand charges). Concluding, solar energy storage systems will bring substantial changes to electricity sales.     

Technical cost analysis for PEM fuel cells

The present cost of fuel cells estimated at about $200 kW⁻¹ is a major barrier for commercialization and use in automotive applications. In the United States the target costs for fuel cell systems for the year 2004 as formulated by PNGV are $50 kW⁻¹. Lomax et al. have estimated the costs of polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells to be as low as $20 kW⁻¹. These estimates are based on careful consideration of high volume manufacturing processes. Recently, Arthur D. Little (ADL) has estimated the cost of a fuel cell system for transportation at $294 kW⁻¹. This estimate considers a fuel processor and directly related balance of plant components. The difference of the cost estimates results from the vastly different design assumptions. Both of these estimates are based on considering a single high volume of production, 500,000 fuel cells per year. This work builds on these earlier estimates by employing the methods of technical cost modeling and thereby including explicit consideration of design specifications, exogenous factor cost and processing and operational details. The bipolar plate is analyzed as a case study. The sensitivity of the costs to uncertainty in process conditions are explored following the ADL design. It is shown that the PNGV targets can only be achieved with design changes that reduce the quantity of material used. This might necessitate a reduction in efficiency from the assumed 80 mpg.