Prospects of renewable energy - a feasibility study in the Australian context

Given the recent increasing public focus on climate change issues, there is a need for robust, sustainable and climate friendly power transmission and distribution systems that are intelligent, reliable, and green. Current power systems create environmental impacts as well as contributing to global warming due to their utilization of fossil fuels, especially coal, as carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere. In contrast to fossil fuels, renewable energy is starting to be used as the panacea for solving climate change or global warming problems. This paper describes a feasibility study undertaken to investigate the potentialities of renewable energy including the prospective locations in Australia for renewable energy generation, in particular solar and wind energy. Initially, a hybrid model has been developed to investigate the prospects of wind energy for typical Australian region considering production cost, cost of energy, emission production and contribution from renewable energy using the Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable (HOMER), a computer model developed by the USA’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This model also explores suitable places around Australia for wind energy generation using statistical analysis. Subsequently, the usefulness of solar energy in the Australian context and suitable locations for solar energy generation are also investigated using a similar hybrid model. Finally, the model has been developed to investigate the prospects of renewable energy in particular wind and solar energy including specific locations in Australia that would be suitable for both wind and solar energy generation. From simulation analysis it is clearly observed that Australia has enormous potentialities for substantially increased use of renewable energy; a large penetration of renewable energy sources into the national power system would reduce CO₂ emissions significantly, contributing to the reduction of global warming.     

How much can CO2 emissions be reduced if fossil fuel subsidies are removed?

This paper analyzes consumers' price elasticities of demand for fossil fuels, and how a reduction of fossil fuel subsidies can lead to important reduction in CO₂ emissions for various groups of countries that have relatively high fossil fuel subsidies and notably on diesel, including countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). These countries continue to maintain significant levels of fuel subsidies, with Iran and Saudi Arabia being the largest contributors to CO₂ emissions. This paper illustrates that fuel price policy reforms by these countries would be an important instrument for both climate and economic policies. We estimate that a reduction in subsidies to both gasoline and diesel by about 20 US$ cents per liter will lead to significant decreases in CO₂ emissions, both in the MENA region and globally. In Iran, for example, the reductions could be up to 90% and 50% of current emissions generated from diesel and gasoline consumption, respectively, and for Saudi Arabia, approximately 70% and 40%, respectively.     

Regional energy resource development and energy security under CO2 emission constraint in the greater Mekong sub-region countries (GMS)

The paper evaluates effects of energy resource development within the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) on energy supply mix, energy system cost, energy security and environment during 2000–2035. A MARKAL-based integrated energy system model of the five GMS countries was developed to examine benefits of regional energy resource development for meeting the energy demand of these countries. The study found that an unrestricted energy resource development and trade within the region would reduce the total-regional energy systems cost by 18% and would abate the total CO₂ emission by 5% as compared to the base case. All the five countries except Myanmar would benefit from the expansion of regional energy resource integration in terms of lower energy systems costs and better environmental qualities. An imposition of CO₂ emission reduction constraint by 5% on each of the study countries from that of the corresponding emissions under the unrestricted energy resource development in the GMS is found to improve energy security, reduce energy import and fossil fuels dependences and increase volume of power trade within the region. The total energy system cost under the joint CO₂ emission reduction strategy would be less costly than that under the individual emission targets set for each country.     

对我国风电发展战略的冷思考

我国风电发展迅速,计划2010年风电装机容量要达到3500×10^4kW,2020年达到1.5×10^8kW。据IEA预测,2030年世界能源供应仍以化石能源为主,其比重由2006年的80.8%下降到80.4%;2030年世界发电能源结构也以化石能源发电为主,其比重由2006年的74%下降到73%。中国到21世纪中叶传统化石能源仍将居绝对优势地位。因此在可再生能源和新能源的开发过程中,不要急于求成,片面追求能源和电源结构优化不可取。我国未来要依靠核电和新能源发电,但需要通过对其技术经济的进一步研究,才能确定主要靠核电还是风电、太阳能发电或生物质能发电。目前我国风电发展的主要问题是对风电的技术要求起点低,技术路线不对,从国外引进了落后的风电技术。为了我国风电的健康发展,必须加快风电合理利用的研究,包括风电储能和风电直接利用的研究。     

太阳能发电的普及与前景

太阳能发电是摆脱对化石燃料的依赖,减少温室气体排放的重要手段之一。太阳能发电潜力巨大,按照理想状况,2100年世界能源需求的64%可由太阳能提供。2009年世界太阳能发电装机容量达6.43GW,产值380亿美元。同年世界太阳能电池产量达到9.34GW,太阳能电池生产能力约20GW。中国在结晶硅太阳能电池和结晶硅太阳能电池组件的生产上占有绝对优势,2009年底中国7大太阳能电池生产企业年生产能力合计达到4GW。西方跨国化工、石油公司纷纷进入太阳能发电领域,其中日本企业表现尤为突出。太阳能电池可分为结晶系、薄膜系、多接合系、有机系等。目前的主流是原料采用硅的结晶系(单晶硅、多晶硅),市场使用最多的是结晶硅型太阳能电池。薄膜系太阳能电池提高效率和降低成本的余地较大,CIS型市场潜力巨大,有机半导体型、色素增感型实用化尚需时日。降低成本是太阳能发电产业自立的关键。太阳能发电技术开发可分为3个方面:实用化的结晶硅太阳能电池和薄膜太阳能电池等;可大幅降低成本的色素增感、有机薄膜等新型太阳能电池;太阳能发电装置的技术开发评价、市场化评价等。     

Impacts of wind power generation and CO2 emission constraints on the future choice of fuels and technologies in the power sector of Vietnam

This paper examines the impacts of wind power generation on the future choice of fuels and technologies in the power sector of Vietnam. The study covers a time frame of 20 yr from 2005 to 2025 and the MARKAL model has been chosen to be adaptable to this specific task. The results of the study show that on a simple cost base, power generated from wind is not yet competitive with that of fossil fuel-based power plants. In order to make wind energy competitive, either carbon tax or an emission reduction target on the system must be imposed. The presence of wind power would affect not only the change in generation mix from coal-based power plants to wind turbines but also an increase in the capacity of other technologies which emit less carbon dioxide. It thus helps reduce fossil fuel requirement and consequently enhances energy security for the country. The study also shows that wind turbine in Vietnam could be a potential CDM project for annex I party countries.     

Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy

This paper assesses the effects of market-based mechanisms and carbon emission restrictions on the Brazilian energy system by comparing the results of six different energy-economic or integrated assessment models under different scenarios for carbon taxes and abatement targets up to 2050. Results show an increase over time in emissions in the baseline scenarios due, largely, to higher penetration of natural gas and coal. Climate policy scenarios, however, indicate that such a pathway can be avoided. While taxes up to 32 US$/tCO₂e do not significantly reduce emissions, higher taxes (from 50 US$/tCO₂e in 2020 to 16 2US$/tCO₂e in 2050) induce average emission reductions around 60% when compared to the baseline. Emission constraint scenarios yield even lower reductions in most models. Emission reductions are mostly due to lower energy consumption, increased penetration of renewable energy (especially biomass and wind) and of carbon capture and storage technologies for fossil and/or biomass fuels. This paper also provides a discussion of specific issues related to mitigation alternatives in Brazil. The range of mitigation options resulting from the model runs generally falls within the limits found for specific energy sources in the country, although infrastructure investments and technology improvements are needed for the projected mitigation scenarios to achieve actual feasibility.     

Can the future EU ETS support wind energy investments?

This article discusses how the future Emissions Trading Scheme legislation should be designed to allow the European Union to comply with the 20% CO₂ emissions reduction target, while at the same time promoting wind energy investments. We examine whether CO₂ prices could eventually replace the existing support schemes for wind and if they adequately capture its benefits. The analysis also looks at the effectiveness of the clean development and joint implementation mechanisms to trigger wind projects and technology transfer in developing countries. We find out that climate policy is unlikely to provide sufficient incentives to promote wind power, and that other policies should be used to internalise the societal benefits that accrue from deploying this technology: CO₂ prices can only reflect the beneficial impact of wind on climate change but not its contribution to the security of supply or employment creation. A minimum price of around €40/tCO₂ should be attained to maintain present support levels for wind and this excludes income risks and intermediation costs. Finally, CDM improves the return rate of wind energy projects in third countries, but it is the local institutional framework and the long-term stability of the CO₂ markets that matters the most.     

世界主要国家应对气候变化政策分析与启示

美国、欧盟、澳大利亚、日本等主要温室气体排放国家或地区为了应对气候变化,都制定了各自的温室气体排放控制目标。为了实现减排目标,各国（或地区）分别制定了应对全球气候变化的法律法规,建立了应对气候变化的碳排放交易体系,实施了各种气候变化税收政策。各国加大资金投入研究开发减缓气候变化的低碳技术,普遍对可再生能源的开发利用颁布了政策法令并建立气候变化资金。世界各主要国家或地区的应对气候变化的政策对完善我国气候变化政策框架体系有一定的启示。我国应加快建立温室气体统计制度,通过技术进步与财税政策促进节能降耗,大力发展可再生能源,降低对化石能源的依赖,建立应对气候变化专项科学基金和低碳技术基金。     

The achievement,significance and future prospect of China's renewable energy initiative

China's high-speed economic growth and ambitious urbanization depend heavily on the massive consumption of fossil fuel. However, the over-dependence on the depleting fossil fuels causes severe environmental problems, making China the largest energy consumer and the biggest CO₂ emitter in the world. Faced with significant challenges in terms of managing its environment and moving forward with the concept of sustainable economic development, the Chinese government plans to move away from fossil fuels and rely on renewables such as hydropower, wind power, solar power, biomass power and nuclear power. In this paper, the current status of China's renewable energy deployment and the ongoing development projects are summarized and discussed. Most recent developments of major renewable energy sources are clearly reviewed. Additionally, the renewable energy development policies including laws and regulations, economic encouragement, technical research and development are also summarized. This study showcases China's achievements in exploiting its abundant domestic renewable energy sources to meet the future energy demand and reducing carbon emissions. To move toward a low carbon society, technological progress and policy improvements are needed for improving grid access (wind), securing nuclear fuel supplies and managing safety protocols (nuclear), integrating supply chains to achieve indigenous manufacture of technologies across supply chains (solar). Beyond that, a preliminary prediction of the development of China's future renewable energy developments, and proposes targeted countermeasures and suggestions are proposed. The proposal involves developing smart-grid system, investing on renewable energy research, improving the feed-in tariff system and clarifying the subsidy system.     

Analysis of hydrogen production from combined photovoltaics, wind energy and secondary hydroelectricity supply in Brazil

In this work, the technical and economical feasibility for implementing a hypothetical electrolytic hydrogen production plant, powered by electrical energy generated by alternative renewable power sources, wind and solar, and conventional hydroelectricity, was studied mainly trough the analysis of the wind and solar energy potentials for the northeast of Brazil. The hydrogen produced would be exported to countries which do not presently have significant renewable energy sources, but are willing to introduce those sources in their energy system. Hydrogen production was evaluated to be around 56.26 × 10⁶ m³ H₂/yr at a cost of 10.3 US$/kg.     

Techno-economic assessment of hydrogen production from seawater

Population growth and the expansion of industries have increased energy demand and the use of fossil fuels as an energy source, resulting in release of greenhouse gases (GHG) and increased air pollution. Countries are therefore looking for alternatives to fossil fuels for energy generation. Using hydrogen as an energy carrier is one of the most promising alternatives to replace fossil fuels in electricity generation. It is therefore essential to know how hydrogen is produced. Hydrogen can be produced by splitting the water molecules in an electrolyser, using the abondand water resources, which are covering around ? of the Earth's surface. Electrolysers, however, require high-quality water, with conductivity in the range of 0.1–1 μS/cm. In January 2018, there were 184 offshore oil and gas rigs in the North Sea which may be excellent sites for hydrogen production from seawater. The hydrogen production process reported in this paper is based on a proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyser with an input flow rate of 300 L/h. A financially optimal system for producing demineralized water from seawater, with conductivity in the range of 0.1–1 μS/cm as the input for electrolyser, by WAVE (Water Application Value Engine) design software was studied. The costs of producing hydrogen using the optimised system was calculated to be US$3.51/kg H₂. The best option for low-cost power generation, using renewable resources such as photovoltaic (PV) devices, wind turbines, as well as electricity from the grid was assessed, considering the location of the case considered. All calculations were based on assumption of existing cable from the grid to the offshore, meaning that the cost of cables and distribution infrastructure were not considered. Models were created using HOMER Pro (Hybrid Optimisation of Multiple Energy Resources) software to optimise the microgrids and the distributed energy resources, under the assumption of a nominal discount rate, inflation rate, project lifetime, and CO₂ tax in Norway. Eight different scenarios were examined using HOMER Pro, and the main findings being as follows:The cost of producing water with quality required by the electrolyser is low, compared with the cost of electricity for operation of the electrolyser, and therefore has little effect on the total cost of hydrogen production (less than 1%).The optimal solution was shown to be electricity from the grid, which has the lowest levelised cost of energy (LCOE) of the options considered. The hydrogen production cost using electricity from the grid was about US$ 5/kg H₂.Grid based electricity resulted in the lowest hydrogen production cost, even when costs for CO₂ emissions in Norway, that will start to apply in 2025 was considered, being approximately US$7.7/kg H₂.From economical point of view, wind energy was found to be a more economical than solar.     

A new energy paradigm for Turkey: A political risk-inclusive cost analysis for sustainable energy

Implementing sustainable development policies in order to achieve economic and social development while maintaining adequate environmental protection to minimize the damage inflicted by the constantly increasing world population must be a major priority in the 21st century. While the emerging global debate on potential cost-effective responses has produced potential solutions such as cap and trade systems and/or carbon taxes as part of evolving sustainable energy/environmental policies, this kind of intellectual inquiry does not seem to be an issue among Turkish policy-making elites. This is mainly due to their miscalculation that pursuing sustainable energy policies is much more expensive in comparison to the utilization of fossil fuels such as natural gas. Nevertheless, the pegged prices of an energy sector dominated by natural gas are illusive, as both the political risks and environmental damage have not been incorporated into the current cost calculations. This paper evaluates energy policies through a lens of risk management and takes an alternative approach to calculating energy costs by factoring in political risks. This formulation reveals that the cost of traditional fossil-based energy is in fact more expensive than renewable energy. In addition to being environmentally friendly, the paradigm shift towards renewable energy policies would provide Turkey with a significant opportunity to stimulate its economy by being one of the first countries to develop green technologies and as a result this burgeoning sector would prompt job creation as well; mainly due to the externalities.     

Effective policies for renewable energy—the example of China's wind power—lessons for China's photovoltaic power

China, one of the global biggest emitter of CO₂, needs promotion renewable energy to reduce air pollution from its surging fossil fuel use, and to increase its energy supply security. Renewable energy in its infancy needs policy support and market cultivation. Wind power installed capacity has boomed in recent year in China, as a series of effective support policies were adopted. In this paper, I review the main renewable energy policies regarding to China's wind power, including the Wind Power Concession Program, Renewable Energy Law, and a couple of additional laws and regulations. Such policies have effectively reduced the cost of wind power installed capacity, stimulated the localization of wind power manufacture, and driven the company investment in wind power. China is success in wind power installed capacity, however, success in wind-generated electricity has yet achieved, mainly due to the backward grid system and lack of quota system. The paper ends with the recommended best practice of the China's wind power installed capacity might be transferable to China's photovoltaic power generation.     

Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

In this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO₂ emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010–2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO₂ price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO₂ price leverages additional investments in hydropower. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO₂ price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts an 11.3% reduction. The main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO₂ storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. In terms of technology pathways, the models agree that fossil fuels, in particular natural gas, will remain an important part of the electricity mix in the core baseline scenario. According to the models there is agreement that the introduction of a carbon price will lead to a decline in absolute and relative shares of aggregate fossil fuel generation. However, predictions vary as to the extent to which coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role.     

Economic viability and production capacity of wind generated renewable hydrogen

Generally, wind to power conversion is calculated by assuming the quality of wind as measured with a Weibull probability distribution at wind speed during power generation. We build on this method by modifying the Weibull distributions to reflect the actual range of wind speeds and wind energy density. This was combined with log law that modifies wind speed based on the height from the ground, to derive the wind power potential at windy sites. The study also provides the Levelized cost of renewable energy and hydrogen conversion capacity at the proposed sites. We have also electrolyzed the wind-generated electricity to measure the production capacity of renewable hydrogen. We found that all the sites considered are commercially viable for hydrogen production from wind-generated electricity. Wind generated electricity cost varies from $0.0844 to $0.0864 kW h, and the supply cost of renewable hydrogen is $5.30 to $ 5.80/kg-H₂. Based on the findings, we propose a policy on renewable hydrogen fueled vehicles so that the consumption of fossil fuels could be reduced. This paper shall serve as a complete feasibility study on renewable hydrogen production and utilization.     

Abatement costs of CO2 emissions in the Brazilian oil refining sector

This study aims at estimating the abatement costs of CO₂ emissions of the Brazilian oil refining sector. For greenfield refineries that will be built until 2030, mitigation options include the modification of refining schemes and efficiency gains in processing units. For existing refineries and those already under construction, only mitigation options based on efficiency gains in processing units are evaluated. The abatement cost of each mitigation option was determined on the basis of incremental costs compared with a reference scenario. Two discount rates were applied: one adopted by the Brazil’s government official long term plan (8% p.a.), and another typically adopted by the private oil sector (15% p.a.). Findings indicate that refineries face high abatement costs. The cost of changing the processing scheme of greenfield plants reaches US$100/tCO₂ at 15% p.a. discount rate. Even at 8% p.a. discount rate the abatement cost is higher than US$50/tCO₂. The most promising alternative is thermal energy management, whose abatement cost equals US$20/tCO₂ at 8% p.a. discount rate. However, private investors perceive this option at US$80/tCO₂, which is still high. This difference in cost indicates the need for public policies for promoting carbon mitigation measures in Brazilian oil refineries.     

A review on global wind energy policy

With the increasing negative effects of fossil fuel combustion on the environment in addition to limited stock of fossil fuel have forced many countries to inquire into and change to environmentally friendly alternatives that are renewable to sustain the increasing energy demand. Energy policy plays a vital role to mitigate the impacts of global warming and crisis of energy availability. This paper explores the wind energy industry from the point of view of the wind energy policy. It is noticed that energy policy could help increasing wind power generation as well as stimulating the energy industry. It may be stated that without specific energy policy, a country would not be able to solve the acute problems like reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission, scarcity of energy, etc. This paper discussed the existing successful energy policies for few selected countries. Based on literatures, it has been found that FIT, RPS, incentives, pricing law and Quota system are the most useful energy policies practiced by many countries around the world. Then, status of wind energy policy for Malaysia was investigated and compared with few selected countries around the world.     

What might be the energy demand and energy mix to reconcile the world’s pursuit of welfare and happiness with the necessity to preserve the integrity of the biosphere?

In today’s global energy mix with a share of 80% fossil energy, the growth of the world population and energy demand will lead to a conflict between stable ecosystems and global welfare. The inspection of social indexes of welfare and happiness leads to the following energy plan: high-income countries with a current annual energy demand of up to 8 tonnes of oil equivalent per capita (toe pc) have to reduce their demand to 2 toe pc, which should be sufficient without cutback in welfare. Vice versa, low-income countries increase their demand until 2 toe pc are reached. Compared to today this scenario (2 toe pc, 9 billion people by 2050) leads to an increase of the ecological footprint from today 1.3 to 2 planet Earths in today’s technologies. The only solution to provide 2 toe pc without damaging the biosphere is a reduction of the CO₂ footprint with a current share of 50%. A complete shift from fossil fuels to renewables would half the ecological footprint as needed for the desired footprint of one planet Earth. To reach this goal, one or more forms of solar power and/or nuclear power are needed, as the potential of non-solar renewables is too small.     

Wind energy for the 1990s and beyond

Electrical power must be available to the consumer in any amount upon demand. Conventional methods of power generation, such as the burning of fossil fuels, hydroelectric plants, and nuclear power plants, have considerable shortcomings. Governmental regulations have increased in quantity and have raised the already rigid standards of producing electric power without further damage to the environment. Electrical power produced by wind energy conversion systems are undergoing extensive research and revitalization as a viable solution to clean air power generation. The basic challenge to scientists and engineers is to develop wind energy conversion systems that produce adequate amounts of power, but at a cost comparable to present conventional methods. This article discusses the background and impact of the modern wind energy conversion system on future power generation.