Is wartime mobilisation a suitable policy model for rapid national climate mitigation?

Climate science suggests that, to have a high probability of limiting global warming to an average temperature increase of 2 °C, global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2020 and be reduced to close to zero by 2040. However, the current trend is heading towards at least 4 °C by 2100 and little effective action is being taken. This paper commences the process of developing contingency plans for a scenario in which a sudden major global climate impact galvanises governments to implement emergency climate mitigation targets and programs. Climate activists assert that rapid mitigation is feasible, invoking the scale and scope of wartime mobilisation strategies. This paper draws upon historical accounts of social, technological and economic restructurings in several countries during World War 2 in order to investigate potential applications of wartime experience to radical, rigorous and rapid climate mitigation strategies. We focus on the energy sector, the biggest single contributor to global climate change, in developed and rapidly developing countries. We find that, while wartime experience suggests some potential strategies for rapid climate mitigation in the areas of finance and labour, it also has severe limitations, resulting from its lack of democratic processes.     

Is teamwork the smart solution?

One of the most formidable tasks facing humanity at the moment is how to solve the problems associated with energy supply and utilization. The issues are complex, to be sure, and they're compounded by seemingly conflicting objectives involving cost, sustainability, reliability, environmental soundness, free markets, and an energy supply that is accessible to all--anytime. Because there?s special interest in enhancing the sustainability of a modern lifestyle, one approach to the problem is to use renewable resources--mainly solar and wind--to power the world economy. Some renewable resources have the added benefit of low environmental impact, especially in greenhouse gas production. There's also great interest in restructured energy and power markets that are called free or liberalized in some parts of the world and deregulated in the United States. The deregulation of the electric power industry in many venues has resulted in a new science and engineering of power marketing. There are complex basic challenges in solving the problems that are related to an unfettered power market that results in an environmentally sound production of electric power and also a reliable and low-cost solution.     

What is the fuel of the future? Prospects under the Clean Power Plan

EPA proposed the Clean Power Plan (CPP) to regulate CO₂ emissions from existing power plants. The CPP establishes state-by-state emission rate goals for affected fossil units, largely existing coal and natural gas combined cycle generators. A key element of the proposal is its flexibility mechanisms, including the ability of states to trade obligations with other states and to convert to mass-based targets. How states decide to take advantage of this flexibility may have significant impacts on fuel markets of the future. This analysis uses the DIEM economy/electricity model to examine the consequences of a range of these alternative choices for fuel demands across the United States. Key findings for the June 2014 proposal include: the CPP tends to continue an ongoing shift in fuel consumption by electricity generators from coal to natural gas, a rate-based approach to CPP leads to more gas use in the early years than a mass-based approach but the effect disappears over time as new more-efficient gas units are constructed, and there may be substantial regional variation and stresses in fuel markets, especially over the next five years.     

Is the energy intensity a less useful indicator than the carbon factor in the study of climate change?

We show that the energy intensity (energy/GDP) varies over a wider range and has had a greater impact on energy-related carbon emissions than the carbon factor (carbon/energy). Thus, in contrast to what is mentioned in Mielnik and Goldemberg (Energy Policy 27(5)(1999) 307–308) the energy intensity is an indicator which is as useful as, if not more useful than, the carbon factor to assess the evolution patterns of industrialized and developing countries regarding climate change. Some related data and study results are presented.     

Is the Kenyan electricity regulatory board autonomous?

Results of research work into electric power sector reforms in Kenya spanning over a period of about 30 years are presented in this article. Of particular interest is the autonomy or independence of the Electricity Regulatory Board (ERB) of Kenya, established in 1998 through a new electricity law, the Electric Power Act (EPA), Number 11 of 1997. The autonomy of the ERB is reviewed in depth, and its ability to ensure that the electricity industry provides services for the poor assessed. The following are considered as key factors underpinning the degree of autonomy that ERB can enjoy:

• •Legal status of ERB as provided for under the EPA and whether there were any other statutes impacting on its autonomy.
• •Chain of Command, particularly in relation to the role of the Kenyan Government institutions which may have some links to the power sector.
• •Mode of appointment of ERB members or directors including its Chairman.
• •Range and relevance of representation of stakeholders in the ERB, with special emphasis on the representation of the poor.
• •Adequacy of funding for the ERB.
• •Provisions for the process of appeal against the Board's decisions.

     

Is iridium demand a potential bottleneck in the realization of large-scale PEM water electrolysis?

Proton exchange membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE) is a key technology for future sustainable energy systems. Proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis cells use iridium, one of the scarcest elements on earth, as catalyst for the oxygen evolution reaction. In the present study, the expected iridium demand and potential bottlenecks in the realization of PEMWE for hydrogen production in the targeted GW a^?1 scale are assessed in a model built on three pillars: (i) an in-depth analysis of iridium reserves and mine production, (ii) technical prospects for the optimization of PEM water electrolyzers, and (iii) PEMWE installation rates for a market ramp-up and maturation model covering 50 years. As a main result, two necessary preconditions have been identified to meet the immense future iridium demand: first, the dramatic reduction of iridium catalyst loading in PEM electrolysis cells and second, the development of a recycling infrastructure for iridium catalysts with technical end-of-life recycling rates of at least 90%.     

Is the energy-led growth hypothesis valid? New evidence from a sample of 85 countries

The energy-growth literature contains a large number of discussions on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. The central debate focuses on whether energy consumption contributes or not to economic growth since it has direct implications for the formulation of strategic policies. Nevertheless, current studies cannot provide a conclusive suggestion due to mixed causality results. This inconclusive evidence is potentially attributed to model specifications and the stage of economic development of the countries under investigation. Hence, this study attempts to empirically re-investigate the validity of the energy-led growth hypothesis using a different model specification and different stages of economic development for 85 selected countries around the globe. Overall, although the causality results are mixed among countries, we do find a systematic pattern. In particular, Granger causality models with three and four variables are more likely to support the hypothesis compared to their counterparts that contain only two variables. In addition, both developed and developing countries are more likely to support the energy-led growth hypothesis compared to the less developed or low income countries. Therefore, causality results are very sensitive to the choice of the model specification along with the stages of economic development. Finally, energy conservation policies should only focus on low income countries as these policies may not retard the process of economic growth.     

Is there a price premium for energy efficiency labels? Evidence from the Introduction of a Label in Korea

This study examines the price premium from Korea's Energy Efficiency Grade Label. The Korean government recently began energy certification of televisions, providing a setting to analyze a possible price effect of the new label. Hedonic regression results seem to show that a price premium exists for products with the Energy Efficiency Grade Label. However, potential unobserved heterogeneity is a concern. Difference-in-difference and fixed-effects models are used to capture the net effect of the label by controlling for time and product differences. The results suggest that any price premium does not result from the energy efficiency label itself. Instead, energy-efficient products already had higher prices before the introduction of the energy efficiency label. The finding turns our attention to the importance of careful design of labeling programs.     

Is a fully-developed and non-isothermal flow possible in a vertical pipe?

The results of a linear-stability analysis of the fully-developed flow in a heated vertical pipe are presented. They confirm the experimental observations that flow in a heated vertical pipe is supercritically unstable. The bifurcated new equilibrium laminar flow is likely to be a double spiral flow. Mixing induced by this spiral flow can cause a substantial increase in the heat-transfer rate and even delay transition to turbulence, as has been observed experimentally.     

Financing the UK power sector: Is the money available?

The UK power generation sector faces a major new round of investment: the coincidence of asset retiring and ambitious goals for decarbonisation is not unique, but is particularly acute in the UK. The UK government has put in place a raft of new policies that seek to promote new, low carbon investment and ensure security of supply. The traditional channel for financing the sector has been through large utility companies, but this now looks challenging for various reasons. The UK therefore offers an interesting case study on several counts; the scale of the challenge, effectiveness of new policies, and the availability of alternative finance. We find that the link between the finance sector and the electricity sector is not ‘broken’, but the flow of money to the sector is threatened by the current weakness of the utilities’ business model. This paper compares estimates of the scale of investment required in the UK with historical investment rates. It summarises contemporary finance industry views of conditions and trends, and potential policy interventions that might be needed to bridge the investment gap. The potential for channelling institutional investor funds directly into energy assets is reviewed.     

Natural convection in a shallow porous cavity—the Brinkman model

The natural convection in a shallow porous rectangular cavity with differentially heated sidewalls is examined using the Brinkman model. The heat transfer rate through the cavity is determined in terms of a Nusselt number, in the limit of vanishingly small aspect ratio. Two types of boundary conditions are considered. Case I deals with a cavity with all rigid boundaries so that the no-slip boundary conditions can be imposed. In case II, the cavity has a free upper surface. The present analysis shows that the Brinkman model and Darcy's law give virtually the same result for the heat transfer rate when the Darcy number, based on the depth of the cavity, is less than the order of 10⁻⁴. We also find that the presence of a free surface can significantly increase the heat transfer rate through the cavity, especially when the permeability of the medium is high.     

Does a large coal particle in a hot fluidised bed lose its volatile content according to the shrinking core model?

Near-spherical particles (diameter ∼14 mm) of six different coals (ranging in rank from an anthracite to a lignite) were immersed in turn in an electrically heated bed of sand fluidised by nitrogen. Such a bubbling fluidised bed (U/Umf=3.0) was held at a fixed temperature between 750 and 950 °C. A coal particle in such a situation decomposes in the overall reaction:

coal→volatile matter+char,     

Is the recent low oil price attributable to the shale revolution?

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that approximately 52% of total U.S. crude oil was produced from shale oil resources in 2015. We examine whether the recent low crude oil price is attributable to this shale revolution in the U.S., using a SVAR model with structural breaks. Our results reveal that U.S. supply shocks are important drivers of real oil price and, for example, explain approximately a quarter of the 73% decline between June 2014 and February 2016. Failure to consider statistically significant structural changes results in underestimating the role played by global supply shocks, while overestimating the role of the demand shocks.     

Forecasting spot oil price in a dynamic model averaging framework — Have the determinants changed over time?

This paper is aimed on the analysis of monthly spot oil prices (WTI) between 1986 and 2015. The methodology is based on Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) and Dynamic Model Selection (DMS) framework. The important feature of DMA method is an allowance for both time-varying coefficients and large state space model (i.e., the set of oil price determinants can change in time). Within this framework it was explicitly shown how the significance of oil price determinants vary in time. These determinants itself were chosen with respect to some previous studies. Contrary to the currently reported DMA applications in some other fields, no significant evidence was found that DMA is superior over, for example, ARIMA model. However, DMA could also not been rejected as a significantly worse model due to certain statistical tests. The performed DMA analysis was checked for robustness on various model parameters and for certain computational issues.It was found, for example, that in the context of the 2008 oil price peak exchange rates and stock markets were important oil price drivers, whereas oil production or oil import were just minor determinants. Some role of the change in inventories was found, but not greater than the one in 1991. The role of China's economy as an oil price driver in 2008 was found to be relatively smaller than in other time periods. Also, the robustness of these findings was discussed.     

Is there a space for additional renewable energy in the Norwegian power system? Potential for reduced global emission?

This paper presents the results of a Norwegian power system analysis. An energy system analysis model based on linear programming is used for modelling and optimisation. The analyses cover a number of scenarios where the studied system is subjected to changes by introducing other renewable energy sources, energy conservation measures and measures to promote renewable energy. The study shows that due to a combination of cheap hydropower and high investment costs, it is quite difficult for new generation units to be profitable. This is also true during periods of low precipitation where the system tends to survive on imported power instead of investing in new generation units. However, this does not apply to energy conservation measures that easily enter the system. On the other hand, biomass based CHP, wind power and wave power could be viable if measures are introduced to promote their use. Most of the scenarios show a high potential for reducing global emissions.     

Is there a transition to flaming in reverse smolder waves?

We previously considered the problem of forward smolder (Aldushin et al., 2006) [13] and showed, both analytically and numerically, that smolder waves propagating in porous samples of length L do (do not) exhibit a transition to flaming according as L exceeds (does not exceed) a critical length L_F, which we termed the flaming length. L_F, a concept which we introduced, is the distance that a steadily propagating smolder wave must travel inside the porous sample before the char oxidation reaction, which hardly affects the characteristics of the smolder wave itself, spontaneously self-accelerates, resulting in an eruption of the temperature in the smolder front. We plotted L_F as a function of the incoming gas influx g₀, based on both analytical and numerical considerations, and found it to be a U shaped curve. The temperature which was achieved after self-acceleration was approximately 800 K, depending on parameters, which is in the range where the transition to flaming has been observed to occur.It is generally believed that reverse smolder waves are unable to spontaneously burst into flaming. This is based on certain seemingly reasonable physical arguments and on experimental observations. However, we note that the experiments were generally performed on relatively short samples, perhaps too short to allow transition. Thus, there may be reason to revisit this view. We therefore consider the problem of reverse smolder, employing the same model which includes three step kinetics (fuel oxidation, pyrolysis, and char oxidation), which we previously considered in the forward smolder configuration (Aldushin et al., 2006) [13]. We show that under certain conditions self-acceleration of the char oxidation reaction may also occur in the reverse smolder configuration, leading to a rapid temperature rise, similar to what we observed for forward smoldering. Employing the same model (except for the boundary conditions, to reflect the reverse, rather than forward configuration), and the same set of kinetic and physical parameters employed in (Aldushin et al., 2006) [13], we find that there is again a flaming distance L_F, that a plot of L_F vs. g₀ exhibits a portion of a U shaped curve and that upon self-ignition, the temperature in the product region behind the smolder front could rise from 600 K in the reaction zone to a value as high as about 825 K, depending on parameters. In fact, we find that the temperatures to which the smolder front rises are comparable to those for forward smolder. Whether or not this temperature rise actually triggers the gaseous reactions leading to flaming ultimately will be settled to everyone’s satisfaction by experiments not yet performed, i.e., in sufficiently long samples. If the temperature rise is not sufficient to trigger a transition to flaming, then our results indicate the existence of a high-temperature smolder front following the low-temperature smolder front, provided that the sample length is sufficiently large, i.e., exceeds a critical value that depend on the incoming gas flux and the kinetic characteristics, to allow sufficient time for the transition to occur. For subcritical sample lengths the char oxidation reaction has essentially no effect on the characteristics of the smolder wave ignited by an igniter at temperature T_ign close to the smolder temperature T_b. However, if T_ign is above a certain critical value, we see either a rapid high-temperature smolder wave driven by the char oxidation reaction or a transition to flaming.We also consider the problem of extinction of reverse smolder waves. Specifically, we show that extinction occurs in the (solid) fuel deficient mode of smolder wave propagation. The smolder wave velocity achieves a maximum for gas fluxes near a certain critical value, in accord with experimental observations (Torero et al., 1993) [4]. For fluxes near the extinction limit we find oscillatory propagation of the smolder wave.     

Is there a water–energy nexus in electricity generation? Long-term scenarios for the western United States

Water is required for energy supply, and energy is required for water supply, creating problems as demand for both resources grows. We analyze this “water–energy nexus” as it affects long-run electricity planning in the western United States. We develop four scenarios assuming: no new constraints; limits on carbon emissions; limits on water use; and combined carbon and water limits.We evaluate these scenarios through 2100 under a range of carbon and water prices. The carbon-reducing scenarios become cost-effective at carbon prices of about $50–$70 per ton of CO₂, moderately high but plausible within the century. In contrast, the water-conserving scenarios are not cost-effective until water prices reach thousands of dollars per acre-foot, well beyond foreseeable levels. This is due in part to the modest available water savings: our most and least water-intensive scenarios differ by less than 1% of the region's water consumption.Under our assumptions, Western electricity generation could be reshaped by the cost of carbon emissions, but not by the cost of water, over the course of this century. Both climate change and water scarcity are of critical importance, but only in the former is electricity generation central to the problem and its solutions.     

Has the Kyoto Protocol got a future without the USA?

The Kyoto Protocol commits (subject to ratification) 39 advanced industrialised states including the US to cutting emissions of greenhouse gases by an average of 5.2% (based on 1990 levels) by the period 2008–2012. Article 25 of the Protocol provides that ratification will not take place until 55 Parties to the Convention, in turn accounting for 55% of the total 1990 carbon dioxide emissions have individually ratified the treaty. The US has recently resigned from that commitment. Peter Cassidy and Mark Raymont, from international law firm Mason's, consider the future prospects for the implementation of Kyoto, the attempts by the EU to persuade the US to reconsider its position and the potential impact if such attempts fail.     

Decarbonising power generation in China—Is the answer blowing in the wind?

This paper examines the current situation of wind industry development, evaluates the potentials of GHG mitigation and identifies the key determinants of scaling up wind power deployment in China. China has doubled its wind capacity every year for the past 4 years, the total installed capacity reached 12 Gigawatts (GW) and surpassed the 10-GW target 2 years ahead of schedule in the national plan for renewable energy development [38], [71], [87],and would reach 100–120 GW by 2020 according to the government’s new energy plan. It may become the biggest wind power generation and wind turbines manufacturing country of the world in the next years if the abundant wind resources and enormous domestic market can be harnessed with appropriate policies and efficient technology. The recent positive move in vigorous development of wind power in China implies that the total installed capacity will far exceed the targets of the government’s 2007 renewable energy plan. However, the prosperous Chinese wind market has also revealed some worrisome signals and weakness [28], [58], such as low capacity factor and frequent outage of wind farms, inadequate grid infrastructure, long distance transmission, low quality of turbines, adverse price bidding, nepotism in wind farm developer selection process and regulatory uncertainty and policy inconsistency which all conspire to hinder effective power generation in the massively new installed wind capacities. A coherent policy framework is required for creating enabling environment for accelerating wind energy penetration and state-of-art technology deployment in the country. It is argued that institutional, financial and technical capacity will need to be cemented to exploit the huge potentials of wind resources to meet the rapidly growing demand for electricity in China in the coming decades with minimised environmental implications.     

Is inexpensive natural gas hindering the grid energy storage industry?

Grid energy storage is a maturing technology and forecasts of the industry's growth have been promising. However, recent years have realized little growth in actual deployments of grid-level storage and several high-profile storage companies and projects have failed. We hypothesize that falling natural gas prices have significantly reduced the potential profit from many U.S. energy storage projects since 2009 and quantify that effect. We use engineering–economic models to calculate the monthly revenue to energy storage devices providing frequency regulation and energy arbitrage in several electricity markets and compare that revenue to prevailing natural gas prices. We find that flywheel devices providing frequency regulation were profitable in months when natural gas prices were above $7/mcf, but face difficulties at current prices (around $4/mcf). For energy arbitrage alone, we find that the breakeven capital cost for large-scale storage was around $300/kWh in several key locations in 2004–2008, but is around $100/kWh in the same locations today. Though cost and performance improvements have been continually decreasing the effective cost of energy services from storage, fundamental market signals indicating the need for energy storage are at or near 10-year lows for both energy arbitrage and frequency regulation.